Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 4DX as Speculative Buy (1) -

4DMedical delivered an FY24 earnings loss of -$30.5m compared to Ord Minnett's -$27.9m forecast. The formalisation of the Philips reseller agreement continues to take longer than expected but the broker notes it is progressing positively and remains a key catalyst.

FY24 was a seminal year, the broker notes, with a run of material commercialisation milestones establishing a pathway for rapid revenue generation.

4DMedical remains well positioned to disrupt the global respiratory diagnostics market and Ord Minnett expects the share price to re-rate strongly post the Philips agreement.

Target falls to $1.05 from $1.20, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.61
If 4DX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AFG as Neutral (3) -

After a further review (see summary of orginal take below) of FY24 results for Australian Finance Group, Citi raises its target to $1.65 from $1.45 and maintains a Neutral rating.

The broker anticipates better returns from both segments, despite caution around the pace of the near-term earnings recovery. (This research was released yesterday by Citi).

At first glance, Australian Finance Group reported FY24 profit -4% below Citi. Relative to forecasts, the miss was largely due to lower net broker commissions, as the Distribution business recorded slightly lower settlements.

Positively, the broker saw a stabilisation in the retention ratios across both the upfront and trail commissions in 2H24. Broker numbers increased by 5% half on half, which will be additive to growing broker penetration over time.

The broker suggests this could be an early indication the group's technology investment is resonating with the market. Citi thinks the market will look through a slight miss in net interest margin given the sequential profit stabilisation and expected better manufacturing conditions.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.05
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Alcidion Group delivered FY24 earnings that were at the lower end of guidance. Bell Potter assesses the result reflects a challenging year as persistent tender delays in the NHS resulted in UK revenue declining -10% and Australasian sales declining -7%.

Contracted and renewal revenue for FY25 as of August is $28m, below the comparable amount for FY24. The broker decreases near-term revenue forecasts and also revises down FY26-27 estimates, given a lower base for FY25.

Target is reduced to 7c from 8c and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals reported earnings which met Macquarie's expectations, with mixed FY25 guidance including weaker base metals, stronger gold and lower opex but more elevated capex.

The broker highlights the ongoing transition of Aurelia Metals to base metals from gold with the percentage of revenue from the latter to decline to an estimated 50% in FY25 from around 59% in FY24.

In part this reflects Dargues gold mine going into care and maintenance.

Macquarie tweaks EPS forecasts by -5% in FY26.

An Outperform rating with a 25c target are retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.095
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes APA Group has released a second Basslink discussion paper regarding re-regulation. The consultation paper does not explicitly reject conversion of Basslink but highlights the benefits are marginal, or less than the cost of regulation using the company's proposed RAB of $813m and assuming Marinus Link is developed.

The broker believes the discussion over Basslink adds to earnings uncertainty, as the potential step up in contributions is likely to be smaller than currently anticipated. A rejection of regulation means APA Group will either need to extend the contract with Hydro Tasmania or trade the asset in the national electricity market. Outperform rating. Target is $8.47.

Target price is $8.47 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $0.94
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.61, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APX as Lighten (4) -

Appen's formal first half results provided little new information given the company’s quarterly update in late July, but greater detail on growing demand for its machine-learning datasets in generative AI models was welcomed by Ord Minnett.

Appen noted GenAI applications and models accounted for 28% of its revenue in June, and 15% over the first half. This share will continue to rise, although the company warned it was still early days in the segment and that growth was likely to prove lumpy.

Ord Minnett has made minimal changes to estimates but its target rises to $1.00 from 60c. A Lighten rating is retained until more evidence of a continued and sustainable recovery in revenue emerges.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ASB as Buy (1) -

Austal posted FY24 revenue that missed Bell Potter's estimates because of a lower contribution from shipbuilding. Weak operating cash flow was largely driven by the onerous T-ATS and AFDM contracts and a poor performance in Australasia.

The broker downgrades short-term revenue forecasts but makes more substantial upgrades to longer-term estimates based on the strong growth in the support segment and a growing pipeline of work in Australasian shipbuilding driven by Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with the government.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.75 from $2.85.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.48
If ASB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASB as Neutral (3) -

More robust US margins and strong results from the support business boosted the FY24 Austal earnings, coming in above Macquarie's forecast, although revenue was some -13% below estimates.

The broker observes Australasia reported a loss because of limited commercial work in Asia and a reduced contribution from Australian defence/Patrol boat. This is not anticipated to reoccur in FY25.

Management offered no guidance, but some should be provided at or around the AGM. The order book stands at $12.7bn and new contracts in the US continue as well as the Strategic Shipbuilding agreement with the government.

EPS forecasts are revised by -4% in FY25 and -1% in FY26.

Target price moves to $2.50 from $2.55. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.23
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

FY24 EBITDA was lower than Macquarie's forecast by -16% and -13% below consensus for Bellevue Gold because of higher operating costs.

The broker points to slightly mixed results with depreciation/amortisation charges higher than expected and the company declared production at Bellevue in May 2024 which complicates cost calculations. Tax came in as a benefit and not a charge as anticipated.

Net debt was slightly better than expectations due to lower accrued interest, with $120m from a $150 capital raise used to repay debt.

Management did not change FY25 production and cost guidance.

Outperform and $1.70 target retained for now.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.55
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 45.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Bellevue Gold's FY24 operating earnings missed consensus forecasts by some margin, albeit largely due to the accounting treatment of expensed versus capitalised costs in the accounts, Ord Minnett notes.

The important issue from the second half was its eponymous mine in Western Australia entering production at a commercial scale. FY25 production and cost guidance was reiterated.

Target unchanged at $1.25 but Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Sell, with the more than -9% fall in the share price after the result
bringing the risk-reward closer to being in balance.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.1
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 45.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a softer year ahead for both oil and LNG exposures on the ASX and lowers its industry view to In-Line from Attractive. It's thought the softer outlook will subdue company free cash flows (FCFs) and their EPS outlooks.

For upstream exploration and production, the broker expects a downside risk skew to commodity prices, and an uptick in capex and investment.

Within refining and retail, average crack spreads have fallen and the analysts note headwinds in retail fuel volumes due to consumer sentiment/cost of living concerns.

Among stocks under coverage by Morgan Stanley in the sector Overweight-rated Santos is preferred while Beach Energy (Underweight) is the least preferred. 

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Conrad Asia Energy has a binding gas sales agreement with Sembcorp Gas for the export portion of natural gas from the Mako field. The company now has binding offtake commitments for all the Mako contingent resources.

Bell Potter considers this a significant de-risking milestone, as the company can now progress a farm-down of equity and debt financing. Speculative Buy rating unchanged. Target rises to $1.90 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.76
If CRD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DDR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has upgraded its rating for Dicker Data to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $10, up from $9.65 previously.

The broker notes increased headcount investment to support major new vendor wins plus a circa -$2m higher provision expense caused the H1 profit before tax to miss its forecast by -9% but the broker's confidence in the top-line growth trajectory into 2H24/FY25 has improved.

EPS forecasts have been cut by some -3% (higher costs) and the broker finds the share price "defendable", while suggesting the fall post results release looks too much of an exaggeration.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.23 Difference: $0.77
If DDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGL as Hold (3) -

DGL Group provided a FY24 result that was slightly softer than Bell Potter expected. Underlying net profit missed estimates because of higher depreciation and interest costs.

No quantitative guidance was available although the company expects positive contributions to profitability from organic growth and efficiencies in FY25.

The broker makes significant negative revisions to FY25 and FY26 EPS of -16% and -15%, respectively, to reflect a higher run rate for depreciation. While future earnings uncertainty persists, a Hold rating is retained. Target is reduced to $0.55 from $0.65.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.06
If DGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DGL as Hold (3) -

FY24 proved to be a challenging year for DGL Group, Morgans notes, as flat revenue along with increased D&A resulted in an earnings decline of -20% year on year, due to higher D&A and interest charges associated with acquisitions, plant expansions and fleet depreciation.

While management expects ongoing growth in FY25 from acquisitions, organic growth investments and efficiency initiatives, the broker warns the outlook for DGL remains uncertain.

Cyclical demand for agri chemicals remains relatively weak, with benchmark chemical prices well off the record pricing achieved in prior years. Target falls to 55c from 65c, Hold retained.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.06
If DGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGL as Neutral (3) -

UBS saw DGL Group release FY24 financials that showed operationally the company's performance was in line with expectations, but an elevated level of investment is now causing a higher-than-forecast run rate of depreciation.

Higher net debt is cranking up the servicing costs. With organic growth subdued, margins are depressed by incremental investments in IT and acquisitions.

UBS sees little reasons to change its Neutral rating. Target drops to 59c from 75c. Earnings forecasts have been lowered.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.1
If DGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ECF as Hold (3) -

Elanor Commercial Property Fund’s FY24 result was mixed versus Ord Minnett's expectations. While funds from operations were in line, guidance for FY25 FFO and dividend both fell below.

Look-through gearing increased to 46%, above the target gearing range, while the Harris Street Fund breached loan-to-value covenants and requires a capital injection to meet lender requirements.

With cap rates expanding a further 40bps in the second half, the broker believes asset values are unlikely to have bottomed out. Target falls to 67c from 74c, Hold retained.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.04
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EMR as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Emerald Resources posted FY24 operating earnings largely matching Ord Minnett's forecasts once hedging revaluations and increased
write-offs related to exploration were incorporated into the numbers.

The company plans to expand its gold output to more than 300,000ozpa within five years, as its Dingo/Bullseye project in WA and the Mernot mine in Cambodia start production.

Emerald Resources possesses a strong balance sheet and a solid track record of operational performance, the broker notes, along with growth options, but at current valuation levels the stock is overvalued, leading Ord Minnett to downgrade to Sell from Hold.

Target unchanged at $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If EMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVS as Hold (3) -

Hitachi Construction Machinery will invest $10m at $0.058 a share to acquire 12% of EnviroSuite, to become its largest single shareholder. The investment is part of a collaboration agreement between the two companies to pursue ESG and net zero market opportunities in the mining sector.

Bell Potter makes no changes to revenue or EBITDA estimates yet considers the cash injection a positive, as the balance sheet had previously been weak and was restricting the company from making the necessary investment.

Hold rating is maintained. Target rises to 5c from 4c.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Sell (5) -

Fletcher Building has presented a Joint Industry Response (JIR) pertaining to the ongoing Iplex pipes issue.

The company expects to record a -NZ$155m provision in FY25 which assumes BGC participate in the JIR, which Citi points out BGC hasn't agreed upon.

In short, the broker suggests a conclusion to this resolution and the amounts involved are still largely unknown.

The NZ$2.97 target and Sell rating are retained.

This research was released yesterday by Citi.

Current Price is $2.69. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie reviews its earnings model and outlook for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare on the back of positive momentum in FY24 results.

Homecare delivered 18% revenue growth in FY24 with good uptake of the Evora mask. The analyst forecasts 14% growth in FY25 including new product launches and robust demand.

Industry feedback, the broker highlights, points to a rise in new patient demand with the potential FDA approval of Zepbound (GLP-1 RA).

Macquarie expects revenue growth of around 13% p.a. over FY24-FY27 with 27% EPS growth from better margin recovery and operating leverage.

New apps revenue growth is also expected from nasal high flow and an opportunity in anaesthesia over the next decade.

EPS forecasts are lifted by 3% in FY25 and 5% in FY26 with an upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

Target rises to NZ$39.20 from NZ$27.85.

Current Price is $33.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $23.06, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to updated FY25 production, all-in-sustaining costs and capex guidance from Genesis Minerals which met the analyst's expectations, but all were above consensus estimates, particularly capex.

Management made no changes to the longer- term plans (5-10 years) despite the earlier than anticipated restart of Laverton. Macquarie forecasts around 10koz p.a. above the plan of production from FY26-FY29 for Laverton.

EPS forecasts are adjusted by 2% in FY25. Outperform. Target is steady at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.2
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners continues to like Genesis Minerals as a pure organic gold play with management upgrading FY25 production targets for the earlier than expected re-start of Laverton.

FY25 production guidance has risen to 190koz-210koz from 162koz-188koz. The broker forecasts Leonora mill to contribute 162.6koz from 154.6koz previously and Laverton at 36.1koz from 10.7koz.

All-in-sustaining-costs for FY25 are forecast as $2472/oz with the analyst lifting FY25 EPS estimate by 34%.

Buy, High Risk rating with a $2.80 target price, raised from $2.75.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.6
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi identifies market concerns FY25 may be a lower growth year for Goodman Group with slower industrial growth prior to the Data Center development portfolio coming online.

In a point underappreciated by the market, in the broker's view, Data Center revenue recognition varies and is recognised before completion of the Data Center pipeline.

Citi predicts strong underlying EPS growth in FY25 supported by Data Center and industrial development earnings that are recognised on a stage-of-completion basis.

Buy rating and $40 target unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $33.33 Difference: $6.67
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.19, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCL as Speculative Buy (1) -

FY24 results from HighCom revealed a better-than-expected EBITDA loss of -$9.6m. Bell Potter observes a strong start to FY25 with material ballistics contract gains contributing to a contracted revenue backlog of $23.4m.

Forecasts are updated and while there are no changes to revenue forecasts at this stage, the broker notes the current backlog provides greater confidence. Speculative Buy rating and $0.35 target maintained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.175
If HCL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Upon further review, UBS makes two points: the outlook for Franchisees looks better and the international operations, while under-appreciated by the market, are facing a tough consumer environment.

The broker has reduced its target to $5 from $5.50. Buy rating retained. Forecasts have been culled.

UBS's initial response:

Harvey Norman's pre-tax profit in FY24 was ahead of UBS estimates, underpinned by franchising operations. Higher tax meant net profit was below forecasts, largely stemming from a deferred tax increase in New Zealand.

Trading at the commencement of the first half has improved and the broker notes it is ahead of competitors The Good Guys and Nick Scali. Expansion in Hungary, that was planned for FY25, has ceased because of unfavourable conditions.

Store openings slated for FY25 include 10 in Malaysia, two in New Zealand, and two in Australia with an additional two relocations. A second store is slated for the UK in FY26. Buy rating and $5.50 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.4
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Another deep dive into sector dynamics for global lithium has further soured price forecasts at UBS. Having reduced price forecasts recently, UBS has now further cut by -3-26% across 2025-28.

UBS is now convinced there will be more supply coming out of Africa.

The rating for IGO Ltd is hereby lowered to Sell from Neutral. Price target falls to $4.95 from $5.40 on reduced forecasts.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTM as Re-initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Another deep dive into sector dynamics for global lithium has further soured price forecasts at UBS. Having reduced price forecasts recently, UBS has now further cut by -3-26% across 2025-28.

UBS is now convinced there will be more supply coming out of Africa.

Arcadium Lithium has made a come-back into the broker's research universe with a Neutral rating and $4.45 price target.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.56
If LTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 73.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Another deep dive into sector dynamics for global lithium has further soured price forecasts at UBS. Having reduced price forecasts recently, UBS has now further cut by -3-26% across 2025-28.

UBS is now convinced there will be more supply coming out of Africa.

The rating for Liontown Resources is hereby lowered to Sell from Neutral. Price target falls to $0.70 on reduced forecasts.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 65.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Neutral (3) -

Michael Hill's FY24 results on August 30 highlighted to Citi the re-positioning of the business with a multi-brand strategy. Management is targeting higher margin products, and a new brand is in a trial phase.

Management's FY25 trading update looked promising for Australia and Canada, in the broker's view, but weakness in New Zealand
continues.

While the target falls to 57c from 66c on lower earnings (EBIT) forecasts across FY25 and FY26, the broker believes the business will be more resilient as the core brand resonates with customers. A path of store profitable store-rollout (Bevilles expansion) is also noted.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.03
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

Michael Hill reported FY24 results which were in line with the recent trading update. FY24 earnings before tax and interest fell -73% on the previous corresponding period.

Macquarie highlights the soft results from NZ as revenues slipped -12% and margins declined by 670 basis points.

In the first eight weeks of FY25, group same store sales rose 2.7%, with Australia up 5%, Canada up 4% and NZ down -6.2%.

With higher cost pressures and volatile trading conditions, Macquarie revises EPS forecasts by -18% in FY25 and -23% in FY26.

Outperform rating unchanged with momentum expected to shift over FY25. Target price moves to NZ73c from NZ81c.

Current Price is $0.54. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

Mineral Resources' FY24 underlying profit was ahead of market expectations but down -79% year-on-year as the impact of the lithium price slump hit home.

Taking a cautious approach, the company did not declare a final dividend, bolstering its cash position as it deals with the extended lithium price fall and investment at its Mt Marion lithium mine and its Onslow iron ore development.

Guidance for FY25 volumes in both its lithium and iron ore operations fell short of Ord Minnett's expectations, lithium materially so. The broker forecasts no dividend in FY25 as Mineral Resources adjusts to suit the current difficult environment for lithium producers.

Target falls to $56.60 from $60.00, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $56.60 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $17.09
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.66, suggesting upside of 53.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Sell (5) -

Another deep dive into sector dynamics for global lithium has further soured price forecasts at UBS. Having reduced price forecasts recently, UBS has now further cut by -3-26% across 2025-28.

UBS is now convinced there will be more supply coming out of Africa.

Mineral Resources is rated Sell with a reduced price target of $41.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $1.49
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.66, suggesting upside of 53.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MTO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Motorcycle Holdings reported profit down -39% year on year but up 14% half on half, exceeding Morgans' expectations. Recent acquisitions (primarily Mojo) have continued to offset challenging market conditions in the core business.

The broker notes improving trade conditions through May/June have continued into 1H25, the cost base is stabilising, and margins are expected to improve in FY25.

The broker is encouraged by the cost stability delivered through FY24, market share gains in a cyclically low market, improving performance to start FY25 and clear intent to deleverage the balance sheet.

Despite the recent share price rally, Morgans views Motorcycle Holdings as well placed should industry volumes recover. Target rises to $1.90 from $1.40, upgrade to Add from Hold.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.395
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Following New Hope's quarterly activities report (around a fortnight ago), Citi explains lower-than-expected 4Q coal sales were responsible for FY24 group production of 8.7mt compared to guidance for circa 9.2mt.

The broker notes rail cancellations and resulting stockpile constraints at Bengalla led to lower saleable production. More positively, New Acland achieved 0.84mt coal sales, ahead of 0.8mt FY24 guidance.

The Neutral rating and $4.85 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $0.34
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Buy, High Risk (1) -

First half earnings (EBITDA) for Nickel Industries matched Citi's forecast while the 2.5c interim dividend beat the expected 1.18c due to a higher-than-guidance payout ratio of 65% of free cash flow.

The broker's Buy, High Risk rating is supported by NPI pricing back above US$12k/t with management seeing markets outside of China for NPI for the first time. By way of example, European stainless producers are purchasing NPI over scrap, observe the analysts.

The $1.05 target is unchanged.

This research was released yesterday by Citi.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.235
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWH as Initiation of Coverage with Add (1) -

NRW Holdings is a large civil contractor, contract miner and engineering & construction contractor to the resources and public infrastructure sectors in Australia.

Since the execution of this diversified growth strategy, NRW Holdings has delivered consistently strong earnings growth, Morgans notes.

The stock is trading towards the upper end of its valuation range but in the broker's view there’s still capacity to re-rate further, particularly if upgrades continue.

A premium to its history is justified given earnings momentum, diversification, balance sheet optionality and a robust outlook, Morgans argues.

Morgans initiates coverage with an Add rating and $3.85 target.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.27
If NWH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Another deep dive into sector dynamics for global lithium has further soured price forecasts at UBS. Having reduced price forecasts recently, UBS has now further cut by -3-26% across 2025-28.

UBS is now convinced there will be more supply coming out of Africa.

Pilbara Minerals is rated Sell with a reduced price target of $2, down from $2.20 previously.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -

In the wake of FY24 results for Perpetual, Morgan Stanley decides to lower its target to $20.60 from $22.40 given higher cost guidance. The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

A summary of the broker's initial esearch note on FY24 results follows.

Perpetual reported a slight beat in FY24, some 2% above Morgan Stanley's expectations and consensus, although diluted EPS was lower than forecast.

Investment gains came in better while net proceeds from Wealth & Trust were lower than anticipated and stranded costs higher.

Target price is $22.40 Current Price is $19.59 Difference: $2.81
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RDG as Buy (1) -

Resource Development posted revenue for FY24 that was in line with Bell Potter's estimates and reflected the work delivered for the Mineral Resources Onslow project by Central Systems and growth in garnet and HMC sales from the Lucky Bay project.

Bell Potter assesses achieving Lucky Bay nameplate capacity in the short term is key for earnings support to partially offset the reduced activity at Central Systems. Buy rating. Target is reduced to $0.034 from $0.055.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.007
If RDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Citi suggests yesterday's -8% share price fall for REA Group is overdone though acknowledges the potential acquisition of Rightmove in the UK could raise concerns (among investors) of more limited growth potential in Australia.

Assuming a 30% takeover premium and 5% cost synergy, the broker forecasts 15% EPS accretion for REA in FY26. A takeover at less than a 30% premium would be considered more compelling.

The analyst believes REA management could add strategic value, especially in Rightmove's goal to expand into Commercial and Mortgages. REA could also leverage data and insights to strengthen the Rightmove business, in the broker's view.

Target $230. Buy.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $207.44 Difference: $22.56
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $217.89, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Outperform (1) -

REA Group has responded to speculation regarding an acquisition of UK portal Rightmove. Macquarie assesses the company's release indicates it has not approached or made any offer.

The revenue opportunity is not so clear as the broker believes real estate portals already leverage expertise and, while there may be some cost efficiencies, there are structural differences that limit the revenue upside.

The broker concludes that a potential transaction could be around 18% accretive to EPS, assuming a 20% takeover premium to Rightmove's last close. Outperform. Target is $228.

Target price is $228.00 Current Price is $207.44 Difference: $20.56
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $217.89, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RHC as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Ramsay Health Care's FY24 underlying results were above the top end of updated guidance, driven by low single digit admissions growth across key geographies, tariff and indexation gains, but supported by lower tax and minority interest as operating profit was soft, Morgans notes.

While ongoing activity is encouraging, it is slowing, the broker warns, and when coupled with the lack of any noticeable progress on the strategic review and 2H weakness on additional headwinds and uncertainties, a near-term earnings recovery looks challenging.

Morgans has materially reduced FY25-26 earnings forecasts and cut its target to $44.77 from $56.54. Downgrade to Hold from Add.

Target price is $44.77 Current Price is $40.39 Difference: $4.38
If RHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.49, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a softer year ahead for both oil and LNG exposures on the ASX and lowers its industry view to In-Line from Attractive. It's thought the softer outlook will subdue company free cash flows (FCFs) and their EPS outlooks.

For upstream exploration and production, the broker expects a downside risk skew to commodity prices, and an uptick in capex and investment.

Within refining and retail, average crack spreads have fallen and the analysts note headwinds in retail fuel volumes due to consumer sentiment/cost of living concerns.

Among stocks under coverage by Morgan Stanley in the sector Overweight-rated Santos is preferred while Beach Energy (Underweight) is the least preferred. 

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $0.7
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes TPG Telecom 1H24 earnings results were in line with forecasts, as cost outs offset weaker revenues.

The analyst points to a "concerning" trend in mobile as postpaid declined -47k from the 3G shutdown, although July showed some improvement in growth. Prepaid was tepid at 13k additions and average revenue per user was flat on the previous half.

Management offered no comments on the potential Vocus deal. Operationally, the analyst notes an improvement in free cashflow and better operating leverage via cost management.

Macquarie raises FY24 EPS by 14% and 26% in FY25 because of lower opex/depreciation and amortisation versus softer mobile revenues.

Target price moves to $5.40 from $5.20. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.42
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources