Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie was disappoined by 29Metals’ September quarter result, noting in-line copper production but sharply weaker zinc, gold, and silver output.

The broker highlights the impact of a third seismic event at Golden Grove, which led to a -42% reduction in zinc guidance and smaller cuts to gold and silver. Copper output of 5.8kt met expectations as mining focused on higher-grade copper zones.

Macquarie flags increased risk to 2026 output, forecasting copper, zinc, gold, and silver production of 22.3kt, 57.2kt, 21.6koz, and 848koz, respectively, between -4-17% below consensus forecasts.

The broker cuts its target price to 45c from 50c and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.03
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting downside of -39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Lighten (4) -

29Metals announced a weak September quarter update, according to Ord Minnett, with seismic activity at the Xantho extended zone affecting production. This resulted in a downgrade to 2025 guidance across all metals except copper.

Zinc production was notably impacted and came in below the analyst's expectations by -87%. The downgrades are estimated to take away around -$60m in forecast free cash flow across 2H2025 and 2026.

The problem is an ongoing series of issues that has impacted the miner over the last three years, resulting in equity raisings of $318m from 2023/2024. The outlook for 2026 is considered equally uncertain.

The broker lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -20% and -30% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Target price is lowered to 35c from 40c, with no change to Lighten rating.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting downside of -39.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AAR as Buy (1) -

Astral Resources reported further strong assay results from 29 holes in its 99-hole RC infill drill program at the flagship Theia deposit, part of the Mandilla Gold Project near Kalgoorlie.

Shaw and Partners observes notable intercepts include 14m at 6.9g/t Au and 24m at 2.2g/t Au. They support strong alignment with the mineral resource estimate (MRE) model and derisk initial production.

Theia underpins 75% of planned output in the pre-feasibility study, with 14 years of mining, $250M capex, and a life-of-mine cost of $2,114/oz.

An update to the Mandilla resource estimate is planned for the March quarter of 2026.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 45c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.175
If AAR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Aussie Broadband's AGM update this week showed softer subscriber growth ahead of the September NBN speed upgrades, but a strong reacceleration since, highlights UBS.

Total subscribers reached 807.4k as at September 30, with 19k added in the quarter, below the FY25 average but consistent with expectations after price increases, explains the broker.

Post-upgrade, the analysts note additions have accelerated to 3.6k in under two weeks, lifting Aussie's NBN order share to a 12-month high.

FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $157-167m was reaffirmed, and UBS raises its forecast 1% to $163m.

The broker lifts its target price to $6.50 from $6.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.61
If ABB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Trim (4) -

Morgans questions the ability of ANZ Bank to achieve its new strategic FY28/30 targets as it relies on a substantial increase in earnings estimates and revenue generation which are far above the analyst's forecasts.

The bank is budgeting on cost out of -$800m in FY26, around 7% of the $11.9bn cost base, and management insisted the cost reduction would drop down to pre-tax earnings. Morgans forecasts at least circa $1.2bn of one-off costs in 2H25.

Investment spending is expected to remain constant at $1.5bn p.a. and the 2H25 dividend per share is anticipated to be flat in 2H2025 on the first half at 83c per share. The remainder of the $800m share buyback has been cancelled.

The broker continues to rate the stock as Trim, stating the complex nature of the bank offsets the relatively cheaper valuation. Target based on a discounted cash flow rises to $32.72 from $28.72.

Target price is $32.72 Current Price is $36.10 Difference: minus $3.38 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.62, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

At first take Citi liked ARB Corp's 1Q26 trading update, although group sales, up 3.8%, came in marginally lower than the 6% consensus revenue growth for 1H26.

The US 4WP/ORW exceeded expectations, management noted at the AGM, which aligns with feedback the analyst had received on a recent trip.

The analyst considers several reasons for revenue growth acceleration over 2Q26, including 4WP/ORW store expansion, store-in-store rollout, and China returning to growth post the Poison Spyder relaunch.

OEM remains weak and declined -33.4% in the quarter versus up 1.5% in 2025, but the company expects a return to growth in 2H26.

Australian aftermarket now has a "healthy" order book and intake despite weaker sales of core ARB models, Citi notes.

Buy rated. Target $45.17.

Target price is $45.17 Current Price is $38.72 Difference: $6.45
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMT as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses Beamtree Holdings' 1Q26 update as solid and regards the appointment of Stuart MacDonald to its Board as a strategic positive. MacDonald is COO of TechnologyOne ((TNE)).

Cost management was a highlight for the broker, with opex declining -2% y/y, and total cost growing 1%, well below the FY26 forecast of 4% and 8% growth, respectively.

Recurring revenue grew 9% y/y, but the run-rate was well below the broker's FY26 estimate of 18% y/y growth.

The company reiterated confidence in delivering further financial improvement through FY26. 

No change to forecasts. Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.39
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Following a full review of Bank of Queensland's FY25 result, Citi lowered FY26 earnings forecast by -0.4% but lifted FY27 by 1.3% on modest near-term adjustments and lower bad debts in the outer years.

The broker views FY26 as a transitional period, setting the stage for more meaningful cost tailwinds in FY27 and a recovery in balance sheet growth.

Target rises to $7.00 from $6.60. Neutral maintained.

In an initial assessment, the broker wrote:

Bank of Queensland's FY25 result was broadly in line, with cash earnings of $383m about 1% above consensus and at the top of management's prior guidance.

Gross loans and advances (GLAs) weighed on lending volumes (mortgage attrition) and deposit competition persisted, observe the analysts. Proactive loan repricing delivered a 1bp net interest margin (NIM) improvement.

Costs fell -4% year-on-year, with further benefits expected from the -$250m productivity program and the AI partnership, highlights Citi.

The broker also notes asset quality remained benign, capital was strong at 10.94%, and total FY25 dividend of 38c was 9% above consensus.

Overall, Citi views execution as solid but awaits details on potential capital partnerships.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Bank of Queensland’s FY26 outlook remains challenging, suggests Macquarie, following FY25 results. Progress is noted on the bank's simplification strategy but there is limited improvement in returns.

The broker highlights softer guidance, with margins “at risk,” slower loan growth, and expenses now expected to rise “below inflation.” Cost savings of around $20-30m from decommissioning ME Bank systems have been deferred to FY27.

While the net interest margin (NIM) was supported by improved lending mix, profitability remains constrained, highlights the analyst.

Macquarie cuts FY26-27 earnings by -2% to -3%, maintaining its $5.90 target price. Underperform rating unchanged..

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $1.32 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Bank of Queensland delivered a solid 2H25 result, with sound margins and a higher dividend (up 2c vs 1H) supporting the share price.

The FY26 revenue outlook was more cautious, reflecting conservative business lending growth and margin pressure from mortgage run-off. This is expected to be partly offset by cost discipline and potential upside from a whole-of-loan sale, which would be ROE accretive.

Cost control remains effective, with sub-inflation expense growth expected in FY26, though amortisation will limit further reductions.

Noting the lift in dividend, the broker reckons the payout ratio will need to rise to 60-75% to maintain it in FY26. The board would support this, given CET1 ratio is expected to be greater than 11%, the broker highlights.

The broker upgraded FY26 cash EPS by 3% as a -1% revenue downgrade is offset by lower costs and loan losses. FY27 EPS forecast is cut -6%.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $6.80 from $6.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

Morgans upgrades Bank of Queensland to Hold from Trim and lifts its target price to $6.87 from $6.20 post 2H25 cash earnings which came in at the upper end of the bank's guidance range.

The broker attributes this to revenue growth. The 20c 2H25 dividend was a beat.

A rise in NIM by 12bps boosted revenue growth of 9% versus 1H25, with the slowdown in home lending balances expected to ease in FY26.

FY25 costs came in flat as anticipated, including a notable decline in investment spending, with costs expected by management to advance at less than CPI in FY26. Credit quality also remains good.

Morgans downgrades EPS in FY27 by -7% but upgrades by 1% for FY28, with the dividend payout ratio retained at 65%.

Target price is $6.87 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes Bank of Queensland announced its 2H25 result which largely met expectations post the pre-announcement of key metrics in late August.

Commercial lending advanced 8% in 2H25, attributed to NSW commercial real estate, and the mortgage book declined by -5% with term deposits falling by a similar margin.

The transition of ME Bank depositors continues, while the transition of Bank of Queensland customers has been deferred. The proposed divestment of the bank's $3.8bn equipment finance portfolio is expected to speed up the bank's transformation process.

Ord Minnett tweaks its EPS forecasts by -1.8% for FY26 and -5.9% for FY27. No change to Lighten rating. Target set at $6

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Upon further reflection on Bank of Queensland's FY25 results, UBS raises its target to $6.75 from $6.50 and retains a Sell rating.

A summary of the broker's research yesterday follows.

Bank of Queensland reported an in-line FY25 earnings report, according to UBS at first glance, including total income up 9%, slightly above the analyst's and consensus forecast. Net interest income rose 9% to $790m, above UBS and meeting consensus forecast.

The 2H25 dividend per share of 20c exceeded the broker's estimate of 19.3c and was well above consensus at 16.9c.

It is believed the bank is transitioning to a more focused and "streamlined" operation in areas where it can compete more effectively.

Management set guidance of CET1 at 10.25%-10.75%.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Having done more analysis on the acquisition of Impect, analysts at UBS are projecting the new addition to generate US$11m of annualised contract value (ACV) by FY27 (vs. current US$8.1m). This is underpinned by teams under contract growing to 230 (currently 150) and ACV per team of US$45k (currently US$54k).

The above translates to upgraded FY27 and FY28 Management EBITDA forecasts for Catapult Sports to US$36m and US$47m, increases of respectively 19% and 16%.

The updated modelling has also pulled forward the timing for Catapult Sports to report its first-ever profit; now forecast to occur in FY27.

The stock remains Buy rated, and the broker's target price jumps to $8.50 from $7.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $1.1
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS feels CommBank's 2025 AGM reinforced leadership stability and strategic continuity. The reappointment of Paul O’Malley as Chairman and the expected tenure of CEO Matt Comyn until at least 2028 are seen as positives for investor confidence.

The broker notes discussions centred on the bank’s AI strategy and employee job security amid ongoing restructuring.

UBS highlights CBA’s technology investment provides scope to lower its cost-to-income ratio toward global peers near 40% from around 45%, offering potential earnings upside of 2.5-3.5%.

UBS retains a Sell rating and $125 target.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $166.78 Difference: minus $41.78 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting downside of -29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS lowers its target for Computershare to $39.00 from $41.20 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell. The stock’s -13% underperformance since August is thought to have priced in downside risk from potential US rate cuts under a Trump administration.

The broker sees improved risk/reward supported by resilient margin income (MI) balances and higher transactional revenue.

FY26 is viewed as a transitional year, with elevated FY25 transactional income normalising and merger opportunities still 6-12 months away.

UBS trims FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by -1.3% and -2.6%, respectively.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $36.60 Difference: $2.4
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.05, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews its September quarter production, price and costs estimates for stocks under coverage in the Critical Minerals sector.

For Elevra Lithium, the broker forecasts September quarter spodumene production at 52kt, around -11% below the June quarter, reflecting additional maintenance following the year-end production surge.

Full-year output is projected at 204kt, the midpoint of 190-210kt guidance, consistent with a steady operational outlook.

The analyst expects shipments to fall -48% quarter-on-quarter as sales are weighted toward the second half, aligned with an anticipated market recovery. Lower volumes are expected to temporarily lift unit costs in the September quarter.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.7
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Evolution Mining's conference call post-1Q26 update focused on Ernest Henry capex deferment to post-FY30, a pull-forward in Cowal OPC ore timing (benefit in years 3-5), and $0.6bn capital returns being on track.

The broker is unwilling to call a peak in gold and sees equity upside while the gold price continues to rise, but also downside if it weakens.

Neutral. Target rises to $11.00 from $10.50.

In a first take, the broker wrote:

Evolution Mining reported 1Q26 production of 174koz of gold and 18ktoz of copper, both down on the June quarter due to bi-annual shutdowns at the Cowal and Ernest Henry mills as well as rain impacts at Cowal.

Cowal generated one-third of group operating mine cash flows and delivered from underground around 2mt. The analyst points to Mungari mill commissioning in the quarter, with the final expansion budget around -15% under budget.

All-in-sustaining costs were $1,720/oz with consensus at $1,780/oz, aided by a stronger copper price.

Management re-affirmed guidance for FY26 and gearing ended the quarter at 11%, down from 15% at the June quarter.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining’s September quarter production of 174koz came in -7% below the consensus forecasts, impacted by maintenance and wet weather at Cowal, explains Macquarie.

Costs (AISC) of -$1,724/oz were broadly in line with consensus, while net debt of $659m was better than expected by the broker, with no further repayments due until FY29.

FY26 guidance of 780koz remains on track, though Macquarie trims its FY26 production forecast by -2%, reducing earnings by -3%.

Macquarie retains an Underperform rating and a $7.60 target price.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $11.09 Difference: minus $3.49 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining reported 1Q26 group production -5% and -6% below the analyst and consensus expectations, respectively. Cowal achieved a lower-than-anticipated result of down -12% vs Ord Minnett's forecast, due to weather delays and mill maintenance.

The gold miner retained FY26 production guidance of 710-780koz at all-in-sustaining costs of $1,720-$1,880/oz. Non-cash costs are anticipated to rise in 2H26 with increased Cowal stockpiles.

Hold rating unchanged. Target moves to $10.50 from $10.20.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.09 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining’s September quarter production of 174koz missed forecasts by UBS and consensus, though costs (AISC) of -$1,724/oz were better than expected.

FY26 guidance was reaffirmed, with expected output of 710-780koz and costs between -$1,720-1,880/oz. The broker remains near the midpoint of guidance with 730koz forecast at -$1,780/oz, and at the higher end of growth capital expenditure forecasts at -$950m.

Balance sheet strength continues to improve, highlight the analysts, with gearing down to around 11% after further debt repayments.

UBS expects solid free cash flow (FCF) yields of 6-7% through FY26-27.

The broker retains a Sell rating and a $9.70 target price.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $11.09 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes motor, home, and business package products have the highest share of commoditised claims for insurance companies.

Advancement in claims processes has the potential to improve data accuracy, claims turnaround times, and customer satisfaction, explains the analyst.

Consequently, claims operations at Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group ((SUN)) are seen by the broker as best positioned to benefit from AI adoption over time. It's thought potential efficiency gains may then be reinvested into pricing to drive volume growth.

The Neutral rating for Insurance Australia Group is maintained. Target unchanged at $9.10.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.17 Difference: $0.93
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews its September quarter production, price and costs estimates for stocks under coverage in the Critical Minerals sector.

For IGO Ltd, the broker forecasts September quarter spodumene production from Greenbushes at 355kt, around -3% below consensus. FY26 output is estimated at the midpoint of 1,500-1,650kt guidance. The results will be released on 30 October.

The analyst assumes steady performance from Nova, with production remaining broadly consistent with prior quarters.

Macquarie highlights Greenbushes’ stable operations and strong cost position but notes softer spodumene pricing continues to weigh on near-term earnings.

The Outperform rating and $5.75 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.35
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Since the broker's last update, Bell Potter highlights the development of Azer-cel has gone well, with Imugene about to present safety and efficacy data from its phase 1b trial in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma post Car-T therapy.

The analyst anticipates aim will be for an accelerated approval based on a randomised phase 2 study in 4L patients. Phase 1b has also been extended to include rare disease types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, where patients are "naive" to Car-T therapy.

An approval study could start enrolment in 2026, subject to FDA approval.

Speculative Buy rating remains. Target price sits at 82c from $3.40, with the valuation below the enterprise value as more advanced peers in the US are also being ascribed a low valuation.

Target price is $0.82 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.425
If IMU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's proprietary US Contractors Optimism index improved marginally in September as lower mortgage rates helped offset otherwise heightened consumer uncertainty. The latter continues to hamper home buying and renovation intent, explains the analyst.

Construction bidding activity and project backlogs indicators improved notably, but product costs are rising, likely reflecting tariff-related inflationary pressures, suggests the broker. Labour expenses also continued to climb.

For James Hardie Industries, Macquarie expects outcomes of the October 29 AGM will be closely watched.

The progressing Azek integration, signs of market stabilisation, and an appealing valuation all support a potential reassessment of the stock, suggests the broker. Unchanged $37.20 target and Outperform rating.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $34.27 Difference: $2.93
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.20, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JIN as Hold (3) -

Jumbo Interactive has agreed to buy Dream Car Giveaways for $109.9m, with upfront cash of $72.5m and $10.2m in issued shares, plus a conditional earnout of $24.5m. Dream Car is a leading B2C brand and digital operator in the UK prize draw market.

Bell Potter forecasts around 45% of 2027 revenue will be generated from non-Lottery Corporation products, and the analyst believes Jumbo’s Oz Lotteries platform is well positioned to generate synergies in combination with the UK B2C market, which is worth around GBP1.3b p.a.

The analyst lifts EPS estimates by 8% for FY26 and 18% for FY27, and has lowered DPS forecasts by -8% for FY26 and -7% for FY27, arising from a board review on the payout ratio.

No change to Hold rating. Target lifts slightly to $11.85 from $11.50.

Target price is $11.85 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $1.14
If JIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JIN as Neutral (3) -

After further assessment of Jumbo Interactive's acquisition of UK-based Dream Car Giveaways, Citi lifted FY27 EBITDA forecast by 25% after factoring in full earnings contribution.

Neutral rating retained. The analyst believes the acquisition offers upside but would prefer to wait until management has achieved tangible results before becoming more upbeat. Target rises to $11.80 from $11.50

On first take, the broker wrote:

Jumbo Interactive has announced the acquisition of UK-based Dream Car Giveaways (DCG) for $109.9m. It infers an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5x for 12-month earnings ending April 20, 2025.

The broker reckons the acquisition is priced at a discount and DCG is a leading digital B2C prize draw platform offering cars, cash, property, and lifestyle prizes.

Funding will be sourced via a mix of existing cash ($17.9m), equity raising ($10.2m), and debt of $81.6m.

Citi notes Jumbo anticipates the acquisition will generate double-digit EPS accretion in the first year post-purchase and could provide a rise in earnings (EBITDA) of 20-25% on an annualised basis.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $1.09
If JIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights several positives for Jumbo Interactive, including multiple game changes, recovery from a soft FY25 jackpot cycle, and price increases in key games.

The analysts' list of positives goes on: strong growth in Daily Winners, emerging SaaS catalysts, and an undemanding valuation.

The broker views the Dream Car Giveaways acquisition positively, noting its strong metrics. These include $37m revenue, -$110m consideration, 46% earnings (EBITDA) margins, and 10-20% earnings accretion, while noting no equity raise was required.

Morgan Stanley believes the deal strengthens Jumbo’s product innovation and negotiating leverage ahead of the Lottery Corp ((TLC)) renewal, though UK regulatory risks remain a watch.

The broker keeps Overweight rating and raises its target price to $16.80 from $15.90. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $6.09
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Jumbo Interactive has made its first international business-to-consumer (B2C) move, acquiring UK-based Dream Car Giveaways for -$109.9m.

The transaction will accelerate Jumbo's strategic shift from slower B2B operations toward higher-margin consumer markets, notes Morgans.

Dream Car Giveaways provides immediate scale and profitability in the fast-growing UK prize draw market, explains the analyst. It's expected to contribute $14.3-14.9m in FY26 earnings (EBITDA), equal to 20-25% growth.

Following the acquisition, Morgans lifts FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by 6% and 11%, respectively. Potential is seen for further UK and US expansion and stronger cash flow generation.

Morgans raises its target price to $15.90 from $12.90 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $5.19
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JIN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the UK acquisition of Dream Car Giveaways by Jumbo Interactive for $110m, which represents the company's first B2C acquisition since realigning its strategic focus on M&A in February.

The deal will be funded via $75m in cash, $10m in equity and up to $25m in earn-out payments, subject to performance.

Dream Car is in the emerging Prize Draw and Competition segment, which has similar characteristics to traditional lotteries, the analyst believes. However, it is regulated under a different government framework.

Management has guided to a FY26 earnings (EBITDA) contribution of $14-$15m from Dream Car, reflecting 20-25% annualised growth. 

Target price is raised to $11.10 from $10.40. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $0.39
If JIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie reviews its September quarter production, price and costs estimates for stocks under coverage in the Critical Minerals sector.

For Liontown Resources (report due 31 October), the broker's September quarter production estimate of 73kt is 4% above market expectations. The FY26 output forecast is 405kt, the midpoint of 365-450kt guidance.

The analyst highlights the miner’s strong operating leverage is well-positioned to benefit from higher volumes as production ramps up.

Following the recent funding raise, the balance sheet is viewed as de-risked, providing flexibility to support growth and execution of development plans.

Underperform maintained for Liontown Resources. Target unchanged at 65c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting downside of -36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Management at Orora reaffirmed FY26 guidance at the AGM, with Macquarie noting expected growth in earnings (EBITDA) and cash flow across all divisions. Higher depreciation and amortisation is expected to temper earnings (EBIT) growth.

The broker highlights Saverglass is now more second-half weighted, with first-half earnings weaker and improvement expected from cost savings at Le Havre and modest volume growth.

Cans remain the standout, with forecast volume growth of 4% in FY26 and 10% in FY27, supported by the Revesby expansion, explains the analyst.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $2.35 from $2.40. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.33
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Orora confirmed FY26 guidance at its AGM, with comments that Saverglass earnings (EBIT) are expected to basically meet FY25 on a Euro basis. This implies around 6% earnings (EBIT) growth in AUD terms on translation.

FY25 remuneration received its first strike with 48% of votes against it, Ord Minnett highlights, while only 11% of shareholders opposed the FY26 long-term incentive grant for the CEO.

The broker makes slight EPS downgrades of -1% for FY26-FY28 and lowers the target to $2.00 from $2.20. No change to Hold rating.

Ord Minnett forecasts a CAGR in EPS of 14% for FY26-FY28, which is above the full vesting threshold of 8%.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews its September quarter production, price and costs estimates for stocks under coverage in the Critical Minerals sector.

For Pilbara Minerals, the broker forecasts September quarter spodumene shipments at 215kt, around 1% above the consensus estimate. The results will be released on 24 October.

An average realised price of US$689/dmt is expected, around -3% below consensus, reflecting softer lithium pricing across the period.

Unit costs are expected to rise slightly to -US$382/t, consistent with ongoing cost inflation and lower production scale.

The Outperform rating and $2.75 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.03
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights Regal Partners reported one of the strongest quarterly updates since the merger with VGI three years ago.

FUM rose 31.1% or $2.3bn to $20.6bn in 2Q2025, with $0.7bn from inflows, especially to hedge funds, credit and royalties, while $1.7bn came from investment performance, mostly from hedge funds.

The fund manager noted 85% of FUM, or $13.7bn, is at or within 5% of the high-water mark, where performance fees are earned.

Bell Potter raises its EPS forecast by 13.9% for 2025 and 5.1% for 2026. Target price is lifted to $4.40 from $4.10. No change to Buy rating..

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $1.08
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.43, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Strong performances across small caps and resource stocks have proven positive for Regal Partners with 3Q2025 FUM rising 13.1% to $20bn on the quarter compared to the prior quarter.

Morgans described the results as "exceptionally" strong and well exceeding both their forecast at $18.7bn and consensus at $19.2bn. Hedge fund strategies achieved 17% investment outperformance over the quarter.

The fund manager also noted both realised and unrealised performance fee revenue for 2H2025 are well above the top end of consensus forecasts around $22m-$52m.

Morgans upgrades its EPS estimates by 23% for FY26 and 6% for both FY27/FY28. Buy rating unchanged. Target lifts to $4 from $3.70.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.68
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.43, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett praises Regal Partners for a "standout" September quarter update which notably exceeded expectations across the board.

The analyst has accordingly upgraded EPS forecasts by 25% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 due to higher performance fees and robust operating leverage.

Performance fees are anticipated to achieve $70m, and the broker estimates 2H2025 inflows of $1.2bn, implying 4Q2025 inflows of $540m versus $723m including committed FUM at the reported quarter.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $4.90 from $4.30 due to a mark-to-market of FUM.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $1.58
If RPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.43, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Sheffield Resources reported a 1Q26 update which Ord Minnett considers mixed. C1 unit costs fell around -33% over the period due to higher output, to $218/t from the prior quarter, and compared to the analyst's forecast of around $255/t.

Offsetting that positive were comments around falling Chinese demand for zircon, so no 2Q26 guidance was offered as buyers are becoming increasingly hard to find.

Improving Thunderbird's performance is viewed as a positive but is being offset by mineral sands prices, which are in a trough.

Management expects to restructure its debt facilities before its December 2025 repayment is due.

No change to Hold rating. Target slips to 10c from 13c previously.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy (1) -

Santana Minerals released strong assay results from drilling at the northern extensions of the Rise and Shine (RAS) deposit, confirming continuity of high-grade mineralisation.

Shaw and Partners notes the intercepts included 13.8m at 8.5g/t Au and 7.9m at 6.2g/t Au, and is expected to support the upgrade of Inferred to Indicated resources and potential underground ounces.

Step-out drilling continues to extend the high-grade core, while infill at RAS South delivered additional high-grade results outside current mine plans.

The broker highlights industry feedback has reinforced its expectations the Bendigo-Ophir gold project will be approved by 1H 2026.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $1.63.

The company is one of the broker's top small-cap picks for 2025.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.74
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global has acquired Tams Group, a specialist end-to-end marine infrastructure services company, with an $85m upfront cash and debt-funded payment, equity issued at $1.99, and a two-year earn-out.

Ord Minnett highlights the transaction multiple looks very attractive at around 2-3x earnings (EBITDA), with FY26 EPS expected to rise by around 25%.

The broker raises its EPS forecasts for SRG by 19%-30% for FY26-FY28. The stock is believed to screen positively against its peers on metrics including EPS growth, margin, and cash conversion.

Buy rating retained with a lift in target price to $3.15 from $2.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.54
If SRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ST1 as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Spirit Technology Solutions with a Buy rating and 60c target price. Spirit is a leading provider of cyber security solutions and secure managed technology services to SMEs in Australia.

The company has three operating businesses: cyber security, secure managed technology, and cloud & communications. The analyst notes all three generated positive underlying earnings (EBITDA) in FY25.

Management has guided to continued growth across all areas in FY26, with "substantially improved performance" in secure managed technology, which was turned around in FY25.

The broker posits Spirit could be a potential acquisition target, with several recent examples in the cyber security industry.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.14
If ST1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Citi looks at the latest US Nielsen data which indicates Treasury Wine Estates' Americas sales declined by -9% in the four weeks to October 4 versus the market, which slipped by -3%.

The broker considers it a slight improvement on the previous four-week period when sales fell -10%.

DAOU, the luxury brand and 49% of the new Treasury America segment of net sales revenue, rose 2%, easing back from 6% growth in the previous four weeks and up 12% in the four weeks before that.

The slowdown in growth rates aligns with management's medium-term target of low double-digit growth in FY26, the analyst states, while Frank Family continues to fall, down -2% against -10% in the prior four-week period.

Citi acknowledges the limitations of the data, with no on-premise sales as well as no off-premise market or DTC channels, which is 20% of the Americas sales.

No change to Sell rating and $5.50 target price.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources