Australian Broker Call
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December 09, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
IGO - | IGO | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
S32 - | South32 | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
WHC - | Whitehaven Coal | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Overnight Price: $5.64
Credit Suisse rates A2M as Neutral (3) -
A2 Milk Company's flagship store formula pricing hit 2021 price highs in China in November, distributor pricing also rising, says Credit Suisse.
However, a -1.7% year-on-year sales decrease on China's largest e-commerce shopping day reflected lower industry demand given declining births.
Neutral rating and $5.75 target price are retained.
Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.11
If A2M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 37.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.98
Citi rates AKE as Buy (1) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi increases Allkem's target price to $12 from $11. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $3.02
If AKE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of -3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.85
UBS rates APM as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
UBS initiates coverage on APM Human Services International, which has underperformed the Small Ordinaries Index by -25% since its IPO on November 12, 2021. A Buy rating and $3.30 target price are set for the government-funded essential human services provider.
The analyst recognises risks surrounding changing government regulation and major contract re-negotiations, but recent contract wins and a strong pipeline of additional contract opportunities are considered to outweigh these.
The company also continues to outperform peers and the broker expects APM will gain further market share. The main human services provision relates to employment services for the disadvantaged and/or disabled.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.45
If APM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.27
Ord Minnett rates COE as Accumulate (2) -
Coopepr Energy's management has lowered FY22 operatings earnings guidance -11% and production guidance in response to problems at the Orbost gas processing plant.
Ord Minnett notes that higher cost forecasts coincide with stronger spot prices.
So given the company is trading below the broker's 33c target price and given the company's positive exposure to gas prices in the near term, Ord Minnett retains its Accumulate rating.
Cooper Energy is in talks with APA Group to purchase the Orbost gas plant for $200m and Ord Minnett believes the acquisition to be sensible, the broker's only concern being the likelihood the purchase will raise the company's gearing above 40%.
Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.06
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.98
Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi reduces Fortescue Mining's target price to $17.20 from $18. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $17.98 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.95, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.9, implying annual growth of -23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates GQG as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -
Morgans initiates coverage on US-based global asset manager, GQG Partners Inc with an Add rating and $2.40 target price.
GQG manages more than US$87bn in funds across four primary equity strategies, and the boutique operations enjoy support from net funds inflows and long-term growth options, say the analyst.
The four strategies are Global Equity, International Equity, Emerging Markets Equity and US Equity. Rajiv Jain is the Executive Chairman, CIO and 68.8% shareholder and enjoys a successful 20-year investment track record, notes Morgans.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.6
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.48
Credit Suisse rates IAG as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse is more confident of an earnings recovery from Insurance Australia Group given commentary on the flow-through of rate increases to margins, but notes the company has set ambitious growth targets.
Insurance Australia Group is targeting 12% customer growth over five years and flat operating expenditure of $2.5bn per annum through to FY23, which the broker describes as challenging but notes growth targets could deliver around 10% earnings upside.
Outperform rating and $5.60 target price are retained.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $1.12
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 42.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi upgrades IGO to Buy from Neutral and increases the target price rises to $12.40 from $10.80 to reflect a stronger earnings profile, Citi believing the company's move into lithium was well timed.
FY22 earnings forecasts fall 9% but Citi says the discounted cash flow valuation is still strong at $11.30 a share; and admires the balance sheet at $888m net cash.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.19 Difference: $2.21
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 35.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of 34.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.82
Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi reduces Iluka's target price to $9.50 from $10. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.82 Difference: $0.68
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.3, implying annual growth of -87.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LYC LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals
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Overnight Price: $9.36
Macquarie rates LYC as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
Macquarie has "initiated coverage" of Lynas Rare Earths, having last covered the stock in 2014, with an Outperform rating and $12.20 target (Neutral and 25c in 2014).
The construction of the company's rare earth carbonate plant in WA is a significant operational de-risking event, the broker suggests, and provides growth optionality. The clock is ticking however, given Malaysian restrictions require completion by July 2023.
But an Outperform rating implies Macquarie is confident, backed up by positive rare earth demand and price momentum.
Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $9.36 Difference: $2.84
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 50.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $47.07
Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi increases Mineral Resources' target price to $57 from $55. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $47.07 Difference: $9.93
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $51.93, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.0, implying annual growth of -73.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 327.3, implying annual growth of 80.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 150.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.07
Citi rates NHC as Buy (1) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi reduces New Hope Corporation's target price to 2.40 from $2.60. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.13
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of 673.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of -46.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.4. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $2.49
Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -
Cit has upgraded its commodities outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi increases Pilbara Minerals' target price to $2.50 from $2.20. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.01
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.33
UBS rates RBL as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -
UBS initiates coverage on the global online market place Redbubble with a Neutral rating and $3.45 target price. The market place provides a platform for independent artists to monetise their work.
The investment thesis relies upon the company's 'scale' target of $1.25bn of revenue at an earnings (EBITDA) margin of 13%-18% over the medium term. The broker estimates the former is achievable by FY28 though improving unit economics will be needed to achieve the latter.
The analyst's forecasts are more conservative than consensus estimates as reinvestment is needed to drive double digit
top-line growth. Furthermore, surging covid-related sales are expected to normalise.
Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.12
If RBL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 63.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -74.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 100.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 123.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.79
Morgans rates S32 as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
As Sierra Gorda in Chile nears completion, Morgans incorporates the recently acquired copper operations into forecasts, triggering a rating upgrade to Add from Hold. Moreover, shares offer an attractive dividend yield and there's potential for new growth.
The Sierra Gorda acquisition is immediately earnings accretive for FY23 notes the analyst, who also cites the company's superior diversification compared to ASX mining peers. The target price rises to $4.10 from $3.77.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.31
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.53 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.24 cents and EPS of 43.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of -20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.85
Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Equal-weight (3) -
While Morgan Stanley has upgraded Suncorp Group's mortgage growth forecast in FY22, given a strong September quarter, net interest margins are cut by -4bps. The Equal-weight rating and $11.90 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line.
The broker cautions about emerging risks from claims inflation in personal lines and supply chain disruption. It's thought these may combine to make achieving cost efficiency targets that much harder.
Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $10.85 Difference: $1.05
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.13, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.4, implying annual growth of -16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $4.06
UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -
The -$615m that Telstra Corp paid for 2x10 MHz of 850/900 MHz spectrum met UBS's expectations. This follows the Australian Communications and Media Authority's (ACMA) auction results.
Neutral rating and $4 target price retained.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.14
UBS rates TPG as Buy (1) -
UBS believes TPG Telecom's decision not to participate in the Australian Communications and Media Authority's (ACMA) spectrum auction demonstrates efficient capital management.
The analyst notes that on a per-subscriber basis, the company's existing low-band holdings are comparable to that of Telstra ((TLS)) and Optus. Buy rating and $7.60 target price retained.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: $1.46
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -76.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 28.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.49
Citi rates WHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Cit has published its annual commodities 2022 Outlook and says that, after five solid quarters of outperformance, it expects the sector to take a breather, setting up a "more diversified sector for 2022 and 2023". Citi expects energy and bulk commodities will underperform the market and that base metals will outperform.
Iron ore is expected to stage a U-shaped price move next year as China eases credit sales and property bounces back. Citi expects iron ore prices to average US$88/t in the June half and $105 in the second half, before retreating in the longer term to $60/t-$80/t as the seaborne market declines.
Citi also forecasts higher lithium prices but spies cost headwinds as energy inflation, higher feedstock prices, wages and logistics costs kick in.
Citi upgrades Whitehaven Coal to Buy from Neutral after the recent strong retreat in the share price. Target price eases to $3.20 from $3.50 to reflect a weaker earnings outlook, the broker forecasting lower thermal coal prices ($110/t from $120/t in CY22; and CY23 unchanged at $75/t).
FY22 earnings forecasts fall -9% but Citi says the discounted cash flow valuation is still strong at $4.40 a share; expects the balance sheet to be net cash; and notes the company is offering a dividend yield of 6.3%.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.71
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 56.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.6, implying annual growth of -45.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.45
UBS rates WOR as Buy (1) -
Following Worley's recent showcasing of its energy transition strategy, UBS decided to draw upon the experience of an independent energy transition consultant.
It was noted digitalisation is a key differentiator and has the potential to re-shape how projects are designed, delivered, operated and monitored. Moreover, because of extra complexity compared to traditional energy projects engineers will continue to play a key role.
Discussions didn't budge UBS from its original assertion that Worley has an attractive valuation with significant leverage to the decarbonisation theme. The Buy rating and $13.20 target are unchanged.
Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $10.45 Difference: $2.75
If WOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.61, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of 207.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.6, implying annual growth of 41.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $22.40
Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie has factored in the merger of BHP Group's ((BHP)) Petroleum division with Woodside Petroleum, noting the merger doubles Woodside's gas production, reduces gearing to 12% and reduces exposure to the lower return LNG market.
It also offers Woodside high-quality growth options in the Gulf of Mexico, Trinidad & Tobago and Bass Strait.
As BHP looks to a lower carbon future, Woodside is better placed to face its own future, Macquarie suggests, although free cash flow will be lacking in the near term.
Neutral retained, target rises to $24.00 form $23.95.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.40 Difference: $1.6
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 183.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.1, implying annual growth of 42.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WPL as No Rating (-1) -
At its investor day, Woodside Petroleum declared an intention to invest -US$5bn in clean energy by 2030, and will leverage LNG experience to expand into hydrogen as the market matures. For the latter, Morgan Stanley notes unresolved questions on cost and uptake.
The analyst sees LNG as a key transition fuel and expects LNG demand to rise at twice the rate of supply through to 2025.
The broker is restricted on providing a rating and a target price estimate.
Current Price is $22.40. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 108.24 cents and EPS of 183.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 119.91 cents and EPS of 290.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.1, implying annual growth of 42.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WPL as Add (1) -
Woodside Petroleum's investor update was largely focused upon the E in ESG. Morgans feels the company is keen to stay ahead of the industry's pace of change. It sees little advantage in being an early mover, but recognises eventual upside if execution is successful.
The company initially discerns opportunities in hydrogen, green ammonia and solar, and plans to invest -US$5bn by 2030, subject to completion of the BHP ((BHP)) Petroleum merger. Morgans retains its Add rating and $29.95 target price.
Target price is $29.95 Current Price is $22.40 Difference: $7.55
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 120.71 cents and EPS of 149.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 106.12 cents and EPS of 212.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.1, implying annual growth of 42.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WPL as No Rating (-1) -
Woodside Petroleum has announced plans to invest -US$5bn in green projects at its investor day, bowing to the global shift in investor sentiment towards renewable energy.
Ord Minnett says this marks a keen shift from Woodside's previous stance, and appears incongruous with the merger of BHP Group's ((BHP)) petroleum business.
But Woodside expects oil and gas demand will underpin the energy transition and will maintain a focus on old energy.
Management reiterated emissions reduction targets, which included the Scarborough assets.
The broker says Woodside plans multiple hydrogen projects and is targeting near-term opportunities that leverage hydrogen for heavy transport and ammonia for power generation.Woodside retains its 50% to 80% dividend policy and reiterates target net gearing ratio of 15% to 35%, notes Ord Minnett.
Ord Minnett is research restricted on Woodside Petroleum and is unable to provide a recommendation or target price.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Current Price is $22.40. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 98.16 cents and EPS of 167.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 129.99 cents and EPS of 262.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.1, implying annual growth of 42.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AKE | Allkem | $8.87 | Citi | 12.00 | 11.00 | 9.09% |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | $18.25 | Citi | 17.20 | 18.00 | -4.44% |
IGO | IGO | $10.38 | Citi | 12.40 | 9.70 | 27.84% |
ILU | Iluka Resources | $8.78 | Citi | 9.50 | 10.00 | -5.00% |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | $9.33 | Macquarie | 12.20 | 0.25 | 4780.00% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | $47.20 | Citi | 57.00 | 55.00 | 3.64% |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $2.51 | Citi | 2.50 | 2.20 | 13.64% |
S32 | South32 | $3.81 | Morgans | 4.10 | 3.77 | 8.75% |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $2.49 | Citi | 3.20 | 3.50 | -8.57% |
WPL | Woodside Petroleum | $22.19 | Macquarie | 24.00 | 23.95 | 0.21% |
Summaries
A2M | a2 Milk Co | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.64 |
AKE | Allkem | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.98 |
APM | APM Human Services International | Initiation of coverage with Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.85 |
COE | Cooper Energy | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.27 |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $17.98 |
GQG | GQG Partners | Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.80 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.48 |
IGO | IGO | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $10.19 |
ILU | Iluka Resources | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $8.82 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.36 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $47.07 |
NHC | New Hope | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.07 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.49 |
RBL | Redbubble | Initiation of coverage with Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.33 |
S32 | South32 | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.79 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.85 |
TLS | Telstra | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.06 |
TPG | TPG Telecom | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $6.14 |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.49 |
WOR | Worley | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $10.45 |
WPL | Woodside Petroleum | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $22.40 |
No Rating - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $22.40 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $22.40 | ||
No Rating - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $22.40 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 13 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 8 |
Thursday 09 December 2021
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