Australian Broker Call
November 13, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 09:10 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CCL - | COCA-COLA AMATIL | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| MTO - | MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| REA - | REA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse | ||
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS | ||
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| SAR - | SARACEN MINERAL | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| XRO - | XERO | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
Macquarie rates AVN as Outperform (1) -
The company has updated on recently acquired assets. While the company has limited capacity to fund acquisitions through debt now, Macquarie believes the positive components of the investment thesis are intact.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $2.40 target.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.06
If AVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -52.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CAJ as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett initiates coverage on the diagnostic imaging company, which has a growing network of clinics across metropolitan and regional Victoria.
A comprehensive restructure and recapitalisation has already been undertaken with the benefits now being realised as growth to the industry returns. Hence, Ord Minnett expects growth in earnings per share of 23.1% in FY18 followed by 33.6% in FY19.
Accumulate recommendation and $0.28 target.
Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.02
If CAJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of 233.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of 40.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CCL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett reviews the business operations prior to the upcoming investor tour to Indonesia. The broker notes the performance of the fast-moving consumer goods segment has slowed despite the fact Indonesia is a developing market with strong growth potential.
The broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten because of the share price performance and valuation support. Target is raised to $8.25 from $8.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $8.12 Difference: $0.13
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.74, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 69.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CYB as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse incorporates the benefits accruing to the bank from the Royal Bank of Scotland's state aid obligations. Earnings are upgraded by 1-8%.
The broker envisages scope for some market share gains in SME segments arising from the operation of these obligations.
Outperform. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.25.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.49
If CYB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.34 cents and EPS of 35.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.13 cents and EPS of 42.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.6, implying annual growth of 18.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates DLX as Hold (3) -
Morgans expects the company to deliver solid earnings growth when it reports on November 15. The broker forecasts 9% growth to FY17 operating earnings.
While attracted to the company's strong brands and relatively defensive and stable earnings stream, Morgans maintains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $7.25 from $6.88.
Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett believes sentiment towards the company is at a low point based on concerns that the 58% iron index discount will never come down from its current level of 30%. There is also uncertainty around the strategic outlook given the change in the CEO.
Ord Minnett believes a significant part of the spot discount is cyclical and, given a strong operating performance, maintains an Accumulate rating. Target is reduced to $6.35 from $6.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $1.5
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.52 cents and EPS of 58.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.69 cents and EPS of 66.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.5, implying annual growth of -8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IDX as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett believes the company is set apart from key competitors by its sources of revenue, with only 50% of this reliant on Medicare funding.
With industry growth returning and acquisition opportunities likely in FY18, Ord Minnett is optimistic. The broker initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $1.89 target.
Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.14
If IDX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 7.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -
The investor briefing highlighted stronger market conditions, which Citi observes is driven by reduced inventory in the system and a stable demand environment.
The broker notes the current priorities include the re-start of Jacinth-Ambrosia and operations optimisation at Sierra Rutile.
Neutral rating and $10 target retained.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $0.45
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 40.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 166.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -
The company has held an investor briefing to reinforce market fundamentals and provide an update on its projects.
The company remains confident that tightness in the market will increase and, in the short term, also envisages zircon substitutes having limited application.
The company plans a $40m upgrade to the Jacinth-Ambrosia plant, to increase throughput by around 30%, which should help offset grade decline.
Buy retained. Target is $11.00.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $1.45
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.0, implying annual growth of 166.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -
Citi observes the shares have recovered strongly, driven by a rebound in ammonia and fertilizer prices. The broker suggests current spot prices imply upside to FY18 consensus estimates.
Capital management initiatives are considered possible in the next six to 12 months. Citi maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $4.06 from $4.09.
Target price is $4.06 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 131.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 21.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates JHG as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse was disappointed with the September quarter result, although believes the outlook is more positive.
The miss to expectations did include some one-offs but a miss on costs reflects a higher cost profile going forward, and the broker questions whether the synergy benefits are flowing to shareholders.
Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $45.50 from $44.00.
Target price is $45.50 Current Price is $48.82 Difference: minus $3.32 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $51.47, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 125.79 cents and EPS of 314.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 291.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 175.58 cents and EPS of 344.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 342.0, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes assets under management in the September quarter were supported by a shift to net inflows. The final synergy target for the integration has been upgraded by $15m to $125m.
Integration appears to be tracking ahead of expectations. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $51.12 from $50.50.
Target price is $51.12 Current Price is $48.82 Difference: $2.3
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $51.47, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 180.56 cents and EPS of 326.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 291.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 180.82 cents and EPS of 334.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 342.0, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley observes September quarter results featured synergy upgrades and positive flows, despite only limited tailwinds from cross selling into new channels.
Overweight retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is raised to $58.50 from $57.00.
Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $48.82 Difference: $9.68
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $51.47, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 157.23 cents and EPS of 313.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 291.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 184.75 cents and EPS of 349.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 342.0, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MTO as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
The company recently acquired Cassons, an Australian importer and distributor of motorcycle apparel and accessories. Morgan Stanley believes the deal stacks up well by virtue of the accretion to earnings alone.
The broker likes the fact that acquisition diversifies earnings away from motorcycle sales and provides the ability to gain wholesale margin via a vertical integration.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add, as the stock has been duly rewarded by the market after this strongly accretive deal. Target is raised to $5.41 from $4.37.
Target price is $5.41 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0.31
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NWS as Neutral (3) -
First quarter results were helped by a weak comparables, Credit Suisse asserts. Growth was driven by ongoing strength in digital real estate.
The broker continues to believe the stock will trade at a discount to valuation under its current structure.
Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $19.00 from $18.00.
Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $20.16 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.91, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 36.69 cents and EPS of 52.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 41.93 cents and EPS of 60.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of 14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NWS as Buy (1) -
First quarter results were ahead of forecasts. Deutsche Bank observes the news and information services division revealed an uplift in margin, driven by cost reductions and modest revenue growth.
The broker suspects the cost benefit will be weighted to the first quarter and makes only modest changes to full year estimates. Target is raised to $23.85 from $23.50 and a Buy rating is retained.
Target price is $23.85 Current Price is $20.16 Difference: $3.69
If NWS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.91, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.45 cents and EPS of 68.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of 14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes the first quarter result was solid and ahead of expectations. The Foxtel/Fox Sports merger is on track and expected to be completed in the first half.
The broker believes the stock continues to offer some value based on the ongoing share price appreciation at REA Group ((REA)).
Outperform retained. Target is $20.20.
Target price is $20.20 Current Price is $20.16 Difference: $0.04
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.91, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.21 cents and EPS of 60.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.21 cents and EPS of 71.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of 14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Equal-weight (3) -
First quarter numbers were ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations. The broker observes print earnings have stabilised.
The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and Attractive industry view. Target is US$15.
Current Price is $20.16. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $20.91, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 43.24 cents and EPS of 66.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.17 cents and EPS of 72.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of 14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates OZL as Buy (1) -
Citi observes copper remains "airborne" in the December quarter and upgrades estimates along with including a lower Australian dollar. Forecasts for domestic miner earnings are lifted for FY17-21.
Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $9.80 from $9.20.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $1.17
If OZL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.50, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 68.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 58.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 53.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of -37.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Earnings momentum has accelerated for REA Group and this has -predictably- triggered a rally in the share price, but Citi analysts nevertheless believe it has been too hard, too soon.
While maintaining their $80 price target (the highest in the FNArena universe), the rating has been pulled back to Neutral from Buy.
The analysts point out developer revenues grew modestly in 1Q as weaker market conditions were offset by the need for developers to advertise for longer periods to sell their projects. The same dynamic is anticipated for Residential revenues ahead.
Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $76.41 Difference: $3.59
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $71.32, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 102.80 cents and EPS of 228.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.4, implying annual growth of 505.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 291.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.4, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
First quarter revenue growth was 21% and Credit Suisse estimates underlying growth was around 18% after stripping out the two months from the new financial services division.
The broker now includes a higher valuation for the financial services opportunity and a slightly higher valuation for Move. Target is raised to $75 from $72. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $76.41 Difference: minus $1.41 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $71.32, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.4, implying annual growth of 505.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 269.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.4, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates REA as Hold (3) -
First quarter numbers were strong, with revenue up 21% and operating earnings up 24%. Results were in line with Deutsche Bank's forecasts and Australian residential business was the main growth driver.
The broker notes, given weaker underlying conditions, growth in developer and media was more subdued. Forecasts are unchanged. Target rises to $66.15 from $64.20 because of the rolling forward of valuation. Hold retained.
Target price is $66.15 Current Price is $76.41 Difference: minus $10.26 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $71.32, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 210.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.4, implying annual growth of 505.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 250.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.4, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley found first quarter results encouraging, with revenue and operating earnings above estimates. No explicit guidance was provided.
The broker notes that soft trends in developer and media are expected to continue.
Overweight and $72 target retained. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $76.41 Difference: minus $4.41 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $71.32, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.4, implying annual growth of 505.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 269.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.4, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -
First quarter results were better than Morgans expected. The broker upgrades estimates by 4.6% and 5.9% for FY18 and FY19 respectively.
Morgans expects the company should be able to deliver several more years of double-digit earnings growth and show very high levels of free cash generation.
Hold retained. Target is raised to $74.89 from $68.75.
Target price is $74.89 Current Price is $76.41 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $71.32, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.4, implying annual growth of 505.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 258.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.4, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates REA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS suggests the first quarter may be a high water mark for FY18, helped by a strong rebound in Sydney and Melbourne residential listings volumes. Cost growth was below expectations.
The results beat estimates purely because of the timing of operating expenditure and a softer second-fourth quarter revenue outlook is considered likely.
UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral on valuation alone and raises the target to $68 from $64.
Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $76.41 Difference: minus $8.41 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $71.32, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 213.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.4, implying annual growth of 505.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 125.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.4, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RIO as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett reviews its forecasts for the iron ore sector. The broker notes global growth is at its strongest level in seven years and Chinese data, although off the highs, remains robust.
Despite being positive the broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Accumulate following Rio Tinto's 25% re-rating in the year to date. The target is $75 and unchanged.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $73.75 Difference: $1.25
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $75.69, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 362.95 cents and EPS of 600.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 610.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 336.74 cents and EPS of 559.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 533.1, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 308.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SAR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi suggests the price appreciation has more than factored in the strength of the past year and downgrades to Sell from Neutral based on valuation.
The broker expects limited production growth until mid 2019 and no sustained material improvement in costs. Target is raised to $1.38 from $1.35.
Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SUN as Hold (3) -
Morgans estimates that the sale of any Australian life insurance unit would lead to a capital benefit between $580m and $1.2bn under various scenarios.
If the capital were used for buybacks the broker estimates minimal ongoing dilution to earnings per share post any sale. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $14.71 from $14.31.
Target price is $14.71 Current Price is $13.96 Difference: $0.75
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.98, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.6, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.60 cents and EPS of 103.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.9, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates XRO as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Highlights from the first half included strong subscriber growth in Australia and continued ramp up in the UK. Credit Suisse is surprised that the company will consolidate its listing to the ASX. NZX trading will cease at the end of January.
While adopting more optimistic forecast assumptions, Credit Suisse is still concerned the valuation is well shy of the current price and suspects the market is ascribing significant value to long-dated growth.
Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target rises to NZ$29.80 from NZ$23.50.
Current Price is $27.65. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 249.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates XRO as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
In the wake of the first half result UBS downgrades revenue forecasts by -5-10%, acknowledging it was too bullish regarding cloud adoption in the North American market.
The broker also notes the stock has appreciated by around 90% since the beginning of the year and is now more than 25% above its estimates of fair value.
Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target is lowered to NZ$26.50 from NZ$27.00.
Current Price is $27.65. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 249.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AVN | AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.34 |
| CAJ | CAPITOL HEALTH | Initiation of coverage with Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.26 |
| CCL | COCA-COLA AMATIL | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.12 |
| CYB | CYBG | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.51 |
| DLX | DULUX GROUP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.45 |
| FMG | FORTESCUE | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.85 |
| IDX | INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS | Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.75 |
| ILU | ILUKA RESOURCES | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.55 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $9.55 | ||
| IPL | INCITEC PIVOT | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.74 |
| JHG | JANUS HENDERSON GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $48.82 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $48.82 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $48.82 | ||
| MTO | MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.10 |
| NWS | NEWS CORP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $20.16 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $20.16 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $20.16 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $20.16 | ||
| OZL | OZ MINERALS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.63 |
| REA | REA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $76.41 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $76.41 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $76.41 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $76.41 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $76.41 | ||
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $76.41 | ||
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $73.75 |
| SAR | SARACEN MINERAL | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.41 |
| SUN | SUNCORP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $13.96 |
| XRO | XERO | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $27.65 |
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $27.65 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 10 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 14 |
| 5. Sell | 4 |
Tuesday 14 November 2017
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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