Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Audinate Group's Technology Day highlighted to Morgan Stanley progression and execution, in particular for Video and Software product and sales.

New revenue streams from product execution support the broker's case that circa 25-30% growth in US$ gross profit will be maintained into FY25/26 (a subject of recent market debate).

Management did not provide a trading update. As industry data points have remained positive to-date, and based on the strong 1H result along with a 50/50 revenue skew, the analysts are targeting the top end of the above US$ growth profit range.

Morgan Stanley walked away more comfortable with the competitive position, noting the company is in effect building (and monetising) a direct relationship with the end-customer.

The Overweight rating and $22 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $17.64 Difference: $4.36
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts believe the market will strongly support the suggested sale of the digital assets, ex Social Casino, provided the price received is fair. Growth for these assets has stalled, states the broker, plus there is little apparent synergy with the rest of the business.

No changes made to EPS forecasts, but DPS estimates have been lowered.

Yesterday the broker responded as follows: it seems Aristocrat Leisure's H1 performance has significantly beaten Citi's and market consensus forecasts. The broker points towards lower than expected corporate costs driving most of the beat.

Aristocrat has added $350m to its share buyback and announced a strategic review of the digital assets excluding Social Casino, which signals a potential sale and is seen as a positive. An interim dividend of 36cps was declared, in line to Citi's expectations.

While the US operations underperformed slightly, the Rest of World EBITA came in 23% ahead of the broker's forecast, driven by volume growth and product mix. Spending on digital is being scaled back modestly.

Buy. Target $51.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $5.25
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.20, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure reported a 1H24 10% earnings beat, growing net profit 16% year-on-year. A positive performance notes Macquarie with FY24 guidance reiterated.

Results reflected strenghth in the land-based gaming sector and operational efficiencies offering a consistent growth trajectory with minimal seasonality expected in upcoming periods.

The company's strategic review of Pixel United could yield a $2.9bn sale, bolstering Aristocrat's financials.

Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts by 9% for FY24 EPS and 8% for FY25 EPS. The $350m extension in share buyback was a slight miss on the analyst's expectations.

Outperform rating and Macquarie reconfirms Aristocrat Leisure as a top pick. The target is lifted by $2 per share to $50.50.

Target price is $50.50 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $4.75
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.20, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for Aristocrat Leisure to $49.50 from $46.95 following a "solid beat" against consensus estimates for 1H results. Momentum in gaming operations will likely continue into the 2H and the strategic review of Pixel is considered a positive.

First half earnings (EBITDA) and profit (NPATA) beat consensus forecasts by 9% and 10%, respectively, due to better-than-anticipated margins and a strong end to the 2Q for Americas gaming, explain the analysts.

Management's cost optimisation program brought annualised run rate savings of more than $60m, with further benefits expected in the 2H/FY25.

The Overweight rating is kept. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $49.50 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $3.75
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.20, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights a "strong" 1H gaming machine performance (which included increased market share) by Aristocrat Leisure, which overall is performing better-than-expected.

EGM titles dominated the installed base of leased machines in North America, notes the broker.

Increased monetisation in gaming is overwhelming falling player numbers, while profitability in the early-days of the iGaming business is on the improve, highlights the analyst.

Ord Minnett's target rises by 7% to $48 which takes into account earnings from NeoGames coming online in the 2H. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $2.25
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.20, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of AMP with a Neutral rating and a $1.16 target price.

Post the divestment of the Life and Capital divisions, with a focus on Bank and Wealth Management, the analyst says AMP now has a  much simplified structure, but challenges remain with wealth management outflows and sub par bank net interest margins against peers.

Macquarie points to uncertainty around the FY25 launch of a digital-first small business bank in FY25. AMP has committed to a $350m capital return plan, including a buyback and dividends, which could support the stock price, the broker suggests.

Neutral rating. Target price $1.16.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.055
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 1H24 results for Australian banks with a modest -1% to -4% decline in pre-provision profits.

Disappointing consumer trends were offset by business segments and better outlook in institutional banking.

Credit quality slightly deteriorated, but impairment charges are still at cyclically low levels, suggesting an optimistic consensus view on de-risking, according to the analyst.

Banks share prices rose 30-40% since mid-2023, but ongoing pressure from cost growth and potential increases in impairment charges could challenge future profitability and dividend sustainability.

No change to earnings forecasts. Underperform rating and $26.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.26 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.59, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has a negative stance on the major banks believing EPS and dividend growth prospects are modest due to competitive forces and material upgrades are unlikely.

While active buybacks could provide some share price support, the analysts believe they are incremental to valuation and already captured in investors' expectations.

The broker's current order of preference is National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Westpac and CommBank.

The target for ANZ Bank rises to $27.80 from $27.70. Industry View: In-line.

Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $28.26 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.59, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Citi has spotted a "strong trading update" released by Bendigo & Adelaide Bank earlier today. The cash earnings trend when measured on a 12 months run rate is now materially above forecasts, point out the analysts.

On the broker's calculations, the net interest margin in H2 is now above 1.90%, compared with 1.83% in H1. The suspicion is this improvement is directly linked to the repricing of deposits back in November.

Add modest revisions for bad and doubtful debts (DBBs) and the broker's forecasts receive a big boost. Target price jumps to $9.50 from $8.60 but Sell rating retained as Citi maintains difficult core earnings growth trends are likely to persist for longer.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 1H24 results for Australian banks with a modest -1% to -4% decline in pre-provision profits.

Disappointing consumer trends were offset by business segments and better outlook in institutional banking.

Credit quality slightly deteriorated, but impairment charges are still at cyclically low levels, suggesting an optimistic consensus view on de-risking, according to the analyst.

Banks share prices rose 30-40% since mid-2023, but ongoing pressure from cost growth and potential increases in impairment charges could challenge future profitability and dividend sustainability, the broker states.

Underperform rating and $8.50 target price retained.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: minus $1.42 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 1H24 results for Australian banks with a modest -1% to -4% decline in pre-provision profits.

Disappointing consumer trends were offset by business segments and better outlook in institutional banking.

Credit quality slightly deteriorated, but impairment charges are still at cyclically low levels, suggesting an optimistic consensus view on de-risking, according to the analyst.

Banks share prices rose 30-40% since mid-2023, but ongoing pressure from cost growth and potential increases in impairment charges could challenge future profitability and dividend sustainability, the broker argues.

The $4.75 target and Underperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 1H24 results for Australian banks with a modest -1% to -4%decline in pre-provision profits.

Disappointing consumer trends were offset by business segments and better outlook in institutional banking. 

Credit quality slightly deteriorated, but impairment charges are still at cyclically low levels, suggesting an optimistic consensus view on de-risking, according to the analyst.

Banks share prices rose 30-40% since mid-2023, but ongoing pressure from cost growth and potential increases in impairment charges could challenge future profitability and dividend sustainability, in the broker's view.

Underperform and $95 target retained.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $122.26 Difference: minus $27.26 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has a negative stance on the major banks believing EPS and dividend growth prospects are modest due to competitive forces and material upgrades are unlikely.

While active buybacks could provide some share price support, the analysts believe they are incremental to valuation and already captured in investors' expectations.

The broker's current order of preference is National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Westpac, then CommBank.

The Underweight rating and $93 target are maintained for CommBank. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $122.26 Difference: minus $29.26 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CBO as Buy (1) -

The analyst at Shaw and Partners believes the olive groves at Boundary Bend and Boort in Victoria both have have state-of-the-art olive oil mills, having just made site visits.

Cobram Estate Olives has a real competitive advantage in cost and quality of production, suggests the broker, with medium-density groves generating significant advantages over Spanish olive oils sold in Australia.

The target price of $2.05 and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.25
If CBO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

CSR's FY24 result was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. Positives included price increases for building products and the settlement of two property sales, though the performance of the Aluminium division mostly offset these wins.

Hold rating. The unchanged $9 target aligns with the offer by Saint-Gobain. The broker recommends shareholders vote in favour of the offer at the scheme meeting scheduled for June 13.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $0.09
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.41, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ELD as Neutral (3) -

UBS projects the tough macro headwinds for the Agchem markets will subside in the second half of 2024 and into 2025 as the major inventory de-stocking globally is drawing to a close.

The analyst views most de-stocking of out-of-the-money inventory is ending outside of Latin America and will allow for market normalisation.

UBS forecasts 1H24 EBIT of $24m for Elders and it the upcoming release is considered an important report with the analyst seeking confirmation the reasons for the 1H24 earnings misses are due to issues that have been resolved, such as weak cattle markets and inventory de-stocking.

The broker is also looking for confirmation on the Systems Modernisation Plan and whether it is progressing in line with expectations.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $0.68
If ELD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FSF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Fonterra Shareholders Fund on the back of the possible divestment of its Consumer and associated businesses to focus on its core B2B dairy nutrition services, which was announced at the strategic update.

Management highlighed a focus on increasing shareholder value by targeting a higher market valuation, via capital retruns and streamlining operations.

There are no changes to analyst earnings forecasts.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral and a 11% lift in the target price to NZ$4.01.

Current Price is $3.32. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's 1H underlying profit slightly exceeded Bell Potter's forecast and management left profit and earnings (EBITDA)) guidance unchanged. Management is assessing new oilseed crush capacity, with an initial cost estimate of circa -$500m.

Through the cycle earnings were upgraded to $320 from $310m. The broker queries whether guidance can be achieved given FY24 guidance.

An interim 24c dividend was declared, including a 10c special, and the up to $50m buyback (announced at FY23 results) is to commence shortly.

Unchanged Buy rating and the target rises to $9.50 from $9.20.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $1.36
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp reptored 1H24 earnings in line with the pre-guided results of $57m in net profit, observes Macquarie, which transferred analyst coverage.

Management did not change FY24 guidance and the slight lift to its through-the-cycle (TTC) earnings estimate reflects the acquisition of an animal feeds business.

The balance sheet has net cash of $495m, supportive of robust dividend payments and growth investments, notes Macquarie, including expansion in crush capacity, yet to be factored into TTC earnings projections.

FY24 EPS forecast lifts 2% on slightly lower interest and FY25 by 2% on better seasonal conditions.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price is lifted to $9.24 from $9.02.

Target price is $9.24 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $1.1
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Add (1) -

As anticipated following two profit warnings, GrainCorp's 1H earnings fell materially due to a smaller crop and normalised trading and crush margins.

Thanks to a strong core cash position (excluding commodity inventory) of $495m, explain Morgans analysts, an "attractive" fully franked interim dividend of 24cps was declared.

Management reiterated FY24 guidance, but upgraded its through-the-cycle EBITDA guidance to $320m from $310m to include the recent acquisition of XF Australia.

The broker sees a positive FY25 outlook with a big east coast winter grain plant underway following favourably seasonal conditions.

Morgans' target rises to $9.38 from $8.55 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $9.38 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $1.24
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's H1 release had been preceded by two profit warnings. UBS retains a Buy rating on the prospect that FY25 will be better.

The 10c in special dividend and re-confirmation of the share buyback are seen as positives, but then canola crushing requires a higher capex and the JV in Canada remains a negative drag, the broker points out.

Strategic value of the assets and sufficient balance sheet firepower are both cited as underpinning the broker's positive rating. Target has gained 10c to $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $1.06
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GUD as Add (1) -

G.U.D. Holdings revealed a new divisional structure at its investor day: Powertrain and Undercar; Lighting, Power and Electrical; and 4WD Accessories and Trailering. A name change to Amotiv was proposed.

Morgans was encouraged by management's trading update and felt the day reinforced the group’s vision as a diversified, pure play automotive company with significant avenues for growth.

Management guided to FY24 group earnings (EBITA) to be at least $193.5m, a rise of 4.4% on FY23.

The target falls to $13.71 from $13.75 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $13.71 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $2.55
If GUD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Hold (3) -

The name G.U.D. Holdings is likely to change to Amotive now that the Davey water pumps business has been divested and the company becomes an automotive pure-play, explains Ord Minnett.

While the uptake of electric vehicles presents a long-term challenge, the broker believes management is handling the transition in a rational manner.

The $12 target and Hold rating are unchanged.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $0.84
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HPI as Hold (3) -

Harking back to March, Ord Minnett registers its approval for the $49m sale of four pub properties to its major tenant, Australian Venue, because the deal allows funds for venue improvement, hopefully leading to higher rents and longer leases.

Separately, Charter Hall ((CHC)) via its retail fund, acquired a 14.8% strategic stake in Hotel Property Investments, and a future takeover is possible in the broker's opinion.

The Hold rating and $3.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.08
If HPI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Citi has used a general analysis of recent market updates for Australia's wealth management platforms to highlight Hub24 has crowned itself to take the sector's top spot for net funds inflows throughout the March quarter.

Hub24 also enjoyed the largest gross inflows in the December quarter. When measured on ex-transition gross flows, competitor Netwealth Group ((NWL)) beat Hub24 to it in the March quarter.

Recent industry data also show Macquarie Group ((MQG)) has become the 3rd Platform player in Australia, pushing BT to number four.

Citi analysts have convinced themselves Hub24 is set to see margins expand. Only minimal adjustments have been made to forecasts. Target remains $42.80. Buy.

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $42.16 Difference: $0.64
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.74, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter retains its Buy rating for IPD Group but the target slips to $5.70 from $5.90 due to a lower multiple premium of 10% the broker applies to peers, down from 15%.

The analysts made this change after reviewing recent wholesale pricing trends and trade flows of electrical product categories relevant to IPD Group.

While market growth continues to appear resilient in value terms, mix and pricing have begun to do the bulk of the heavy lifting, observes the broker, as the sector cycles material volume growth realised throughout FY23.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $1.27
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Incitec Pivot's H1 financials provided a positive surprise, says Citi, with underlying EBIT of $249m comparing with $213m expected by market consensus.

Citi points out it was all about explosives, with the EBIT contribution from Fertilisers only $10m. There was no further news on the proposed sale of the fertilisers business.

Neutral. Target $2.65.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as No Rating (-1) -

Incitec Pivot's 1H24 results reflected a strong performance in the Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific (DNAP) segment, with a beat on the Macquarie analyst expectations due to strong customer growth and re-contracting.

Management outlook remained unchanged and the company remains in advanced talks to sell the fertiliser business, which is pending approval and affects the commencement of the share buyback program.

The company's net debt position improved significantly, benefiting from previous sales but Macquarie posits Incitec Pivot still faces substantial tax liabilities from these transactions.

Macquarie increases FY24 EPS forecasts by 9.6% for FY24 post the results and a 2% lift in FY25 EPS estimate.

As the broker is under research restriction, no rating or price target is provided.

Current Price is $2.97. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses a "strong" underlying result for Incitec Pivot, particularly for Australian explosives and Fertiliser distribution. While management commentary around the fertilser sale sounds encouraging, there was no "big bang" announcement.

Management confirmed that “advanced negotiations” are in progress for the sale of its fertiliser business. The result includes an around -$500m impairment of the Fertiliser business, and the revised asset value is $1bn, notes the broker.

First half earnings (EBIT) beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 14% and 17%, respectively. Management expects earnings growth of mid-to high-single digits

The $3 target and Equal-weight rating are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.03
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

Record results from Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific and Fertilisers Distribution were highlights for Morgans in Incitec Pivot's 1H results, which materially beat consensus forecasts. It's felt the potential sale of Fertilisers remains an overhang for the stock price.

Profit for the half was down -55% to $164m but beat the consensus estimate for $125.2m. An interim dividend of 4.3c (unfranked) was declared.

The broker notes management commentary was upbeat for Explosives, and feels a global business transformation is underway to materially improve returns.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price falls to $2.82 from $2.94.

Target price is $2.82 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Incitec Pivot reported better than expected 1H24 earnings, a 17% beat on consensus according to UBS.

Explosives were the standout division with Dyno Nobel APAC delivering 36% EBIT growth from repricing of contracts and increased use of technology with the analyst pointing to similar US trends.

UBS also notes a beat for Fertilisers on better than forecast Phosphate Hill volumes. Management confirmed discussions re the divestment of this business are now well progressed.

Management retained FY24 guidance and UBS believes investors will focus on the fertiliser sale and the resumption of the $900m share buyback.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is lifted to $3.40 from $3.21.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.43
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 1H24 results for Australian banks with a modest -1% to -4% decline in pre-provision profits.

Disappointing consumer trends were offset by business segments and better outlook in institutional banking.

Credit quality slightly deteriorated, but impairment charges are still at cyclically low levels, suggesting an optimistic consensus view on de-risking, according to the analyst.

Banks share prices rose 30-40% since mid-2023, but ongoing pressure from cost growth and potential increases in impairment charges could challenge future profitability and dividend sustainability, the broker comments.

No change to forecasts. Underperform and $32.50 target retained.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $34.56 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.41, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has a negative stance on the major banks believing EPS and dividend growth prospects are modest due to competitive forces and material upgrades are unlikely.

While active buybacks could provide some share price support, the analysts believe they are incremental to valuation and already captured in investors' expectations.

The broker's current order of preference is National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Westpac, then CommBank.

The target for National Australia Bank rises to $32.50 from $31.50. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $34.56 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.41, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses the tough macro headwinds for the Agchem markets will subside in the second half of 2024 and into 2025 as the major inventory de-stocking globally is drawing to a close.

The analyst views most de-stocking of out-of-the-money inventory is ending outside of Latin America and will allow for market normalisation.

UBS is forecasting Nufarm to report 1H24 EBITDA of $219m, while the sell through of out-of-the-money inventory during this period will put pressure on margins and result in a more stretched balance sheet.

Nufarm is expected to update the market on Omega-3 revenue growth for FY25 which UBS expects to double.

The analyst makes minor EPS forecast changes of 6% in FY24 and 5% in FY25.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $1.89
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Sell (5) -

Citi has opened a so-called positive catalyst watch on Netwealth Group, essentially banking on positive news flow in the short term that might affect the share price positively.

That surprise should arrive with the release of the Q4 net flows update as management at the platform operator has been hinting at strong wins in recent times.

Further out, Citi continues to see downside risk for FY24 financials, plus the broker finds the valuation too rich. Hence, Sell rating retained, with a price target of $18.65.

Target price is $18.65 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.76, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OML as Buy (1) -

UBS only initiated coverage on oOh!media with a Buy rating and $2.05 target in early April. The broker saw the company releasing a "resonable" quarterly update, given the challenging market for advertising.

Outdoor advertising continues to gain market share (as % of agency spend) and so the structural growth thesis remains intact. But oOh!media need a stronger H2 to meet expectations, the broker highlights.

oOh!media is forecast to growth EPS by 11% per annum over 2024-27, implying things must pick up noticeably post the current financial year.

Post the latest update, forecasts have been revised downwards. Buy rating retained, alongside a price target of $1.95, down from $2.05.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.335
If OML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PSI as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS essentially suggests Ardonagh has this in the bag; PSC Insurance will be acquired for $6.19 per share. The board has approved unanimously and the broker does not envisage any issues with respect to gaining regulatory approval from FIRB, FCA and ACCC.

Target lifted to $6.19. Downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $6.19 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $0.17
If PSI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley ponders if REA Group is capable of monetising Buyer's Agents on top of the existing Seller's Agents/vendors, given 89% of property buyers in the US used a Buyer's Agent last year.

Buyers only use a Buyer's Agent between 3-5% of the time in Australia and REA Group currently generates zero income from this source. It's felt the total addressable market (TAM) is $140-350m and REA's revenue potential is $30-70m in the longer-term.

Morgan Stanley makes no allowance for this potential source of income in current forecasts. The Overweight rating is retained and the target climbs to $220 from $210 following a further review of 3Q results. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $191.97 Difference: $28.03
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $188.66, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analyses the US government's plans to increase tariffs on critical minerals and EVs.

The broker points to an increase in natural graphite prices with little implication on lithium and rare earth elements and no impact on bulk commodities.

Syrah Resources is viewed as the winner with graphite developers benefiting from the increase in tariffs.

Macquarie also highlights a possible positive read through on Piedmont Lithium ((PLL)), Sayona Mining ((SYA)) and Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)) due to their location and producer status.

Outperform rating and 90c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.41
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Following electro-magnetic surveys and conventional field mapping, management at Talga Group has raised the Exploration Target for the Vittangi natural graphite project to 240-350mt from 170-100mt at the same grade range of 20-30% graphitic carbon.

Management believes the Exploration Target aligns with future demand from offtake partners.

In Bell Potter's opinion, updated guidance indicates to these potential offtake partners (and strategic equity) a long-life, high-grade and
large-scale anode project of strategic significance.

The broker's Speculative Buy rating and $2.35 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $1.67
If TLG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 246% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 1H24 results for Australian banks with a modest -1% to -4% decline in pre-provision profits.

Disappointing consumer trends were offset by business segments and better outlook in institutional banking.

Credit quality slightly deteriorated, but impairment charges are still at cyclically low levels, suggesting an optimistic consensus view on de-risking, according to the analyst.

Banks share prices rose 30-40% since mid-2023, but ongoing pressure from cost growth and potential increases in impairment charges could challenge future profitability and dividend sustainability, the broker states.

No change in forecasts. The Underperform rating and target price of $26.00 are retained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $26.73 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has a negative stance on the major banks believing EPS and dividend growth prospects are modest due to competitive forces and material upgrades are unlikely.

While active buybacks could provide some share price support, the analysts believe they are incremental to valuation and already captured in investors' expectations.

The broker's current order of preference is National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Westpac, then CommBank.

The target for Westpac rises to $24.50 from $24.40. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $26.73 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Xero's FY24 results on May 23 are critical, in Morgan Stanley's view, with the market hopeful for signs that 19% FY25 revenue growth is achievable.

The analysts also believe investors will monitor closely the first-time cost outlook for FY25. Consensus expects an FY25 cost ratio of 72%.

The broker highlights Xero recently lifted Australian prices and is making progress on the US strategy.

The Overweight rating and $125 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $127.54 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.25, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources