Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

As management at a2 Milk Co declared it would be using air freight to rebuild stock following the recent supply disruption, Citi has been reviewing infant formula air freight volumes to China from Christchurch.

Consistent with the company's strategy, volumes have more than doubled over August/September compared to the same period in FY23, note the analysts.

Buy rated with a $7.04 target.

Target price is $7.04 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $1.15
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AAM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Management at AuMega Metals (formerly Matador Mining) has completed an upsized private placement of $17.7m at an average price of 6.7cps.

Proceeds, along with the existing cash balance, leave the company well-funded to continue exploration work for FY25, believes Shaw and Partner.

Buy, High Risk. The broker's target falls to 16c from 19c after incorporating the dilutionary impact of the share placement.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.105
If AAM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 191% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights the seemingly large gap between Audinate Group's 1Q results and internal expectations when FY25 guidance was delivered in August.

A weak 1Q was driven by customer inventory normalisation and soft demand, explains the broker. The company is run rating at around US$28.8m for FY25 gross profit compared to the around US$42m expected by consensus.

Overweight. Target $10.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $1.54
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.58, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AD8 as Hold (3) -

Commenting after Audinate Group's 1Q results missed expectations, Shaw and Partners highlights the opaque outlook for a return to growth.

The trading update implies to the analysts the business is tracking below management's target to achieve slightly lower US$ gross profit growth in FY25. Management now expects Q2 will match Q1 and the 2H will be modestly stronger than H1 (magnitude unclear).

In retrospect, the broker suggests cash break even in FY24 was only achieved due to unusually positive customer ordering patterns pulling forward demand.

The Hold rating is unchanged, and the target slips to $9.00 from $9.30.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $0.04
If AD8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.58, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Neutral (3) -

UBS maintains its faith in the longer-term fundamentals of Audinate Group but recognises near-term uncertainties need to be worked through after a "soft" 1Q update by management.

The analysts always felt Q1 would be the weakest quarter due to prior over-ordering by customers. Lower gross profit guidance was the result of ongoing challenges including softer demand, shorter lead times and increased inventory, explains the broker.

Incremental positives, according to UBS, include Dante certification and training programs remaining strong, and 2H new AVIO products and a premium version of Dante Virtual Scorecard are expected to contribute to 2H25 earnings.

The $12.20 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $3.24
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.58, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Evidence of an expanded ARB Corp range of products on the 4 Wheel Parts (acquisition just completed) website is a positive, suggests Citi, as it should lead to greater brand awareness in the US. 

In addition, the company's products are featuring front and centre on the ORW website, note the analysts. ARB's ownership in ORW increased with the 4 Wheel Parts acquisition.

This greater exposure is also supportive of the broker's view of an improving outlook for ARB Corp's Export business.

Target $50. Buy.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $42.19 Difference: $7.81
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.30, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes Aroa Biosurgery reported 2Q25 4C. Cash receipts from customers rose 25% on the previous corresponding period with six-month receipts up 28% to NZ$37.7m.

The company did not announce sales data and contrasts to the soft June quarter for US marketing partner Tela Bio.

Consensus forecasts for 1H25 revenue growth to NZ$35m are too cautious, the analyst believes, suggesting 9.7% growth. 

For some indications, Tela Bio reports quarterly revenues on Nov 7 and Aroa Biosurgery reports 1H25 on Nov 29.

Bell Potter does not change earnings forecasts. Buy rating and 90c target are maintained. 

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.32
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Morgans observes a "solid" 2Q25 cash flow report for Aroa Biosurgery including growth in receipts of 35% on a year earlier with operating cash flow of NZ$1.2m.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance of growth in sales of 26% at the midpoint and positive EBITDA. 

The analyst highlights the company's US marketing partner, Tela Bio is due to announce 3Q34 results on Nov 7 and Aroa Biosurgery's 1H25 results are expected on Nov 29.

No changes have been made to earnings forecasts. Target price remains at $1.05 and Add rating.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.47
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners describes a "battery bonanza" for developers and suppliers as coal-fired power plants are shuttered faster than originally planned.

This trend suits Australian Vanadium which is utilising Vanadium Flow Batteries to be used in conjunction with lithium for grid scale storage.

The broker draws attention to NSW setting a new target of 12GWh of storage by 2034, on top of the existing target of 16GWh by 2030.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating with an 8c target price.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.064
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates B4P as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners raises its target for Beforepay Group to $2.15 from $1.75 after management delivered a 1Q net transaction margin of $7m, beating the broker's $6m forecast.

The analyst also points to very strong credit quality for the period. Ultimately, this quality had an outsized impact on the broker's target price given earnings forecasts are very sensitive to improved default rate assumptions.

The broker now models a 1.1% annual average default rate across the forecast period, down from 1.4%.

The Buy, High Risk is maintained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $1.24
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

Following Bellevue Gold's in-line 1Q production, UBS suggests unchanged FY25 guidance remains on track.

The lead indicator of development rates is ramping-up, highlights the broker. These rates refer to the speed at which access tunnels and/or other necessary underground infrastructure are created to access the ore body.

The Buy rating and $1.65 target are unchanged.

Following the equity raise in July, UBS notes investors are looking forward to the debt restructure which should see no principal
repayments until 2027.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.08
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLX as Buy (1) -

At the Beacon Lighting AGM, management stated stores sales momentum from last fiscal year has continued into FY25. Trade and eCommerce sales are also experiencing similar "momentum".

The update is consistent with FY24 results, Ord Minnett observes. In FY25 the analyst highlights five new store openings including the recent Port Stephens store.

No changes to earnings forecasts. Buy rating remains with $3.35 target price.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.46
If BLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

In an early reaction to today's 2Q results by Champion Iron, Citi lowers its FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -9% due to minor changes in sales, pricing and costs during Q2.

Sales fell by -3% quarter-on-quarter as forest fires impacted production and railway operations, explains the broker.

Until there is a structural shift in rail capacity which is limiting volume, the analysts caution C1 cash costs will remain elevated at around CAD77/t.

The Buy rating and $7.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: $1.01
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses key progress and setbacks across the portfolio highlighted by management at CSL's virtual R&D day were overall neutral.

Setbacks included the six-month delay in US approval for Garadacimab and the end of the Kcentra Ph3 trial in trauma due to challenges in running the trial in its current form.

Positives included the US filing in the 1H of 2025 for fibrinogen concentrate in acquired deficiency and the movement into PH2 in Q1 of 2025 for nebulised Ig (CSL787) in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis.

Buy rating with $345 target price unchanged.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $294.13 Difference: $50.87
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes some key points from CSL's R&D day. 

Immunoglobulin yield initiatives are noted as going well, while garadacimab approval has been delayed with US approval now expected in 1H2025.

Macquarie observes the discontinuation of some trials while new trials have started with indications for Hitrenza, Kcentra and clazakizumab.

Outperform and $330 target retained.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $294.13 Difference: $35.87
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights, as is normally the case, CSL's R&D had no commercially relevant updates.

The broker noted garadacimab's potential US approval has been kicked back by at least six months. Morgans stresses this is one of only a "handful of setbacks". 

CSL has launched 21 programs as part of a broad clinical pipeline cutting across major therapeutic areas and platform technologies. Plasma programs to advance yield remain important.

The broker points to further approvals from EU for hemophilia B gene therapy and other approvals for garadacimab, an mRNA covid vaccine, and cell-based influenza vaccine for over 50-year-olds.

Morgans states Behring continues to be the major earnings driver with cost management and unrealised demand across all divisions.

No changes are made to earnings forecasts. Add rated with a $330.75 target price.

Target price is $330.75 Current Price is $294.13 Difference: $36.62
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett views the R&D investor day as disappointing from CSL including the delay in US approval for its gardacimab therapy into March quarter of 2025.

The broker does not account for potential individual values on the 21 products currently in trial for CSL, although some allowance is made.

There are no changes to earnings forecasts. Accumulate rating and $320 target retained.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $294.13 Difference: $25.87
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Citi doesn't anticipate any concerns or surprises for investors around the CEO transition plan for Domain Holdings Australia due to the current CEO's six-year tenure where the company lost market to REA Group ((REA)) over the last two years.

Strong listings in major markets Sydney and Melbourne are expected to underpin a robust result for 1Q25.

Citi believes the new CEO has an opportunity to increase audience growth from Nine Entertainment Holdings ((NEC)) to Domain Holdings Australia, whereas the existing leadership has concentrated on "Only on Domain" experiences as a marketplace.

Buy rating with target price $3.65.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.55
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DSE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes a "strong" 3Q2024 result from Dropsuite. The analyst highlights the results had no surprises.

Annual recurring revenue was in line with expectations, growing 33% on the year and up from 30% growth in 1H2024.

The company remains well funded with around $26m on the balance sheet.

The broker retains a Buy rating with an upgraded target price to $4.09 from $3.78.

Target price is $4.09 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.3
If DSE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DSE as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Dropsuite's 3Q trading update exceeded Shaw and Partners' forecasts. Noting evidence of accelerating annual recurring revenue (ARR), the analysts highlight 27% year-on-year growth supported by a combination of solid execution and industry tailwinds.

Gross free cash flow was $500k, up from $300k in Q2, while cash costs increased by only -$100k, observes the broker.

Management reiterated the 2024 outlook. Buy, High Risk rating. The target rises to $4.80 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $1.01
If DSE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

Citi notes a positive take out from Fletcher Building's AGM with the outlook for volumes maintained at a decline between -10% to -15%, and revenue some circa 3% above 1H25 expectations.

The company has guided to an increase in activity levels for residential sales in 2H25. The analyst estimates the level around 900-100 units for FY25.

Some -NZ$180m in cost savings are expected. Buy rating with NZ$3.30 target price.

Current Price is $2.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FND as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Findi with a Buy rating and $7.52 target price.

Findi is a fintech and is highlighted by the analyst as one of India's largest non-bank ATM operators. Its core ATM business expanded around 30% in FY24, generating operating cash flow of $28m.

The company has also received approval to operate its own ATMs.

Growth is expected from a more forthright what label expansion, changes to interchange fees from the regulator and a share repurchase plan with a possible listing on the Bombay Stock Exchange in 2026.

The broker applies a country "risk premium" to the stock, resulting in a target price of $7.52. Buy.

Target price is $7.52 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $1.72
If FND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Citi describes a disappointing 3Q for Iluka Resources with mineral sands revenue of $232m compared to the $306m expected by the analysts. 

Zircon rutile and synthetic rutile production also disappointed on weak Chinese demand with upcoming Q4 zircon sales subject to seasonal weakness, highlights the broker.

For 2024 forecasts, Citi lowers rutile pricing by -3% and zircon by -5% (and -5% for 2025).

Buy. The target falls to $7.00 from $7.30.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $1.02
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Iluka Resources reported "mixed" 3Q2024 results with a rise of 19% in production of zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile which was better than consensus.

Sales of 96.6kt were below consensus estimates by -22% due to a delay in synthetic rutile shipments until 4Q2024.

The broker continues to like the mineral sands market and expects an update on Eneabba phase 3 project before the end of 2024.

Unchanged target of $7.10 and Outperform rating.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $1.12
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Add (1) -

Morgans notes 1Q25 cash flow report from ImpediMed. The US installed base added 28 units versus 23 units in the June quarter and the company reported a decline of -7% in cash receipts because of forex impacts and lower rest--of-the-world sales. 

North American revenue improved slightly, the broker notes, while net cash outflow was essentially constant at -$4.8m from the previous quarter.

A rise in annual recurring revenue of 5% underpins ongoing momentum for the core SOZO business, Morgans assesses.

Speculative Buy rating remains. Target price falls to 19c from 20c.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.133
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPD as Speculative Buy. (1) -

Ord Minnett notes ImpediMed reported 1Q25 results which were essentially in line with expectations.

The broker observes a rise in US SOZO sales of 28 compared to 22 in 4Q24 and growth of 21% in annual recurring revenue on a year earlier.

As the company's cash burn recedes, Ord Minnett remains positive on the stock's outlook as payor coverage in the US continues to expand.

.Buy rating retained. Target price slips to 13c from 15c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.073
If IPD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 128% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTM as Hold (3) -

Morgans previews the September quarter results for lithium miners and marks-to-market earnings for a US$850/t spodumene price assumption.

No changes to earnings forecasts. Hold rating and $8.60 target unchanged with Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) bid to acquire the company at an all cash price worth around $8.60 per share.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $0.37
If LTM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTR as Hold (3) -

Morgans previews the September quarter results for lithium miners and marks-to-market earnings for a US$850/t spodumene price assumption.

Liontown Resources is due to report its first spodumene shipment in the quarter. Morgans is not expecting any surprises from the operating result since the ramp up in Kathleen Valley commenced.

The company is due to report 1Q25 results on Oct 31 and the broker expects management to offer FY25 guidance including news on the ramp up and cost estimates.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price declines to 80c from $1.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.94, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Meteoric Resources has added further high-grade ore from its Figueira lease which increases the mineral resource output by 4-10 years of the 20-year mine plan for the Caldeira project.

High financial barriers to entry exist for rare earths. The broker estimates the company's capex at -US$403m, about 2.5 times greater than the current market capitalisation. An equity capital raising would be highly dilutive, Ord Minnett  states.

Before funding, the company needs an off-take agreement. For Meteoric Resources, the Speculative Buy rating and 20c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.1
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 220.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Citi opens a 30-day short-term positive view on Mirvac Group given VIC stamp duty relief and potential sales for the Harbourside project in NSW.

In the broker 's view, Mirvac Group's future sales and residential revenue are supported by 1Q results showing a 32% year-on-year rise for residential sales and 111 conditional sales in WA and QLD.

Temporary stamp duty relief in VIC on apartments and townhouses should also benefit near-term sales, note the analysts.

The current tailwinds will likely benefit FY26, notes Citi. Management maintained FY24 earnings guidance.

Neutral rating. The target rises to $2.25 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.06
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Mirvac Group reconfirmed FY25 guidance of 12c-12.3c at 1Q25 update subject to the completion of 2000-2500 residential settlements and tying down capital partners for key development projects, Macquarie highlights.

The group sold 346 lots in 1Q25 compared to 262 lots a year earlier with an uptick in Victoria of 220 settlements against 192 in 1Q24.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts by 162% in FY25 and 114% in FY26 as the definition of operating EPS is aligned with Mirvac Group. There were no changes to underlying earnings.

Target price is raised to $2.46 from $2.07 with an unchanged Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.27
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Management at Mirvac Group has reaffirmed FY25 EPS guidance when releasing a "solid" 1Q update, according to Morgan Stanley.

Residential sales rose by 32% on the previous corresponding period and there were 220 settlements. Office transactions are gathering pace, note the analysts, with over $3bn of sales across Sydney/Melbourne CBD so far in 2024.

The analysts now estimate there are between 1000-1100 contracts on hand for FY25, plus 387 conditional sales in QLD/WA, compared to FY25 guidance for 2000-2500 settlements.

Target $2.45. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.26
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Buy (1) -

The progress evident in Mirvac Group's 1Q operational update encourages UBS. While it's felt consensus expectations are too high, solid growth is anticipated into FY26 due to a subsiding capitalised interest headwind and low-margin residential rolling-off.

For Q1, residential exchanges rose by 33% on the previous corresponding period while conditional sales rose by 40% versus FY24, highlight the analysts.

The Buy rating and $2.29 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.29 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.1
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Morgans previews the September quarter results for lithium miners and marks-to-market earnings for a US$850/t spodumene price assumption.

The broker is anticipating a "mixed" quarterly report from Mineral Resources. Wodgina production is expected to report below consensus and Mt Marion in-line. Realised lithium prices are expected to decline notably on a quarterly basis.

Iron ore is forecast to meet expectations and both operating costs and capex pushed into 2H25.

Quarterly results are due on Oct 31.

Hold rating and $39 target price unchanged, although Morgans explains for more medium-term investors, the current price offers value with increased deleveraging expected in 2025 as Onslow ramps to full capacity.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $37.87 Difference: $1.13
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.14, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

Mineral Resources' directors have started an investigation into tax evasion claims against CEO and founder Chris Ellison, which Ord Minnett believes raises questions around the company's governance and risk profile.

Combined with the issues on performance of Wodgina lithium and Onslow iron ore, the analyst raises the equity risk premium on the stock.

A higher cost of capital results in a lower valuation for Mineral Resources. The broker lowers the target price to $42 from $54 and retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $37.87 Difference: $4.13
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.14, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reviews its investment thesis for Medibank Private.

While it will be challenging for the business to re-rate amidst a constrained pricing backdrop, the broker notes management has outperformed peers in the consistent delivery of "best in class" margins. It's expected this outperformance can be sustained.

Equal-Weight rating. The target falls to $3.80 from $3.84. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.13
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

The risk reward scenario on offer at nib Holdings is wider than for health insurer peers, highlights Morgan Stanley.

On the one hand, the valuation is not expensive, and upside awaits should margins and earnings growth stabilise. On the other hand, the sudden margin normalisation in the 2H of FY24 highlights greater risk than peers in the analysts' view.

The target falls to $6.40 from $7.35 as the broker updates its modeling for the FY24 results released back in August. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.45
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

Citi observes National Storage REIT's reconfirmed FY25 guidance of a minimum EPS of 11.8c per share at today's AGM with underlying earnings above $163m.

Rises in underlying rates are highlighted as helping revenues from June 2020 to September 2024 while acquisitions continue to drive growth. The REIT has made nine purchases at a cost of -$95m and has a development pipeline of 418k sqm.

Buy rated with a $2.70 target price.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.19
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for Netwealth Group to $27.50 from $23.50 and downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation. The share price has risen by 80% in 2024.

The lower rating in no way diminishes the broker's regard for the group. In fact Netwealth is considered one of the best software businesses in Australia. Management's execution is praised, and structural tailwinds still prevail, note the analysts.

Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $27.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.50, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Morgans previews the September quarter results for lithium miners and marks-to-market earnings for a US$850/t spodumene price assumption.

A strong result from Pilbara Minerals is expected by the broker with costs ahead of expectations but achieved spodumene prices to be lower than forecasts.

The analyst highlights ongoing volatility in both lithium prices and share prices but retains a longer-term conviction to the market which was viewed as reconfirmed with Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) interest in Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)), soon a successful acquisition.

Pilbara Minerals is the broker's top pick in the sector with a strong balance sheet and reliable Pilgangoora operations.

Add rated. Target price $3.30.Minimal changes to EPS estimates from mark-to-market.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.52
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Praemium reported steady flows for its SMA product in 1Q25 and lower outflows in Powerwrap.

The broker believes the result was better than expected due to the reduced Powerwrap outflows.

Funds under administration rose 3.5% to $29bn over the quarter and are up 30.3% on a year earlier.

EPS forecasts are raised by the analyst between 4% to 6% over FY25 to FY27.

Target price lifts to 63c from 55c. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes management at Stockland has reaffirmed FY25 guidance for funds from operations (FFO).

Following regulatory approval and settlement of the 12 master-planned communities (MPCs) acquired from Lendlease Group ((LLC)),the company will provide FY25 FFO guidance, observes the broker.

Management cited “positive momentum” in the 1Q as sales from the MPC business met expectations. Strong rental growth and high occupancy for the retail and logistics assets were also highlighted.

Hold. The target rises to $5.20 from $5.15.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

While there was no change in management's production and cost guidance for FY24, Citi highlights "strong" production and sales (17% and 19% beats, respectively) in the September quarter for Stanmore Resources.

The broker raises its production forecast to be at the top of 2024 guidance.

Buy rating. Target rises to $3.40 from $3.35. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.39
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Stanmore Resources reported "solid" 3Q2024 production. Morgans explains there is the potential for the company to exceed 2024 guidance by 3%-5%.

The analyst believes Stanmore Resources is a strong possibility for a consortium participating in the Anglo American Coal auction which is due in late November.

Interestingly, Morgans highlight another bid for Ango American is more likely than coal divestment with Glencore believed to possess more advantages against other bidders.

Target price eases to $4.05 from $4.10. Add rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.04
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes record production for Stanmore Resources in 3Q2024 of 3.8mt while net debt came in slightly higher than expected.

The broker notes the company is now expected to beat 2024 guidance with 13.8mt including production of 3.3mt in 4Q24.

Buy rating unchanged. Target rises to $4.40 from $4.20 on the back of higher production from Poitrel.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.39
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -

While Transurban Group's 1Q update revealed traffic growth normalised in Australia, growth in North America was strong. US toll roads traffic in the US rose by 9-12%, with a further 5-7% toll uplift, resulting in toll revenues growing at high double digits.

Regarding the Australian numbers, the analysts highlight Melbourne has been an outlier given a slower return to work and construction impacts. Queensland was also negatively impacted by the government’s 50 cent public transport fare initiative.

Buy. Target $14.20.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $1.15
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie considers 1Q25 traffic update from Transurban Group as "disappointing" which is attributed to soft economic conditions. In Sydney particularly, road works remained a headwind.

Melbourne traffic fell -1% and Brisbane's growth with Gateway and Legacy Way are highlighted as well below both population and vehicle registration growth.

The analyst highlights US asset performances remain strong.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -2.1% in FY25 and -2.5% in FY26 with a decline in target price to $12.67 from $13 due to the change in estimates.

The broker highlights the dividend payout will be 100% to reach FY25 guidance of 65c per share. Neutral rating remains.

Target price is $12.67 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Following Transurban Group's 1Q update with management reaffirming guidance for a FY25 dividend of 65 cents, Morgan Stanley expects a muted share price reaction.

Referring to recent publicity around cost of living and enforecement policies, the broker believes social licence concerns for the group are manageable.

Target $13.33. Equal Weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.33 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $0.28
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

Transurban Group's 1Q25 update revealed some weakness in traffic with Melbourne down -1% compared to Brisbane up 1.3% and Sydney rising 1.9%, notes Morgans. North America results were mixed.

Morgans adjusts forecasts for average daily traffic and a slight rise in the CPI outlook.

The analyst forecasts a compound average growth rate in EBITDA of around 9% for FY25 to FY28 which is at the lower end of consensus for FY25-FY26 and above for FY27-FY28.

Hold rating and $12.65 target price.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Accumulate (2) -

Transurban Group's 1Q was weaker-than-expected by Ord Minnett as traffic growth of 1% year-on-year missed the necessary run-rate to meet the 2% anticipated by consensus for the 1H.

The broker attributes the miss to disruption caused by ongoing major construction works in Sydney and Melbourne. Victoria's weakening economy and the impact from people still working from home are other contributing factors, suggests the analyst.

Accumulate. Target falls to $13.20 from $13.40 after the broker lowers forecast traffic numbers.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $0.15
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter previews the upcoming FY24 results for TechnologyOne due out on Nov 19. The broker forecasts growth in revenue of 15%, profit before tax up 17%, the profit before tax margin up 74bps to 30.4%, below guidance at 100bps.

Annual recurring revenue is expected to show growth of 19%, near the upper end of guidance. Final dividend per share estimated at 12.79c, up 8% with a special flat 3c dividend. Both 65% franked.

Management is anticipated to reiterate FY30 annual recurring revenue target of $1bn, with in excess of $500m for 1H25, the broker states.

No change to the recently upgraded target price of $24. Hold rating.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.42 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.09, suggesting downside of -17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

Citi suggests weakness in the Temple & Webster share price ahead of the FY24 AGM could provide investors with an enhanced buying opportunity.

The broker anticipates the AGM update will be consistent with Citi's forecast for 25% sales growth in FY25.

Perhaps referring to Nick Scali's ((NCK)) recent higher-than-expected freight costs, the analysts notes Temple & Webster is less exposed to shipping given its predominantly dropship model.

Dropship refers to when a customer places an order, the supplier ships the product directly to the customer.

Buy rating and $13.50 target price.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.40 Difference: $1.1
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.59, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi observes September quarter bottled red wine exports by volumes to Asia advanced 210% on the previous quarter, a lift from a rise of 144% in the June quarter.

The broker explains China is the main driver of demand which is a positive for Treasury Wine Estates and viewed as meeting the AGM commentary last week.

Excluding China, bottled red wine exports continued to decline by -3% in the September quarter. Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam were the softest, down -31%, -25% and -30%, respectively. Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia markets grew.

Citi upgrades the stock to Buy from Neutral because of the decline in share price. No change to earnings forecasts.

Target price $12.97.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $1.37
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Wine export data for the 12 months to September show the total export value rising by 34% to $2.39bn, helped by an uplift in demand from mainland China following the removal of tariffs, explains Morgan Stanley.

Presumably relevant to Treasury Wine Estates' premium offering (the broker offers no view), the price points of $50-100 and over $200 (A$/litre) experienced the highest growth of 157% and 159%, respectively.

Overweight. Target $14.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $3
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie stresses 2024 continues to be a "tough transition year" for Viva Energy with 2024 convenience store guidance well below previous expectations where tobacco continues to be challenged, alongside a weaker consumer.

The analyst points to fuel sales at marginally lower than forecast with additional expected synergies of $30m over the next three years.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -3% in 2024 and increases EPS by 1% in 2025.

Target price lifts to $4.15 from $4.10. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $1.49
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a muted market reaction to Viva Energy's 3Q update. The Geelong Refining Margin of US$6.40/bbl compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus for US$9.50/bbl and US$7.76/bbl, respectively.

The broker hopes "weak" first time Convenience & Mobility (C&M) earnings (EBITDA) guidance of between $230-260m (a -5% miss versus the consensus forecast) will be offset by higher future synergies.

Sales volume aligned with the analysts' estimate driven by demand from defence, aviation, network growth, and improved retail volumes.

Target $3.33. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.67
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

While the revelations around CEO Richard White's personal life will remain an overhang until a resolution becomes clearer, Citi highlights negative media reports are unlikely to impact near-term earnings.

Neutral rating. Target $138.

Target price is $138.00 Current Price is $107.62 Difference: $30.38
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.96, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources