Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -

In UBS' view, delivering earnings growth in FY24 remains challenging for ALS Ltd given weak performance from Nuvisan, and softer geochemistry sample volume demand.

The broker's forecasts assume FY24 earnings down -6%, and then growth in FY25/26 as exploration activity recovers.

ALS reports next Tuesday. Neutral and $12.10 target retained.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: $1.22
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.66, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

After reviewing Airtasker's (October 24) 1Q report, which was considered "resilient" given the tough operating environment, Morgans slightly raises revenue forecasts though an increase in the assumed risk-free rate leaves the 53c target unchanged.

Highlights in the quarter for the broker included positive operating cash flows and an improved revenue performance due to an increased overall take-rate. Marketplace revenue grew by 10.5% on the previous corresponding period.

The Add rating and 53c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.35
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 194% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees positive implications for Breville Group after reviewing 3Q results by overseas competitor De'Longhi, which upgraded 2023 guidance by 13%.

The broker now anticipates upside risk to consensus expectations for Breville's 1H from improving demand and margin tailwinds.

The Overweight rating and $29 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $22.93 Difference: $6.07
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CNI as Overweight (1) -

Following a 1Q update by Centuria Capital, Morgan Stanley sees a limited chance of material near-term growth for assets under management (AUM), given the funds management environment remains tough.

Overall capital inflows were $100m in the 1Q, below the $150m/quarter run-rate in FY23, notes the broker.

The REIT"s AUM remained stable in the 1Q compared to August. The broker suggests risks of further devaluations may be somewhat offset by the launch of some new initiatives by management including a new counter-cyclical fund.

The Overweight rating and $1.60 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.345
If CNI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Chorus has submitted its price-quality proposal to the Commerce Commission for the regulatory period spanning January 2025 through December 2028. Macquarie notes the company proposed total capital expenditure of -$1.5bn and operating expenditure of -$842m. 

The broker expects the final outcome, to be determined by the Commerce Commission, to wind up broadly in line with its current assumptions and forecasts for the period. 

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, reflecting the recent -11% share price tumble, and the target price decreases to NZ$8.32 from NZ$8.95.

Current Price is $6.88. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

Through acquisition over recent years, Charter Hall Retail REIT now holds a $1bn petrol station portfolio, accounting for 23% of its total assets. 

Macquarie considers the portfolio segment to be viable longer-term, with 81% of assets in metropolitan areas, allowing for strong repositioning opportunities into retail. 

While the broker remains attracted to a resilient tenant base, it describes medium-term operating earnings per share as "anemic" given interest rate headwinds. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.17 from $3.61.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia's first quarter volumes were a miss at -3% versus UBS' expected 4% growth, despite a strong recovery seen in Syd/Melb, which suggests underperformance in other states.

Cost guidance of mid to high single digit growth was maintained, which is seen as positive.

UBS still expects house price growth to be in positive territory for the rest of the year due to unexpected strength of migration, and increasing demand from Chinese buyers, despite rate hikes and tax hikes driving selling among investors.

Target falls to $3.80 from $4.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.31
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Sell (5) -

Shares in Elders are back on the move (upwards) and Citi analysts suspect some market participants are banking on an inflexion ahead for the industry.

Citi is not buying into the narrative and instead sees further downside risks, also backed up by its own channel checks. Demand for rural products as well as livestock prices seem poised for downside disappointment, the broker believes.

Citi is of the view the upcoming FY23 release is likely to see management issuing cautious outlook statements. The FY23 update is scheduled for November 13th.

Sell. Target $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ELD as Buy (1) -

With Elders set to release its full year result next week, Shaw and Partners is expecting the company to report earnings of $167m. The company's latest guidance range, which was downgraded in August, is for earnings between $165m and $175m. 

The broker points out challenging agricultural conditions have persisted over the last year, but expects the company will reiterate long-term targets of 5-10% earnings growth per annum through the cycle.

Shaw expects to see commentary as to how Elders aims to add value for shareholders. The Buy rating and target price of $9.00 are retained. 

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $2.75
If ELD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

After reviewing recent reporting by several key listed electric utility clients of ikeGPS Group, Bell Potter notes no material changes to capex programs or performance expectations.

The broker remains positive on ikeGPS Group's medium and long-term opportunity, supported by a forecast for around US$410bn of investment into the North American 5G, fibre and rural broadband rollout.

The Speculative Buy rating and 88c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.38
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Incitec Pivot is scheduled for FY23 release on Monday, 13 November, and Citi analysts are positioned for underlying profit after tax of $534m, which is below the market consensus forecast.

Higher assumed prices for ammonia have pushed up the broker's forecasts for FY24. Target price is unchanged at $2.90 but following a weakening in share price, Citi's rating is hereby upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Given ABARES is forecasting winter crop production to decline -34% with yield falling by -31% versus a year ago on below-average rainfall, Citi prefers to remain cautious.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.02
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Key takeaways from Jumbo Interactive's AGM for Morgan Stanley include materially softer year-to-date ticket sales than the previous corresponding period, largely due to lower jackpots.

More positively, future pricing power was highlighted, suggests the analyst, by relatively unchanged play behaviour by customers despite meaningful price increases.

The broker believes the market will focus on the year-on-year growth rate and consensus expectations may be lowered.

Overweight rating. Target $21. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $13.80 Difference: $7.2
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.71, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Macquarie Group's Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) division accounts for around 20% of group revenues.

The Overweight rating and $202 target are left unchanged, despite the broker's US gas price dispersion index for the December quarter trading down by -22% year-on-year, while a -25% fall for the March quarter is anticipated.

Overall, the analysts see upside risk to commodities forecasts. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $202.00 Current Price is $163.46 Difference: $38.54
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $181.16, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Following the release of National Australia Bank's full year result, Citi is seeing little to justify what it is a relatively fully valued stock. The broker believes the bank faces a more difficult revenue equation than peers based on the result.

A cash earnings result of $7,731m was a -2.5% miss to the broker's expectations, primarily from a miss on lower markets income. There was little to suggest improvements ahead, with the bank suggesting net interest margins would continue to face competitive pressure.

The Neutral rating and target price of $27.50 are retained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.87, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie felt National Australia Bank's CEO summary of a sector-wide profitability uplift in FY23 as a "blip" as apt, and is anticipating the bank's earnings to decline by -13% over FY24, alongside similar declines from peers. 

Lower deposit benefits, relative to peers, but results suggest business deposits grew ahead of peers and Macquarie expects this reflects National Australia Bank is ahead of peers on its mix change journey. 

Despite considering the bank an operationally stronger franchise than other banks in Australia, Macquarie sees limited scope for outperformance near-term. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $28.00 from $28.50.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.87, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Lower non-interest income weighed on National Australia Bank's 2H pre-provision profit, which came in below the consensus forecast, explains Morgan Stanley.

Operating trends and management's outlook commentary corresponded with the broker's expectations, though FY24 cost growth guidance exceeded the consensus estimate. The net interest margin (NIM) fell by -6bps half-on-half, in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast.

The analysts suggest the return on equity (ROE) metric has peaked and predict pre-provision profit will decline materially in FY24.

The bank remains Underweight-rated. The target eases to $26.50 from $26.60. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.87, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank's 2H earnings declined by more than Morgans forecast though a higher final 84cps fully franked dividend spoke of the resilient asset quality and capital position. The $1.5bn buyback was also continued.

Compared to H1, pre-provision operating profit and cash EPS declined by -10% and -13%, respectively.

The net interest margin (NIM) fell by -6bps to 171bps, broadly as expected by the analyst, as home loan competition and higher deposit costs offset the benefit of higher interest rates.

Management expects the more challenging H2 environment will continue into FY24 but sees an easing of competitive pressures in around six-to-twelve months' time.

Due to a lower NIM and higher cost outlook, Morgans lowers its EPS forecasts by -3-4% across FY24-26 and reduces its target to $28.23 from $28.82. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $28.23 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.87, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

FY23 results for National Australia Bank were largely as expected and Ord Minnett raises its target to by 3% to $31 on the time value of money partly offset by a minor reduction in short-term profit forecasts.

The broker's profit forecasts were negatively impacted by a lower estimate for the net interest margin (NIM) and higher assumed operating expenses. The FY24 NIM is expected to fall below 1.7% from the 1.74% at the end of FY23.

Profits for H2 fell by around -10% on H1 as increased competition outweighed the benefit of interest rate increases, explains the analyst.

A final 84c dividend brought the FY23 payout to $1.67 per share, fully franked. The broker's Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: $2.06
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.87, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

National Australia Bank delivered an in-line set of numbers, UBS suggests, with trends highlighting the sustained competitive pressures and cost inflation within the sector.

Net interest margin fell -6 basis points and volume growth was weaker, as NAB slowed its mortgage lending throughout the half given reduced profitability.

UBS retains Sell and a $26.00 target, with earnings cuts offset by the ongoing buyback. NAB is trading at a two year forward PE of 12.9x compared to its ten-year historical average of 11.6x.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $2.94 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.87, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes TV operators are focusing on expenses given advertising conditions remain subdued, highlighted by an -8% year-on-year decline in total market revenue in the September quarter.

Management at Nine Entertainment expects total TV costs in FY24 will be slightly down year-on-year, even after a step-up for rugby league and cricket coverage costs.

The broker likes the company's proven ability to flex costs and utilise efficiency gains across the group without compromising the competitive position in terms of audience and revenue.

The Accumulate rating and $2.80 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.88
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

Nine Entertainment' s trading update was relatively in line with expectations but UBS is watchful of December quarter macro
trends, given both Nine and peer Seven West Media ((SWM)) have indicated very little sign of improving momentum likely for the rest of the year.

Positively, Nine has lowered its cost growth guidance for Total TV as a result. Data shows Nine's market share to be relatively resilient in the first four months albeit slightly lower year on year.

Stan continues to grow subscribers despite cost of living pressures, suggesting to the broker streaming has become a staple.

Target falls to $2.18 from $2.28, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.26
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NOL as Buy (1) -

NobleOak Life's exceptional growth and market share gains have been highlighted by the recent June Plan for Life risk report. Shaw and Partners notes the company's premium inflows over the year to June grew 24.5%. 

The result compares with market leaders Tower Australia and Zurich, whose premiums grew 4.9% and 6.6% respectively. The broker considers NobleOak Life a well run company delivering impressive results in an improving industry, and expects it will continue to take market share.

The Buy rating and target price of $2.85 are retained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $1.15
If NOL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Amid a string of downgrades from Nufarm's global peers, Citi expects crop protection lag to remain a focus, particularly as drier conditions emerge in Australia Pacific. 

The broker also points out distributors remain focused on de-stocking given high levels of channel inventories.

Citi does point out carinata and omega-3 represent meaningful upside potential for Nufarm, with demand levels supported by a number of structural tailwinds beyond the near-term. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target price decreases to $4.65 from $6.90.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.17
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica closed out the year with earnings of $698m, a -2% miss to Citi's forecasts. The company is already guiding to an improved FY24, despite turnarounds in the first half which are likely to impact on production, reflecting strong underlying demand. 

The company announced a final ordinary dividend of 25 cents per share, bringing the full year dividend to 43 cents per share. 

The Buy rating and target price of $17.00 are retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: $1.52
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

A strong result from Orica, says Macquarie, that demonstrated commercial discipline with earnings per tonne lifting 22% year-on-year. The broker is expecting to see continued focus on profit per tonne improvement over the coming year, supported by likely strong demand.

The company has flagged the coming year will be a period of heavy turnaround activity, and Macquarie is estimating a -$30-40m earnings impact in the first half. The broker forecasts 8% and 12% earnings per share growth in FY24 and FY25. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $17.70 from $17.80.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: $2.22
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Orica's FY23 result came in just ahead of the consensus estimate and was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast. It's felt management will continue to deliver solid, relatively certain earnings growth over the next two-to-three years.

Operating cash flow (OCF) improved to $899m from $536m in FY22, driven by higher earnings and cash inflows from lower working capital, explains the broker.

Compared to the previous corresponding period, earnings (EBIT) for APAC, EMEA, North America and Latin America grew by 24%, 24%, 11% and 1%, respectively. Digital Solutions earnings grew by103% to $54.3m and was a standout, in Morgan Stanley's view.

Overweight. Target $19.50.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: $4.02
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Orica's FY23 result was a slight beat against Morgans forecasts but the main highlight was "extremely strong" 2H cashflow.

FY23 partly benefited from strong demand, tight market conditions, higher ammonium nitrate prices and a lower Australian dollar, explain the analysts.

The return on net assets (RONA) metric in FY23 was 12.6% and management has set a new three-year RONA target of 12-14%, up from last year's target of 10.5-13%. The company also expects EBIT in FY24 will increase on FY23.

The target rises to $16.80 from $16.23 and a Hold rating is kept on valuation though Morgans would be a buyer of the stock on any material share price weakness.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: $1.32
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica delivered a strong FY23 result, UBS suggests, with earnings up 21% year on year. Operating performance was underpinned by recontracting pricing benefits, sustained mining demand, and an uplift in technology adoption.

This despite global macro volatility, adverse weather, and manufacturing down-time. Operating cash flow was materially above market expectations, with Orica focused on optimising its inventory holdings, and further supported by a lower ammonia price.

FY24 guidance of growth over FY23 is retained. Buy retained, target rises to $18.85 from $18.80.

Target price is $18.85 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: $3.37
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group's Q1 release seems to have "missed" Citi's forecasts at the revenue level, but the broker, upon initial glance, puts this down to revenue recognition timing; a similar deferral had shown up in competitor Domain Holdings Australia's ((DHG)) earlier market release.

Beyond this "timing" issue, Citi maintains REA Group is on track for a solid H1 performance, with management today effectively upgrading listings growth to 3-5% for FY25, up from a flat growth forecast earlier.

Costs went up by 10%, below previously expressed guidance, but management suggests the pace will pick up for the remainder of the financial year.

Growth in India proved in line with Citi's forecast for 25%, but the broker suggests growth seems to be slowing in adjacency services (i.e. Housing Edge) in that country.

Neutral. Target $159.

Target price is $159.00 Current Price is $159.59 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Underperform (5) -

Scentre Group reported "solid" leasing metrics in the third quarter, with Macquarie highlighting improvement in releasing spreads to 3.6% and portfolio occupancy reaching 99.1%. 

The broker points out re-leasing spreads have underperformed large retail peers. Further, Macquarie expects slowing specialty sales growth to weigh on operating metrics moving forward, having grown at just 1.2% in the quarter, and key categories slowing materially. 

The Underperform rating and target price of $2.33 are retained. 

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

As part of Scentre Group's 3Q update, management reaffirmed FY23 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) of between 20.75-21.25cpu, which compares to the 21.2cpu consensus forecast, notes Morgan Stanley.

The 1Q result was overall in line with the broker's expectations. Despite a slowing in retail sales, it's felt persistent CPI escalations will support rents into 2024 and Black Friday/Christmas should provide a boost into Q4.

Overweight. Target $3.10. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.53
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SWM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes TV operators are focusing on expenses given advertising conditions remain subdued, highlighted by an -8% year-on-year decline in total market revenue in the September quarter.

The broker's long-term TV earnings (EBITDA) margin estimate for Seven West Media remains at 18.5% given the company can abandon its -$60m cost-out initiative should it compromise TV revenue or revenue share in any way.

The analyst believes Seven is materially undervalued and shares are trading at an around -50% discount to the broker's fair value target price of 55c. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.28
If SWM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 49.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

A miss in international revenue, alongside gross margins that proved -30 basis points lower than anticipated, saw Xero disappoint Citi's forecasts with a first half year earnings result of NZ$205m, up 65% year-on-year. 

The company added 122,000 new Australian subscriptions in the period, and delivered better-than-expected free cash flow at NZ$107m.

However, it suffered its weakest half since FY17 on subscription adds in the UK, partly due to management of un-deployed inventory.

The Buy rating and target price of $135.50 are retained.

Target price is $135.50 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: $35.03
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

A softer than expected first half result from Xero, attributed to subscriber growth, has left Macquarie cautious on the company's average revenue per unit growth strategy pivot.

The broker noted the result demonstrated a marked shift in drivers, as the Australia & New Zealand business drove top-line growth, but Macquarie remains concerned about top-line growth looking forward given peer discounting and headwinds to subscriber growth. 

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $87.00 from $119.00.

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: minus $13.47 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

While H1 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) for Xero were slight misses, Morgan Stanley also points to better free-cash flow delivery and positive average revenue per user (ARPU) growth.

The broker also highlights strong free cash flow (FCF) of NZ$106.7m, which lifts the rule of 40 metric to 34% from 32%. A review of the US business also shows a focused growth opportunity with a measured cost base, in the analysts' view.

Overweight. Target $125. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: $24.53
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates XRO as Hold (3) -

Xero's 1H result was in line with Morgans expectations but marginally below consensus forecasts. The broker attributes the subsequent share price fall to decelerating subscriber growth momentum (including in North America) and disappointing UK subscriber growth.

While revenue rose by 21% year-on-year, once again average revenue per user (ARPU) and the A&NZ region were largely responsible, explain the analysts. 

A&NZ and International subscription growth slowed by -7% and -11%, respectively, compared to the 2H of FY23. Management's FY24 outlook commentary was unchanged, according to the broker.

Morgans raises its target to $105 from $101 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: $4.53
If XRO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Lighten (4) -

Following Xero's 1H results, Ord Minnett raises its target by 4% to $78, largely due to lower-than-expected churn in the International division. Average revenue per user (ARPU) was slightly stronger than anticipated, while subscriber growth proved in line.

Ord Minnett considers shares of Xero currently materially overvalued and believes the company will struggle to grow subscribers and revenue. An increasing share of sales and marketing expenses is being allocated to recover from customer churn.

The broker also feels higher prices are not compensating for increasing customer acquisition costs in the International segment. Lighten.

Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: minus $22.47 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Although Xero's first half revenues were a slight miss, "earnings-capex" and free cash flow significantly outperformed expectations due to lower R&D intensity, UBS notes. To that end the broker sees yesterday's sell-off as overdone, and reiterates its Buy rating.

UBS remains positive on the growth and profitability outlook over the medium term, driven by A&NZ and the UK, with further potential upside from accelerated growth in Platforms over time.

The broker remains cautious on Xero's ability to penetrate the US market given the strength of the incumbent, but expects investment in the US to be disciplined.

Target falls to $139.30 from $143.50.

Target price is $139.30 Current Price is $100.47 Difference: $38.83
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources