Australian Broker Call

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January 28, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BOQ - BANK OF QUEENSLAND Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
MQG - MACQUARIE GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
TPM - TPG TELECOM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
WEB - WEBJET Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
AGI  AINSWORTH GAME TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $0.72

Macquarie rates AGI as Neutral (3) -

The broker has reviewed December quarter performance across 47,000 slot machines in Australia and found Aristocrat Leisure continues to have the most popular titles, with new game performance 1.3x the floor average.

Ainsworth Game Technology continues to underperform at 0.8x, while for other competitors the numbers are hit and miss. Neutral and 80c target retained for Ainsworth.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.08
If AGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 144.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.00.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $35.63

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

The broker has reviewed December quarter performance across 47,000 slot machines in Australia and found Aristocrat Leisure continues to have the most popular titles, with new game performance 1.3x the floor average.

Ainsworth Game Technology continues to underperform at 0.8x, while for other competitors the numbers are hit and miss. Outperform and $37.50 target retained for Aristocrat.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $35.63 Difference: $1.87
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.29, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.8, implying annual growth of 44.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.6, implying annual growth of 9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ  BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $7.41

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett believes 2020 will be a challenging year for retail and commercial banks. It is difficult to envisage significant upside for share prices although material downside is also considered unlikely.

Bank stocks appear cheap versus an expensive market, the broker adds. Bank of Queensland is upgraded to Hold from Lighten, given the recent underperformance in the share price.

Target is $7.70. The broker still expects a reduction in the dividend in the first half resulting from margin pressure.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $0.29
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.79, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of -16.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of -4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIM  CIMIC GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $28.33

Ord Minnett rates CIM as Buy (1) -

The company has decided to exit its Middle Eastern contracting joint venture which will result in a -$1.8bn post-tax write-down in 2019. This includes a -$700m cash outlay in 2020.

Size of the impact was larger than Ord Minnett expected although the exit should be positive in the longer term, allowing the company to focus on core markets.

The broker continues to believe CIMIC will be a beneficiary of sustained infrastructure construction on the east coast. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $40 from $43.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $28.33 Difference: $11.67
If CIM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.48, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 247.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.4, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 255.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.4, implying annual growth of 2.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE  COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.55

Ord Minnett rates COE as Re-instate coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reinstates coverage with a Hold rating and $0.64 target, while preferring other stocks in the sector. Production is expected to grow materially over the next five years, supported by the Sole and Henry developments.

The broker is also positive about the outlook for east coast gas, notwithstanding weak prices. Further development opportunities include the Manta field and the Annie, Elanora and Nestor targets.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal

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Overnight Price: $2.05

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse makes modelling adjustments, including a reduction to US sales volumes over the next two years. This is despite some commentary that appears optimistic regarding export tonnage at Buchanan amid the signing of the US/China trade deal.

The stock remains the most leveraged name to any price recovery in the broker's coverage and an Outperform rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $1.45
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 70.46 cents and EPS of 46.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 34.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 32.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.11 cents and EPS of 21.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -55.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the outlook for volumes and prices is clouded by difficult US export markets. The broker trims estimates for operating earnings by -2-3%.

The stock is still considered cheap but the earnings risk linked to export splits and pricing remains. Hence, the broker suggests momentum investors wait for a better risk-adjusted opportunity.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.95.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.75
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.11 cents and EPS of 43.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 28.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 32.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.86 cents and EPS of 24.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -55.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CRN as Neutral (3) -

December quarter production was below expectations because of maintenance over-runs at Curragh and extended shutdowns in the US in order to manage inventory.

Buchanan and Logan sales were lower, attributed to high inventory and lower exports to China in the case of Buchanan and lower Atlantic demand in the case of Logan.

UBS also notes uncertainty surrounding China's restrictions on Australian exports have weighed on demand. Moreover, outside of China, many steel producers have been affected by a slowdown in demand for steel.

Neutral rating and $2.05 target maintained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 66.32 cents and EPS of 46.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 32.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 32.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.4.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.98 cents and EPS of 14.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -55.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW  DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $7.29

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Accumulate (2) -

Downer EDI has reduced FY20 net profit guidance by -18% and also warned of lower cash conversion. Ord Minnett notes guidance implies losses in the engineering, construction and maintenance division.

The restructure of the division should focus on projects where the company has competitive strength, the broker adds.

Ord Minnett was disappointed with the update but believes it highlights why the company has been progressively shifting away from short-term projects to longer-term service agreements.

Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $8.90 from $9.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $1.61
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.0, implying annual growth of 25.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GXY  GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $1.06

Credit Suisse rates GXY as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production met guidance. However, sales missed guidance and reflected persistent market weakness. Credit Suisse notes Mount Cattlin is performing well and while 60% recovery is yet to be consistently demonstrated it looks achievable.

The broker reviews estimates for Sal de Vida which generates a lower project valuation. Still, Credit Suisse likes the new strategy as it provides reduced expenditure and a faster route to market.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.44
If GXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $7.16

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers estimates for earnings per share in FY20 by -9% in FY21 by -2% following the lowered guidance (profit warning). The impact of recent inclement weather is no surprise to the broker but that cannot be said about a softer top line and lower-than-expected reserve releases.

There appears a strong chance aggregate cover will now be triggered, which Citi believes will make the January 1, 2021 reinsurance re-negotiation more challenging.

Citi retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $8.40 from $8.75.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $1.24
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

The losses from the recent hail events in addition to bushfires has meant the company's catastrophe budget has increased to $715m and contributed around 100 basis points to the -150 basis points downgrade to FY20 margin estimates.

The FY20 margin guidance of 14.5-16.5% assumes events for the remainder of the second half are less than $100m, highlight the analysts.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to $7.90 from $8.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $0.74
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

A combination of a provision for customer refunds, hailstorm impacts and lower reserve releases will reduce FY20 earnings. Morgans, as a result, downgrades estimates for cash earnings per share by -5%.

While the outlook is supported in the near term by the rolling through of optimisation benefits and potential buybacks, the broker envisages little room for disappointment at current multiples.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.11 from $7.47.

Target price is $7.11 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 35.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.80 cents and EPS of 39.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

The company has revised guidance for FY20 with margin pressure resulting from inclement weather, lower reserve releases and more client remediation costs. Reported margin guidance has been reduced to 14.5-16.5% from 16-18%.

Ord Minnett is cautious, assessing the mid point of guidance does not adequately reflect the perils cost or the risk of a lack of reserve releases.

One small positive could be if the industry responds to the accumulated losses with a sharp increase in rates. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.84 from $7.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.84 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

The company has downgraded its FY20 outlook, given higher natural perils expectations in the wake of recent hailstorms on the east coast.

Of more concern to UBS is the higher long-tail claims inflation that is driving lower first half reserve releases. Premium growth is also trending below expectations.

While the company expects a first half underlying ITR margin of 16.9%, in line with initial guidance, reported margins will be -340 basis points lower at 13.5%. This reflects higher natural peril costs and lower reserve releases.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $7.65 from $7.95.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $0.49
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD  IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.13

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Revenue in the second quarter was $1.5m and the contracted revenue pipeline is up 4% while annual recurring revenue is up 7% on the prior quarter.

The main risk Morgans envisages is delays in, or failure to adopt, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, which includes the company's technology.

Speculative Buy (Add) rating and 26c target maintained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.13
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.10.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $2.22

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Production in the December quarter was slightly weaker than Ord Minnett expected. While intrigued by commentary surrounding the relocation of solvent extraction to Western Australia, the broker found little that was new to change its view.

FY20 estimates for earnings are trimmed by -15% because of higher depreciation. The broker retains a Buy rating and $4.80 target.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $2.58
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.95.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Revenue was 6% ahead of UBS estimates in the December quarter. The broker likes the company's strategic position as the only producer of rare earths outside of China, for which demand is set to double by 2025.

UBS downgrades near-term commodity assumptions, as prices during 2019 were below forecasts. This drives a -26% downgrade to FY20 operating earnings estimates and -16% downgrade to FY21. Buy rating and $3 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.78
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.00.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGX  MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $0.91

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

The ramp up at Koolan Island continues and Macquarie welcomes the decision to increase sales of low-grade stockpiles on the back of buoyant iron ore prices.

FY20 guidance has been upgraded to sales of 4.8-5.3mt. Volumes from Koolan Island are unchanged thus the sales guidance, Macquarie assesses, comes from planning for additional low-grade mid-west ore.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced by -8% to $1.10 as the broker lowers the earnings forecast profile. Realised pricing assumptions are also lowered going forward.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.19
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.83.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.58.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $16.74

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Mineral Resources reported strong iron ore production in the December quarter, with Mt Marion operations remaining stable and Koolyanobbing set to ramp up further. Wodgina (lithium) has now been placed in care & maintenance and the broker believes that decision to be prudent.

The broker's earnings forecasts sit some 10% above consensus due to higher expected iron ore prices on top of a guidance-beating performance from Mineral Services. Outperform and $20 target retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.74 Difference: $3.26
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.30, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 93.00 cents and EPS of 199.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of 122.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 181.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.6, implying annual growth of -17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Production and shipments were softer than Morgan Stanley expected. Although this implies a small downside risk to FY20 estimates for revenue, the broker assesses it could be offset by the strength in the iron ore price currently.

Overweight rating. Target is $17.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $16.74 Difference: $0.36
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.30, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 216.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of 122.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.60 cents and EPS of 125.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.6, implying annual growth of -17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the company's iron ore production in FY20 is in a sweet spot, although volume growth is absent from the mining services division and it could be a while before the lithium division contributes significantly.

The broker notes the company has disposed of its 51% interest in the McIntosh graphite project joint venture and will write off the investment of $5m in FY20. The stake in Perth Basin explorer Norwest Energy ((NEW)) has increased to 19.9%.

Hold rating and $14.80 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $16.74 Difference: minus $1.94 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.30, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 166.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of 122.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.6, implying annual growth of -17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $142.85

Citi rates MQG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Since the earnings trough in 2012, Citi notes the company has had a stellar run up in the share price.

The stock is now on unfamiliar ground as earnings momentum is set to slow and the broker believes the recent re-rating is now implying upgrades to guidance.

The likelihood of another record year looks a difficult proposition to Citi and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target is steady at $123.50.

Target price is $123.50 Current Price is $142.85 Difference: minus $19.35 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $136.82, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 832.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 856.0, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 766.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 864.9, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 600.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS  METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $2.63

Credit Suisse rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

A new retailer co-operative appears designed to reduce buying costs and improve the availability of local and specialty lines that do not compete directly with the range offered by Metcash.

If limited to such products the impact of this new cooperative on the company would be minimal, Credit Suisse assesses.

The broker finds it hard to come up with an alternative to the heavy risk weighting the market applies to the company's food division.

The pursuit of differentiation, which the co-operative supports, reflects an evolution of the independent retail sector and this appears to move it further away from the company.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $2.64 target.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.01
If MTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 19.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of -5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $6.34

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

UBS analysts have reduced forecasts by -4%-5% from FY21 and the reasons are recent Australian bushfires and the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, with both factors contributing to an expected decline in travel.

UBS now expects international traffic to shrink by -3%. Further downside from worse scenarios is definitely not off the cards, the analysts suggest. They highlight some 45% of inbound passengers in Australia are tourists on holiday.

Buy rating retained while the price target loses -20c to $7.30.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: $0.96
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.0, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.2, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $5.63

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

The December quarter results validate the company's strategy at MOD with accelerated exploration providing an encouraging suite of shallow copper intersections.

Credit Suisse also suspects this may lead to an uplift in the value of the T3 copper deposit.

A feasibility study will be completed in the June quarter. Outperform rating and $6.30 target maintained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $0.67
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.02 cents and EPS of 67.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.2, implying annual growth of 6.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.32 cents and EPS of 90.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.5, implying annual growth of 33.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS  TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $3.86

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects Telstra to maintain FY20 guidance for underlying operating earnings of $7.4-7.9bn and capital expenditure of $2.9-3.3bn.

The broker lowers the discount rate used to value the majority of the company's business which increases the target to $4.35 from $3.90. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $0.49
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 19.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 13.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 19.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPM  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $7.14

Credit Suisse rates TPM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse expects the merger with Vodafone Australia will proceed and now reflects this in its valuation of the stock.

As it is trading close to the updated target, raised to $6.70 from $5.50, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

The broker believes the outcomes from the NBN wholesale pricing review will be incrementally positive for TPG Telecom.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.66, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 25.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 46.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 26.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of -18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOC  VOCUS GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $3.26

Credit Suisse rates VOC as Neutral (3) -

Despite the continuing competition from NBN in the enterprise segment, Credit Suisse does not envisage much risk to the company's FY20 guidance for underlying operating earnings of $359-379m.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $3.50 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.24
If VOC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 199.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB  WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $12.37

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the company's B2C business in Australia is most at risk from the trends that are playing out elsewhere.

Expedia and TripAdvisor have both cited increased monetisation of search traffic by Google as a contributing factor to declines in their earnings and outlook.

Morgan Stanley expects revenue leakage, growth in marketing costs and ultimately compression in multiples.

The implications are considered material and the broker downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $10.00 from $12.40. Industry View is In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $12.37 Difference: minus $2.37 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 33.50 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of 41.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.2, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ANZ ANZ BANKING GROUP $25.47 Ord Minnett 26.80 26.40 1.52%
BEN BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK $10.21 Ord Minnett 10.00 9.80 2.04%
CBA COMMBANK $84.02 Ord Minnett 74.80 74.00 1.08%
CIM CIMIC GROUP $28.33 Ord Minnett 40.00 43.00 -6.98%
COE COOPER ENERGY $0.55 Ord Minnett 0.64 0.35 82.86%
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES $2.05 Credit Suisse 3.50 4.00 -12.50%
Morgans 2.80 2.95 -5.08%
DOW DOWNER EDI $7.29 Ord Minnett 8.90 9.50 -6.32%
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES $1.06 Credit Suisse 1.50 1.80 -16.67%
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA $7.16 Citi 8.40 8.75 -4.00%
Morgan Stanley 7.90 8.00 -1.25%
Morgans 7.11 6.94 2.45%
Ord Minnett 6.84 7.18 -4.74%
UBS 7.65 7.60 0.66%
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES $16.74 Macquarie 20.00 19.40 3.09%
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP $142.85 Ord Minnett 149.00 136.00 9.56%
NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK $25.59 Ord Minnett 29.70 29.30 1.37%
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS $6.34 UBS 7.30 7.50 -2.67%
QBE QBE INSURANCE $13.66 Morgan Stanley 14.10 13.90 1.44%
TLS TELSTRA CORP $3.86 Credit Suisse 4.35 3.90 11.54%
TPM TPG TELECOM $7.14 Credit Suisse 6.70 5.50 21.82%
VOC VOCUS GROUP $3.26 Credit Suisse 3.50 3.40 2.94%
WBC WESTPAC BANKING $25.03 Ord Minnett 25.20 25.00 0.80%
WEB WEBJET $12.37 Morgan Stanley 10.00 12.40 -19.35%
Summaries
AGI AINSWORTH GAME TECHN Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.72
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $35.63
BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.41
CIM CIMIC GROUP Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.33
COE COOPER ENERGY Re-instate coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.55
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.05
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.05
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.05
DOW DOWNER EDI Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.29
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.06
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.16
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.16
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.16
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.16
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.16
IPD IMPEDIMED Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.13
LYC LYNAS CORP Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.22
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.22
MGX MOUNT GIBSON IRON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.91
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.74
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.74
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $16.74
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $142.85
MTS METCASH Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.63
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.34
SFR SANDFIRE Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.63
TLS TELSTRA CORP Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.86
TPM TPG TELECOM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.14
VOC VOCUS GROUP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.26
WEB WEBJET Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.37
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

12

5. Sell

2

Tuesday 28 January 2020

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