Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley acknowledges it misjudged the severity of the issues with the life business. AMP has now indicated the volatility in claims is structural and broad based.

The broker notes AMP has been grappling with issues in its underperforming life business for more than three years. Margins and best estimate assumptions are re-based for the second time this year.

Morgan Stanley believes benefits from the new operating model and growth options are now key to unlocking value,alongside further reinsurance deals.

Overweight rating retained. Target is lowered to $5.70 from $6.30. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $1.13
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Citi welcomes the news the bank is selling its Asian Retail & Wealth management assets in five countries to DBS Group, and for a decent price in the analysts' opinion. ANZ had been over-investing in its Asian businesses, say the analysts, and this leads to $265m of net write-downs, provisions and transaction costs.

Citi retains a positive view as management is making all the right moves and noises for the creation of longer term shareholder value. Buy.

Target price is $32.75 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $4.9
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Following the bank's announcement of the divestment of retail and wealth businesses in five Asian countries Credit Suisse downgrades estimates slightly in the outer years.

The broker believes the bank is building its execution credentials in relation to its business divestment program but much remains to be done. On the negative side the bank is having to deal with stranded indirect costs associated with the divested businesses.

Price target is $27.30. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

ANZ has sold its retail and wealth operations in five Asian countries - Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indonesia - and retains its intention to divest operations in the four remaining countries.

While completion is a drawn-out process the sale represents further progress and Deutsche Bank had not expected a divestment so soon.

The price also looks relatively attractive to the broker but the development is reflected in the recent re-rating so a Hold rating and $28.60 target are retained. Earnings per share forecasts are reduced by 1-3% for FY17-19.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $0.75
If ANZ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -

Another day, another pre-result announcement from ANZ, this time being the disposal of an underperforming business in Asia. While it means yet another write-down, the broker notes the earnings impact is not material and applauds the bank's focus on balance sheet optimisation and simplification.

The broker still expects improved returns over the medium term. Outperform and $28.50 target retained.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $0.65
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

The sale of five retail operations in Asia makes sense to Morgan Stanley. The broker estimates a net 4-5% one-off impact on profit from write-downs, exit costs and calculates the transaction adds 15-20 basis points to capital, lowering recurring earnings by around 1%.

Overweight retained. Sector view is In-Line. Price target is $28.50.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $0.65
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

The bank will sell its retail and wealth businesses in five Asian countries. In terms of impact on shareholder value, Morgans believes this transaction is broadly neutral.

The broker lowers FY16 cash earnings per share forecasts by 2.3% as a result of the additional charges previously announced. The sale of the businesses results in a decline of 0.7% and 2.7% to forecasts for FY17 and FY18 respectively.

The broker retains a Hold rating and $24.00 target.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: minus $3.85 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -

Pit wall instability and a delay in re-leaching historical areas of the heap leach pad disrupted September quarter production, UBS notes.

The company reports work to mitigate the instability has been completed and material movements are lifting back to normal.

UBS believes the recent sell off in the stock is overdone. Target is $5.30. The broker maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $2.6
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 71.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWE as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have been forced to rejig their numbers since AWE announced its volume-based legacy contract is probably going to last until late 2019, two years later than Citi had expected. This means higher priced contracts later into the future, which impacts on forecasts.

Citi analysts see multiple potential catalysts on the horizon, also involving Origin Energy ((ORG)) and Santos ((STO)) selling assets. Buy. Target 0.82 (was $0.84).

Target price is $0.82 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.275
If AWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWE as Underperform (5) -

September quarter results were buoyed by the start of production at Waitsia 1A and BassGas output but Credit Suisse finds it hard to get excited with oil around US$50/bbl and another cash consuming quarter, struggling to find  a near-term positive catalyst.

The broker retains an Underperform rating and 65c target.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.105
If AWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was ahead of Deutsche Bank's forecasts, driven by a higher-than-expected contribution from Casino/Henry.

The company reaffirmed the final investment decision on the Ande Ande Lumut oil project in Indonesia is targeted for the second half of 2017. Deutsche Bank still believes the economics are currently challenging.

Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and 65c target.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.105
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWE as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

AWE's Sep Q production was impacted by divestments but outside the loss of Cliff Head, production increased thanks to Tui, Macquarie notes. AWE continues to eye off east coast gas for ongoing growth.

The impact of not going ahead with Waitsia had Macquarie downgrading to Underperform post result on a lack of earnings growth and balance sheet concerns.

While the balance sheet is still troublesome and near-term earnings growth questionable, the broker believes there is sufficient cash flow from operations to justify an upgrade back to Neutral. Target unchanged at 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.055
If AWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BDR as Sell (5) -

September quarter production almost doubled on the prior quarter but remained below UBS forecasts.

With a lack of asset diversification and a predominately Brazilian real cost base, the broker believes a premium valuation is hard to justify. Sell rating retained.  Target is 35c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If BDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

Boral is selling its 40% stake in its joint venture on bricks with CSR ((CSR)). Credit Suisse believes this is a well-timed transaction as management is aware of the cycle and the losses incurred in the bricks business as recently as FY12-13, when housing last troughed.

The broker expects cash proceeds of $133.9m will improve an already under-geared balance sheet. Neutral rating retained. Target slips to $6.90 from $7.00.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.6
If BLD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -

CSR ((CSR)) will acquire Boral’s 40% stake in their bricks joint venture for $133.9m. Deutsche Bank believes the acquisition is 3% accretive for CSR and 2% dilutive for Boral in FY17.

The divestment is in line with Boral’s recent statement that its bricks business is non-core. The broker notes Boral continues to own a bricks business in WA which is expected to break even at best.

Buy retained. Target rises to $7.50 from $7.48.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $1.2
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -

Boral has sold its 40% of the brick JV with CSR to CSR. The broker suggests Boral has likely sacrificed some remaining synergies but has probably gotten out at the top of the cycle.

The disposal means further rationalisation of the company's building products business and provides greater balance sheet flexibility, the broker notes. The elongated housing cycle is making the transition to infrastructure easier to manage. Outperform and $7.10 target retained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.8
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was solid, Credit Suisse observes. Of particular note was the strong net cash position at the end of the quarter.

The broker takes the opportunity to run through its oil deck, the main focus of which is the US$65/bbl long run price. In isolation this would drag down Beach earnings and valuation but is offset by incrementally more production in later years on the back of recent exploration success.

Hence, Credit Suisse retains a 70c target and Outperform rating and upgrades earnings per share estimates for the next three years by 1-4%.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse trims FY17 profit estimates by 2.0% to reflect guidance for Stratton Finance first half revenue to be substantially below the prior corresponding half.

The broker considers the reaction in the share price to the AGM update is overdone. The earnings downgrade is judged to be relatively small and caused by an isolated issue in an adjacent joint venture. The broker believes this is not symptomatic of any broader problems in the core business, which is tracking well.

Outperform retained. Target is lowered to $12.25 from $12.50.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.59
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Initiate coverage with Add rating (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on the receivables management and financial services provider with an Add rating and $20 target.

Under the current management team, the company has delivered  growth of 21% in earnings per share over the past seven years, and operating cash flow growth of 16%.

While market share in the domestic PDL market has potentially peaked, Morgans observes the core division generates strong cash flow of around $40-45m, which will assist in funding the current growth strategies.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $2.28
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

CSR has acquired Boral's ((BLD)) 40% stake in the east coast brick joint venture. Strategically, Credit Suisse observes this is consistent with a commitment to the building products business and reduces the relative importance of the aluminium business.

The broker notes housing is approaching its peak of the cycle and Tomago electricity costs are about to step higher. In conjunction with the emerging competitive threat in plasterboard, the broker is cautious on the medium-term outlook.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target lowered to $3.60 from $3.85.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR will acquire Boral’s ((BLD)) 40% stake in their bricks joint venture for $133.9m. Deutsche Bank believes the acquisition is 3% accretive for CSR and 2% dilutive for Boral in FY17.

CSR's move to full ownership of the east coast bricks business is in line with its strategy, Deutsche Bank observes, to grow building products. The broker believes the FY17 earnings multiple is attractive, given a view that Australian housing activity will remain robust for the next 18-24 months.

The broker continues to rate CSR as a Buy. Target drops to $4.04 from $4.11.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.38
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSR as Underperform (5) -

CSR has bought out Boral's 40% of the brick JV. While the broker believes the top of the cycle is near, the price looks reasonable and provides for CSR to make cycle-based decisions on its own. The balance sheet has not been stretched.

That said, the broker still sees the housing cycle slowing in 2017 and maintains a negative view on aluminium. Thus despite an inexpensive valuation, the broker retains Underperform. target falls to $3.10 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FAR as Outperform (1) -

The company has concluded a busy September quarter and the next drilling program is scheduled for early 2017. The broker finds the stock's appeal lies in the potential for a world-class oil development in offshore Senegal.

Outperform rating retained with a 14c target.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.067
If FAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.15, suggesting upside of 113.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse downgrades the stock to Underperform from Neutral on the rally in the share price. Target is steady at $5.

Earnings estimates are unchanged at this stage. The broker envisages the risk to sales guidance for 165-170mt appears to be to the upside, unless the upcoming cyclone season proves less benign than last year.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

Earnings growth for GPT in 2017 is expected to be flat, which UBS compares with 4-6% for the past four years. The broker's focus is on the office portfolio, fund investments and developments, where the company is expected to outperform the sector.

Most of the development upside is expected within mixed use/residential rezoning) over retail re-developments.

Neutral retained. Target rises to $4.95 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.29
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon is moving towards completion of the due diligence on its proposed takeover of Petrobras' Brazilian offshore assets. The broker believes the takeover will prove transformational, but awaits detail on price and funding arrangements before ascribing a valuation.

Meanwhile Karoon is also buying out the remaining interest in the Echidna/Kangaroo JV following months of issues with the partner, and has won the right to explore a section of the Bight near where the BPs and Chevrons of the world are actively exploring. Outperform and $2.90 target retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.6
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MML as Neutral (3) -

Medusa's gold production continued to be impacted in the Sep Q by ongoing underground development, falling 27% below the broker's forecast. Lower production means higher costs, and Medusa is also suffering from delays in infrastructure construction.

Guidance has nevertheless been retained and the broker maintains Neutral and a 60c target, suggesting all hinges on completing the underground upgrade and lifting production. 

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MNS as Outperform (1) -

Two members of the Magnis board have resigned, meaning the company loses considerable experience, the broker suggests, particularly in negotiating offtake agreements.

The broker retains Outperform and a $1.70 target on the basis of the unique opportunity Nachu offers in the graphite space, but notes uncertainty over the direction and timeline of the project is now heightened.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $1.045
If MNS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi analysts note performance in the September quarter was weaker than the previous quarter, but the company should remain in a position to meet production guidance for the full year.

Post share price weakness, they have upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Also, the analysts explain, their positive view is based upon expectation of production growth to at least 600kozpa in FY18.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.74
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

Oceana's Sep Q numbers were roughly in line with expectation. Haile construction continues to run on schedule and budget and the broker reiterates its belief Didipio will sail through the Philippines' government environmental audit given Oceana's solid environmental track record.

Outperform retained. Target falls to $7.40 from $7.60 on movement in the CADUSD.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $3.42
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OGC as Sell (5) -

September quarter production was marginally below UBS forecasts. Construction at Haile remains on track, with remaining capex at the end of the quarter of just US$64m.

Until there is certainty on the operating outlook for Didipio, exposure to the stock is difficult to justify in the broker's view, given alternative domestic exposures.

UBS retains a Sell rating. Target is raised to $3.78 from $3.59.

Target price is $3.78 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi coverage of Origin Energy has been transferred to another analyst, but this has not impact on the underlying positive sentiment. Production performance in the September quarter surprised to the upside.

The new analyst notes Origin has hedged circa 36% of its oil price risk in FY18 with a floor price of US$45/bbl. More hedging is expected to further strengthen the balance sheet. Buy.

Target price is $6.53 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $1.18
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ORG as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was 12% above Deutsche Bank's forecasts. Higher production was offset by lower APLNG domestic gas prices of $2.13/GJ and lower-than-expected LNG prices of US$5.37/mmbtu.

Realised LNG pricing was up 2.6% in the quarter which surprised the broker, given 3-month lagged oil prices were around 33% higher in the quarter relative to the June quarter. The broker retains a Hold rating and $5.60 target.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.25
If ORG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Add (1) -

September quarter production was up 8%, with increased APLNG activity and the start of Halladale/Speculant helping to offset declining production out of the Cooper Basin and BassGas.

The balance sheet remains under pressure and Morgans envisages an opportunity for a substantial turnaround in cash flow from a ramping up of APLNG and stabilising of oil-linked LNG earnings.

Meanwhile, in the downside scenario for oil, the broker expects Origin to benefit from a diversified exposure to energy markets. Morgans retains an Add rating and reduces the target to $6.40 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $1.05
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

September quarter production was 8% ahead of the June quarter and 4% ahead of UBS estimates. APLNG's train 2 is now online and the broker anticipates a rapid increase in production and sales volumes over the coming quarters.

UBS believes the ramp up in APLNG plus higher oil prices will ease the pressure on the company's balance sheet and mean cash distributions from APLNG commence in September 2017.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $6.70 target.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $1.35
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas' 1H17 guidance was below Citi's expectations, but the analysts take the view 1H17 is likely to represent a low point for domestic and international yields. Target drops to $4.55 from $4.71. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.49
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates QAN as Buy (1) -

The company has indicated revenue was 3% lower in the September quarter and revenue per available seat kilometres down 5.5%. An improved domestic performance is expected in the second half.

Qantas is also rationalising its capacity growth outlook with first half domestic expected to be down 1%. Pre-tax profit guidance of $800-$850m for the first half is consistent with Deutsche Bank's forecasts. 

The broker reduces the target to $4.30 from $4.45 and retains a Buy rating given the upside to the current traded price.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.24
If QAN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Qantas' quarterly update showed traffic stats and revenue for both international and domestic were a little weaker than anticipated but first half guidance provides confidence in FY17 earnings, the broker suggests.

Capacity reductions and improved conditions will aid in revenue recovery and the broker continues to see the stock as offering compelling value. Outperform retained. Target falls to $4.20 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.14
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the weak first half guidance will push a re-rating of Qantas back another six months. While suspecting the guidance is conservative and the 12-month valuation looks compelling, another downgrade keeps earnings confidence low. The broker lowers earnings per share forecasts by 9% for FY17.

That said, the broker finds encouraging signs that the trough in domestic revenue has likely passed. International revenue is still unclear with revenue from available seat kilometres guided to decline at a similar rate in the second quarter.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and Attractive Industry view. Target is lowered to $4.05 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.99
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas reported a 3% decline in September quarter revenue despite a 2% rise in capacity, which UBS notes exposes a 5.5% drop in unit revenue. International continues to be the main driver of this decline.

Guidance for pre-tax profit of $800-850m in the first half represents around a 10% drop from the same period last year.

The broker continues to forecast around $1bn per annum in shareholder payments through a combination of a 15c full year dividend and ongoing buy-backs to maintain optimal gearing.

Target unchanged at $3.95. Buy retained.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.89
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto intends to sell its 46.6% stake in the Simandou project, Guinea, to Chinalco (currently owns 41.3%). Clearing the asset from the portfolio makes sense to Morgan Stanley, given the challenges bringing it into production and no value was applied to the asset.

The caveat to the deal is that payment only occurs if the mine goes into production, which the broker assumes will not be before 2025.

Overweight rating, $59.50 target and Attractive sector view retained.

Target price is $59.50 Current Price is $54.18 Difference: $5.32
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.79, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 has announced a cut to met coal production guidance due to issues at Illawarra. Remedial measures are underway.

The production issue is disappointing, the broker suggests, given current strength in met coal prices. The broker has trimmed earnings forecasts but believes Illawarra can play catch-up and reiterates that spot prices are currently well above the broker's forecast prices.

Outperform and $3.30 target retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.73
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEH as Outperform (1) -

Sino's Sep Q production was hampered by the weather but full year production targets remain intact, the broker notes. Pricing negotiations for the Dec Q continue.

Indications the company is reaching its targets should prove positive for the share price, the broker suggests. Outperform and 25c target retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.152
If SEH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank reduces earnings forecasts by 6% after the weaker-than-expected trading update but believes this is largely priced in following the detention of Crown ((CWN)) VIP employees in China.

Buy rating is retained. Target falls to $6.00 from $6.25.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $1.01
If SGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.27, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLR as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

Silver Lake reported September quarter production of 32,900 ozs with an AISC of $1,226/oz and ahead of UBS forecasts.

During the quarter, a significant amount of funds were directed to mine development and pre-production capex for new mines.

UBS downgrades to Sell from Buy following appreciation in the share price. Target is reduced to 58c from 59c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SLR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Outperform (1) -

For a long time coal took a backseat to Coles in term of Wesfarmers earnings drivers but now coal is making a significant contribution on the price surge as Coles' fortunes slip, the broker notes. The broker has materially lifted its coal price forecasts, albeit still to well under spot, leading to forecast earnings increases.

The broker has also reduced its assumed PE multiple for Coles, leading to a target price cut to $41.80 from $43.60. Outperform retained.

Target price is $41.80 Current Price is $41.01 Difference: $0.79
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.15, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

The highlight in the September quarter was the 0.7% comparable growth in food sales, which Morgans observes is the first positive comparable since the second quarter of 2015. Despite this, the broker believes margins are likely to remain under pressure.

Although there are signs of improvement, Morgans believes the competitive environment will become more difficult. Rating is downgraded to Reduce from Hold. Target is reduced to $21.00 from $24.79.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $23.65 Difference: minus $2.65 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.53, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Latest indications are that Woodside's share of Wheatstone capex will be circa 8% more than budgeted for. This is actually good news, explain Citi analysts, as the market had come to expect a larger capex over-run.

Citi continues to view Woodside as the lowest risk exposure to oil and gas in Australia, while also pointing at the dividend yield on offer. Target $33.48. Buy.

Target price is $33.48 Current Price is $28.37 Difference: $5.11
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.19, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Wheatstone LNG operator Chevron has guided to US$34bn in capex to completion, representing a 17% over-run. Woodside stated that the updated capex guidance is less than 8% above its own guidance for Wheatstone.

To Deutsche Bank this implies that Woodside’s capex guidance for 2016 and 2017 may need to be increased by up to US$325m to factor in the revised Wheatstone outlook from Chevron.

The broker retains the Hold rating and $27.40 target.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $28.37 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.19, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Chevron has formally increased the capex estimate for the 8.9 mtpa Wheatstone LNG project to US$34bn from US$29bn. 

On a pro rata basis, UBS calculates the Wheatstone capex increase is US$650m net to Woodside, but expects any increase announced by Woodside will be lower, at around US$200-300m.

If the company increases capex by US$300m it would negatively impact the broker's valuation by 40c per share. Buy retained. Target is $31.90.

Target price is $31.90 Current Price is $28.37 Difference: $3.53
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.19, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources