Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor has cut FY23 guidance amid further destocking and lower consumer demand. Cash flow guidance has dropped to $800-900m on higher payables. To offset this the company has announced more than -$50m in structural cost reductions beginning in FY24.

Citi models an earnings per share increase in FY24 of 5% to reflect cost savings and modest volume growth along with easier comparables eventuating in the second and third quarters. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $16.00 from $17.50.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.03 Difference: $0.97
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners feels the negative share price reaction in repsonse to a delay by Austin Engineering in delivering a large order to a Perth customer is overdone.

As a result of the deferral, the Perth business unit should have a good order book going into FY24, noted the company.

Management lowered FY23 guidance and now expects normalised profit to be in the range $17-$19m (including the Mainetec acquisition). The broker's prior forecast was $26.6m (including Mainetec).

The broker's target falls to 43c from 45c. Buy.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.13
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

After yesterday's big disappointment from National Australia Bank, Citi analysts believe today's H1 release by ANZ Bank falls into the category of not as bad as feared.

In an initial assessment of today's market update, Citi comments most financial metrics are either just above or just under expectations, which places ANZ Bank's performance all in all in line with the broker's and market consensus forecasts.

Higher operating costs continue to stand out as a major negative, while asset quality surprised in a positive sense and the bank is benefitting from larger offshore franchises, the broker believes.

The NIM in Australia is under downward pressure - no discussion there.

Buy. Target $27.25.

Target price is $27.25 Current Price is $23.46 Difference: $3.79
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.95, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

UBS's initial response to ANZ Bank's interim results release sums it up perfectly: "Another record bank result, another NIM miss".

Similar as was the case with National Australia Bank ((NAB)) yesterday, and with Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) a few weeks ago, market consensus forecasts are expected to reduce post today's release.

The one big difference, or so it seems, is that contrary to the peers preceding, ANZ's interim dividend has not missed forecasts. UBS had penciled in 79c and got 81c instead.

The Net Interest Margin of 175bps compares to consensus sitting at 183bps prior to today's release, according to the broker. Buy. Target $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.46 Difference: $1.54
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.95, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

April trading activity on the ASX revealed lower cash equities volumes, significantly lower capital raisings versus the previous corresponding period, and weaker futures volumes, observes Morgans.

As a result, the broker adjusts its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by zero to -4.5% and lowers its target to $72.30 from $73.40. Hold.

Target price is $72.30 Current Price is $69.28 Difference: $3.02
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.87, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AUT as Buy (1) -

Auteco Minerals has announced a further 24% resource upgrade at its Pickle Crow Gold project in Ontario, Canada.

The upgrade includes a maiden 133koz from satellite deposits, demonstrating to the broker growth potential outside the main mine trend.

The analyst is expecting further growth for the resource and maintains a Buy rating. The target falls to 13c from 14c on lower peer group multiples.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.088
If AUT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 210% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi now expects Alumina Ltd will deliver a loss in 2023 of -US$42m because of production/grade issues, rising costs and lower prices.

The broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral and lowers the target to $1.50 from $1.55. The alumina price forecasts for 2023 is reduced to US$353/t from US$360/t.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Citi found nothing untoward in the presentation from Bapcor. Guidance was reiterated for a strong underlying performance in FY23 while trade and wholesale business remains resilient and New Zealand is stabilising.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $9.18 target, given the relatively non-discretionary product offering and medium-term upside potential from the company's "Better than Before" program.

The main downside risk to short-term earnings is based on challenges in the retail business.

Target price is $9.18 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $2.64
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found the outlook for Bapcor relatively unchanged following yesterday's trading update, which in the broker's view simply copied the first half results.

Trade and wholesale markets are resilient while the retail side of the business continues to face the cost-of-living pressure.

The outlook for the NZ business shows a slight improvement with the broker noting this business experienced a -16% decline in EBITDA in the first half, affected by the weak economy.

Earnings growth is expected to be driven by the Burson trade business and continued expansion of the store network. Buy rating and $8.40 target maintained.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $1.86
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi incorporates price changes from its commodity outlook, noting macro uncertainties in the second half of 2023 are centred on the potential for a US recession.

The broker is bullish on precious metals in the short term and copper in the mid-term, while steel production cuts and regulatory risks cap upside for iron ore prices.

The broker retains a Neutral rating for BHP Group and raises the target to $45.50 from $43.00, envisaging the stock benefiting from higher copper and iron ore prices.

Target price is $45.50 Current Price is $43.97 Difference: $1.53
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.94, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBO as Buy (1) -

Cobram Estate Olives experienced unseasonably wet and cool conditions in early spring which has resulted in below-average oil accumulation. As a result, Ord Minnett trims expectations for sales volumes into FY24.

Partially offsetting supply revisions is the bullish commentary around package product sales during the second half and global pricing, with competing product prices on supermarket shelves rising between 8-20% in early 2023, the broker observes.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $1.65 from $1.64.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.26
If CBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Add (1) -

As part of its 3Q update, Credit Corp confirmed the 2H profit skew will be sufficient to deliver on FY23 guidance.

Morgans notes subdued volumes are persisting in Australia, and earnings will be re-based lower over time. Growth for the group is expected to return from FY24, thanks to profits from an already increased loan book and potential scale and efficiency gains in the US.

While the broker retains its Add rating, an improved operational performance and sector conditions are required in the US to attain an increased conviction on the outlook. 

The target falls to $23.60 from $24.50.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $17.25 Difference: $6.35
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.77, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett found no major surprises from the third quarter update as management of Credit Corp focuses on minimising cost growth and improving cash collections. The company has reiterated prior guidance that will not buy more bad debts than it can collect.

Ord Minnett expects revenue growth will fall behind expenses, leading to margin compression in the short term. The business is in reasonable shape and the broker maintains medium-term earnings forecasts, while lowering long-term "maintainable" cash flow assumptions.

Hence the target is reduced to $24 from $28. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $17.25 Difference: $6.75
If CCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.77, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Centaurus Metals has successfully completed the nickel sulphate pilot program, an important de-risking event Macquarie points out.

In addition, there was efficient cobalt recovery in the solvent extraction circuit along with high-purity cobalt hydroxide produced as a byproduct. This will feed into the Jaguar definitive feasibility study for later in the year.

Outperform rating and $1.60 target price retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.735
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

Domain Holdings Australia delivered a third quarter update that was largely in line with expectations. The business continues to experience challenges from the normalising of the listings environment.

While property prices are now holding up after falling in 2022 Ord Minnett notes the business is yet to have this translate into seller confidence and resultant listings.

Moreover, with the interest-rate hikes continuing, the broker anticipates seller confidence will remain depressed through the remainder of FY23. Lighten rating retained. Target edges up to $2.35 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

The share price of Endeavour Group has moved through the trigger level and Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Target is $6.40.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $0.03
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.75, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EV1 as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage with a Buy rating for Evolution Energy Minerals, which is developing a coarse flake graphite project in Tanzania.

The Chilalo Graphite project requires low upfront capital, highlights the analyst, and the favourably large flakes are suitable for specialty end markets. There is further optionality to move downstream into battery anode material (BAM).

The broker points out that because of low capital intensity for a restart of operations, and the potentially high operating margin, the project should be one of the first graphite producers to supply into a tight graphite market.

A 72c target is set.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.49
If EV1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 213% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Lighten (4) -

Flight Centre Travel's trading update was welcomed by Ord Minnett as it contained the most detailed disclosure from the company in more than 10 years. Underlying EBITDA guidance has increased to $270-290m.

It appeared to the broker the main theme in the update was a focus on building lower margin revenue streams from a range of sources. While not necessarily negative, Ord Minnett assesses building online bookings would likely have limited earnings upside in the medium to longer term.

The business continues to experience declines in its revenue margin, which occurred even before the pandemic, and the broker is sceptical the trend will change materially going forward. Lighten maintained. Target is steady at $17.39.

Target price is $17.39 Current Price is $21.05 Difference: minus $3.66 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the focus on expanding services to advisers and end clients is the right way to go, as it will help Hub24 differentiate its platform. There will be potential for increased share of flows by leveraging myprosperity as the front end of the core platform.

Yet the broker asserts the multiple paid is high, as the acquisition is not expected to be earnings accretive until FY27.

The main revenue opportunity, in the broker's view, is whether the acquisition will attract additional flows as Hub24's share of industry gross flows has been steady at 11% in recent quarters. Citi reduces the target to $30.15 from $30.65 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $30.15 Current Price is $26.51 Difference: $3.64
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.64, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Buy (1) -

ikeGPS Group's FY23 (Q4) update largely met Bell Potter's forecasts, the company posting annual revenue growth of 93% to NZ$30.8m.

The broker has reduced its transaction revenue estimates (which were in line) for FY24 and inches up subscription revenue forecasts (which outpaced), otherwise all is steady as she goes, says the broker.

Bell Potter suspects the company could outpace its FY24 revenue forecasts given the rate of growth in FY23 and FY23 given the underlying thesis is active and believes the company is well positioned to benefit from the rollout of 5G, fibre and rural broadband in North America. FY24 EPS forecasts are cut.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $1.23 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.23 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.44
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates its models to allow for higher levels of assets under management and raises the target to $39 from $37. A heavier focus on equities means Janus Henderson will likely continue to generate negative asset growth during 2023-25.

Still, the broker envisages the flow picture will improve gradually over time with annual organic AUM growth in a -3% to 2% range during 2023-27. Hold maintained.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $39.41 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.98, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries' US competitor LP Building Solutions reported a March quarter decline in siding volumes of -9% year on year, with revenues balanced out by a 10% price increase, UBS reports.

Management noted the challenging period was due to a combination of housing volumes and "elevated levels of channel inventory" but this appears to have eased and it notes the "siding order path has seen a notable uptick in recent weeks".

While pricing is "dynamic", LP is not contemplating any declines in its "price list" which UBS views as positive for James Hardie. Buy and $44.50 target retained.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $33.87 Difference: $10.63
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.50, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

In a decision that will deliver $12m to earnings (EBITDA), according to Morgans, Jumbo Interactive will increase the commission it charges on digital lottery tickets later this month.

The broker's FY23 earnings estimate falls by -7% due to a poor run of large Powerball and Oz Lotto jackpots in recent months. It's thought this has caused recent share price underperformance.

The net result from the above is a rise in Morgans target price to $16.90 fcrom $16.50.

The analyst considers it timely to acquire shares as jackpot sequencing will normalise over time. Add.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $14.28 Difference: $2.62
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KGL as Speculative Buy (1) -

With the aim of advancing the Jervois Copper project in the Northern Territory, KGL Resources has launched a 10-for-27 pro-rata non-renounceable rights issue at 12c per KGL Resources share to raise up to $20.2m.

The dilution from the capital raise reduces the broker's target to 40c from 81.5c. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

The analyst expects the final investment decision (FID) will follow settlement of a diverse financing structure.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.27
If KGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 208% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Magellan Financial reported April funds under management saw -$2.4bn in outlfows, balanced by strong markets.

UBS believes most of the bad news is now behind the stock, and the prospect of improvement is being led by stronger Global Fund investment performance during March/April lifting the one-year performance record into positive territory.

On lower net outflows, the broker upgrades earnings forecasts, but leaves its target at $9.50. Buy retained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $1.2
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.12, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as No Rating (-1) -

Upon initial glance, Macquarie Group's FY23 performance looks slightly better-than-anticipated, but Citi analysts also point out the composition of today's release is sharply different by segment.

The performance has been underpinned by a big upside surprise by CGM NPC, which compensated for weakness elsewhere. Citi thinks consensus forecasts are likely to decline post today's update.

The analysts also suggest management is likely to guide FY24 around current consensus, leaving plenty of room for bulls and bears to see whatever they prefer.

MacCap was impacted by negative revaluations and fewer material asset realisations with guidance for significantly higher investment-related income for FY24.

No rating from Citi. Target $190.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $177.74 Difference: $12.26
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $209.95, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, UBS finds the standout in today's FY23 release from Macquarie Group is CGM. The broker does question the sustainability of it.

At face value, today's performance has beaten both UBS's and market consensus profit forecasts. Costs proved higher. Return on Equity equally beat expectations.

Buy. Target $211.

Target price is $211.00 Current Price is $177.74 Difference: $33.26
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $209.95, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

As the share price for Mystate has moved through Ord Minnett's trigger level the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $5.20.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $1.77
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

First half cash earnings of $4.07bn were below expectations. The weakness, Citi points out, stemmed from net interest margins which can be directly linked to the performance of the deposit franchise where volume growth "collapsed" over the period.

A revised outlook for net interest margins means earnings downgrades of -4-9%. Citi retains a Neutral rating on National Australia Bank post the sell-off and believes there is better value in other majors. The broker lowers the target to $27.50 from $29.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: $0.78
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Like other brokers, Macquarie was disappointed with the margin outcome in the first half results. The broker expects National Australia Bank's margins will settle at 1.65% in FY24, amid ongoing pressures from higher deposit pricing and wholesale funding costs.

Otherwise the performance across most business units was positive. The broker envisages limited scope for a re-rating of the stock in the short term given inflationary headwinds and declining returns in FY24.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $28 from $30.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: $1.28
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

National Australia Bank's March-quarter margins missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts, triggering a sharp downgrade to the broker's estimates.

The broker suspects the bank is losing its recent operating mojo as it confronts slowing loan growth, higher costs, lower margins and rising bad and doubtful debts.

The broker observes the bank has shelved further buybacks and spies negative jaws and declining earnings going forward.

EPS forecasts fall -8% to -13% across the forecast period but dividend forecasts ease only slightly.

Equal-Weight rating and $27.70 target price retained.

Target price is $27.70 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: $0.98
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank's 1H net interest margin (NIM) was not as strong as Morgans expected and is trending in the wrong direction.

While capital strength was evident to the analyst, management conservatively paused new buybacks, and the DPS payout ratio was below target. 

Morgans highlights net interest income delivered around 80% of revenue for the half and grew by 9%.

Overall, the result was below expectations and the broker's target falls to $28.02 from $28.78 after lowering FY23-25 cash EPS forecasts by -4%, -4% and -2%, respectively.

Target price is $28.02 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: $1.3
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

In the wake of National Australia Bank's first half results, Ord Minnett reduces FY23 and FY24 net interest margin forecasts to 1.75%. The impact on net interest income is helped by a larger interest-earning asset base than the broker originally forecast.

Ord Minnett estimates second-quarter profits were down -11% compared with the first quarter and observes the market is clearly unimpressed with the negative earnings trajectory.

The business and private banking division delivered much better margin expansion than the retail bank, testament to National Australia Bank's market position, and Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: $3.28
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

For the most part National Australia Bank delivered an in-line set of numbers, notes UBS, but the net interest margin outcome was worse than expected, hence the share price sell-off.

The broker believes NAB will face further and new headwinds through the second half, which could shave another -4-7bps from the NIM. To that end UBS has cut its NIM assumptions, and thus its earnings forecasts.

With the share price still trading at a higher relative valuation to peers, the broker sees better value elsewhere, and retains Sell and a $25.00 target.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

For the sixth time in around six months, Morgans oscillates its rating between Hold and Buy for Nanosonics.

In that time, the share price has trended upwards from around $4.00 to yesterday's close of $5.47, with periodic pullbacks in price.

The analyst has, on his own assessment, been timing these pullbacks very well and now downgrades to Hold from Add. The aim is to await a share price closer to $5.00 before reversing the rating again.

The broker's forecasts and $5.24 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $5.24 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses, for Nine Entertainment, the pandemic's boost to TV earnings has well and truly dissipated. The broker reduces EBITDA forecast for the next three years by around -3%, mostly in TV.

The positive impact of "cheap-money stimulus" and advertiser competition is now overshadowed by economic woes and reduced marketing expenditure.

Still, revenue share in TV is growing strongly for the company and TV earnings are still expected to be 17% above pre-pandemic levels in FY23 because of a structural surge in broadcast video on demand and cost base transformation.

Ord Minnett finds compelling value in the stock and retains an Accumulate rating and $2.80 target.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $0.79
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

As borders have reopened this has supported a rebound in earnings growth for travel and international health insurance while the claims rebound in Australian resident health insurance continues to be slower than expected.

Given the status of policyholder growth, Macquarie believes nib Holdings is fairly priced. The broker downgrades FY23 earnings per share estimates by -1.3%, and FY24 by -0.2%. Target is raised to $7.65 from $7.55 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

nib Holdings' FY23 update guided to rising net policyholder numbers of 4% to 5% (compared with previous guidance of 3% to 5%) and hospital claims remained relatively subdued, risingly only slightly.

Management advised its fourth acquisition of an NDIS company is on track for May.

Equal-weight rating and $6.95 target price retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie found the update from oOh!media soft, with first quarter revenue up just 3% and April revenue down -10%. Margin compression has been flagged and this causes downgrades to earnings estimates.

The outdoor advertising industry is well-positioned to gain share from other media formats and the share price movement has already reflected a negative earnings outcome, the broker suggests.

The stock is considered one of the cheapest globally of the listed operators in this space and, hence, Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $1.82 from $2.49.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.63
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OML as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As oOh!media has moved through Ord Minnett's trigger level the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.31
If OML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi incorporates price changes from its commodity outlook, noting macro uncertainties in the second half of 2023 are centred on the potential for a US recession.

The broker is bullish on precious metals in the short term, and copper in the mid-term, while steel production cuts and regulatory risks cap upside for iron ore prices.

The broker retains a Neutral rating for Rio Tinto and steady target at $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $110.14 Difference: $9.86
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.07, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SBM as Neutral/High Risk (3) -

St Barbara does not find the counter bid for Gwalia from Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)) compelling enough to be a "superior offer". 

At face value the offer is a 28% premium to the Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) offer yet the cash component is lower and, as Citi points out, St Barbara needs liquidity.

Citi maintains a Neutral/High Risk rating with a $0.65 target.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Super Retail has demonstrated resilience in its trading update, Citi observes. On the negative side, gross profit margins appear to be down -80 basis points in the second half although this is better than the market expected.

Higher promotional intensity in BCF categories has continued from the first half. The broker reduces FY23 EBIT by -1% and retains Super Retail as its top pick in consumer discretionary stocks.

All brands recorded like-for-like sales growth in the second half to date with Rebel and Macpac the highlights. While the multiple has re-rated, Citi argues this is justified given the more stable outlook for the company's categories and retains a Buy rating. Target is $14.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.49 Difference: $2.01
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Sales for Super Retail have grown 10% in FY23 to date with like-for-like sales up 9%. Despite the resilience of sales, Macquarie notes second half margins are under pressure amid discounting and cost inflation.

Moreover, the business will have to defend tough comparables going forward given accelerating macro headwinds. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $12.50 from $13.46.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.49 Difference: $0.01
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

Super Retail's sales momentum in the 3Q has been more resilient than Morgans had assumed in recent weeks, though gross margins slightly missed the broker's forecast.

After raising sales estimates and lowering gross margin expectations, Morgans increases its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by 3% and 4%, respectively. The target climbs to $15.50 from $15.00.

While the broker continues to expect tougher trading conditions in coming months, the Add rating is retained. 

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $12.49 Difference: $3.01
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Upgrade to Lighten from Sell (4) -

Super Retail sales growth slowed to the low single digits in the second half of April, Ord Minnett observes. Momentum is expected to continue easing while competition intensifies in the short term.

In the outdoor category, which accounts for around 20% of estimated group earnings, competition remains high and price cutting is affecting profits.

At current prices, the shares screen significantly overvalued and Ord Minnett believes the market under appreciates the risks, especially monetary policy tightening that is designed to curtail consumption.

The broker raises the rating to Lighten from Sell because of the share price movement and retains a $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $12.49 Difference: minus $2.99 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Outside of China, Syrah Resources is the only vertically integrated, natural graphite, active anode material producer of scale, points out Shaw and Partners.

Tesla is a foundation customer and the company is currently constructing a large active anode material facility in Louisiana, and is pre-financial investment decision (FID) with the aim of expanding to 45ktpa.

The company has US$84m in cash to fund these aspirations, notes the broker, and will access the US Department of Energy loan and grant, supplied under the US Clean Energy Inflation Reduction Act.

The analyst initiates coverage with a Buy rating and sets a $1.40 target.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.455
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 52.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VUK as Accumulate (2) -

The first half result was weaker than Ord Minnett expected largely because of higher operating expenses and bad debts. This has resulted in -7% reduction in the broker's profit forecasts for Virgin Money UK in the short term although the impact is less material further out.

Loan balances were flat in the half, with business loan growth of 4.2% dragged back by shrinking home loans and unsecured balances. Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating with a $4.00 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $1.09
If VUK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources