Australian Broker Call
October 25, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 10:34 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| JHX - | JAMES HARDIE | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| SGP - | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -
At current share prices Morgans considers the stock fully valued and believes other major bank stocks are undervalued to varying degrees.
The broker conceptually agrees with the strategy of re-balancing the capital portfolio but believes consensus forecasts are building in too much optimism. ANZ reports its FY17 result on October 26.
Hold and a $30 target retained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $30.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.75, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.6, implying annual growth of 13.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 227.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.3, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CAT as Add (1) -
First quarter cash receipts of $27.8m were slightly better than Morgans expected. The broker also notes revenue trends reflect further strong growth in subscriber numbers.
Morgans observes the company is a world leader in elite athletics devices and analytics and continues to invest aggressively in growing its global user base.
Add retained. Target is $2.97.
Target price is $2.97 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $1.27
If CAT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Buy (1) -
The company reported a realised refiner margin of US$14.10/bbl. This was above Deutsche Bank's forecasts.
The broker revises 2017/18 Brent oil price assumptions to reflect are marginally improve macro environment. Earnings per share estimates increase 0.7% for 2017.
Buy retained. Target is reduced to $36.15 from $37.80.
Target price is $36.15 Current Price is $33.78 Difference: $2.37
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 124.00 cents and EPS of 250.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.8, implying annual growth of -1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -
The company has purchased the minority 25% stake in its Japanese business from Bain for $42m. Morgan Stanley calculates the deal should be 4% and 2% accretive to FY18 and FY19 earnings respectively.
The broker continues to believe FY18 guidance is conservative and will be lifted during the year.
Overweight rating, $53 price target and Cautious industry view.
Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $49.26 Difference: $3.74
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.56, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.2, implying annual growth of 40.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 206.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 200.2, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Hold (3) -
September quarter update has reaffirmed FY18 guidance for distribution growth of 4.0-4.5%.
Strong demand for office space in Sydney and Melbourne has continued, with leasing activity across the office portfolio up 7%. Occupancy levels increased to 97.5% in September.
Hold rating retained on valuation and $9.00 target.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -
Despite a solid operating performance Ord Minnett expects the market to focus on the realised price discount when the company reports its first quarter production.
The broker lowers earnings estimates on higher discounts, Australian dollar and shipping cost estimates. Target falls to $6.50 from $7.00. Accumulate retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $1.51
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.68, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 43.25 cents and EPS of 64.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.56 cents and EPS of 68.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of -7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GEM as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett continues to find the outlook positive as industry supply is moderating and occupancy gradually increasing. A new industry funding package from July 2018 should improve childcare affordability, as well.
The broker has also been encouraged by the company's internal initiatives. The stock may no longer be obviously cheap but the current valuation does not appear overly stretched to the broker.
Buy rating retained. Target is raised $5.10 from $4.50.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.505
If GEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GOR as Outperform (1) -
Quarterly activities highlight drilling and the Gruyere development. Macquarie observes Gruyere is on track for first gold in the first quarter of FY19.
The broker also notes the company has recently acquired positions in the south-west region of WA, representing a potential new discovery.
Outperform and $1.00 target retained.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.31
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.55 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates JHX as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi expects the Texas re-build to be protracted, limiting the pressure on the James Hardie network capacity that has been re-configured to meet market demand and recapture some market share leakage. Hence, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $20.10 from $16.00.
Citi expects pricing growth will exceed inflation and the more profitable renovation segment act as a tailwind. Network configuration could provide margin benefits on lower unit manufacturing costs and freight.
The broker is increasingly confident that the issues of capacity are behind the company and the management has market share firmly in hand.
Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $1.2
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.80 cents and EPS of 81.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.04 cents and EPS of 90.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 19.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MDL as Add (1) -
Grand Cote operations improved in the September quarter with throughput up 9% as the operator seeks to maximise recovery from a higher-grade zone.
With the continued strong performance of Grand Cote and the successful ramp up of the Tyssedal furnace Morgans reduces its discount to the valuation to 20% from 40%. Target rises to $0.94 from $0.88. Add rating retained.
Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.14
If MDL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MGR as Hold (3) -
Mirvac has reaffirmed FY18 guidance for growth in operating earnings per share of 6-8% and 6% growth in distributions.
Retail impressed Deutsche Bank, as comparable specialty growth continues to strengthen. There were signs of a slowing residential market, with 300 settlements achieved in the quarter, down from the 667 recorded in the prior corresponding quarter.
Hold rating retained. Target is $2.31.
Target price is $2.31 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -51.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -
The company has reaffirmed FY18 guidance for earnings per share of 15.3-15.6c. Macquarie remains confident in the earnings outlook into FY18, with the update broadly consistent with expectations.
The broker retains an Outperform rating and $2.43 target.
Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.1
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -51.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MGR as Hold (3) -
Retail sales stood out for Ord Minnett in the first quarter FY18 update, with specialty moving average total growth of 6.0% and up 40 basis points on June. ?The broker notes this was underpinned by exceptional food catering growth.
Meanwhile, the broker believes the company offers a good leverage to strong office markets and development should deliver consistent profits. Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.35.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.07
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -51.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MGR as Buy (1) -
Guidance remains intact in the wake of September quarter retail sales. UBS remains wary of extrapolating too much with the company's concentrated portfolio.
Residential commentary was consistent with recent house price growth trends. The broker remains comfortable the company will hit the top end of its 6-8% guidance for earnings per share growth.
Buy rating retained and price target steady at $2.52.
Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.19
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -51.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NUF as Neutral (3) -
The company has acquired the Century portfolio of European crop protection assets. Credit Suisse notes the total transaction cost is $719m and funding involves a fairly heavy equity issuance, which appears partly to provide funding for a second acquisition that could move a dilutive acquisition to neutral if brought to fruition.
Nevertheless, the Century transaction appears to tick most of the boxes strategically and research and development costs are expected to be low.
Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.24 from $9.49.
Target price is $9.24 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $0.51
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 57.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of 15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Sell (5) -
Deutsche Bank considers the acquisition of a portfolio of crop protection products to be a minor negative for the company.
While a good strategic fit for the company's existing European business, the price to be paid is above expectations and the broker believes margin assumptions are too optimistic.
Moreover, the acquisition is only accretive if if calculations add back the amortisation and the broker points out major shareholder, Sumitomo, is not participating in the entitlement offer.
Sell rating retained. Target is $6.75.
Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of 15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
Nufarm has announced the acquisition of a European portfolio of crop protection assets for US$490m. The company has also highlighted a potential bolt-on acquisition that has attractive margins and could generate additional accretion.
Macquarie considers this a positive step as a company builds on internally-generated growth. Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $10.44 from $9.60.
Target price is $10.44 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $1.71
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of 15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 70.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -
The company has acquired a portfolio of European assets for $627m ex working capital, funded by a $446m entitlement offer at $7.50 a share as well as existing debt.
Morgan Stanley observes the transaction is consistent with a strategy to expand in Europe and awaits further clarity before judging the accretive aspects of the deal.
Overweight rating, $10.40 target and Cautious industry view.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $1.67
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of 15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SGP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Credit Suisse calculates a build up of deferred profit with underlying residential price growth not taken to account by the company on lots sold over the past three years.
Moreover, strong price growth in Melbourne land markets over FY17 means the Victorian portfolio is now deeply in the money.
On conservative forecasts the broker envisages margins averaging 18% to FY20. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.71 from $4.56.
Target price is $4.71 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.37
If SGP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of -30.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SRX as Overweight (1) -
The first quarter trading update suggests global dose sales were flat. Morgan Stanley observes the challenges to the business appear to have continued into FY18.
Unaudited pre-tax profit in the quarter was up 11.3% which, on a full year basis, suggests downside to the broker's estimates.
Overweight rating, In-Line industry view retained. Target is $18.00.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: $3.5
If SRX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.78, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.30 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.3, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SXL as Hold (3) -
The AGM indicated metro radio revenue was down -6% for the September quarter while regional radio performed better, with revenue up 2%.
Conditions are expected to improve into the second quarter and, given the improving trends, Deutsche Bank's forecasts are unchanged.
Hold and $1.25 target retained.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.05
If SXL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SXL as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie found the trading update mixed, with positive momentum in the regional assets partly offset by the difficulties for metro radio.
The company has witnessed an improvement in advertising market conditions in September which has continued into October.
Nevertheless, Macquarie finds the valuation unattractive. Neutral retained. Target dips to $1.35 from $1.40.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.15
If SXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SXL as Underweight (5) -
The trading update suggests to Morgan Stanley a softer start to the fiscal year. Total revenue in the quarter was down -7% on a reported basis.
Underweight maintained. Target is $1.10. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TOX as Buy (1) -
UBS observes that, within the company's lower-quality earnings stream, there is a dependence on weather events which demonstrates the significance of the Daniels acquisition.
The dry weather, with September being the driest on record in greater Sydney, is likely to affect the Worth business, while higher-quality earnings streams are considered materially undervalued.
The broker believes softer earnings for FY18 are more than factored in and the valuation is not demanding.
Buy retained. Target is reduced to $2.85 from $2.95.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.28
If TOX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 88.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates VOC as Hold (3) -
The company has reaffirmed FY18 guidance and revealed progress in the enterprise & wholesale division. However, consumer operating metrics remain below the run rate of Deutsche Bank's forecasts.
The decision to divest the NZ business in Australian data centres could provide around $430m and reduce leverage, the broker acknowledges.
Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating, given the minimal total shareholder return implied by forecasts, and raises the target to $2.62 from $2.58.
Target price is $2.62 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If VOC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates VOC as Accumulate (2) -
The first quarter trading update revealed some positive news, of which Ord Minnett notes the most important is the anticipated transformation savings and customer contract updates on the Australia-Singapore cable project.
The potential sale of the NZ operation is also welcome news as it is expected to alleviate balance sheet pressure. The broker does not give the company full credit for the intended cost savings or the contract updates, so envisages a further 50% of potential upside to valuation if management can deliver.
Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $3.30 from $3.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.61
If VOC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates VOC as Neutral (3) -
UBS highlights the Janchor stake in the company, which recently lifted to 6.4%, with an additional interest in cash-settled equity derivatives equivalent to 8.66%. The long-term intentions are unknown.
The broker highlights the stake because Janchor was recently involved in the turnaround of Bellamy's ((BAL)).
Neutral retained. Target is $2.80.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.11
If VOC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WPP as Outperform (1) -
Near-term trading conditions are challenging but Macquarie finds merit in the company's strategy for the medium to longer term. Upside exist to cost synergy targets and. as integration progresses. there should be cross selling opportunities.
Guidance has been revised lower, with profit now expected to decline by -5-7% in 2017. The revised guidance excludes potential impacts of non-cash impairment charges that may be required on goodwill resulting from the merger.
Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.43.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.32
If WPP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 31.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $30.49 |
| CAT - | CATAPULT GROUP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.70 |
| CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $33.78 |
| DMP - | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $49.26 |
| DXS - | DEXUS PROPERTY | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.52 |
| FMG - | FORTESCUE | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.99 |
| GEM - | G8 EDUCATION | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.60 |
| GOR - | GOLD ROAD RESOURCES | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.69 |
| JHX - | JAMES HARDIE | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $18.90 |
| MDL - | MINERAL DEPOSITS | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.80 |
| MGR - | MIRVAC | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.33 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.33 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.33 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.33 | ||
| NUF - | NUFARM | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.73 |
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.73 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.73 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.73 | ||
| SGP - | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.34 |
| SRX - | SIRTEX MEDICAL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $14.50 |
| SXL - | SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.20 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.20 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.20 | ||
| TOX - | TOX FREE SOLUTIONS | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.57 |
| VOC - | VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.69 |
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.69 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.69 | ||
| WPP - | WPP AUNZ | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.93 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 14 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 10 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Wednesday 25 October 2017
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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