Australian Broker Call
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November 07, 2024
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
DHG - | Domain Holdings Australia | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi | ||
RDX - | Redox | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/ARB.jpg)
ARB ARB CORPORATION LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $42.60
Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -
Despite a decline in new vehicle sales of -7.9% in October, Ord Minnett highlights October was the second-best for sales on record. Cumulative new vehicle sales have fallen over the last three months due to record results in previous corresponding periods.
The analyst notes NSW and VIC experienced the steepest declines in sales, with passenger vehicles down more than sports utilities.
For ARB Corp, key vehicle sales declined by -19.6%, with a notable impact from falling light vehicle sales, particularly in top-selling brands Ford Ranger and Hilux.
Ord Minnett expects slower vehicle sales over FY25 following a record FY24. A robust order book, investment in stores, and the acquisition of MITS Alloy are expected to offset this weakness, the analyst states.
No change to the Buy rating and $47 target price. The broker's earnings forecasts are maintained.
Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $42.60 Difference: $4.4
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.18, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 134.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.4, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY26:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 153.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.9, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/AVL.jpg)
Overnight Price: $0.02
Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy (1) -
VSUN Energy, a subsidiary of Australian Vanadium, has launched Project Lumina to develop a modular, scalable, turnkey, utility-scale Battery Energy Storage System.
The project will utilise vanadium flow batteries for the Australian market, explains Shaw and Partners.
The ultimate aim by management is to unlock the full value of its end-to-end Australian Vanadium Project.
The company is considering a range of funding sources for Project Lumina at either the parent company or asset level.
Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating with a target price of 8c.
Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.064
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/BTR.jpg)
Overnight Price: $0.03
Shaw and Partners rates BTR as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -
Shaw and Partners initiates coverage of Brightstar Resources with a Buy, High Risk rating. The company is currently developing its portfolio of Western Australian gold assets across the Menzies, Laverton, and Sandstone production hubs.
The Sandstone hub will include the recently acquired Montague East Gold Project and the Sandstone project from the merger with Alto Metals ((AME)), soon to be finalised via a scheme of arrangement.
These two projects are located 70 km apart in the East Murchison region of Western Australia.
A target price of 4c is set.
Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.015
If BTR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY26:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/CKF.jpg)
CKF COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $8.51
Citi rates CKF as Neutral (3) -
Citi considers whether shareholders in Collins Foods should be cautious after Yum! Brands revealed that system sales for its KFC stores in Australia have slowed to 2%, down from 3% in Q2 of 2024.
For the 36% of Australian stores operated by Collins Foods, consensus expects flat same-store sales for KFC Australia in 1H25 (ending October), up from -0.3% in the first 16 weeks, notes the broker.
Neutral rating. Target $7.88.
Target price is $7.88 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/DHG.jpg)
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $2.87
Bell Potter rates DHG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Bell Potter lowers its target for Domain Holdings Australia to $3.20 from $3.50 and downgrades to Hold from Buy after a 1Q trading update revealed soft yield due to a shift in sales strategy.
Strong underlying listings growth of 6% year-on-year provided a partial offset, notes the broker.
Management maintained FY25 opex guidance at high-single/low-double-digit growth and flat EBITDA margin guidance of 35.1%, flagging margin expansion in FY26.
Bell Potter lowers its EPS forecasts and reduces its assumed multiple for Core Digital.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.33
If DHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY26:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates DHG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi downgrades Domain Holdings Australia to Neutral from Buy, with a target price decline of -12% to $3.20 following the company's 1Q25 trading update.
The broker notes management is balancing listings coverage and the consumer experience with yield growth.
Citi observes pressure from REA Group's strong price increases has impacted vendor marketing budgets. This has been a negative for Domain, despite an 8% year-on-year rise in listings share, which was in line with the broker's forecast.
The analyst highlights lower-than-expected revenue growth and has reduced the forecast for cost growth to 9% year-on-year, with a decline in EBITDA gross margins of -20bps to 34.9% for FY25.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.33
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/EDV.jpg)
EDV ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $4.74
Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -
When Endeavour Group unveils its 1Q results next Monday, Citi sees a risk of disappointing sales for the Retail business, as several data points suggest a slowdown in liquor sales in recent months.
On the other hand, the broker points out that Endeavour’s retail banners (particularly Dan Murphy’s) could be gaining market share in the current environment as consumers seek value.
Additionally, Hotels could be performing well in gaming, according to the analyst, albeit less so in the Food and Beverage (F&B) segment.
Neutral rating remains unchanged. Target price $5.18.
Target price is $5.18 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.44
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/GMG.jpg)
Overnight Price: $36.22
Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes Goodman Group reaffirmed its FY25 guidance for operating EPS growth of 9%, with Macquarie forecasting 12% and thus expecting potential upgrades through FY25.
The analyst notes 1Q25 development commencements were soft at $0.2bn, but Macquarie anticipates an uptick over 2025, especially from data centre projects, projected to comprise half of Goodman Group's work-in-progress portfolio.
Macquarie emphasises the group’s alignment with high-growth data centre demand, which could enhance earnings visibility, while noting risks from weaker demand in direct markets and pressure from construction cost inflation.
The Outperform rating and target price of $36.47 remain unchanged, reflecting the company's strong guidance and development outlook balanced by a full valuation at 29x forward earnings.
Target price is $36.47 Current Price is $36.22 Difference: $0.25
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.60, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.2, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -
Development commencements were virtually zero, as the first quarter focused more on preparatory work for data centre starts expected in 2025, explains Morgan Stanley.
Regarding data centre starts, management noted new projects moving into work in progress (WIP) would likely be turnkeys. FY25 EPS guidance for 9% growth was maintained.
Management was bullish on the outlook for Industrial, according to the broker, noting upward pressure on land values as sites are repurposed for data centres.
Overweight rating. Target $42.40. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $36.22 Difference: $6.18
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.60, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.2, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GMG as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett believes the 1Q25 announcement from Goodman Group was "underwhelming". The analyst stressed the absence of an expected rise in work-in-progress and forecast yield on cost was disappointing.
Management confirmed $1bn in expected development costs in 1H25 which corresponds to the guided work-in-progress of $15bn by the end of FY25, the broker notes.
Power bank was constant at 5GWs with 2.6GWs secured and 2.4GWs in well-advanced stages of procurement. Data centres represent 42% of the group's work, a rise from 40% in FY24.
No change to Accumulate rating and $35 target.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.60, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.2, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/JHX.jpg)
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $48.84
Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -
Citi finds it difficult to draw conclusions from James Hardie Industries' competitor Louisiana-Pacific's recent results.
Management at Louisiana-Pacific expects a -13% sequential revenue decline in the December quarter, compared to James Hardie’s expectation for a moderate improvement in the second half.
The analyst feels that market share questions relating to siding will dominate the upcoming result for James Hardie. At the last result, management was adamant that no market share had been lost among major builders.
The Neutral rating and $50.90 target price remain unchanged.
Target price is $50.90 Current Price is $48.84 Difference: $2.06
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.98, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 227.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 262.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.7, implying annual growth of 20.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/MGH.jpg)
MGH MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $4.80
Macquarie rates MGH as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes project delays are impacting Maas Group's FY25 guidance.
The company expects FY25 earnings between $215m-$245m, with a greater-than-expected 2H earnings weighting due to renewable project delays in the civil construction and hire segment, which have shifted revenue to later periods.
Macquarie notes the capital recycling program is progressing ahead of forecasts, anticipated to deliver over $100m in proceeds, enhancing the group’s return on capital.
The broker forecasts a 39%/61% underlying EBITDA split for 1H25 versus 2H25, which is in line with the company’s typical performance skew.
The Outperform rating is retained, and the target price rises to $5.06 from $4.95 due to a change in the valuation ascribed to the stock.
Target price is $5.06 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.26
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/NAB.jpg)
Overnight Price: $39.25
Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -
At first glance, Citi believes National Australia Bank's FY24 results are in line with market expectations. Revenue came in marginally below estimates, and bad and doubtful debts were slightly higher.
The broker notes lower costs and a reduced effective tax rate as offsetting factors for the bank.
The results revealed some potential "red flags" to Citi, including a decline in business banking profitability in 2H24, some pressure on net interest margins, and upward trends in bad debts.
Management announced an increase in spending to -$1.8bn in FY25 from -$1.6bn in FY24 and guided toward lower growth in costs.
Sell rating and target price of $26.50, unchanged.
Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $39.25 Difference: minus $12.75 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.75, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.0, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -
On initial inspection, National Australia Bank reported FY24 earnings above UBS's forecast, with a slightly higher 2H24 dividend of 114c compared to the analyst's forecast of 111c per share.
The result was in line with consensus estimates. The broker notes higher investment spending in FY25 of -$1.8bn, a rise of 10% on FY24.
Asset quality metrics deteriorated over 2H24, with non-performing exposures up 17.7% on 1H24 and a 10bps credit impairment charge in the second half.
UBS highlights the softer performance outside of personal banking. The Sell rating and $35 target are retained.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $39.25 Difference: minus $4.25 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.75, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.0, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/RDX.jpg)
Overnight Price: $3.84
Ord Minnett rates RDX as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Redox announced "resilient results," Ord Minnett highlights, in what the analyst views as a challenging environment.
Due to recent changes in the Chinese chemical PPI and the Shanghai containerised freight index, Ord Minnett expects pricing may shift to a "headwind" in 4Q25. The analyst forecasts relatively flat EBITDA on a forex adjusted basis for FY25.
Robust volume growth is anticipated to be offset by pricing and more normalised gross margins.
Ord Minnett raises earnings forecasts by around 2% to 3% for FY25-FY27 due to the structurally attractive industry.
The target price increases to $3.15 from $3.08. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate, as the broker believes it is fully valued.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If RDX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY26:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SCG as Neutral (3) -
Upon initial glance, it is Citi's conclusion Scentre Group has released a "strong" quarterly update, highlighting a re-acceleration of leasing spreads to 1.7% from 1.1% at 1H24, as well as higher occupancy to 99.4%.
As per the broker's comments, management highlighted the accretive subordinated note buyback. Citi anticipates further accretive buybacks opportunistically from November onwards.
From a retail performance point of view, Citi points out Technology & Appliances, Health & Beauty, Leisure & Sports and Food Retail are the best performing categories with Fashion, Footwear and Homewares the relative laggards.
Management has reconfirms it expects Funds from Operations to be in the range of 21.75c to 22.25c for 2024, representing 3.0% to 5.4% growth for the year.
Neutral. Target $3.60.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.14
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 546.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
![](https://www.fnarena.com/stocklogo/SUN.jpg)
Overnight Price: $18.31
Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -
At Suncorp Group's investor day, management reiterated guidance for an FY25 underlying margin towards the top end of its 10-12% range. Citi is maintaining its existing forecasts.
According to management, the guidance is supported by a more robust natural hazard allowance, reduced reliance on reserve releases, and an allocation for growth investments.
The group is committing -$560m to transform itself into a digital insurer, highlights the broker.
Neutral rating. The broker's target price rises to $18.55 from $17.70 on a higher assumed multiple given the positive operating market backdrop and likely strong gross written premium (GWP) momentum.
Target price is $18.55 Current Price is $18.31 Difference: $0.24
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.94, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 104.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.4, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 119.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -
At Suncorp Group's investor day, management reiterated FY25 guidance for an insurance trading ratio towards the top of the 10-12% range, compared to Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts of around 11.75%.
A commitment to increase return on tangible capital should be welcomed by investors, believes the broker. Consequently, a capital return of up to $7bn over the next few years is anticipated, including $4.1bn from net proceeds of the bank sale, suggests the analyst.
Target $20.50. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.31 Difference: $2.19
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.94, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 101.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.4, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 122.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -
Suncorp Group held its investor day, where management outlined plans to become the leading trans-Tasman insurer.
The broker questions the group's ability to achieve this target, given pre-existing margins at the upper end of the 10% to 12% target range and weakening premium rates and revenue.
Target remains unchanged at $19.65 with an Accumulate rating. Insurance Australia Group (IAG) remains the preferred insurer for Ord Minnett at current prices.
Target price is $19.65 Current Price is $18.31 Difference: $1.34
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.94, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.4, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | $2.76 | Bell Potter | 3.20 | 3.50 | -8.57% |
Citi | 3.20 | 3.65 | -12.33% | |||
GMG | Goodman Group | $35.29 | Morgan Stanley | 42.40 | 42.00 | 0.95% |
MGH | Maas Group | $4.80 | Macquarie | 5.06 | 4.95 | 2.22% |
RDX | Redox | $3.89 | Ord Minnett | 3.15 | 3.08 | 2.27% |
SUN | Suncorp Group | $18.74 | Citi | 18.55 | 17.70 | 4.80% |
Summaries
ARB | ARB Corp | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $42.60 |
AVL | Australian Vanadium | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.02 |
BTR | Brightstar Resources | Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.03 |
CKF | Collins Foods | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $8.51 |
DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.87 |
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.87 | ||
EDV | Endeavour Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.74 |
GMG | Goodman Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $36.22 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $36.22 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $36.22 | ||
JHX | James Hardie Industries | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $48.84 |
MGH | Maas Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.80 |
NAB | National Australia Bank | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $39.25 |
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $39.25 | ||
RDX | Redox | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.84 |
SCG | Scentre Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.46 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $18.31 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $18.31 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $18.31 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 7 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 8 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Thursday 07 November 2024
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