Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A4N as Outperform (1) -

After an expected net profit after tax loss in FY25 of -$32.6m for Alpha HPA, Macquarie continues to point to letters of intent coverage and progress of Stage 2 construction.

The coverage has risen to over 60% of nameplate capacity with the letters of intent, and 100% nameplate is expected by the analyst at the end of 2025. Increasing demand is seen coming from the semiconductor sector.

The Sapphire rollout results in Macquarie lowering its EPS forecasts by -7% in FY26 and -32% in FY27 on slower Stage 2 commissioning. Target slips to $1.41 from $1.42.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.445
If A4N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADH as Buy (1) -

Adairs' result was in line with guidance provided in June. The Adairs brand and Mocka performed well, Morgans suggests, offset by ongoing weakness in Focus on Furniture.

FY26 has started well with group sales up 22.6% in the first eight weeks, this has however been driven by aggressive promotions and clearance activity in Adairs, Morgans notes, with sales expected to moderate for the balance of the half.

Focus on Furniture reported positive sales growth in the first eight weeks, up 6.7%. Adairs is leveraged to a recovery in consumer sentiment, and Morgans thinks the valuation is compelling. Target rises to $2.90 from $2.60, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.17
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

Aeris Resources reported FY25 EBITDA and net profit after tax miss of -11% and -45% versus consensus, respectively, but EBITDA came in above Macquarie's forecast by 4%. The bottom line was impacted by higher D&A as well as tax expenses.

FY26 guidance was offered at the 4Q25 trading update, so much of the news was in the rear-view mirror. The miner is expected to return to profitability in FY26 and continues to trade at a discount to its peers.

Macquarie lifts its FY26 EPS estimate by 6% on gold hedges. Outperform rating maintained with a 28c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.05
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources  delivered a softer FY25 result than Ord Minnett expected, on lower revenue and higher D&A. This shouldn’t detract too much from the increased earnings figure, the broker suggests, with improved delivery and higher gold prices at Cracow.

Ord Minnett expects cash flows will remain subdued in first half FY26 with development of the Murrawombie pit, in advance of improving cash generation in the second half.

Target rises to 29c from 28c, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.06
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Atlas Arteria's interim results met consensus expectations. Traffic growth trends from 1Q2025 with Dulles and APPR continued, while higher tolls impacted Chicago Skyway.

As highlighted, management is talking about pursuing new OECD opportunities and leveraging strategic partnerships to boost returns without raising equity.

Target price slips to $5.70 from $5.80. Buy rating with a circa 7.5% yield with 2% p.a. growth and upside to the dividend from Dulles.

The analyst also views the toll road operator as a potential takeover target over the medium term. IFM is considered a strong "strategic" shareholder with around a 32.5% stake.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.37
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Atlas Arteria's 1H25 earnings (EBITDA) came in slightly below Macquarie's forecast at $705m, with cash flow missing at $280m due to a soft dividend from Skyway.

Political uncertainty continues in France and how that influences the concession renewals for APRR. Positively, traffic in Jul/Aug rose 1% on the prior period. Greenway could see a net price rise with the possibility of a 25% increase on stronger traffic growth. Skyway is moving to refinancing, although no dividend impact is flagged.

Macquarie lowers its EPS forecasts by -7% for 2025 and raises 2026 by 4% due to a weaker AUD, adding some 8% in EUR income. Management is continuing to discuss OECD growth options.

Outperform maintained. Target slips to $5.64 from $5.78.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.31
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Australian mortgage growth rose at an annualised 6% pace in July, consistent with the average since the start of 2025. The broker expects robust growth to continue, supported by lower rates, stronger consumer confidence, and fiscal stimulus.

The analysts believe a stronger operating environment, low earnings risk, and healthy balance sheets will sustain trading multiples for the banks above post-covid averages.

National Australia Bank is the broker’s preferred major bank with an Overweight rating, while Westpac becomes least preferred behind CommBank, both rated Underweight.

ANZ Bank's target price is $29.30. Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $33.67 Difference: minus $4.37 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.27, suggesting downside of -16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Following further analysis of Eagers Automotive's interim results, Morgan Stanley sees valuation as the key debate, with the stock trading well above historical levels.

The broker argues the company now has a stronger structural growth outlook and more optionality than two years ago.

Morgan Stanley's 2025-27 profit before tax (PBT) forecasts are raised by between by 10-17% following a solid first-half beat and strong execution. The target is raised to $28 from $20. Industry view: In-Line.

A summary of the broker's initial review follows.

The broker raises CY25-27 profit before tax (PBT) forecasts by 10-17% following a solid first-half beat and strong execution. For CY25, the broker forecasts PBT of $427m, implying $229m in the second half, supported by $19m in incentives, $5m in interest savings, and $7m from cycle and operational drivers.

Morgan Stanley sees notable upside to Eagers Automotive's 2025 earnings versus consensus based on the robust interim result with earnings of $197.7m versus around $185m at the implied AGM guidance.

The company continued to experience operational improvements over the period, with further improvements in 2H2025 and into 2026 expected. The cyclical tailwinds are anticipated to be maintained and were evident in the latter part of 2H.

A robust balance sheet improved with net debt down to $474m versus $813m at 2024.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.65 Difference: $0.35
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.95, suggesting downside of -18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Neutral (3) -

Citi came away from Austal's analyst call reasonably upbeat although no FY26 earnings guidance was offered and FIRB is slated to announce its decision on whether Hanwa can increase its stake to 19.9%.

FY25 results were "directionally" in line with the August 5 guidance of "not less than $100m" but notably higher than the $99m consensus. Earnings (EBIT) came in at $113.4m.

Citi argues the underlying result looked materially better as MMF3 only contributed $6.2m.

Possible risks included both Mobile and Henderson needing to recruit 1,000 employees each, with Austal looking at school graduates versus "lateral" hiring to manage wage growth.

Management is not flagging it can double earnings (EBIT) again, but commentary suggests there is low risk earnings will fall either.

Regarding US shipbuilding, the company is positive on revenue and profit growth, and contracts (T-ATS & AFDM) are near finalisation, which should boost margins.

Citi expects more FY26 guidance at the AGM and views consensus earnings (EBIT) of $119.7m as conservative.

Neutral, High Risk rated. No change to $7 target price.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Bapcor reported an FY25 earnings miss, with net profit after tax below consensus by -39%, and it fell short of guidance provided on July 24. The final dividend per share of 5.5c was slightly above consensus of 5.2c.

Post earnings call, the analyst stresses "patience" will be needed for the company's turnaround. Management's FY26 outlook implied no profit growth, which suggests downgrades to consensus earnings might be on the cards, with forecasts currently sitting 9% higher.

Growth was flagged to be 2H26 skewed, based on topline growth rather than cost-outs, and Citi believes there is a higher risk to achieving these targets.

Neutral rated. Target $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Bapcor’s FY25 result was pre-reported. A strategic reset is underway to restore sustainable growth, observes Macquarie.

The broker highlights six strategic initiatives aimed at improving operations. No FY26 guidance was provided, with profit expected to be weighted to the second half.

Trade revenue rose 1.3% year-on-year to $785m, with earnings (EBITDA) up 5% and margins 66bps higher at 16.9%, while Retail revenue fell -3.5% and earnings dropped -16% with margins down -166bps.

The broker's EPS forecasts fall by -5%, -9% and -8% for FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively, mainly from higher assumed overheads, while revenue forecasts remain broadly unchanged.

Macquarie raises its target price to $3.85 from $3.80 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

Bapcor’s FY25 pro forma profit of $80.4m came in just below the $81-82m guided range, with limited outlook detail aside from a second-half skew, observes Morgan Stanley.

Sales fell -1.4% year-on-year to $1,944m, with trade up 1.3% and other divisions down, while gross margin slipped by -3bps to 46.5%.

The broker notes margin gains in Trade and Specialist Wholesale Services but declines in retail and New Zealand.

Cost reductions of -0.6% were offset by operating deleverage and higher depreciation and amortisation, explain the analysts, driving earnings (EBITDA) down -4.1% and pro forma profit -8.4%.

Free cash flow of $10m was generated on 81% conversion, explains the broker, though net debt rose $26m.

A 5.5c dividend was declared.

Morgan Stanley cuts its FY26 and FY27 profit forecasts by -12% to -13%, respectively, with the October AGM expected to provide the next update.

The broker is currently under research restriction. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $3.98. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Bapcor remains in the early stages of its current strategic reset, Ord Minnett notes, which has adversely impacted sales momentum, as evidenced in its second half results. Further cost savings will be vital to offset the operational deleverage from lower sales and cost inflation.

In terms of outlook, no guidance was provided, however, the company expects FY26 profit to be weighted towards the second half with the strategic reset underway. A key upside risk to Ord Minnett's view is the potential for corporate activity given prior interest in the company.

Target rises to $4.15 from $4.00, Hold retained.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.17
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

betr Entertainment's FY25 result was slightly ahead of recent guidance, Ord Minnett notes. Meanwhile, betr has increased its offer for PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)) by a further 4%.

Ord Minnett  remains attracted to betr’s disciplined organic growth strategy, combined with its execution for the businesses it has acquired to date.

With a fragmented market of players in the Australian wagering space, the broker views betr as the natural consolidator.

Ord Minnett maintains its view that a PointsBet takeover presents a material opportunity for betr to become the sole online wagering company on the ASX. Buy and 46c target retained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.16
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy's FY25 net profit exceeded Bell Potter's forecasts, but this was largely due to non-cash items, specifically tax expenses and a write-down of uranium inventory.

EBITDA of $16.9m compared with the broker's -$3m forecast as the cost of goods sold benefited from sales from inventory, rather than uranium production. The broker estimates the benefit will continue in 1H26 from 0.4Mlbs of original strategic inventory.

Cash flow was the standout, but on the negative side is uncertainty on production beyond FY26 after the guidance in late July. The broker currently assumes it will be the same as FY26 until the company clarifies differently.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.94
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Neutral (3) -

Higher-than-anticipated non-cost items resulted in Boss Energy reporting a bigger after-tax loss of -$34m compared to Macquarie's forecast of -$17m.

The balance sheet remains robust at $36.5m with no debt. Independent experts are continuing to review Honeymoon's mineral resource estimate and potential wellfield performance versus previous assumptions.

At this stage, the resource is lowered by -1.4% to 6.5mlbs, and no date was offered on the timeline for review completion.

FY26 production at Honeymoon of 1.6mlbs was reiterated with C1 costs at $41-$51/lb and all-in-sustaining costs of $64-$70/lb.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimates by -7% for FY26 and -2% for FY27 on higher costs. No update was offered on Laramide.

Target price falls -6.7% to $2.10. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.14
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Underweight (5) -

Boss Energy's FY25 revenue of $75.6m missed Morgan Stanley's forecast by -0.7% and consensus by -15.4%, while earnings (EBITDA) of -$28.8m were down -16.5% against both.

Non-cash depreciation of -$18.7m surged, weighing on underlying profit of -$38.8m, a material miss to the broker's expectation.

Operating cash flow (OCF) of $17.4m was -32.9% versus the analysts' number but up 12.4% versus consensus, with negative free cash flow (FCF) of -$39.1m aided by lower capex. Net cash of $36m was broadly in line with expectation.

Guidance is unchanged and underlying operating headwinds remain, cautions the broker, despite some benefit from inventory and ramp-up effects. 

Underweight. Target $1.65. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Hold (3) -

Boss Energy's FY25 result was immaterial, Ord Minnett suggests, as quarterly results were already known. No new forward-looking disclosures were provided.

The status, timing and outcome of Boss Energy’s review into its ability to ramp up Honeymoon to nameplate production levels remains unclear.

Investing for a positive outcome could yield strong gains but would be based on nothing but hope, the broker warns. Ord Minnett considers the uncertainty as too high to make a conviction call on value until more data become available.

Hold and $2.10 target retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.14
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BOE as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Boss Energy’s FY25 result showed a -$34m loss versus Shaw and Partners’ forecast of a $10m profit, due to non-cash inventory adjustments.

Operating performance was in line with the analysts' forecast, but earnings were impacted by -$37m in inventory costs as initial sales came from higher-priced stockpiled uranium rather than Honeymoon output.

FY26 guidance includes production of 1.6mlbs and costs (AISC) of US$41-45/lb, consistent with Shaw's forecasts.

Management raised concerns over achieving nameplate capacity, with continuity and leachability issues prompting an independent review. 

Shaw believes Boss is unlikely to reach nameplate capacity at Honeymoon, with the key uncertainty being how many extra wells are needed , and at what cost.

The broker retains a Buy, High Risk rating and lowers its target price to $2.85 from $2.88.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.89
If BOE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Trim (4) -

It was only in April that Bank of Queensland said it had a “Clear pathway to FY26 8% return on capital and 56% CTI capital targets”.

The bank has now withdrawn those targets due to the “highly unpredictable operating environment” and “accelerating industry headwinds”.

Management nevertheless remains confident in delivering continued ROE and CTI improvement. While Bank of Queensland’s dividend is attractive, Morgans retains a Trim rating given downside risk from increased uncertainty following removal of FY26 ROE/CTI targets.

Target falls to $6.62 from $7.04.

Target price is $6.62 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Speculative Hold (3) -

Bubs Australia's FY25 net revenue was up 29% y/y and met Bell Potter's forecast, while EBITDA of $5.3m was a miss, though the EBITDA itself benefited from $4.9m in insurance proceeds and liability reversals.

Gross margin of 47.9% reflects a worsening in 2H25 to 45.6% from 50.4% in 1H.

The company expects a 40-45% gross margin in FY26 after incorporating 10% US tariffs. More importantly, it expressed confidence in achieving US FDA approval for infant formula, which will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Speculative Hold. Target unchanged at 17.5c.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BUB as Buy (1) -

Bubs Australia reported an outstanding FY25 turnaround, Ord Minnett suggests, from a loss in FY24 to delivering the company’s first ever profit. The results were nonetheless in line with expectations having been effectively pre-released with the quarterly update.

With the recent change in CEO, no outlook commentary was provided. Rather, management stated it would come back to the market with a strategy update in late November. Given the lack of guidance, Ord Minnett has retained its forecasts.

Buy and 20c target retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If BUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BUB as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Bubs Australia delivered FY25 revenue of $102.5m, up 29% year-on-year and broadly in line with Shaw and Partners’ forecast. The gross profit margin was strong at 47.8%, but the broker expects a fall to 40-45% in FY26 due to US tariffs and product mix.

Reported profit of $5.5m came in 8% above the broker's forecast, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $0.6m versus a -$20.3m loss in FY24.

The broker highlights the US as the standout, with sales up 52% to $53.1m, now the largest market. Chinese sales rose 22%, outperforming the market, while Australian sales declined in a competitive environment, explains the analyst.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and 20c target.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If BUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BWN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Bhagwan Marine's FY25 result highlights to Shaw and Partners momentum in oil and gas decommissioning, with four projects completed since Thevenard Island in 2024.

This work strengthens Bhagwan's presence in Australian marine services and supports medium-term revenue growth, suggests the analyst.

The broker points to rising day rates, strong demand, and tight vessel supply as drivers of future margin expansion, with lessons from the Thevenard project expected to lift profitability.

FY26 guidance is positive for pricing and utilisation, according to Shaw, with opportunities in Barrow Island decommissioning and offshore LNG projects such as Scarborough and Barossa. Sustaining capex guidance increased.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.24
If BWN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Australian mortgage growth rose at an annualised 6% pace in July, consistent with the average since the start of 2025. The broker expects robust growth to continue, supported by lower rates, stronger consumer confidence, and fiscal stimulus.

The analysts believe a stronger operating environment, low earnings risk, and healthy balance sheets will sustain trading multiples for the banks above post-covid averages.

National Australia Bank is the broker’s preferred major bank with an Overweight rating, while Westpac becomes least preferred behind CommBank, both rated Underweight.

CommBank's price target is $143.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $143.70 Current Price is $170.30 Difference: minus $26.6 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $114.93, suggesting downside of -31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CHL as Buy (1) -

As Morgans expected, it was a tougher year overall for Camplify Holdings given both sector-specific impacts and company-specific disruptions which saw gross transaction value and revenue decline -16% and -12% respectively.

However, Morgans note an improved trajectory in the the second half, along with 8% growth in future bookings. 

While still in its infancy and not without risk, Morgans believes structural tailwinds supporting Camplify and the large opportunity offshore should provide longer-term growth potential for patient investors if management executes.

Buy and $1.05 target retained.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.58
If CHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 123% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Higher cost of goods sold and finance costs resulted in Capricorn Metals' weaker-than-expected earnings (EBITDA), a miss of -8% on Macquarie's forecast and -10% on consensus for FY25. Net profit after tax also came in below the analyst's estimate by -18% and consensus by -9%.

No dividend was declared, as expected. Closing net cash (including leases) was $324m, with both operating and free cash flow slightly higher than anticipated.

FY26 guidance was retained at 115koz-125koz at an all-in-sustaining cost of $1,530.

Target remains at $10 with no change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.07, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CVL as Buy (1) -

Civmec's FY25 revenue missed Bell Potter's forecast by -2% but not much surprise there as the company had flagged weakness due to delays in key project awards.

The better news was a lift in the order book to $1.25bn in end-July from $600m at the start of the year from the Luerssen acquisition and tender conversion.

The company sees activity levels softer in 1H26 before a pickup from 2H26. The broker adjusted forecasts to factor in an improving outlook in the resources sector and defence revenues, and cut capex forecasts.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -1% but lifted by 4% for FY27.

Buy. Target rises to $1.40 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.2
If CVL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVL as Accumulate (2) -

Civmec delivered a robust second half, Morgans suggests despite well-flagged lower levels of activity. Costs were well managed, as the company reported second half earnings margins of 12.6% versus 10.5% in the first half.

The cyclical low point looks to have set in as Civmec sees volumes (ex defence) picking up through the second half FY26, which suggests to Morgans there are some large contracts that may land before the end of 2025.

The stock is trading on 7x FY26 earnings, with leverage to iron ore replacement works as well as defence spend, and Morgans expects plenty of catalysts to drive a re-rate in the coming months. Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.3
If CVL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EGH as Buy (1) -

Eureka Group largely delivered on its revised FY25 guidance, Morgans notes, reaffirming its commitment to more than 19% earnings growth over FY24 once the capital to be raised in November is fully deployed – a milestone which should be achieved in 2025.

Eureka's investment thesis hasn’t changed, Morgans points out, with the business growing earnings through positive like-for-like rental growth, investment across its existing portfolio, and the incremental acquisition and expansion of new villages.

Commentary suggests macro trends support the business model for affordable seniors’ rental accommodation. Target rises to 85c from 79c, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.35
If EGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EMV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Nothing to see in EMVision Medical Devices' FY25 result, with cash balance of $10.5m and operating cash flow of -$7.8m.

The focus is on progress in the two key products, and Bell Potter notes a sixth pivotal site has been added for the emu brain scanning product. A network of six leading international stroke centres, including the latest UCLA Health, has now been formed.

Initial aeromedical testing was completed with Royal Flying Doctor Service and Australian Stroke Alliance for the First Responder device, demonstrating robustness and suitability under demanding conditions.

The broker notes more studies are due in 1H26, which would finally support the FDA clearance pathway.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $2.95.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.95
If EMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie switches its large-cap gold preference to Outperform-rated Northern Star Resources away from Newmont Corp (now Neutral).

Underweight-rated Evolution Mining is the broker's third choice from large cap stocks under coverage. Shares have rallied 77% so far in 2025.

The $7.00 target is unchanged.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: minus $1.66 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting downside of -22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Experience Co’s result provided further evidence to Ord Minnett that the business is slowly but surely recovering from the absence of its key customers, being Chinese holiday visitors. 

Ord Minnett sees continued improvement in Chinese visitor numbers in the coming years, and this is expected to become a key driver of group earnings.

Given this backdrop and the fact the company exited the year in a net debt position of $10.6m, the decision to recommence dividend payments and a share buyback may be questioned by the market, the broker warns.

Target falls to 25c from 28c, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.1
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the change in accounts to reflect both Lonsec and Evidentia. Post adjusting forecasts for the new reporting structure, revenue from Generation Development came in below the analyst's forecast by -7%, which was offset by lower opex. Earnings (EBITDA) beat by 3% and EPS by 20% for FY25.

Management reinforced the structural growth opportunities of investment bonds, managed accounts and annuities. Expected changes for Division 296 (superannuation) are creating proactive investment in investment bond sales.

Morgan Stanley tweaks EPS forecasts lower by -4.6% for FY26 and -2.9% for FY27. Target rises to $7.50 (from $6.25).

Outperform retained. Industry View: In-Line.

****

At first take Morgan Stanley notes Generation Development reported a FY25 net profit after tax beat of 14% versus consensus.

Revenue (investment bonds) grew 40% on FY26 and net profit after tax (ex annuities/Lonsec) advanced 39% with a 26% margin.

Lonsec profit lifted 13% and Evidentia was a profit miss at $2m versus consensus at $4.1m.

No guidance was offered, as is usually the case, and ongoing momentum for investment bonds is expected.

Overweight. Target price $6.25. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.6
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie switches its large-cap gold preference to Outperform-rated Northern Star Resources away from Newmont Corp (now Neutral).

Underweight-rated Evolution Mining is the broker's third choice from large cap stocks under coverage. Shares have rallied 77% so far in 2025.

In the mid-cap space, the broker's top pick is Genesis Minerals. Unchanged Outperform rating and $5.50 target.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $0.99
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Post Harvey Norman's FY25 earnings (EBIT), which were in line with Citi's forecast, 2H25 franchise earnings (EBIT) beat expectations by around 8% on better sales and operating leverage.

PC sales and appliances picked up in 4Q25 and boosted sales. In July, like-for-like sales rose 6.4%, with the analyst anticipating Australian momentum continuing with an upbeat view on the consumer. NZ also reported a robust lift, which aligned with JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) feedback.

Citi raises its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by around 6% in FY26 and 7% in FY27, with earnings risk seen as to the upside as well as improved operating leverage on increased sales growth.

Target price is raised to $7.70 from $5.80. There is scope for the stock to re-rate as it trades around a -20% discount to the market's valuation, commentary concludes. Buy.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: $0.81
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.59, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Outperform (1) -

Positively, Harvey Norman evidenced acceleration in sales from 2Q25 with Australian sales up 6.1% in FY25. July comparable sales rose 5.4%, boosted by interest rate cuts on consumer confidence and a replacement cycle.

Macquarie sees a compound average growth rate in profit before tax of 11% to FY28 and sales growth of 5% per annum on average.

Macquarie upgrades EPS estimates by 4% for FY26 and 7% for FY27 on the back of an improved earnings outlook for A&NZ and the NZ Retail business. Target price is lifted by 25% to $7.40.

The stock remains Outperform rated and is considered well placed for a cyclical earnings recovery, boosted by operating leverage.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: $0.51
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.59, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Underweight (5) -

Management at Harvey Norman expects a refresh cycle in FY26 as the 2020/2021 covid spending wave flows through, particularly in electrical and outdoor furniture, with outdoor kitchens also gaining traction.

A broader consumer up-cycle is anticipated by the company within one to two years, supported by improving confidence from mid-tier customers, highlights Morgan Stanley.

Competitive intensity remains stable, with event sales driving high consumer awareness and a focus on maintaining market share, explain the analysts. 

UK losses are set to continue in FY26 due to new store openings, notes the broker, though management expects moderation in FY27 as existing stores ramp up. 

Target $4.80. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.59, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Lighten (4) -

Harvey Norman posted FY25 earnings ahead of market expectations as consumers opened their wallets after a long period of being constrained by high interest rates and persistent inflation pressures, Ord Minnett notes.

A highlight of the result was a much tighter rein on costs in the dominant Australian division than has been exhibited in recent years.

Like most of its consumer discretionary peers, the broker notes the retailer also flagged a strong start to FY26, comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate.

Ord Minnett nonetheless maintains a Lighten recommendation on valuation grounds, given the more than 30% rise in the share price since 30 June. Target rises to $5.90 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.59, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS upgrades Harvey Norman to Buy from Neutral and raises the target price to $7.75 from $5.25 post the better-than-expected FY25 result and the robust July trading update. There is also improved confidence in the outlook.

Commentary suggests robust franchising operations generated good growth in FY25, with like-for-like sales in July advancing 6.4%, and Retail in NZ rose 7.2%, slightly ahead of what JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) reported.

The outlook appears to be improving with a more upbeat consumer, UBS notes, and the impact of rate cuts is yet to be reflected in demand.

The retailer is also experiencing a multi-year replacement cycle for computers and outdoor furniture. Prudent cost management is also noted.

The analyst raises EPS forecasts by 10% for FY26 and 14% for FY27 and believes the stock can re-rate and trade on a higher valuation against its historical level.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: $0.86
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.59, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO Ltd's FY25 missed consensus expectations by -9% with revenue broadly in line. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) was a -$43m miss due to a -$58m rehab provision for Nova, Cosmos & Forrestania, Macquarie notes.

Kwinana continues to encounter challenges due to a hefty cost structure and major cash burn, with a full impairment taken in FY25 of -$605m. The analyst views an exit plan as achieving long-term gains for the miner.

No change to $5.50 target and Outperform rating post what are considered "mixed" results. Macquarie tweaks EPS forecasts.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $0.28
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IME as Speculative Buy (1) -

ImExHS' first half results were lower than Morgans' expectations, with political challenges facing its services division along with customer credit risks. 

While a lot appears to be happening in the background, ImExHS hasn’t appeared to gain significant traction in the high-margin software business, Morgans notes, while its services division continues to struggle with pressures on multiple fronts.

The stock trades on an undemanding revenue multiple and Morgans remains cautiously optimistic on the story and opportunity to close the valuation gap to peers upon further de-risking events including further contract growth and evidence of a sustained move into profitability.

Target falls to 35c from 75c, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.13
If IME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Jupiter Mines announced better-than-expected earnings (EBITDA) and net profit after tax, coming in 15%/9% above Macquarie's forecasts, respectively, due to a stronger share of JV profit. A $0.75 dividend was as expected.

Exxaro Resources is acquiring the 50.1% stake in the Tshipi manganese mine that Jupiter does not own. The analyst highlights the transaction implies a valuation of US$778m for Tshipi, or US$388m for Jupiter's share, which suggests 16% upside to its current market capitalisation.

Target raised to 25c from 23c. No change in Outperform rating

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.01
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Buy (1) -

Kina Securities' first half underlying profit rose 16% year on year, broadly in-line with Morgans. It was a clean, solid result in Morgans' view. The only slight negative was underlying cost growth remaining high (up 10%), but this was matched by revenue growth.

Kina continues to deliver profitable growth and the broker sees a favourable long-term growth trajectory, and believes the stock remains too cheap trading on a single-digit forward PE. Target rises to $1.67 from $1.46, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.29
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LIC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Lifestyle Communities' FY25 result showed ongoing earnings volatility, weaker margins and asset value erosion.

Sales recovered in 2H25 to 98 from 41 in1H, but remained well below historic levels, though contracts on hand and settlements provide some optimism. Offsetting that is worsening margin of 13.1% vs 18.9% in FY24, pressured by "meeting the market" pricing.

Loan-to-value ratio rose to 47.8% from 34.7% in 1H but the broker expects debt to decline from project disposals, reduced working capital and lower interest. No earnings guidance was provided. 

The broker lifted FY26-27 EPS estimates slightly but cut FY28 forecast by -4.5%.

Hold. Target rises to $5.70 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: $0.02
If LIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOV as Hold (3) -

Lovisa Holdings' FY25 result mostly beat Bell Potter's forecasts with total stores higher than expected, revenue of $798.1m vs $773.9m forecast, and gross profit margin of 82% vs the broker's 81.8% estimate.

Net profit missed due to a higher cost of goods sold ratio. The highlight was a strong start to FY26 as sales in the first 8 weeks rose 5.6% y/y vs 2% y/y, helped by an increase in new stores.

The broker lifted FY26 net store openings estimate to 135 from 124, and global store network to 1,166 from 1,128 previously. FY26 gross margin forecast was raised, and the cost of goods sold estimate was also lifted to reflect new store openings, refurbishment program and launch of premium brand.

The net outcome was a 6.7% rise to FY26 net profit forecast and 2.3% to FY27.

Hold. Target rises to $42 from $31 on roll-forward and an increase in valuation multiples.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $43.14 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.70, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Overweight (1) -

The recent equity raising reflects Lynas Rare Earths' intent to secure flexibility for expansion in a rapidly changing rare earths market, suggest the analysts at Morgan Stanley.

While some see the raising as a sign of peaking sentiment, the broker stresses ex-China supply still requires significant growth, and the company prefers equity to debt to preserve balance sheet strength.

The analysts explain funds will be deployed across three areas: -$150m to resource and scale, including Mt Weld mine plan work and exploration in ionic clays; -$310m to downstream separation capacity; and -$200m to develop metal and magnet supply chain partnerships.

Overweight. Target rises to $14.75 from $12.85. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: $0.88
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.40, suggesting downside of -20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Underperform (5) -

On additional assessment, Macquarie notes volume guidance is in line, with Mt Marion a marginal miss of -6% and services volumes below consensus by -4%.

Lithium costs are better, but proposed capex is higher by around 8% than consensus (a negative).

Macquarie lowers its FY26 EPS by -6% and lifts FY27 by 5% due to changes in production and cost guidance.

Target price slips to $30 from $31. No change to Underperform rating.

****

Macquarie's first impression is Mineral Resources' underlying result reflected strong cost-out outcomes from a period of navigating a weak lithium market as well as a productivity focus on ramping up Onslow.

Underlying, the broker comments, the FY25 result was a 'beat', with in-line Revenue, Ebitda beating forecast by some 6% and an underlying -$0.1b loss beating consensus by 47%

The statutory loss of -$0.9b marked an -18% 'miss' on impairments. 

Capex was the only blemish on FY26, the broker comments, with volumes and cost mostly in line or slight beats.

Underperform. Target $31.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $37.40 Difference: minus $7.4 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.20, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett reckons Mineral Resources' FY25 result highlighted stronger execution and disciplined capital management, with higher revenue leading to a beat at the operating earnings line.

The broker is pleased with a more realistic guidance for FY25 vs the ambitious forecasts provided in recent years. Volumes met forecasts and unit cost guidance was lower than expected.

Capex guidance was lifted for FY26, but the broker expects it to reduce from FY27. Among the positives was the run-rate at Onslow, which would trigger $200m contingent payment if maintained for 3 months.

Earn-out at Hancock Prospecting is another positive, with the share in $327m payment tied to drilling results on sold permits. Debt refinancing of maturing May 2027 bond at a lower rate is also a tailwind

FY26 EPS forecast more than doubled, and FY27 lifted by 43.7%.

Target rises to $40 from $33. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $37.40 Difference: $2.6
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.20, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Mineral Resources' FY25 was underwhelming, UBS suggests, with a large statutory loss after impairments, and underlying net loss after tax, to go with what has been a transformational transition period for the company's governance.

However, in UBS' opinion, the outlook is getting better. Mineral Resources has a broadening path to organically de-gear, and UBS does not see it needing to raise equity or undertake 'capital recycling', but the broker is open to partial sell-downs subject to adding value.

Buy and $40.40 target retained.

Target price is $40.40 Current Price is $37.40 Difference: $3
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.20, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Metro Mining's 1H25 headline net profit included several one-off items, including the reversal of previous impairments and the recognition of tax losses, resulting in a $119.8m profit compared to a -$37m loss in 1H24.

Shaw and Partners describes it as a strong outcome, signalling a stronger financial footing and validating the turnaround story. 

After factoring in the one-offs in FY25 and no tax payment for FY26-27, the broker's net profit forecasts lifted sharply, up 35% in FY25 and up 37% in FY26.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 17c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.09
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MMS as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter assesses McMillan Shakespeare's FY25 results as broadly in line with guidance and slightly higher than its forecast. The result showed resilience despite contract loss, with novated leasing growth and PSS digital benefits offsetting headwinds.

Revenue was flat y/y in the GRS unit and margin fell to 40.9% reflecting slower cost reallocation following a major contract loss. On the positive side, Oly is emerging as an incremental growth channel.

Revenue rose 12% y/y in PSS, but the broker flagged -$4.5m headwind in FY26 from the removal of set-up fees, which is expected to impact EBITDA. Novated leases grew 9% q/q in 4Q25 despite Cyclone Alfred disruption and the removal of the PHEV discount.

The broker lifted net profit forecasts by 6-7%, reflecting stable vehicle prices and stronger novated lease sales.

Hold. Target increases to $19.70 from $16.30.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $19.59 Difference: $0.11
If MMS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMS as Outperform (1) -

McMillan Shakespeare reported a sequential improvement in earnings over 2H25, with net profit after tax rising 8% on 1H25, even though FY24 was down -4.1%, but came in 3% above consensus, Macquarie highlights.

The PSS segment (NDIS Plan Management) reported earnings growth (EBITDA) of 20.4% in 2H25, with organic customer growth of over 10.5%, or 21.5% including acquisitions.

Novated leases, predominantly in GRS, had improved 2H25 metrics although down -8.9% on the prior year, with EVs making up around 45% of new novated leases in 4Q25, a slight slowdown from the 3Q25 peak. The AMS segment (fleet) was flat.

The exit rate from FY25 is positive, with order momentum for June/July up 11.3% on the previous year.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts by 1.8% for FY26 and 3.7% for FY27. Target rises to $19.69 from $18.81. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $19.69 Current Price is $19.59 Difference: $0.1
If MMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

McMillan Shakespeare's FY25 results were modestly ahead of consensus, notes Morgan Stanley with profit of $103.2m up 2% on $100.8m expected.

Group revenue of $293.4m was -2% below consensus, but underlying profit of $74m was 2% ahead, with novated leasing resilient despite lower salary package volumes following contract losses, explain the analysts.

The Group Remuneration Services (GRS) division delivered stable revenue trends, supported by ex-SA Government growth of 7.4%, highlights Morgan Stanley.

Non-recurring costs in GRS fell to -$1.7m in the second half, implying to the broker a $2.7m release, with no further warehouse adjustments expected in FY26 and a potential tailwind from FY27.

The analysts expect business momentum across all segments, supported by customer growth and reduced non-recurring costs. 

Overweight rating. Target $20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.59 Difference: $0.41
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MMS as Accumulate (2) -

McMillan Shakespeare’s FY25 result was a 4% beat at the earnings line on a combination of better revenue growth as well as improved margins in the second half, Ord Minnett notes. Yields and volumes were both improved in the second half.

Cost discipline has improved with second half margins increasing. Ord Minnett notes Onboard finance is expected to make a positive earnings contribution from the second half FY26 onwards.

Target rises to $21 from $19, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.59 Difference: $1.41
If MMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

APRA data show policyholder growth of 2.2% in the June 2025 quarter, with Macquarie expecting a slight slowdown in FY26. Industry hospital participation rose to 45.4%, though the broker sees this peaking soon as visa-driven support fades.

Private health insurers should act as a safe haven in a weaker economy given lower near-term claims volumes, yet valuations appear stretched.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating on Medibank Private with an unchanged $4.70 target.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MSB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Mesoblast's FY25 revenue of US$17.2m was generated in 4Q and included US$11.3m from Ryoncil. The gross to net discount of -14% was in line with guidance and expected to remain stable.

Bell Potter notes the focus is on Ryoncil label expansion with adult trial recruitment for GvHD (Graft vs Host Disease) starting in the current quarter. Trial design is also currently in progress for Crohn's disease and Ulcerative Colitis.

Trial recruitment is nearing completion for chronic back pain, though no readout is expected before 2027. Heart failure remains the largest addressable market for the company, and BLA submission is expected by the end of 2025.

The broker notes the company has multiple options at better terms for debt refinance due in the coming months.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $1.32
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Australian mortgage growth rose at an annualised 6% pace in July, consistent with the average since the start of 2025. The broker expects robust growth to continue, supported by lower rates, stronger consumer confidence, and fiscal stimulus.

The analysts believe a stronger operating environment, low earnings risk, and healthy balance sheets will sustain trading multiples at the banks above post-covid averages.

National Australia Bank is the broker’s preferred major bank with an Overweight rating, while Westpac becomes least preferred behind CommBank, both rated Underweight.

National Australia Bank;s target is $42.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $42.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.36, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie switches its large-cap gold preference to Outperform-rated Northern Star Resources away from Newmont Corp, which is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following a share price rally.

With fewer near-term risks, the broker sees scope for a positive re-rating of Northern Star, while Newmont’s strong performance is already priced in.

The target price for Newmont Corp rises by 2% to $111.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $111.86 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $111.60, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

APRA data show policyholder growth of 2.2% in the June 2025 quarter, with Macquarie expecting a slight slowdown in FY26. Industry hospital participation rose to 45.4%, though the broker sees this peaking soon as visa-driven support fades.

Private health insurers should act as a safe haven in a weaker economy given lower near-term claims volumes, yet valuations appear stretched.

Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating on nib Holdings with an unchanged $5.50 target.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter reckons the highlight of Nickel Industries' 1H25 result was positive operating cash flows and healthy EBITDA margins despite cyclical commodity price weakness.

Revenue, consolidated EBITDA and net profit all beat the broker's forecasts, though the disappointment was that no interim dividend was declared.

The focus is on the balance sheet with final instalments of -US$126.5m due in Jan and Apr 2026 to lift ownership in the ENC project to 55% from 44%.  The broker also notes -US$140m in interest and amortisation is due in 2H25, but believes the company has the flexibility to manage these.

Optionality includes securing additional debt, refinancing existing facilities and negotiating deferral of ENC instalments.

Overall, the broker assesses the company in a strong position to deliver significant earnings growth from 2H25, supported by a ramp-up in ENC ownership, exposure to nickel-cobalt markets, and recovery potential as the commodity cycle turns.

Buy. Target trimmed to $1.35 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.65
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers its target for Nickel Industries to 70c from 80c post 1H2025 earnings (EBITDA) of US$159m which missed expectations by -3%. Profit at US$25m fell well short of forecast US$52m, arising from higher tax and interest.

Funding and liquidity remain an issue and management has entered into a commitment letter for a US$100m loan facility to be finalised in September. The analyst expects a VAT refund in 2026 of US$100m-plus and a refinancing of debt in 2026.

Citi lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -8% in 2026 including lower NPI price assumptions from 2025, down -2% to -3%, which impacts forecasts post 2026, down -2% to -5%.

No change to Neutral, High Risk rating.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NOL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

According to Shaw and Partners, the highlight of NobleOak Life's FY25 results was a beat at the underlying net profit line and a solid outlook statement, pointing to continued momentum in the business.

Underlying net profit was 5% ahead of forecast, helped by growth in the direct channel. Premium growth is guided to be at least 15% in FY26, and the underlying net profit is expected to grow at least 10%.

The insurer published its first Embedded Value since the IPO, at $2.16/share at the midpoint. The broker notes this compares favourably with the current share price, with the target price accounting for upside potential.

FY26 underlying net profit forecast lifted by 5% and FY27 by 4.8%.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $1.41
If NOL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie switches its large-cap gold preference to Outperform-rated Northern Star Resources (away from Newmont Corp), upgrading the stock to the broker's top pick.

The analyst's KCGM site visit revealed no negative surprises, with the next key catalyst being approvals and an updated Hemi study in the first half of 2026.

With fewer near-term risks, the broker sees scope for a positive re-rating of Northern Star, while Newmont’s strong performance is already priced in.

The $24.00 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $18.89 Difference: $5.11
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.28, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Hold (3) -

Nufarm’s trading update was weaker than consensus expected, Morgans notes. Holding over Omega-3 inventory means that net debt is now materially higher than expected and far too high at 3x earnings.

Unfortunately, the broker concludes, this will likely result in Nufarm selling the best part of the company (Seed Technologies) to reduce it. The strategic review of Seed Technologies is progressing.

In the broker's view, Nufarm is in the too hard basket until we know what this company consists of moving forward and it gets its leverage ratios down to more acceptable levels. Target falls to $2.60 from $2.78, Hold retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.17
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Further highlights from the earnings call have Citi noting the demand profile from management is larger than previously discussed with 2GWs of deals in negotiation for Sydney (alone) and pointing to another record year of contract wins in FY26 at 50-100MWs.

This is in line with the analyst's expectations of 85MWs of bookings in FY26, including another 50MW contract win for M3, 20MW for S3 and another 10MWs in KL.

The conversion to contract is being shortened via rising AI workloads and earnings (EBITDA) of $350m were flagged for FY27.

Management highlighted another $500m-$750m of equity under JVs to develop S4 & S7. Citi views another equity raising as likely.

Buy rated. Target $18.35.

*****

Citi highlights NextDC's FY25 underlying EBITDA of $217m was up 6% y/y, and beat its forecast and the consensus by 1%. Capex was higher than consensus but met the broker's forecast.

Among the positives is potential for over 10% upgrade to consensus EBITDA forecast for FY27 due to faster than expected ramp up in billing.

The company indicated no near-term equity requirement and the broker continues to assume any capital raising would not occur until 2H26, supported by contracts.

Commentary highlights the tone around S5 DA was positive, reinforcing the medium-term growth trajectory.

Buy. Target price $18.35.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $1.85
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NXT as Outperform (1) -

NextDC's FY25 update highlights strong demand underpinned by a 4GW pipeline and faster contract conversions, according to Macquarie.

Partnerships and build-to-suit AI assets are expected to lower capital intensity, support mid-teens returns, and reduce capex requirements by up to -$14.6bn over time, explains the broker.

Macquarie notes execution benefits from a more favourable permitting and construction landscape, while strategic assets position NextDC to benefit from Google’s Connect Australia initiative.

Early stages of the S4 build are already underway, with balance sheet capacity supporting growth, suggests the analyst.

Across FY26-29, the broker's earnings (EBITDA) forecasts rise by 9%, 11%, 18% and 13%, respectively. Macquarie raises its target price to $22.30 from $22.10 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $5.8
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

NextDC reported an in-line FY25 result versus consensus, according to Morgan Stanley, with the company continuing to highlight growing demand for data centre capacity.

The analyst highlights a billing ramp of 57MW in FY26 and 59MW in FY27, which has the potential to lift consensus earnings. The growth in data volume and cloud migration, together with the fast adoption of AI, is underpinning data centre demand domestically and globally.

Joint ventures are seeking high single-digit/low double-digit returns on capital, with 15%-20% equity internal rates of return. Tokyo was announced, and advisors, including Morgan Stanley, appointed for partnerships for S4 & S7, equalling 850MWs.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target lifts to $20.50 from $20.10. Industry View: Attractive. The company is expected to retain its premium valuation relative to Australian and US-listed data centre peers due to the larger development pipeline and relatively higher growth rates.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $4
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXT as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

NextDC’s FY25 result was in line with Morgans' expectations as was FY26 guidance, but FY27 guidance is higher. The ramp-up profile of contracted mega-watts is faster than anticipated.

The pipeline is larger than ever, and setting up a partnership in Japan and JVs for S4/S7 will lower NextDC’s equity requirements, Morgans notes. While none of these items are totally new, collectively they represent to the broker good reasons for the share price to rally strongly.

Target rises to $19.00 from $18.80, downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (no specific reason provided by the broker)..

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $2.5
If NXT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes NextDC's FY25 earnings met its forecasts, and the guidance for FY26 operating earnings was a slight beat to market expectations.

The highlight was a new debt deal, with the senior debt facility rising to $6.4bn from $3.5bn at lower interest rates and with no maturity before December 2029. The broker reckons it provides enough liquidity to fund over 70% of NSW/Victoria developments.

A JV to develop and operate S4 (Horsley Park) and S7 (Eastern Creek) in western Sydney was also announced, with the company retaining operational control via a minority stake.

No change to FY26 EBITDA forecast but FY27 increased by 9% and FY28 by 1%.

Buy. Target rises to $19 from $18.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $2.5
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

The introduction of AI-related Hyperscaler contracts has materially accelerated NextDC's activation profile, faster than UBS had anticipated. Of the 134MW contracted but not activated, NextDC  will activate 115MW over FY26/27 to 226MW, a 26% uplift in activation versus consensus.

The accelerated activation has driven 13% earnings upgrades in FY27. In UBS' view, the structural AI thematic is reaccelerating, cloud remains very strong and we are likely to go back into a period of investors wanting to increase exposure to both.

The broker maintains NextDC as one of its Key APAC Buy recommendations. Target rises to $21.45 from $20.20.

Target price is $21.45 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $4.95
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Hold (3) -

PointsBet Holdings' FY25 revenue and normalised EBITDA forecasts met Bell Potter's forecast and came in at the low end of the guidance ranges. Statutory EBITDA missed on account of one-offs like legal fees and transaction costs.

No guidance was provided, which is understandable given the M&A at play. The Board reiterated shareholders accept the Mixi Australia offer, noting Mixi lifted its stake to over 50% and extended the offer period to September 12.

FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts lowered by -15% and -10%, respectively, on lower EBITDA margin and assumption of lower average wagered per client in Australia and Canada.

Hold. Target maintained at $1.25, equating the Mixi offer price.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Paladin Energy's FY25 highlights early-stage growing pains at the Langer Heinrich Mine, but improving 4Q performance provides confidence heading into FY26.

Revenue in the first full year of production met the broker's forecast, but cost of goods sold, eBITDA and net profit all missed. The 4Q momentum is expected to continue in 1H26 before full production is reached in 2H.

The company provided an update for the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project, lifting capex estimate to US$1.2bn from US$838m and pushing back the timeline for first production to 2031 from 2029. 

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 4% and by 2% for FY27.

Target lifted to $9.00 from $8.70 on roll-forward and updates on PLS. Buy retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $1.15
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.73, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Perpetual missed FY25 EBITDA by -1% and consensus by -2%, with a lower tax rate boosting net profit after tax to be 3% better. Dividend was -2% below consensus.

Corporate Trust was the standout with EBITDA up 9% on FY24 and base fees fell -2bps, although stronger performance fees helped Pendal.

The analyst sees it as a mixed report with lots of work ahead to improve earnings growth.

Target $20.40. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $21.73 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.57, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Following a further review of FY25 results, Macquarie believes Pexa Group is at a pivotal point, with a second Tier 1 lender potentially accelerating broader bank adoption.

The broker cuts its EPS forecasts by -17.4% in FY26, -19.2% in FY27, and -12.4% in FY28 on softer Exchange margins and slower UK share gains.

The target price rises to $17.30 from $14.72, after Macquarie adopts a new valuation method.

The broker's initial thoughts on FY25 were summarised as follows.

In first impressions of Pexa Group's FY25 result, Macquarie highlights the FY26 core net profit guidance of $5-15m implies a downgrade to consensus forecast. Consensus is currently sitting at $15.6m, 36% above the midpoint of guidance.

FY25 net profit of $41.1m was 6.6% above consensus but below the broker's forecast of $46.m. The beat vs consensus was due to treatment of significant items, and underlying revenue and EBITDA were weak.

Pexa exchange margin of 55% was up from 50% in FY24, but missed the broker's estimate of 55.4%. International operating cash flow of -$57.7m compared with guidance of -$55-58m. 

The digital solutions business remains under review, with divestment or further investment being considered.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $15.34 Difference: $1.96
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

While Pexa Group produced an in-line FY25, the FY26 guidance missed UBS' expectations by -7% and came in below consensus by -11.5%. The weaker outlook is due to higher costs, investment in the UK platform rollout, and lower expected near-term revenues.

UK revenues remain exposed to remortgages, which remain weak, and the expansion into Sale & Purchase through the NatWest launch is not expected until 1H27.

Australian Exchange earnings (EBITDA) margins of 55% in FY25 are anticipated to remain in FY26.

UBS cuts its EPS estimates by -25% for FY26 and -24% for FY27. Target price moves up to $17.45 from $17.35. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $15.34 Difference: $2.11
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RDY as Buy (1) -

ReadyTech Holdings' FY25 result was softer than consensus but underlying profit was broadly in line with Morgans. 

FY26/27 guidance was downgraded, and implies a gradual step-up in run-rate as net recurring revenue improves (off a challenging FY25) through cloud migration in local government and delivering on its Enterprise wins/pipeline.

Morgans believes ReadyTech is well positioned to deliver growth over coming years as customers seek to modernise their enterprise software and convert from legacy systems. Target falls to $3.00 from $3.45, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.66
If RDY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 45.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Neutral (3) -

Resimac Group’s FY25 result shows around 20% half-on-half growth in pre-provision profit, boosted by the Westpac ((WBC)) auto finance portfolio acquisition, highlights Macquarie.

Excluding this, growth was closer to 6%, explains the analyst, with small increases in mortgage and asset finance volumes supported by stronger margins.

Mortgage margins rose 6bps to 134bps and exit net interest margin (NIM) up 7bps versus the half. Asset finance margins were impacted by the acquisition, observes Macquarie, though exit NIMs improved.

The broker's earnings forecasts increase by 15%, 7%, and 1% for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, reflecting the acquired loan book. EPS changes beyond FY28 remain negligible.

Macquarie raises its target price to $1.05 from 95c and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.01
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.02, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RTH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses RAS Technology's FY25 result as strong, with annual recurring revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow in line or beating its forecasts. The company ended FY25 with $5.7m cash and no debt.

The highlight was 19% growth in Enterprise & Industry Solutions, and 42% y/y growth in Digital & Media, boosted by Hong Kong acquisitions.

The company announced multiple deals, including approval from Racing Australia as a licensed wholesaler of thoroughbred racing and the launch of the BetBridge embedded racing product to market. Several expansions were also announced in Asia.

Overall, the broker notes the company continues to grow over 30% per year and profitably, and trades at just 1.4x sales.

Buy. Target lifted to $1.82 from $1.78.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.83
If RTH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie cuts its target price for South32 to $2.70 from $3.20 and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following FY25 results.

Earnings (EBITDA) were in line with the broker's forecast, though profit came in -5% adrift of the consensus estimate and the dividend was a -7% miss due to weaker free cash flow (FCF).

Guidance for FY26 and FY27 volumes is broadly consistent with Macquarie's forecasts except at Cannington, where lower grades drive a 27% cut to ore milled. Silver, lead and zinc production are all well below expectations.

Company-wide costs are set to rise, cautions the broker, with Cannington, South African Manganese and Sierra Gorda all showing material cost inflation. Capex guidance of -US$1.4bn is below consensus.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

In the wake of FY25 results for South32, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $3.30 from $3.45 and stays with an Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker revises its production, cost and capex assumptions in line with FY26 and FY27 guidance. EPS forecasts fall by -25% and -16.3% to US$0.19 and US$0.24 per share, respectively.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.58
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers its target to $2.75 from $2.90 on South32 post the FY25 result, with a review of Cannington resulting in lower expected mining volumes of circa 1.8mtpa over FY26 to FY31 due to increased complexity and underground activity, UBS highlights.

Costs are expected to rise around 5% in FY26 on reduced volumes, with management seeing optionality to extend the 6-year mine life by 2–4 years for Cannington with limited capex.

The likely closure of Mozal is also disappointing, with the severe drought constraining volumes to 350MW compared to 950MW required. Management has lowered FY26 guidance to 240kts and expects care & maintenance from March 2026.

Hermosa continues to progress as expected with no US tariff impacts.

UBS lowers its EPS forecasts by -42% for FY26 and -7% for FY27. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.03
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Steadfast Group’s FY25 earnings (EBITA) were in line with Macquarie’s forecast, with profit supported by lower amortisation.

The broker notes disclosure changes, with less detail on acquisition multiples and M&A spend, though FY26 guidance implies only around -$90m of acquisitions versus $300m in prior years.

The analyst highlights operational risks from executive changes, with the chair to retire in October 2025 and further succession updates expected in 2026.

Macquarie's earnings forecasts lift by 1% for both FY26 and FY27, with 1-3% upgrades beyond this period. The $7.00 price target and Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: $0.92
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Steadfast Group is moving closer to a global reinsurance ecosystem with the acquisition of Novum, a US wholesale brokerage with digital marketplace capacity.

Post FY26 guidance update, the analyst lowers FY26 EPS by -3% on reduced topline growth and -1% for FY27. Target price rises to $6.74.

Overweight rating retained. Industry view: In-Line.

****

Steadfast Group's FY25 underlying earnings (EBITA) were in line with forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus, as lower head office costs offset softer revenues. Profit was around -1% below the broker’s forecast but met consensus.

The FY25 dividend of 19.5c was also just under the analysts' forecast for 20.6c.

FY26 guidance for underlying profit of $315-325m, implies to Morgan Stanley 6-10% growth, supported by 3 percentage points from acquisitions and 3-4 percentage points organic.

Management expects SME insurance pricing to rise 3-5% in Australia, with broking gross written premium up 6% and agency growth of 5.5%.

Target $6.71. Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: $0.66
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIG as Accumulate (2) -

The highlight of Sigma Healthcare's maiden MergeCo result for Ord Minnett was strong operating cashflow, better than expected net debt and a solid start to FY26. Underlying EBIT in FY25 met the broker's forecast.

The company expects double-digit Chemist Network sales growth in FY26, higher than the 2H rate, and lifted synergy benefits over 4 years to $100m from $60m.

Management changes were announced, including Mark Davis stepping down as CFO.

Accumulate. Target rises to $3.20 from $3.00 on roll-forward and net working capital revisions.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.08
If SIG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Hold (3) -

Smartgroup Corp’s first half profit rose 12% year on year but was flat half on half, in line with expectations. The earnings margin of 40% was in line with management’s target.

Lease demand was solid, Morgans notes, up 10% half on half. EVs made up 48% of orders, with volumes continuing post the plug-in hybrid EV policy end.

Smartgroup is setting up for accelerated growth into FY27/28. In Morgans' view, this will be somewhat contingent on the continuation of the EV policy through that period. Target rises to $9.10 from $7.95, Hold retained.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: $0.05
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.27, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter assesses Solvar's FY25 result as mixed, with net profit up 84% y/y and dividend up 40% to 14c. However, at the reported net profit line, it missed consensus by -1% on lower net interest income and higher bad debt charges than expected.

The Australian loan book rose 5.3% y/y to $832m and beat the broker's forecast. However, originations of $389m were down -2.5% y/y, and reflected a -6% y/y decline in 2H originations.

The broker is now less confident its 11% growth forecast for FY26-27 will be met, but has still retained them. The new Bennji business is not expected to make much impact in the short term , but the broker sees it adding 12% to the loan book in 2-3 years' time.

Target unchanged at $1.60. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on share price gains.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If SVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVR as Accumulate (2) -

Solvar’s FY25 result was broadly in line with Morgans' expectations. The group's loan book contracted -2.2% year on year with growth in Australian receivables offset by a run-off of its discontinued NZ operations.

Net interest income was down -3.6% year on year.

While the group has seen some near-term contraction in its loan book, due to the wind down of its NZ business, Morgans sees the non-bank lender as being well positioned to become a medium-term turnaround story.

Target rises to $1.85 from $1.75, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.08
If SVR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SXL as Neutral (3) -

UBS points to the positive pickup in market share against a backdrop of a soft ad market for Southern Cross Media in FY25.

Broadcast radio revenue was 5% above consensus, boosted by metro audio up 4% on the prior year. Digital audio was weaker, with 2H25 slowing to 19% annual growth due to May/June conditions post election.

A surprise 2c dividend was announced, marking the resumption of a capital payout after a 12-month pause.

UBS assumes better cost management and raises its EPS forecasts by 12% for FY26 and 10% for FY27, as well as lower assumed D&A. EPS estimates rise by 112% for FY26 and 93% for FY27.

Target price moves up by 11% to 77c from 69c previously. No change to Neutral rating, as the analyst believes it is too soon for a macro recovery.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as Outperform (1) -

During the first half, management at TPG Telecom reduced net debt to earnings (EBITDA) to 2.7 times after repaying $1.7bn in 1H25, highlights Macquarie. Lower interest costs are expected to support cash flow, deleveraging and a growing dividend, suggests the analyst.

Digital-first brands drove more than half of mobile subscriber additions, observes the broker, with lower average revenue per user (ARPU) offset by margin gains.

Postpaid subscribers have returned to growth with lower churn, observes Macquarie, while prepaid remained strong despite international student headwinds. NBN subscriber numbers fell, though higher ARPU partly offset this.

Macquarie cuts its target price to $5.60 from $5.80 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.31
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers TPG Telecom’s FY25 results in-line, with mobile services revenue growth of 2% from 100k mobile subscribers via Optus regional network sharing. Operating free cash flow rose 24% to $246m.

The analyst continues to prefer Telstra Group ((TLS)) as the market leader in the telco sector, with a higher degree of confidence in the rising dividend outlook for the market leader.

For capital growth potential, Aussie Broadband ((ABB)) is preferred, while TPG, commentary concludes at around 7.5 times FY26 earnings (EBITDA) the shares remain relatively expensive for the growth on offer.

Target raised to $4.70 from $4.35. Underweight rating. Industry view: "In-Line."

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TTX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Tetratherix has posted its maiden FY25 result as a listed company which was in line with Morgans' expectations. The share price (up 42%) has performed well since the IPO on 30 June 2025.

There are several catalysts to come over the next six to twelve months which will maintain investor interest, Morgans suggests. The key catalysts revolve around securing regulatory approval for the bone regeneration applications.

Target rises to $5.76 from $5.72, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $5.76 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.59
If TTX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGN as Buy (1) -

Virgin Australia's reported earnings for FY25 closely met prospectus expectations with less than 1% variance across its major metrics, although positively, cash flow was better than expected and net debt came in below UBS' forecast at $70m.

FY26 outlook broadly matched the commentary offered at the IPO, with capacity growth meeting demand and expected to be up 4% in 1H26.

RASK growth is flagged by Virgin at 3%-5% for 1H26, and staff costs are slightly above inflation. Fuel costs are hedged for FY26, with transformation benefits at $400m.

UBS lifts its EPS estimates by 2% for FY26 and 3% for FY27. Target rises to $4.10 from $3.90, with a maintained Buy rating and an appealing valuation relative to Qantas Airways ((QAN)).

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.65
If VGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27: