Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For base metals, the broker prefers copper and nickel on supply tightness and likes (in order of preference) Evolution Mining (copper exposure), Nickel Industries, 29Metals and South32.

The broker's Overweight rating remains for 29Metals and the target rises to 55c from 50c. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.175
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners anticipates plenty of upside is left for the Jericho deposit, just south-east of the existing Eloise underground copper mine in WA, given only 22% of the entire Jericho mineral resource has converted to reserve.

Jericho Reserves now total 3.2mt, a significant increase (according to the broker) following incorporation of results from the 2023 drilling program and updated mine designs.

Buy, High Risk rating and 90c target retained. 

AIC Mines offers one of the few ways to invest in quality leveraged exposure to copper production on the ASX, highlight the analysts.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.545
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 154% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is constructive on refining margins for both Viva Energy and Ampol, though prefers Ampol based on petrol station positioning. The analysts are yet to see any obvious winning strategies from either company in electric vehicle charging.

The broker suggests Viva Energy could close the petrol station positioning gap via the On The Run rollout (acquisition completed March 28) and the Liberty Retail consolidation after 2024.

The broker's target for Ampol is $40. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $39.79 Difference: $0.21
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.98, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans raises its target for ALS Ltd to $13.70 from $13.35 after allowing for a slightly softer-than-expected trading update, an increase in Nuvisan ownership to 100% (at nil cost) and two acquisitions costing $225m.

The two acquisitions Life Sciences businesses in north-west US and Western Europe make strategic sense to the analyst though earnings/value accretion may require patience.

The broker rates ALS Ltd very highly but downgrades its rating to Hold from Add on valuation.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: $0.57
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.45, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Sell (5) -

ALS Ltd has warned it is now expecting underlying full year net profits to be at the lower end of $310-325m guidance range, a result of higher than expected corporate and interest costs.

Ord Minnett accordingly lowers its forecast to $310m, resulting in an expected earnings per share forecast of 64 cents and a dividend per share forecast of 38.4 cents.

Additionally, the company is set to acquire the remaining 51% of Nuvisan at no cost.

The Sell rating and target price of $8.90 are retained.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: minus $4.23 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.45, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For base metals, the broker prefers copper and nickel on supply tightness and likes (in order of preference) Evolution Mining (copper exposure), Nickel Industries, 29Metals and South32.

Morgan Stanley's rating for Alumina Ltd is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation with a target of $1.30, up from $1.10. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 4 cents for Antipa Minerals following announced results of the 2023 exploration program at the Paterson Farm-In Project.

Air core drilling at the Paterson Project (100% Antipa Minerals, IGO Farm-in) has expanded the AL01 target to 5km in length, explain the analysts.

Maiden diamond core drilling programs are scheduled to commence at the existing PPGRAV01 and PP-GRAV02 (Paterson Project) targets during early-April.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.028
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For iron ore, the broker lower its 2Q 2024 price forecast to US$110/t on stronger shipments but sees prices rising from the 2H of 2024 due to cost support and normalising inventories.

Rio Tinto is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure followed by Deterra Royalties, BHP Group and Fortescue.

The target for BHP Group rises to $47 from $44.50. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $44.27 Difference: $2.73
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.27, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has adjusted its annualised contracted revenue forecasts for Catapult International driven by taking a more conservative
approach and adopting the more typical 1H/2H split in ACV growth in FY24 where there is some skew towards the first half.

There is otherwise no change in revenue, earnings or cash flow forecasts. The broker has rolled forward its valuation and made adjustments for currency moves, resulting in a target increase to $1.50 from $1.43.

Hold retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter views Curragh’s second half 2023 earnings loss as the consequence of years of under-investment. Since 2021, Coronado Global Resources has expensed significant works to rectify inefficiencies at the complex, driving higher mining costs.

Coronado's 2024 guidance points to improved year-on-year metrics, which the broker attributes predominantly to efficiencies at Curragh. But port congestion at Gladstone may impact sales volumes and defer shipments later into Q1, into a weaker met coal price environment.

Bell Potter marks to market for coal prices and currency. Target falls to $1.65 from $1.85, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.4
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Cettire’s last update in February reported sales revenue up 80% year on year for the month of January. Bell Potter's March Q forecasts factor in the strong comparable period and sales revenue growth of 66% year on year.

The broker eagerly looks for updates on the China launch with market entry imminent.

Bell Potter has reduced the target multiple in its relative enterprise valuation, which results in a target price cut to $4.50 from $4.80. The broker considers the share price to now be fair, and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.45
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Positive operating conditions for new residential Buy listings are ongoing, Bell Potter notes, underpinned by low unemployment, population growth via migration, and a stabilising outlook for interest rates relative to the prior 18 months.

However given an aggressive pricing strategy and available listings data the broker downgrades its FY24-25 listings forecasts for Domain Holdings Australia, with yield growth also adjusted downwards, leading to earnings downgrades of -8%, -12% and -18% across FY24-26.

Target falls to $3.75 from $3.90, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.47
If DHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For iron ore, the broker lower its 2Q 2024 price forecast to US$110/t on stronger shipments but sees prices rising from the 2H of 2024 due to cost support and normalising inventories.

Rio Tinto is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure followed by Deterra Royalties, BHP Group and Fortescue.

The target for Deterra Royalties remains at $5.60. Overweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.67
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

Tailwinds are in place to support gold prices, according to the broker, with Evolution Mining, Regis Resources and Northern Star Resources the preferred exposures.

Evolution is also Morgan Stanley's favoured base metals exposure given around 30% of revenue derives from copper. Copper and nickel are the broker's preferred base metals.

The target for Evolution Mining eases to $3.90 from $3.95 and the Overweight rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.32
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners lowers its target for FireFly Metals to $1.10 from $1.20 after the company received $52m in commitments to accelerate drilling at the Green Bay copper-gold project in Newfoundland, Canada.

These funds were derived from a charity flow-through offering, a traditional flow-through offering, and a two-tranche institutional placement at an average price of 64c.

The broker highlights FireFly Metals is well positioned to benefit from stronger copper prices given high leverage to resource growth. The Buy, High Risk recommendation is maintained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.375
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For iron ore, the broker lower its 2Q 2024 price forecast to US$110/t on stronger shipments but sees prices rising from the 2H of 2024 due to cost support and normalising inventories.

Rio Tinto is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure followed by Deterra Royalties, BHP Group and Fortescue.

The target for Fortescue rises to $19.40 from $18.65. Underweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $25.70 Difference: minus $6.3 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.79, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has initiated a voluntary recall of its Airvo2 and myAirvo 2 devices with a manufacturing date before August 2017, impacting around 9,000 devices by the company's estimates.

The recall relates to a speaker configuration issue that may impact alarm sound levels, which, as Macquarie notes, does not impact the therapy delivered by the devices. The company has allowed a NZ$12m provision for the recall. 

The Neutral rating and target price of NZ$26.15 are retained.

Current Price is $23.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $22.10, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FPH as Hold (3) -

Despite the announcement of a voluntary recall for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's Airvo 2 and myAirvo 2 devices manufactured before August 2017, Ord Minnett has retained its rating and target price for the company.

The positive news, says the broker, is that these devices were sold before the covid boom, meaning the recall will impact only around 9,000 devices. By comparison, Philips' recall has involved 5.6m devices.

The Hold rating and target price of $22.00 are retained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $23.66 Difference: minus $1.66 (current price is over target).
If FPH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.10, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

The analysts believe valuations for the lithium pure-plays on the ASX remain elevated and are cautious around battery supply chain inventories and offline supply which can be restarted. Nonetheless, its thought a floor for lithium prices may be near.

Mineral Resources is the suggested way to play lithium followed by Pilbara Minerals and IGO.

As the current mine plan for IGO's Greenbushes mine continues to be reworked, the analysts see risk around future expansions.

The rating for IGO is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target falls to $5.95 from $7.20 Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

The broker's mineral sands forecasts are unchanged.

The Equal-weight rating and $7.20 target for Iluka Resources are unchanged. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

The broker's rare earths forecasts are unchanged.

The Underweight rating and $5.00 target for Lynas Rare Earths are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For iron ore, the broker lower its 2Q 2024 price forecast to US$110/t on stronger shipments but sees prices rising from the 2H of 2024 due to cost support and normalising inventories.

The analysts believe valuations for the lithium pure-plays on the ASX remain elevated and is cautious around battery supply chain inventories and offline supply which can be restarted. Nonetheless, its thought a floor for lithium prices may be near.

Rio Tinto is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure for iron ore, while Mineral Resources is the suggested way to play lithium.

The target for Mineral Resources rises to $67 from $62.50. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $70.87 Difference: minus $3.87 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $70.44, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For base metals, the broker prefers copper and nickel on supply tightness and likes (in order of preference) Evolution Mining, Nickel Industries, 29Metals and South32.

Morgan Stanley expects Nickel Industries will benefit from rebounding nickel prices and rapidly expanding production. The 95c target is unchanged. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.14
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

Tailwinds are in place to support gold prices, according to the broker, with Evolution Mining, Regis Resources and Northern Star Resources the preferred exposures.

Northern Star's target rises to $13.55 from $12.40. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.11, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

The analysts believe valuations for the lithium pure-plays on the ASX remain elevated and are cautious around battery supply chain inventories and offline supply which can be restarted. Nonetheless, its thought a floor for lithium prices may be near.

Mineral Resources is the suggested way to play lithium followed by Pilbara Minerals and IGO.

The $3.30 target and Underweight rating for Pilbara Minerals are unchanged.Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PTM as Hold (3) -

Platinum Asset Management has been left disappointed by an imminent $1.4bn redemption of mandated funds, but Ord Minnett warns there are likely more losses ahead. 

The loss translates to 9% of funds under management, and combined with other anticipated institutional account changes in the coming months is expected to result in the loss of $18m in annual fee revenue. 

Ord Minnett is estimating a funds under management decline to around $10bn by FY28 from $17bn in FY23.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.00 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates REA as Hold (3) -

Positive operating conditions for new residential Buy listings are ongoing, Bell Potter notes, underpinned by low unemployment, population growth via migration, and a stabilising outlook for interest rates relative to the prior 18 months.

Following the observed increase in listings, the broker lifts its FY24 listings growth forecast for REA Group to 5% from 4%, which is at the top end of REA's commentary for 3-5% growth, seeing the potential for previous commentary to be upgraded at the 3Q update next month.

Target rises to $191 from $174, but the stock is fairly valued, hence Hold retained.

Target price is $191.00 Current Price is $185.47 Difference: $5.53
If REA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $175.34, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

A lower than expected French private hospital tariff will likely pressure Ramsay Health Care's margins, says Macquarie. A hospital tariff increase of just 0.3% for the private sector has been announced, compared to 4.3% awarded to the public sector. 

The broker had previously anticipated a 2-3% tariff increase for Ramsay Health Care. With the announced tariff significantly lower than France's 3% rate of inflation, Macquarie anticipates an impact to margins.

The Neutral rating and target price of $56.50 are retained.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $56.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $59.13, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For iron ore, the broker lower its 2Q 2024 price forecast to US$110/t on stronger shipments but sees prices rising from the 2H of 2024 due to cost support and normalising inventories.

Rio Tinto is Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure followed by Deterra Royalties, BHP Group and Fortescue.

The target for Rio Tinto is increased to $140 from $138. Overweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $121.76 Difference: $18.24
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.83, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

Tailwinds are in place to support gold prices, according to the broker, with Evolution Mining, Regis Resources and Northern Star Resources the preferred exposures.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $2.45 from $2.40 and the Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.435
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For base metals, the broker prefers copper and nickel on supply tightness and likes (in order of preference) Evolution Mining (copper exposure), Nickel Industries, 29Metals and South32.

While South32 is currently cheap, according to Morgan Stanley, the company has a 31% FY24 (forecast) revenue exposure to the less preferred aluminium, and only 6% exposure to both nickel and copper.

The broker's Overweight rating is kept for South32 and the target falls to $3.35 from $3.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.35
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

The recently reported sale of a stake in Tea Tree Plaza, says Macquarie, points to an ongoing gradual shift up of cap rates into June.

A 50% stake was sold at a price of $308m, reflecting an -11.8% discount to disclosed book value reported in Scentre Group's property compendium. 

The broker notes, however, that as the asset manager, Scentre Group remains vulnerable to management and other fees that result in a higher book yield.

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.10 are retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

For base metals, the broker prefers copper and nickel on supply tightness and likes (in order of preference) Evolution Mining (copper exposure), Nickel Industries, 29Metals and South32.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained for Sandfire Resources and the target rises to $7.65 from $6.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVR as No Rating (-1) -

Morgans begins to monitor (no target or rating) Solvar, the specialist provider of automotive consumer finance in A&NZ, which remains leveraged to stabilisation and improvement in the interest rate cycle.

Solvar has remained profitable through the cycle since listing in 2006.

The broker highlights Solvar recently secured an upsized $450m Australian warehouse facility, providing greater opportunity to grow the loan book and flexibility to further re-finance its funding portfolio.

Secured automotive loans are provided to customers in the commercial and consumer; near-prime; and non-conforming market segments across three core brands: Money3; Automotive Financial Services Australia; and Go Car Finance in New Zealand.

Current Price is $1.07. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

The Equal-weight rating is retained for Syrah Resources and the target rises 45c from 39c. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting upside of 69.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following FY23 results and a later $98m placement and entitlement offer, Shaw and Partners updates forecast for Syrah Resources.

With no Balama production since April 2023, Syrah reported a FY23 total loss after tax of -$84m compared with a -$26.8m loss in the previous corresponding period.

The broker's Buy, High Risk is maintained and the target falls to $1.10 from $1.30 due to the equity dilution and a six-month delay in first revenue from the downstream Vidalia plant.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.605
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting upside of 69.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

The removal of tariffs on Australian wine imports into China creates a medium-term growth opportunity for Treasury Wine Estates, suggests Morgan Stanley. Tariffs will be reduced to nil effective last month on March 29.

Management at Treasury Wine Estates will finalise Penfolds Bins and Icons price increases, expected to be effective in early-FY25.

The broker makes no material increase to the FY24 earnings contribution from the tariff removal owing to a step-up of onshore
overhead costs.

Target price is steady at $13.75. Overweight. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $1.3
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.31, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

UBS assumes a higher earnings valuation multiple for Treasury Wine Estates due to a larger addressable market now that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced wine tariffs will be reduced to nil effective from March 29.

The broker's earnings forecasts also rise across FY24-FY27 on higher earnings margins related to Penfolds and Premium Brands in China, partly offset by another decline for margins in the Americas region due to the challenging industry backdrop.

The target rises to $15.25 from $14.00. Buy.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $2.8
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.31, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy has completed its acquisition of OTR Group, with the deal completing for $1,215m. The $65m price increase, explains Macquarie, reflects the company's ongoing business expansion.

The broker points out OTR Group's network has expanded by 21 petrol and convenience sites since the deal was first announced.

The additional cost was added to debt, leaving Viva Energy to finance the deal through $1,065m debt and $150m from equity issuance. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.70 are retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $1
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is constructive on refining margins for both Viva Energy and Ampol, though prefers Ampol based on petrol station positioning. The analysts are yet to see any obvious winning strategies from either company in electric vehicle charging.

The broker suggests Viva Energy could close the petrol station positioning gap via the On The Run rollout (acquisition completed March 28) and the Liberty Retail consolidation after 2024.

The broker's target for Viva Energy is $3.65. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Sell (5) -

UBS believes the market remains unconvinced of the ability of Westpac to deliver the Unite technology transformation project on-time and on-budget.

While the project can potentially provide a $1bn reduction in costs, the broker cautions its is a complex undertaking. For such a large project, it's thought shareholders should expect ongoing board and executive management accountability.

The Sell rating and $23 target remain.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $26.10 Difference: minus $3.1 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.20, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

A potential change of government in Senegal could exacerbate the dividend cliff looming ahead for Woodside Energy, says Macquarie. The most likely candidate, according to the broker, has committed to renegotiating oil and gas contracts if elected.

Woodside Energy currently enjoys a 30% government take in Senegal, a sizeable difference to the industry average 55%. The broker estimates an increased government take of even ten percentage points would see earnings per share decline -10% and -20% over 2025 and 2026.

The Sell rating is retained and the target price decreases to $24.00 from $26.00.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $30.50 Difference: minus $6.5 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.70, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter is cautious that Narrabri’s geological and equipment reliability issues could persist into Q3. However, strong performance at Whitehaven Coal’s open cut mines should provide production support.

Current FY24 guidance points to marginally weaker production levels in the second half.

The broker has marked to market for thermal coal prices and currency, leading to a target cut to $7.55 from $7.65, Hold retained.

Whitehaven will soon become the operator of large, Queensland met coal assets, Bell Potter notes, positively shifting the company’s commodity exposure and risk profile.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $0.45
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's commodities team updates forecasts and suggests investors focus on stocks with exposure to commodities that will benefit from lower interest rates and either supply discipline or supply disruptions.

The analysts see room for a bounce in iron ore prices and believe lithium share price valuations have potential to correct further.

The Overweight rating and $8.50 target are retained for Whitehaven Coal Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $1.4
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources