Australian Broker Call

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April 12, 2024

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AVH - Avita Medical Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
JHX - James Hardie Industries Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
UNI - Universal Store Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
ADT  ADRIATIC METALS PLC

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.11

Morgans rates ADT as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Adriatic Metals is a base and precious metals producer via its Vares (silver/lead/zinc) project in Bosnia, which provides long-life cash flows at strong margins, notes Morgans. Coverage is initiated with an Add rating and $5.80 target price.

The company is currently ramping-up production at Vares, which is protected from potential teething issues, according to the broker, by supportive off-takers, debt and equity investors.

This support derives from compelling returns (once Vares is optimised), suggests the analyst, including greater than 60% earnings (EBITDA) margins, rapid payback and compelling cash generation.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $1.69
If ADT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 411.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 747.27.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AFG  AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $1.61

Macquarie rates AFG as Neutral (3) -

Australian Finance Group's March Q total lodgement activity was up 4.7%, Macquarie notes, including AFG Home Loan activity up 38.3%, cycling -54.1% year on year.

AFG Home Loan activity growth was driven by increased share, the broker finds. AFG products represented 7.0% of all flow in the quarter versus 5.3% a year ago.

AFG Home Loan product share and margin stabilisation support the outlook for earnings, Macquarie suggests. Neutral and $1.47 target retained.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.11.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE  EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $13.46

Citi rates APE as Neutral (3) -

New car deliveries not only continue to set records, but industry feedback suggests order write remains relatively solid. As per Citi, 304,000 new cars were sold over the first quarter, up 13% year-on-year. 

The broker does, however, remain cautious on the industry, as some manufacturers show early signs of pushing volumes including discounting, although this appears brand dependent. 

Autosports Group remains the broker's top industry pick. For Eagers Automotive, the Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $13.85 from $13.90.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $13.46 Difference: $0.39
If APE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 114.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.2, implying annual growth of 0.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 113.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.9, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG  AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $2.57

Citi rates ASG as Buy (1) -

New car deliveries not only continue to set records, but industry feedback suggests order write remains relatively solid. As per Citi, 304,000 new cars were sold over the first quarter, up 13% year-on-year. 

The broker does, however, remain cautious on the industry, as some manufacturers show early signs of pushing volumes including discounting, although this appears brand dependent. 

Autosports Group remains the broker's top industry pick. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.05 from $3.15

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.48
If ASG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -13.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH  AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $3.98

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

While management at Avita Medical has downgraded 1Q commercial revenue guidance by -27% to US$11m, Ord Minnett maintains its $5.40 target as the time value of money and a strong US dollar provide offsets.

The downgrade was due to the value analysis committee taking longer-than-anticipated and slowing the uptake of Recell for the recent label expansion for full-thickness skin defects, explains the broker.

New guidance implies 1Q commercial revenue will decline by -21% compared to Q4 2023.  The analyst lowers the 2024 revenue forecast by -4% to US$79m on the expectation of revenue growth later in 2024.

The broker upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold due to the recent share price decline.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $1.42
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 47.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.36.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.34.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ  BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $5.92

Morgans rates BOQ as Reduce (5) -

Bank of Queensland's 1H results are due on April 17 and Morgans believes both cash earnings and the interim dividend will fall materially.

The broker forecasts a -19% sequential decline in cash earnings to $158m, which is -3% below the consensus expectation. The dividend is expected to decline by -29% to 15cps (62% payout ratio), which is -14% shy of consensus.

The analyst's target rises to $5.05 from $5.02 on minimal changes to forecasts. Reduce.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 139.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $280.40

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS analysts have returned from site tours organised by CSL, including facilities in Broadmeadows, Victoria. No changes made to either the Buy rating, the $330 price target, or existing forecasts.

Among the observations shared is the broker anticipates approval and launch of new pipeline drug garadacimab in 2024, estimating it can add an incremental US$700m to the top line over a decade.

Also, CSL is optimistic of Seqirus capturing market share from GSK plc, as the latter is not longer innovating in flu. Early R&D initiatives in respiratory pathogens outside flu and covid remain underway with a confirmed interest in RSV if a combination mRNA vaccine can be created, the analysts report.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $280.40 Difference: $49.6
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $316.73, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 395.50 cents and EPS of 956.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 943.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 410.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 435.05 cents and EPS of 1133.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1188.2, implying annual growth of 26.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 523.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EQT  EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $28.76

Ord Minnett rates EQT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes shares in EQT Holdings remain significantly undervalued, following a better-than-expected 3Q update driving 3-5% forecast upgrades by the analysts over the next three years.

Funds under management, administration and supervision (FUMAS) rose by 6.1% with the largest gains experienced in Superannuation.

In Superannuation, management is targeting $150bn of funds under supervision (FUS) over an unspecified time period, more than double the $64.3bn reported at March 2024, notes the broker.

The target rises to $37 from $36. Buy.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $28.76 Difference: $8.24
If EQT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 110.50 cents and EPS of 157.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.21.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 190.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPR  FLEETPARTNERS GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $3.59

Citi rates FPR as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the March quarter will prove a strong one for novated and fleet leasing companies amid increasing penetration of electric vehicles, with the broker anticipating record settlement levels.  

With more electric vehicle models reaching the market, penetration reached 11.3% in the first quarter. Citi sees upside to novated leasing electric vehicle volumes heading into FY25, and as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) is implemented.

Smartgroup Corp is the broker's industry pick, with Citi seeing stronger growth in novated leasing. For FleetPartners Group, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.20 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.61
If FPR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 29.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 31.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $58.17

Macquarie rates JHX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie had seen US interest rate reduction as a key catalyst for James Hardie Industries' R&R market's second half recovery. Macquarie's Macro Strategy team now expects the first -25bp Fed cut in December (with a hawkish tilt), versus July, and -50bps of cuts in 2025.

While recent market feedback suggests higher-end remodel projects were perhaps firmer than feared, the broker thinks a shift in the interest rate narrative will hold back a broader recovery.

Given the risk of multiple compression during current macro uncertainty, Macquarie cuts its target to $62.40 from $68.20. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $62.40 Current Price is $58.17 Difference: $4.23
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.58, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 247.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 272.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.4, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD  MADER GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $6.21

Bell Potter rates MAD as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter's investment thesis for Mader Group remains intact after a review by the broker of key industry and company data. The company provides specialised contract labour for maintenance of heavy mobile equipment in the resources and civil industries.

Acceleration in iron ore production growth (as forecast by the Australian Government) should generate further expansion in Heavy Mobile Equipment fleets, note the analysts. This is expected to enhance repair and maintenance demand and component consumption.

The broker highlights metal ore capital expenditures are at record levels, and notes Mader has the ability to grow revenue in a declining and low iron ore price environment.

The Buy rating and $7.60 target are retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $1.39
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.52.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 34.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMS  MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $19.38

Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the March quarter will prove a strong one for novated and fleet leasing companies amid increasing penetration of electric vehicles, with the broker anticipating record settlement levels.  

With more electric vehicle models reaching the market, penetration reached 11.3% in the first quarter. Citi sees upside to novated leasing electric vehicle volumes heading into FY25, and as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) is implemented.

Smartgroup Corp is the broker's industry pick, with Citi seeing stronger growth in novated leasing. For McMillan Shakespeare, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $22.50 from $21.80.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $19.38 Difference: $3.12
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.05, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 161.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.7, implying annual growth of 236.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 139.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 151.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 132.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $15.36

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources has pre-released March quarter results, revealing production of 401,000 ounces for the period. 

Citi, which has anticipated a result of 404,000 ounces, adjusts its forecasts accordingly.

The company has also lifted full year cost guidance to $1,810-1,860 per ounce, and the broker shifts its own cost forecast to $1,820 per ounce pending the full quarterly release.

The Neutral rating and target price of $14.50 are retained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of 90.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resource's preliminary March Q metrics show gold sales -3% below Macquarie's estimate while cost guidance was lifted 2%. Implied free cash flow was also softer than expected despite a dividend payment.

FY24 sales guidance is unchanged and the June Q has begun with strong momentum, according to management, thanks to access to the higher-grades of Golden Pike North at KCGM, access to first ore at Yandal, and better grades at Pogo.

Rain impacts are to blame for increased costs. Outperform and $17 target retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: $1.64
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.50 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.70 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of 90.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL  NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $19.26

Macquarie rates NWL as Underperform (5) -

Netwealth Group's net inflows of $2.6bn or 14%pa of opening funds under management were slightly below Macquarie's recently increased expectations. Market movements (+5.1%) were again a tailwind.

The number of member accounts was up 3.9% quarter on quarter, at the top end of the historical 2-4% range.

Recent momentum and seasonality have given Netwealth the confidence to guide to "very strong" flows in the June Q. No institutional flows were called out, so these are likely to be at reasonable revenue margins, Macquarie suggests.

Target rises to $16.75 from $15.30, Underperform retained.

Target price is $16.75 Current Price is $19.26 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.46, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 26.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 45.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 25.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees upside risk to 4Q net inflows for Netwealth Group based on positive commentary by management when releasing consensus-beating 3Q net inflows and market movements.

Funds under management (FUA) of $84.8bn for the 3Q beat the broker's forecast by 6% and the consensus estimate of $80.1bn. The analysts highlight $2.7bn of 4Q net inflows are needed (same as achieved in Q3) to meet FY24 guidance for $10.1bn.

Management is expecting "June quarter FUA inflows to be very strong with several new large transitions commencing, in addition to higher seasonal flows and increased market activity."

The broker retains an Overweight rating with a $17.50 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $19.26 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.46, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 26.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.10 cents and EPS of 41.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 25.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NWL as Buy (1) -

A strong third quarter from Netwealth Group, says UBS, with the company reporting better than forecast funds and flows for the period. Outlook commentary from management also suggests the company expects strong flows to year's end.

The broker attributed a stronger flow performance to both improving industry conditions and management action taken to enhance product range. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $22.50 from $21.30.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $19.26 Difference: $3.24
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.46, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 26.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 25.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT  NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $16.71

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NextDC has announced it will undertake a $1,321m capital raising, with proceeds, alongside existing liquidity of $2.1bn, slated to fund the accelerated development and fitout in the company's core Sydney and Melbourne markets. 

As per UBS, the update reaffirms that demand not only remains strong, but is accelerating. The company currently holds a forward order book equating to 68.8 megawatts, expected to convert to billings between FY25 and FY29.

The funding is expected to fund Sydney centres 3, 4 and 5, as well as Melbourne 2.

The Buy rating and target price of $20.10 are retained.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $16.71 Difference: $3.39
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 167.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 98.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $9.54

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy's Octopus business has disrupted the UK market and is now the leading retailer, Macquarie notes, with profitability quickly following.

Kraken dominates in the UK, has good positions in Japan and Australia and has had a start in Europe. To achieve 100m accounts, it needs more wins in Europe and a win in US, the broker suggests.

Origin is income-producing through Energy Markets and APLNG, returning to its utility roots. The company can afford a materially higher payout ratio, Macquarie believes, and still support the energy transition.

Target rises to $9.97 from $9.29, Outerform retained.

Target price is $9.97 Current Price is $9.54 Difference: $0.43
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 78.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.3, implying annual growth of 16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 96.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI  ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $17.82

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Orica’s mid-February trading update noted momentum from the first two months of FY24 (Sep year-end) continued into early 2024, Macquarie notes, and the first half outlook had improved slightly since the FY23 results.

Orica is seeing strength across all geographies, underpinned by focus on commercial discipline (pricing power) and tech adoption.

Burrup is the main near-term re-contracting opportunity in ammonium nitrate, the broker suggests, with good price/mix uplift potential beyond this.

The broker states the key focus is on integrating and delivering on recent acquisitions, supported by a solid underlying market backdrop.

Target rises to $19.05 from $18.82, Outperform retained.

Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $17.82 Difference: $1.23
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.30 cents and EPS of 87.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.0, implying annual growth of 42.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.60 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.5, implying annual growth of 18.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEN  PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium

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Overnight Price: $0.11

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy (1) -

Peninsula Energy's capex estimate has increased by 40%, or US$20m, for the Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming, US.

While Shaw and Partners is surprised by such a large increase in a relatively short period of time, the overall funding requirement to reach free cash flow positive has only increased by US$5m due to the stronger uranium price.

The analyst explains some of the increase is related to expediting delivery of material and equipment to maintain the first production schedule of December this year, which remains unchanged.

The broker's Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to 31c from 34c due to the higher capex estimate.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.2
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 110.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR  PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $2.24

Citi rates PWR as Neutral (3) -

New car deliveries not only continue to set records, but industry feedback suggest order write remains relatively solid. As per Citi, 304,000 new cars were sold over the first quarter, up 13% year-on-year. 

The broker does, however, remain cautious on the industry, as some manufacturers show early signs of pushing volumes including discounting, although this appears brand dependent. 

Autosports Group remains the broker's top industry pick. For Peter Warren Automotive, the Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.40 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.16
If PWR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.90, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of -5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $10.05

Citi rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the March quarter will prove a strong one for novated and fleet leasing companies amid increasing penetration of electric vehicles, with the broker anticipating record settlement levels.  

With more electric vehicle models reaching the market, penetration reached 11.3% in the first quarter. Citi sees upside to novated leasing electric vehicle volumes heading into FY25, and as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) is implemented.

Smartgroup Corp is the broker's industry pick, with Citi seeing stronger growth in novated leasing. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.55 from $11.00.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: $1.5
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.4, implying annual growth of 14.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 66.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of 10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.84

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Citi has mailed out a quick update to its clientele this morning re-affirming the company's Pikka and exploration acreage is unaffected by US president Biden's proposed Alaskan drilling restrictions.

Neutral. Target is $7.75.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.84 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.2, implying annual growth of 22.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STP  STEP ONE CLOTHING LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $1.72

Morgans rates STP as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its target for Step One Clothing to $2.15 from $1.65 after updating peer company multiples. No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts.

The broker highlights sales momentum and operating margins have improved materially in recent periods and retains an Add rating.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.43
If STP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.15.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXL  SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $0.94

Morgan Stanley rates SXL as Underweight (5) -

While Morgan Stanley believes further media industry consolidation makes sense, the bid for Southern Cross Media by ARN Media ((A1N)) is complex (and hard to assess) so as not to breach current media ownership laws.

Because the offer is predominantly in shares (25% cash, 75% shares), the broker points out Southern Cross Media shareholders will still end up owning a FM radio company, in a time of structural challenges.

It would make strategic and financial sense, however, if ARN closes its iHeart app and shifts all the talent (and all content/cross promotion of both radio groups) into LiSTNR (owned by Southern Cross Media). This would create a single audio streaming platform.

The Underweight rating is maintained at the target increased to 75c from 68c. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.96, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of -34.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 47.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX  TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $12.62

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a number of upcoming catalysts for shares in Telix Pharmaceuticals including the recent filing of the investigational new drug (IND) application for TLX591.

Also, management is pursuing a Nasdaq listing in the US to enable better access to the deep pool of specialist investors focused on biotechnology and radiopharmaceuticals. The company believes the listing will unlock value within the therapeutic pipeline.

Telix has also recently held a general meeting of shareholders to refresh its 15% placement capacity. The broker points to further potential acquisitions, particularly around AI assets for diagnostics.

The Buy rating and $14.50 target are retained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.62 Difference: $1.88
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.11.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.11.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI  UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $5.75

Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its target for Universal Store to $6.50 from $5.65 after updating peer company multiples. No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts.

The broker highlights the women’s banner Perfect Stranger is performing well, justifying an acceleration in the retailer's network expansion.

While the core youth customers of Universal Store remain subdued, they continue to spend, explains the broker. Add.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $0.75
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 36.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of 15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 41.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 14.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates UNI as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has lowered its rating on the retailer seeing a less attractive risk-reward balance. The broker feels near-term positives are, at this point, largely priced in.

As per UBS, the retailer has had a stronger start to the second half than expected, with Universal Store delivering resilient like for like sales growth despite facing challenging comps.

The broker does see the revenue growth outlook supported beyond FY24 by a resilient youth consumer and the merchant range and product execution.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target price increases to $6.25 from $5.25.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $0.5
If UNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of 15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 14.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
APE Eagers Automotive $13.23 Citi 13.85 13.90 -0.36%
ASG Autosports Group $2.63 Citi 3.05 3.15 -3.17%
BOQ Bank of Queensland $5.90 Morgans 5.05 5.12 -1.37%
EQT EQT Holdings $30.76 Ord Minnett 37.00 36.00 2.78%
FPR FleetPartners Group $3.60 Citi 4.20 3.60 16.67%
JHX James Hardie Industries $57.20 Macquarie 62.40 68.20 -8.50%
MMS McMillan Shakespeare $19.75 Citi 22.50 21.80 3.21%
NWL Netwealth Group $20.13 Macquarie 16.75 15.30 9.48%
UBS 22.50 21.30 5.63%
ORG Origin Energy $9.76 Macquarie 9.97 9.29 7.32%
ORI Orica $18.05 Macquarie 19.05 18.82 1.22%
PEN Peninsula Energy $0.11 Shaw and Partners 0.31 0.34 -8.82%
PWR Peter Warren Automotive $2.25 Citi 2.40 2.45 -2.04%
SIQ Smartgroup Corp $10.30 Citi 11.55 11.00 5.00%
STP Step One Clothing $1.86 Morgans 2.15 1.65 30.30%
SXL Southern Cross Media $0.94 Morgan Stanley 0.75 0.70 7.14%
UNI Universal Store $5.65 Morgans 6.50 5.65 15.04%
UBS 6.25 5.25 19.05%
Summaries
ADT Adriatic Metals Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans Overnight Price $4.11
AFG Australian Finance Group Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.61
APE Eagers Automotive Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.46
ASG Autosports Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.57
AVH Avita Medical Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.98
BOQ Bank of Queensland Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $5.92
CSL CSL Buy - UBS Overnight Price $280.40
EQT EQT Holdings Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.76
FPR FleetPartners Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.59
JHX James Hardie Industries Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $58.17
MAD Mader Group Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $6.21
MMS McMillan Shakespeare Buy - Citi Overnight Price $19.38
NST Northern Star Resources Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $15.36
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $15.36
NWL Netwealth Group Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.26
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $19.26
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $19.26
NXT NextDC Buy - UBS Overnight Price $16.71
ORG Origin Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.54
ORI Orica Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $17.82
PEN Peninsula Energy Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.11
PWR Peter Warren Automotive Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.24
SIQ Smartgroup Corp Buy - Citi Overnight Price $10.05
STO Santos Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.84
STP Step One Clothing Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.72
SXL Southern Cross Media Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.94
TLX Telix Pharmaceuticals Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $12.62
UNI Universal Store Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.75
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.75
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

18

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

7

5. Sell

3

Friday 12 April 2024

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