Australian Broker Call
September 05, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 01:16 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AJA - | ASTRO JAPAN PROP | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| AQG - | ALACER GOLD | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| ILU - | ILUKA RESOURCES | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
Citi rates AAD as Sell (5) -
Citi analysts, not in the fan camp for quite a while, have now adopted the view Hurricane Harvey might have a sustained negative impact on the sales of Main Event’s five Houston centres.
While insurance cover might help in the short term, the analysts highlight the affected Houston centres represent 18% of Main Event’s constant centre set and 13% of total centres.
In addition, Citi draws a parallel with Hurricane Katrina in 2005; it had an adverse impact on New Orleans, with its population halving the following year. Updating the modeling triggers further reductions to FY18-FY19 EPS forecasts by -6% to -9%. Target $1.30. Sell.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 97.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AJA as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
The company has agreed with hedge fund Blackstone to acquire its $1.1bn Japanese portfolio, consisting mostly of greater Tokyo B-grade retail and office assets. Ord Minnett expects the vote to be approved by unit holders on September 13.
Ord Minnett's suspects a superior alternative proposal is highly unlikely. As the stock is now trading at the present value of the proposed transaction price, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target raised to $7.25 from $7.20.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker white labels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0
If AJA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AQG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Ord Minnett observes the miners have had a good run, yet consensus estimates may be too low following the broad-based rally in commodities. The broker envisages room to grind higher in the short term.
Nevertheless, the broker is also wary that prices sit above cost curve support and may provide incentives for incremental supply.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.90.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.03
If AQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 67.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -59.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BPT as Outperform (1) -
After the company pleasantly surprised Credit Suisse with its FY17 report, a further review suggests this is a very different business to what it was a few years ago.
Beyond the capital discipline now prevailing, the Cooper Basin has revealed more opportunities and moved away from being judged a high-cost, declining region.
What sets the business apart from its peers, for Credit Suisse, is that it generates free cash flow while replacing reserves. This is hard to find, globally.
The broker suggests that, given the company's target and its record of exploration success, there is more upside to be had. Outperform retained. Target is $0.80.
Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.14
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.75, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of -64.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 11.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BWP as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse downwardly revises FY18-20 forecasts by -0.2% on average, reflecting an assumption that the downtime associated with upcoming lease expires and store replacements will take longer than previously anticipated.
Underperform. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.92.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -49.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
Overnight Price: $10.89
Deutsche Bank rates FPH as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank assesses a Labour-led government in New Zealand could be a net positive for the company. Aside from a potential impact on the NZ dollar, which is weaker so far during the election campaign and therefore a positive, the main change would be the incentives for R&D.
Labour's policy would add around 3.3% to the company's after-tax earnings. The company has received funding under the current government policy that has been capped at NZ$5m per year. Under Labour's proposed policy this would have been more like NZ$5.5m.
The general election will be held on September 23.
Hold rating retained. Target rises to NZ$11.80 from NZ$11.50.
Current Price is $10.89. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.54 cents and EPS of 31.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.07 cents and EPS of 35.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley observes the company is intent on separating its capital allocation - allocating equity capital to the platform and distribution while using re-insurers to support the insurance licence.
The broker also notes further quota share deals reduces earnings volatility and supports more capital initiatives, while boosting returns on equity.
Overall, the business is considered well placed to execute on a new operating model. Overweight rating retained. Industry view In-Line. Price target $6.80.
Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.36
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 37.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.1, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 42.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ILU as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett observes the miners have had a good run, yet consensus estimates may be too low following the broad-based rally in commodities. The broker envisages room to grind higher in the short term.
Nevertheless, the broker is also wary that prices sit above cost curve support and may provide incentives for incremental supply.
Iluka's rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is $10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.24 Difference: $0.76
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of 150.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley has been briefed by management that while there is just $1bn of new engineering work secured over the year there is an additional $2bn from the Melbourne metro on which the company's consortium has reached preferred bidder status.
The company has also noted there is a more rational market versus 12 months ago as capacity constraints are growing. Still, the large projects will take time to ramp up. Meanwhile, FY18 apartment completions are expected to sink to around half the levels of FY17 before increasing in FY19.
Overweight rating and $16.45 target retained. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $16.45 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $0.05
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.26, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.50 cents and EPS of 141.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.3, implying annual growth of 12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 79.50 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RRL as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett observes the miners have had a good run, yet consensus estimates may be too low following the broad-based rally in commodities. The broker envisages room to grind higher in the short term.
Nevertheless, the broker is also wary that prices sit above cost curve support and may provide incentives for incremental supply.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is raised to $4.10 from $4.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting downside of -18.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WAF as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
Macquarie initiates coverage on West African Resources with an Outperform rating and $0.50 target. The company is also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and is a gold explorer and developer undertaking feasibility work on the Sanbrado project in Burkina Faso.
Drilling since the completion of the initial study has returned some exceptional results, Macquarie notes. Visible gold is abundant at the M1 prospect where the highest grade to date has been 1600g/t over half a metre with a 21m intersection at 53.1 3g/t.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.15
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WES as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie updates estimates on the back of its commodity and foreign exchange forecasts. Higher coal prices have lifted forecasts for the resources business in FY18 by 44.1%. Forecasts decline -15.5% for FY19.
The broker retains an Outperform rating and increases the target to $44.
Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $42.30 Difference: $1.7
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.94, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 238.50 cents and EPS of 275.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.2, implying annual growth of -0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 258.20 cents and EPS of 286.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 263.0, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AAD - | ARDENT LEISURE | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $1.93 |
| AJA - | ASTRO JAPAN PROP | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.25 |
| AQG - | ALACER GOLD | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.27 |
| BPT - | BEACH ENERGY | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.66 |
| BWP - | BWP TRUST | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.93 |
| FPH - | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $10.89 |
| IAG - | INSURANCE AUSTRALIA | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.44 |
| ILU - | ILUKA RESOURCES | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.24 |
| LLC - | LEND LEASE CORP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $16.40 |
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.25 |
| WAF - | WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.35 |
| WES - | WESFARMERS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $42.30 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 5 |
| 3. Hold | 5 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Tuesday 05 September 2017
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