Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates AMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Management at Aurelia Metals has approved two new projects at the Peak mine as part of its broader Cobar Basin optimisation strategy, targeting processing capacity of 1.1-1.2mtpa and copper equivalent output of 40ktpa by 2028.

The Tertiary Ball Mill Project and Crushing & Materials Handling Expansion Project will cost -$16.4m, notes Shaw and Partners, taking the total capital spend for three recent upgrades to -$26m, in line with prior guidance.

The Tertiary Ball Mill Project involves relocating a ball mill from Dargues, while the crushing upgrade includes a new jaw crusher and run-of-mine (ROM) infrastructure to support increased throughput.

A separate tailings and water upgrade will improve copper and zinc recoveries by 2.5%, says management, and reduce cyanide use, with completion scheduled by March 2026.

Peak will also be able to process Federation ore, which avoids restarting Hera and supports a single-plant strategy, explains Shaw.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 50c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.31
If AMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.36, suggesting upside of 80.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Accumulate (2) -

On the back of an improved outlook for ARB Corp's aftermarket and export divisions, Morgans raises its EPS forecasts by 1.5% for FY25 and 3.9% for FY26, ahead of the company's FY25 earnings report and on the back of July's auto sector statistics.

July new vehicle deliveries rose 2% on the prior period, with 2025 year-to-date volumes in line with 2024. Morgans' ARB index rose 7.7% in July with strength in Prado volumes, compared to the 1H2025 ARB index down -2.7% on the prior period.

The broker reaffirms its Accumulate rating on the stock, with a target price of $38.25

Target price is $38.25 Current Price is $34.45 Difference: $3.8
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.11, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS observes ASX made a mixed start to FY26 with cash equity turnover strong but futures volumes contracting.

Average daily turnover in futures fell -5.2% y/y in July and cash equities daily turnover rose 19.8% y/y. Capital raising rose 6.8% and collateral balances fell -0.8% y/y.

The broker sees upside risk to cash equity turnover expectations but downside risk to futures. EPS changes minor.

Sell. Target unchanged at $69.10.

Target price is $69.10 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.03, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Beach Energy's FY25 result met Bell Potter’s expectations, with earnings (EBITDA) of $1,136m versus the broker’s $1,125m forecast, and underlying profit of $451m in line with the $449m estimate.

The statutory loss of -$44m included a -$674m impairment due to revised commodity price assumptions, explain the analysts.

A fully franked 6c final dividend exceeded Bell Potter’s 3c forecast.

FY26 production guidance of 19.7-22.0mmboe is weaker than the broker’s 22.8mmboe and consensus at 23.3mmboe, reflecting flooding and field decline. Capex is forecast at -$675-775m.

Bell Potter cuts its FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by -16% and raises FY28 by 7%. The $1.25 target and Hold rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.02
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

UBS recently upgraded Breville Group to Buy following analysis of the global coffee machine market, which gave the analyst confidence the group can double sales over the next decade.

However, the broker notes APAC investor feedback showed clear concerns on FY26 profitability due to US tariffs and weaker US consumer spending.

Non-shareholders largely believe in the growth story but some saw scope for a better opportunity over the next six months after likely earnings downgrades.

Buy. Target unchanged at $35.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $32.99 Difference: $2.51
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.01, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi notes the highlight of BWP Trust's FY25 result announcement was higher-than-consensus distribution guidance for FY26 at 19.41c, up 4.1% y/y. The result also showed the beneft from a shift to internalised management in the past 24 months.

Lease reset at Bunnings ((WES)) at 12 sites achieved a 3.4% average increase and 12 large format retail reviews were completed at a 3.2% average increase. Enhanced lease tenure means more income certainty in the medium term with WALE rising to 4.5 years, up from 0.7 year previously, the broker notes.

For FY25, the distribution of 18.65c was in line with the broker's estimate and the consensus. 

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.40.

The broker has a 90-day short term upside view on the stock.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.36
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BWP as Buy (1) -

BWP Trust's FY25 net profit missed UBS' forecast by -1.3% with the variance accounted by costs related to internalisation. The FY26 DPS guidance was 1.3% higher than the broker's estimate and 0.4% higher than consensus.

However, the broker reckons this was due to internalisation benefits not being factored in and neither the downtime related to Bunnings ((WES)) lease expiry.

Positives include the rise in WALE to 7.7 years from 4.5 years following the Bunnings lease reset and FY26-29 lease expiries reduction to just 4-5% from 55-60%.

Across defensive, longer-WALE exposures, the broker's order of preference is Centuria Industrial REIT ((CIP)), BWP Trust and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT ((CLW)).

Buy. Target cut to $4.10 from $4.16.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.46
If BWP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIP as Buy (1) -

Centuria Industrial REIT’s FY25 result was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts, with funds from operations (FFO) per share of 17.5c matching the broker's forecast and consensus.

FY26 guidance FFO/share of 18.0-18.5c came in 3% ahead of forecasts by Bell Potter and consensus. Management also guided to 16.8c distribution.

The broker highlights a $60m buyback (around 3% of shares) as a positive momentum signal and sees potential upside of 1.8c/share from re-leasing vacant space, despite occupancy slipping to 95.1%.

Bell Potter lifts its target price to $3.65 from $3.35 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.34
If CIP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Neutral (3) -

Centuria Industrial REIT announced FY25 operating EPS of 17.5c, which met expectations, with FY26 funds from operations guidance set at 18–18.5c, coming in above both Macquarie's and consensus estimates.

Up to a $60m buyback was announced to assist in shrinking the discount the REIT trades on relative to its June 30 NTA of $3.92.

Management indicated an intention to lower the payout ratio to around 90% as the funds from operations grow and debt costs are trimmed.

Around -$100m in development starts annually are targeted, with the aim for a yield on cost of over 6.5%, which could add circa 100–150bps to funds generated.

Macquarie lifts its earnings forecasts by 2.4% for FY26 and 4.4% for FY27. Neutral rated with a $3.29 target price.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CIP as Equal-weight (3) -

Centuria Industrial REIT announced FY25 funds from operations of 17.5c with a dividend of 16.3c per share, which were as expected.

Morgan Stanley highlights FY26 guidance was offered for the first time, with funds from operations of 18–18.5c, slightly above consensus, and dividend per share of 16.8c, a rise of 3% on FY25.

The REIT also announced a $60m share buyback underpinned by asset sales, with the stock trading at an estimated -18% discount to its new NTA of $3.92.

Centuria Industrial's $300m exchangeable note is nearing redemption in March 2026 with an exchange price of $3.95, well above the share price.

Equal-weight rating and $3.31 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.31 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0
If CIP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIP as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Centuria Industrial REIT's FY25 FFO was in line with guidance but missed its forecast by -1%, and for FY26 its forecast is at the top end of the guidance.

The broker notes the 18.0-18.5c FY26 guidance is wide but likely conservative, with management having a track record of outperforming guidance. FY27-29 forecasts upgraded by 1% as the broker reckons the $60m buyback and lower terminal debt costs support FFO.

Across defensive, longer-WALE exposures, the broker's order of preference is Centuria Industrial REIT, BWP Trust ((BWP)) and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT ((CLW)).

Buy. Target rises to $3.95 from $3.92.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.64
If CIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Yum! Brands' 2Q25 result has a favourable implication for Collins Foods, as it showed KFC Australia sales (including NZ) accelerate to 3% from 1% in 1Q. 

The outcome is consistent with the sequential improvement reported by the company for the first eight weeks of 1H26 (starting April 27) to 1.6% from around 0.6% in 2H25.

The broker reminds consensus for KFC Australia same-store sales growth for 1H26 is 1.9% vs its own estimate of 1.6%. Buy. Target price $10.13.

Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $9.04 Difference: $1.09
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.16, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY26 guidance beat the consensus by 3% largely due to $229m of acquisitions completed in July 2025 at a 9% yield, offset by -$55m of divestments. Excluding this, it was in line with expectations.

Citi notes gearing rose above 40% but it still sees the stock as attractive due to -7% discount to NTA, especially in the context of asset values having bottomed. Reduction in market interest costs means debt costs are a tailwind now.

Buy. Target price $4.40. 

The broker has a short-term upside view expiring August 19.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.13
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Underperform (5) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT looks like it might be returning to growth, with FY26 operational EPS guidance coming in around 3% above consensus forecasts, with growth of 2% flagged on FY25 result of 25c per share, Macquarie details.

Commentary points out the REIT completed in excess of $800m in asset sales over the last two years, which has resulted in a better-quality property portfolio, which also took pressure off the balance sheet and facilitated a $50m buyback and capital of $229m for acquisitions.

The analyst believes the REIT has navigated the worst, with an improving outlook for operational EPS, but the valuation is considered unattractive, though the stock trading is at a discount to its estimated NTA valuation ($4.59) of -7%.

Macquarie is anticipating further cap rate expansion. Target price rises 2% to $3.62. No change to Underperform rating.

Target price is $3.62 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CLW as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley was pleasantly surprised by Charter Hall Long WALE REIT guiding to FY26 funds from operations and dividend per share of 25.5c, which reflects growth of 2% on FY25, the first growth since FY22. The stock is expected to outperform post results.

Market expectations had been for no growth, so an improved outlook appears to have been underpinned by a better debt hedging profile at "attractive" rates, according to the analyst.

Overhanging the REIT is the FY26 lease expiry for Telstra Canberra Head Office, with the tenant leaving, and a newly acquired asset, a 49.9% stake in Campbell Park Defence for -$44m, has only two years remaining on the lease.

Equal-weight rating unchanged. Target set at $4.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.23
If CLW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY25 funds from operations (FFO) met guidance, while FY26 guidance was ahead of market expectations.

The REIT continues to deliver steady 3-3.25% annual earnings growth underpinned by nearly full occupancy and long-term leases, highlight the analysts. Less positively, weighted average lease expiry (WALE) declined to 9.3 years from 9.7 years.

Around 54% of properties are essential to tenants’ operations, highlights Ord Minnett, supporting potential lease extensions.

Following -$230m in post-June acquisitions, Ord Minnett raises its FY26-28 FFO and distribution forecasts by 5-6%, but flags gearing rising to 41% pro forma, which could constrain distribution growth given a 100% payout ratio.

Ord Minnett lifts its target price to $4.20 from $4.10 and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY25 result was in line with expectations but FY26 guidance was 6% higher than UBS' forecast and 3% more than the consensus on higher hedging and acquisitions income.

The broker notes pro-forma gearing rose to over 40% from 39% but is expected to moderate over time as income growth continues. The broker reckons earnings growth will be needed to close the -7% gap to NTA and there's evidence of this happening.

The broker lifted FY26-30 earnings forecast by an average 7% after factoring in revised hedging profile and base rate of 3.4% vs 3.6% earlier.

Across defensive, longer-WALE exposures, the broker's order of preference is Centuria Industrial REIT ((CIP)), BWP Trust ((BWP)) and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT.

Neutral. Target rises to $4.55 from $4.33.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.28
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNE as Buy (1) -

Genesis Energy signed a 10-year strategic reserve agreement with three other gen-tailers in New Zealand; Contact Energy ((CEN)), Mercury Energy and Metgasco.

The agreement is for a capacity of 150MW split equally between the four, and is aimed at addressing dry year insurance. 

UBS notes the agreement may justify extending the life of the company's Rankine Unit 2 beyond its current retirement date. This is likely especially if fixed premiums of NZ$20-25m a year can fully fund its operating and capital needs.

The broker will wait more details about the agreement at the FY25 results on August 26.

Buy. Target unchanged at NZ$2.90.

Current Price is $2.13. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IFM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Infomedia has agreed to a scheme implementation with TPG (private equity) offering $1.72 per share in cash, adjusted for permitted fully franked dividends totalling up to 4.9c.

These include a 2.0c final and 2.9c special dividend, which Bell Potter notes could deliver up to 2.1c in franking credits to eligible shareholders.

The board recommends the proposal, with the scheme meeting expected in November and no competing bids anticipated.

The broker has not adjusted its revenue or earnings forecasts, though it now assumes the full 4.9c payout in FY25, changing the dividend mix but not the total.

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $1.72 from $1.75 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.04
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Iluka Resources announced Lindian Resources ((LIN)) will supply 6ktpa of monazite concentrate from the Kangankunde project in Malawi over 15 years, which represents around 10% of Eneabba refinery's capacity.

In return, Iluka has agreed to a US$20m loan facility with a five-year term. Pricing of the concentrate will be linked to the price realised by Iluka from the sale of NdPr oxide products.

Morgan Stanley believes the proposal is a positive; it provides more feedstock for Iluka's refinery.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $5.55. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

In its latest catalyst driven idea, Morgan Stanley sees the FY25 result on August 19 as key for Judo Capital.

It's felt investor focus will be squarely on the update to FY26 guidance and the first-time disclosure of loan, margin, cost, and loan loss metrics.

The broker’s base case assumes management maintains FY26 profit (PBT) growth guidance at 50%, with loans of $14.5–14.8bn, a margin of 3.0–3.1%, mid-single-digit cost growth, and loan losses similar to FY25.

A more bullish scenario, suggest the analysts, would see upgraded FY26 profit growth to 60%, stronger loan growth, higher margins, and lower losses, potentially driving more than 15% share price upside.

The broker feels a weaker outcome, including lower growth and higher losses, could see the share price fall below $1.35, implying -15% or more downside.

Morgan Stanley expects Scenario 1 and sees upcoming guidance as supportive of upside earnings risk, with potential valuation support around $1.65.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $2.10. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.49
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Citi has flagged potential for corporate governance criticism ("noise") directed at James Hardie Industries given the company hasn't announced a date for its AGM which needs to be held within five months of financial year end.

The AGM is typically held in the August month and needs 28-day notice. As August now looks likely, the broker wonders if there's been a waiver or perhaps this is the result of incorporation in Ireland?

The broker highlights the chair position is up for re-election at the AGM, suggesting there's clear incentive to bring in supportive or neutral shareholders or engage existing holders to proactively vote in favor.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $41.50.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $43.47 Difference: minus $1.97 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.97, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

News Corp announced 4Q25 earnings (EBITDA) of US$322m, a rise of 5% on a year earlier and 4% above consensus forecast, according to Macquarie, due to a beat for Dow Jones and Digital Real Estate Services. Book Publishing and News Media came in lower than expected.

For FY25, earnings (EBITDA) grew 14% on FY24, which was broadly in line. Management announced a US$1.3bn buyback acceleration to capitalise on the view that News Corp's businesses are undervalued.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimates by -2% for FY26 and -3% for FY27, with a downgrade in the rating to Neutral from Outperform due to the spot valuation for REA Group ((REA)), which is at the highest level since early 2018, excluding covid.

Target price is set at $57.80.

Target price is $57.80 Current Price is $55.30 Difference: $2.5
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.93, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views News Corp’s FY25 result as supportive of its positive thesis, with a move to a net cash position of US$420m post the Foxtel exit enhancing financial flexibility.

The broker believes earnings growth is now anchored in REA Group ((REA)) and Dow Jones.

Earnings (EBITDA) are forecast to grow at a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and EPS at 20% CAGR from FY24-27, as lower capex and reduced debt strengthen free cash flow, explain the analysts.

The broker estimates a US$1.3bn buyback would lift FY26 EPS by 2-5%, while noting potential for even greater returns through EPS-accretive M&A, citing strong execution in prior tuck-in deals.

Morgan Stanley raises its target price to US$38.00 from US$37.00 and maintains an Overweight rating. Industry View: Attractive.

Current Price is $55.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $62.93, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

UBS describes News Corp's 4Q25 result as solid, with EBITDA of US$322m beating consensus by 4% on improved performance by Realtor.com/Move and outperformance by the Dow Jones segment.

The broker sees Dow Jones as especially important as most the company's valuation lays there. The unit saw 10% earnings growth on 90bps margin expansion and higher revenue. 

Net subscriber addition in the Wall Street Journal was another positive surprise.

FY26 guidance was not provided. The broker is forecasting 10% rise in FY26 EBITDA to US$1.56bn. Minor changes to forecasts have resulted in a 1% increase to FY26 EPS estimate and 4% to FY27.

Buy. Target unchanged at $70.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $55.30 Difference: $14.7
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.93, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans downgrades Pinnacle Investment Management to Accumulate from Buy, with the stock viewed as richly priced at current levels.

Like other brokers, Morgans pointed to Life Cycle as the standout from FY25 results, with the affiliate receiving inflows of around $14bn in 2H25 and group funds under management rising 15.4% for the second half to $179.4bn.

Inflows for 2H25 were $16.4bn, comprised of $10.2bn in 4Q25 compared to $6.2bn in 1Q25, with retail $3.2bn, international $4bn, and domestic institutional $9.2bn.

Morgans raises its EPS estimates by 2.6% for FY26 and 2.2% for FY27, with net profit growth largely underpinned by Life Cycle revenue contribution.

Target price is raised to $26.30 from $23.80, with expansion offshore viewed as early in its cycle.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $1.09
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.36, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has fine-tuned its FY25 forecasts for Perpetual following the July 22 funds under management (FUM) update, reducing the expected final dividend to 64c from 67c.

While underlying profit after tax strips out non-cash items, the analysts highlight some significant costs related to transactions and restructuring are or will become cash, impacting dividends and net debt.

The broker adjusts cost growth assumptions to the mid-point of Perpetual’s guided 3-4% range and reviews historical cash flow variances to better reflect true underlying performance.

An improvement in cash generation is expected post-Wealth Management divestment.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $23.00 from $22.80 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $1.61
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.47, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

REA Group's FY25 core net profit of $564m was in line with the consensus but beat Citi's forecast by 2%. Strong residential and India revenue and in-line costs contributed to the outperformance vs the broker.

Following the result call, the broker described the company's confidence in delivering double-digit yield growth and operating leverage beyond FY26 as the highlight.

The broker remains confident in the 2-3 year outlook based on solid execution, though doubt remains about the need to increase spending to beat competition.

Buy. Target price $275.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $254.50 Difference: $20.5
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.43, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group reported FY25 net profit after tax growth of 23% ex minorities, which was in line with both Macquarie's expectations and consensus. The dividend of $2.48 was up 31% on a year earlier and better than anticipated.

Residential revenue growth was achieved by 14% points in buy yield and 1% point in volume listings growth, with 3% points from group operating jaws (difference between revenue and cost growth).

India earnings (EBITDA) losses were -$28m but better by 21% on a year earlier and above expectations, with the scheduled sale of the PropTiger business to focus on Housing.com in India.

Macquarie remains concerned that REA valuation is vulnerable to disruption from competition and/or via the new CEO seeking to reset expectations for the earnings outlook.

Neutral rating maintained. Target price slips to $255 from $260 on the back of a -2% downward revision in FY26 EPS estimate.

With cash on hand of $429m, management is intending to sustain a higher dividend payout ratio, with the broker estimating 55% in FY26.

Target price is $255.00 Current Price is $254.50 Difference: $0.5
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.43, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

REA Group reported a surprise dividend for 2H25, with FY25 earnings largely meeting Morgans' expectations and consensus. The final dividend of 138c was around 12% above consensus.

Australia residential revenue grew 16%, underpinned by 14% yield growth, with national new listing volumes rising only 1%. REA India grew at 25% on the prior period.

Management reiterated guidance for double-digit yield growth for FY26, with the analyst forecasting 12%. Morgans lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by around -2% to -3% for FY26/FY27.

Hold rating retained, as the stock is trading around one standard deviation above its ten-year average valuation. Target price rises to $257 from $250.

Target price is $257.00 Current Price is $254.50 Difference: $2.5
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.43, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Hold (3) -

REA Group’s FY25 final dividend exceeded market expectations, highlights Ord Minnett, while management signaled it would maintain positive 'jaws' (difference between sales and costs) into FY26 and FY27.

Operating earnings rose 18% year-on-year, in line with the broker’s forecasts, though no formal earnings guidance was issued as the CEO prepares to depart.

Ord Minnett expects the incoming leadership to retain the company's strategy focused on double-digit yield growth, underpinned by dominant market position and pricing power.

The broker's EPS forecasts were trimmed slightly by -0.1% to -0.4% over FY26-28, though the analyst expects continued strong fundamentals following Domain’ Holdings Australia's ((DHG)) de-listing as CoStar is about to take ownership.

The Hold rating and $260 target are maintained.

Target price is $260.00 Current Price is $254.50 Difference: $5.5
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.43, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

UBS notes REA Group's FY25 result was strong and in line with expectations, with the highlight being a 7% beat on dividend vs its forecast and 8% vs the consensus.

Outlook included cost growth expectation of high single digit on marketing spend to counter incoming CoStar ((DHG)) competition and yield growth supported by 7% price increase.

Flat y/y volume is expected in FY26, but the broker sees upside risk on strong buyer demand and rising auction clearance rates.

FY26-28 EBITDA forecasts downgraded by -1% on the cost guidance which was higher than the broker's estimate. EPS forecast changes are minor.

Buy. Target unchanged at $290.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $254.50 Difference: $35.5
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.43, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SGH as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes June quarter mining equipment orders across Asia Pacific were steady year-on-year, with sales up due to backlog delivery.

The broker points out this outcome points to softer FY26 revenue growth for SGH Ltd's WesTrac at 5.7% versus 11.7% in FY25.

Commentary suggests WesTrac faces pressure from Caterpillar’s negative pricing trends and the lack of component price increases expected in July.

In construction, engineering work slowed to 5.7% year-on-year in the March quarter, the weakest since September 2021, notes Bell Potter. More positively, non-residential approvals rose 22% year-on-year in 2H FY25, offering some support for Boral and Coates.

The broker lowers its FY25-27 revenue and EBIT forecasts across all divisions and now expects group EBIT growth of 8.4% in FY25 and 6.2% in FY26, in line with guidance.

Bell Potter makes no change to its $54.00 target price and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $50.85 Difference: $3.15
If SGH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.30, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

The Super Retail share price has rallied over 20% since mid-April, which Morgans believes is driven by market expectations of capital management initiatives by the company, with moderating pressures in the automotive sector.

On the back of some caution around the underlying upcoming FY25 earnings report, the analyst downgrades the stock to Hold from Accumulate and is forecasting sales growth of 3.4% against last year and pressure on the earnings before interest and tax margin of -70bps.

Further cost headwinds are also flagged going into FY26. Target price retained at $16.15 and no change to the analyst's EPS estimates.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $15.85 Difference: $0.3
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.69, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie articulates that Treasury Wine Estates' share price is possibly reflective of weak secular growth, premium price exhaustion, and worries around Gen Z drinking trends, which has raised concerns over the viability of the longer-term outlook of the liquor industry.

Separating out the Luxury business, the analyst estimates an enterprise value of around $6.8bn, and suggestsz this is the main reason investors buy the stock.

The 2024 En Primeur (EP) Bordeaux wines benchmark for the fine wine market was described as "dysfunctional," with a price fall of -30% on the vintage 23.

For Treasury Wine, this is a big issue as strategically it has been putting through robust price rises for the last ten years.

Macquarie's EPS estimates are lowered by -1% for FY25 and -3% for FY26 ahead of the earnings report on August 13. Neutral rated.

Target price slips -5% to $8.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: $0.32
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.50, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources