Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ABP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has lifted its cost of capital used for valuation models for the third time in 2022, taking the risk-free rate up by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% after starting the calendar year at 3.0%.

The broker has also increased capitalisation rate, floating debt cost and inflation assumptions. This results in a -5% average cut to property sector price targets, or -15% total in 2022. The sector is now trading at a -10% discount to revised targets.

Abacus Property upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target falls to $3.10 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.41
If ABP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AKE as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans disagrees with recent market views of pending oversupply of lithium and expects demand will remain strong for the next 12 months. The broker's forecasts for realised lithium prices in FY23 -24 have increased, given the continued strength of the spot market.

As a result, Morgans lifts its rating for Allkem to Add from Hold and raises its target to $15.70 from $15.00. At the same time, a note of caution is added regarding highly volatile share prices in the sector.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.59 Difference: $1.11
If AKE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.16, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Neutral (3) -

Aristocrat Leisure's FY22 broadly result met Credit Suisse's forecasts, posting a small miss on digital and a small beat on land-based gaming.

The broker cuts its FY23 digital revenue forecasts accordingly, unconvinced that the company can bat it out in an increasingly competitive and flattening user-expenditure environment. The broker also forecasts higher costs, reflecting currency and componentry challenges.

Credit Suisse says buyback prospects have diminished but remains hopeful they may return in the FY23 September half. Meanwhile, there is plenty of balance sheet room for M&A, says the broker, which could change the picture.

EPS forecasts fall -1% to -4% across FY23 to FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $36.50 from $37.20.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $0.52
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.00, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure's full year results were a -2% miss to Macquarie's forecasts, with net profit up 27% to $1,099m.

The broker is anticipating the company can deliver 12% growth in the coming year to $1,236m, supported by a 9 percentage point benefit from foreign exchange movement.

The broker sees good momentum in land based operations, but highlights challenges to the US casino revenues and to Pixel United. Macquarie is more cautious on the outlook than is Aristocrat Leisure. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreased to $43.00 from $44.00.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $7.02
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.00, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

While Aristocrat Leisure reported in-line FY22 results, Morgan Stanley is concerned by management commentary on land-based margins, Digital growth and a delay in the planned i-gaming launch.

Earnings growth in FY22 was driven by the land-based business, while US dollar earnings for Digital were flat and management guided to lower (but still positive) earnings, explains the analyst. Overall the company expects profit (NPATA) growth in FY23.

The land-based margin pressure derived from increased supply chain costs in the 2H of FY22, which is expected to carry over into FY23, notes the analyst.

The target falls to $43 from $45 and the Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $7.02
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.00, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

FY22 group earnings for Aristocrat Leisure were around Morgans expectations though slightly below the consensus forecast. A post-result share price dip is thought to present a buying opportunity. 

There was a strong performance from the land-based gaming business while growth in the digital gaming business came to a halt (as expected) as the mobile games market normalised post-covid.

Profit (NPATA) for the financial year fell -1.1% short of the broker's estimate on higher finance costs. Strong forecast growth rates lead to stronger revenue expectations, which offset any profit downgrades. The target price is unchanged at $43. Add.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $7.02
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.00, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Outperform (1) -

Today, the ASX released the independent report from Accenture’s review into the CHESS replacement project, which now effectively has been thrown into the sin bin.

The ASX had set itself up to be an international leader in adopting blockchain technology in finance, but the ambition has ended with failure.

Macquarie abstains from any coloured views on the matter, simply noting the ASX will incur a -$245m-$255m (pre-tax) write-down charge in 1H23, which will be recognised as a significant item and have no impact on dividends.

As the broker continues to see the exchange as a "very defensive" option against a weakening macro outlook, the Outperform rating is retained.

Macquarie also sees upside risk to consensus Interest Income from FY24. Target price unchanged at $90.00.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $71.13 Difference: $18.87
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.79, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Alumina shares have rallied around 30% when the index has managed 7%, Ord Minnett notes, despite alumina prices remaining flat. The key driver have been lower gas prices in Spain, which have settled at half the price of that in February.

Spanish gas prices have been the main drag on earnings this year, Ord Minnett points out, along with lower alumina prices, leading the San Ciprian refinery to generate significant cash losses.

The next catalyst would need to be improved alumina prices, and the broker does not see that happening near term. Downgrade to Hold from Buy, target unchanged at $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BWP as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett has lifted its cost of capital used for valuation models for the third time in 2022, taking the risk-free rate up by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% after starting the calendar year at 3.0%.

The broker has also increased capitalisation rate, floating debt cost and inflation assumptions. This results in a -5% average cut to property sector price targets, or -15% total in 2022. The sector is now trading at a -10% discount to revised targets.

BWP Trust downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target falls to $4.00 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.01
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall continues to grow funds under management, with first quarter property funds under management of $72.1bn up 9.9% since the end of the fiscal year. 

Macquarie highlights growth was underpinned by $3.9bn in net acquisitions and Chifley South moving into the development pipeline.

Operating earnings guidance of at least 90 cents per share was reiterated, but Macquarie anticipates an upgrade to guidance at the first half result given progress on acquisitions.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.88 from $14.63.

Target price is $14.88 Current Price is $13.50 Difference: $1.38
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.67, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DTL as Hold (3) -

Morgans walked away from Data#3's investor day with the same expectation as upon arrival: the company will continue delivering double digit EPS growth. The Australian Information & Communication Technology sector is growing above GDP.

Customers key technology priorities are not discretionary so IT spend and Data#3's revenue (45% commercial/55% government) should continue to grow, regardless of the economic cycle.

Management noted an acceleration in its higher margin services areas, which includes Project Services, Managed Services and People and Consulting.

The Hold rating and $6.42 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.42 Current Price is $6.73 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Flight Centre Travel is targeting earnings of $70-90m in the first half, but is yet to provide full year guidance. 

Macquarie notes limited visibility over longer-term targets, with the company anticipating revenue margins will improve from current levels but remain below pre-covid by FY25.

Ongoing outperformance in corporate was a positive from the update, with the segment contributing $58m to underlying earnings in the first four months of the year. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $17.75 from $18.20.

Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $16.14 Difference: $1.61
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.19, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp has reported record full year earnings and net profit of $380m, a miss to Macquarie's expected $392m but within the company's guidance range. Macquarie finds the result reflective of significant global demand for Australian grain and oilseeds.

Commentary from the Agricultural Bureau suggests a third consecutive above-average crop is anticipated in 2022-2023, but Macquarie notes flooding has delayed harvest. The company expects this delay will impact on yield and quality. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.80 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: $2.97
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Morgans key takeaway from GrainCorp's FY22 result was stronger-than-expected operating cashflow. Due to a few one-off items, the overall result came in slightly weaker than forecast and at the bottom-end of the guidance range.

A financial year (a record) doesn't get much better than this, according to the broker, and FY23 earnings are unlikely to exceed FY22, especially with wet weather creating some uncertainty. A smaller crop and lower marketing margins and crush margins are set to weigh.

With earnings expected to decline, a Hold rating is retained and Morgans target price is reduced to $8.50 from $8.99.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: $0.67
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HCW as Outperform (1) -

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT has announced several transactions which Macquarie expects to be 1.1% accretive to funds from operations.

This includes acquisition of the Vitality Village Health Club for $29m and a stake in the Camden Medical Precinct for $$33m, as well as a partnership with private hospital operator Mater. 

The broker highlights accretion will be offset by a higher cost of debt, but transactions will improve balance sheet leverage. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.66 from $1.54.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.065
If HCW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HMC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett has lifted its cost of capital used for valuation models for the third time in 2022, taking the risk-free rate up by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% after starting the calendar year at 3.0%.

The broker has also increased capitalisation rate, floating debt cost and inflation assumptions. This results in a -5% average cut to property sector price targets, or -15% total in 2022. The sector is now trading at a -10% discount to revised targets.

Home Consortium downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target falls to $5.60 from $6.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.61
If HMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HPI as Add (1) -

Hotel Property Investments reaffirmed FY23 DPS guidance of 18.4cps at its AGM. Management also updated on the sale of a regional pub for $6.2m, in line with ongoing sales of non-core assets, explains Morgans.

The focus remains, according to the analyst, on portfolio quality via the refurbishment/lease harmonisation program.

The broker retains its Add rating for the internally-managed REIT, while the target slips to $3.68 from $3.74.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.56
If HPI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Year-to-date sales from KMD Brands are in line with Macquarie's expectations as the company cycles off lockdowns in the previous comparable period. The company reports a sales increase of 61.8% year-on-year, and a 17.5% increase on pre-covid levels. 

The broker sees upside risk moving into the second quarter, but notes successful execution of a recent marketing step up to support offshore expansion remains an unknown. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $0.90 are retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Lovisa Holdings' sales have remained strong through the first half, and anticipates the retailer will report 29% total sales growth. 

The broker finds consumer demand has largely held up despite cost of living pressures, with Australian retail foot traffic data suggesting sales are tracking above 2019 levels while the US remains below 2019 levels but on the road to recovery. 

The Buy rating and target price of $24.00 are retained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.88 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.69, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reports outflows remain an issue for Magellan Financial, with the company reporting outflows of -$2.4bn in October. The broker expects outflows to remain at current levels, equating to a further -$2.8bn in the fiscal year, with global equities funds most at risk.

The broker's earnings per share forecasts are updated -7.3% and -17.5% in FY23 and FY24, and 17.0% in the following years to reflect market movements.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.25 from $13.00.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $10.15 Difference: $0.1
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGH as Outperform (1) -

Maas Group has revised its full year earnings guidance to $150-180m, from $180-200m, given wet weather and slower residential real estate sales. 

Macquarie highlights while guidance has decreased -13% at the midpoint, the wider range reflects uncertainty as wet weather continues to pose a risk to earnings. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.40 from $3.55. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.93
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

A further AGM update on Medibank Private's cyber crime woes revealed no further suspicious activity since October 12, notes Morgan Stanley, while associated non-recurring costs are still estimated to be around -$25-35m.

Management reported that in the year-to-November 12, policyholder growth was 14,500, showing only a small decline since the cyber crime commenced.

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and $3.05 target. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.26
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NSR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett has lifted its cost of capital used for valuation models for the third time in 2022, taking the risk-free rate up by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% after starting the calendar year at 3.0%.

The broker has also increased capitalisation rate, floating debt cost and inflation assumptions. This results in a -5% average cut to property sector price targets, or -15% total in 2022. The sector is now trading at a -10% discount to revised targets.

National Storage REIT downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target falls to $2.60 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.13
If NSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm's full year earnings were a modest miss to Citi's expectations. Group earnings grew 17% year-on-year, with Australia Pacific up 21% and North America up 42%.

The company expects conditions to remain favourable into the new year, and anticipates modest earnings growth. Nufarm also reiterated that it remains on track to meet FY26 revenue aspirations of more than 4.6 bn.  

The Buy rating and target price of $6.40 are retained.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $0.5
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Nufarm's FY22 result slightly outpaced consensus and was a touch shy of Credit Suisse's forecasts, thanks to an acceleration in the legacy Seeds business and crop-protection products.

Guidance satisfied the broker, as did the inventory position, and the broker expects continued growth in crop protection products and Seeds, due to seasonal factors in Australia and the growth in the US plantings.

EPS forecasts are upgraded sharply across FY23 to FY25, 6% of which relates to an accounting change surrounding step-up securities.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $7.09 from $6.05.

Target price is $7.09 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $1.19
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Beating Macquarie's expectations, Nufarm has reported full year net profits of $133m. The company now guides to modest earnings growth in the coming year despite tough comparables, and Macquarie anticipates growth of 3%. 

The broker expects crop protection demand to remain strong despite some easing of supply chain pressures. The company appears on track to meet or exceed its aspirational FY25 targets. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.75 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $1.85
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley likes the cash flow performance within FY22 results for Nufarm. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $447m were a 4% beat versus the broker's forecast. It's felt Omega 3 and Bioenergy initiatives may be on the cusp of delivery.

The analyst retains an Equal-weight rating as most of the good news is already factored-in, and raises its target to $6.80 from $6.40. While the APAC region was considered broadly in line, North America, Seed Tech and Europe were stand-outs.

Largely due to higher earnings in North America and Europe, Morgan Stanley raises its FY23 underlying earnings forecast by 11%. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $0.9
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Hold (3) -

On a longer-term view Hold-rated Nufarm remains Morgans key pick in the Agricultural & Chemicals sector following FY22 results. Earnings (EBITDA) slightly beat consensus while profit was a more material beat on lower tax and D&A expenses.

The balance sheet continues to deleverage after cashflow came in significantly stronger than the analyst expected.

Management expects only modest earnings growth in FY23 though is confident of meeting FY26 revenue targets. The broker expects solid earnings growth from the 2H of FY23, which should continue into FY24-26, in line with the company's growth strategy.

The target price rises to $6.70 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $0.8
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NUF as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Nufarm's result met forecasts, with North America a highlight and Asia-Pacific solid, Ord Minnett notes. Europe was more muted.

FY23 outlook commentary for “modest underlying EBITDA growth” on a constant-currency basis was positive, the broker suggests, underpinned by favourable conditions and a strong outlook for soft commodity prices.

European regulatory headwinds seem to be abating, but management otherwise believes it can offset through organic growth and new products.

Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold, target rises to $6.40 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $0.5
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

UBS describes Nufarm's full year result as reflective of  structural improvements made in recent years. The broker highlights Nufarm has been able to improve its cost to serve, balance sheet strength, product portfolio composition and working capital disciplines.

Nufarm reported 24% earnings growth to $447m and operating cashflow of $360m.

In a positive surprise to market expectations, the company guided to earnings growth in the coming year, which UBS expects to be underpinned by solid agricultural demand conditions in North America and Europe.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.50 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $1.6
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact Group has guided to first half earnings of $68-73m, a miss to Macquarie's expected $80m, and net profit of $20-25m, compared to the broker's $35m. Despite improvement, the broker highlights supply chains remain challenged.

The update from Pact Group sees Macquarie lower its earnings per share assumptions by -34% and -21% for FY23 and FY24 respectively.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.39 from $2.08.

Target price is $1.39 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.16
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 118.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

The most recent spodumene auction has generated a record price of US$8,575/dmt, highlights Macquarie. In addition, Pilbara Minerals' Capital Management Framework demonstrates a disciplined approach to capital, in the broker's view.

The Outperform rating and $7.70 target are unchanged, while the company is now expected to announce a maiden dividend of 34c for FY23.

While the auction outcome is better-than-expected, only minor changes have been made to forecasts, also incorporating the announced dividend policy.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $2.78
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

South32 has been downgraded by Macquarie to Neutral from Outperform with unchanged price target of $4.40. The broker is anticipating emerging headwinds for the miner's earnings.

Illawarra Coal is expected to slow down over the near term due to soft coking coal prices and weak output. The broker thinks alumina and aluminium operations are facing rising costs and subdued prices.

It is noted the shares have performed strongly recently.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.18
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie, in an initial response to today's trading update released by Sonic Healthcare, notes the company did not provide guidance for FY23.

While assessing the numbers released by the company today, Macquarie's conclusion is run-rates are currently below its own forecasts for H1, and also below what market consensus has penciled in.

Macquarie highlights its own EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 are respectively -6% and -8% below market consensus. Underperform rating. Price target $31.50.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $32.29 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.78, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Ventia Services has reiterated profit guidance as per IPO prospectus during its first ever investor day. Macquarie's response is the company continues to navigate well through weather impacts and cost challenges.

According to the company, 1H Work in hand was at record $17.3b and is on track for $18b by December. Macquarie adds there is a strong pipeline of additional opportunities.

The broker makes a point of highlighting Ventia's attractive market outlook with outsourced maintenance services expected to grow at a 6.6% CAGR to FY26 as per prospectus forecasts.

In addition, the company also expects to benefit from energy transition tailwinds. Outperform rating and $3 target price. No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.48
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Webjet's interim report has been well-received at Citi, with the broker, upon initial glance, labeling it a "strong result". EBITDA of $72.5m was no less than 25% better than what market consensus was anticipating.

On the basis of current trends, Citi is suggesting management's guidance for the year ahead might yet prove to be conservative.

Buy. Target $6.48.

Target price is $6.48 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.86
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Outperform (1) -

In an initial assessment, Macquarie reports Webjet's interim report has revealed both profits and operating margins well ahead of forecasts.

The broker highlights a lower cost base, a solid balance sheet and improving cash flows.

Outperform. Target $6.15.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.53
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Webjet released H1 financials this morning and Ord Minnett, in an initial response, has placed its $7.34 valuation under review, alongside a Buy rating with a Higher Risk assessment.

It appears the company's performance has beaten the broker's numbers on just about every metric that counts.

Ord Minnet's reaction is: "very strong", but also "we were well above consensus".

The company has stated it is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of profitability in FY23. Ord Minnett notes Webbeds is growing market share.

Target price is $7.34 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $1.72
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

A quick first glance at Webjet's result reveals to UBS strong revenue growth, well controlled costs and and very strong cash generation.

This implies the first half FY23 performance is well ahead of consensus, and even allowing for an assumed economic slowdown in the second, guidance suggests at least 4% FY23 earnings growth.

Buy and $6.50 target retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.88
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources