Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes rapid uptake of solar power will cause the next major inflection in energy markets. On a five-year view, the broker anticipates the investor focus will centre on AGL's generation earnings, the single largest driver.

Refreshing its analysis, the broker notes solar is hollowing out price and demand during daylight hours and maintaining Australia as a global testing ground for new technologies.

A relative Underweight rating is maintained on a one-year horizon in view of policy uncertainty and downside risk to earnings per share. Target is raised to $20.23 from $19.44. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $20.23 Current Price is $21.25 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.75, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AJM as Underperform (5) -

The company has indicated an extra shipment in December and volumes have exceeded Macquarie's expectations. The flotation plant remains the main challenge with downtime in the December quarter attributed to ball mill and tailings performance.

Macquarie expects continued improvement over 2019 and the sizeable debt obligations are likely to mean the company will require additional funding. Underperform rating and $0.16 target maintained.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AJM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley envisages little prospect that the bank will deliver on its goal of accelerating revenue growth, amid a challenging industry backdrop.

The broker observes Bendigo and Adelaide has grown mortgages at around 3% annualised over the past 3-6 months and the non-banks with no branch footprint have been the main winners of market share.

Margins are expected to fall, unless the bank reprices its mortgages. Underweight maintained going into the first half result. Industry view In Line. Target price $10.10.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BIN as Buy (1) -

The company has offered an undertaking to the ACCC to divest its waste processing facility at Banksmeadow, to address preliminary concerns regarding the proposed acquisition of Dial A Dump Industries.

The ACCC has indicated a final decision is likely by February 21 2019. Should the divestment proceed, UBS suggests it would include all assets necessary to run the facility as well as transfer of site personnel.

The company has also noted this would probably result in surplus funds, potentially for a share buyback. Buy rating and $3.45 target maintained.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $1.42
If BIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BSM as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Stockbroker Morgans initiates coverage of Bass Metals with an Add rating. The company is approaching profitable production of large flake graphite from its flagship Graphmada project in eastern Madagascar.

The broker notes the company intends to triple production by 2020, with favourable costs support providing for strong margins. Maiden price target is 2.9c.

Morgans sees potential for "significant upside", also from potential further exploration successes. The company is debt free.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.019
If BSM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 190% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CCL as Sell (5) -

UBS questions whether Coca-Cola Amatil can withstand the volatility when it comes to the weather. The weather has been an important driver of volume over the November and December trading period.

This is coupled with the risk of further investment in brand and price into 2019, and risks to Indonesian earnings targets.

UBS maintains current forecasts but flags the risk to the downside and maintains a Sell rating with a $7.85 target.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $8.13 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.51, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Last week's trading update gave investors reasons to reconsider long-term assumptions, Credit Suisse points out, although the net profit impact for 2018 is immaterial to valuation.

The new material in the announcement was regarding domestic berry pricing, which was soft in late December and early January. However, the broker suggests the big swing in profit between 2019 and 2018 will be driven by citrus and international business, not berries.

Credit Suisse shifts its valuation technique to DCF and takes more conservative long-term assumptions. The rating is raised to Outperform from Neutral as the share price has dropped below the target. Target is reduced to $5.60 from $7.30.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.55
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -

UBS questions whether the material downgrade to guidance is seasonal, structural or just indicative of a "bad couple of months". Several factors contributed to the downgrade, which drives -11%-14% reductions to UBS estimates.

2019 guidance implying net profit of over $78m still stands. UBS believes Costa Group has been able to mitigate supply side risks but the earnings warning highlights previously under-appreciated risk on the demand side.

The broker maintains a Buy rating. Key catalysts include pricing trends and clarity on the issues with demand. Target is reduced to $6.80 from $8.20.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $1.75
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the stock is down -30% or more since October. The broker expects the company to deliver on FY19 guidance, with cash flow conversion of 30-40% in the first half, noting the market is expecting strong earnings and soft cash flow.

Seasonality in earnings and cash flow has been part of the business over a long period and the company had called out a pronounced skew in cash flow before bearish concerns were raised.

Hence, the broker reiterates an Overweight rating. Target is $27. In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $22.95 Difference: $4.05
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS highlights Cleanaway Waste as a defensive play in a market where investors are concerned about the slowdown in consumer spending. The broker suggests the recent win at Sydney Council is an indication the company is gaining share.

Toxfree is also likely to provide synergy benefits over the next three years. Cleanaway is expected to be at the forefront of structural change in the Australian waste industry.

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is steady at $2.15.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.36
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi reduces estimates for earnings per share by -5-13% to account for weaker listings in the December quarter as well as lower developer revenues and slower yield growth.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $2.45 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.24
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EHL as Add (1) -

Stockbroker Morgans cannot reconcile the -35% fall in the share price with industry feedback which is suggesting Emeco is actually experiencing a robust environment from an operational point of view.

Clearly, concludes Morgans, the marginal investor has lost confidence in the cycle. The price target has fallen to $3.55 from $4.10 on a general re-set of its model, but the analysts remain of the view this is one share price that has been pushed down way, way, way too far.

Maybe the upcoming interim results report can deliver the necessary catalyst?

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $1.18
If EHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the path of least resistance for iron ore prices is lower, amid a forecast increase in 2019 supply and lower Chinese steel prices.

Fortescue Metals has rallied almost 30% since its September low and is now approaching valuation. Hence, the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is raised to $4.90 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.35
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HT1 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral as valuation is considered attractive at current levels. There is further upside potential if the company can obtain a favourable outcome on its tax dispute.

Citi maintains a target of $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.25
If HT1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ICQ as Add (1) -

It's a case of from little things, bigger things grow with the company having revealed both Malaysia and Thailand operations are now "in the black" at the EBITDA level. Morgans notes the company as a whole remains on track to become cash flow positive by the second half of 2020.

Due to China worries, the analysts have decided to reduce forecasts. Irrespective, rolling forward the valuation modeling has now pushed up the price target to 46c from 41c. Add rating retained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.31
If ICQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 207% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the investment case for IDP Education following analysis of FY19 student visa data. Robust growth trends are seen continuing.

The broker observes the company's diversified platform enables it to capitalise on the cyclical nature of global student flows. Outperform rating maintained and the target is raised to $11.50 from $10.70.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $0.79
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.40, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie flattens out its price trajectory for the company's business to reflect weakness in spot titanium dioxide prices. Supply management should lessen the impact of weaker zircon prices while softer production should support a stable rutile price.

Despite a slump in the shares, Macquarie retains a Neutral rating as the stock is now factoring in a drop in realised commodity prices. Target is reduced to $7.80 from $8.60.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $0.04
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

The company's quarterly report indicates early development work is progressing well at Beyondie. Macquarie expects a final investment decision over the first half of 2019.

Further optimisation from the FEED activity is likely as well. The broker retains an Outperform rating and $0.65 target.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.33
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LVH as Add (1) -

Trading update by the company revealed strong December quarter cash flows, observe analysts at Morgans. They found performance metrics equally strong.

Only small changes have been made post update. Price target gains 1c to 93c and Add (High Risk) rating retained.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.37
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MYX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS changes the lead analyst covering Mayne Pharma and re-models earnings drivers. Revised estimates for FY19-21 reflect a decline of -11-33% on prior estimates. Methodology has also shifted to a DCF valuation.

Despite a relatively robust earnings outlook, UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and considers the stock now fairly valued versus historical levels and peers. Target is reduced to $0.83 from $1.15.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.03
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.02, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi reduces earnings estimates for the entire traditional media sector, primarily to reflect more conservative growth forecasts.

Nine Entertainment's rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral, entirely because of valuation, with the drop in the share price considered excessive. Target is reduced to $1.60 from $1.85.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.07
If NEC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi reduces earnings estimates for the entire traditional media sector, primarily to reflect more conservative growth forecasts.

The broker upgrades News Corp to Buy from Neutral, believing the stock represents an attractive entry point at current levels. Target is reduced to $20.00 from $21.45.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.31 Difference: $2.69
If NWS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OML as Buy (1) -

Citi considers the decline in the share price over the past three months excessive. While revenue trends may have softened in the December quarter, feedback suggests the market is still growing and trends have improved.

Earnings estimates are reduced by -4-5% to account for more conservative growth forecasts. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $5.75.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $1.7
If OML meets the Citi target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 51.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Underperform (5) -

The company has reported its sixth consecutive quarter of net outflows, although Credit Suisse observes outflows have begun to improve. Funds under management as of December were down -9% over the quarter.

Outflows were emanating from the JO Hambro business rather than Pendal Australia. Credit Suisse believes there is a risk outflows will continue, given the weak fund performance, and earnings growth is likely to be weak in FY19.

Underperform maintained. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.10.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

The company has reported net outflows of -$200m for the December quarter. Morgan Stanley considers this a solid outcome, given a challenging backdrop for flows in the US and EU/UK, particularly in retail where outflows were near-record levels.

Overweight rating. Target is $10.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $2.36
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDL as Hold (3) -

The company has reported a -9% fall in funds under management in the December quarter, comprising net outflows of -$200m. JO Hambro posted its fifth consecutive quarter of outflows.

Ord Minnett envisages the share price will remain under pressure until fund flows recover, particularly given the flagged sell down by former parent Westpac ((WBC)).

This leads the broker to maintain a Hold rating and reduce the target to $8.50 from $9.00.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $0.86
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QMS as Buy (1) -

Citi reduces the target to $1.30 from $1.40 to reflect the risks around the recent Mediaworks transaction as well as the uncertainty around further acquisitions, given the balance sheet is already stretched.

Nevertheless, the valuation is considered compelling and the broker maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.49
If QMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RHC as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse calculates that Capio will represent 22% of the company's sales and 13% of consolidated operating earnings (EBITDA). The acquisition does pose risks as the company enters four new markets with different funding systems.

Credit Suisse suspects the Capio  focus on lower acuity care versus the existing Ramsay business will mean limited synergy opportunities. Incorporating the acquisition raises earnings estimates by 1% for FY19 and up to 3% for the outer years.

Underperform rating. Target is raised to $51.10 from $47.20.

Target price is $51.10 Current Price is $57.57 Difference: minus $6.47 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $59.02, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett remains positive on the ASX gold sector, believing the macro economic backdrop will accommodate further gold price movements.

The broker believes ASX gold stocks are robust and should provide an excellent hedge into reporting season.

Ord Minnett downgrades St Barbara to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds. Target is raised to $4.70 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

The company has launched rebates, cash cards and furnishing packages across its residential projects. Home builders are also providing a range of upgrades/inclusions to complement these incentives.

UBS believes this is a concerted effort to boost enquiry levels. Nevertheless, increased levels of incentives pose a risk at a time when required deposits are declining. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $3.74 target.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.04
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SWM as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi reduces earnings estimates for the entire traditional media sector, primarily to reflect more conservative growth forecasts. The broker expects Seven West Media will continue gaining market share in FY19, despite a flat TV market.

Owing to the recent decline in the share price, the stock appears significantly cheaper and the broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is reduced to $0.60 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.05
If SWM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi reduces earnings estimates for the entire traditional media sector, primarily to reflect more conservative growth forecasts.

The broker believes growth in regional revenue should offset any decline in TV and Metro radio. Earnings forecasts are reduced by -8-11% to account for a sharper decline in regional TV.

Despite the downgrades, the broker believes substantial weakness is already Incorporated in the price and upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is reduced to $1.05 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.01
If SXL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

The company has reported December quarter production of 33,000t and 2018 production of 104,000t. Credit Suisse believes the update should partly address investor concerns over the performance at Balama.

The broker considers re-rating is possible on demonstrating consistent performance at the plant and ramp up towards nameplate.

The other principal catalyst, outside of the graphite price, is advancing the battery anode materials (BAM) project. Target is $5.50. Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $3.53
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 73.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

The company has declared commercial production at Balama, in line with expectations. Graphite production over the December quarter was 33,000t, higher than Macquarie's estimates.

This is an important development, and the broker assumes operating cash flows will be used to fund the BAM project. Outperform rating and $3.80 target maintained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $1.83
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 73.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley estimates that Transurban could earn around 25% of proportional revenue from commercial vehicles by FY23, up from less than 15% in FY14.

The broker suspects some investors may be underestimating the downside sensitivity to trucks, having never experienced a slowdown with a 3x truck toll multiplier in force.

The company's rapid traffic growth over the last five years has meant a steady increase in road widening and network expansion opportunities, which Morgan Stanley believes will underpin near-term growth in free cash flow.

Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view maintained. Target is reduced to $12.38 from $12.43.

Target price is $12.38 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: $0.6
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

The company has guided to first half operating earnings of $335-340m, up 18-20%. FY19 guidance for growth of around 25% was reiterated. The main question UBS poses is in regard to whether guidance is conservative, or have underlying trends softened?

UBS cuts FY19-21 forecasts by -4% to reflect softening markets in Asia. While underlying growth may have slowed, the broker believes this is more than priced into the stock.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $20.40 from $21.60.

Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $14.60 Difference: $5.8
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

The business has achieved a Geelong refiner margin of US$7.1/bbl in November. This suggests to UBS another downgrade versus prior guidance. The broker had forecast a second half margin of US$8.5/bbl following the downgrade in November.

UBS believes Viva Energy is a good business, with a leading market position across its three divisions that provides pricing power.

Volatility is expected to continue in refining and with this in mind, the broker does not believe the de-rating since listing is justified. Buy rating and $2.60 target maintained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.77
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Sales growth at Kmart, like-for-like, has turned negative, Citi observes, driving first half earnings declines of -8% in the company's second largest business.

The broker forecasts Kmart margins to fall to 7.5% by FY22 and believes the business is past its peak. Bunnings like-for-like sales are also slowing but margins are expected to prove resilient.

Citi maintains a Sell rating and raises the target to $29.40 from $29.20.

Target price is $29.40 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $2.68 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.73, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WES as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank has been disappointed by the marked slow down for Kmart, and doesn't believe this is just about the retail environment with Big W ((WOW)) believed to have staged somewhat of a come-back.

The analysts don't believe Bunnings is ready to resume its double digit percentage growth soon either. All in all, Deutsche Bank analysts retain the view this remains a great business, maybe Q2 can reveal its resilience.

Hold rating retained, with a $31 price target.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.73, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

The first half trading update has indicated the performance of department stores is below expectations. Kmart sales growth was 1% and Target 0.2% over the half, such that operating earnings fell by -4-7%.

Morgan Stanley believes declines will accelerate and, over the longer term, Amazon will take share, causing further pressure. Underweight rating and $30 target maintained. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.73, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WES as Add (1) -

Yesterday's trading update came as a slight disappointment to stockbroker Morgans, in particular because of weakness for the department stores. Revised guidance implies, at the mid point, a decrease by -5% from last year, point out the analysts.

Earnings estimates have been reduced by -2%. Add rating retained as the stockbroker continues to view the shares as "attractive", also because of potential for capital management initiatives in the near term. Price target erodes to $33.09 (was $33.64).

Target price is $33.09 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: $1.01
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.73, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett believes the external environment is challenging for the main divisions of Wesfarmers and tough comparable numbers will provide another challenge. The company's forecast for modest earnings growth is offset by a strong balance sheet.

The broker believes capital management is possible although there is no surplus pool of franking credits. Therefore, M&A, arguably industrial rather than consumer-facing business, is likely to be pursued even as competition for assets remains intense.

Lighten rating and $29 target maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $3.08 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.73, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -

The first half trading update signalled Kmart and Target were below expectations, driving a -2% downgrade to UBS estimates for FY19. Department store earnings will be down -4-7% year-on-year in the half.

The broker's numbers now reflect the one-off non-cash gain from Coles ((COL)) and the Quadrant sale.

UBS retains a Neutral rating, with near-term potential for capital management and/or accretive M&A offsetting the earnings risks. Target is reduced to $30.75 from $31.10.

Target price is $30.75 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.73, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources