Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates AAR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Astral Resources reported assay results from 17 holes at the Theia Deposit at the Mandilla Gold Project, with Shaw and Partners noting strong correlation with the mineral resource model.

Intercepts included 32m at 10.78g/t gold from 50m, supporting the broker's confidence in early production.

Theia underpins around 75% of total production in the prefeasibility study (PFS), which assumes 14 years of mining plus five years of stockpile processing, explain the analysts.

Key inputs include throughput of 2.75mtpa, output of 94koz gold a year, capex of -$250m, and costs (AISC) of -$2,114/oz.

Shaw and Partners' target is unchanged at 45c. Buy, High Risk retained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.26
If AAR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie finds AGL Energy's valuation post the stock's de-rating after FY25 earnings as increasingly compelling.

The current price-to-earnings multiple is circa 9.3x, around two standard deviations below the long-term average and around a -55% discount to industrials valuation. The yield is considered sustainable at circa 6%.

Quality of earnings is anticipated to improve as batteries replace older gas and coal contracts over the next two years.

Macquarie tweaks net profit after tax forecasts down by -1.47% for FY26 and -3.5% for FY27 due to higher funding costs assumed.

Target price rises to $11, up 9c. An Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $2.8
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.77, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BTR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Brightstar Resources reported results from 1,100m of drilling at the Laverton Hub, with Shaw and Partners noting intercepts such as 32m at 7.16g/t gold from 69m.

The program was designed to improve confidence in the resource and indicated potential extensions beneath inferred zones, explain the analysts.

The broker highlights a merger announcement with Aurumin ((AUN)), which consolidates the Central Sandstone region into a 2.4moz resource base.

Preliminary work suggests a 2.5–3.5mtpa operation producing 120–140koz annually, supporting Brightstar’s goal of 200kozpa by 2029, note the analysts.

Brightstar finished the June quarter with $11.7m cash and US$10m debt, before a $50m raising lifted cash to $43.7m. Shaw and Partners leaves forecasts unchanged and maintains a Buy, High Risk rating with a $1.21 target price.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.735
If BTR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CIP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's economics team forecasts the RBA to cut rates to 3.1% by February 2026, which is broadly in line with market expectations. Looking at AREITs, the analyst notes on average the interest rate hedging base for rates is at 3.1%-3.2% over the next two years.

For REITs which hedged at higher rates, there is scope for earnings upside if the swaps expiring are broken or altered.

Centuria Industrial REIT could experience mild earnings headwinds as the hedged rates are below 3% through to FY26/FY27. The analyst tweaks FFO forecasts for the issuance of exchangeable notes to 18.5c for FY26 from 18.2c.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target raised to $3.63 from $3.62. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.63 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.26
If CIP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's economics team forecasts the RBA to cut rates to 3.1% by February 2026, which is broadly in line with market expectations. Looking at AREITs, the analyst notes on average the interest rate hedging base for rates is at 3.1%-3.2% over the next two years.

For REITs which hedged at higher rates, there is scope for earnings upside if the swaps expiring are broken or altered. Conversely those REITs with lower interest rate hedges could experience earnings headwinds.

The report suggests Centuria Office REIT has potentially around 3.5% of estimated latent FFO uplift if its hedging drops to 55% in FY28 from 82% in FY26.

Underweight rating. Target price $1.25. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a structural shift in supermarkets, with Coles Group continuing to outperform Woolworths Group operationally.

The broker notes Coles’ sales momentum has surpassed Woolworths for the first time in nearly a decade, underpinned by stronger supplier terms, promotions, loyalty, e-commerce and availability, reflecting market share gains.

Closing the e-commerce penetration gap with Woolworths could deliver around 80bps of annual sales growth for Coles over the next few years, predict the analysts.

By contrast, Woolworths faces the need to materially increase price investment beyond consensus assumptions, suggests the broker, which could create downside risk to earnings in FY26.

Morgan Stanley prefers Coles over Woolworths, citing supply chain efficiencies, sales momentum, e-commerce gains and maturing investments in retail media and loyalty, offering a lower-risk earnings growth profile in FY25–27.

The target for Coles Group rises by $3.00 to $26.80. Overweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.80 Current Price is $23.69 Difference: $3.11
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.91, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's economics team forecasts the RBA to cut rates to 3.1% by February 2026, which is broadly in line with market expectations. Looking at AREITs, the analyst notes on average the interest rate hedging base for rates is at 3.1%-3.2% over the next two years.

For REITs which hedged at higher rates, there is scope for earnings upside if the swaps expiring are broken or altered.

The analyst highlights GPT Group is worth watching as a large proportion of its debt book is hedged through to Dec'27 at 60-70bps above 3%, and earnings could potentially move higher by an estimated 4.3% if base rates were brought back in line with the market.

FFO estimates could possibly be lifted to 16-17% growth in 2025-2028 from 13% currently.

Overweight. Target price $6.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $0.57
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's economics team forecasts the RBA to cut rates to 3.1% by February 2026, which is broadly in line with market expectations. Looking at AREITs, the analyst notes on average the interest rate hedging base for rates is at 3.1%-3.2% over the next two years.

For REITs which hedged at higher rates, there is scope for earnings upside if the swaps expiring are broken or altered.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is estimated to have potentially circa 1.5% of FFO to be unlocked when the current swaps roll off. Currently the REIT has $982m hedged at 3.4% out of a total debt book of $1.76bn.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $1.34. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley’s 2025 proprietary survey of 1,764 Australian consumers highlights erosion in the Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group motor insurance duopoly. Combined share is running at circa 48% versus higher levels in prior years.

Suncorp is attracting new customers broadly in line with the market at 1.0 times, while Insurance Australia Group lags at 0.8 times, with NRMA underperforming, observe the analysts.

The broker points out more consumers are shopping around, with 54% seeking quotes compared to 47% in 2024, though switching remains low at 10%. It's noted Insurance Australia Group is disproportionately winning from Suncorp.

The broker's target for Insurance Australia Group rises to $8.80 from $8.45. Equal-weight maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.09
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Iluka Resources will suspend operations at its SR2 kiln (225kt capacity) for at least six months from December and halt mining at Cataby for 12 months, citing weak synthetic rutile demand.

SR1 remains offline, points out Citi, and its restart is now expected in FY27, six months later than previously assumed.

The broker points out Iluka holds significant synthetic rutile and chloride ilmenite inventory, which will be used to meet customer needs, implying flat sales in 2026 versus 2025.

Citi cuts its 2025 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -3% and 2026 by -30%, with sales forecasts down -19%, assuming SR2 restarts mid-2026 and inventory sales continue.

Net debt excluding the refinery was $164m at June 30, while cash stood at $191m. 

Neutral, High Risk rating. Target unchanged at $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights affirmative actions being adopted by Iluka Resources to address a challenging operating environment.

Management is suspending production at its Cataby mine and Synthetic Rutile Kiln 2 (SR2) starting December 1 due to weak demand. Production is due to be on hold for six months at SR2 and 12 months at Cataby.

The analyst notes there are sufficient inventories of synthetic rutile and ilmenite for existing contracts, and both will restart when conditions improve.

Morgan Stanley believes US housing has particularly weighed on the mineral sands market and any recovery would underpin a quick recovery in the stock and inventory drawdowns.

Target remains at $6.40 with an Overweight rating unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $0.85
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes Iluka Resources' move to suspend operations of its SR2 synthetic rutile mine and the Cataby mine is a prudent step and is in response to weak pigment demand.

The suspension for SR2 will be for six months, and Cataby for 12 months, and both will begin on December 1. The aim is to reduce the large inventory of $1.19bn as of June 30.

The move will not affect sales due to existing inventories but the broker pushed back the timeframe for the restart of SR1 kiln by 12 months to March 2028.

Sharp downgrades to FY25-26 EPS forecasts. Target cut to $5.50 from $6.00.

Hold maintained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes production suspension announcement at Iluka Resources' two operations is a sign of continued weakness in the mineral sands and pigments markets, and is labeled a financially prudent decision.

The SR2 kiln will be suspended for six months and the Cataby mine for 12 months, both starting December 1.

The broker highlights producer Venator going into administration may be an added reason, as it was a significant volume contributor to the take-or-pay arrangements for the SR2 mine.

While the broker is cautious on mineral sands, it is increasingly positive on the ex-China rare earths sector and Eneabba's role in it.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -20% and FY26 by -17%, but the savings on cost and capex have alleviated balance sheet concerns.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $5.45.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MI6 as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Minerals 260 with a 30c target and Buy rating.

The broker sees the Bullabulling project as financially viable under current gold prices, and notes the project, acquired earlier this year, benefits from being on a granted mining lease with substantial prior exploration.

Earlier development stalled when gold traded between US$900–1800/oz, explains the analyst.

Further drilling, including recent high-grade intercepts, should support a final investment decision (FID) within 18 months, suggests Ord Minnett. Current cash of $54m is considered sufficient to reach that point.

Ord Minnett models production of 150koz annually at 1.0g/t from 5mtpa throughput, with early years expected to average around 177koz.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.125
If MI6 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 100.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Citi has lowered its Metcash FY26 earnings (EBIT) forecast by around -4% and by -1% thereafter, following the company’s AGM update.

The broker is reacting to new guidance for one-off costs within operating segments and additional ongoing corporate costs, while revenue forecasts remain unchanged.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and a $3.90 target price.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes the sales improvement experienced over 4Q25 has continued for Metcash into 1Q26 (18-week trading update).

Group sales rose 5.1% ex tobacco and 1.1% including tobacco, which incorporates Superior Food sales.

Hardware sales advanced by 1.8% versus 1.1% for seven weeks of year-to-date FY26, with hardware like-for-like sales up 2.3% versus 0.8% on the seven-week update. Total tools like-for-like sales improved to -2% from -2.7% for the seven-week period.

Liquor sales were in line with the seven weeks, and supermarket sales rose 2.6% versus 2.9% for the seven weeks.

No change to $3.75 target. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line. Morgan Stanley retains its earnings forecasts.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

In a trading update alongside FY25 AGM, Metcash announced group sales (ex-tobacco) rose 1.1% y/y in the 18 weeks to August, a run-rate pointing to a miss to expectations for 1H26 revenue growth of 1.7%.

Sales in dominant supermarkets rose 2.4% vs 2.9% growth for the first seven weeks reported by Woolworths Group ((WOW)) and Coles Group ((COL)), Ord Minnett notes. In the case of tobacco, the pace of decline accelerated.

Outcomes in the smaller divisions were mixed, the broker highlights, with improvements in Superior Foods and IHG but slowing in the Total Tools and Liquor businesses. 

No change to forecast. Buy. Target unchanged at $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.57
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash's trading update at the FY25 AGM showed the pace of sales growth in the first 18 weeks fell short of market expectations for 1H26. Group sales, excluding tobacco, was 1.1% y/y in the first 18 weeks vs 4.7% in first 7 weeks, which was boosted by acquisitions.

UBS notes tobacco sales growth declined further to -32.1% y/y vs -28.8% in early weeks of 1H. Within divisions, Super Foods sales improved but it faces headwinds from competition and margin pressure.

The bright spot was continuation of recovery in IHG from 4Q25 and stronger on-premise liquor sales growth. The company announced a $7m increase in corporate costs for FY26, with the total expected -$41m compared with the broker's prior forecast of -$31.5m.

Another -$12m one-off costs related to integration and strategy was also announced. The broker cut EPS forecasts for FY26-27.

Buy. Target rises to $4.35 from $4.25 due to higher EV/EBIT mainly on hardware recovery.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.32
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Nufarm's 3Q25 trading update showed signs of stabilisation in net selling prices, continued volume growth and recovery in gross margins.

Net selling prices fell -1% y/y, sales volume rose 7% y/y to mark the fifth straight quarter of growth, and gross margins rose 300bps y/y. The broker highlights glyphosate values and Omega-3 indicators suggest cyclical troughs may be in the past.

No change to forecasts, but the broker observes the update suggests 2H25 EBITDA growth (ex-seeds business) is likely up 20-30%, following 17% y/y growth in 1H25.

Buy. Target price $3.55.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $1.27
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OBM as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Ora Banda Mining with an Accumulate rating and $1.20 target price, noting strong free cash flow and growth potential from the Riverina and Sand King underground mines.

Reserves of around 190koz imply to the analyst just one-to-two years of mine life at FY26 production guidance of 115–140koz, making drilling success critical.

Total resources are almost at 2moz, notes Ord Minnett, with recent high-grade intercepts at Sand King showing mineralisation extends well beyond the current footprint.

Exploration success and conversion of resources to reserves are seen as key catalysts, given historic drilling has been shallow and limited.

A potential expansion of mill capacity to 3mtpa is under review, with a decision expected by March 2026. Depending on costs and grades, the broker estimates this could lift valuation to between $1.40-1.90 per share.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.13
If OBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley’s 2025 proprietary survey of 1,764 Australian consumers highlights erosion in the Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group motor insurance duopoly. Combined share is running at circa 48% versus higher levels in prior years.

Suncorp is attracting new customers broadly in line with the market at 1.0 times, while Insurance Australia Group lags at 0.8 times, with NRMA underperforming, observe the analysts.

The broker points out more consumers are shopping around, with 54% seeking quotes compared to 47% in 2024, though switching remains low at 10%. it's noted Suncorp is winning customers from Allianz and challenger brands.

The broker keeps an Overweight rating and $25 target for Suncorp Group. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.15 Difference: $3.85
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.80, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a structural shift in supermarkets, with Coles Group continuing to outperform Woolworths Group operationally.

The broker notes Coles’ sales momentum has surpassed Woolworths for the first time in nearly a decade, underpinned by stronger supplier terms, promotions, loyalty, e-commerce and availability, reflecting market share gains.

Closing the e-commerce penetration gap with Woolworths could deliver around 80bps of annual sales growth for Coles over the next few years, predict the analysts.

By contrast, Woolworths faces the need to materially increase price investment beyond consensus assumptions, suggests the broker, which could create downside risk to earnings in FY26.

Morgan Stanley prefers Coles over Woolworths, citing supply chain efficiencies, sales momentum, e-commerce gains and maturing investments in retail media and loyalty, offering a lower-risk earnings growth profile in FY25–27.

The target for Woolworths Group falls to $29.30 from $30.50. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $27.93 Difference: $1.37
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.24, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources