Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AAD as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has cut its estimates for the theme parks division following the tragic incident at Dreamworld. Notwithstanding the reduction in the earnings base, the company's gearing post its divestments appears capable of funding the Main Event business roll-out.

The broker acknowledges a bull case can be made, given the aggressive roll-out plans which provide a very sizable profit opportunity. Yet, conservatism is retained in its forecasts and the outlook for the theme parks is envisaged increasing the risk.

At a group level the broker downgrades earnings per share forecasts for FY17 and FY18 by 40% and 28% respectively. Hold rating retained and target cut to $1.90 from $2.70.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ACX as Overweight (1) -

Aconex' CFO has announced his departure. This is not good news in a period of volatility for the stock, the broker admits, but it's a retirement and the rest of the longstanding executive team remains in place.

Questions may again be raised around cash conversion and accounting but the broker is happy to retain Overweight and a $9.30 target on longer term earnings growth. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $4.46
If ACX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting upside of 69.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

The company has outlined its growth strategy, with more than $700m in initiatives under way. UBS notes the intention to remain nimble and avoid over-investment in specific areas.

FY17 guidance is unchanged. AGL is considering importing LNG into eastern Australia to ensure security of supply post 2020. UBS considers this an expensive option but one that should help in negotiations with Victorian gas sellers.

The broker believes the company's low-cost generation portfolio should receive an earnings boost in FY18/19 as higher electricity prices are passed on to customers.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $19.80 from $19.50.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: $0.47
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.27, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie upgrades near-term price forecasts for alumina, although remains bearish over the medium term. The broker forecasts Chinese market deficits for alumina in 2017 and 2018, and the gap to be filled by international market.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform on the back of increased estimates. Target is raised to $1.50 from $1.00.

On the broker's estimates the stock offers an attractive dividend yield but this collapses to around 1% after 2018, as Macquarie believes new refinery capacity will displace merchant alumina in the seaborne market.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: minus $0.175 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.46, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has the impression, after the company hosted its Australian steel products briefing, that investment in branding and marketing could deliver above-system growth for its building products in the near term.

In addition, automation may deliver further cost savings beyond the $280m that has been guided to for FY17. The broker maintains a Hold rating and $7.50 target.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

After a challenging reporting season, in which the stock underperformed the sector, UBS anticipates that the presence of Shopping Centres of Australasia ((SCP)) provides some downside protection.

Combined with the current valuation after a sector wide pull-back, the broker can no longer justify a Sell rating and upgrades to Neutral. Target is reduced to $4.29 from $4.37.

Target price is $4.29 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.04
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Underweight (5) -

Data presented at the American Heart Association conference showed CSL's new drug for heart patients met the primary point of safety but not the secondary point of efficacy in its phase 2 trial. Given the trial featured too few patients to satisfy statistical significance, the broker expects CSL will progress to phase 3.

This will nevertheless be costly, time consuming and high risk. The broker retains Underweight and a $101 target. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $101.45 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $109.49, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HGG as Outperform (1) -

Despite some negative sentiment surrounding the merger with Janus and a 15% fall in the share price, Credit Suisse believes the stock offers significant value and a large margin of safety, especially when compared with peers.

The broker continues to support the strategic motivation behind the merger, envisaging it as part of the company's multi-year global expansion strategy.

Nevertheless, the broker acknowledges uncertainty has also increased since the announcement of the deal which could weigh on the share price in the short term, with full value being realised only when  the operating environment begins to improve or stabilise.

Outperform rating maintained.  Target rises to $4.70 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.71
If HGG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Despite a solid first quarter update, over the last three weeks the share price has declined by 15%, which Deutsche Bank attributes to concerns over the company's accounting practices.

The broker concedes the franchise accounting is opaque but remains confident that the accrual P&L is an accurate reflection of the underlying performance, given the business has a strong track record.

Buy rating retained. Target is $6.00.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $1.5
If HVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Karoon is in negotiations with Petrobras to acquire the Bauna and Tartaruga Verde oil fields in Brazil. The acquisitions have the potential to transform the company overnight, the broker suggests.

However Karoon would not be able to afford both by itself and the broker assumes some form of partial acquisition. Any equity raising requirement would depend on the final deal. But if the deal falls through, Karoon shares will fall significantly, the broker warns. On a lack of any certainty, the broker makes no changes.

Equal-weight and $1.67 target retained. Sector view In-Line.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has downgraded Mirvac to Underweight. The market has become complacent against a backdrop of fading residential volumes and margin contraction ahead, the broker suggests, and 70% of FY17 apartment revenue is skewed to the second half.

The office market is the current positive in the sector but Mirvac's exposure to office is minimal, Morgan Stanley notes. Target falls to $2.00 from $2.20. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker prefers Stockland in the space.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.025
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Outperform (1) -

September quarter claims growth of 5% for the industry was below the eight-year average. Macquarie observes slower growth in hospital visits and shorter stays. Benefits growth per person per year continues to moderate.

To arrest the declining trend in policies, Macquarie believes funds must attract younger members, which is difficult and will at some stage require government policy to entice young people into private health insurance.

FY17 estimates are upgraded by 2%. Outperform retained. Target is $2.76.

Target price is $2.76 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.24
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MYR as Buy (1) -

Myer is scheduled to report its quarterly sales update on Friday, 18 November 2016. Citi analysts have penciled in 1Q17 sales of $704m, a decline of -1.5% on the prior year. Like-for-like sales are expected to decline by -0.4%.

The analysts point out David Jones, now under South African ownership, already reported slower growth. It's not going well with sales in the clothes department, point out the analysts. They see risks as to the downside, but retain the Buy rating.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.33
If MYR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NEC as Buy (1) -

The company's trading update has confirmed a subdued TV market, with the business now expecting FY17 metro TV advertising revenue to be down in the low single digits.

Given the offsetting numbers, ie reduced costs, Deutsche Bank's figures are largely unchanged. The company has plans for a further $50m in cost reductions by FY19 and, while encouraged by the plans, the broker is yet to factor this into forecasts as it is contingent on a number of variables.

A Buy rating is maintained and target reduced to $1.35 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.405
If NEC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Neutral (3) -

The company has guided to the metro TV market being down 4% in the first quarter. The market is now expected to be down by low single digits in FY17 whereas Nine Entertainment was previously guiding for a flat to marginally lower market.

UBS believes this update, coupled with Seven West Media's ((SWM)) AGM commentary, paints a muted outlook for FY17 metro TV growth. The broker reduces FY17 assumptions by 3%.

A Neutral rating and 90c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Outperform (1) -

September quarter claims growth of 5% for the industry was below the eight-year average. Macquarie observes slower growth in hospital visits and shorter stays. Benefits growth per person per year continues to moderate.

To arrest the declining trend in policies, Macquarie believes funds must attract younger members, which is difficult and will at some stage require government policy to entice young people into private health insurance.

FY17 estimates are upgraded by 2%. Outperform rating retained with $5.20 target.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.4
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates OFX as Buy (1) -

First half results were weak, with EBITDA 13% below Deutsche Bank's forecasts. The company has also guided to EBITDA contracting in FY17.

Despite the poor earnings momentum, Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating based on very weak sentiment, valuation support, easier comparables in the second half and the cyclical headwinds in the first half from the depreciation of the GBP.

Forecasts for FY17 and FY18 EBITDA are reduced by 11% and 14% respectively. Target is reduced to $1.70 from $2.20.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.355
If OFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OFX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

First half underlying profit was down 22%. Macquarie does not believe the business model is broken but that there is clearly lots of work to do to get it back on track.

The current valuation, post the sell-off, already appears to be discounting the prospect of achieving anything like revised FY17 guidance, in the brokers opinion, which would then provide an improved trajectory in the second half into FY18.

Macquarie believes the company's active and lapsed client base, technology, licences and banking relationships should appeal to trade and financial buyers well above current levels. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Targets falls to $1.80 from $2.30.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.455
If OFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates OZL as Sell (5) -

The updates on both Carrapateena and Prominent Hill are positive, yet Deutsche Bank considers the company is not out of the woods at this stage.

The lingering concern about Carrapateena is the capital cost, while Prominent Hill's extensions do not alleviate the imminent declines in earnings once the open pit is depleted in 24 months.

Sell rating retained. Target is raised to $5.80 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: minus $2.07 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Hold (3) -

After the company updated its reserves and resources estimates for Prominent Hill, Ord Minnett observes that underground operations have been extended to 2028 yet open pit operations remain scheduled to finish in 2018.

The broker updates cost and development estimates. Despite a slightly higher valuation, Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating.Target is raised to $7.80 from  $7.50.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The company has de-risked previously held views on Carrapateena and provided a resource update for Prominent Hill, which extends the underground mine life to 2028.

UBS expects interest in the company to build now it has a business that is supported by two long-life Australian domiciled copper assets that, together, are expected to deliver average production of around 100,000tpa over the next 10 or more years.

This represents a marked turnaround from a year ago, and the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $8.60 from $6.41.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $0.73
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RHL as Hold (3) -

Results were in line with recently downgraded guidance. Morgans  believes FY16 will be a base for earnings and growth will resume in FY17 from internal business improvements, new acquisitions and a better season.

As a result, the broker has upgraded forecasts. The broker retains a clear preference for Elders ((ELD)) and believes the easy wins following a weak competitive environment are now over for Ruralco.

A Hold rating is retained and the target is raised to $3.10 from $2.85.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If RHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Volatility in the residential market is now subsiding as conditions pass the peak, the broker suggests. Of more concern for Stockland is the retail portfolio, being the largest contributor to earnings, which has seen the lowest net income growth in five years.

With resi and retirement well positioned, the broker believes it's time for Stockland to revisit its five year plan. Forecast earnings have been trimmed and the broker's target falls to $4.60 from $4.95, Overweight retained. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker prefers Stockland to Mirvac.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.5
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Underweight (5) -

Syrah has announced additional reserves which will extend the mine life of Balama. Given mine life is already estimated at 40 years, tail additions have negligible impact on valuation, the broker notes.

Underweight and $3.75 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $0.58
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 98.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers its estimates for earnings per share in FY18 and FY19 on the back of weak FY17 lottery revenue and rising interest rates.

Previously,  the broker assumed the company could secure funding in the low 5% bracket but now the cost of debt may have risen by 50-60 basis points, adding about $15m in interest expense in FY18.

Outperform rating retained. Target is lowered to $5.35 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.82
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources