Australian Broker Call
September 20, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 11:10 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BXB - | BRAMBLES | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
| SM1 - | SYNLAIT MILK | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank | ||
| TPM - | TPG TELECOM | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie believes the company is well-positioned to capitalise on structural growth and has opportunities to expand into other products and markets.
Recent industry feedback continues to point to strengthening underlying demand, with the company benefiting from improved product availability.
Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and increases the target to NZ$6.35 from NZ$5.90.
Current Price is $5.36. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $6.00, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.21 cents and EPS of 24.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 30.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of -39.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley removes the SHWB business contribution from estimates. This results in earnings per share moving to the mid-range of the company's FY18 guidance.
Flexibility in the balance sheet remains a key source of upside options, should the company continue to pursue value accretive M&A.
Rating is Overweight, as the valuation is considered undemanding. Target is reduced to $23.00 from $24.50. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.87 Difference: $1.13
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.62 cents and EPS of 124.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 171.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 63.08 cents and EPS of 147.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.5, implying annual growth of -19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -49.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BXB as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
While there are challenges ahead, Credit Suisse believes much of the downside risk is now priced into the shares. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is $8.90.
Competition in the US remains of concern to the broker, and there are not yet signs the whitewood pallet market is improving. While underlying demand for consumer staples is weak, the comparables are expected to get easier in November.
Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.32, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.11 cents and EPS of 52.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.11 cents and EPS of 56.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -51.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.30 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of -50.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 31.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CSL as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
Macquarie initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $146 target. The broker expects 57% growth in earnings per share to FY20.
Hereditary angioedema and haemophilia represent the most significant opportunities and risks for the business, according to the broker.
While current multiples may appear elevated relative to historical averages, the broker believes this is justified, based on the quality and quantum of earnings growth expected.
Target price is $146.00 Current Price is $130.95 Difference: $15.05
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $137.77, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 202.92 cents and EPS of 450.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 187.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 241.29 cents and EPS of 536.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 498.5, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett is confident with its estimates for 18% profit growth in FY18. Industry feedback suggests the company has had a solid start to the year as immunoglobulins supply has been tight.
As well, the near-record levels of influenza reported in Australia this winter should support a good early uptake of vaccines in the much larger US and European markets.
Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $144 from $135.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $144.00 Current Price is $130.95 Difference: $13.05
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $137.77, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 195.82 cents and EPS of 459.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 187.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 226.05 cents and EPS of 532.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 498.5, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -
The company's update on operations does not affect forecasts in a significant way although Morgans finds there is now more revaluation upside potential in the current portfolio. A greater proportion of the portfolio is now in the monetisation phase.
The broker lifts its target to $0.78 from $0.77 and retains an Add rating.
Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.03
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -
After the company hosted a briefing on the outlook for its Americas division, and continuing on from Macquarie's tour of urban development projects in Asia, the added detail on offshore business units increases confidence in FY19 earnings as more capital is employed in these markets.
Capital employed in offshore geographies is around 30% of group and an improvement in offshore returns towards of 10%, combined with increasing capital, is expected to help drive earnings in FY19 and beyond.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target is $18.09.
Target price is $18.09 Current Price is $17.81 Difference: $0.28
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.40, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 69.60 cents and EPS of 139.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.4, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 79.40 cents and EPS of 159.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NHC as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were softer than Credit Suisse expected. Continued strong coal prices will mean robust cash is generated well into FY18.
Stage II life extension beyond FY18 may provide upside but the broker is unsure how long the company can continue doing this, especially if/when thermal coal prices retreat.
The investment case still hinges on the development of Acland stage III, in the broker's opinion. Neutral retained. Target is $1.60.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 22.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -34.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -
FY17 results were lower than Macquarie anticipated because of higher-than-expected costs. Despite this, cash flows were strong and the broker expects this situation to continue.
With spot coal prices hovering in the US$90-100/t range, the broker envisages strong potential for first half earnings.
Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $2.80 from $2.20.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.95
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -34.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NHC as Hold (3) -
Morgans was impressed with the FY17 net operating cash flow, 7-9% ahead of forecasts. The company has confirmed it is working with regulators towards mitigating the concerns of the Land Court that hinder the approval of the Acland stage III.
Morgans struggles to find a political imperative for the state government, as an election and judicial review are pending, and conservatively assumes a worse case of Acland's closure in FY20.
While tempted to take a positive view during the current spike in pessimism, the broker believes the negative sentiment is likely to be prolonged. Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $1.79 from $1.66.
Target price is $1.79 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -34.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -65.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Underweight (5) -
Australian retail trading remains challenging and Morgan Stanley observes working capital deterioration is hampering operating cash flow. There is ongoing key customer risk as negotiations with the My Chemist/Chemist Warehouse continue.
The company is undergoing a material ramp up in capital expenditure for the new distribution centre but, given the fixed cost nature of the business, the broker envisages the return profile of these investments is highly dependent on the continuity of the relationship with My Chemist/Chemist Warehouse.
Underweight rating. Target is raised to $0.79 from $0.77. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of 7.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SM1 SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED
Dairy
Overnight Price: $5.06
Credit Suisse rates SM1 as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
FY17 forecasts were delivered and the company has upgraded FY18 guidance slightly. Credit Suisse observes the company is in a stronger place than it was a year ago, but still subject to the same risks.
With the share price increasing significantly over the last year, Credit Suisse believes the market is focused more on the medium-term prospects rather than on the broader risks to the investment case.
Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on the perception of risk/reward. Target increases to NZ$4.74 from NZ$4.22.
Current Price is $5.06. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SM1 as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Deutsche Bank saw a "solid" FY17 performance while guidance implies a "material step up" in profit for the year ahead. The majority of the good news story can be traced back to canned infant formula, a2 Milk ((A2M)) in particular.
Alas, the analysts also believe most of the good news is already in the price, hence their downgrade to Hold from Buy. Price target gains 5% to NZ$5.80.
Current Price is $5.06. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SM1 as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's estimates. FY17 infant formula volumes were up 17%. The broker observes the stock has had a strong run up on the back of a2 Milk's ((A2M)) strength in sales, which has underpinned its volumes.
Long-term margins remain a concern for the broker, with the current margin well above the market at present. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to NZ$5.29 from NZ$3.75.
Current Price is $5.06. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SYR as Neutral (3) -
The company has announced a $110m capital raising. The placements will be fully underwritten and occur as an institutional placement and pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer.
The funds raised will be used to commence production and ramp up of Balama. Macquarie believes the medium-term outlook for cash flow is strong but retains a cautious view for the short term given the ramp-up risk at Balama and uncertain pricing outlook.
Neutral retained. Target is raised to $3.70 from $3.50.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has announced a capital raising of US$85m to help fund the completion of Balama. Morgan Stanley had expected additional capital to be raised but was expecting the shortfall to be met through a working capital facility for US$50m.
Hence, the size of this additional raising is a surprise. The broker is disappointed with another round of equity being raised as this will dilute current shareholdings.
Equal-weight retained. Target is $2.90. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates TPM as Neutral (3) -
Citi observes the company has provided first-ever guidance for a decline in group operating earnings, as the impact of the NBN starts to hit.
While FY17 results beat guidance and were largely in line with expectations, the broker believes the outlook for capital expenditure and earnings will drive the stock from here.
The company is about to go through a transforming outlay of capital expenditure of over $2bn in the next three years with revenue from the mobile networks unlikely to flow prior to FY20.
Citi retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $6.05 from $6.70.
Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $0.56
If TPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 37.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates TPM as Underperform (5) -
FY17 results were ahead of Credit Suisse. The broker trims FY18 forecasts by -1.0% to reflect company guidance for FY18 EBITDA in the range of $800-815m.
The broker notes subscriber growth is weak and the company continues to lose market share. Underperform retained. Target reduced to $5.00 from $5.25.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 41.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TPM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
TPG's FY17 result showed good operational execution, Deutsche Bank suggests, providing for a guidance beat. But that's where the good news ends.
FY18 guidance was weaker than expected. Deutsche believes the stock could offer longer term appeal if it can deliver on its Aust and Singapore mobile plans but ahead of that the company faces two years of declining earnings growth and a lower dividend to preserve capital for investment.
The broker now expects a slower rate of FTTB subscriber growth and higher NBN and electricity costs. Target slashed to $5.80 from $8.20. Downgrade to Hold.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $0.31
If TPM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TPM as Neutral (3) -
The company reported FY17 operating earnings were up 7.7% and ahead of guidance. Macquarie observes the headwinds from the NBN in the underlying consumer business will pressure earnings in FY18 by around -$60m and by a greater amount in FY19.
The company is making some positive progress on the rolling out of its mobile strategy and the broker is encouraged at this early stage. Neutral retained. Target is $6.15.
Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $0.66
If TPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TPM as Overweight (1) -
The outlook for FY18 earnings continues to involve challenges from NBN-related margin pressures and intense competition. Morgan Stanley finds there is value opportunity in the investment in mobiles and this is under-rated by the market.
The broker believes the re-affirmation of capital expenditure and timing on mobiles, new bank lines for funding and a reduction in the distribution to contribute to funding all make financial and strategic sense.
Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is $7.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $1.51
If TPM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TPM as Reduce (5) -
FY17 underlying operating earnings were a slight beat on Morgans estimates. The company has flagged a move to a more aggressive accounting treatment in capitalising planned mobile expenses.
Morgans expects expenditure to be double operating cash flow in FY18 and substantially higher in the next few years as a mobile business is built out in Australia and Singapore.
This all leads the broker to retain a Reduce rating. Target is reduced to $4.30 from $4.39.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TPM as Lighten (4) -
FY17 underlying operating earnings were better than Ord Minnett forecast. The elimination of the dividend and increasing debt ceiling have also helped alleviate concerns about another capital raising.
However, as the company is entering an investment phase and faces NBN pressures, the broker envisages no positive catalysts for the next 6-12 months.
Lighten retained. Target is raised to $4.90 from $4.80.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| A2M - | THE A2 MILK CO | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.36 |
| ABP - | ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.72 |
| ANN - | ANSELL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $21.87 |
| BWP - | BWP TRUST | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.96 |
| BXB - | BRAMBLES | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.00 |
| CMW - | CROMWELL PROPERTY | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.98 |
| CQR - | CHARTER HALL RETAIL | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.94 |
| CSL - | CSL | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $130.95 |
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $130.95 | ||
| FDV - | FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.75 |
| LLC - | LEND LEASE CORP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.81 |
| NHC - | NEW HOPE CORP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.85 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.85 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.85 | ||
| SCP - | SHOPPING CENTRES AUS | Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.28 |
| SIG - | SIGMA HEALTHCARE | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.84 |
| SM1 - | SYNLAIT MILK | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.06 |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.06 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.06 | ||
| SYR - | SYRAH RESOURCES | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.80 |
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.80 | ||
| TPM - | TPG TELECOM | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.49 |
| Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.49 | ||
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.49 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.49 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.49 | ||
| Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.49 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.49 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 7 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 10 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 4 |
Wednesday 20 September 2017
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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