Australian Broker Call

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June 05, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ASX - ASX Ltd Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
NAB - National Australia Bank Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
S32 - South32 Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
STO - Santos Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
WBC - Westpac Banking Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
ALX  ATLAS ARTERIA

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $6.66

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Atlas Arteria has completed a placement of $420m and is in the middle of a share purchase plan. After clearing the MIBL debt and working capital costs for the next two years, Macquarie expects about $80-155m of cash.

This will be used for degearing Warnow, believes the broker. The broker notes a pick-up in France which appears muted due to the Ascension Day public holiday. Macquarie rates the stock neutral with a target price of $6.93.

Target price is $6.93 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $0.27
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 648.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 79.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of 164.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $87.28

Credit Suisse rates ASX as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Cash equity activity remained strong in May with the ASX on track for a record second half. ASX 24 derivatives activity was very weak, which Credit Suisse suggests was likely the result of the RBA rate targeting initiatives.

Equity raisings also remained elevated. However, going into FY21 revenue growth is expected to slow and the fall in the BBSW rate will create a further obstacle.

The broker assesses earnings estimates are starting to look stretched and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral as the stock has outperformed the market over the last three months. Target is steady at $73.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $87.28 Difference: minus $14.28 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $74.66, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 232.00 cents and EPS of 258.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.6, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 220.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 262.2, implying annual growth of 0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 236.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ASX as Reduce (5) -

Activity in May was mixed, with strong listings and equity trading levels offset by weaker futures. Morgans downgrades estimates by -1-2% over the forecast period because of slightly softer futures forecasts and lower interest income.

Still, results are expected to be solid. Management is undertaking several technological projects that have potential to add revenue over the longer term. The stock is considered expensive and a Reduce rating is retained. Target is raised to $74.92 from $72.14.

Target price is $74.92 Current Price is $87.28 Difference: minus $12.36 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $74.66, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 232.00 cents and EPS of 258.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.6, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 237.00 cents and EPS of 264.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 262.2, implying annual growth of 0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 236.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX  BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $1.07

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

The federal government's latest stimulus for the home building industry has underscored Beacon Lighting's position as Citi's top pick in small cap retail.

The business faces limited competition from other retail and leisure categories as stores remained open during the lockdown, and consumers sought to improve their homes while stuck there.

Citi upgrades FY20-22 net profit estimates by 9-14%. Target is raised to $1.24 from 95c. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.24 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.17
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.77.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX  CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LTD

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $2.87

Macquarie rates CCX as Outperform (1) -

Macquaries continues to view City Chic Collective’s online channel favourably, especially for Australia and New Zealand. The broker notes pressure in the US channels including the online business due to rising political and social unrest.

Earnings forecasts increased over FY20-22.

Despite near term headwinds in the US, the broker is positive due to the diversified offering and the underpenetrated plus-size space.

Macquarie rates the stock outperform with target price increased to $2.71 from $2.69.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EOF  ECOFIBRE LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $2.79

Ord Minnett rates EOF as Buy (1) -

The pandemic has created challenging conditions but a recovery is beginning to emerge, Ord Minnett assesses. Nevertheless, in the US many pharmacies have been forced to close again to protect against damage and theft.

The combined impact of a prolonged disruption is a delay in sales to new distribution partners in addition to inconsistent re-ordering.

As a result, Ecofibre has withdrawn guidance for second half net profit. Nevertheless, Ord Minnett does not believe this will de-rail the long-term outlook and retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $3.33 from $3.61.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.54
If EOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 75.41.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.60

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Cracow has been sold for $125m, below Morgan Stanley's valuation. Moreover, around half the payment is delayed or contingent on performance.

The sale of the asset is consistent with the company's strategy to upgrade its portfolio and focus on more valuable assets.

Overweight rating. Target is $4.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 73.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining has sold the Cracow gold mine for consideration of up to $125m. In Ord Minnett's view this is not a material outcome but presents an opportunity to re-visit valuations for other "less core" operations such as Mount Carlton, Mount Rawdon and Mungari.

The broker increases the target to $3.90 from $3.70. A Sell rating is retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 73.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining has sold Cracow for $125m. UBS considers the sale makes sense strategically as it increases the quality and duration of the portfolio. This was a short-life asset

 The remaining such assets are Mount Rawdon and Mount Carlton. These two contribute around 23% of the brokers FY21 earnings estimates although 7% of valuation.

 The broker does not believe the stock justifies its current trading levels, which are in line with major peers on an enterprise value/operating earnings basis. Sell retained. Target is reduced to $5.30 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 73.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL  FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $3.55

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Competitor Guidewire's trends provide an important comparative for Fineos Corp, notes Macquarie.  The broker notes all major projects to be on track and high utilisation levels despite covid-19.

Overall, the company is on track to meet the upper end of its guidance range. Earnings forecasts remain unchanged by the broker.

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating with a target price of $3.92.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.37
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 725.97.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 242.16.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG  MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $57.75

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Net outflows of-$280m occurred in May, stemming from institutions as retail was positive. Morgan Stanley estimates the institution outflows came from both global equities and global listed infrastructure strategies.

While the stock has been a strong traditional asset manager it is on a large premium to peers, the broker observes, leaving it vulnerable to a de-rating if flows slow.

Magellan Financial is launching an active ETF version of the Airlie Australian Share fund which should support retail flows, in the broker's view.

Target is $40. Underweight maintained. Industry view is: In-Line.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $57.75 Difference: minus $17.75 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.27, suggesting downside of -21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 204.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.4, implying annual growth of 6.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 192.70 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.5, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 199.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MNF  MNF GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $5.34

Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley envisages scope for upside and for the company to beat its pre-pandemic earnings guidance.

There is also potential for a re-rating of the trading multiple because of the improved understanding of the structural growth story.

Since the first half result there has been consistently strong outcomes from some of the company's largest customers/peers.

Overweight rating reiterated. Target is $5.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.06
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.43.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $19.56

UBS rates NAB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

While the numerous pressures on banks have weighed over recent years and the stocks have consistently underperformed, UBS suggests the outlook may not be so bleak.

While the economy is not emerging from its problems as yet, the broker believes the market is likely to factor in a recovery in bank returns unless there is further deterioration.

National Australia Bank is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. In a good environment credit losses could fall back to mid-cycle levels by FY22 and asset inflation may begin to normalise. A sector return of around 9% still appears possible, in the broker's view. Target is raised to $20.50 from $16.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.56 Difference: $0.94
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.14, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.3, implying annual growth of -35.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.2, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $4.93

Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse suggests there is an opportunity for investors to focus on fundamentals. The agricultural outlook has improved in the US and Australia but the company has reversed recent gains because the update emphasised the pandemic impact in Europe.

Credit Suisse suggests a balanced view of Europe is needed. Normalising supply ex China and, therefore, better prospects for costs and margins are positive signals. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $6.74 from $6.82.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $1.81
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates NUF as Hold (3) -

Australasia and North America are benefiting from better weather and planting conditions. Ord Minnett believes this is priced into the stock at current levels.

Meanwhile, Europe has been most affected by the pandemic amid uncertain conditions and increasing challenges. The broker retains a Hold rating and $4.95 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.02
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML  OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $1.15

Credit Suisse rates OML as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found little detail in the AGM update. The broker assesses near-term volatility is highly likely. Moreover, consensus estimates appear "toppy" for 2021.

 Nevertheless, the valuation appears undemanding and the broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $1.29 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.14
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 500.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of -90.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 1183.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.66

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Qantas has announced an increase in its domestic and regional flights for June and July, with capacity of up to 15% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of June.

Additional capacity in July will depend on demand and further relaxation of state borders. Morgan Stanley assumes domestic capacity is at 45% of normal in the first half.

Qantas has not updated on international capacity intentions although the broker notes reports that suggest a resumption of a Canberra-Wellington route from July 1.

Overweight. Target is $5.20. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.54
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting downside of -17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REH  REECE LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $9.77

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates REH as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

While Reece has achieved 60% of its target market in Australia, Ord Minnett believes growth will be linked more to market rates as its branch network density limits greenfield opportunities and M&A.

There remains ample scope for the company to grow its position in the US over time and a recent $600m equity raising should help with funding, in the broker's view.

Ord Minnett initiates coverage with a Hold rating and $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.12, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $2.19

UBS rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral, assessing the risk/reward is attractive. There is upside risk to spot alumina, aluminium and metallurgical coal in the medium term, partly offset by manganese.

Moreover, there is a strong balance sheet and the business is reshaping the portfolio with the Hermosa project, Ambler & Eagle Downs and via the exit of South African energy coal and manganese alloy smelters.

UBS envisages a number of potential catalysts. Estimates are reduced for FY20 by -6% and for FY21 by -14% to reflect new guidance. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.61
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.95 cents and EPS of 5.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.44 cents and EPS of 17.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 120.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP  STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $3.96

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

The Australian government's stimulus package aimed at improving the construction industry underwhelmed UBS. It may be positive for sentiment but falls short of the expectations flagged in the press.

Further supportive packages may be announced by the states but incremental economic activity is expected to come from apartments/investors and this segment is currently very weak.

UBS retains a preference for Mirvac ((MGR)), given lower gearing, and office exposure. Neutral rating maintained but under review. Target is raised to $3.55 from $3.05.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 157.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $28.84

Macquarie rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has reviewed Sonic Healthcare’s near term forecasts and notes scope for improvement in activity in the first half of FY21. The broker expects less pandemic-related headwinds for the September quarter.

FY21 earnings forecasts have been revised upwards.

The broker retains its neutral rating with the target price increased to $27.65 from $24.5.

Target price is $27.65 Current Price is $28.84 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 87.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of -29.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 114.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.2, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.75

Morgans rates STO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans believes the hurdles to new growth have increased substantially. Oil is recovering and large producers have regained profitability, which is an essential improvement in fundamentals.

Santos is considered best placed to resume growth with a significant competitive advantage over close peers. Dorado is likely to provide an attractive growth option and the increased stake in Darwin LNG has raised confidence in the Barossa development.

PNG remains the risky proposition. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target to $6.30 from $4.39.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $0.55
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.47 cents and EPS of 5.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 96.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.27 cents and EPS of 19.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 46.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOC  VOCUS GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $3.21

Credit Suisse rates VOC as Neutral (3) -

The company has confirmed FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance, although has tightened the range to the lower end.

Credit Suisse anticipates network services growth of around 10% and suspects the likely weaker performance relative to previous estimates is stemming from retail.

The broker envisages scope for weakness at Commander in particular as small enterprises, while unlikely to be disconnecting services while the stimulus measures are in place, are probably scaling down to the necessities.

The company's debt finance update removes any risk of accessing the debt markets. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.19
If VOC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 205.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates VOC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the debt refinancing has significantly reduced the risk of an equity raising. The company has also narrowed the FY20 operating earnings guidance to $359-369m.

The broker believes this reinforces the defensive nature of the company's earnings, given the current environment. Overweight rating retained. Target is $3.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.29
If VOC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 205.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates VOC as Hold (3) -

Vocus has refinanced its syndicated debt facility and tightened its FY20 guidance range. Morgans welcomes the news as concerns over the debt position had plagued investors.

Yet revenue growth has slowed while tighter cost control has helped the business stay within guidance. Hold retained

 The shape of the economic recovery is considered the main swing factor for FY21. Target is reduced to $3.33 from $3.53.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.12
If VOC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 205.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates VOC as Buy (1) -

The company has successfully refinanced debt which reduces short-term risks to the balance sheet. Ord Minnett expects growth in the key network segment will ramp up over the coming years and drive upside to valuation.

FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance has been tightened to $359-369m. Ord Minnett forecasts less than 5% growth for FY21. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.71 from $3.47.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.5
If VOC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 205.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOL  VICTORY OFFICES

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $0.50

Ord Minnett rates VOL as Buy (1) -

The pandemic has forced serviced office occupancy to slump. The company's occupancy has fallen to around 20% from around 81% in February.

A capital raising of $15m has been secured to shore up the balance sheet. Ord Minnett believes a near-term recovery to breaking even is eminently achievable but the extent to which changes in workplace behaviour becomes entrenched remains uncertain.

As a result, a recovery to pre-pandemic conditions may prove challenging. A Speculative notation is now added to the Buy rating and the target is reduced to $0.86 from $2.75.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.36
If VOL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $18.88

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Westpac has completed its investigation into the AML/CTF compliance issues. The assessment was some areas of risk were not sufficiently understood and accountability for managing compliance end to end was unclear

There are also failures acknowledged in other areas which occurred because of a mix of technology and human error. The bank believes appropriate action has been taken.

A -$900m provision for an AUSTRAC penalty was raised in the first half and Morgan Stanley does not expect further charges to be included.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating. Target is $15.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $18.88 Difference: minus $3.88 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.09, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of -53.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 148.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.8, implying annual growth of 45.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Westpac has published results of its investigation into its compliance breaches. None of the reports uncovered any intentional wrongdoing although the exercise highlighted a number of shortcomings in processes and responses to failings.

Dealings with AUSTRAC are ongoing and Westpac set aside a -$900m provision in the first half. Ord Minnett assumes this will be topped up by a further -$100m in the second half. Hold rating and $16.75 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $16.75 Current Price is $18.88 Difference: minus $2.13 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.09, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 109.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of -53.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.8, implying annual growth of 45.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WBC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

While the numerous pressures on banks have weighed over recent years and the stocks have consistently underperformed, UBS suggests the outlook may not be so bleak.

While the economy is not emerging from its problems as yet, the broker believes the market is likely to factor in a recovery in bank returns unless there is further deterioration.

Westpac is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. In a good environment credit losses could fall back to mid-cycle levels by FY22 and asset inflation may begin to normalise. A sector return of around 9% still appears possible, in the broker's view. Target is raised to $20.50 from $18.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.88 Difference: $1.62
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.09, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of -53.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.8, implying annual growth of 45.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGN  WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $1.25

Morgans rates WGN as Hold (3) -

Morgans does not believe the findings in the Supreme Court of Queensland's judgement will affect the business going forward as supply to Boral ((BLD)) has resumed.

However, a recovery of lost revenue is considered unlikely. The broker believes Wagners has a range of factors that will contribute to an improved result in FY21.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised $1.20 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If WGN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting downside of -20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of -96.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 416.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of 1000.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ALX Atlas Arteria $6.66 Macquarie 6.93 N/A -
ANZ ANZ Banking Group $19.77 UBS 21.00 20.00 5.00%
ASX ASX Ltd $87.28 Morgans 74.92 72.14 3.85%
BLX Beacon Lighting $1.07 Citi 1.24 0.95 30.53%
CCX City Chic $2.87 Macquarie 2.71 2.69 0.74%
EOF Ecofibre $2.79 Ord Minnett 3.33 3.61 -7.76%
EVN Evolution Mining $5.60 Ord Minnett 3.90 3.70 5.41%
UBS 5.30 5.50 -3.64%
FCL Fineos Corp $3.55 Macquarie 3.92 3.48 12.64%
NAB National Australia Bank $19.56 UBS 20.50 16.50 24.24%
NUF Nufarm $4.93 Credit Suisse 6.74 6.82 -1.17%
OML oOh!media $1.15 Credit Suisse 1.29 1.25 3.20%
S32 South32 $2.19 UBS 2.80 2.90 -3.45%
SGP Stockland $3.96 UBS 3.55 3.05 16.39%
SHL Sonic Healthcare $28.84 Macquarie 27.65 24.50 12.86%
STO Santos $5.75 Morgans 6.30 4.29 46.85%
TYR Tyro Payments $4.06 Morgan Stanley 4.00 3.50 14.29%
VOC Vocus Group $3.21 Credit Suisse 3.40 3.60 -5.56%
Morgans 3.33 3.53 -5.67%
Ord Minnett 3.71 3.47 6.92%
VOL Victory Offices $0.50 Ord Minnett 0.86 2.75 -68.73%
WBC Westpac Banking $18.88 UBS 20.50 18.50 10.81%
WGN Wagners Holding $1.25 Morgans 1.20 1.00 20.00%
Summaries
ALX Atlas Arteria Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.66
ASX ASX Ltd Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $87.28
Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $87.28
BLX Beacon Lighting Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.07
CCX City Chic Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.87
EOF Ecofibre Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.79
EVN Evolution Mining Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.60
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.60
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $5.60
FCL Fineos Corp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.55
MFG Magellan Financial Group Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $57.75
MNF MNF Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.34
NAB National Australia Bank Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $19.56
NUF Nufarm Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.93
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.93
OML oOh!media Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.15
QAN Qantas Airways Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.66
REH Reece Initiation of coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.77
S32 South32 Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.19
SGP Stockland Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.96
SHL Sonic Healthcare Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $28.84
STO Santos Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.75
VOC Vocus Group Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.21
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.21
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.21
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.21
VOL Victory Offices Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.50
WBC Westpac Banking Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.88
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $18.88
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $18.88
WGN Wagners Holding Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.25
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

3. Hold

10

5. Sell

6

Friday 05 June 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.