Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -

UBS has been positive on recovery and growth prospects for a2 Milk Co for quite a while and recently reiterated to the broker's clientele that Buy rating is supported by a forecast increase in net profits of no less than 65% between FY26 and FY27.

UBS sees market share gains and higher margins on the horizon, plus reduced losses in the US and from Mataura Valley Milk.

Overall infant formula conditions in China are expected to improve "materially" throughout 2024. Target NZ$7.05.

This research was originally released on April 29, 2024.

Current Price is $5.97. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources reported a miss on the March quarter trading update according to Bell Potter.

Tritton produced 4.3kt of copper, compared to the analyst's forecast of 5.0kt and costs came in higher with AISC at $5.81/lb compared to the estimate of $5.29/lb.

Looking ahead, Bell Potter expects the production at Tritton to accelerate to circa 20kt p.a. plus of copper and lower the AISC to $5/lb, which will help fund development projects.

Higher copper and gold prices have raised the analyst's earnings forecasts. EPS is increased to 6c from -2c in FY24 with a 140% uplift in EPS for FY25.

Buy rating unchanged and the target price is lifted to 30c from 23c.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.045
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has marginally increased its earnings forecast for Ampol following its March Q update. The broker's dividend forecast equates to a 6.0% (ff) yield, not including the potential for another special.

There appears to be scope for future special dividends or buybacks but it is not the broker's base case, as Ampol intends to reduce leverage.

Hold and $35 target retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.44, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

UBS retains a conservative outlook on Ampol post the disappointing and weaker than expected March quarter results.

An unplanned outage at Lytton underpinned lower than expected production, missing consensus by 8%. Equally margins came under pressure from softer diesel and jet sales.

The analyst points to a robust pricing strategy which has offset some of the volume pressures for the group.

Looking ahead, UBS is cautious on the convenience store operations and the broker is looking to further investment in the premium and highway sites.

FY24 EPS forecasts are reduced by -9% post the update, reflecting lower Lytton production as well as reduced retail and wholesale volumes from higher cost of living issues.

Target price of $34.40 and the Neutral rating are unchanged.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.44, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Amcor's 3Q24 reported EPS of US17.7c was a 6.6% beat on consensus and the first guidance lift sine May 2022, with Macquarie declaring the company is now through the "worst".

The broker points to better volumes and cost improvement measurements as drivers for the better results.

Uncertainty around the new CEO appointment is viewed as a potential "overhang", but forecast de-gearing of the balance sheet to 3.0x at FY24 is a positive, falling to 2.85x in FY25.

EPS forecasts are raised by 2.3% and 2.6% for FY24 and FY25, respectively, and the dividend remains unchanged.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. The target price is increased to $15.40 from $14.90.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $0.95
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley summarises Amcor's quarterly as a solid result with improved margins, despite further top-line declines.

The company's expectation of abating de-stocking and a top-line inflection point are encouraging, the broker finds, while cost-out initiatives appear to be working.

The broker does make a point that Amcor's growth outlook remains modest. Within this context, the current valuation is seen as "fair".

Equal-Weight rating and $14.50 target price. Industry view: In-line. Forecasts have been upgraded.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $0.05
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Add (1) -

Amcor's March Q result exceeded Morgans and guidance, returning to earnings growth a quarter earlier than expected.

Strong cost-out and benefits from restructuring initiatives delivered margin improvement in both Flexibles and Rigid Packaging despite lower sales and volumes, the broker notes.

Management has narrowed FY24 underlying earnings guidance toward the top end of the range. Destocking continues to be a drag on volume and the balance sheet remains relatively stretched, although management expects leverage to fall by the end of FY24.

Target rises to $15.95 from $15.65, Add retained.

Target price is $15.95 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $1.5
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Accumulate (2) -

Amcor has provided updated earnings guidance following a stronger than expected March Q and an improved outlook for the remainder of FY24. Ord Minnett has upgraded its earnings forecast to the bottom end of updated guidance.

The improved forecast is driven by a small uplift in operating margin from recent cost saving and restructuring programs and a sooner than expected recovery in volumes.

The broker now forecasts low single digit growth in volume from FY25, up from a low single digit decline previously. Target rises to $17.80 from $17.00, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $3.35
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor's Q3 proved a solid beat with UBS analysts pointing towards lower interest expenses and better margins on the back of cost controls and structural cost out benefits.

With management noting ongoing de-stocking in healthcare, total volumes were down -4% year-on-year. Rigids volumes were down -8%, with ongoing softness in hot-fill beverage categories.

 Neutral rating retained and target price lifts to $15.85 from $15.60 on higher forecasts.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $1.15
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Increased copper production in Chile and the copper fundamentals outlook are driving growth in Austin Engineering's Chile business unit into FY25. Shaw and Partners remains comfortable with its forecasts and maintains a 60c target.

Austin Engineering is trading at an FY24 PE of 9.0x versus comparable companies trading at around 14.3x. It’s also trading well below the broker's target, hence Buy retained.

Austin Engineering is a very well-run company delivering impressive results under a revised strategy, Shaw notes. Despite the recent share price rally, the company is still seen as attractively priced.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.11
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Bapcor has issued a profit warning, now expecting FY24 net profit in between $93m and $97m versus market consensus sitting at $115.6m, reports Citi.

The broker highlights today's warning follows on from two prior downgrades issued in October last year and in January.

Citi is worried given the new CEO has already given up on his job (before starting) and there's potential for further management departures.

The broker continues to see downside risks to FY25 forecasts. Neutral. Target $6.34.

Target price is $6.34 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.69
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Sell (5) -

Two recent data points from the fast food sector have given Citi comfort around its Sell rating on Collins Foods.

Restaurant Brands’s ((RBD)) 1Q24 sales update revealed a further deterioration in Australian sales, and McDonald’s 1Q24 update revealed “flat-to-declining” fast food industry traffic in Australia.

Restaurant Brands continued to cite cost of living pressures which have impacted discretionary spending in Australia and Citi reminds that Collins Foods at its 1H24 result indicated a proportion of its customer base (“blue collar”) may reduce order frequency or drop out of the category.

More broadly McDonald’s flagged broad-based consumer pressures globally. Citi retains a $10.60 target.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.76 Difference: $0.84
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Coles Group is bringing 'home the bacon' post the 3Q24 supermarket sales results which rose 5.1%, in line with UBS's forecast but above consensus of 4.5%.

Liquor sales were lower than market expectations, but slightly better than the broker's estimate.

UBS is expecting positive tailwinds for the company, including gross margin improvements post the FY23 theft problems; cost savings from Witron, alongside better earnings momentum.

The analyst raises the FY24 EPS forecast by 6.2% and 8.7% for FY25. Target price is raised to $18.25 from $17.50.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral on the improved outlook and the potential for a higher valuation.

This report was published on Wednesday May 1.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $1.85
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.53, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' March quarter results met UBS forecasts, although the analyst pointed to lower than expected realised prices.

UBS highlights improving cash flow is a key target for the company, with the second half of 2024 expected to be stronger on improved volumes and lowers costs at Curragh.

The analyst forecasts met coal prices to be sustained around US$250/t for the current calendar year. Adjusting for the softer quarterly sales and prices March quarter results, the forecast FY24 EPS falls by -18%.

A Buy rating is maintained and the target declines to $1.80 from $1.90.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.66
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses the US 1Q24 results for Domino's Pizza in relation to Domino's Pizza Enterprises.

The US and International market results came in better than expected with an increase in the EBITDA results from fanchisees.

US-based Domino's Pizza highlighted the new product launches in Australia were doing well and that Europe continues to be a "challenging market", although the problems are considered as being temporary with issues in France being resolved.

Neutral rating and $40 target price retained.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $39.34 Difference: $0.66
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.92, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Post the recent update from Suncorp Group ((SUN)), UBS assesses that margins for Insurance Australia Group will continue to remain higher than expected over the next 12-18 months.

Consensus is forecasting a peak of 15.2% which is lower than the broker's forecast of 16% for FY25-26.

With the buyback some 74% finished, the analyst anticipates the stock will continue to be supported into the August FY24 results.

The New Zealand operations are performing better than forecast post accounting for weather events, supply chain problems, labour shortages, as well as reinsurance increases.

A Neutral rating is maintained and the target is increased to $6.50 from $6.00.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.09
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGO as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter acknowledges this is a period of "resetting" for IGO post the 3Q24 results, with the upside of improved lithium earnings and lower capex for Cosmos as potential earnings drivers. More strategic updates are expected in the 4Q24.

Spodumene sales from Greenbushes came in lower than the analyst's estimates at 182.8kt; costs were broadly in line.

Operational problems impacted on nickel sales but pricing came in marginally better than expected. Cosmos will enter care and maintenance in the 4Q24.

Bell Potter raises the EPS forecasts by 4% for FY24 and 26% for FY25 on the back of higher dividend receipts from TLEA.

Hold rating unchanged and the target price is raised slightly to $7.60 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Sell (5) -

Although IGO might be turning the corner, the March quarter results were nevertheless a miss for UBS on the back of weak spodumene production and softer sales, resulting in a 230kt increase in stockpiles and higher costs

China's "cash for clunkers" announcement is viewed as a potential catalyst for Tianqi's decision to take another 200kt, reducing the stockpile.

Adjusting for these sales and the higher costs, forecast FY24 EPS declines by -1% and -11% for FY25.

The target price is lowered by -4% to $7.35 and the Sell rating is retained.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JLG as Outperform (1) -

US peer FirstService Corp reported March Q organic revenue down -6% and earnings margin down -120bps to 8.4% on lower storm-related claims year on year.

Johns Lyng USA is not cycling material storm-related revenue, Macquarie notes, and the broker is more focussed on execution of the US strategy.

While the US first half FY24 result disappointed, management remains focussed on roll-out of new service lines and the operating
model in the US. Macquarie continues to believe in the US growth story, with the Allstate panel win a positive catalyst for growth.

Outperform and $7.40 target retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $1.78
If JLG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Along with its March Q update, Mirvac Group has maintained FY24 earnings guidance in line with Citi.

While resi settlements and sales seem to be progressing towards target, the broker believes profits from the sale of a stake in the office
development project in Sydney, 55 Pitt St, remain key to meeting FY24 guidance.

March Q sales saw a sharp improvement versus recent quarters with some 450 sales compared to a total 629 in the first half.

Mirvac’s repositioning away from office into living and logistics sectors is likely to create a high-quality company in the future, Citi suggests, but the arduous path to getting there is likely to put pressure on earnings growth.

Neutral and $2.30 target retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

At its March Q update, Mirvac Group reaffirmed FY24 operating earnings guidance, contingent on execution of active items.

Maintaining guidance suggests confidence on execution despite risks in residential and the 55 Pitt St sale, Macquarie suggests. De-risking of these will allow market to focus on resi recovery.

Although timing has been delayed, the broker sees Mirvac as well positioned to benefit in a recovery at attractive entry point.

Outperform retained, target falls to $2.31 from 2.38 on a lower expected price for 55 Pitt St.

Target price is $2.31 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.25
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes there's reason for caution post Mirvac Group releasing its March quarter update, reaffirming FY24 guidance (EPS 14.0-14.3c) with the explicit mentioning that guidance is subject to selling down of 55 Pitt and Aspect South, as well as achieving circa 2500 resi settlements.

The broker suggests there's a genuine risk some of the targets might fall into FY25 instead.

Equal-weight. Target $2.41. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.35
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has upgraded Mineral Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight alongside a price target of $83 (up from $67 previously) and an Attractive sector view.

The broker's motivation is the company is nearing the ramp-up of Ashburton, considered a key driver for a profitable iron ore business.

The low cost nature of Ashburton promises additional tonnes for the mining services business that are sustainable through the cycle, the broker believes.

Although balance sheet headwinds remain, the broker acknowledges, cost control and asset sales should see the company through FY24 into a more cash generative FY25.

While the EPS forecast for FY24 has been downgraded, the updated numbers for FY25 and FY26 imply an enormous step up in the pace of growth lays ahead.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $72.16 Difference: $10.84
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $74.86, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Megaport reported a guidance upgrade which UBS assessed alongside a mixed trading update for 3Q24.

The March quarter EBITDA beat the broker's forecast by 6% and the FY24 guidance was lifted to $56m-$58m from $51m-$57m which was the highlight for UBS.

Momentum in growth slowed in comparison to the 1H24, which is concerning the analyst who is looking for improved KPI's going forward and a material improvement in new customers, rather than new services.

While viewing the longer term investment theme as positive in the shift to multi-cloud and AI, UBS is looking for confirmation of an uptake in business momentum as crucial for the company and a re-rating for the stock.

The broker adjusts the EPS forecasts by 9% for FY24 and -3% for FY25. Buy rating unchanged and the target price lifted to $15.85 from $14.50.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $13.23 Difference: $2.62
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.16, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MZZ as Buy (1) -

Matador Mining has announced it has entered into an Option Agreement to acquire the Blue Cove Copper Project located in southeastern Newfoundland, Canada. Blue Cove is an early stage copper, lead, zinc and silver exploration project, Shaw and Partners notes.

Matador offers cheap exposure to an exciting new gold and copper exploration province, the broker suggests, with significant near term news flow expected from further assay results.

Buy and 19c target retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.118
If MZZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 164% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

On Citi's early assessment, National Australia Bank's interim result met forecasts both by Citi and market consensus. The broker also thinks there is no decisive argument from either the bulls or the bears from today's release.

Topping up the share buyback is seen as a positive. On the negative side, business system credit is still slowing, higher funding costs will impact 2H, and it is difficult to see asset quality getting better from here, the analysts state.

The broker, sitting on a Sell rating and $25.75 price target, suggests the key driver for the share price will be how new CEO Andrew Irvine intends to make his mark on the business.

Target price is $25.75 Current Price is $33.79 Difference: minus $8.04 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Judging from UBS's early response, today's interim result by National Australia Bank revealed slightly better-than-expected numbers and an increase in the bank's share buyback.

UBS, with a Sell rating, questions whether it will be enough to sustain the recent uptrend in the share price.

Commenting on the result, the broker labels today's release as "solid, in line with consensus". A better-than-expected net interest margin, largely from M&T contribution of 4bps, provided a positive driver.

UBS repeats the observation the shares are trading on a valuation well above historical averages. Target $28.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $33.79 Difference: minus $5.79 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Neutral (3) -

Newmont Corp's Q1 update broke the trend of the goldminer releasing disappointing market updates, comment analysts at UBS. The March quarter was better-than-expected.

UBS believes FY24 guidance is currently low risk. The rest of the year should see higher production and lower costs at core assets, (hopefully) successful execution on asset divestments, plus deleveraging of the balance sheet and initiation of buybacks, the report suggests.

Neutral. Target US$40. No changes have been made to forecasts.

This research was originally released on 25 April 2024.

Current Price is $62.30. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Origin Energy's March Q update revealed the company is tracking in line with Ord Minnett's forecast for a strong rebound in earnings in FY24, mainly driven by the utility business.

Recent strength in electricity futures prices leads the broker to lift expectations for FY25.

2024 is shaping up as another good year for APLNG, Ord Minnett notes, and Origin is likely to receive another big dividend.

Hold and $9.00 target retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

The March quater results from Origin Energy displayed the ongoing energy transition of the business with an increase in spend on utility-scale batteries and an offtake agreement for the QLD Supernode battery, notes UBS.

Production and realised prices for the quarter met expectations, but lower domestic gas sales volumes impacted on revenue.

UBS sees Origin Energy as having a gas cost advantage versus other suppliers which could improve over the second half of the decade.

Adjusting for the lower APLNG sales and revenues, EPS forecast for FY25 declines by -5% and -2% for FY24.

Buy rating unchanged and the target is lifted to $10.55 from $10.10.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $10.55 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: $0.85
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

The US Senate has passed a bill to ban Russian uranium imports and now awaits Joe Biden’s signature – this should push U3O8 prices higher, Citi points out. First commercial U3O8 production has now been achieved by Paladin Energy, on time and on budget.

The broker has upgraded its Australia/Canada resource valuation based on higher enterprise value to resource comparables as sentiment around uranium rises.

Target rises to $17.00 from $14.50, Buy retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.67 Difference: $2.33
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.47, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie considers recent consumer data to assess the discretionary spening patterns of the consumer in relation to Premier Investments.

The Easter weekend is viewed as the catalyst for an incease in staple categories in the last week of the March quarter, and a sharp decline in clothing spend.

On balance, Macquarie is expecting modest discretionary spending over the 2H24 period for Premier Investments. Earnings estimates are upgraded by 6.5% and 6.8% for FY24 and FY25 post the 1H24 results.

The target price is raised to $31.20 from $26, post accounting for the valuation uplift from the potential de-merger of Smiggle and Peter Alexander,

Neutral rating.

Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $29.56 Difference: $1.64
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.95, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Ahead of its investor day, Qube Holdings has increased its guidance for underlying profit growth to 10-15% from 5-10% previously.

Key drivers of the outperformance included better than expected container activity across Qube/Patricks, improvement in Agri/Forestry activity, and steady Resources and Automotive volumes.

Citi estimates the performance of Patrick’s firms up the internal valuation and implies an attractive look-through multiple for the Operating Division.

This set of assets just delivered another upgrade, with the broker commenting this demonstrates their quality and diversification.

Target rises to $3.95 from $3.85, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.67
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -

UBS has retained its Neutral rating and price target of $3.53 following an earnings guide upgrade from Qube Holdings; net profit is now expected to grow by between 10-15% in FY24 rather than the previously guided 5-10%.

The broker suspects market consensus needs to shift upwards by some 3% and itself has not as yet upgraded its modeling.

The company is organising an investor day today, focusing on Patrick, Moorebank, AAT and Quattro assets.

Target price is $3.53 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.25
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

ResMed's performance in the March quarter contained on balance more positives than negatives, that much are analysts at UBS willing to concede. Having previously turned longer-term cautious, the analysts retain questions for what is likely on the medium term horizon.

UBS says the big positive was operating leverage coming through via a much increased gross margin; up 249bps to 58.5%. The broker sees small sequential improvements to the margin in FY25.

The big question that remains unresolved, of course, is whether GLP-1s are a benefit or a hinder and UBS doesn't know the answer.

Neutral. Target lifts to US$195 from US$180. Forecasts have been upgraded.

This research was originally released on April 27, 2024.

Current Price is $32.75. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $35.73, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Accumulate (2) -

Reliance Worldwide has reaffirmed its FY24 outlook, with revenue expected to be down modestly and operating margins stable in FY24.
Subdued volumes are being offset by cost-reduction initiatives.

The key positive for Ord Minnett from the trading update was no further deterioration in Europe/Middle East/Africa, at this stage.

With end-markets potentially stabilising in FY25, new product initiatives underway, and the acquisition of Holman, Reliance Worldwide appears well-placed for an eventual upturn in housing expenditure, the broker suggests.

Target rises to $5.60 from $5.10, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.57
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights the March quarter copper and zinc production from Sandfire Resources was in line with forecasts and management's FY24 guidance remained unchanged.

The analyst highlights the strong performance form Matsa (4.7mt p.a.) and Motheo running at 6mt p.a. for 20 days.

Timing issues on the delay in a US$25m shipment versus the deferral of US$18m in capital expenditure for Motheo suggests net debt is peaking at US$481m, the broker states.

The target price is lifted to $10 from $9.35 and the Neutral rating unchanged.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.23 Difference: $0.77
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.97, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland's March quarter update showed trading is steady with the underlying trend slightly improving, according to UBS's assessment.

FY24 guidance was reiterated by management. The range for FY24 settlements was narrowed to 5,300 to 5,500 from the prior 5,200 to 5,600 and the broker also points out defaults/cancellations currently sit above long term averages but below cyclical peaks.

The ACCC approval for the Lendlease communities ((LLC)) acquisition is not yet forthcoming as the regulator has asked for further information from both parties.

Target $4.64. Neutral.

This research was originally released on 29 April 2024.

Target price is $4.64 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.26
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the Australian wine export data for the March quarter in relation to Treasury Wine Estates.

Value exports declined -5.5% on the previous corresponding period but rose 10.6% for the 6-months ending March 2024, and 22.4% over the December quarter.

Notably value growth for the mainland China market rose 185.3% for the March quarter and 198.6% for the 6-months ending March, post the duty removal.

The premium end of the market experienced a -24.9% decline in the March quarter but rose 30.8% for the 6-months to March end.

UBS retains a positive view on the premium segment and repositioning to that trend is in line with Treasury Wine Estates' strategic portfolio mix,.

Buy rating and $15.25 target unchanged.

The report was published on May 1.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $11.65 Difference: $3.6
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres announced March Q results highlighting continued 1.6% growth in sales during the quarter, assisted by an earlier Easter weekend.

Although rental growth during the development period results in lower overall funds from operations growth, Citi notes, this should assist longer-term growth post development and the commencement of a repositioned dominant centre in a strong location.

Neutral and $2.10 target retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.22
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Underweight rating retained (Industry view: In-line) with Morgan Stanley noting Vicinity Centres has reiterated FY24 FFO/AFFO guidance will be at the top end of 14.1-14.5c/11.8-12.2c in the release of the March quarter update yesterday.

Year-to-date leasing spread remains strong at +2.6%, but the broker highlights 3Q momentum has slowed to just +0.5%. Consumers are buying more food, it seems, while demand for food catering is slowing.

The all-important Chatswood redevelopment is now 70% leased, up from 64% in December, and the broker notes management expects
this to be fully leased by the end of 2024. Target $2.17.

Target price is $2.17 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.29
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero has announced price increases across Australia for all Business Edition plans as well as Ledgers. Citi sees this as positive, with estimates implying a 2% uplift to FY25 group annual revenue per user and the packaging changes positive for medium-term ARPU growth.

Along with the price increase, Xero has also changed its product ladder and made a number of changes to the inclusions.

Buy and $159 target retained.

Target price is $159.00 Current Price is $123.18 Difference: $35.82
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.92, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources