Australian Broker Call

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June 06, 2022

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
APX - Appen Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
HLS - Healius Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
TCL - Transurban Group Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
ACL  AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $5.03

Credit Suisse rates ACL as Outperform (1) -

The profit warning from Healius ((HLS)) has caused Credit Suisse to lower its estimates for Australian Clinical Labs. The broker forecasts a contraction in non-covid volumes of -7% in the second half.

Still, with the company having no imaging exposure and a higher proportion of pandemic earnings the broker does not believe it will be as affected by the current circumstances as is the case for Healius.

A slow recovery in the base business is expected in the subsequent half. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $6.05 from $6.15.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $1.02
If ACL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.67 cents and EPS of 91.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.48.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.70 cents and EPS of 30.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AKE  ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $11.87

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Allkem has updated regarding its pricing for lithium carbonate and spodumene. In an initial response, Macquarie notes the realised lithium carbonate price is 12% ahead of estimates, being US$40,000/t in the fourth quarter. The quarterly average realised price was 14% higher than previous guidance.

The company suggests customers continue to value security of supply, given the tight market. Meanwhile, June quarter spodumene concentrate prices are expected to be around US$5000/t and the company anticipate shipping around 38,000t in the quarter, -25% below Macquarie's estimates.

Hence, the outlook seems mixed. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $17.70 target.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $11.87 Difference: $5.83
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 65.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.21.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 106.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX  APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $6.40

Citi rates APX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

While the bid by Canadian telco giant Telus International was revoked, Citi sees validation for Appen's market position and the demand for labelled AI training data. The company is still considered to be an attractive takeover target.

Nonetheless, the broker lowers its rating to Neutral from Buy on earnings risk due to a weaker than expected start to the year and a material 2H earnings skew. The target price falls to $6.60 from $9.15.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $0.2
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.43, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 35.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.1, implying annual growth of 7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB  ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $30.79

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Despite the May decline in new car sales and the fall in Citi’s own ARB sales index, due to lower 4x4 and upper large SUV sales, the Buy rating and $46.63 target are retained for ARB Corp.

A strong order book and new car supply challenges are likely to result in performance remaining stronger for longer, according to the broker.

Target price is $46.63 Current Price is $30.79 Difference: $15.84
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.91, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 139.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 155.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

In the face of a -6.4% decline in new car sales in May and volatile sales in the 4WD segment, Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and $45 target price for ARB Corp.

Demand for new vehicles remains strong, explains the analyst, though supply challenges (largely from an ongoing semiconductor shortage) continue to impact.

The broker sees ongoing growth for 4WD markets and expansion of the store network domestically, as well as product penetration overseas.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $30.79 Difference: $14.21
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.91, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 154.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 82.50 cents and EPS of 166.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $81.20

Credit Suisse rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX has raised its prices. Credit Suisse points out the ability to consistently raise prices is evidence of a strong market position in listings.

The is one of the highest quality across its coverage but remains fairly valued in the broker's opinion. Pricing has been raised by 1-2% for annual, additional and subsequent listing fees, which is below fee increases from recent years.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $85 from $86.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $81.20 Difference: $3.8
If ASX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $81.39, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 234.00 cents and EPS of 260.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 258.2, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 231.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 240.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.5, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 245.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUA  AUDEARA LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $0.09

Morgans rates AUA as Speculative Buy (1) -

While Morgans makes no change to its $0.22 target price, the announced signing of Specsavers is seen as a significant opportunity. Specsavers has a high-exposure retail footprint and a greater exposure to younger customer traffic than your average audiology clinic.

Initially, the broker sees stocking levels limited to a handful of pilot stores before being rolled-out across the broader network.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained and the analyst sees significant upside once overseas expansion unfolds and gathers momentum.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.13
If AUA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.29.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $6.23

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Citi estimates the May decline in new car sales and strong demand in used cars should benefit Bapcor, which remains the broker's top pick in the sector. The company's products are the least discretionary and the balance sheet is estimated to be strong.

The Buy rating and $8.03 target price are maintained, given upside risk to FY23 earnings, explains the analyst.

Target price is $8.03 Current Price is $6.23 Difference: $1.8
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.70 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 39.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.0, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $46.76

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Following the merger of its Petroleum division with Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)), Morgan Stanley resumes coverage of BHP Group with an Equal-weight rating and sets a $46.20 target price.

While strong cash generation and around US$10.6bn in franking credits means potential for further dividends, buybacks or M&A, the analysts prefer Rio Tinto ((RIO)) for its relative exposure to aluminium. (Aluminium is the preferred base metal by the broker's commodity team).

Morgan Stanley forecasts a US$7bn off-market buyback in FY23.

Target price is $46.20 Current Price is $46.76 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.79, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1009.04 cents and EPS of 633.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 21.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 621.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 579.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 435.38 cents and EPS of 614.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 537.8, implying annual growth of -13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 426.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $9.65

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the outlook positive, as a third above-average consecutive winter crop shows signs of materialising.The broker believes 24.9mt is a good guide to what the 2022/23 east coast winter crop could be.

 An additional 2.8mt could earn GrainCorp $35m in EBITDA in FY23 based on the broker's analysis, which would in turn raise group net profit estimates by 15%.

The main variable is the amount of follow-up rain in the June-October growth period, which will determine the extent of growth and quality. Outperform rating and $11.10 target maintained.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $1.45
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 162.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.7, implying annual growth of 158.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.50 cents and EPS of 80.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.8, implying annual growth of -38.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD  G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $11.30

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Citi estimates the May decline in new car sales and strong demand in used cars should benefit G.U.D. Holdings' legacy auto businesses.

The broker reiterates its Buy rating and $15.60 target price and points out the recent acquisitions of Vision X and APG have reduced the company's internal combustion engines exposure and customer concentration.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: $4.3
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.55, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 77.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.1, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 52.50 cents and EPS of 108.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.0, implying annual growth of 35.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS  HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $3.80

Citi rates HLS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi lowers its target price for Healius to $4.30 from $4.70 following a trading update to the end of May that revealed a covid-induced slowing for core pathology and imaging.

Following recent share price weakness, the broker raises its rating to Buy from Neutral. This move comes despite the possibility of further weakness around FY22 results, the analyst explains, as the market comes to grips with permanently-lower PCR testing.

Citi expects expect FY24 to be a more normal earnings year.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.5
If HLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 53.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 538.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Healius has indicated earnings are around -12% below consensus, affected by lower volumes in its main business as well as labour constraints. Credit Suisse lowers FY22 EBIT estimates by -12%. FY23 estimates are reduced by -16%.

Despite pent-up demand in the system, all health care services in Australia are taking longer to recover from the pandemic. While this is in part stemming from patient behaviour it is also because of higher rates of staff absenteeism and labour shortages.

Credit Suisse remains confident that over time services will return to pre-pandemic trends giving the increase in chronic diseases. Neutral maintained. Target is lowered to $4.20 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.4
If HLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 51.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 538.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates HLS as Outperform (1) -

Despite the headwinds for Healius in the near term Macquarie continues to believe the medium-longer term outlook is favourable and there is valuation appeal at current levels.

The broker also assesses the share price is not factoring in much for the base pathology business and maintains an Outperform rating.

Earnings estimates are revised down by -3% for FY22, -6% for FY23 and raised 1% for FY24. Target is reduced to $5.10 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $1.3
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 538.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates HLS as Add (1) -

Following a trading update by Healius, Morgans lowers its sales and margin assumptions for FY22-24. Management confirmed challenging trading through May-22, with underlying earnings coming in around -20% below the consensus forecast.

The analyst points out forecasting has become difficult with ongoing covid impacts and continued PCR testing. The target price falls to $4.30 from $5.15 and the Add rating is maintained.

Nonetheless, the broker emphasises fundamentals remain strong, cost-outs are on-track and there is a growing backlog of routine care.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.5
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 538.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates HLS as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett cuts its FY23 EPS forecast for Healius by -14% on the expectation covid and flu disruptions for domestic health services will continue into the first five months of FY23.

The broker's earnings adjustment follows an update by management's showing a sharp drop in activity and higher costs, due largely to greater staff absences and unpredictable demand. Lower PCR testing volumes and margins also weighed.

Nonetheless, the analyst is comfortable volumes will recover in time and the company will deliver cost savings from its efficiency program, resulting in stronger earnings by FY24. The Accumulate rating is maintained and the target falls to $4.50 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.7
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 538.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $10.99

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Having studied Iluka Resources' Eneabba Phase 3 refinery final investment decision, Morgan Stanley now incorporates into forecasts maximum capacity at the refinery from March 25, 2022. Production from both the Eneabba stockpile and Wimmera are also included.

While the target price rises to $11.15 from $9.75, the broker maintains its Equal-weight rating as the rare earth strategy is thought to be fairly priced in to the current valuation. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.15 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: $0.16
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.07, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.10 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of 9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.3, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL  MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $3.19

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a structural shift from overnight to standalone day facilities and believes Medibank Private is best positioned to benefit. The target price rises to $3.70 from $3.50 and the Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker sees potential for restricted investment in overnight facilities partly as a by-product of the private equity bid for Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)). Also, with rising private health insurance participation, a capacity crunch is expected.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.51
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF  NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $7.35

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a structural shift from overnight to standalone day facilities and believes nib Holdings is well placed to benefit. The target price rises to $6.95 from $6.40 and the Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker sees potential for restricted investment in overnight facilities partly as a by-product of the private equity bid for Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)). Also, with rising private health insurance participation, a capacity crunch is expected.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of -2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of -0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $6.16

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy has cut FY22 energy markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance by -27% from the midpoint and withdrawn FY23 guidance as coal supply constraints to the Eraring power station hit earnings.

UBS reports Centennial Coal is under delivering on its contract due to geological and operational issues at Mandalong but says the company's gas portfolio is the best-leveraged to rising domestic gas prices.

EPS forecasts fall -5% to -25% across FY23.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $7.50 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $1.34
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 34.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $112.41

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Following REA Group's investor day, Citi leaves forecasts unchanged after weighing growth opportunities and the increased costs needed to fund them.

Management highlighted how new products and increased prices could drive near-term growth in the core listings business. India and potential upside from Property.com.au were also cited for long-term growth potential.

Nonetheless, the broker doesn't anticipate a turnaround in short-term sentiment, given the cooling housing market. The Buy rating and $153.50 target price are maintained.

Target price is $153.50 Current Price is $112.41 Difference: $41.09
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $133.43, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 161.60 cents and EPS of 306.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.4, implying annual growth of 26.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 180.60 cents and EPS of 341.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 349.2, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC  RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $76.96

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -

Following changes to Morgan Stanley's earnings forecasts, the broker sets a $69.80 target price, up from $62, and retains its Underweight rating for Ramsay Health Care. Industry View: In-Line.

Despite the $88.00/share offer from the KKR-led consortium, there's greater downside risk to the share price compared to upside from the offer price (if the bid succeeds), explain the analysts.

Should the bid succeed, and around 45% of private beds in Australia fall under private equity ownership, Morgan Stanley envisages lower future margins. Low capital expenditure into brownfield hospital sites is also considered a potential outcome.

Target price is $69.80 Current Price is $76.96 Difference: minus $7.16 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.16, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 106.50 cents and EPS of 181.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.6, implying annual growth of -35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 175.20 cents and EPS of 261.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.3, implying annual growth of 61.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $35.64

Credit Suisse rates SHL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers the Australian base business pathology revenue estimates for FY23 by -6%. Stronger covid volumes in Germany lead to limited change in earnings estimates for FY22, reduced by just -3%.

The broker reduces the target to $39 from $40 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $35.64 Difference: $3.36
If SHL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.23, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 97.75 cents and EPS of 301.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.3, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 102.64 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.6, implying annual growth of -42.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $14.70

Credit Suisse rates TCL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Toll roads may be considered inflation hedges yet Credit Suisse believes Transurban Group has had a strong run and investors should consider taking profits.

While rates have been hedged and the average cost of the company's Australian debt is 4%, when debt is refinanced the cost of debt is likely to increase, the broker also observes.

Target is lowered to $13.60 from $14.60 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $14.70 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.54, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 3.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 471.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 158.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.50 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 189.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TGR  TASSAL GROUP LIMITED

Aquaculture

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Overnight Price: $3.69

UBS rates TGR as Buy (1) -

UBS upgrades FY23 EPS forecasts for Tassal Group by 7% to reflect stronger salmon prices, and believes this could be a conservative estimate should recent trends hold.

The broker considers the market to be more "rational" since the JBS takeover of Huon Salmon.

The strong price environment should also mean the company resolves its cash generation issue, says UBS.

Buy rating retained. Target price ticks up to $4.10 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.41
If TGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $11.79

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Treasury Wine Estates guidance for its Treasury Americas division is probably conservative, following a review of quarterly results from the company's peer Duckhorn.

The results show an ongoing recovery for the on-premise and cellar door channels and resilience in the off-premise channel, explains the analyst. The Buy rating and $13.78 target are retained.

The broker reminds investors the Americas division represented 30% of the company’s FY21 earnings (EBITS).

Target price is $13.78 Current Price is $11.79 Difference: $1.99
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 55.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of 24.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates' peer NAPA's Duckhorn portfolio's third-quarter earnings revealed gains in market share and price-mix, suggesting the US on-premise market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the $15-plus a bottle price point, posits UBS.

The broker says NAPA expects a full recovery by late FY23 and considers the read-through to be positive for TWE Americas.

Buy rating and $13.50 target price retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.79 Difference: $1.71
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of 24.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VEA  VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $2.94

Morgans rates VEA as Hold (3) -

Morgans has increased confidence in Viva Energy's near-term earnings after concluding refining earnings (EBITDA) are much more leveraged to higher Geelong refining margins than increased costs.

The broker raises its target price to $2.90 from $2.70 and notes higher energy and procurement costs will partly offset and prevent any extreme earnings upside. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 92.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of -23.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS  WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $31.80

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has completed the acquisition of BHP Petroleum and a stronger balance sheet should provide growth impetus in the traditional as well as the clean energy sector, Macquarie asserts.

The broker also believes the company must guard its balance sheet in order to preserve funding for deepwater growth projects in the Americas.

If commodity strength persists over the next 6-12 months then Woodside is expected to be in a better position to assess whether surplus capital exists. Neutral rating and $29 target maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $31.80 Difference: minus $2.8 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.90, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 332.69 cents and EPS of 419.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 442.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 175.25 cents and EPS of 294.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 337.0, implying annual growth of -23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 257.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley describes Woodside Energy's acquisition of BHP Group's ((BHP)) Petroleum division as transformational and sees potential for a multi-year re-rate. The company is considered one of the best global plays on gas.

Even if the Russia/Ukraine conflict de-escalates, the analysts feel Europe will need to diversify its energy needs, which will keep energy prices elevated and underpin further demand growth for LNG.

The broker resumes coverage with an Overweight rating and sets a $40.00 target price. While near-term oil production will increase following the merger, it's thought the company's long-term future lies in gas. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $31.80 Difference: $8.2
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.90, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 390.61 cents and EPS of 455.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 442.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 355.70 cents and EPS of 444.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 337.0, implying annual growth of -23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 257.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ACL Australian Clinical Labs $4.76 Credit Suisse 6.05 6.15 -1.63%
AKE Allkem $11.64 Macquarie 17.70 17.70 0.00%
APX Appen $6.15 Citi 6.60 9.15 -27.87%
ASX ASX $79.95 Credit Suisse 85.00 86.00 -1.16%
BHP BHP Group $46.26 Morgan Stanley 46.20 N/A -
HLS Healius $3.82 Citi 4.30 4.70 -8.51%
Credit Suisse 4.20 4.65 -9.68%
Macquarie 5.10 5.20 -1.92%
Morgans 4.30 5.15 -16.50%
Ord Minnett 4.50 4.80 -6.25%
ILU Iluka Resources $10.68 Morgan Stanley 11.15 9.75 14.36%
MPL Medibank Private $3.17 Morgan Stanley 3.70 3.50 5.71%
NHF nib Holdings $7.38 Morgan Stanley 6.95 6.40 8.59%
ORG Origin Energy $6.23 UBS 7.50 7.70 -2.60%
RHC Ramsay Health Care $76.58 Morgan Stanley 69.80 62.00 12.58%
SHL Sonic Healthcare $34.70 Credit Suisse 39.00 40.00 -2.50%
TCL Transurban Group $14.44 Credit Suisse 13.60 14.60 -6.85%
TGR Tassal Group $3.75 UBS 4.10 4.05 1.23%
VEA Viva Energy $2.92 Morgans 2.90 2.70 7.41%
WDS Woodside Energy $32.85 Morgan Stanley 40.00 N/A -
WOW Woolworths Group $34.87 Macquarie 40.50 38.20 6.02%
Summaries
ACL Australian Clinical Labs Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.03
AKE Allkem Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.87
APX Appen Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $6.40
ARB ARB Corp Buy - Citi Overnight Price $30.79
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $30.79
ASX ASX Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $81.20
AUA Audeara Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.09
BAP Bapcor Buy - Citi Overnight Price $6.23
BHP BHP Group Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $46.76
GNC GrainCorp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.65
GUD G.U.D. Holdings Buy - Citi Overnight Price $11.30
HLS Healius Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.80
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.80
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.80
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.80
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.80
ILU Iluka Resources Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.99
MPL Medibank Private Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.19
NHF nib Holdings Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.35
ORG Origin Energy Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.16
REA REA Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $112.41
RHC Ramsay Health Care Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $76.96
SHL Sonic Healthcare Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $35.64
TCL Transurban Group Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.70
TGR Tassal Group Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.69
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Buy - Citi Overnight Price $11.79
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $11.79
VEA Viva Energy Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.94
WDS Woodside Energy Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $31.80
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $31.80
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

19

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

9

5. Sell

1

Monday 06 June 2022

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