Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ABB as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates research coverage on founder-led Aussie Broadband with a Buy rating, highlighting an expanding network infrastructure, comprehensive offerings, and a strong value proposition.

The broker also notes risks, including elevated competition and regulatory headwinds, particularly regarding wholesale pricing.

Compared to larger peers, the analyst highlights retail prices are attractive given ownership of its fibre network, and the company is unencumbered by legacy operations.

The mid-July launch of Buddy has already attracted more than 4,500 subscribers, and Citi expects adoption to accelerate.

A $4.40 target is set.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.71
If ABB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure announced the sale of its Plarium Global division as part of a review of Pixel United assets, excluding social casino, with a sale price range of US$620m–US$820m, at the upper end of the range, Citi notes at first glance.

The sale is reliant on financial metrics being met over 2025–2028.

Citi highlights Big Fish social media still needs to be sold and there are risks as bookings data have softened.

The broker will review the company’s earnings estimates after FY24 results are released tomorrow, but believes the sale alleviates one of the major bear points for the stock.

Citi believes there are "sufficient reasons" to remain positive and retains a Buy rating. Target price $74.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $65.61 Difference: $8.39
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.25, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Aristocrat Leisure is set to report FY24 results on Nov 13.

The broker expects EBITDA of $2,087m, a rise of 15% year-on-year, including contributions from Neogames, cost management, and ongoing robust performance from US gaming operations, with a 140bps increase in gaming market share.

The broker notes capital management could also provide an upside surprise.

Morgan Stanley raises EBITDA estimates by an average of 9% through FY29, reflecting an improved outlook on iGaming monetisation.

Target price increases to $67 due to higher earnings and an uplift in the stock's valuation. Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $65.61 Difference: $1.39
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.25, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reviews asset and wealth managers for opportunities in retirement income.

The broker's global Blue Paper on longevity estimates US$400bn in incremental revenue from retirement opportunities by 2028 for asset/wealth managers through a "retirement ecosystem mindset."

Macquarie Bank (MQG) is viewed as best positioned. Overweight rated.

Morgan Stanley believes investors have been surprised by AMP's improving flows in recent quarters. The broker notes better engagement with financial planners and distribution, as well as differentiation of its North platform with MyNorth Lifetime products.

Target price lifts 15% to $1.70. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.18
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Abacus Storage King has upgraded FY25 payout guidance to 6.2c from 6.1c, with a payout ratio in the range of 90% to 100%.

The broker highlights management's upbeat tone on 1Q25 trading conditions, with an average rent in the established portfolio of $372 per sqm. The occupancy rate for 1Q25 remained at 91%, with balance sheet gearing at 28.9%.

Citi believes self-storage in Australia remains a "defensive" sub-sector with stable growth rates, occupancy, and ongoing rental increases.

The REIT is seen trading at a discount of -25% to NTA. Buy rated with a $1.40 target price.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.21
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings' trading update revealed weaker-than-expected 1H25 earnings, pulled down by bulk, which is based on materials handling data, Citi has observed on initial inspection.

Coal volumes at 3.7mt for the four months to October are in line with consensus expectations and the analyst's 1H25 forecast of 98.1mt.

The network division is similar, the broker notes, with volumes of 73.6mt in line with or slightly better than forecast.

Management reconfirmed FY25 guidance of $1,660–$1,740m, but 1H25 EBITDA is expected to be lower than the previous corresponding period and consensus, with bulk impacted by lower bauxite/alumina and grain railings.

Citi highlights a strong 2H25 result will be needed to meet expectations. Neutral rating. Target price: $3.55.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.08
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS anticipates M&A activity for BHP Group over the next few years, given that copper volumes won't increase until the 2030s and returns from Jansen will likely be muted due to low potash prices.

Due to soft demand and robust supply, potash prices have fallen for 10 consecutive quarters to around US$300/t in 3Q24 from a peak of US$875/t in 2Q22, points out the broker.

Neutral rated with a $43 target price. UBS expects the BHP share price to be driven by macroeconomic factors such as US elections and China stimulus. 

The suggestion is also made that inorganic growth (.i.e. acquisitions) are back on BHP's agenda as organic growth looks to be slow for the years ahead.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $41.63 Difference: $1.37
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.46, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Citi reviews earnings forecasts for Bank of Queensland following the major banks' reporting.

The analyst leaves estimates largely unchanged and compares the bank to its peers, noting increased transparency around costs. Bank of Queensland has guided to flat costs in FY25 due to reduced investment spending.

In contrast, larger banking peers plan to increase investment spending. Bank of Queensland has also been less impacted by the decline in mortgage flow.

The broker reiterates a Sell rating, expecting the bank will struggle to meet FY26 earnings targets and expressing concerns over sustainable earnings in the future.

Target price: $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reviews asset and wealth managers for opportunities in retirement income.

The broker's global Blue Paper on longevity estimates US$400bn in incremental revenue from retirement opportunities by 2028 for asset/wealth managers through a "retirement ecosystem mindset."

Macquarie Group ((MQG)) is viewed as best positioned. Overweight rated.

Challenger is highlighted for its life insurance-led business model but has yet to produce cross-asset products and solutions for clients, the analyst states.

Target price falls by -5.5% to $6.80. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $0.64
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Following Endeavour Group's 1Q25 trading update, Citi lowers earnings forecasts by -6% for FY25-FY27 due to weaker retail sales and softer-than-expected margins.

The target price declines by -6% to $4.89, reflecting changes in earnings estimates and the removal of a 30% valuation premium.

Neutral rating unchanged. Signs of improving momentum are not evident to the analyst, suggesting the stock may remain "cheap" for some time.

Target price is $4.89 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.39
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes increased promotions as consumers face more challenges in Endeavour Group's 1Q25 update, consistent with results from other staples companies.

The broker highlights retail "comparable" sales remain under pressure, while hotels showed a more positive result, with like-for-like sales rising 2.9%.

Management aims for 30 store renewals in FY25, with 16 expected by the end of 1H25. The broker views this as below the required through-the-cycle renewal rate of around 35-40 per year.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -16% for FY25 and -8% for FY26, with one-off costs impacting the current fiscal year.

Neutral rating retained, with hotel performance offsetting weakness in retail. Target price falls -17% to $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observed from the Endeavour Group conference call sales in retail remain very challenging, with discounting not driving sales growth. September was a "difficult" month, with consumers trading down.

Compared to the previous year, wine and spirits are performing better than beer and ready-to-drink options. Cost pressures remain, particularly in stores, but are within expectations.

Management believes retail is cyclical and time is needed to ease inflationary effects.

In hotels, gaming and accommodation showed the highest growth, with bars and food trading well. Jimmy Brings has begun a partnership with Milkrun as the exclusive alcohol provider.

Target: $6.20. Overweight. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $1.7
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Cost of living pressures continue to weigh on Endeavour Group, with a 1Q trading update revealing Retail margins weaker-than-expected by Morgans.

Promotional intensity increased during the quarter as customers became more value-conscious, explains management, and Retail sales momentum slowed in September.

Given the weaker earnings outlook and uncertainty in management with a new CEO yet to be appointed, the broker reduces its valuation multiple for the group.

The target falls to $4.54 from $5.20. Hold.

Target price is $4.54 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.04
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Endeavour Group to $4.20 from $5.10 on lower EPS estimates following a "soft" quarterly update. The Hold rating is maintained.

Management noted slowing sales momentum in September and persistent cost inflation would combine to squeeze earnings margins in the first half of FY25.

Trading down due to cost of living concerns is partly to blame, according to the broker, along with the more structural societal trend towards more active lifestyles and a focus on improved health.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Lending upside to the five-year plan for production and costs, according to Shaw and Partners, Genesis Minerals has released "impressive" drill results, particularly at the Gwalia underground.

The company currently has 15.2moz of resource inventory, which underpins the five-year group production and cost outlook, notes the broker.

Buy rating, High risk, with a $2.80 target price maintained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.47
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Goodman Group's focus on developing higher-return, higher-value turnkey projects and earnings from data centres, which are expected to underpin long-term growth.

Management noted ongoing industrial developments in key markets where demand-supply dynamics remain sustainable.

The broker believes demand for data centres will continue to grow, and the group is well-positioned to benefit from this trend with a substantial 5GW pipeline and an industrial portfolio, approximately -20% under-leased.

Buy rating with a $40 target remains unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.60 Difference: $3.4
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.60, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes HMC Capital has continued with its thematic strategy, announcing the acquisition of iseek data centres for $400m, with 6MW of capacity for -$150m in cash and -$250m in DigiCo scrip once the fund is launched.

Details of DigiCo were also revealed, including approximately $4bn in assets in the seed portfolio, including Global Switch for around $2bn, iseek, and $1.6bn of US assets under due diligence.

The broker notes DigiCo will have 76MW of installed capacity plus 161MW of targeted expansion, with around 50% greenfield.

Morgan Stanley estimates approximately -$2.7bn will be required for funding, and DigiCo is viewed as a positive for HMC Capital, with assets under management projected to grow to $10bn from $4bn, generating fees.

Equal Weight rating. Target: $9.10. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $10.80 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting downside of -24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley reviews asset and wealth managers for opportunities in retirement income.

The broker's global Blue Paper on longevity estimates US$400bn in incremental revenue from retirement opportunities by 2028 for asset/wealth managers through a "retirement ecosystem mindset."

Macquarie Group ((MQG)) is viewed as best positioned. Overweight rated.

Morgan Stanley highlights Insignia Financial has leverage to rising share markets, lifting the target price by 20% to $2.68.

The Underweight rating remains unchanged due to outflows in wealth, elevated flow risks from platform integration, and pressure on free cash flows, with dividends on hold.

Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IFM as Buy (1) -

While not ideal, a churn event and downgraded guidance for Infomedia do not materially change Bell Potter's outlook for the company.

The churn occurred in the SimplePart business, observe the analysts, and management has lowered FY25 revenue guidance to $142-149m from $144-154m.

The broker's target falls to $1.78 from $2.00 on lower EPS forecasts and reduced valuation assumptions. Buy.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.48
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 53.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners' investment thesis for Infomedia remains unchanged despite lower FY25 revenue guidance, delays in Dealer Management System (DMS) integration due to a customer cybersecurity incident, and leadership changes in North America.

Management remains confident in reaching the “Scale Phase” from FY26 onwards.

FY25 revenue guidance has slipped to $142-149m from $144-154m in August, though margins are still expected to be stable relative to FY24, note the analysts.

Target price falls to $2.10 from $2.20. Buy rating (High risk) retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.8
If IFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 53.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi acknowledges a "solid" FY24 result from Incitec Pivot, noting strong earnings in Dyno Nobel and fertiliser distribution, along with transformation benefits ahead of expectations.

The broker is more cautious about the Moranbah turnaround and gas supply issues, which are viewed as significant for FY25 earnings. Capex is also expected to remain high, with management guiding up to -$430m.

Citi anticipates an exit from fertilisers within the next 6-12 months, including "divestment in parts."

Distribution and Gibson Island real estate are expected to start in early 2025, with the Phosphate Hill review by September 2025 and Geelong manufacturing by December 2025. The broker notes the fertiliser book's value at $400m.

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -12.7% for FY25 and -2.1% for FY26. Target price increases to $3.20 from $3.10. Neutral rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.09
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Incitec Pivot reported FY24 results, which exceeded expectations by 10% due to strong fertiliser performance relative to estimates.

Dyno Nobel Asia/Pacific performed better than expected, while North America was softer than anticipated. Asia/Pacific generated 36% earnings growth, well above consensus, and the outlook remains robust in Australia.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecast by -1% for FY25 and raises FY26 by 4%, reflecting expected stronger earnings from Dyno Nobel Asia/Pacific, including transformation benefits.

The broker highlights management has relaunched the separation of fertilisers, with the sale process for distribution assets set to begin in 1Q2025 and a strategic review of Phosphate Hill expected by the end of September 2025.

The stock is rated Neutral with a target price of $3.05, up from $3.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Incitec Pivot reported a "solid" FY24 result, with EBIT coming in 6% above Morgan Stanley's forecast and 12% above consensus.

Underlying net profit was also above the broker's and consensus expectations, including $22m in below-the-line transformation costs.

Operating cash flow was below estimates due to a decline in working capital of $332m. The transformation business program added $65m in EBIT, with $31m in below-the-line costs.

Management remains committed to the separation of fertilisers, the broker notes, with a sale process for the distribution business starting in early 2025.

No guidance was provided for transformation benefits, and re-contracting is expected to assist Dyno Nobel, including improved margins from technology.

Industry view: In-Line. Target price: $2.90. The broker believes the market is looking for full separation of fertilisers and ongoing transformation benefits.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

Incitec Pivot's FY24 result was materially stronger than expected, with both divisions coming in ahead of Morgans' forecasts. Highlights for the analysts included record results from Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific and the Fertiliser Distribution segment.

The broker explains the Fertilisers beat partly reflected a stronger DAP price and slightly higher-than-expected production, while Explosives benefited from $64m of Transformation Program benefits compared to guidance of around $50m.

The target rises to $3.15 from $2.91. Hold. The potential sale of Fertilisers continues to overhang the stock, in Morgans' view.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.04
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Accumulate (2) -

Incitec Pivot's FY24 results and final dividend came in well ahead of consensus expectations, highlights Ord Minnett.

The broker explains a strong earnings and margin performance at the Dyno Nobel Australia-Pacific operations outweighed weaker earnings from the Dyno Nobel America and Fertilisers Asia Pacific divisions.

Additionally, exceeding management's prior target of $50m, $64m of benefit was derived from the company's Transformation Program, observes the analyst.

The target rises to $3.45 from $3.35. Accumulate.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.34
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Following a meeting with Roborock, the second-largest company in the robot vacuum category in Australia, at Citi's China conference, the broker highlights two key points for JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman ((HVN)).

Roborock’s focus on growing its brand, market share, and increasing price points to attract customers is viewed positively for the retailers, as the company is expected to partner with both JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman.

On the negative side, Roborock intends to expand its direct-to-consumer channel.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with an $85 target price on JB Hi-Fi.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $85.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $76.30, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

Jumbo Interactive stock tends to trade on jackpotting draws, and Morgans suggests now is an ideal time to initiate or add to a position.

Following AGM commentary and a "softer" trading update, the broker lowers its target price by -$1.00 to $15.80. The Add rating is unchanged.

The analyst notes a subdued first three months of FY25 was followed by greater weakness in October, with only two large jackpots compared to 17 in the same period last year.

Management reaffirmed targets and stated it is working to keep EBITDA margins in line with its August guidance.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $12.74 Difference: $3.06
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.57, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

In line with Ord Minnett's forecast, Lindsay Australia has reported revenue growth of 3.5% in the Transport and Rural segments.

The broker explains management's focus has been on increasing revenues in commercial freight (chilled and frozen everyday food items) to provide a year-round revenue and earnings profile and utilise higher-margin rail assets.

Separately, the analyst highlights the relative attractiveness of small-cap transport assets at the current point of the cycle, as evidenced by DP World's bid for Silk Logistics ((SLH)).

The target eases to $1.29 from $1.30. Buy.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.42
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

In positive news for Lindsay Australia, notes Shaw and Partners, a recovery in food volumes is starting to play out in Australia. The company's operations include a focus on processing, food services, fresh produce, agriculture, and horticulture industries.

At the AGM, management noted grocery and commercial volumes are up 5% compared to the previous corresponding period in the first four months of FY25, observes the broker.

Buy (High risk). Unchanged target price of $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.33
If LAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Following Stockland’s ((SGP)) announcement of the successful acquisition of Lendlease Group’s Communities business, Citi revisits the group’s asset divestment progress.

Lendlease Group has confirmed sales of $1.9bn out of a total target of $4.5bn, flagged at the May strategy day, with approximately $2.8bn targeted for the first 12 months.

Around $1bn in debt will be repaid from current proceeds, the broker states, and the balance is likely to be used for project developments.

Citi believes the proposed $500m share buyback is dependent on further asset sales.

Buy rating retained, though upside potential may be limited to additional asset divestment announcements. Target price $8.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.73 Difference: $1.27
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi highlights Arcadium Lithium reported weak 3Q2024 production due to softer demand and a slower ramp in Olaroz Stage 2.

Management has withdrawn guidance for the ramp-up, which was initially expected to be completed by mid-2024, as announced in 2023, the broker states.

The company's conference call revealed better-than-expected realised pricing of US$16,000/t for chemicals, down -US$1,000/t from the previous quarter. Lithium hydroxide prices remained flat due to the company's contracts.

The Rio Tinto ((RIO)) acquisition is expected to close mid-2025, subject to approvals. Citi notes Arcadium Lithium's largest shareholder, with around 15%, does not hold a board seat.

Neutral rating. Target price $8.60.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: $0.52
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Management at Liontown Resources has provided initial FY25 production and cost guidance as part of a revised mine plan for Kathleen Valley. Bell Potter expects a lower long-term throughput rate to reduce Kathleen Valley’s production profile by approximately -5%.

FY25 production guidance is for 260-295kt of spodumene concentrate, and the analysts estimate revenues could be in the range of $365-410m.

Management is also targeting up to $100m in cost savings and capex deferrals, with most expected to be realised in FY25.

Speculative Buy rating. The target falls to $1.40 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.56
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Following a trading update, Citi downgrades Liontown Resources.

Management outlined a higher margin of 2.8mt p.a. for FY28-FY30, projecting 530kt of spodumene concentrate but a lower lithium carbonate output of around -8kt to -19kt.

Costs are expected to trend higher in 2H2025 and decrease into FY27-FY30, with capex flagged as exceeding expectations, raising balance sheet concerns for the analyst.

Citi flags another $100m in financing from the LG Solutions convertible terms is available to be drawn down.

Based on the projected 2.8mt p.a., the target price falls to 75c from 85c. Due to the stock's recent outperformance, the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie reviews 2H25 guidance from Liontown Resources, with spodumene concentrate production expected at 170-180kt and all-in sustaining costs of $1,170-$1,290.

The broker notes that both forecast sustaining and growth costs are higher than expected due to increased underground mining and infrastructure costs as Kathleen Valley is expected to transition from open-pit to underground mining

Management has updated the mine plan for 2.8mt p.a. production by the end of FY27, down from 3mt p.a., which improves processing grades. 

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -11% for FY25 and -12% for FY26 based on the guidance update.

Target price drops by -12% to 60c. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCE as Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

A lack of major Subsea contract awards prompts Bell Potter to lower its target for Matrix Composites & Engineering to 33c from 44c and downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy.

The broker highlights a year-long drought of these contracts and is becoming cautious around near-term project delivery, facility utilisation, and earnings growth.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.03
If MCE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter assesses a positive update by Acadia Pharmaceuticals (the commercial partner for Neuren Pharmaceuticals' Daybue product), with management expressing confidence in further Daybue sales and volume growth in 2025.

The broker forecasts the company will have more than $350m in cash as of 1Q 2025 after receiving two cash milestone payments early next year of around $76m each.

The $25 target is unchanged. Buy rating remains.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $16.33 Difference: $8.67
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUZ as Speculative Buy (1) -

While a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency for Orphan Medicinal Product Designation (OMPD) for NUZ-001 is a positive for Neurizon Therapeutics, Morgans notes the main catalyst lays elsewhere.

The more immediate focus remains on commencement of the Phase 2/3 clinical study as part of the HEALEY ALS Platform Trial, explains the broker, with patient enrollment expected to begin in early-2025.

The Speculative Buy rating and 42c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.22
If NUZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Hold (3) -

Pexa Group's 1Q trading update was in line with management's expectations, and FY25 guidance was re-affirmed, but Morgans notes a potentially slower build-out than previously expected for the international business.

The broker ultimately anticipates reasonable success in the UK, though timeline risks remain as UK remortgage volumes are subdued.

The target price falls to $14.51 from $14.71 on the broker's reduced medium-term growth assumptions in ‘International’. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $14.51 Current Price is $13.51 Difference: $1
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QRI as Buy (1) -

Citi lifts EPS for Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund by 1.5% in FY25 and 5.1% in FY26.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.60 are retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If QRI meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland announced regulatory approval from FIRB for the acquisition of Lendlease Group's ((LLC)) communities business for -$1.9bn, with settlement expected at the end of 2024, Morgan Stanley notes.

As anticipated, management raised FY25 guidance by around 3%, with settlement guidance increased to 6,200-6,700 lots from 5,300-5,700 lots.

Morgan Stanley observes the upgrade aligns with consensus expectations. The removal of uncertainty is considered a positive for the stock.

Overweight rating. In-Line Industry view. Target price: $6.35.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $1.2
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

To allow for the recent acquisition of 12 master-planned communities from Lendlease Group, explains Ord Minnett, management at Stockland has raised guidance for FY25 funds from operations (FFO) to 33-34cpu from 32-33cpu.

Guidance for full-year settlements has been upgraded to 6,200-6,700 as management forecasts FY25 settlements from master-planned communities will rise by approximately 950 lots.

The broker now forecasts settlements for FY25-FY27 of 6,600, 7,950, and 8,400 lots, respectively, and upgrades its rating for Stockland to Accumulate from Hold. The target is increased to $5.30 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.15
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLH as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans increases its target for Silk Logistics to $2.14 from $2.00 to align with the offer price in the Scheme Implementation Agreement with DP World (Australia) Limited and considers it a credible offer.

The board unanimously recommends shareholders in Silk Logistics vote in favour of the proposed scheme.

Major shareholders controlling around 46% of shares on issue have already confirmed their intention to vote in favour of the scheme, notes the broker.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.07
If SLH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SLH as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The Silk Logistics share price is now trading broadly in line with Shaw and Partners' unchanged $2.10 target price after management entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with DP World Australia.

DP World Australia intends to acquire 100% of the issued capital of Silk Logistics for a cash price of $2.14 per share.

In the absence of a superior offer, the board recommends Silk Logistics shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Hold, High Risk from Buy, High Risk.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.03
If SLH meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Following Citi's visit to China and several retail stores in Shenzhen, the analyst came away with a generally positive impression of the shelf space and in-store merchandising Penfolds has achieved.

The broker’s feedback from staff was positive, with the best sellers for Penfolds being its higher-priced brands, particularly the 388 and 407 labels.

Citi suggests anecdotal evidence from store visits indicates Treasury Wine Estates’ wines are selling well, with the removal of tariffs expected to provide more transparency around sales in 2H25.

Chinese wines, such as Great Wall and Changyu, appear increasingly popular with reasonable shelf space, the analyst observed.

Treasury Wine Estates is Buy rated with a $12.97 target price.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $1.96
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the upcoming 1H25 results for Xero on Nov 14 will be "very interesting," with expectations average revenue per user will exceed the announced price increases and product cadence is accelerating.

Subscriptions and churn will be closely watched metrics. The analyst cautions high expectations are already priced into the stock.

Fundamentally, the broker remains "bullish" and highlights Xero has relatively underperformed SaaS peers in 2024. The broker estimates a potential 3%-5% movement in the stock price on the day, suggesting volatility is pretty much guaranteed.

Overweight. Industry view: Attractive. Target price: $170.

Target price is $170.00 Current Price is $159.62 Difference: $10.38
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $165.28, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources