Australian Broker Call
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May 25, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AX1 - | Accent Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
DBI - | Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
TNE - | TechnologyOne | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Shaw and Partners |
Overnight Price: $12.40
UBS rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -
ALS Ltd will report FY23 results on May 29 and UBS expects underlying net profit of $318m. Recently upgraded guidance implies growth of 20% which the broker expects will be underpinned by the commodities and life sciences businesses.
The broker will also be looking for incoming CEO, Malcolm Deane, to update on the growth strategy. Global exploration drilling is expected to support second half geochemistry volume growth of 5% which implies FY23 volume growth of 12%.
Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $12.70 from $12.30.
Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $12.40 Difference: $0.3
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.8, implying annual growth of 66.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.4, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
APE EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $12.85
Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -
The year-to-date trading update by Eagers Automotive was robust (metrics mostly in line), according to Morgan Stanley, in light of various headwinds. It's felt further order book growth provides 2023 earnings visibility, supported by better vehicle supply in the 2H.
Revenue grew by 9% compared to the 13% expected by consensus though management reiterated FY23 revenue guidance of $1bn, points out the broker. Upfront investment and a greenfield ramp-up (e.g. exclusive BYD distribution) is expected to provide a 2H tailwind.
Overweight. Target $15.00. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $2.15
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.44, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 88.80 cents and EPS of 118.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.20 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -
Eagers Automotive's trading update to April revealed gross margins remain strong, though broad cost pressure is evident, which is being offset by structural cost-out initiatives. Management maintained FY23 revenue guidance.
No 1H revenue guidance was provided due to ongoing supply variability from port and shipping congestion which is impacting the core business, observes the analyst. Acquisitions supported 9% revenue growth to April.
The delivery constraints are partly contributing to a strong order book, which Morgans suggests relatively insulates the near-term performance.
The target falls to $15.20 from $15.80. Add.
Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $2.35
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.44, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates APE as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett found the AGM commentary from Eagers Automotive subdued although, in the context of recent new car supply, not hugely surprising. Volumes are challenged for the short term and this has affected deliveries.
The broker was pleased with the reiteration of revenue guidance for 2023 of $9.5-10bn, indicating some improvement is expected over the balance of the year. A Buy rating is reiterated with the target reduced to $15.25 from $15.30.
Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $2.4
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.44, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 126.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 116.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.04
Citi rates AX1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Profit warnings by local retailers and increasing concerns about the macro outlook have prompted a downgrade for Accent Group to Neutral from Buy at Citi.
The broker's price target has fallen to $2.14 from $2.55 as the valuation calculation now includes a -15% discount.
Citi continues to regard Accent Group a well-run business, but a 52% rally over the past twelve months is now meeting too many concerns about the outlook for discretionary spending in Australia.
No changes have been made to forecasts.
Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.1
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 165.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of -5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.99
UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -
BlueScope Steel hosted a visit to several of its sites in the US and UBS notes expansion is on track.
High-grading of scrap remains a priority which the broker notes is not surprising given the current cost to upgrade shred to prime is around US$50/t and the spread between them is currently US$177/t.
Lead times have also started to normalise, the broker points out. Buy rating and $23.20 target maintained.
Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $18.99 Difference: $4.21
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.62, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 248.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.7, implying annual growth of -56.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.1, implying annual growth of -21.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.30
Bell Potter rates CHN as Speculative Buy (1) -
Chalice Mining has raised $70m via a private placement at $7.30 a share. A share purchase plan to raise up to $10m is also open at the same price.
Bell Potter observes the company is already in a relatively strong funding position and a further strengthening of the balance sheet is a positive move, allowing it to wholly focus on exploration and development.
The broker suspects Gonneville and the Julimar projects will gain attention from major global mining companies because of the significant scale of the Gonneville resource, being the second largest undeveloped nickel sulphide resource in Australia.
Speculative Buy rating and $12 target maintained.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $4.7
If CHN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DBI DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $2.56
Morgans rates DBI as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Following DPS guidance at Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's AGM, Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold. It's thought shares may be attractive to income-oriented investors given an attractive cash yield as well as CPI-linked and high margin revenues.
In addition, the broker highlights there are numerous risk mitigants protecting future earnings. It's estimated the total return potential of shares over the next 12 months is around 16% at current prices.
Note: Dalrymple begins paying income tax this June, and an unspecified amount of franking credits will be attached to further distributions, explains Morgans.
The target rises to $2.76 from $2.71.
Target price is $2.76 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.2
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.97 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.54
Bell Potter rates ERD as Buy (1) -
Eroad's FY23 results were consistent with guidance and Bell Potter notes there was a significant improvement in the outflows in the second half. FY24 guidance is for normalised EBIT between break even and NZ$5m.
Bell Potter modestly downgrades revenue forecasts for FY24 and FY25 while upgrading normalised EBIT forecasts from a loss to profit in FY24 and by 12% for FY25. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.50.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.71
If ERD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.85 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.19 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $23.54
Citi rates FPH as Neutral (3) -
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is scheduled to release FY23 financials on May 26 (tomorrow) and Citi reminds everyone management upgraded guidance for the year back in January.
Revenue guidance is for NZ$1.55-1.60bn, with no specific profit guidance included.
The analysts will be keen observers of underlying trends, including the gross margin, and what is likely to be expected from FY24.
Target NZ$28.75. Neutral.
Current Price is $23.54. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $22.85, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.04 cents and EPS of 38.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.96 cents and EPS of 52.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.1, implying annual growth of 16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IMM IMMUTEP LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $0.36
Bell Potter rates IMM as Speculative Buy (1) -
Immutep's lead drug eftilagimod alpha has demonstrated "impressive" clinical results across multiple indications, Bell Potter notes.
The broker expects the company will prioritise a chemo-free phase 3 trial for patients with PD-L1 of more than or equal to 1% ahead of metastatic breast cancer or head and neck squamous cell carcinoma indications.
The broker transfers coverage to another analyst and maintains a Speculative Buy rating with a $0.60 target.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.245
If IMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.80
Macquarie rates LLL as Outperform (1) -
Drill results from Leo Lithium's Goulamina Lithium Project have revealed impressive, thick high-grade intercepts and Macquarie observes recent assay results point to a significant increase in the resource. The broker expects a mineral resource update this June.
Outperform rating and $1.50 target price retained.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.705
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.54
Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
Statistics from APRA indicate that private health insurance industry hospital penetration rates remained steady at 45.1% with an overall industry penetration rate of 55%.
Compared with March 2022, hospital claims activities up 13.1% and ancillary claim is benefits are up 9.6%. Citi continues to expect net margins for resident business will gradually reduce over time.
The broker notes that Medibank Private expects to announce further customer "give back" on covid-related profits before the end of June.
Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $3.45 target.
Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.21
Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -
Statistics from APRA indicate that private health insurance industry hospital penetration rates remained steady at 45.1% with an overall industry penetration rate of 55%.
Compared with March 2022, hospital claims activities up 13.1% and ancillary claim is benefits are up 9.6%.
Citi continues to expect net margins for resident business will gradually reduce over time.
Citi maintains a Buy rating with a $7.85 target for nib Holdings.
Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $8.21 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 45.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLT PLENTI GROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $0.43
Shaw and Partners rates PLT as Buy (1) -
Plenti Group's FY23 cash profit of $4.5m exceeded Shaw and Partners forecast, while new FY24 targets are significantly ahead of expectations. It's noted the cash profit result included product development costs of $10.4m, unlike peers who capitalise this expense.
New FY24 guidance includes the aim to grow revenue to more than $200m (Shaw forecasts $187m), and the delivery of robust cash profit growth skewed towards the second half.
Management also plans to reduce the cost to income ratio to less than 30% and deliver -$25m in efficiencies as the group scales towards a $3bn loan book, observes the analyst.
The target increases to $1.44 from $1.36. Buy.
Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $1.01
If PLT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 235% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.37
Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy (1) -
Playside Studios has announced it will work with Rocket Flair Studios on “Dynasty of Sands” an ancient Egypt-inspired strategy game that will launch in 2024.
This may be the first of many Indie titles to be released under the Playside Publishing banner, according to management.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a total investment in the low-single-digit millions, and the company has previously indicated potential two-year revenues for Indie titles in the range of $3-10m.
On current valuation, the analyst believes investors can get Playside's Original IP (OIP) business for free. The Buy rating and 70c target are retained.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.33
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $6.48
Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley assesses a solid trading update by Qantas Airways, marginally ahead of the broker's and consensus forecasts. Net debt came in -$1bn below the analyst's forecast, with FY23 guidance for net debt down -46% on the FY22 level.
Management has increased the current buyback by $100m. Morgan Stanley's buyback estimate in FY24 is unchanged at $800m.
The broker suggests further growth is not priced into the current share price and reiterates its Overweight rating. The target falls to $8.50 from $9.00. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.48 Difference: $2.02
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.7, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates QAN as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett notes demand still outstrips supply and jet fuel prices have moderated recently. Full planes, high ticket prices and an easing fuel bill mean Qantas Airways is set for record profitability.
The broker lifts FY23 pre-tax profit forecast by 6% to $2.5bn, the midpoint of guidance. Still, the exceptional conditions are unlikely to persist and pricing competition is expected to return as capacity bottlenecks, particularly labour shortages, ease.
Hold rating and $5.90 target maintained.
Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.48 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 95.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 97.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.7, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.90
Shaw and Partners rates TNE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
TechnologyOne's 1H results were strong, according to Shaw and Partners, particularly SaaS annual reccuring revenue (ARR) growth, aided by one-time migration and greater revenues from existing customers.
For FY24, the broker forecasts FY24 SaaS ARR growth of 18% compared to 40% in FY23, and headline revenue growth of 9% versus 13%. As shares are also trading on a high multiple, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.
Mainly due to existing customer growth, the analyst increases the target to $15.70 from $13.60.
Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $15.90 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 31.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 13.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UNI UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $3.15
Citi rates UNI as Neutral (3) -
Universal Store's trading update is signalling the younger consumer is not so resilient amid a weakening economy. Sales guidance for FY23 was weaker than Citi expected and suggests momentum in the core franchise has slowed materially.
The broker's analysis of social media also implies weaker consumer engagement for Thrills, and sales may have been boosted by new wholesale arrangements which may not be in the "long-term interest of the brand".
FY23-24 estimates for earnings per share are cut by -18-20% and the target is reduced to $3.34 from $5.75. Neutral maintained.
Target price is $3.34 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.19
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.70 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.20 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates UNI as Neutral (3) -
Universal Store's FY23 earnings (EBIT) guidance has missed consensus forecasts by -13%, due to a slump in April and May trading for Universal Store and Perfect Stranger, triggering operating deleverage and (by extrapolation) margin pressure, says Macquarie.
Guidance also missed Macquarie's expectations by -11%, and sales guidance fell -7% shy of the broker's pre-update forecast. The broker now concludes the cashed-up youth sector may not be as resilient and cashed-up as thought.
EPS forecasts fall -11.4% in FY23 and -22% in FY24.
Neutral rating retained. Target price is $3, which compares with the previous entry in the FNArena database of $5.40.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If UNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -
Morgans slashes its FY23 and FY24 earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -13% and -23%, respectively, following a deterioration in trading conditions for Universal Store in April and May. It's thought cost of living pressures are beginning to weigh on the youth consumer.
The sharp fall in the company's share price was due to implications current external conditions will linger well into next year, suggests the analyst.
Management guided to FY23 revenue in the range of $258-261m, which was -3-4% below Morgans forecast.
Nonetheless, the broker retains its positive investment thesis for the company and draws attention to the current low valuation and attractive dividend yield. Add. The target falls to $4.20 from $6.85.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $1.05
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 37.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates UNI as Buy (1) -
Universal Store has guided to sales of $258-261m for FY23, with trading gross margins modestly above FY22 and underlying EBIT of $39-41m.
Given overall trading tightened in April and May and this is forecast to continue into FY24, UBS expects revenue to decline as weaker like-for-like sales reflect the core younger consumer reducing purchases because of rental stress.
Gross margins are expected to be resilient because of clean inventory and discipline regarding discounting. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $6.50.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $1.1
If UNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.58
Citi rates WEB as Buy (1) -
Citi finds the positive reaction to Webjet's FY23 results constructive but in the near term suspects the valuation will test investors. Nevertheless, the broker believes investors can capitalise on double-digit B2B growth.
While upgrades will help, the broker estimates, to generate material returns, investors need to value the duration/sustainability of growth.
Following the result, Citi upgrades EBITDA estimates for FY24 by 11% and FY25 by 7%. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $8.80 from $7.20.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $1.22
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 31.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -
Following consensus-beating FY23 results for Webjet, Morgan Stanley raises its FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by 8% and 10%, respectively, due to strong B2B momentum, partially offset by softer B2C take rates.
Total transaction volume (TTV) and earnings (EBITDA) were beats of 7.7% and 9.9%, respectively, compared to the analyst's forecasts.
The broker maintains its Equal-weight rating partly due to a more than 30% valuation premium compared to travel peers and looming consumer headwinds for the B2C segment.
The target rises to $7.45 from $6.50. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 34.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 31.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WEB as Add (1) -
FY23 results for Webjet materially exceeded expectations despite restricted airline capacity and currency headwinds, explains Morgans. Operating cash flow was also a material beat versus forecasts and outlook commentary was considered upbeat.
The broker makes material upgrades to its forecasts and raises its target to $8.97 from $7.20. The company is described as a high-quality growth stock with the ability to achieve plenty of market share growth. Add.
No guidance was provided though management expects to significantly exceed pre-covid earnings (EBITDA). The company has exited the pandemic with a materially lower cost base, consolidated systems and a large business in the US, observes Morgans.
Target price is $8.97 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $1.39
If WEB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 31.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -
The FY23 results are a reminder that potential earnings upgrades are not always baked into the share price, Ord Minnett asserts. Webjet appears well-positioned to deliver on the broker's $250m EBITDA estimate for FY25.
The broker is now expecting the B2B division to achieve revenue and EBITDA growth of 15% and 19% per annum, respectively, between FY23 and FY32. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $9.65 from $7.41.
Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $2.07
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 31.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -
FY23 results from Webjet beat UBS' estimates. The broker notes evidence of operating leverage and accelerating momentum, and assesses the company could reach its $10bn B2B sales aspirations by FY28.
UBS acknowledges the business is exposed to consumer expenditure but flags the market share gains, productivity uplift and the tailwind from the re-opening of Asia.
UBS takes a conservative view on the FY24 B2C recovery and retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $8.60 from $7.40.
Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $1.02
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 31.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ALQ | ALS Ltd | $12.45 | UBS | 12.70 | 12.30 | 3.25% |
APE | Eagers Automotive | $12.44 | Morgans | 15.20 | 15.85 | -4.10% |
Ord Minnett | 15.25 | 15.30 | -0.33% | |||
AX1 | Accent Group | $1.90 | Citi | 2.14 | 2.55 | -16.08% |
DBI | Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure | $2.61 | Morgans | 2.76 | 2.71 | 1.85% |
ERD | Eroad | $0.55 | Bell Potter | 1.25 | 1.50 | -16.67% |
PLT | Plenti Group | $0.45 | Shaw and Partners | 1.44 | 1.36 | 5.88% |
QAN | Qantas Airways | $6.42 | Morgan Stanley | 8.50 | 9.00 | -5.56% |
TNE | TechnologyOne | $16.30 | Shaw and Partners | 15.70 | 12.10 | 29.75% |
UNI | Universal Store | $3.10 | Citi | 3.34 | 5.75 | -41.91% |
Macquarie | 3.00 | 5.40 | -44.44% | |||
Morgans | 4.20 | 6.85 | -38.69% | |||
UBS | 4.25 | 6.50 | -34.62% | |||
WEB | Webjet | $7.57 | Citi | 8.80 | 7.20 | 22.22% |
Morgan Stanley | 7.45 | 6.50 | 14.62% | |||
Morgans | 8.97 | 7.20 | 24.58% | |||
Ord Minnett | 9.65 | 7.41 | 30.23% | |||
UBS | 8.60 | 7.10 | 21.13% |
Summaries
ALQ | ALS Ltd | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $12.40 |
APE | Eagers Automotive | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.85 |
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $12.85 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.85 | ||
AX1 | Accent Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.04 |
BSL | BlueScope Steel | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $18.99 |
CHN | Chalice Mining | Speculative Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $7.30 |
DBI | Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.56 |
ERD | Eroad | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.54 |
FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $23.54 |
IMM | Immutep | Speculative Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.36 |
LLL | Leo Lithium | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.80 |
MPL | Medibank Private | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.54 |
NHF | nib Holdings | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.21 |
PLT | Plenti Group | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.43 |
PLY | Playside Studios | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.37 |
QAN | Qantas Airways | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.48 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.48 | ||
TNE | TechnologyOne | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $15.90 |
UNI | Universal Store | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.15 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.15 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.15 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.15 | ||
WEB | Webjet | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.58 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.58 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.58 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.58 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.58 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 19 |
3. Hold | 9 |
Thursday 25 May 2023
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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