Australian Broker Call
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December 05, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - | Beach Energy | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
IAG - | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
STO - | Santos | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
Overnight Price: $12.40
Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -
In general, the AGM/results season for Contractors under Macquarie's research coverage resulted in most meeting or surprising to
upside versus expectations held by the broker and consensus.
Regarding ALS Ltd, quality shone through, according to the analyst, as margins showed resilience despite soft GeoChem volumes and headwinds in pharma. It's thought the company is well placed for a volume recovery.
Outperform. Target $13.60.
Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.40 Difference: $1.2
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.7, implying annual growth of 13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.22
Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -
In a review of stocks under coverage by Morgans in the Gaming sector, the top two picks remain Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) and Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)).
Elsewhere, the broker reviews BlueBet Holdings after a "robust" AGM trading update revealing significant active customer growth, increased market share and an encouraging net win margin.
Morgans lowers its FY24 profit estimate due to delays in US state expansion by state regulators. The Add rating is maintained but the target falls to 70c from 80c.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.48
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 218% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.47
Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
In a review of Australian upstream energy stocks under coverage, Morgan Stanley has a new order of preference led by Karoon Energy ((KAR)), Woodside Energy ((WDS)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)).
While large-cap upstream stocks had material downward consensus revisions following November market updates,
the broker feels local headwinds are now sufficiently priced in. An Attractive industry view is retained and Brent forecasts remain steady.
Regarding Beach Energy, the broker upgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Underweight following a -20% fall in share price over the last year.
Morgan Stanley's target rises to $1.65 from $1.56 on improving free cash flow (FCF) growth prospects from Waitsia, and the repricing of the Lattice contract with Origin Energy.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.185
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of -2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 34.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 59.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.39
Shaw and Partners rates CBO as Buy (1) -
The European Comission has released a maiden olive oil production forecast of 2.4m tonnes for 2023-2024, reaffirming that the market will be tight says Shaw and Partners.
The broker anticipates Cobram Estate Olives quadrupling net profit in FY24, as high output prices likely persist and the company likely continues to take market share. The broker also notes FY24 is an 'on-year' for the company's groves, and it should benefit from better volumes.
The Buy rating and target price of $1.75 are retained.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.36
If CBO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.8, implying annual growth of -3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 77.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 422.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.08
Bell Potter rates DYL as Buy (1) -
A successful drill program has seen Deep Yellow increase the mineral resource estimate of its Tumas project, extending the production life of the asset by around 1.5 years. The drilling program supported a 6.9m pound increase in the resource estimate.
Bell Potter estimates following this announcement the Tumas project has a production life of 23.5 years, but the continuing drilling program hopes to extend this beyond 30 years, which the broker notes would require an additional 25m pounds.
The Buy rating and target price of $1.81 are retained.
Target price is $1.81 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.73
If DYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EDV ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $5.09
Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Underweight (5) -
Management will be focusing on Endeavour Group's Hotel division at tomorrow's investor day, where strategic direction has been under question, notes Morgan Stanley, following variances from expectations held at the time of the de-merger.
Because of this gap between management execution and shareholders expectations, along with structural challenges from both gambling regulations and declining liquor volumes, the broker stays with an Underweight rating.
Target $5.60. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.51
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of -1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.06
Shaw and Partners rates EM2 as Buy (1) -
Testing from Eagle Mountain Mining confirmed potential for lower capital and operating costs and a lower environmental footprint at the Oracle Ridge project, comparative to conventional processing, as the company aims to become a low-cost producer of low-emission copper.
Recent testing has identified a simpler processing method for Oracle Ridge, with numerous cost and environmental benefits. Shaw and Partners points out the testwork could provide as much as a 30% increase in copper head grade and improved mining productivity.
The Buy rating and target price of 30 cents are retained.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.242
If EM2 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 417% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of -1.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of -1.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EXP EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $0.18
Morgans rates EXP as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -
Morgans initiates coverage on adventure tourism company Experience Co with an Add rating. Investors should get set on the stock, in the broker's opinion, as it should re-rate in line with the ongoing recovery of inbound international tourists into A&NZ.
Given leverage to these tourists, Experience Co will be the last of travel companies under the broker's coverage to fully recover post-covid. The recovery is expected to be supported by Australia being recently added to the approve destination status (ADS) list for China.
Earnings for Experience Co are split roughly evenly across domestic and inbound tourism, explain the analysts. A target price of 30c is set.
The company's portfolio of assets across A&NZ include Skydive, Treetops Adventure, Reef Unlimited and Wild Bush Luxury.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.12
If EXP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GNP GENUSPLUS GROUP LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $1.22
Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -
GenusPlus Group, alongside joint venture partner ACCIONA, has been awarded a $1.4bn design and construct contract for the HumeLink East project. With GenusPlus Group holding a 25% interest in the joint venture, Bell Potter has accounted for this contract win in its model.
The broker does expect GenusPlus Group's earnings margins to be modestly lower as it delivers the HumeLink project, with the contract outlining a lower margin, lower risk structure. The broker also accounts for -$20m in capital investment required in the next two years.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.50.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.28
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.83
UBS rates IAG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
While UBS has previously voiced concerns around claims inflation weighing on earnings for Insurance Australia Group, the broker feels repricing action, which started slowly through 2022, could support optimism around margins if pace continues for another twelve months.
The broker sees possibility that Insurance Australia Group could exceed its mid-term margin guidance in FY25 amid ongoing repricing and rising yields.
UBS anticipates insurance will remain an attractive sector for investors into 2024. The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target price increases to $6.00 from $5.10.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.83 Difference: $0.17
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.00, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LTR LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $1.36
Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -
The analyst at Macquarie highlights material construction progress since August at the Kathleen Valley project after a recent site visit. It's thought the project is well funded to first production following the recently completed debt and equity raisings.
The Outperform rating and $2.70 target are unchanged.
In the broker's opinion, recovery rates at the flotation circuits and underground development at Mt Mann will be management's key near term focus areas.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $1.34
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 75.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates LTR as Neutral (3) -
In a review of its valuation of Liontown Resources amid lower lithium pricing, UBS notes the company is less exposed to current weak spodumene pricing, comparative to peers, given production from its Kathleen Valley project is not anticipated unitl FY25.
The broker points out there is potential that Kathleen Valley will be ramping up into an improving lithium market. Accounting for the company's recent capital raise, UBS finds the company well funded for its Kathleen Valley project build.
The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $2.80.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.14
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 75.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED
Energy Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $14.24
Ord Minnett rates MND as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett points out Monadelphous Group has announced over $850m in new contracts so far in FY24, well ahead of the five-year average of $470m for the first five months of the financial year.
Management sees a significant pipeline of opportunities in the resources and energy space, notes the broker, and increasing expenditure around decarbonisation efforts, with high activity for energy transition metals and iron ore.
The Hold rating and $14.25 taget are unchanged.
Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $14.24 Difference: $0.01
If MND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.40 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.2, implying annual growth of 16.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.30 cents and EPS of 77.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 18.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.59
Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -
Following Metcash's 1H results, Macquarie lowers its earnings forecasts due to higher expected interest costs but retains the $3.90 target and Neutral rating.
Interest costs have worsened by -18.5% since the April results to -$44.9m, and the broker expects further upward pressure on average interest rates and average debt balances.
Hardware sales were mixed in a difficult environment, observes the analyst, while Food volumes turned positive in Q2 as inflation pressures eased and Retailers (buyers from Metcash) invested in value.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.31
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.60 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.80 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -
Metcash has reported on its first half, with UBS noting its food and liquor segments performed better than the broker had expected, while hardware disappointed. While underlying earnings of $247m declined -3% year-on-year, net profit of $141m increased 12%.
Earnings from the food segment lifted 4% and liquor lifted 3%, while hardware declined -5% largely on a -12% decline from Independent Hardware Group (IHG). UBS points to both slower sales and activity and rising costs to explain the hardware result.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.10 from $4.25.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.51
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $26.20
Macquarie rates PMV as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie raises its target for Premier Investments to $26 from $23 and maintains a Neutral rating following the recent AGM trading update.
Initial thoughts by the broker were summarised previously by FNArena as follows:
In an early response to today's AGM update, Macquarie highlights guidance for $200m in H1 EBIT (pre-AASB 16) is some 30% ahead of its own forecast and 8% better than market consensus.
In addition, Macquarie notes the strategic review is now completed and its conclusion points towards "significant future growth opportunities" for Smiggle, Peter Alexander and the core apparel brands in the group.
Guided EBIT is still -10% below last year's result, with the broker pointing towards a challenging discretionary retail environment which is putting pressure both on sales and on margins.
Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $26.20 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 159.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.2, implying annual growth of -8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 127.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.8, implying annual growth of 1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.55
Morgans rates SGR as Add (1) -
In a review of stocks under coverage by Morgans in the Gaming sector, the top two picks remain Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) and Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)).
Elsewhere, the broker lowers the FY24 and FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for Star Entertainment by -16% and -9%, respectively, due to a potential delay in opening for the Queen's Wharf Brisbane and softer trading run-rates.
The target falls to 70c form 90c. Add.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.155
If SGR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 69.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of 36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates STO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -
In a review of Australian upstream energy stocks under coverage, Morgan Stanley has a new order of preference led by Karoon Energy ((KAR)), Woodside Energy ((WDS)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)).
While large-cap upstream stocks had material downward consensus revisions following November market updates,
the broker feels local headwinds are now sufficiently priced in. An Attractive industry view is retained and Brent forecasts remain steady.
Regarding Santos, the broker's rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target falls to $7.71 from $8.88, based on reduced balance sheet flexibility, and higher environmental planning litigation risk relative to peers.
The lower valuation is also partly due to lower guidance provided at the company's Investor Day presentation on November 22, along with updated commodity and currency assumptions by Morgan Stanley.
Target price is $7.71 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $0.89
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 36.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.41 cents and EPS of 74.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.33 cents and EPS of 66.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.38
Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie lowers its target for Strike Energy by -16% to 48c mainly on lower assumed volumes following appraisal results from the South-Erregulla-3 (SE3) well situated within the South Erregulla gas field in WA.
Net pay at the SE3 well was 13m, relatively consistent with SE-1 (14m) and SE-2 (16m), notes the broker. A more consevative 250PJ volume forecast is now adopted for South Erregulla, down from 400PJ.
The analyst considers Strike Energy an attractive takeover target. Outperform.
Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.1
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 142.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.05
Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes odds are in favour (60-65%) of Suncorp Group's banking arm sale to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) being approved by the Australian Competition Tribunal (ACT). A decision is expected around February next year.
In the event of an approval, the broker suggests the group's share price could rally between 5-12% as the market is currently undervaluing the worth of the Bank division.
More negatively, the around $4.1-4.2bn of potential capital returns will take time to complete, cautions the broker, noting some investors are concerned about EPS dilution in the interim.
However, Morgan Stanley notes Suncorp could pre-prepare a submission for ATO approval for an off-market buyback to reduce
delays.
The broker retains its Overweight rating and $15.70 target. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.05 Difference: $1.65
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.71
Morgans rates TAH as Add (1) -
In a review of stocks under coverage by Morgans in the Gaming sector, the top two picks remain Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) and Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)).
Elsewhere, the broker highlights softer trading conditions due to weaker macroeconomic conditions for Tabcorp Holdings, resulting in a -23% reduction in the profit forecast for FY24.
Increased competition from smaller bookies like BlueBet Holdings is also impacting Tabcorp, explains the analyst.
The target falls to $1.00 from $1.15. Add.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.29
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 55.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of -11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 92.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
THL TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.40
Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -
While remaining confident Tourism Holdings Rentals will attain its $100m profit target, Ord Minnett now expects this will be achieved in 2025, as opposed to the earlier expectation for FY25, given a more challenging outlook in North America.
Used motorhome pricing in that region is experiencing pressures as the pandemic-induced super cycle works its way through the dealer network, explains the broker.
Thankfully, North American divisional earnings are immaterial relative to the Australian and New Zealand divisions, points out the analyst.
The NZ$5.62 target and Buy rating are retained.
Current Price is $3.40. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.73 cents and EPS of 35.15 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.65 cents and EPS of 39.96 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.79
Bell Potter rates TLS as Hold (3) -
With Telstra Group announcing an intended -$546m investment into 'mid band' spectrum, Bell Potter has modestly downgraded its earnings per share expectations by -0.2%, -0.9% and -0.8% through to FY26.
The broker does, however, point it does not assume additional growth from this investment, but is treating the spectrum expansion as necessary to support growth already accounted for, but does feel the investment strengthens Telstra Group's domestic market position.
The Hold rating and target price of $4.15 are retained.
Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.36
If TLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 8.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.88
Ord Minnett rates URW as Buy (1) -
While risks remain around a heavy debt load, Ord Minnett believes the recovery is on track for Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, following the release of a "strong" 3Q trading update. Shares are still undervalued in the broker's view, despite a 37% rally since late-October.
Positively, the broker highlights debt is nearly 100% interest-rate-hedged until circa 2027.
The 3Q update reflected strong trading conditions, according to the analyst, and management upgraded FY23 guidance for adjusted recurring earnings per security to EUR9.50 from Eur9.30-9.50. It's thought strong leasing activity augers well for future rents.
Buy rating retained. Target is steady at $7.80.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $2.92
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 127.12 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.82 cents and EPS of 95.50 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $30.35
Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Overweight (1) -
In a review of Australian upstream energy stocks under coverage, Morgan Stanley has a new order of preference led by Karoon Energy ((KAR)), Woodside Energy and Origin Energy ((ORG)).
While large-cap upstream stocks had material downward consensus revisions following November market updates,
the broker feels local headwinds are now sufficiently priced in. An Attractive industry view is retained and Brent forecasts remain steady.
Regarding Woodside Energy, Morgan Stanley's target price falls by -15% to $35 to partly reflect company guidance at the November 8 investor day and regular mark-to-market changes for commodity and currency assumptions.
The Overweight rating is unchanged.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.35 Difference: $4.65
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.57, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 200.69 cents and EPS of 250.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 205.22 cents and EPS of 256.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.0, implying annual growth of -4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WTC WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $67.43
Ord Minnett rates WTC as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett describes WiseTech Global as a "Kingmaker". The company's core product suite CargoWise is utilised by customers that have outperformed non-using peers in 2023, in terms of market share gains and share price performance, explains the analyst.
The broker believes this outperformance stems from greater efficiency and productivity for CargoWise users, especially freight forwarders, as the market for logistics naturally selects the lowest-cost provider.
As the market share for each customers grows, WiseTech receives important revenue growth, notes the analyst, whereas most software companies have to rely upon increasing customer numbers.
The $95 target and Accumulate rating are unchanged.
Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $67.43 Difference: $27.57
If WTC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $76.92, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 77.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.9, implying annual growth of 23.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 104.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.2, implying annual growth of 35.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $102.80
Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -
In a positive for growth of Xero's UK subscriptions, according to Citi, the UK government has reiterated timelines for the next phase of Making Tax Digital, which were revised/delayed last December.
The broker also anticipates upside for FY26/27 subscriptions should the next phase of Making Tax Digital be implemented as planned. To take full advantage, it's thought the company will need to launch an updated Xero Go product in the UK to cater to sole traders.
The Buy rating and target price of $129.40 are retained.
Target price is $129.40 Current Price is $102.80 Difference: $26.6
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $110.62, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 167.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.4, implying annual growth of 65.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 101.4. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ALQ | ALS Ltd | $12.30 | Macquarie | 13.60 | 12.80 | 6.25% |
BBT | BlueBet Holdings | $0.22 | Morgans | 0.70 | 0.80 | -12.50% |
BPT | Beach Energy | $1.45 | Morgan Stanley | 1.65 | 1.56 | 5.77% |
DYL | Deep Yellow | $1.03 | Bell Potter | 1.81 | 1.84 | -1.63% |
GNP | GenusPlus Group | $1.22 | Bell Potter | 1.50 | 1.40 | 7.14% |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $5.91 | UBS | 6.00 | 5.10 | 17.65% |
LTR | Liontown Resources | $1.24 | UBS | 1.50 | N/A | - |
MTS | Metcash | $3.53 | UBS | 4.10 | 4.25 | -3.53% |
PMV | Premier Investments | $25.73 | Macquarie | 26.00 | 23.00 | 13.04% |
SGR | Star Entertainment | $0.53 | Morgans | 0.70 | 0.90 | -22.22% |
STO | Santos | $6.75 | Morgan Stanley | 7.71 | 8.88 | -13.18% |
STX | Strike Energy | $0.36 | Macquarie | 0.48 | 0.59 | -18.64% |
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | $0.69 | Morgans | 1.00 | 1.15 | -13.04% |
WDS | Woodside Energy | $29.58 | Morgan Stanley | 35.00 | 41.00 | -14.63% |
Summaries
ALQ | ALS Ltd | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.40 |
BBT | BlueBet Holdings | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.22 |
BPT | Beach Energy | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.47 |
CBO | Cobram Estate Olives | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $1.39 |
DYL | Deep Yellow | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $1.08 |
EDV | Endeavour Group | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.09 |
EM2 | Eagle Mountain Mining | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.06 |
EXP | Experience Co | Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.18 |
GNP | GenusPlus Group | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $1.22 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $5.83 |
LTR | Liontown Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.36 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.36 | ||
MND | Monadelphous Group | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $14.24 |
MTS | Metcash | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.59 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.59 | ||
PMV | Premier Investments | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $26.20 |
SGR | Star Entertainment | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.55 |
STO | Santos | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.82 |
STX | Strike Energy | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.38 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $14.05 |
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.71 |
THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.40 |
TLS | Telstra Group | Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $3.79 |
URW | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.88 |
WDS | Woodside Energy | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $30.35 |
WTC | WiseTech Global | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $67.43 |
XRO | Xero | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $102.80 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 17 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 8 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Tuesday 05 December 2023
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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