Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Net profit guidance for FY21 is well below forecasts, largely because of worsening gas book re-pricing and Citi also downgrades FY22 estimates by -38%.

Still, the broker assesses the forward curve for electricity is oversold relative to coal & gas prices and the current lack of market liquidity means there is no price discovery.

The broker expects the shares may trade poorly over the short term and reduces the target to $14.49 from $17.68. Neutral retained.

Target price is $14.49 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

AGL Energy’s FY20 net profit was 1% above consensus. Electricity and gas portfolio margin was in line with Credit Suisse’s estimates. The company has guided to a net profit of $560-660m, -19% below consensus and -23% below the broker’s expectations.

The broker thinks while the company has a sound growth strategy, it is unlikely to deliver any material earnings upside.

Credit Suisse retains its Underperform rating with the target price decreasing to $12.60 from $13.70.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $2.76 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

AGL Energy reported in line with forecasts but FY21 guidance was, in the broker's words, an "electric shock", some -22% below forecast. Management's cited issues of lower electricity prices and the end of a gas contract were not themselves a surprise, but the pace is much faster than the broker feared.

The broker's conclusion is the electricity price cycle appears to be at a low and a recovery may take a long time. Electricity is in oversupply due to renewables and batteries, and a regulated lift in retail prices is at the expense of wholesale prices. Underperform retained, target falls to $14.65 from $15.91.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

FY20 net profit was lower than Morgan Stanley expected. FY21 guidance is also below forecasts and includes $80-100m for the Loy Yang A2 insurance recovery.

The broker notes AGL is increasing its dividend pay-out ratio to 100% of earnings per share to maintain a relatively stable dividend, albeit with no franking credits.

The broker anticipates the shares will underperform in the short term and reiterates an Underweight rating. Target is $15.68. Industry view: Cautious.

[We have received confirmation the price target has since been adjusted downwards to $14.14]

Target price is $14.14 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Hold (3) -

AGL Energy reported FY20 profit (NPAT) of $816m and DPS of $0.98, which met Morgans expectations. However, a steep drop in FY21 guidance to between $560m-$660m is -31% short of the broker's expectations. Offsetting this are special dividends forecast for FY21-22, supported by the company's balance sheet strength and solid operating cashflow.

A final dividend of $0.51 was declared.

Morgans maintain a Hold rating with the view the increased dividend will be attractive enough to a subset of investors, but doesn't see a lot of upside potential in the next year.

The target price is decreased to $15.44 from $16.42.

Target price is $15.44 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: $0.08
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Underlying net profit in FY20 was below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The result was affected by weaker commodity prices and driven by lower wholesale electricity prices. Net profit guidance for FY21 of $560-660m implies earnings are likely to decline further.

Despite management's warnings that market headwinds are intensifying, Ord Minnett believes there are now reasons to own the stock predicated on the unsustainable nature of current commodity prices and a recovery in wholesale electricity as a positive catalyst.

The broker estimates FY21 dividends could result in yields up to 6-7%. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target is reduced to $17.30 from $18.40.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: $1.94
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

FY20 underlying net profit was in line with UBS estimates albeit down -22%. A special dividend program has been announced to supplement ordinary dividends, taking the pay-out ratio effectively to 100% of underlying net profit in FY21-22.

UBS reduces estimates for FY21-23 by -8-15% to reflect guidance for wholesale electricity and gas gross margins to each decline by -$150m year-on-year.

The broker considers the headwinds from lower electricity prices and higher gas purchase costs are factored into the stock and maintains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $15.25 from $16.60.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

While the proposed capital return of $544m will likely be welcomed, Citi points out up to $200m of this is in the form of a buyback over 12 months and, therefore, not necessarily a done deal.

The broker makes compositional changes to forecasts to allow for a higher second half compared with the first half and the buy-out of the minority stake in AMP Capital.

Although the short-term outlook is challenging, because of the special dividend, Citi lifts its rating to Neutral/High Risk from Sell/High Risk. Target is steady at $1.45.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes a broadly in-line first half result for AMP with in-line revenue margins. Costs were below expectations. The company reported $1.4bn of excess capital which will be distributed via buybacks and a special dividend. 

No dividend will be paid in the second half of the year which leads the broker to wonder what the company plans on doing with its retained earnings of more than $200m.

The broker considers the update disappointing but notes the stock has an attractive valuation and retains its Outperform rating with the target price decreasing to $1.90 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.37
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Underperform (5) -

AMP pre-announced its result on July 31, so no surprises. While the special dividend and buyback excited the market, total capital return implied fell short of the broker's forecast. No final dividend is expected.

Cost-outs remain on track but the broker does not see over-delivery, and does see ongoing downside earnings risk across all of AMP’s
divisions over the medium term, with management commentary only serving to suggest continuation through FY21.

Underperform retained, target falls to $1.30 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Morgan Stanley observes the transition to an alternative asset manager model is providing an attractive growth opportunity.

However, the wealth business is at risk of revenue falling faster than costs while there remains some regulatory uncertainty. The broker welcomes the return of excess capital via a special dividend and buybacks.

Target is raised to $1.60 from $1.50. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.07
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMP as Hold (3) -

AMP's first half profit of $149m had already been pre-released and while the headline numbers were ugly, Morgans accentuates the positives including the announced capital return and its size, the decisions to refocus AMP Capital (AMPC) on private markets and repurchasing MUTB's stake in this business.

The broker downgrades underlying EPS forecasts by -2% and -7% for FY20 and FY21, respectively, but notes there are signs that the worst is behind the company.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $$1.66 from $1.87.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.13
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

First half earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The capital position appears strong, amid a $0.10 fully franked special dividend and a share buyback over the next 12 months of up to $200m.

While capital management and the acquisition of minority interests in AMP Capital may have sweetened the result, the broker believes the company still needs to show that declines in earnings and volumes are at a nadir before investors can become more comfortable.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $1.75 from $1.73.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.22
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

First half underlying net profit was in line with prior guidance. The focus was on capital after the life sale and AMP has delivered earlier than UBS expected in this regard.

Investors have been rewarded with capital returns although the broker considers the firepower is now largely exhausted as the remaining surplus will need to fund the transformation.

The company is expecting a trough in earnings in FY21 and dividends could underwhelm. Hence, at present, UBS prefers to remain on the sidelines, retaining a Neutral rating and $1.60 target.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.07
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse considers Arena REIT's FY20 result as proof of its portfolio's relative resilience. The impact of rent waivers due to covid-19 was minor. 

The company has guided to a distribution of 14.4-14.6c, ahead of the broker's pre-result estimate. The broker does not expect any material impact on the REIT's FY21 earnings outlook due to restrictions in Victoria. Earnings forecasts have been revised upwards for FY21-22. 

Attracted to the REIT's exposure to the childcare sector, Credit Suisse maintains its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $2.43 from $2.42. 

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.07
If ARF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Arena REIT's earnings result was broadly in line with the broker while guidance to FY21 dividend growth of 3-4% exceeds expectations.

A highlight was little impact from the virus, suggests the analyst, leading to little in the way of rent relief, and an increase in occupancy of only 5% compared to other listed REITs seeing 20% plus.

There is plenty of capital to be deployed, and tailwinds exist from an improving macro picture and a low cost of debt, the broker suggests. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.86 from $2.74.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.5
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Overweight (1) -

FY20 earnings per share were slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. First time distribution guidance for FY21 of 14.4-14.6c is stronger than forecast.

The broker was impressed with the results, noting the company's ability to provide investors with steady and predictable yield and growth. This stems from, in part, government support for education tenants.

Overweight. Target is $2.68. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.32
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Breville Group delivered a solid and in-line FY20 result, comments Credit Suisse, with its operating income growing 14.2% year on year (excluding one-off costs).

FY21 will see a continuation of geographic expansion, reports the broker, with the group launching its Sage brand in Italy and Portugal while transitioning to a direct model in Mexico. Forecasts for the first-half have been left mostly intact.

The broker remains positive on long term opportunities but the uncertain covid-19 environment compels it to maintain its Neutral rating. The target price has been decreased to $26.79 from $26.81.

Target price is $26.79 Current Price is $25.00 Difference: $1.79
If BRG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

The broker saw a strong result for Breville Group featuring solid revenue and earnings gains thanks to the work-from-home theme. It appears that a slowing in growth rates in May/June was more about a struggle with inventories than a fall-off in demand.

Meanwhile, Breville is now live in France and eyeing off Italy, Portugal and Mexico in FY21. The broker considers the weak share price reaction to simply reflect a solid run-up ahead of the result. Outperform retained, target rises to $26 from $20.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $25.00 Difference: $1
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

FY20 results met expectations. FY21 appears off to a strong start although the company, as usual, did not provide a trading update.

Morgan Stanley notes global expansion remains on track, with new launches expected in Italy, Portugal and Mexico. Strong demand for small kitchen appliances in the short term is expected to continue.

Target is raised to $29 from $28. Overweight rating. Industry: In-line.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $25.00 Difference: $4
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Add (1) -

Breville Group's FY20 result was in-line with Morgans forecast. However, the broker notes some sales slippage in May/June, bad debt provisioning and the add-back of one-off operating expense savings resulted in a miss versus the market’s lofty expectations.

The company declared a final dividend of 20.5 cents. The company also announced plans to expand geographically and Morgans estimates Italy and Portugal represent an approximate $60m yearly revenue opportunity over time, while Mexico may be a $30m opportunity.

No trading update was provided by the company.

The analyst makes around 2% positive changes to EPS forecasts in FY21-23 and notes the broker’s long-term view of the growth prospects for the business remains unchanged.

Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $27.46 from $27.

Target price is $27.46 Current Price is $25.00 Difference: $2.46
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Hold (3) -

FY20 net profit was strong albeit in line with expectations. Ord Minnett retains some uncertainty regarding short-term trading and the potential impact on the consumer from reduced forbearance and declining government stimulus.

Still, revenue growth remains impressive. The broker maintains a Hold rating, viewing the stock as relatively fully priced. Target is raised to $22.00 from $19.50.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $25.00 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

FY20 results were ahead of estimates. UBS likes the global expansion story and suspects the kitchen appliances industry has been a structural beneficiary of the pandemic.

While stock appears expensive on short-term multiples the broker considers a significant market premium is justified and makes material upgrades to estimates, retaining a Buy rating. Target is raised to $29.50 from $22.50.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $25.00 Difference: $4.5
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

The reported FY20 cash profit (NPAT) of Commonwealth Bank of Australia was -1.3% less than Morgans expectation.

The Bank declared a final fully franked dividend of 98 cents, which was higher than the broker had expected due to a timing difference on the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) dividend payout ratio cap.

Morgans believes the bank is expensive relative to its peers and reduces its FY22 cash EPS estimates by -13%. The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $66 from $67.50.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: minus $6.43 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $67.09, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Buy (1) -

FY20 results beat estimates and FY21 guidance is also ahead of expectations. The rise in the stock price, 36%, may appear extreme but Ord Minnett highlights that the stock is up only 10% from its February peak, which is in line with the average ASX software stock.

Going forward, the broker considers guidance is framed conservatively and expects the launch of Trust will provide more positive news flow. Buy retained. Target rises to $2.25 from $1.50.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.23
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

FY20 earnings beat estimates and Citi highlights the accounting approach to the impact of the pandemic is less conservative compared with peers.

The broker notes falling occupancy and softening leasing spreads signal landlords will increasingly have to reduce rents to maintain occupancy at high levels.

The broker estimates A-REIT earnings will settle -15-20% below FY20 levels, given the uncertainty.

Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral as the broker believes the results have left investors more focused on downside risks and questioning the underlying earnings outlook. Target is reduced to $2.86 from $2.99.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT's operational numbers were all in line with the broker's forecasts, with rent collections solid on 84% compared to other retail REITs. June sales were actually higher year on year.

Occupancy declined -0.8% and Target conversions will be a headwind in FY22, but sales and leasing spreads are positive. There's limited room for acquisitions but the broker likes a 7% free cash flow yield and defensiveness in the space. Outperform retained, target falls to $3.83 from $4.00 on a higher share count.

Target price is $3.84 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.54
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CQR as Underweight (5) -

FY20 operating earnings were well ahead of forecasts. Morgan Stanley finds it curious Charter Hall Retail is writing off just -$1.5m of uncollected rent, which totalled $16m in FY20, noting peers such as GPT Group ((GPT)) and SCA Property ((SCP)) have written off or expensed -70% and -90% of uncollected rent, respectively.

Underweight maintained. Target is $3.05. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Hold (3) -

FY20 operating earnings were ahead of forecasts. Ord Minnett was somewhat surprised that the investment mandate has broadened throughout FY20, although the acquisitions are low-risk and fairly valued.

Moreover, the portfolio appears fairly resilient as more than 50% of income exposure is to supermarkets and BP service stations. Hold retained. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.2
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Buy (1) -

FY20 result was slightly ahead of UBS estimates. A decision to capitalise much of the rent shortfall has been flagged, although UBS notes the level of credit provisioning for expected losses is relatively low compared to peers.

A decision not to provide guidance is considered reasonable, given the uncertainty. UBS envisages the distribution in the second half of $0.10 is likely to be the low point and expects an FY21 distribution of $0.225.

Buy rating and $3.50 target maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.2
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -

FY20 profit was a record and the portfolio has been upgraded with the sale of Cracow and the acquisition of Red Lake. Citi acknowledges being negative may appear churlish but still considers the stock is expensive, maintaining a Sell rating.

The main negative in FY20 was the, albeit anticipated, -$100m post-tax impairment at Mount Carlton. The final dividend of 9c beat Citi's estimates by 3c. Target is reduced to $5.40 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining’s FY20 net profit is in-line with consensus and slightly exceeds Credit Suisse's expectations. The final dividend at 9c was just below the broker's estimated 10c.

FY21 guidance stands at 670-730koz which includes 125-135koz at Red Lake and 204-230koz at Cowal. The broker believes these two assets could account for 600koz plus per annum in production in future years. 

Credit Suisse maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.28
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's FY20 earnings beat the broker by 9% and free cash flow by 11%, while FY21-22 guidance disappointed on higher than expected costs. The dividend beat expectation.

A big increase in the resource at Red Lake suggests the potential for a larger and longer-life operation than previously assumed, the broker notes, but this is offset by significant capex plans over the next three years and a long time frame. Underperform and $5.20 target retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Underweight (5) -

FY20 dividends were better than Morgan Stanley expected while FY21 production/cost guidance is in line.

However, cost forecasts are around 10% higher in FY22. Growth capital expenditure guidance of $260-290m at the mid point is 18% ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations.

Underweight rating. Target is $4.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: minus $1.32 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

FY21-22 guidance appears weak to UBS. Lower production is forecast amid higher costs and the broker reduces FY21 and FY22 net profit estimates by -5% and -13%, respectively.

Separately, the maiden resource at Red Lake is larger than expected and as the high-grade portion is close to the surface it might facilitate open pit extraction.

In sum, however, the broker believes optimism has been priced in and maintains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $4.90 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Flight Centre anticipates a FY20 pre-tax loss in a range of -$475-525m. Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy, raising the target to $13.50 from $12.50, given the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of global and domestic travel and the lack of catalysts outside of a successful vaccine.

Liquidity has improved and the monthly cash burn has reduced, although revenue is at just 7% of historical levels. Still, this likely rules out a second equity raising until early 2021, in the broker's view.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $1.22
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.69, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Flight Centre's trading update notes a better than expected liquidity position and lower cash burn in July 2020. Credit Suisse is pleased with the developments even though travel itself remains very uncertain.

Cost outcome for restructuring the leisure network has been better than guided, reports the broker, with half of the travel agency's stores closed worldwide and employees placed on furlough programs.

The broker predicts the travel agency will achieve only 27% of pre-covid-19 levels of total transaction value in FY21. FY20 Results will be declared on August 27.

Noting Flight Centre has adequate liquidity, Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with the target price reducing to $13.46 from $13.61.

Target price is $13.46 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $1.18
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.69, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Flight Centre has provided a trading update and released FY20 guidance ahead of its result on Monday. The FY20 loss is much bigger than the broker expected but does include extraordinary one-offs related to virus restrictions.

Otherwise, cash burn reduced in June to -$43m when -$65m was targeted thanks to government support and some increased revenue.

Last month's capital raising provides sufficient funds to ride though the current disruptions, the broker notes. Target rises to $12.50 from $11.25, Neutral retained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $0.22
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.69, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett assesses earnings have effectively "fallen off a cliff" after the outbreak of the pandemic, with the FY20 net loss greater than forecast.

The company has incurred a net cash burn of -$43m in July, having benefited from $10m from JobKeeper and $17m in revenue.

While cash burn is lower than expected, the sheer size of the loss in FY20 and increasing uncertainty surrounding the turnaround in domestic and international travel mean Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating.

Target is raised to $10.76 from $8.96 as FY23 estimates are upgraded because of a suspected unleashing of travel demand.

Target price is $10.76 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.69, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The broker expects Fortescue Metals to deliver a strong result and a "dividend bonanza" when it reports in a couple of weeks. A payout ratio of 78% is assumed, at the top of management's 50-80% range, for a 10% FY20 yield.

Increasing production and rising realised prices in a buoyant iron ore market keep the broker on Outperform with an $18 target.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.86 Difference: $0.14
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.78, suggesting downside of -17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

The FY20 result was slightly ahead of guidance but in line with expectations. Citi notes upside to FY21 from stronger development earnings, with an acceleration in growth of the development business as a result of the pandemic.

However, the stock has outperformed and the broker remains wary of the elevated valuation. Neutral rating. Target is raised to $18.50 from $16.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: $0.57
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman Group delivered an in-line FY20 result with growth seen across all three segments and relatively stable performance fees. But what has got Credit Suisse excited is the group's FY21 outlook which is much better than expected.

Funds under management will grow to $60bn in 12 months, expects the broker, with moderating performance fees to be offset by higher base management fees. 

Due to the group's strong balance sheet, self-funding strategy and a larger development playbook, the broker considers it well-positioned to keep generating attractive earnings growth in the medium term.

The group has guided to earnings growth of 9%, higher than the broker's pre-result estimate of 7.5%. 

Credit Suisse reaffirms its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $17.34 from $14.76.

Target price is $17.34 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group reported in line with guidance but FY21 guidance is ahead of expectation. The broker is assuming 9% earnings growth in FY21 but compound annual growth could hit 13.5% over the next two years if management executes as planned.

A flat FY20 dividend was a tad disappointing but Goodman is retaining capital to pursue developments. The broker sees the current valuation as "challenging at best" but priced for quality. Hence Outperform retained. Target rises to $19.86 from $16.77.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: $1.07
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

FY20 results were in line with expectations. While the company has provided FY21 guidance that suggests 9% growth Morgan Stanley retains a forecast of 10%, bearing in mind the track record of beating guidance.

The broker assesses FY21 is secure as is FY22, a result of e-commerce tailwinds. Overweight rating. Target is raised to $20.00 from $17.15. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: $2.07
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

FY20 operating profit was in line with Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker expects margins will remain elevated for the next few years, noting the company has guided to 9% growth in FY21, most of which will come from development.

While the stock is priced on very full multiples, the broker expects strong earnings growth will be delivered. Hold retained. Target rises to $18.10 from $13.10.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: $0.17
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman Group delivered on high expectations, UBS observes, with FY20 growth of 11.4%. The company is guiding to 9% growth in FY21.

An acceleration in demand from major customers is being experienced, in particular those exposed to the digital economy. UBS finds earnings clarity is high, given the large volume of development activity.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $17.50 from $17.00.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Hold (3) -

Judging from the broker's initial response to today's interim result, Iluka Resources disappointed on multiple items. No dividend, for starters, while Ord Minnett had penciled in 5c.

Cash flow in general seems to have come in well below forecast. Also, it seems while the separation of the MAC royalty business still goes ahead, Iluka seems intent to retain a larger equity stake (20%).

Revenues and profits are better than Ord Minnett expected.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $9.68 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.59, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans considers deal completion is the largest short-term catalyst for Karoon Energy and expects a gradual re-rating to continue as the market gains conviction.

Specifically, the finalisation on the Bauna transaction has gained traction after the company has been issued new environmental operational licenses by the Brazilian environmental regulator IBAMA.

The add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $1.56 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.56 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.74
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 56.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

With the company due to report its FY20 results on August 21 UBS upgrades FX assumptions. This results in a -10% downgrade to earnings estimates from FY23.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and lowers the target to $0.39 from $0.44.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.03
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie's initial response to today's quarterly update has been perfectly captured in the report's headline: "One quarter doesn’t make a summer". Underperform rating retained. Price target $17.50.

The analysts acknowledge the Q3 update proved well ahead of market forecasts but the drivers were volatile markets and trading income. The CET1 ratio at 11.60% is also highlighted as a positive surprise.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett analysts, in an initial response to today's quarterly trading update, are less enthusiastic than the market reponse post update.

Overall, say the analysts, today's update is more of a mixed bag, with the capital print the standout positive but credit quality starting to deteriorate.

Capital was meaningfully stronger than Ord Minnett expected, with NAB’s CET1 ratio in-line with CBA at 11.6%.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $2.99
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Hold (3) -

Upon first glance, it seems Newcrest Mining's FY20 release has disappointed Ord Minnett through production guidance for the year ahead, with Lihir to blame.

Otherwise, underlying net profits, capex guidance, debt and commentary around Cadia have all been received positively.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.47 Difference: $0.53
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEW as Overweight (1) -

The share price has fallen -20% over the last two days, likely because of lower long-term electricity price forecasts, and is now below Morgan Stanley's bear case scenario, considered a "compelling" entry point.

Using conservative merchant tail assumptions, the broker estimates that around 73% of the company's valuation is contracted, which compares favourably to most Australian renewables developments.

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating with a target price of $1.41. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.59
If NEW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

While Navigator Global Investments reported underlying FY20 earnings (EBITDA) around -7.6% below Macquarie forecasts, the company announced a transformational acquisition.

The performance fee of US$1.9m for the second half was a beat, according to the analyst, but the management fee was down -2 basis points compared to the previous corresponding period and assets under management (AUM) were down -US4.9bn since June 2019.

The acquisition is to secure minority economic interests in six established and specialised alternative asset management boutiques from Dyal Capital Partners. Macquarie highlights this will increase the company's earnings diversification and the additional cashflow derived should support future dividends.

The Outperform rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $2.23 from $1.58.

Target price is $2.23 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.3
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold as, while FY20 results were slightly below expectations, the company's new partnership with Dyal Capital offers a compelling economic and strategic opportunity.

The broker considers the stock cheap, noting an FY21 cash/PE ratio of 10x and dividend yield of around 7.2%, and this is ahead of the contribution from the new partnership. Target is raised to $2.30 from $1.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.37
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Overall, FY21 guidance for 720-820,000 ounces is softer than expected. Citi reduces estimates for FY21 earnings per share by -19% and FY22 by -4%.

As a result, the target is reduced to $15.90 from $16.30. Neutral maintained. The company will report its FY20 results on August 19.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: $1.77
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.00, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

FY21 production and cost guidance is weaker than Morgan Stanley expected. New production expected from the recently-acquired Yandal has meant that FY22-23 guidance is ahead of forecasts.

The broker does not include Yandal in operating estimates but values it at around $183m. FY22 capital expenditure to achieve production is $175m, which compares with Morgan Stanley's former expectations of $11.3m as most of the expansionary expenditure had been assessed as completed.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $12.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.00, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Lighten (4) -

FY21 production and cost guidance is below Ord Minnett's expectations. Growth capital expenditure for coming years appears modest, given the Super Pit operations are expected to get to 1m ozpa in FY23.

A faster ramp up of operations is anticipated as Bronzewing is incorporated into the greater Yandal/Jundee operations, taking output to 400,000 ozpa in 2-3 years.

Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating and $12.20 target.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: minus $1.93 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.00, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Sell (5) -

FY21-22 production/cost guidance is significantly worse than UBS expected. The broker downgrades FY21 net profit estimates by -17% and believes its Sell thesis has been vindicated.

The upcoming catalyst is the Super Pit update scheduled for September. The broker expects a vision is likely to be outlined for a greater contribution from higher grade underground ore and additional open pit opportunities.

Sell rating is maintained. Target reduced to $13.50 from $15.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.00, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Buy (1) -

FY20 retail earnings (EBIT) at $185m were ahead of Citi's estimates. The broker does not expect the strength to be repeated and forecasts an FY21 outcome of $160m amid a challenging sales backdrop and normalised cost base.

Earnings risk is biased to the downside across the discretionary sector, in the broker's view. Neutral rating and target raised to $19.30 from $18.50.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $18.05 Difference: $1.25
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.74, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Premier Investments expects a second-half retail operating income of $58.7-59.7m which is up 11% versus the second half FY19 even as sales decline -18% year on year.

This was driven by a higher share of online sales (with a higher margin) and temporary cost reduction, Credit Suisse reports.

The broker does not expect cost savings to repeat in the second half of FY21. Sales growth forecast for the first half of FY21 assumes a longer period of Melbourne store closures. 

In view of the persisting near term uncertainty on discretionary retail trading, Credit Suisse reiterates its Neutral rating with the target price rising to $18.12 from $17.56.

The company will report its FY20 results in September 2020.

Target price is $18.12 Current Price is $18.05 Difference: $0.07
If PMV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.74, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

After its pre-result update in July, QBE Insurance Group's result was broadly in-line.

The group has also confirmed its catastrophe treaties include business interruption which limits its exposure outside of the UK to -US$20m. The downside risk is much more manageable now, comments the broker.

While the insurer faces headwinds in the form of lower gross written premium (GWP), the broker expects QBE Insurance Group to be able to hold its circa 94% combined operating ratio in the coming periods.

The stock continues to trade at a discount and Credit Suisse maintains its Outperform rating with a target price of $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.26
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Underperform (5) -

QBE Insurance Group had pre-released the first half FY20 results. As a result, Macquarie gleans additional information from yesterday's release including clarity around reinsurance cover for covid-19 losses, a first half dividend of 4 cents and better first half investment income than previously expected.

The broker highlights momentum continues for the premium rate and the attritional claims ratio, with management optimistic this would continue for greater than 12 months.

The broker remains concerned that large portions of the operations remain non-core to the insurer's DNA.

The Underperform rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $8.00 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: minus $2.74 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

First half results were broadly in line with the pre-release. Morgan Stanley is reassured by the extra detail and the 4c first half dividend was a pleasant surprise, given none was expected.

QBE Insurance will increase its investment allocation to growth assets to 15% over the longer term, the broker notes. US crop planting and yields have been strong, while reinsurance has protected against recent hail.

Overweight retained. Target is $12.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.76
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

The FY20 results for QBE Insurance Group had largely been pre-released and Morgans states that many of the factors leading to a disappointing profit (NPAT) loss of -US$712m obscured improving underlying profitability trends driven by the 'Brilliant Basics' program and an increasingly favourable global pricing environment.

Accordingly, the broker lifts FY20 net loss forecasts, but only slightly reduces EPS forecasts for FY21-FY22 on lower investment yields.

The Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $12.07 from $11.28. 

Target price is $12.07 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.33
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett found the first half result reflected a poor insurance outcome as one-off factors countered a strong improvement in underlying margins. There was more detail regarding reinsurance cover that should provide protection.

Earnings upgrades reflect a strong improvement in the attritional claims ratio. The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $12 from $11 to reflect reduced uncertainty around business interruption claims costs.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.26
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

With the first half result largely pre-announced, UBS notes the main news centred on strong operating profitability and a firm premium rate backdrop.

The insurer appears well-placed to grow revenue and expand underlying margins. Furthermore, there is ample insulation from reinsurance protections. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $12.30 from $11.50.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.56
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Underperform (5) -

South32 said it had reached an agreement to sell its TEMCO smelter (downstream manganese processing) to GFC alliance for a nominal value, which exceeds Macquarie's previous valuation of -US$20m.

The broker highlights the company's earnings outlook remains challenged with a spot price scenario generating -50% lower earnings estimates for FY21 and -30%-35% lower estimates for FY22-FY25.

The Underperform rating is maintained. The target price is unchanged at $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 has announced the divestment of TEMCO and Morgan Stanley considers this a positive step towards optimising the portfolio through divesting loss-making assets.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating with a target of $2.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.15
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley moves to a zero dividend in perpetuity. A hot issue currently is whether the company has too much debt, which underscores the risk of an equity raising.

The broker does not believe the company will have to raise equity and acknowledges free cash flow is robust.

Nevertheless, no dividend was declared in the second half of FY20 and the broker believes it would make financial and strategic sense to extend this.

Overweight rating. Target is $21. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.53 Difference: $1.47
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.89, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes Telstra Corp's FY20 result was in-line with the broker's estimates. Better than expected performance of its data and IP and network applications and services (NAS) businesses offset the weaker fixed broadband and mobile business, highlights the broker.

The outlook for FY21 has the broker disappointed with the company expecting an operating income of $6.5-7bn, below Credit Suisse's $7.1bn.

After already reducing its forecasts to incorporate the impact of the pandemic, the broker has now reduced FY21 forecasts for Telstra's mobile and fixed earnings.

Outperform rating retained with the target price decreasing to $3.90 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.79
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

After Telstra's FY20 underlying earnings (EBITDA) result of $7.4bn, Macquarie focuses on the softer-than-expected FY21 outlook, which may put the dividend at risk.

In addition to covid-19 impacts, the result highlights ongoing operational challenges, notes the broker. The total financial year 2020 dividend was 16 cents.

The analyst concludes the key to earnings going forward remains Mobiles, given it is the biggest contributor to the group. Macquarie revises EPS estimates down by -21%, -18% and -15% for FY21, FY22 and FY23, respectively.

The Outperform rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $3.50 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.39
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Underweight (5) -

FY20 results were in line with expectations. The weaker FY21 outlook includes an estimated -$600m hit to operating earnings (EBITDA) spread over FY20-21.

Morgan Stanley envisages some risk to the dividend in FY21, expecting $0.15 compared with consensus forecasts of $0.16.

Underweight rating retained. Target is $3.20. Industry view: In-Line.

[We have since received confirmation the price target has been reduced to $3]

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans states the FY20 result for Telstra was in-line with guidance, but the FY21 guidance was below the broker's and consensus forecasts and was negatively impacted by the ongoing challenges of covid-19. This was due to reduced international travel and some short-term timing delays in relation to cost saving, notes the analyst.

The company declared a final dividend of 8 cents, bringing the FY20 total to 16 cents, however, the analyst explains after FY23 the NBN one-offs effectively disappear and there will no longer be support from special dividends.

The company reduced its FY23 return on capital target to greater than 7% from 10%, which has implications for both EPS and DPS sustainability, warns the broker.

Morgans materially reduces forecasts for EPS and DPS and expects the company to declare a 12 cent fully franked dividend in FY21 and beyond.

The rating has declined to Hold from Add. The target price is decreased to $3.21 from $3.73.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.1
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

UBS was disappointed with Telstra's FY20 result with the company signalling a deeper-than-expected earnings trough in FY21.

The broker asserts, even if Telstra were to achieve its return on investment target, it would need to operate at the most aggressive end of current settings to support the $0.16 dividend.

Free cash flow remains robust and the broker accepts the possibility that Telstra may adjust its policy parameters to maintain its dividend. Additionally, UBS assesses the market has already priced in a cut to the dividend to $0.14 so the downside appears limited.

Buy rating and $3.70 target maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.59
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

The second half was difficult, Citi observes, but the worst may be behind the company. A rebound in China is good news as well. The Americas still appears tough and the plan is to halve the size of the Americas volume and exit lower-margin commercial wines.

Broader feedback from other liquor companies makes Citi positive, however higher grape costs are expected to hurt for longer than just FY21. The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $12.65 from $10.90.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' China depletions growth in June should be taken with some caution, suggest Credit Suisse, noting June is a seasonally low month with the Chinese new year one of the key wine consumption occasions.

North America's operating income was down -$115m, with some of the drop due to the fall-off in luxury wine, the broker adds. This is expected to come back in time.

The broker expects with consumer patterns improving, the second half of FY21 will show strong growth over the first half of FY20. Europe's FY22 forecast has been upgraded materially.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $12.30 from $10.45.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates released FY20 results in-line with its pre-announcement, but flagged cost outs and signs of improving volumes in China, leading Macquarie to upgrade its rating to Outperform.

The new strategic agenda outlines plans for a further -$50m of cost savings on top of the -35m cost out program already announced, notes the broker.

The analyst materially lifts the target price on an improved medium-term growth outlook and lowered risk premium on Chinese business as volumes recover.

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The target price is increased to $14.90 from $11.50.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $2.05
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

FY20 results were within guidance ranges. Morgan Stanley observes Treasury Wine still needs to trade through the short-term disruptions but the depletion trends in China are encouraging.

The broker considers the risk/reward is now more evenly balanced and the stock is cheap in the context of market and peer valuations.

Overweight rating maintained. Target is raised to $14.00 from $13.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $1.15
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Lighten (4) -

FY20 net profit was below forecasts. The dividend was in line with expectations. A faster-than-expected recovery in Asia and $50m in supply chain cost savings from FY23 were positive aspects of the result.

Ord Minnett assesses the shape of the recovery may be uneven and customs issues could re-emerge. Wine oversupply in the US has weighed and the company is now responding with a commercial review. The broker retains a Lighten rating and raises the target to $11.50 from $10.00.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

FY20 earnings (EBITS) were in line with guidance with early improvement in China noted. UBS is cautious about the short term because of the potential impact of de-stocking and the impact of the online mix on pricing.

Estimates for the short term are broadly unchanged, amid large upgrades to Asian earnings offset by higher corporate costs.

Still the broker is comforted by the pace of the Asian recovery and cash flow, retaining a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $12.50 from $11.80.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses the Scarborough outlook and the potential for 8mtpa worth of gas to be delivered. The questions centre over the costs to produce.

Meanwhile, the broker reassesses the credit metrics, noting delays to growth projects has meant Woodside Petroleum's debt position continues to improve.

Nevertheless, Citi does not yet believe that Scarborough de-bottlenecking will encourage the market to pay for growth. Neutral/High Risk rating maintained. Target is reduced to $21.38 from $23.64.

Target price is $21.38 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: $0.98
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.53, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Management has signalled the dividend payout ratio will be maintained at 80% till the second half of FY20 but Credit Suisse expects this will stretch till FY22. Operating costs are guided to be 33% higher in 2020.

Woodside Petroleum has also guided to 20-29% spot LNG exposure in the second half which makes it the most leveraged to LNG versus its peers, points out the broker. Capacity at Scarborough may be increased to 9mtpa from 7.5mtpa.     

Growth will come to fruition, insists the broker but also suggests investors need to be patient. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $25.20 from $25.24.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: $4.8
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.53, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's expectations were exceeded by the reported first half underlying profit (NPAT) for Woodside Petroleum, but cashflow was below the broker's estimates.

Operating costs increased due to a strengthening Australian dollar and lower labour productivity during the pandemic, according to the analyst.

Managements comments on merger and acquisitions were broadly in-line with Macquarie's thoughts, and the result doesn't materially alter the analyst's view.

The Outperform rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $23.95 from $24.

Target price is $23.95 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: $3.55
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.53, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Equal-weight (3) -

First half financials signal Woodside Petroleum is maintaining its 80% pay-out ratio. Morgan Stanley believes M&A or a greater alignment at North West Shelf offer the potential for re-rating but this may take some time.

The stock has underperformed recently, the broker notes, given the uncertainty over its growth profile. Target is $20. Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.53, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Hold (3) -

An unusual spike in spot cargoes during the second quarter, combined with substantial weakness in spot LNG prices, saw Woodside Petroleum post a tough first half earnings result, according to Morgans.

The broker expects earnings to be further squeezed in the second half, due to further softening in spot LNG prices and lower (oil-linked) contracted volumes.

The analyst ponders if a new focus upon acquisitions by the company is a detour or a larger pivot.

The company maintained an elevated 80% payout ratio, with the dividend falling in-line with earnings at US$0.32 cents.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $22.35 from $22.70.

Target price is $22.35 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: $1.95
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.53, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Buy (1) -

First half net profit, while -28% below the prior corresponding half, was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts largely because of lower operating  costs.

Ord Minnett anticipates the current quarter will likely experience the weakest liquefied natural gas prices but the recovery in Brent prices means most of the headwinds are behind the company.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $25.80 from $25.70.

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: $5.4
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.53, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates Z1P as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Zip Co with an Underperform rating and a target price of $5.45.

The broker makes the distinction from the more common instalment products, by noting the company's product is account-based and consumers get the cashflow and budgeting benefit of deferring payments. Hence, revenues are primarily derived from customers as opposed to merchants.

By contrast, the recently acquired QuadPay provides an instalment product with revenues primarily derived from merchants. It also offers exposure to the materially larger US market, highlights Macquarie.

The analyst notes the company's product design in Australia has a longer average duration and an inherently higher risk profile than many of its peers. Despite being a clear No 2 in the market, the broker notes its growth has slowed more recently and compared to peers the company has taken a more conservative approach.

Macquarie concludes, given the early-stage nature of the company, the broker's valuation is highly sensitive to a number of modelling assumptions and lists many potential risks.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources