Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ABC as Sell (5) -

August reporting season for the building materials sector begins with James Hardie Industries declaring its first-quarter FY21 results on August 11 and will finish with Boral’s FY20 results on August 28.

The loss of Adbri's key lime contract has shaken the broker’s confidence in the defensiveness of the lime business. Adbri will be reporting its 2020 half-yearly results on August 28.

The target price is increased to $2.03 from $2.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP’s first half was impacted by covid-19 induced higher costs and more provisions. 

With the company’s platform and product rationalisation starting from mid-2020, UBS considers execution risk to be high. Earnings are expected to hit bottom in FY21 and the broker finds it unlikely for dividends to be reinstated before August 2021.

The company expects first-half business unit operating earnings to be -$70m less than expected by UBS, led by AMP Capital Investors (AMPCI) and the bank.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $1.60 from $1.82.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.13
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQZ as Add (1) -

Alliance Aviation Services has entered into an agreement with US based aircraft leasing company Azorra Aviation to expand its fleet by 32%.

Morgans considers the acquisition cost higher than expected, but still attractive.

The broker expects more detail on the utilisation profile when the FY20 results are presented on Wednesday, August 5 and has left forecasts largely unchanged.

Morgans believes the magnitude of the fleet expansion confirms the increased flying by the company across its network over the next two or three years.

The Add rating is maintained. The price target is increased to $3.65 from $3.54.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.32
If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BKW as Buy (1) -

August reporting season for the building materials sector begins with James Hardie Industries declaring its first-quarter FY21 results on August 11 and will finish with Boral’s FY20 results on August 28.

UBS expects Brickworks to benefit from housing tailwinds. It also appears the market is under-appreciating its property portfolio.

Buy rating reiterated. The target price is increased to $17.88 from $17.10.

Target price is $17.88 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $1.54
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.06, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BLD as Buy (1) -

August reporting season for the building materials sector begins with James Hardie Industries declaring its first-quarter FY21 results on August 11 and will finish with Boral’s FY20 results on August 28.

Boral is considered attractive but its investment case depends on CEO/M&A execution, comments UBS.

Buy rating maintained. Target is increased to $4.30 from $3.70.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.72
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CCX as Overweight (1) -

City Chic is the preferred bidder for the online assets of Catherines, a US plus-sized brand. The company will fund the deal via an equity raising of $80m.

Morgan Stanley believes a re-rating is warranted because of the potential for higher online exposure and accelerated expansion in the US. The broker estimates earnings accretion in FY22 of 6-21%.

The acquisition is not included in forecasts at this stage and the broker maintains an Overweight rating, raising the target to $3.90 from $2.75. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.5
If CCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIP as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS initiates coverage on Centuria Industrial REIT with a Neutral rating. The target price is $3.36.

Centuria Industrial REIT is a pure-play Australian industrial REIT with 48 assets valued at $1.6bn (book value). The REIT’s strategy is to focus on small and medium assets which form 88% of its leases in the last 2.5 years, highlights the broker.

The REIT enjoys strong tenant demand, notes the broker. This is due to increasing space requirements driven by consumers moving to online purchases.

UBS expects more acquisitions by the REIT to boost portfolio quality. The broker expects the REIT to deliver FY21-23 funds from operations (FFO) growth of 5%.

The REIT will be releasing its FY20 results on August 6.

Target price is $3.36 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.09
If CIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS forecasts CSL's plasma collection to decline by -20% for the April-September period owing to covid-19 induced restrictions. This in turn reduces forecasts for immunoglobulin/albumin volumes by -20% for the first half of FY21.

The broker highlights every -5% reduction in plasma collections over a 6-month period translates to a circa -2% earnings downgrade for the year.

The company will be releasing its FY20 results on August 19.

UBS retains its Buy rating with a target price of $331.

Target price is $331.00 Current Price is $277.15 Difference: $53.85
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $307.60, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

August reporting season for the building materials sector begins with James Hardie Industries declaring its first-quarter FY21 results on August 11 and will finish with Boral’s FY20 results on August 28.

One of UBS’s top picks is CSR because it is considered undervalued, with the market focusing on near term revenue declines for building products.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $4.77 from $4.37.

Target price is $4.77 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $1.27
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWN as Buy (1) -

UBS reports Crown Resorts’ shares have underperformed the market by almost -15% since mid-June, driven by an increase in infections in Victoria and investors taking profits.

At the current share price, the broker feels the upside (strong balance sheet and high-quality assets) outweighs the downside of the Melbourne casino closure.

Crown Resorts will be releasing its FY20 results on August 19.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $9.90 from $9.15.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.18
If CWN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Underperform (5) -

June quarter production numbers were in line with expectations. Macquarie assesses the underground review strategy is positive and should provide more clarity on a potential re-start in the first half of FY21.

Any mine life extensions beyond FY23 would present upside to the broker's outlook. Underperform rating and $0.30 target retained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FXL as Neutral (3) -

The company's FY22 trading update has signalled a -$31m post-tax provision related to the pandemic. Cash net profit guidance is $29m.

Industry feedback suggests outstanding receivables are declining on high interest-rate lending products, affected by a combination of repayments and reduced origination activity. The former, Macquarie notes, being supported by government stimulus and private forbearance.

The FY20 results will be released on August 26. Target is raised to $1.25 from 91c.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.11
If FXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FXL as Buy (1) -

Flexigroup’s FY20 net profit was hit by a -$31m provision related to covid-19. Ex-provision, the net profit is 14% above UBS’s forecast driven by cost-out initiatives and a favourable funding cost environment.

The group notes hardship requests peaked in April. Currently, the new requests are similar to pre-pandemic levels.

The broker views Flexigroup as a value play in the buy now pay later category and sees opportunity for it after covid-19. FY20 results will be announced on August 26.

UBS retains its Buy rating with a target price of $1.60.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.46
If FXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades the rating for JB Hi-Fi to Hold due to significant share price performance, which reduces valuation support.

The broker believes Stage 4 restrictions in Victoria raise the risk that the Australian consumer will be shocked into a more negative response to covid-19, while the company was also likely to have been a beneficiary of JobKeeper support to consumers, which tapers later in 2020.

Rating is decreased to Hold from Accumulate. Target price is $44.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $44.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.53, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie envisages 74% upside from the closure of the Bauna acquisition and Karoon Energy's transition to an oil producer. The fourth quarter report was a little stronger than expected.

The company has withdrawn from its Great Australian Bight block EPP46, which Macquarie suspects will be considered a positive given the likely costs involved.

The company will also commence a search for a new CEO with the incumbent retiring at the AGM in November. Outperform rating and $1.25 target maintained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.53
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 77.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

Magellan Financial Group will be restructuring its retail global equities products by consolidating three global funds into a single global fund. This will have two classes – open-ended and closed-ended.

The new fund will have $15bn of funds under management (FUM). New closed-class units can be subscribed to by the unitholders at a discount, reports the broker.

Even though these discounts make strategic sense, UBS finds maintaining net inflows for the group is becoming increasingly capital intensive as the fund manager enters a mature growth phase.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $56.70.

Target price is $56.70 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: minus $4.66 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.68, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MPL as Outperform (1) -

Medibank Private will report its results on August 20. Credit Suisse expects the focus will be less around the profit outcome and more around the treatment of coronavirus claims and top-line trends.

If there are profit headwinds above what is attributable to the pandemic this will not be received well in the broker's view.

Credit Suisse expects Medibank Private to pay one of the highest dividends of the APRA-regulated financials but capital management is likely to be on hold in the current environment. Outperform rating and $3 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.16
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

The Southwest Connex Alliance which includes Acciona, NRW Contracting, MACA Civil, AECOM and Aurecon, has been named the preferred proponent for the Bunbury Outer Ring Road project.

NRW Contracting is a 40% partner in the alliance. The contract is expected in September and UBS considers this a material catalyst that will support its FY21-22 revenue forecast.

It will also increase the company’s presence across government infrastructure after the recent acquisition of the construction firm BGC, expects the broker.

UBS reaffirms its Buy rating with a target price of $3.15.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $1.46
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

OceanaGold production was below Macquarie's forecasts because of the impact of the pandemic at Macraes. Haile performed well.

The June quarter is expected to be the low point in 2020. The broker expects Waihi to provide a strong and sustained source of growth from 2021.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target 5% to $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $0.04
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

APLNG produced a strong outcome in the June quarter. However, Macquarie suspects pricing pressure will be painful in FY21.

The gas performance was robust, with stronger winter sales and customer numbers, while electricity was weak, as expected, because of lower demand.

While the fundamentals are challenging, Macquarie finds some potential opportunity, as gas plants should remain a key part of firming capacity demand and APLNG is leveraged to the gas price. Outperform rating retained. Target is $6.62.

Target price is $6.62 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $1.08
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy had a strong June quarter. Production volumes were in-line while sales volumes missed UBS's forecast by -4% due to inventory build-up in the quarter. 

The highlight of the result was the more than expected Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) FY20 cash distribution, reports the broker.

Average realised LNG prices were also higher during the quarter and offset the lower sales volume, with sales revenue in-line with UBS’s forecast. 

The broker highlights APLNG continues to demonstrate resilience in a soft market. Origin remains one of UBS’s key picks across utilities.

UBS reaffirms its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $7.45 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $1.91
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PGL as Neutral (3) -

Prospa Group has guided to a loss of -$18-22m in FY20 driven by additional provisions and write-offs. The group has also increased its allowance for expected credit losses to 11.7% for FY20, above UBS’s estimated 9%.

Near term conditions are uncertain but the broker anticipates better market conditions after covid-19 due to lesser industry participants and more unmet demand for SME funding.

The group will be announcing its FY20 results on August 27.

UBS reiterates its Neutral rating with a target price of $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.57
If PGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Regis Resources reported strong production to finish the financial year and achieve gold production at the midpoint of the company's annual guidance, according to Morgans.

The company is progressing approvals for the world class McPhillamy's Project, which the broker believes to be a game changer, with the potential to shift the company from a mid-tier to a major producer.

Morgans sees potential for significant resource growth announcements from the company over the coming 12 months.

The broker's forecast model shows the company has strong leverage to the gold price through its flexible hedging delivery schedule.

The rating is decreased from Add to Hold. The target price is increased to $5.82 from $5.25.

Target price is $5.82 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.03
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Buy (1) -

August reporting season for the building materials sector begins with James Hardie Industries declaring its first-quarter FY21 results on August 11 and finishes with Boral’s FY20 results on August 28.

Reliance Worldwide Corporation is considered oversold as the broker does not expect plumbing behaviour to change due to covid-19.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.29 from $3.44.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.7
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as Buy (1) -

With NSW’s Star Sydney operating in restricted conditions, there will be less visitation but UBS expects higher spend per player with higher value patrons given priority.

The shares have underperformed -40% year to date and -20% since mid-June and the broker thinks the downside risk from here is limited. It believes the market has already priced in more closures.

The broker forecasts an operating income of $219m and $226m for FY20 and FY21.

UBS retains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $3.80 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $1.29
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SO4 as Outperform (1) -

Development at Lake Way is now 50% complete and remains on schedule for first production in the third quarter of FY21.

Macquarie expects the ramp up will be supported by healthy stocks of harvest salts. Outperform rating and $1 target maintained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.43
If SO4 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Santos is outperforming peers and the growth story is intact.

The broker expects production will grow in 2021 because of the full year of owning the Darwin LNG asset as well as modestly higher Cooper Basin production and incremental improvements at GLNG.

Morgan Stanley expects some progress on Dorado in the second half and speculates whether Santos may look to farm this asset down again.

Overweight rating. Target is lifted to $5.90 from $5.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $0.59
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Outperform (1) -

Trading has recovered strongly in June and the first half outlook is robust, Macquarie assesses, and the ability to trade through the lockdowns without requiring material JobKeeper assistance is an attractive proposition.

Forward earnings multiples are now back to historical averages. The broker retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $9.50 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.79 Difference: $0.71
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail Group delivered a strong FY20 update with net profit circa 10% ahead of consensus. This was driven by operating leverage benefits, reports UBS.

Except for Macpac, the other divisions posted strong results, states the broker while seeing upside risk to the first quarter of FY21 due to increased auto usage and domestic travel. 

To reflect the group’s guidance, UBS has upgraded its FY20 earnings estimates.

UBS is cautious and retains its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $8.90 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.79 Difference: $0.11
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

Suncorp will report its results on August 21. Firm financial targets for FY21 will likely be received well but additional slippage in both revenue and margins may mean the stock is hit again, Credit Suisse suggests.

A build up in dividend expectations could also lead to disappointment if this scenario does not play out. The broker expects a final dividend of 9c per share and reported net profit of $769m. Underperform rating and $8.75 target maintained.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $0.26
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Production was zero in the June quarter, with activity halted to limit cash outflow and given the weak demand. A steeper cost reduction program has been initiated which means Balama is suspended until conditions improve.

While confident the shift to a lithium-ion electrified world will accelerate, Credit Suisse acknowledges the timeframe is vexing.

There is also an issue of whether an under capitalised balance sheet will get the company to the point where it can take advantage of the structural shift when it comes.

The broker retains an Outperform rating, assuming it does. Target is reduced to $0.70 from $0.77.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.35
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

Tabcorp Holdings pre-announced FY20 earnings (EBITDA) that were 2.6% ahead of Bloomberg broker consensus, according to Citi. The broker believes this reflects better than expected racing results and strong lottery ticket sales.

The profit figures released by the company for FY20 were -2.9% below Bloomberg consensus. According to Citi, this is likely driven by accounting changes and higher interest costs from the new working capital facility.

An around -$1bn non-cash write-down of wagering, media and gaming services doesn't surprise the broker given recent performance and the outlook. The analyst believes this reflects the accelerated structural shift of wagering to online and the intensity of online competition.

The Neutral rating is maintained. The target price is $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.2
If TAH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley takes a cautious approach to Tabcorp, envisaging both structural and cyclical headwinds.

The company will write down the value of wagering, media & gaming services. The impact of the pandemic, a possible acceleration in the retail contraction and competitive intensity in the wagering market are cited as the reasons.

Write-downs are not expected to impact debt covenants. FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) have been pre-announced in a range of $990m-1bn.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Equal-weight rating and $3.40 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TAH as Hold (3) -

Tabcorp Holdings announced earnings and profit guidance marginally ahead of both Morgans and consensus forecasts from the broking community. A goodwill impairment of around -$1.0bn was also announced relating to the Wagering & Media and Gaming Services divisions.

The company noted competitive intensity and structural changes in the Wagering and Media division, particularly in the digital space. The retail channels have also been impacted by covid-19 and the broker doesn't expect an imminent bounce back with further shutdowns now enforced.

The broker lifts both FY21 and FY22 earnings by 6%.

Morgans doesn't rule out a future equity raising and believes the lottery business is the key attraction for investors.

The analyst believes the company remains fair value at current prices.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $3.45 from $2.72.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -

As a result of a trading update by Tabcorp Holdings, Ord Minnett has factored in -$1.05bn for non-cash goodwill impairment charges relating to the company's wagering and media division and gaming services division, due to covid-19 impacts.

The broker notes the key takeaways from the update were the above mentioned impairment charge, adjusted operating earnings (EBITDA) of $1bn-$1.1bn and adjusted net profit of $267m-$273m.

The rating of Lighten is maintained. The target price is unchanged at $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

Tabcorp Holdings announced it will be writing down its wagering and gaming businesses by at least -$1-1.1bn. UBS is not surprised given the structural changes that have occurred in these industries and the underperformance of these divisions.

The broker highlights there is no cash flow and P&L impact and so there are only minor implications.

The company guided towards FY20 net profit of about $270m, 4-5% ahead of the broker’s estimate. This was driven by a better than expected performance by the wagering business.

The broker thinks the upcoming result will be impacted by pub closures and a difficult environment for lotteries. However, profits will increase over the next 2-3 years, it expects.

UBS reiterates its Buy rating with a target price of $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $1.5
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Accumulate (2) -

Tyro Payments provided a trading update for the month of July, which Ord Minnett believes shows the recovery in the company's numbers observed over June has stalled in July, driven by the second wave of covid-19 in Victoria.

The broker estimates that Victoria contributes around 20%-25% of the company's overall transaction value (TV).

Overall, Ord Minnett believes the numbers are still trending well ahead of the trough in activity observed over March and April when pandemic restrictions were in place nationally.

The rating and target price are unchanged. 

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.95
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

Viva Energy Group provided a trading update on July sales volumes for Victoria, indicating flat volumes for diesel and petrol combined, according to Ord Minnett. However, petrol volumes fell -25% ( Victoria accounts for 25% of the company's national volumes).

The broker notes commercial diesel growth accelerated in Victoria in July. The analyst sees downside risk to the Coles ((COL)) Express alliance, fuel volumes and earnings. The broker also points out that refining is weak, while fuel margins are strong.

Ord Minnett concludes the commercial diesel growth in Victoria is a very strong performance.

The rating of Accumulate is maintained. The target price is $2.00.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.31
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources