Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ANZ as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

As Citi expects negative jaws (when costs grow faster than income) of around -2-4% over the next two years for Australian banks, and given share prices have rallied around 20% over the last six months, the broker now has Sell ratings across the sector.

The poor earnings outlook for banks will be exposed, suggest the analysts, now that interest rate cut expectations are being pushed out.

Citi's preferences in the sector (in order) are: Westpac, ANZ Bank, CommBank and National Australia Bank.

The broker's rating for ANZ Bank is downgraded to Sell from Neutral given a share price outperformance versus peers over the last three months. The $26 target is unchanged.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $28.25 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.02, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Hold (3) -

Alumina Ltd's March Q earnings improved on the prior quarter but Ord Minnett notes a sub-optimal performance for some time now. Strengthening futures curves for the alumina price lead the broker to increase its valuation.

It could all be academic given Alcoa's scrip takeover offer, and Ord Minnett suggests shareholders need do nothing right now.

Target rises to $1.35 from $1.16, Hold retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

As Citi expects negative jaws (when costs grow faster than income) of around -2-4% over the next two years for Australian banks, and given share prices have rallied around 20% over the last six months, the broker now has Sell ratings across the sector.

The poor earnings outlook for banks will be exposed, suggest the analysts, now that interest rate cut expectations are being pushed out.

Citi's preferences in the sector (in order) are: Westpac, ANZ Bank, CommBank and National Australia Bank.

For CommBank, the broker highlights retail banking is becoming progressively more challenging due to depressed mortgage spreads and now increasing deposit competition.

The Sell rating and $82 target are retained.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $111.86 Difference: minus $29.86 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Challenger is on track to deliver earnings expansion on unchanged margins, Ord Minnett suggests. The company is showing robust growth in lifetime annuity sales, a higher proportion of long-dated annuities and further reductions in product maturity rates.

Existing partnerships serve as blueprints for futures partnerships with super funds, the broker notes, while business partnerships are expected to widen the range of products offered, opening avenues for cross-selling.

Hold and $7.40 target retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $0.75
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Capricorn Metals has announced an updated ore reserve estimate for its Mt Gibson gold asset, lifting to 1.83m ounces from the maiden 1.45m ounces announced twelve months ago, accounting for more than 89,000 metres of drilling completed in that time

The company has also released a pre-feasibility study, which outlines improved key operational metrics and only modest increases to capital and operating costs says Bell Potter.

The mine now look sto produce 155,000 ounces annually over an eleven year mine life.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.50 from $6.15.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.26
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Underperform (5) -

Capricorn Metals has released updated reserves/resources for Mt Gibson along with an updated pre-feasibility study, showing reserves lifted 26% and mine life extended 2 years to 12 years, in line with Macquarie's forecasts.

The new PFS held no surprises but the broker has pushed out its first gold assumption to FY27 from FY26 given management commentary on permitting. Environmental approvals and subsequent development timing of Mt Gibson remain important.

Target falls to $4.70 from $4.80, Underperform retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

COG Financial Services has reported a softer March quarter result, with profit declining by -6% year on year and below Ord Minnett's expectations.

Underperformance largely relates to broker margin pressure and opex growth within the broking and aggregation business, with industry margins realigning to the higher base rate environment and the inclusion of the UFS/NFC acquisition.

While the margin compression surprised relative to forecasts, the broker sees on-going expansion of COG’s net asset financed volumes in a growing market.

COG’s aggressive Novated Leasing investment, supports organic profit growth of some 20% during the June quarter. Target falls to $1.76 from $1.90, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.55
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COS as Buy (1) -

Cosol has announced the acquisition of asset performance advisory firm Core Asset Co. The acquisition further strengthens Cosol’s advisory business, Ord Minnett notes, complimenting existing capabilities while further adding exposure to the new Agribusiness segment.

Core Asset will provide new capabilities in strategic planning and decision support, asset performance, turnaround, and operational readiness and will advance COS’s asset management service offering, the broker suggests.

Target rises to $1.27 from $1.21, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.27 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.26
If COS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DSE as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners leaves its forecasts for Dropsuite unchanged following a 1Q update showing "impressive" 31% year-on-year growth for US-denominated annual recurring revenue (ARR). The  broker has a FY24 target for growth of 30%.

The company added 40 direct partners and 220 indirect partners for the quarter, which the analysts explain compares to averages for the prior year of 32 and 220, respectively, per quarter.

Management reiterated key outlook statements.

The Buy rating and 41c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.15
If DSE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

Environmental Group's subsidiary business Baltec IES has been awarded a material contract win with Engie Group, for the engineering, supply and installation of a gas turbine silencer and exhaust system to Engie Group. 

With the contract carrying a $12.7m value, Bell Potter notes this brings Baltec's year-to-date contract wins to $35m and work in hand to around $40m. 

The broker believes this contract could be strategically important to Environmental Group, acting as a blueprint for the type of work the company could replicate as gas power become a more broadly accepted transition fuel.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 33 cents from 32 cents. 

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.065
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EV1 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners retains its Buy, High Risk rating and 40c target price for Evolution Energy Minerals following March quarter results. The company finished the quarter with $3.6m in cash.

During the quarter BTR New Material Group (the world’s leading battery anode producer) completed its 9.9% investment in Evolution Energy Minerals under terms of an agreement struck in 2023.

The two parties partnered to establish binding offtake agreements and vertically integrated downstream battery anode material operations. The broker is bullish for graphite sentiment and pricing in the short-term.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.32
If EV1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

A good overall quarterly result from Generation Development, says Morgans, with the company delivering record third quarter sales.

In line with the broker's expectations, the company reported a 50% quarter-on-quarter increase in investment bonds sales inflows, while net inflows lifted 14% quarter-on-quarter and 95% year-on-year.

Investment bonds funds under management lifted 9% quarter-on-quarter, which bodes well for the broker's estimated 11% growth over the second half. 

The Add rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.56 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.36
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following 3Q results, Shaw and Partners notes Genesis Minerals remains on-track for recently upgraded guidance of 130-140koz in FY24 at a cost (AISC) of between $2,300-$2,400/oz.

The company is well placed for investment in a ramp-up production in-line with management's outlook, in the broker's view, with $169m of cash and $12m of bullion at the end of March.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $2.30 target are maintained. Shaw considers Genesis Minerals a core portfolio holding and notes there is still plenty of room for the Gold sector to outperform.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.425
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources was significantly impacted by rainfall events in the March quarter, with the company reporting production of 64,300 ounces at an all in sustaining cost of $2,194 per ounce amid weather-driven damage to the road supply route to Gruyere. 

The company is now expecting full year production to be towards the lower end of guidance, noting production will also be impacted in the second quarter with production suspended until mid-April.

According to Bell Potter, to even meet the lower end of guidance Gold Road Resources can't afford to face any further disruptions.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.10 from $1.85.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.49
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Neutral (3) -

While Gold Road Resources had released some key metrics earlier, the quarterly report showed higher costs than Macquarie had forecast. Guidance is retained, but towards the lower end of production and the higher end of costs.

Gold Road previously noted that repairs to the main supply road are likely to "take some time", but has developed supply options via South Australia through the Northern Territory to provide alternatives.

A timely restoration of key supply routes remains important to reduce transport costs, in the broker's view. Neutral and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.09
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources had pre-released headline March Q metrics at the start of the month after significant rainfall impacted quarterly production from Gruyere. This limited access to the open pit, but also resulted in extended road closures.

This rainfall event will likely cause flow-on cost and production issues which Ord Minnett believes it has accounted for accordingly. As a result, the broker now sees Gold Road meeting the bottom end of 2024 production guidance but missing cost guidance.

Target falls to $1.90 from $1.95, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.29
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCW as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter suggests HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT has faced a sentiment headwind amid recent media attention on healthcare operators, with the stock selling off -20% over the last month.

The broker feels the current discount to value in the stock is excessive. In response to recent media attention, the company announced a trading update including a potential financial restructure of Healthscope, which consists of eleven assets. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.4
If HCW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Buy (1) -

A mixed bag result from ikeGPS Group from its FY24 updte. The company reported a -31% year-on-year revenue decline to $21.1m, but a return to transaction and group revenues quarter-on-quarter growth.

Subscription revenue of $10.7m was in line with the broker's forecast, but transaction revenue of $7.3m was a miss.

Despite this, the broker is encouraged by the company's recent contract win momentum, which alongside the return to quarter-on-quarter revenue growth supports the maintained rating.

The Buy rating and target price of 63 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.23
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Lower March quarter production and sales volumes for Iluka Resources resulted in a -15% revenue miss compared to Citi's forecast. Sales volumes for zinc, rutile and synthetic rutile missed the broker's forecast by -15%.

While China zinc demand remains subdued, European sentiment has improved, notes the broker.

The price target for Iluka Resources rises by 10c to $7.80. Citi's Neutral rating is maintained given Chinese property data continues to be weak with residential completions down -22% in the March quarter on the previous corresponding period.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $0.76
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources' March Q result was soft, Macquarie suggests, featuring with misses in mineral sands sales (-12%) and ilmenite (-2%). While early signs of improving market sentiment are emerging, Iluka has not changed its production plan with its Synthetic Rutile plant remaining offline.

The discussion with the Australian Government on additional funding support for Eneabba phase 3 is still ongoing.

Macquarie prefers Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)) for rare earths exposure.

Neutral and $7.00 target retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Iluka Resources' first quarter production of zinc, rutile and synthetic rutile of 87kt, missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus for 98kt and 100kt, respectively.

Sales of zircon were broadly in line with the broker's forecast, while sales of rutile and synthetic rutile missed estimates by Morgan Stanley and consensus.

Management noted customers remain reluctant to re-stock, but pointed to steady interest in the company's zircon sand offering, while there are also signs of a recovery in the titanium pigment market.

Equal-weight rating. Target $7.20. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $0.16
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production by Iluka Resources of 86.6kt for zinc, rutile and synthetic rutile fell short of forecasts by UBS and consensus for 122kt and 120kt, respectively.

Due to market discipline by management, explains the broker, sales of zinc, rutile and synthetic rutile fell by -31% quarter-on-quarter.

As volumes were lower on this supply discipline, 1Q revenue of $268m missed forecasts by the analysts and consensus for $326m and $304m, respectively.

Despite UBS adopting lower 2024 production and sales forecasts, the broker's incrementally positive view on the mineral sands outlook results in a $7.70 target up from  $7.50. The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $0.66
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

Morgans anticipates a weak first half result from Incitec Pivot, due to report in mid May, but does anticipate the company can beat market expectations. 

The broker is forecasting first half earnings of $245.2m and net profits of $158.0m, both reflecting a -56% decline year-on-year. Morgans points out consensus forecasts include a weaker fertiliser result, higher corporate costs and weaker earnings growth in explosives.

The broker notes ongoing speculation around the potential sale of the fertiliser business remains an overhang on the stock price, with media speculating Incitec Pivot will receive upwards of $1bn for a sale.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.94 from $3.15.

Target price is $2.94 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.21
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi is concerned by the accident-prone nature of the Karoon Energy business following a production downgrade for the Who Dat field in the Gulf of Mexico due to a bottleneck issue. However, it's felt the negative share price reaction in response is overdone.

The valuation impact from Who Dat is small given the broker's conservative assumptions, and because the issues involve a deferral of production, not an impairment of reserves.

The Buy rating and $2.75 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.65
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's March Q was slightly soft on underlifting and lower than expected Bauna oil pricing, Macquarie notes. 

Who Dat production guidance has been lowered -24%, prioritising higher-value oil production over gas, given extremely low Henry hub gas prices (preserving gas reserves for higher prices).

The broker looks through the Who Dat downgrade given no reserve impact from subsea manifold pressure management issues, and a large portion is time-shifting.

Target falls to $2.50 from $2.55, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.4
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Karoon Energy's 1Q production missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -17% and -8%, respectively, due to reduced production from Bauna (repairs) offset by a full quarter of Who Dat production.

Management reduced FY24 production guidance to 10.5mmboe from 11.2-13.5mmboe owing to lower Who Dat flow rates from two new wells and a lower facility performance given a priority for oil over gas production, explain the analysts.

Overweight rating. Target $2.60. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.5
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MRM as Hold (3) -

MMA Offshore is benefiting from a better than expected operating conditions in its second half says Bell Potter, based on a trading update from the company.

The update revealed "unprecedented levels of utilisation" says the broker, including 90% utilisation across the full fleet and 95% utilisation of larger multi-purpose vessels, underpinned by minimal downtime between short term contracts and numerous contract extensions.

MMA Offshore warns these results are likely not sustainable given its short-term contracting strategy.

The Hold rating and target price of $2.60 are retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If MRM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

As Citi expects negative jaws (when costs grow faster than income) of around -2-4% over the next two years for Australian banks, and given share prices have rallied around 20% over the last six months, the broker now has Sell ratings across the sector.

The poor earnings outlook for banks will be exposed, suggest the analysts, now that interest rate cut expectations are being pushed out.

Citi's preferences in the sector (in order) are: Westpac, ANZ Bank, CommBank and National Australia Bank.

The broker sees business banking headwinds for National Australia Bank as system business credit slows and it becomes more competitive, weighing on margins. Sell and $28 target retained.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $33.06 Difference: minus $5.06 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.02, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXT as Add (1) -

Morgans believes there is plenty more upside in NextDC's shares, with the company to-date having contracted just 15% of its planned data centre pipeline.

The broker notes this remaining 85% of planned and uncontracted capacity gives the company a huge growth runway, particularly as AI starts rolling into data centres and demand accelerates.

The broker estimates NextDC could reach a full valuation of $40 per share in seven years.

The Add rating and target price of $19.00 are retained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.74 Difference: $3.26
If NXT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.57, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

This update is simply an adjustment for the 10-for-one shares consolidation executed by Paladin Energy.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $1.2
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

This update is simply an adjustment for the 10-for-one shares consolidation executed by Paladin Energy.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

This update is simply an adjustment for the 10-for-one shares consolidation executed by Paladin Energy.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley only initiated coverage on Paladin Energy with an Overweight rating earlier in April. This latest update is simply a general adjustment to the 10-for-one shares consolidation.

New price target is thus $17.45. Sector view remains Attractive.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $2.15
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

This update is simply an adjustment for the 10-for-one shares consolidation executed by Paladin Energy.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $1.1
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

An as expected quarter production-wise from Pilbara Minerals, says Bell Potter, with the company reporting quarterly spodumene concentrate of 179,000 tonnes and sales of 165,000 tonnes. 

Unit costs increase 6% quarter-on-quarter to $675 per tonne, which the broker points out was due to ore sorter trials. The broker assumes operating cash flow of -$191m for the period, noting customer receipts were heavily impacted by -$218m pricing adjustments.

Pilbara Minerals management warns current market pricing and capital demands are unlikely to support a dividend in the current financial year.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.60 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

After further analysis over the weekend, Citi suggests March quarter results for Pilbara Minerals were more or less as expected with shipments weaker due to timing. The $3.60 target and Sell rating are maintained.

The broker's initial assessment last week was as follows:

Today's March quarter update for Pilbara Minerals proved in line with Citi's forecasts, despite weather and ore supply challenges. The P680 primary rejection facility achieved nameplate production capacity during the period.

Shipments missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -8% due to timing, with two March quarter shipments sent in April. 

While realised pricing of US$804/t also missed the broker's US$835/t estimate and the US$910/t expected by consensus, Citi believes the market will overlook this outcome and focus on a strong late-March quarter operational performance

Capex beat forecasts and the month of March was a new low for opex at $625/t, notes the broker. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Pilbara Minerals' March Q production, costs and realised prices were all in line with Macquarie, showing the company's resilience in overcoming stormy weather and a stormy market.

March exit rates and underlying plant performance were key positives, de-risking projects.

Pilbara's $1.8bn cash balance is able to weather US$700/t spodumene prices at the broker's forecast spend rate. Capital management may become a future focus.

Neutral and $4.20 target retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.37
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Pilbara Minerals' production and pricing in the 3Q met consensus forecasts though inventories rose again during the quarter due to softer shipments, and costs were worse than Morgan Stanley expected.

Unit operating costs missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -1.1% and -5.2%, respectively. The analysts note long-term cost improvements depend on an improvement in recoveries.

The $3.30 target and Underweight rating for Pilbara Minerals are unchanged. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Steady quarterly production from Pilbara Minerals in its third quarter, says Morgans, with the company reporting 179,000 tonnes of spodumene production and 165,000 tonnes shipped. 

For Morgans the real highlight of the quarter was achieving an 80,000 tonne production run rate in March, which the broker notes reflects a an annualised 960,000 tonne run rate.

The result was achieved through use of temporary mobile ore sorting equipment, which Morgans notes provides a preview of the capacity increase that can be expected with the new crushing and sorting facilities commissioned this quarter.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target price decreases to $4.10 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.27
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Spodumene production in the 3Q for Pilbara Minerals matched the prior forecast by UBS but sales missed by -7% as some shipments were delayed to April.

The company is track for the high end of FY24 guidance of 660-690kt, suggest the analysts, with UBS and consensus forecasting 678kt and 681kt, respectively.

The broker believes management is executing well on production and growth plans, and anticipates a fairly stable short-term price outlook.

While the target rises to $2.70 from $2.65, UBS considers the stock overvalued and maintains a Sell recommendation.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley alerts investors ResMed is set to report 3Q results this Friday.

The broker forecasts a gross margin (in line with consensus) of 57.6%, an increase of 70bps on the previous quarter and 160bps higher than the previous corresponding period.

The analysts key focus will be US device sales growth, mask sales growth, the gross margin and the impact of weight loss drugs.

The Overweight rating and $31.80 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $31.80 Current Price is $27.92 Difference: $3.88
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.38, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMD as Add (1) -

While Eli Lilly has reported trial results suggesting its weight loss drug improved the severity of sleep apnea in obese people by 50-60%, Morgans maintains its belief that this drug class will have a negligible negative impact on the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) market.

Positively for ResMed, the broker believes these drugs will likely only aid in expanding the addressable patient population given the large patient population that remains untreated.

The Add rating and target price of $32.82 are retained.

Target price is $32.82 Current Price is $27.92 Difference: $4.9
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.38, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SLH as Buy, High Risk (1) -

While Silk Logistics experienced challenging market conditions in H1, including a sharp decline in Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) container volumes through Australian ports, recent ports container data is promising, according to Shaw and Partners.

Container volumes have rebounded strongly since November 2023, highlights the analyst, which should benefit the company in H2.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $2.30 target are unchanged as the new data supports the broker's current investment thesis for Silk Logistics.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.75
If SLH meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses an in-line operational and sales result for Santos in the 1Q. All production and cost guidance for 2024 were maintained.

Management reported progress across key growth projects Barossa and Pikka (Alaska), with both remaining on schedule and budget, highlight the analysts. It's expected these projects will deliver meaningful organic growth to the forward earnings profile for Santos.

While the current capex phase is maturing, and Morgans considers Santos in great shape, a Hold rating is kept as these positives appear factored in. The target falls to $7.80 from $8.10.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

Following weaker-than-expected 3Q average daily traffic (ADT) data, Morgans lowers its target by -14c to $12.18.

Traffic rose by 0.9% across the group. Management noted the timing of Easter this year negatively impacted traffic by around -1.5%.

Forecast changes reduce the broker's valuation by 35 cps, offset by 12cps for updated CPI and interest rate assumptions, and 9cps for a valuation roll-forward. Hold retained.

Target price is $12.18 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades its rating for Vulcan Steel to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target to $7.90 from $8.10 on evidence the NZ consumer's spending power is weakening further and downside momentum is accelerating.

The broker also suggests risk for Australian volumes is biased to the downside.

Weaker-than-expected data in New Zealand suggest lags in monetary policy tightening are likely longer than the broker expected, which should result in more "net tightening" ahead.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $0.03
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

As Citi expects negative jaws (when costs grow faster than income) of around -2-4% over the next two years for Australian banks, and given share prices have rallied around 20% over the last six months, the broker now has Sell ratings across the sector.

The poor earnings outlook for banks will be exposed, suggest the analysts, now that interest rate cut expectations are being pushed out.

Citi's preferences in the sector (in order) are: Westpac, ANZ Bank, CommBank and National Australia Bank.

The broker's rating for Westpac is downgraded to Sell from Neutral given a share price outperformance versus peers over the last three months. The $22.25 target is unchanged.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $25.50 Difference: minus $3.25 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.20, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's March Q production was -2% below Macquarie but revenue was in line on higher liquids pricing.

13 of 51 Train 2 modules are in place for Scarborough and Pluto 2, and activity on site is ramping up. Platform hull and topside fabrication is ongoing in China and is critical, the broker suggests. Drilling and pipe-laying activities are making progress.

Value is supported on an implied US$59/bbl cost, the broker notes. The balance sheet is healthy post the Scarborough sell-down, so M&A is on the cards.

Target rises to $32 from $31, Neutral retained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $2.6
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.83, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Overweight (1) -

Following recent consensus downgrades, Morgan Stanley anticipates a subdued response to Woodside Energy's March quarter operational update. Management's FY24 production guidance is unchanged.

Production missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -5% and -3%, respectively, due to lower production from Bass Strait, Pyrenees and Pluto.

Sales were in line with the consensus estimate but missed the broker's forecast by -9% due to lower production and lower average realised prices.

Overweight rating. Target $35. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $5.6
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.83, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Buy (1) -

Woodside Energy is down -24% from its September high and is materially undervalued, Ord Minnett believes. The share price appears at odds with solid progress being made on growth projects.

The Scarborough/Pluto 2 project progressed to 62% complete in the March Q, up from 55% in the prior quarter. Initial LNG cargoes remain on schedule for 2026. In Senegal, the Sangomar project is 96% complete.

Following the Scarborough sell-down, Ord Minnett is confident Woodside can maintain an 80% top-of-the-range dividend payout. Buy and $45 target retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $15.6
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.83, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's 1Q operational result was in line with forecasts by UBS. There were strong average realised oil prices over the quarter (US$79/bb) helping offset the impact of -5% softer sales volumes than consensus was expecting, explain the analysts.

The broker raises its 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts by 1% and 3%, respectively, partly due to now forecasting a slower decline at the North West Shelf.

The 2024 EPS forecast falls by -3% reflecting lower production in the Gulf of Mexico at Atlantis and Shenzi due to natural decline and a third party pipeline outage over the quarter, explains the broker.

The Neutral rating and $30.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $1.4
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.83, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Whitehaven Coal's March quarter production has felt the impacts of Narrabri's issues, with the company disappointing Bell Potter's quarterly production expectations with 4.4m tonnes. 

Narrabri reported equipment failures and continued geological intrusions at its longwall, forcing unplanned maintenance stoppages. The broker notes inventories from Maules Creek were drawn on to boost group sales.

Elsewhere, Whitehaven Coal management intend to invest in enhancing dragline efficiency at Blackwater, with a selldown announcement expected by mid-2024. Given strong interest, the company aims to complete a transaction by the end of the calendar year.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.70 from $7.55.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 3Q production and sales missed Citi's expectations with the Narrabri underground mine again disappointing as
geotechnical issues persisted.

FY24 guidance was maintained for production and sales, but cost guidance is now towards the top end of the prior range.

Positively, the broker believes coking coal restocking will emerge following the recent price collapse, supporting prices over Q2 and Q3 of 2024. The outlook over the two subsequent quarters is also considered positive on heightened weather disruption from potential La Nina impacts.

The Buy rating and $9.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $1.12
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's March Q production and sales were mixed, Macquarie notes, with strong open cut volumes offsetting weak production at Narrabri. Group FY24 guidance has been maintained, skewed to open cut operations.

Softer-than-expected June Q Queensland targets were provided.

The acquisition of BHP Group's ((BHP)) coal assets has closed, shifting Whitehaven to a met coal producer (some 70% volumes) from a thermal coal producer. The balance sheet has shifted into a net debt position.

Outperform and $9.00 target retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $1.12
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 3Q production and sales met consensus forecasts and came in above Morgan Stanley's estimates. Costs were at the high end of guidance driven by Narrabri, but are expected to improve in Q4.

While Narrabri underperformed expectations, the broker expects this impact will be offset by a good performance in the Gunnedah Coal Basin in NSW and an 8% beat on production (versus consensus) at Maules Creek.

Overweight rating. Target $8.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.62
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

While "mixed" 3Q production for Whitehaven Coal had a negligible impact on Morgans forecasts, the broker highlights both the metallurgical and thermal coal markets are finding solid price floors.

The broker highlights the company's compelling leverage to more normalised conditions over the medium-term, and upgrades its rating to Add from Hold and raises the target to $8.90 from $7.75.

The analyst forecasts generation of $4bn in net cash by the end of FY26 (equivalent to nearly $5.00/share). In reaching this number, the broker applies the identical coal price cycle that occurred over FY22-23 to the years FY25-26, and hold dividends constant.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $1.02
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal’s March Q result has come in broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts for production and sales. The acquisitions of Blackwater and Daunia mean net debt has risen to $1.4bn -- only slightly higher than the broker's $1.3bn forecast.

The Group is now guiding to sales of 16.2-17.9Mt in FY24 with the Blackwater/Daunia outlook 12% better than the broker expected.

Target rises to $8.80 from $8.30, Buy retained.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.92
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

March quarter operational results were in line with forecasts by UBS and management maintained FY24 guidance. Realised pricing was better-than-expected.

Sales were slightly weak for the quarter on a Narrabri miss due to ongoing poor ground conditions, though Maules Creek continues to perform well, note the analysts.

The broker is increasingly bullish on the met coal outlook (now around 70% of the company's revenue) given supply constraints (particularly in Queensland) and a resilient demand outlook.

The target rises to $8.85 from $8.70 and the Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.97
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources