Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees an opportunity for investors after the market focused more on Life360's 3Q net adds than long-term profitabilty. The broker raises its target price to $14.20 from $10.50 and maintains its Overweight rating. Industry view: In-line.

The analyst raises forecasts for annualised monthly revenue (AMR) and earnings (EBITDA) after management raised its guidance. It's thought a re-rating might follow from the company's plan for a dual listing on a US exchange in 2022.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $11.61 Difference: $2.59
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

After Ampol's ESG corporate day, UBS looks at the risks and opportunities that could emerge for the company as the world decarbonises. Management is looking at ways to repurpose its retail network and infrastructure to reduce asset stranding risk from decarbonisation.

However, the company is also alert to emerging opportunities as customers seek less carbon intensive solutions to petroleum and diesel for transportation. The broker maintains its Buy rating and $34.50 target price.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $31.80 Difference: $2.7
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects the first half result on November 17 to have a conservative tone as the company has a history of under-promising and over-delivering. The broker will be looking for further details on Nuvisan to underpin the revenue outlook.

More signs of price improvements linked to strong demand and flows for geochemistry are anticipated, although this could be slower to unfold compared with the capacity additions. Morgans raises the target to $13.17 from $12.45 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $13.17 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.25, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alcoa will re-start the aluminium capacity at Portland with first production expected in the third quarter of 2022. The AWAC joint venture has a 55% interest in the plant.

Additional production volumes will be unlocked for the total cost of -$28m. Incorporating the additional production has little impact on Macquarie's estimates for underlying earnings, but should improve the Alumina Ltd profile over the medium to longer term.

The Neutral rating and target price of $1.90 are retained. 

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as No Rating (-1) -

Aurizon Holdings has added to its disclosure on the OneRail acquisition, expecting 14% growth in the first year. Macquarie expects growth will be centred on the development of the Gawler region in South Australia.

Intermodal will be dependent on Northern Territory population growth so the broker expects developments like Beetaloo will be positive.

Coal haulage volumes in Newcastle were flat in October while Gladstone was down -9%, the broker notes. Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $3.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group will sell its 80% interest in BMC Coal for US$1.35bn to Stanmore Resources ((SMR)). The company will reduce its coal exposure to around 7% of EBITDA as a result, post FY22, assuming the sale of Mount Arthur North is completed by August.

Subsequently, coal assets would consist of just a 50% interest in the BMA joint venture which has a production capacity of 70mtpa of hard coking coal. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $52 from $54.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $36.38 Difference: $15.62
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.89, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley estimates the low-quality met coal asset BHP Mitsui Coal (now divested) was forecast to contribute less than US$1bn of earnings (EBITDA) for FY22. The sale price is US$1.35bn (US$1.1bn in cash and US$100m in cash six months after completion plus US$150m).

The US$150m is the potential receipt from a price-linked earnout payable in 2024. Morgan Stanley does not have a rating or target at present. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $36.38. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $43.89, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group announced the sale of its 80% interest in BHP Mitsui Coal (BMC) for US$1.1bn. UBS notes this is consistent with a strategy to divest lower quality met coal and focus on premium hard coking coal. The Neutral rating and $38 target price are unchanged.

Management stated proceeds will be used to maximise shareholder value via dividends, share buybacks or a combination thereof.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $36.38 Difference: $1.62
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.89, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Outperform (1) -

Centuria Industrial REIT has acquired $130m of infill industrial assets at an average yield of 4%, to be funded through new and existing debt. All assets are located on the eastern seaboard.

Macquarie observes the relatively short weighted average lease expiries should mean superior rental growth.

No update to FY22 guidance was provided, which is for no less than 18.1c per security, and the broker suspects the company is erring on the conservative side in not upgrading as part of the announcement.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $4.16 from $4.22.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.42
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIP as Accumulate (2) -

Centuria Industrial REIT has acquired four industrial assets on the eastern seaboard at a weighted average capitalisation rate of 4.22% and weighted average initial yield of 4.0%.

Ord Minnett updates its financial modelling and continues to believe the stock is the best pure play exposure to the Australian industrial asset class. Accumulate rating and $4.10 target price maintained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.36
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Incitec Pivot has been unable to secure long-term gas supply at the right price and will close its Gibson Island plant, and now source ammonia from overseas for explosives. Separately, fertiliser prices continue to climb.

Citi reduces its target price to $3.20 from $3.35 after raising FY22 fertiliser price assumptions, and allowing for the earnings impact from Gibson Island. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.07
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse had already assumed Incitec Pivot would close its Gibson Island facility once its gas contract expired at the end of 2022 and notes the knock-on effect to Moranbah is relatively minor.

The broker has increased near term fertiliser price forecasts due to supply tightness, leading to earnings upgrades for FY21-22.

Neutral retained, target rises to $3.01 from $2.98.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Incitec Pivot has been unable to secure a viable long-term gas supply for Gibson Island beyond the current contract and anticipates closing operations by the end of December 2022.

The closure would reduce the long-term leverage the company has with urea prices but it can still take advantage of strong prices over the next year, Macquarie observes.

The feasibility study into industrial-scale production of green ammonia at Gibson Island will progress and could be a means to re-open the facility.

Macquarie reduces the target to $3.50 from $3.57 and maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.37
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses only a modest negative earnings impact from the closure of Gibson Island and focuses upon likely earnings upside from stronger fertiliser prices. Recent strength is thought supported by supply constraints in Europe and Chinese export controls. 

The Overweight rating is unchanged. The $3.55 target price is also maintained, despite meaningful forecast EPS upgrades from the higher fertiliser prices. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.42
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Upon initial assessment, it appears James Hardie's Q2 performance beat both Macquarie's and consensus forecast. The US40c in dividend was also better-than-expected.

Making matters even better: James Hardie has upgraded its guidance range to US$580-600m from US$550-590m previously.

Outperform. Target $59.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $54.33 Difference: $4.67
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.05, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy has undertaken oil hedging and confirmed that up to 30% of the Bauna production is now hedged across FY22-24.

Macquarie lauds the arrangement which enables access to funding and retains the price upside on the majority of oil production.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $2.05 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.2
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNK as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the recent investor briefing has highlighted growth and margin expansion albeit overshadowed by the bid from Carlyle Group. Link Administration has set FY26 targets for a five-year revenue growth rate of 8-10%.

Growth is expected to come both organically and through new markets. In corporate markets the company is targeting a 10-12% growth rate in earnings (EBIT) while acknowledging problems in the UK operations which will be "re-platformed".

Morgans makes no changes to estimates and retains an Add rating and $5.38 target.

Target price is $5.38 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.79
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes revenue growth has been moderating for almost 2 years, reduced to 29% in the third quarter of FY21 from 89% in the fourth quarter of FY19.

The company's renewed focus on revenue has meant an increase in proportional the contribution from channel sales. The broker expects this will boost the business and suspects consensus has underestimated future revenue growth.

Macquarie initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $24 target, with its analysis of port unit economics showing margins improve more rapidly at lower utilisation levels and utilisation should improved to 75% by FY24 from 47% in FY21.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $19.46 Difference: $4.54
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.94, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Upon initial assessment, Macquarie finds National Australia Bank's FY21 result was slightly better-than-expected, by some 2%. Disappointing market income was offset by low impairment charges.

Macquarie is of the view the bank is performing well, up to the point the broker suggests NAB shares deserve to trade at a premium vis-a-vis ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and Westpac ((WBC)).

Outperform rating with a target of $29.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $29.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Hold (3) -

nib Holdings has bought Kiwi Insurance for $43m. The latter business was established in 2002 and offers NZ life and living insurance products as well as services through Kiwibank.

The company will also enter an exclusive relationship with Kiwibank which will refer its retail customers for life and living insurance needs.

While this is a small bolt-on deal, Morgans points out the NZ performance for nib Holdings has been patchy. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $7.66 from $7.63.

Target price is $7.66 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $0.36
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

The first quarter results were ahead of forecasts. The risk and compliance growth rate in Factiva and Newswires was better than expected at 26% and consistent with Macquarie's belief that consensus is underestimating the industry.

News Corp has indicated the licensing deals with Google/Facebook are likely to increase, based on the number of products that are being launched. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $46 from $45.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $33.02 Difference: $12.98
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.50, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the FY21 results on November 11, Macquarie forecasts $205m in underlying profit. The broker observes domestic ammonium nitrate production should garner strength in FY22 as global business emerges from the pandemic. Moreover, the first half will be cycling weak comparables.

The main headwinds are higher freight and ammonia costs for the short term, although it appears Orica has been able to manage this throughout the second half.

The broker expects gearing will be at the upper end of the 30-40% target because of the asset write-downs that have been disclosed. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $15.32 from $13.90.

Target price is $15.32 Current Price is $15.28 Difference: $0.04
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.98, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

Pendal Group's ESG and impact investing capabilities give Morgan Stanley more comfort on flow recovery. The early success of impact investing ($400m) suggests inflows can come faster than expected, given a scarcity of impact investing funds.

The analyst feels ESG growth options are not allowed for in the current share price, which could drive a sustained re-rating. The Overweight rating and $8.80 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: $1.96
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Citi initiates coverage on Pro Medicus with a Sell rating and a $45 target price. The provider of Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS) and radiology information systems (RIS) derives around 75% of revenue from the US and 20% from Australia.

The company plans to expand further into Europe. The analyst perceives the biggest risk is a competing product to the company's flagship Visage, with similar features at a lower price.

Citi believes the current share price is overly-optimistic. It's thought to incorporate an accelerated expansion and significant market share gains, all while the company maintains an earnings (EBIT) margin greater than 65%.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $59.31 Difference: minus $14.31 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the aquisition of Penfold Motor Group for -$104m by Peter Warren Automotive Holdings makes strategic sense. The company is thought to be very cheap on current multiples and the broker retains its Overweight rating and $4.60 target price.

The analyst believes the transaction will be earnings accretive, will add diversification and establishes a platform for highly repeatable inorganic growth in Victoria. Overweight rating and 4.60 target price retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $1.43
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWR as Add (1) -

Peter Warren Automotive has acquired Penfolds Motor for -$104m to enter the market in Victoria. This will provide scale and increase revenue by 24%. The deal will be funded in cash and scrip.

Morgans believes this consolidation opportunity is a gateway to meaningful growth and there remains further capacity on the balance sheet. Add rating retained. Target rises to $4.16 from $4.02.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $0.99
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS raises its target price for REA Group to $170 from $160 after an "outstanding" first quarter result. While the broker upgrades its FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by 8% and 9% respectively, the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral on valuation.

While the group recorded 16% listing volume growth in October, the analyst feels volumes will remain volatile for the remainder of FY22. Management cautioned over second half risk from potential regulatory measures to slow house price inflation.

Target price is $170.00 Current Price is $171.50 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $170.70, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RFF as Neutral (3) -

Rural Funds Group has upgraded FY22 guidance for adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) to 11.8cps from 11.6cps after acquiring some cattle, cropping and macadamia properties for -$109m. The FY22 DPS guidance remains at 11.73cps.

On a leased basis and post productivity improvements, UBS anticipates earnings accretion of around 8% by FY24. The broker's target price rises to $2.78 from $2.65 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If RFF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Following Stockland's strategy update, Citi retains its Buy rating. On the assumption of strategy execution, it's thought the current share price multiple and overall -30% discount to the sector presents an attractive opportunity. The target price of $5.03 is unchanged.

Management left FY22 guidance unchanged and notes the residential business continues tro perform strongly.

Target price is $5.03 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.45
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

There were no shocks emanating from Stockland's trading update, Credit Suisse suggests. The developer will pivot its portfolio towards the industrial, office and residential sectors and away from retail and retirement.

It will also accelerate delivery on its development pipeline to over 80% within five years, and grow funds under management income via capital partnerships and potential asset sell-downs.

The broker agrees with the strategy on balance. Neutral and $4.66 target retained.

Target price is $4.66 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.08
If SGP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

The company's strategy update is positive for the medium term, in Macquarie's view. The broker believes a shift in capital allocation will provide better growth opportunities and could reduce the traditional cyclicality.

Stockland plans to divest around -$2bn in assets over the next 12-24 months. The drag on earnings flows will be more limited, Macquarie observes, as the divestments will be to third parties and the company will therefore receive earnings from funds management.

The new funds will also have leverage, increasing the equity return, while the cost of debt is likely to be lower. Macquarie makes no changes to its Neutral rating and $4.84 target.

Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.26
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley likes the vision outlined at Stockland's strategy day though is less clear about the five-year pathway to execution. The company intends to allocate more toward logistics, funds management and new offices and less to retail/retirement.

The analyst feels build-to-rent ventures may involve mere exploration rather than immediate action. The desire to scale-up the apartments business is also expected be a more medium-term profit contributor than short term.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, $5 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.42
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Hold (3) -

Stockland has reiterated guidance for FY22 funds from operations of 34.6-35.6c per security. The company is reshaping its portfolio to grow the industrial and office segment to 30-50% of capital and residential to 20-35%, while diluting retail to 20-30% and retirement to 0-5%.

Stockland will also accelerate developments with a $12bn investment pipeline to commence in the next five years.

Ord Minnett assesses the company's risk tolerance is increasing as Stockland is looking to increase exposure to adjacent sectors such as apartments and office development where its capability is unproven. Hold rating and $4.75 target maintained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.17
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Following a strategy day, Stockland's long-term-target shift in capital was bolder than UBS was expecting. Retail is expected to reduce to 20-30% from 41% and residential to increase to 20-35% (including ownership) from 15%.

The capital target for Retirement suggests to the analyst that a full sale or joint venture remains a possibility. The broker generally approves of a tilt towards higher-multiple sectors. The Buy rating and $5 target price are maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.42
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Hold (3) -

POSCO has increased its proposal to $4.60 a share. Senex Energy plans to recommend the proposal subject to a scheme implementation agreement.

Separately, the company has also announced the -$80m acquisition of two production leases adjacent to the Atlas processing facility. There have never been producing wells in the two leases yet Senex Energy believes the addition will enable production from Atlas to reach 30PJ/year in FY24.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $4.60 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SYD as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises believes a takeover of Sydney Airport is a step closer to being successful and raises its target price to $8.75 from $8.45. This comes after a Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) was entered into with Sydney Aviation Alliance Pty Ltd (the consortium).

The Deed is for a proposed takeover at $8.75/share, which the board of Sydney Airport is now recommending. The broker cautions on the downside risk should necessary approvals (regulatory, court approvals, as well as unitholders’ approval) not be obtained.

The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: $0.29
If SYD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SYD as Hold (3) -

Sydney Airport has received a bid from an infrastructure consortium at $8.75 a share. Ord Minnett calculates the proposed price implies a multiple of 23.3x based on 2019 earnings.

The transaction would need to be approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Sydney Airport is recommending the offer.

Ord Minnett suspects, given cross ownership of Australian airports by one of the participants in the consortium, there may need to be some review.

Hold rating and $8.75 target are maintained.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: $0.29
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

UBS downgrades free cash flow per security estimates for Transurban Group by -18% in FY22, due to greater mobility-restriction impacts. Further downgrades of -6% and -8% are made for FY23 and FY24, due to WestConnex transaction dilution.

The broker lowers its target price to $15.25 from $15.50. It's assumed the FY19 peak dividend (59c) is regained in FY23. The Buy rating is maintained. Traffic levels for the June 2022 half are expected to return to 2019 levels and FY23 should be up 5% versus 2019.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $13.83 Difference: $1.42
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Tyro Payments has had a record week with total transaction value of $698m, up 46%. This was underpinned by easing of restrictions in NSW and Victoria and Ord Minnett expects the momentum will continue to the end of 2021.

October TTV of $2.7bn was up 34% on a year ago and higher than the December 2020 peak. This was supported by merchant acquisitions and the Bendigo Bank ((BEN)) alliance. Buy rating and $4.30 target retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $1.12
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts EBITDA of $125m and net profit of $39m for FY21, at the mid point of guidance. The broker believes the business is an attractive play on the covid-19 recovery although this will not be linear.

Still, Macquarie assesses there has been no structural change to the business/market. United Malt will provide its results on November 17. Outperform rating and $4.51 target maintained.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.41
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -

The Australian Pharmaceutical Industries ((API)) board unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) allowing Wesfarmers to acquire 100% of the company's shares.

The cash consideration is $1.55/share. UBS points out Wesfarmers brings retail distribution, capital, as well as data and digital skills to the union. The broker retains its Neutral rating and $62 target price.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $60.03 Difference: $1.97
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.82, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources plans to develop a 30,000 ounces per annum underground operation at Fender, around 3.5km from Big Bell. Macquarie believes another underground operation along this line will alleviate some of the pressure on the Cue process plant.

There is now potential for excess high-grade ore in FY23. Cash generation should also be underpinned by reduced expenditure and increasing production at Big Bell. Outperform maintained. Target is $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.52
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as No Rating (-1) -

Western Areas has updated on Odysseus and plans to start the Cosmos concentrator refurbishment work late in 2021.

In October, first ore was produced from Odysseus and the company will now start the drilling work to test the extension of the high-grade massive sulphide.

The broker is on research restriction and cannot provide a rating or target.

Current Price is $2.88. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources