Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley takes a fresh look at Life360 and lowers its price target to $5.50 from $8.60 on a broad consumer subscription de-rating and lower forecast revenues.

Cash burn estimates are unchanged while annualised monthly revenue forecasts rise on a faster than previously expected shift to subscription sales, explains the analyst.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $2.01
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

While Credit Suisse has doubts as to the viability of AGL Energy's standalone entities on the other side of the company's proposed demerger, the broker notes high energy prices should at least cover shortfalls in the near-term.

Credit Suisse expects the current structure to be more resilient long-term, doubting AGL's ability to outgrow its excessive financial leverage, but despite this lifts net profit forecasts 9% and 32% for FY23 and FY24 respectively given strong power, gas and coal prices.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.30 from $8.20.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.19 Difference: $1.11
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes another announced delay to the ASX's CHESS blockchain replacement was expected by the market.

Nonetheless, should the ASX switch its approach, the broker sees potential for write-downs related to prior spending on the project. It's also estimated that technology and operating costs will now be higher for longer.

The Underweight rating and target price of $74.00 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $82.13 Difference: minus $8.13 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $81.54, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -

ASX's monthly activity report reveals a rebound in fixed-income derivatives, a strong cash market and softer capital raisings - few surprises there given the economic climate. The cash margin rose 8% year on year to $12.7bn.

Ord Minnett says the ASX's delay of its CHESS replacement project was not surprising, the natural upshot being a likely increase in capital expenditure. The broker notes the company has been criticised in the past for slow rollouts and could attract the scrutiny of regulators. In a worst-case scenario Ord Minnett estimates it would cost less than $200m to replace.

Hold rating retained. Target price eases to $84.41 from $85.

Target price is $84.41 Current Price is $82.13 Difference: $2.28
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $81.54, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

First impressions by Citi of CommBank's 3Q result today suggests a 9% beat for cash earnings versus the consensus expectation and a 6% beat versus the broker's forecast.

A modest provision write-back assisted the result, explains the analyst, with pre-provision profit around 3% ahead of Citi and consensus forecasts. Meanwhile, underlying expenses fell -1%, when cost growth was expected.

The broker retains a Sell rating and points out near-term net interest margin challenges persist from slowing mortgage volumes. The $90.75 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $90.75 Current Price is $101.51 Difference: minus $10.76 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $92.45, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reaffirms CSL's collections will reach FY19 levels in the 2H of FY22. This comes after the broker assessed FY21 results for Japanese-based peer Takeda.

A key takeaway for the analyst was that Takeda's plasma was back above pre-pandemic levels with strong IG growth expected.

The Overweight rating and $310 target are retained. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $276.22 Difference: $33.78
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $319.02, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes strong March-quarter results from CSL's competitors bode well for the company.

Meanwhile, US courts have upheld an appeal allowing plasma collection companies to challenge a ban on plasma donation from Mexican nationals entering the US on B1/B2 visas, which the broker estimates could increase collections by 800,000L a year, supporting US$300m in extra sales and translating to a 3% profit rise in FY24.

For now Accumulate rating and $295 target price are retained.

Target price is $295.00 Current Price is $276.22 Difference: $18.78
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $319.02, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR's FY22 headline result beat consensus by 3% and Citi by 2% thanks to lower corporate costs and higher property earnings, but the broker considers the broader mix to be on the soft side.

The highlight was the dividend (31.5c compared with consensus' 27c).

Citi notes building product sales rose just 5%, despite building starts growing 44%. But with completions only rising 6%, the broker expects this will translate into a strong pipeline for FY23. Margin expansion is also on the cards given a positive pricing environment and the company's manufacturing leverage.

Earnings forecasts rise 2% to 4% across FY23 and FY24.

Buy rating retained and target price reduced to $6.40 from $6.63.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.68
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

Despite industry supply chain disruptions and impacts from Gyprock plant issues, all of CSR's Building Products segments delivered earnings and volume growth over the year, with Credit Suisse noting 8% revenue growth in the second half supported record full year earnings.

Strong confidence in next year's pipeline saw the company issue an 18.5 cents per share dividend, reflecting a 28% increase.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.40 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.68
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Equal-weight (3) -

CSR's FY22 result was in-line with consensus expectations. Aluminium and Property earnings were broadly in-line with Morgan Stanley's  forecasts though the overall result was a 9% beat versus the broker's forecast.

The analyst sees a bright outlook for Building Products with a strong pipeline in detached, while apartment demand is improving.

A final dividend of 18cps was declared versus the13.5cps expected by Morgan Stanley. The Equal-weight rating is maintained as negativity on housing is expected to offset solid backlogs, while the target slips to $6.20 from $6.60. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.48
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Accumulate (2) -

CSR's FY22 full-year result nosed out Ord Minnett's forecasts and fell 1% shy of consensus. The full year dividend surprised to the upside at 31.5c vs the broker's estimate of 28.5c.

The company enjoyed strong leverage in Building Products and Ord Minnett expects supply chain initiatives and operating efficiencies will accelerate, supporting the 14% margin into FY23. The Housing Industry producer price index shows rises in key CSR building products categories not yet reflected in sales growth, says the broker.

CSR is Ord Minnett's preferred sector pick given its outer-year aluminium hedging, exposure to a lengthened cycle, and upgrades to its Western Sydney property portfolio.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price rises to $6.30 from $6.15.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.58
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR's FY22 full-year result appears to have met the broker, more thanks to margin than volume opines UBS.

The broker expects the company will continue to benefit from the gap between starts and completions out to September 23 and management spies a fledgling recovery in multi-family and non-residential construction, which the broker expects will soften volume declines rolling into FY24.

UBS says property is creating an earnings floor and rising property valuations were also a plus. 

FY23 earnings (EBIT) forecasts fall -10% due to a -$28m decline in UBS's aluminium earnings forecasts.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $6.40 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.68
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Outperform (1) -

Corporate Travel Management's recovery is ahead of the market, with Macquarie noting the company is expecting fourth quarter average monthly revenue to exceed pre-covid levels and build momentum heading into the next financial year.

Activity in Europe, North America and Australia/New Zealand were 86%, 70% and 71% of pre-covid levels respectively, compared to peer AMEX Global Business Travel's reported comparable activity levels of 51%, 56% and 57%.

Macquarie notes the company remains well placed for recovery in corporate travel, but the broker expects it will reach full recovery faster than those with larger corporate customer exposure given its customer mix.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $25.80 from $26.70.

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $21.32 Difference: $4.48
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DDR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $16 target price for Dicker Data after assessing 1Q results were in-line with the broker's forecasts.

The analyst feels the company has maintained or grown market share. Also, the Exceed Australia acquisition and the security and IT business, acquired from Hills, are now "almost fully" integrated. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $12.47 Difference: $3.53
If DDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Electronic gambling machine revenues in Queensland exceeded pre-covid levels by 33% in April, with Macquarie noting this represents improvement from March revenues 21% above pre-covid levels.

Year-to-date, revenue levels look to be14% ahead of pre-covid and the broker notes strong revenue trends should continue into the fourth quarter given pent up demand, while Endeavour Group should benefit from a pick up in on-premise consumption.

The Outperform rating and target price of $7.70 are retained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.74 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.28, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

With trade disruptions continuing to support above average grain margins and crop conditions looking favourable for the 2022/23 growing season, Credit Suisse has upgraded its earnings expectations for GrainCorp over the next two years.

The broker highlights given 14.7m tonnes of grain received in the first half and a summer crop of 2.6m tonnes, GrainCorp looks likely to at least meet its FY21 received grain record of 16.5m tonnes. The broker does expect depreciation to impact on earnings in FY24.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.91 from $7.54.

Target price is $8.91 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

First half profit from GrainCorp of $246m was a beat to Macquarie's expected $229m, reflecting the ongoing demand for Australian grain and oilseeds and current strong supply chain margins for grain exports.

The company reiterated full year guidance for $590-670m in earnings and $310-370m in net profit, although the broker notes a recent history of guidance upgrades. Macquarie expects earnings momentum will continue into the next financial year, with favourable planting conditions likely to support another above average winter crop.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.10 from $10.28.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $0.64
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GNC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses a stronger than expected 1H for GrainCorp and notes FY23 crop conditions have improved further. As a result, it's estimated FY22 guidance has been de-risked and the analyst feels FY23 should exceed consensus expectations.

First half underlying earnings (EBITDA) were a 5% beat versus the broker's estimate and the consensus forecast.

Management maintained FY22 guidance. A 12cps ordinary dividend and a 12cps special dividend were declared versus a combined dividend consensus estimate of 20cps. The Overweight rating and $10.70 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $0.24
If GNC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

GrainCorp's interim result was largely in-line with Morgans expectations. Management has reiterated guidance.

The broker upgrades its grain Marketing and Processing earnings in the belief it will take time for global grain stocks to rebuild. It is thought stocks could even worsen, given the Ukraine war.

As a result, the analyst raises its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) and profit estimates by 14.8% and 18.2%, and the target price increases to $10.40 from $9.36. Hold.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

Graincorp's FY22 full-year result outpaced UBS forecasts, due to a 23% beat in the Processing segment.

The beat was hardly a surprise given successive guidance upgrades due to favourable La Nina and global-pricing dynamics.

UBS believes FY22 to FY23 represents the peak super-cycle earnings for Graincorp before normalisation in FY24.

The broker spies room for further upgrades should another bumper crop emerge, and its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast sits above guidance (albeit below FY22 actuals).

Meanwhile, the company is planning to return capital to shareholders (dividend payout ratio is set at 50% to 70%) and UBS expects further special dividends to come.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises 13% to $10.05 from $8.90.

Target price is $10.05 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

GPT Group's first quarter update saw the company reiterate full year guidance of 31.7-32.4 cents per share funds from operations and 25.0 cents per share dividends. Macquarie notes the stock remains its key pick in REITs.

The broker notes while portfolio retail sales were a positive the company's Melbourne Central asset, accounting for 26.5% of the portfolio, continues to drag. Excluding the asset, retail sales were up 11.9%, and Macquarie expects continued foot traffic recovery will further benefit.

The Outperform rating and target price of $5.47 are retained.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.69
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating and $5.51 target price for GPT Group following a 1Q update. Industry view is In-Line.

Management maintained guidance for funds from operations (FFO) of 31.7-32.4cps and a 25 cent dividend.

The analyst describes retail rent collections as solid, with 88% collected in the first quarter and 110% collected in April.

Target price is $5.51 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.73
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Integral Diagnostics has purchased Exact Radiology for $42.5m and Citi upgrades FY23-FY24 EPS forecasts 3%-4% accordingly, to account for accretion.

The broker notes the acquisition fits the company's strategy, and compliments IDX's footprint in SE Queensland with a further 11 clinics, six radiologist and one partial MRI licence.

No trading update was provided but the broker expects omicron will have taken a toll in line with other healthcare providers, but the recovery thesis remains intact.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $4.70 from $4.85.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.94
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IDX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees scale benefits from Integral Diagnostics' acquisition of Exact Radiology in QLD for -$37.5m and an earn-out of up to $1.875m to be competed in FY22.

The analyst estimates the transaction will be around 4% EPS in FY23. Before the broker raises its rating (currently Equal-weight), a volume recovery in the existing business is required. The $4.36 target price is unchanged. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $4.36 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.6
If IDX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Judo Capital Holdings' strategy day reveals the company is tracking ahead of prospectus.

Citi notes that Judo has deliberately been running an unhedged balance sheet mismatch and expects this will yield a strong, if short-lived, bump to net interest margins to 3.6% in the 2023 June half, up from 1.90% at the end of the December 2021 first half.

Higher costs (more than 10% above prospectus forecasts) are likely to dampen an improved revenue outlook, says Citi.

The broker adjusts the risk free rate, which increases the costs of equity, to which Judo has a greater than average sensitivity given its long-dated cash flows.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $1.90 from $2.40.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.27
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JDO as Outperform (1) -

While Judo Capital has demonstrated momentum from prospectus at its inaugural investor day, Credit Suisse notes the company's share price has underperformed recently and attributes this partly to a lack of detail around the company's interest rate exposure.

Judo Capital maintained it rising interest rates will offer a material tailwind, highlighting that with 91% of lending linked to the bank bill swap rate it anticipates immediate benefits to cash rate increases.

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.75 are retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $1.12
If JDO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Judo Capital has held its inaugural strategy day, with Macquarie noting a number of positives look to improve investor prospects.

Macquarie considers the company positioned to deliver ahead of system loan growth over the next three years, and notes Judo Capital appears to be pre-funding this growth with accelerated banker hiring, 12% ahead of expectations.

Given reduced execution risk, the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target price increases to $2.15 from $2.10. Macquarie notes de-rating has shifted risk-reward payoff in favour of investors.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.52
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Kelsian Group benefits from defensive, longer-term, government-backed contracts, with contract indexation providing a buffer for the company against the impacts of inflation, rising labour costs and elevated fuel prices.

The broker notes its current valuation of the stock does not account for potential additional contract wins or merger and acquisition activity, while tourism recovery and contract performance present risk.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.70 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.85
If KLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Nick Scali should benefit from the unwind of an all time high order bank, as Macquarie notes the company looks likely to report elevated revenue in the coming financial year as it addresses the backlog which in late April equated to 37% of forecasted sales in FY23.

While delivery times have increased to more than 100 days from around 70, Macquarie expects this to normalise in FY24. Further, the Plush acquisition is expected to contribute long term, with new stock in FY23 expected to push gross margins back above 60%.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.70 from $15.50.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $3.31
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

While oOh!media has reported 15% trading growth over the previous comparable period in the first quarter, Macquarie notes this reflects a 93% increase on the same period in FY19 despite the loss of the Sydney Trains contract.

The company's second quarter also had a strong start, with the entire portfolio up 18% in April. The strong trading update sees Macquarie increase its earnings per share forecasts 113%, 37% and 35% through to FY24, while earnings forecasts for the same years increase 52%, 17% and 16%.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.30 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.78
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

In a first glance at 1H results for Orica, Citi estimates a 15% beat versus the consensus expectation for underlying earnings, while underlying profit was a 20% beat compared to consensus.

Management expects the strong performance to continue into the 2H with steady commodity growth, particularly in gold, as well as copper, quarry and construction.

Despite the current macroeconomic worries, the broker expects the market to look upon the results favourably. The Neutral rating and $15 target price are maintained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.67 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

In a first take on today's 1H results from Orica, Macquarie assesses a strong outcome with a positive mix/margin and higher volumes more than offsetting increased costs.

Adjusted profit was $129m compared to the broker's $110m estimate, while the interim 13cps dividend was in-line. On a divisional basis, Australasia was a key part of an earnings beat versus the broker's forecast.

Management expects 2H demand will be driven by steady commodity growth, particularly in gold, copper and quarry and construction. The Neutral rating and $14.92 target price are maintained.

Target price is $14.92 Current Price is $15.67 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

Electronic gambling machine revenues in Queensland exceeded pre-covid levels 33% in April, with Macquarie noting this represents improvement from March revenues 21% above pre-covid levels.

Year-to-date, revenue levels look to be 14% ahead of pre-covid and the broker notes strong revenue trends should continue into the fourth quarter given pent up demand, with Star Entertainment trends suggesting an earnings snapback in the coming quarter.

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.10 are retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.11
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 40.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

An AGM update by Smartgroup Corp revealed revenue and earnings (EBITDA) for April year-to-date were in-line with management's expectations and the previous corresponding period.

First half profit (NPATA) is tracking close to $36m, which includes a $2m backlog, explains the analyst. The Equal-weight rating and $8.10 target are maintained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $8.43 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the quality of Suncorp Group's business has risen substantially and will further close on peers over the next year, particularly in insurance, and that Suncorp's discount to peers is no longer justified.

The broker points to superior claims management amid an industry-wide spike in general insurance motor and homes claims after lockdowns ended, not to mention the floods.

Hence UBS forecasts strong margin gains in FY23.

Meanwhile, the bank is witnessing accelerating loan growth, the mortgage book outpacing system in recent month. Deposits have lagged but the skew remains to low-cost funding, notes UBS, suggesting net interest margins have bottomed. Then there is the rising interest rate environment and Suncorp's low impairments to consider.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $14.40 from $14.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $11.48 Difference: $2.92
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.96, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

After taking an initial look at FY22 results for Xero, Macquarie notes a stronger than forecast contribution from North America resulted in a slight revenue beat versus the broker's expectation.

While A&NZ monthly recurring revenue (MRR) churn declined marginally, overall group churn increased to 0.90% from 0.88%, notes the analyst. The earnings (EBITDA) margin was within management guidance.

The broker awaits more information from a conference call and in the meantime retains its Neutral rating and $100 target price.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $86.97 Difference: $13.03
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.77, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources