Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has taken into account updated assumptions on forex, interest rates, and other factors for its a2 Milk Co earnings forecasts, which results in a lift in FY25/FY26 net profit after tax of 4%.

The broker adjusts for lower interest rates in FY26 and FY27, and the company has cash of over NZ$1bn, which results in a decrease in net interest revenue assumptions. An assumed devaluation of the NZD against the CNY (Yuan) is also factored in.

Target price rises to $7.85 from $7.25. No change in Hold rating.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $8.01 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights China's revision of its marriage registration rules is viewed as a net positive for a2 Milk Co and is the first revision since 2003.

The change should allow people to be married more easily and support the long-term birth rate. Under the revision, mainland couples will no longer require their household registration books to get married outside the permanent residence area.

The broker also notes local governments have introduced new incentives, with increased paid marriage leave and money for women marrying under 35 years.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $8.20 target.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.01 Difference: $0.19
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a Buy rating on Aussie Broadband, seeing no major pivot in strategy ahead of the company's Investor Day (scheduled for today).

The broker expects management to reinforce its existing strategic pillars while focusing on unlocking synergies from its recent segment consolidation and Symbio integration.

Aussie Broadband is forecast to lift market share further in 3Q FY25, with momentum driven by demand for higher-speed plans and continued strength in its Residential division.

Citi expects commentary around two key catalysts in June and September --NBN pricing reforms and speed-tier adjustments-- which could accelerate net adds. Earnings forecasts and the $4.80 price target remain unchanged.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $1.14
If ABB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Amplitude Energy's Orbost gas plant has been running at full capacity of 68Tj/day since last week and has averaged 58Tj/d in 3Q25. The company is now well placed to meet the top end of the 65-72/Tj/d guidance for FY25.

The broker lifted the EPS forecast for FY25 by 19% and by 7% for FY26 on higher production.

The broker has also evaluated gas policy of the Opposition, which claims it would lower prices towards $10/Gj at Wallumbilla, Queensland. This works out to around $13/GJ Victoria price and is still high enough for the company to invest.

If Labour returns to power, the broker sees some upside to its $13/Gj gas price forecast.

Target price cut to 25c from 28c on lower Otway gas price estimate of $13/Gj vs $14/Gj and increased project risk. Outperformed retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.085
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating on Santos ((STO)) and Ampol and has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

Ampol is due to report on April 17. The broker lowers EPS estimates by -7% for FY25.

Overweight rated. Target price slips to $30 from $31. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $20.75 Difference: $9.25
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.53, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AW1 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes American West Metals' new agreement with Ocean Partners Holdings, which includes an equity investment in the company, project financing, and offtake rights.

Under the agreement, Ocean Partners will subscribe to US$2m worth of American West's shares at 4.2c/share and provide finance of up to 80% (US$40m) of initial capex for the development of the Storm Copper project via a three-year secured loan. 

Ocean Partners is also granted an exclusive right to 100% of the copper and silver from the project. The company also announced it will receive US$2.8m from Taurus Mining Royalty Fund under the Storm royalty deal.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 20c. 

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.16
If AW1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -21% for FY25 and -17% for FY26 for Beach Energy.

Target price falls to $1.28 from $1.44. Underweight. Sector call: In-Line.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.125
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes used car demand in Brazil remains robust despite recent rate hikes, with sales up 17% year-on-year in March, which supports Webmotors’ monetisation model.

Citi expects Webmotors to grow 28% in constant currency over 2H25, only slightly down from 30% in 1H25. The valuation reflects a blend of DCF and SOTP methods, with Webmotors, Australia and Korea all trading at a premium to global peers due to stronger growth and positioning.

Forecasts are unchanged. Citi maintains a buy rating on CAR Group with a price target of $42.00.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $31.27 Difference: $10.73
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.40, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -

The Bell Potter analyst believes the positives far outweigh the negatives for Catapult International, with the company expected to report a robust result in May, along with the launch of new products and ongoing improvements in cross-selling.

A weaker AUD versus the USD is a negative factor, as is the impact of tariffs on the business.

There are no changes to the earnings forecasts. Buy rating and $4 target price retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.97
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects Champion Iron to report 4Q25 production of 3.5mt, in line with consensus but lower shipment of 3.5mt, -3% below consensus.

The broker's revenue forecast is -9% below consensus on lower sales and weaker prices, which results in C$126m EBITDA, -15% lower versus consensus.

The broker is forecasting a delay in the sell-down of iron ore concentrate inventory. FY25 EPS estimate cut by -30%, and FY26 lifted by 8%.

Outperform. Target cut to $6.10 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $2.16
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Centuria Industrial REIT, the broker believes benign FFO growth will prevent the share price from rising towards NTA in the short to medium term.

Hold maintained. Target price cut to $2.85 from $3.55.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.04
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COF as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Centuria Office REIT, while the broker sees a prospect for share price to converge with NTA, it sees fewer catalysts in the short to medium term.

The broker cut FFO/unit forecasts by -10% across FY26-28 on soft rental growth, vacancy downtimes and higher interest costs.

Hold retained. Target cut to $1.05 from $1.35.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes its 1Q25 forecasts for Coronado Global Resources are mixed vs consensus with 7% higher revenue but in-line on sales.

The broker forecasts US$105m higher net debt during the quarter on weaker earnings and capital investment in organic growth projects.

Neutral rating. Target price 30c.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.07
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting upside of 204.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights copper prices have fallen to US$3.92/lb on global uncertainties, leading to sell-off in copper equities.

The broker notes Capstone Copper is trading on an implied copper price of US$3.25/lb, which makes it an opportunistic buy.

Ahead of 1Q25 result, the broker is forecasting revenue of US$497m and EBITDA of US$182m, which is -2% and -1% below consensus, respectively.

The broker has also pushed back the timeframe for the Santa Domingo sell-down due to macroeconomic uncertainty to 1Q26 from 3Q25.

Outperform. Target price $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $6.17 Difference: $5.83
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting upside of 72.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers what is currently being discounted in CSL's share price for US tariffs, highlighting the US represents around 50% of the group's revenue and around 35% of the group's revenue is generated from non-US markets.

The analyst also highlights around 60% of the cost of goods sold is plasma collections and around 90% is originated in the US, with circa 10% from non-US markets.

Manufacturing represents around 40% of cost of goods sold, with an assumed circa 75% conducted in non-US markets, which implies around 35% of the US revenue is conducted in non-US markets, the broker concludes.

Morgan Stanley explains pharmaceutical products were excluded as part of the reciprocal tariffs, and more notable blood fractions, immunological products, and vaccines for human design were highlighted as exempt under Annex II.

No change to $313 target price and Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line. The broker calculates in all different modeling tariff scenarios, the discounted cash flow valuation is above the current share price, around $234.

Target price is $313.00 Current Price is $233.62 Difference: $79.38
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DGT as Add (1) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Digico Infrastructure REIT, the broker reckons the negative sentiment towards data centres is overdone.

Add retained. Target price cut to $5.10 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $2.78
If DGT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 120% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 99.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DTL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has upgraded Data#3 to Buy from Neutral following a -13% share price pullback, which it views as unwarranted given the company's strong fundamentals and limited macro exposure.

UBS has cut FY26 earnings forecasts by -9% due to softer government and enterprise IT spending and changes to Microsoft incentives, but still expects long-term EPS growth of 10% annually through to FY29.

The broker sees Data#3’s defensive revenue base (55% government, 70% recurring) as a key strength and believes its valuation is attractive versus a 5-year PE average of 27x.

The price target is unchanged at $8.10. Forecasts for FY25-27 have been lowered.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: $1.19
If DTL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.17, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXC as Add (1) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Dexus Convenience Retail REIT, the broker believes the prospect for the share price to rise towards NTA remains as valuations went up in the half.

The broker lifts FFO/unit forecast for FY25-27 by 9%, 10%, and 11%, respectively.

Add. Target lowered to $3.20 from $3.25.

Transfer of coverage to Leo Partridge.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.4
If DXC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXI as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Dexus Industria REIT, the broker sees the possibility of share price rising towards NTA.

However, in the short to medium term, the analyst expects the share price to be weighed down by development risks at Jandakot and dilution from the likely sale of the business and technology portfolio.

Downgrade to Hold from Add. Target price cut to $2.60 from $3.16.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.13
If DXI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DYL as Buy (1) -

Deep Yellow announced the delay in its final investment decision for the Tumas project in Namibia until there is a recovery in the spot uranium price, Bell Potter highlights.

Management also updated the market on definitive feasibility study assumptions, with capex rising by US$62m to US$474m and first-year opex up from US$4.25/lb to US$38.60/lb, and an achieved uranium price of US$82.50/lb.

Higher process plant infrastructure lifted capex assumptions, offset by lower pre-production costs.

Opex was negatively impacted by lower grade reserves at 298ppm versus 340ppm, and the time frame to first production has been pushed out to 24 months from 18 months. A final investment decision is expected within the next 12 months.

No change to Buy rating. Target price falls to $1.45 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.665
If DYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 72.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DYL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Deep Yellow announced a deferral of final investment decision for Tumas project until uranium price improves enough to support the development.

The company's updated guidance for capex shows an increase to US$474m, up US$62m. C1 costs estimate is also up by US$4.25/lb to US$38.60/lb.

Morgans has revised forecasts to incorporate the new details and has pushed back development by 12 months.

Target price cut to $1.56 from $1.73. Speculative Buy remains.

Target price is $1.56 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.775
If DYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 72.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Garda Property, however, the broker doesn't see a catalyst for the share price to converge to NTA in the short to medium term, despite the sale of North Lakes.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Add. Target cut to $1.15 from $1.59.

Transfer of coverage to Leo Partridge.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.055
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a buy rating on Goodman Group and sees the stock offering attractive growth at a reasonable price, despite recent underperformance.

The de-rating followed a large capital raising, macro uncertainty, and investor concerns about data centre demand, but Goodman now trades at cheaper multiples relative to its history and peers, the broker observes.

Citi highlights strong underlying double-digit EPS growth, backed by data centre and industrial demand, with upcoming updates in April and August flagged as potential catalysts.

The $40 target price is supported by both DCF and sum-of-the-parts valuation. Forecasts are unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $26.07 Difference: $13.93
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.57, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GMG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Goodman Group, the broker reckons the negative sentiment towards data centres is overdone.

With the share price retracing to the March 2024 level, the broker sees a buying opportunity, noting Goodman Group is one of the highest-quality exposures among its REIT coverage.

Upgrade to Add from Hold. Target price cut to $35.30 from $38.00 as the broker moderated earnings growth expectations.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $26.07 Difference: $9.23
If GMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.57, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights GQG Partners saw US$1.8bn net inflow in March, taking its 1Q25 net inflow to US$4.6bn. The broker's forecast for 1H is US$6.1bn net inflow.

The broker notes the US$1.8bn March net inflow compared with the monthly average of the last 12 months of US$1.7bn. However, this was offset by weaker markets, resulting in a net headwind of -US$0.4bn.

EPS estimates for FY25/26/27 cut by -3%/-4.9%/-4.9%, respectively on performance, flows and market movements.

Outperform maintained. Target cut to $2.90 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.965
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights ongoing share and earnings pressures on asset managers due to markets. The broker remains cautious on Magellan Financial ((MFG)), although views most of the negative news as discounted in the share price.

The analyst prefers GQG Partners, with the company trading at a lower valuation and having achieved more stable funds under management growth and higher inflows.

The target falls to $3.07 from $3.40. Overweight rated. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.07 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $1.135
If GQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HCW as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT, the broker believes the business value depends on the lease negotiations with Healthscope.

Hold. Target price 95c.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.1
If HCW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, the broker sees a strong possibility of share price rising towards NTA mainly on net property income growth.

Add retained. Target cut to $1.33 from $1.36 as the broker lowered FFO/unit forecast by -1% in FY26-27.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.165
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HMC as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of fund manager HMC Capital, the broker believes the share price is fairly valued based on the performance of its various strategies.

Hold. Target cut to $5.30 from $10.50

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.71
If HMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.42, suggesting upside of 90.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Citi has upgraded both HUB24 and Netwealth to Buy, despite trimming near-term forecasts due to equity market softness.

The price target for HUB24 has been lowered to $71.50 from $84.80, and for Netwealth to $26.50 from $30.70, reflecting reduced FuA expectations and lower valuation multiples (see also yesterday's Report).

Forecasts for FY25-27 earnings were revised down across both companies, though Citi sees revenue margin tailwinds from increased cash balances and trading volumes.

While market conditions may weigh on short-term flows, Citi expects structural growth and cost optionality to support margins.

Earnings forecasts for both have been downgraded, though FY25 EPS for Netwealth was marginally lifted due to a lower tax rate.

Target price is $71.50 Current Price is $57.41 Difference: $14.09
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.99, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has upgraded Insurance Australia Group to Buy from Neutral, while trimming its price target to $8.30 from $8.50, citing improved value and potential upside to second-half insurance trading ratios and cash earnings.

The broker questions whether the insurer's 32.5% reinsurance quota share (RI QS) is delivering the intended 5% margin benefit and sees potential for earnings uplift if unwound.

UBS estimates EPS could rise 7.5% on a pro forma basis if the RI QS is fully removed. Additionally, the expense ratio remains significantly above that of Suncorp, but UBS sees a clear path to close this gap through cost-out initiatives already underway.

FY25-26 earnings forecasts have been lowered slightly.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $0.84
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.51, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JBH as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

JB Hi-Fi is expected to announce a 3Q25 trading update in May, and Bell Potter believes the company will be able to achieve most of the growth noted at the start of the quarter, due to easier comps on the previous year.

The analyst notes tariffs and global uncertainty have seen some price increases feeding through, such as Beko up 5%–6% and Smeg from April to May due to a weaker AUD.

Bell Potter stresses the company has 100% exposure to A&NZ and thus no direct impact from new US tariffs.

No change to EPS estimates. Target price at $99 remains. The stock is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $99.00 Current Price is $90.35 Difference: $8.65
If JBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $94.94, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

Karoon Energy is due to report on April 16. The broker lowers EPS estimates by -24% for FY25 and -43% for FY26.

Equal-weight and target price slips to $1.65 from $1.88. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.43
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 69.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights ongoing share and earnings pressures on asset managers due to markets. The broker remains cautious on Magellan Financial, although views most of the negative news as discounted in the share price.

The analyst prefers GQG Partners ((QGQ)), with the company trading at a lower valuation and having achieved more stable funds under management growth and higher inflows.

Morgan Stanley explains Magellan has the potential to be a turnaround story with a strong balance sheet. Mark-to-market forecasts for equity market movements to April 7, the analyst lowers EPS estimates by -2% for FY25 and -12% for FY26.

The target falls to $6.30 from $8.20. Underweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.99 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.36, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Citi has upgraded both HUB24 and Netwealth to Buy, despite trimming near-term forecasts due to equity market softness.

The price target for HUB24 has been lowered to $71.50 from $84.80, and for Netwealth to $26.50 from $30.70, reflecting reduced FuA expectations and lower valuation multiples (see also yesterday's Report).

Forecasts for FY25-27 earnings were revised down across both companies, though Citi sees revenue margin tailwinds from increased cash balances and trading volumes.

While market conditions may weigh on short-term flows, Citi expects structural growth and cost optionality to support margins.

Earnings forecasts for both have been downgraded, though FY25 EPS for Netwealth was marginally lifted due to a lower tax rate.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $22.61 Difference: $3.89
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

The broker lowers Origin Energy's EPS estimates by -9% for FY26.

Target price remains at $8.88. Underweight. Sector call: In-Line.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $9.80 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights new listings grew 6% in March on a year earlier, after improving from a decline of -8% in February.

Capital cities were the main force underpinning new listings, rising 13% on last year, while regional areas fell by -5%.

On a quarterly basis, the broker estimates new listings were down -0.2% on the same period in 2024, lower than the expected growth of 3%.

Citi estimates REA Group's 3Q25 group revenue rose 13% on the year previously versus consensus at 11% growth in 2H25.

Buy rated with a $275 target price.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $231.67 Difference: $43.33
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.43, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners reported a decline in funds under management of -8.3% to $16.5bn from $18bn at the end of 2024, with most due to the reclassification of funds between earnings and committed.

Net inflows for the March quarter stood at $149m, Bell Potter notes, with $80m into multistrategy and $58m into Credit and Royalties.

The broker highlights committed funds under management declined by -1.6% to $17.9bn from $18.2bn, largely due to two Taurus funds.

The stock's valuation is directly correlated to markets and sentiment, which is very weak. The analyst downgrades EPS estimates by -48.2% for FY25 and -21.8% for FY26, due to lower flow and investment return assumptions.

Target price slips to $3.35 from $5. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $1.685
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 128.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie highlights copper prices have fallen to US$3.92/lb on global uncertainties, leading to sell-off in copper equities.

The broker notes Sandfire Resources is trading on an implied copper price of US$3.05/lb, which makes it an opportunistic buy.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $10.80 from $10.40.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $2.65
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating on Santos and Ampol ((ALD)) and has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

Santos is due to report on April 17. The broker lowers EPS estimates by -27% and -33% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Overweight rated. Target price slips to $6.95 from $7.46. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $1.61
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.77, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

Viva Energy is due to report on April 14. The broker lowers EPS estimates by -6% for FY25 and -21% for FY26.

No change to Equal-weight rating. Target price slips to $1.99 from $2.98. 

Target price is $1.99 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.525
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 65.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has marked-to-market for commodity prices, forex, and high-frequency production data, which is negative for the energy sector in a March quarterly review.

Viva Energy is due to report on April 23. The broker lowers EPS estimates by -31% for FY25 and -40% for FY26.

Equal-weight rating and $27 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $7.85
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.77, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Woodside Energy with a $26.50 price target (unchanged), following the company’s agreement to sell a -40% stake in Louisiana LNG Infrastructure to Stonepeak.

The deal is expected to ease near-term capital pressure, with Stonepeak committing $5.7bn in capex and accelerating funding to cover 75% of 2025–26 project costs, the broker explains.

Woodside retains 100% of the liquefaction volumes and aims to sell a further 20-30% of HoldCo, though not necessarily before FID.

UBS sees gearing falling to 21% in 2025, improving free cash flow. While the tolling deal lifts 2025-27 EPS by 1-6%, this is offset by higher project costs and tariff risks. Earnings forecasts for 2025-27 have been raised modestly.

Also noteworthy: on UBS's forecasts, shareholders should continue to see lower dividend payouts for the years ahead.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $7.35
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.77, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts saleable production for Whitehaven Coal for 3Q to be -4% lower than consensus, and total coal sales of 6.4mt, -29% on the previous quarter.

The broker now expects a delay in Vickery development due to subdued prices for both met and thermal coal, which has resulted in an increase to FY25 earnings forecast ,and -15-17% cut to FY29-30 forecasts.

Outperform. Target price $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.87
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 62.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPR as Hold (3) -

Following a transfer to coverage to Leo Partridge, Morgans has a Hold rating on Waypoint REIT and target price of $2.50.

The broker believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Waypoint REIT, the broker sees prospect for share price rising towards NTA due to rise in valuations.

The broker lifted earnings forecasts to match the REIT's guidance. The forecast for FFO/unit rose by 2%, 1.4% and 3.3% for FY25-27, respectively.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.06
If WPR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources