Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Management at Aussie Broadband reaffirmed FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance and provided an overall positive AGM and first quarter
update, according to Ord Minnett.

The number for around 22,000 of net new subscribers for the Aussie Broadband and Buddy Telco brands during the September quarter was around 3,000 ahead of the analyst's forecast.

The broker feels a wholesale agreement with Red Energy (also announced) will broaden the addressable market in residential broadband without incremental operating expenses.

Target rises to $4.42 from $4.18. Buy.

Target price is $4.42 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.52
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ACL as Buy (1) -

FY25 volumes for Australian Clinical Labs are off to a good start, noted management in an AGM update, and FY25 guidance for underlying EBIT of between $65-$73m was reaffirmed, notes Citi.

The good start to FY25 is not a trend, cautioned management 

The Buy rating is kept, with the broker noting a significant valuation discount to peer Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)). The $3.60 target is maintained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ACL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ACL as Buy (1) -

With Australian Clinical Labs tracking towards the top end of management's unchanged FY25 EBIT guidance of $65-73m, Ord Minnett raises its FY25 revenue growth forecast by 50bps to 6.4%.

The company's AGM trading update highlighted 1H volume growth up to October 23 of 6%. The broker expects improved operating
leverage in FY25 and continues to see upside risk to its 9.7% EBIT margin forecast.

The analysts' target rises to $3.90 from $3.35 helped by a valuation roll-forward and a -70bps reduction in the assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to 9.7%. Buy.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.27
If ACL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ADH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its earnings forecasts for Adairs following a sharp sales rebound in the second eight weeks (9.6%) of the first 16-week's (4.8%) of FY25 trading. Management remains optimistic about prospects in FY25.

The Q1 uplift came from Adairs and Mocka in particular, notes the broker, while Focus on Furniture experienced more challenging trading conditions.

While gross margins rose by 50bps, highlights the analyst, management noted higher shipping costs as a potential headwind to further improvement

Target rises to $2.50 from $2.10. Hold retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport reiterated FY25 guidance at the ASM which is viewed as disappointing by Macquarie. The broker was anticipating an upgrade post the estimated NZ$30m kicker for net profit after tax from the equity raising.

Management highlighted ongoing headwinds in passenger volumes returning to pre-covid levels, particularly domestically, and has retained a cautious stance on a 6-12-month outlook.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -5% in FY25 and -2% in FY26 because of higher depreciation charges on timing of capital projects and lower passengers. 

Outperform rating with a NZ$9.11 target price, down from NZ$9.30.

Current Price is $6.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

UBS previews the upcoming Amcor 1Q25 result on Nov 1 with expectations of 1% EPS growth which sits below consensus estimates. Management is expected to reiterate FY25 guidance of EPS growth of 3% to 8%. UBS is forecasting growth in EPS of 5%.

Taking the recent fast moving consumer goods sector results, UBS notes a "mixed" US consumer with commentary from Proctor & Gamble and Unilever confirming the view flexibles' volumes are expected to outperform rigids in FY25.

Under the new CEO, the analyst anticipates management will remain strategically focused on de-gearing the company before any other changes in overall direction.

No change to Neutral rating and $16.65 target price.

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $16.56 Difference: $0.09
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.87, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Regarding upcoming bank reporting, Citi sees scope for surprises on the cost front in outlook commentary, stemming from existing projects or a combination of ongoing inflation and investment spend.

In the case of both National Australia Bank and Westpac, the surprise may come from a refreshed strategy post management changes, suggest the analysts. 

For ANZ Bank, here Citi is forecasting FY24 cash net profit of $6,841m, basic cash EPS of 228 cents, and a FY24 dividend of 166c. 

The stock is rated a Sell, and the target price is unchanged at $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $31.71 Difference: minus $6.71 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.44, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

An updated Scoping Study for Antipa Minerals' 100%-owned Minyari Dome Gold Project proved the viability of a standalone development, explains Shaw and Partners.

While standalone is a good alternative, the broker also highlights Minyari is located only 35km from an underutilised 22Mtpa processing facility at Telfer.

Telfer’s declining production profile results in significant excess capacity that could potentially be filled by Minyari among other nearby assets utilising a hub and spoke model, explain the analysts.

Buy, High Risk rating and 4c target price unchanged.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.012
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the Federal Government of Brazil, State of Minas Gerais of Espirito Santo public prosecutors and public defenders have agreed with Samarco, BHP Group and Vale to settle which results in no changes to the group's provisions.

The broker highlights BHP Group's share of obligations to pay for FY25 is around -US$1bn with management pointing to obligations to perform to be finished over the next 15-years with monies spent from FY25 to FY27 of -US$1.2bn, -US$2.6bn and -US$0.6bn, respectively.

The group's share of obligations is estimated by the analyst at -US$1.6bn.

Citi stresses this settlement does not solve the Australian class action complaint, the UK group action complaint as well as other group action complaints against some Vale and Samarco entities in the Netherlands.

Buy. Target $46.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $42.39 Difference: $3.61
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.31, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Management at Boab Metals has executed an agreement with joint venture partner Henan Yuguang to acquire its 25% share in the Sorby Hills Lead-Silver-Zinc Project for -$23m.

Shaw and Partners highlights this could make it easier for the Northern Australian Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) to approve funding. NAIF is able to provide concessional loans for the development of infrastructure projects in northern Australia.

Separately, management released its September quarter activities report, upon which the broker passed limited commentary.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 40c target are maintained. Boab’s share price is highly correlated with the silver price which is trading at 15-year highs, note the analysts.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.25
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Management at Chrysos released a 1Q business update and reiterated FY25 guidance, implying to Shaw and Partners deployments are on track with expectations. Two units were deployed in Q1 and another one is currently being deployed.

The company's technology will become the global standard, according to management, given 70% of the world’s Top 15 gold miners are already engaged with the gold assaying technology.

Chrysos remains one of Shaw's top picks. Buy, High Risk rating and $7.20 target retained. 

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $1.89
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

The analyst at Citi met up with management of CAR Group at the AGM and was informed turnaround times and lead volumes are quite healthy, despite an increase in dealer inventory.

Also, trading is going well in Korea, according to management, and feedback post the price increase on its Guarantee product has been
positive.

Buy rating and $39.50 target price unchanged.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $37.09 Difference: $2.41
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.67, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Regarding upcoming bank reporting, Citi sees scope for surprises on the cost front in outlook commentary, stemming from existing projects or a combination of ongoing inflation and investment spend.

In the case of both National Australia Bank and Westpac, the surprise may come from a refreshed strategy post management changes, suggest the analysts. 

For CommBank's 1Q trading update, Citi is forecasting cash earnings of around $2.5bn, in-line with the consensus forecast.

The stock is rated a Sell, and the target price is unchanged at $91.50.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $144.02 Difference: minus $52.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $101.14, suggesting downside of -29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

While DroneShield's 3Q revenue missed Shaw and Partners' forecast by -$8m, the company is on track to achieve record revenue in FY24, with $55m booked thus far, ahead of the $54.1m in FY23.

The contracted backlog has grown to $42m, and the broker notes a "robust" $1.1bn sales pipeline supporting future growth. Management is well positioned, suggests the analyst, with $240m (sales value) in inventory ready for short-notice delivery.

Buy, High Risk. The target falls to $1.20 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.275
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EBO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes no changes to Ebos Group's FY25 guidance at the company's ASM with 1Q25 trading revealing growth of 7.5% on the previous corresponding period, excluding Chemist Warehouse. Revenue was not announced.

Regarding the upcoming ACCC decision on Sigma Healthcare ((SIG))/Chemist Warehouse merger, the Ebos Group CEO is not expecting anything "meaningful" on the decision outcomes.

Target price remains at NZ$40.50 Outperform rating unchanged. No change to the analyst's earnings estimates.

Current Price is $33.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $35.18, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes your typical bricks-and-mortar travel agent customer is not as impacted by cost-of-living pressures and is more inclined to travel compared to other channels of travel delivery.

The broker was commenting after recent peer market updates which have placed share prices in the sector under pressure. By comparison, Helloworld Travel's AGM update was cautious but positive, in the analyst's view.

Due to current global uncertainty, no formal guidance was provided, highlights Shaw, but management expects to continue to capitalise on the strong demand for leisure travel into 2025 and beyond.

The Buy, High Risk and $3.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $1.72
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Hold (3) -

Despite a miss for net flows, Ord Minnett raises its target for Insignia Financial to $3.20 from $2.55 due to better-than-expected funds under management and administration (FUMA) in Q1. The broker's EPS forecasts are raised by between 3-4% over the next three years.

The analysts highlight potential for further cost rationalisation initiatives at the November 13 Strategy Day. 

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a "positive" AGM trading update by Judo Capital with management on track to meet FY25 guidance.

Overall, deposit margins and funding mix are trending in line with the analyst's expectations, and the bank is on track to achieve a net interest margin (NIM) of 3% by the end of FY25.

The Buy rating and $1.80 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Sell (5) -

UBS remains Sell rated on Mineral Resources, downgrading its target price to $35 from $48 on the back of a higher discount rate because of corporate governance issues around ASIC's investigation into taxation and MD Chris Ellison.

The broker notes the board's support, stating "full confidence in Mr Ellison and his leadership of the MinRes team" but emphasises the investigations initiate management uncertainty with a "riskier" investment case than previously.

UBS also highlights increased gearing levels for the company with higher cost cutting and capex coinciding with the ramp up in Onslow.

Sell rated. Target $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.12 Difference: $0.88
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.00, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

McMillan Shakespeare announced 1Q25 novated sales growth compared to the previous corresponding period with the passenger market outperforming a decline of -7% in SUV market on a year earlier, Morgan Stanley highlights.

EVs reported a notable 4.7ppt rise on the period to "penetration" of 47% versus 36.3% in 1Q24. The analyst expects novated to continue to take market share, suggesting flat new novated sales despite the contract loss in SA.

More details are needed, the broker explains. Overweight rating. Target unchanged at $20.  Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.16 Difference: $4.84
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.17, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Regarding upcoming bank reporting, Citi sees scope for surprises on the cost front in outlook commentary, stemming from existing projects or a combination of ongoing inflation and investment spend.

In the case of both National Australia Bank and Westpac, the surprise may come from a refreshed strategy post management changes, suggest the analysts. 

For Macquarie Group, here Citi is forecasting 1H cash net profit of $1,592m, basic cash EPS of 422 cents (-8% below the consensus forecast), and a $3.00 dividend.

The stock is rated a Sell, and the target price is unchanged at $176.

Target price is $176.00 Current Price is $233.22 Difference: minus $57.22 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $209.62, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

After Citi's further review of Metcash's trading update (see summary of initial review below) the target is cut to $3.40 from $4.00 after downgrades to the broker's FY25 and FY26 profit forecasts of -11% and -9%, respectively.

From Friday's Report: Following an initial assessment of today's Metcash trading update and outlook, Citi highlights evident gross margin pressure. It's felt consensus will need to lower its 2H profit forecast of $154m given a weak trade market is expected to persist.

Management provided 1H profit guidance of between $132-$135m compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus for $153m and $144m, respectively. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.21
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

Metcash reported below expectations and with 1H25 net guidance some -11% lower than Macquarie's forecasts with weaker sales in hardware, which typically generates higher margins. The "de-leverage" of the division is attributed to weakness in housing.

Management is seeking cost-out initiatives and market share expansion, with the broker highlighting "subdued" chances of a recovery in hardware with rising construction insolvencies and construction at cyclical lows.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -11% to -12% for FY25 through to FY28 largely due to weakness in hardware.

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a decline in target price of -18% to $3.45.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.26
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Management highlighted Metcash has experienced worse than expected deterioration in hardware with DIY retail stable but weakness in trade as housing construction remains under pressure and competitors are discounting. Morgan Stanley notes a new hardware CEO is "imminent".

The broker stresses 1H25 guidance update was a notable "shortfall" compared to expectations with a notable impact on the company's earnings outlook.

Food and liquor were broadly in line with expectations with food showing volume growth and slowing inflation. In liquor, independents continue to perform well and obtain market share.

Target price $3.83. Equal-weight. Industry view" In-Line.

Target price is $3.83 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.64
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash has downgraded 1H and FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance by -18% and -17%, respectively. This follows a trading update revealing Independent Hardware Group (IHG) trade earnings were significantly below market expectations, explains Ord Minnett.

Cost-cutting measures were insufficient to offset sales and margin declines, notes the broker, while trading in Food, Liquor, and Total Tools remains stable.

Management believes a nadir for the housing cycle is near, yet the analyst suggests investors might need to wait for expected interest rate cuts in 2025 for an earnings recovery.

The Buy rating and $4.10 target are retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.91
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Regarding upcoming bank reporting, Citi sees scope for surprises on the cost front in outlook commentary, stemming from existing projects or a combination of ongoing inflation and investment spend.

In the case of both National Australia Bank and Westpac, the surprise may come from a refreshed strategy post management changes, suggest the analysts. 

For National Australia Bank, here Citi is forecasting FY24 cash net profit of $7,020m, basic cash EPS of 226 cents, and a FY24 dividend of 168c. 

The stock is rated a Sell, and the target price is unchanged at $26.50.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $38.95 Difference: minus $12.45 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.75, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Newmont Corp talked down the outlook for the company suggesting for 2025 and beyond gold production would come in some -9% lower than the recent five-year outlook, Macquarie highlights.

The company's 3Q2024 results were broadly in line with the weakness expected by the broker but softer than consensus. All-in-sustaining-costs were 11% above consensus and 2% higher than the analyst's forecasts.

Accounting for a weaker 3Q and lower 4Q guidance, Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -2% for 2024 and -25% for 2025 with similar reductions in EPS forecasts for 2026/2028. The share buyback announcement resulted in a doubling of Macquarie's forecast buybacks.

Outperform rating remains. Target price declines by -11% to $80.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $70.74 Difference: $9.26
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie states Pinnacle Investment Management is "finding new peaks" regarding 1Q25 results where funds under management advanced 16% on the previous quarter with growth of 7%, organically and the balance from a Pinnacle Affiliate.

Retail FUM grew 13% in the quarter on June quarter with domestic institutional up 13%.

Management highlighted a positive stance on the expected institutional flows from Pinnacle Affiliate, stressing the net inflows can be "lumpy". Robust equity markets also boosted performance since the start of FY25.

Macquarie makes minimal changes to EPS forecasts.

Target price raised to $21.25 from $18.18 exemplifying the future expected earnings capacity of the company. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $21.25 Current Price is $19.32 Difference: $1.93
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Excluding acquired funds under management (FUM), Morgans points out Q1 Retail and International FUM for Pinnacle Investment Management increased by 8% and 11%, respectively. 

The group has structural growth drivers, in the broker's opinion. It's felt a medium-term earnings step-up is well supported by a return to improved flows and significant operating leverage on improved FUM. Potential leverage from the recent investment spend is also noted.

Add rating retained. Target price rises to $21.50 from $18.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.32 Difference: $2.18
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett increases its underlying EPS forecasts for Pinnacle Investment Management by 3-6% over the next three years, following management's in-line 1Q update.

Momentum continues to build across the business, assesses the broker, and ample upside remains over the medium-term should global markets remain supportive.

The Buy rating remains, and the target rises to $23 from $20.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.32 Difference: $3.68
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Qantas Airways revealed at the AGM improved revenue per seat on reduced domestic capacity and improved international volumes with around a $70m value accretion, Macquarie highlights.

The analyst points to an estimated additional circa $200m in pre-tax profits from lower oil prices. Management offered flat revenue guidance in domestic with a rise in international volumes adding to around $15m EBITDA.

Macquarie upgrades EPS forecasts due to decline in the fuel price by 7.3% in FY25 and 7.8% in FY26.

Outperform. Target is raised to $8.40 from $6.60 reflecting the increase in earnings estimates with a higher valuation multiple on a more positive macro backdrop of restricted aviation capacity.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $0.37
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans raises its target for Qantas Airways to $8.50 from $7.50 on higher earnings forecasts and higher assumed multiples, and downgrades to Hold from Add after the recent share price rally.

While the company's 1H trading update was in line with expectations, the broker raises underlying profit (NPBT) forecasts.

The analysts incorporate into these forecasts management's updated guidance for fuel costs, capacity, Domestic unit revenues and the employee thankyou payment.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $0.47
If QAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for Qantas Airways to $10 from $8 (on a higher assumed multiple) given management's trading update suggests sustainable growth over the next 3-5 years.

Underlying profit (PBT) of approximately $1.5bn is now expected by management, up by 7% from the prior forecast.

Growth should be driven by investments, non-fuel unit cost reductions, and capacity discipline, explains the analyst.

Qantas deserves a premium valuation over peers, according to the broker, due to a range of factors including operational performance and international capacity. Buy.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $1.97
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

ResMed's 1Q EPS came in 6% ahead of the consensus forecast on strong Devices growth and a tax rate at the low-end of management's guidance range, explains Citi. Revenue growth of 11% was also 3% higher-than-expected.

The broker now sees upside risk to consensus revenue forecasts due to uncertainty around the timing of competitor Philips return to market and the previously overestimated negative near-term impact of GLP-1's.

Mind you, the analysts still suggest near-term operating performance and earnings momentum should be balanced against the potential GLP-1 risk in the medium/long-term. Neutral.

The target rises to $38 from $34.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $37.73 Difference: $0.27
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.84, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes ResMed reported 1Q25 net profit which was better than forecast by 5% due to higher revenues from rest-of-the-world.

Gross margin of 59.2% was in line with estimates with the analyst pointing to a forecast FY25 gross margin of 59.5% at the guidance mid-point range.

ResMed displayed "solid" operating leverage, the broker observes, with 11% revenue growth equating to net profit growth of 25% and a rise of 20% in free cash flow.

EPS forecasts by the analyst rise by 1% in FY25 and 2% in FY26.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and lifts the target price to $41.10 from $37.80.

Target price is $41.10 Current Price is $37.73 Difference: $3.37
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.84, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMD as Add (1) -

ResMed's 1Q double-digit top and bottom-line gains, an improving gross profit margin, expanding operating leverage, and strong cash flow beat Morgans forecasts.

The broker highlights masks benefited from new patient set-ups/resupply/new products and devices were supported by S10 and S11 cloud-connected platforms. The Home Medical Equipment (HME) channel also drove residential software, explain the analysts.

Tailwinds including manufacturing efficiencies, cost control and higher average selling prices offset ongoing freight headwinds, highlight the analysts.

The target rises to $41.33 from $35.93. Add.

Target price is $41.33 Current Price is $37.73 Difference: $3.6
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.84, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Accumulate (2) -

ResMed's 1Q revenues were 3% ahead of the consensus estimate due to higher rates of flow generator growth in the US and Rest of World, observes Ord Minnett.

Revenue growth of 11% resulted in 35% EPS growth, but the gross margin of 59.2% was in line with expectations, while expenses for SG&A and R&D were misses against the analyst's forecasts.

Target rises to $40.05 from $39.25. Accumulate.

Target price is $40.05 Current Price is $37.73 Difference: $2.32
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.84, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Add (1) -

Management's AGM trading update at the Reliance Worldwide AGM was marginally softer-than-expected by Morgans but overall guidance for the 1H of FY25 remains unchanged.

Despite slightly weaker earnings forecasts, the broker's target rises to $6.10 from $5.75 on a higher valuation multiple. It's felt the outlook over the medium-term remains positive given the recent lowering of global interest rates.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.78
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi observes SiteMinder's AGM update was sparing in detail but showed a rise in net property adds in 1Q25 over the previous corresponding period. The analyst states 1Q is typically softer due to summer holidays in Northern hemisphere.

The broker believes Q225 update should reveal more growth in property adds and view upside potential to consensus forecasts for net adds in 1H25.

Operating expenses are also expected to be lower than anticipated with new product additions meeting expectations. Three of four partners for Smart Distribution are live but not expected to contribute "materially" in 1H25.

Buy rating with $7.20 target price.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $0.69
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the October trading update from Temple & Webster at the AGM shows growth of 21% year-on-year, for the year-to-date period.

The broker suggests this implies a slowdown in the sales from late August to October to 18%, year-on-year, although last year was very strong in comparison.

Management retained FY25 margin guidance of 1%-3% despite some margin pressure. The analyst believes the update supports 25% growth for FY25.

Buy rating and $13.50 target price.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $0.96
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.59, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Regarding upcoming bank reporting, Citi sees scope for surprises on the cost front in outlook commentary, stemming from existing projects or a combination of ongoing inflation and investment spend.

In the case of both National Australia Bank and Westpac, the surprise may come from a refreshed strategy post management changes, suggest the analysts. 

For Westpac, here Citi is forecasting FY24 cash net proft of $6,958m, basic cash EPS of 200c, and a FY24 dividend of 180c. 

The stock is rated a Sell, and the target price is unchanged at $24.75.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $32.14 Difference: minus $7.39 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.92, suggesting downside of -13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Citi has cut its 12-month target for Metcash to $3.40 from $4.00 following the company's 1Q trading update, noting a weak trade market will likely persist.

The update for Metcash is also a negative readthrough to Wesfarmers, highlights the broker, given Bunnings’ exposure to trade/commercial represents around 38% of total group sales. 

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $68.01 Difference: minus $7.01 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.17, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Coal production of 7.1mt for Whitehaven Coal in Q1 beat Citi's forecast by 3% while sales were a -2% miss. The analysts highlight unit costs came in at the lower end of guidance.

After the broker moderates cost assumptions, the earnings forecasts across FY25-27 rise by 4-7%, slightly offset by marking-to-market for the latest coal prices.

The target rises to $8.00 from $7.60. Buy.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.26
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Whitehaven Coal reiterated FY25 guidance with unit costs at the lower end of guidance.

The company reported coal production of 5.3mt which was 21% better than consensus expectations, although sales were lower than anticipated by -4%, as was saleable production, post processing.

Prices realised for Qld came in above the US$159t threshold, the analyst states, generating $44m in accrued payments to BHP Group ((BHP)), payable in 12-months.

Macquarie makes EPS forecast changes of 1%. No change to Outperform. Target price lifts 3% to $7.75.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.01
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views coal production for 1Q25 at Whitehaven Coal met expectations but was 4% above consensus, with met coal prices above the broker's expectations and consensus by 5%. Thermal coal prices were in line.

Saleable production met consensus forecasts but weaker than the analyst's estimate which saw a build-up in inventories in NSW.

The first contingent payment to BHP Group ((BHP)) of $44m is due in July 2025.

Overweight rating. Target price $8.35. Industry view" Attractive.

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.61
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Patience may be required with shares of Whitehaven Coal, suggests Morgans, given the dampening effect of soft steel markets.

In the shorter-term, solid cash flows and strong operating momentum in Q1 provide support as does re-affirmed FY25 guidance, notes the broker. Mining volume and cost-out momentum in QLD were considered 1Q highlights.

The target falls to $9.65 from $10.00. Add.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $2.91
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Despite softer 1Q production and sales, Whitehaven Coal's 1Q result was "good", according to Ord Minnett, with strong run-of-mine (ROM) production and better-than-expected net debt.

The broker highlights the importance of an improving 12-month cash flow outlook with lower contingent payments and deferral of Narrabri capex.

Target rises to $9.00 from $8.80 on a higher cash balance this quarter and the broker's lower capex outlook. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $2.26
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley emphasises since WiseTech Global's IPO in 2016 the key man risk as the greatest potential negative for the stock, with the recent CEO change noted as "surprise" and elevating uncertainty and volatility around the company.

The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts and highlights consensus earnings estimates for FY25/FY26 have an upside tilt.

Despite the near-term volatility, the analyst stresses the significant value CargoWise delivers to customers with an increasing competitive advantage and a high growth pathway.

The $120 target is a reduction of -11% due to a higher weighted average cost of capital for the risk around management transition. Industry View: Overweight.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $112.00 Difference: $8
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.78, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources