Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

29Metals reported 1Q 2025 copper and gold production, which came in below consensus by -26% and -9%, respectively, Macquarie notes, with silver in line and zinc some 6% above the market consensus.

Operating costs of $94.2m were below the broker's forecast by -23% due to run-of-mine stock build, which was a credit to the costs, the analyst explains.

Capricorn water inventory declined by -0.3GL, which positively reduced the surface water level inventory below the maximum operating water level threshold, Macquarie states.

The analyst lowers the 2025 EPS estimate by -6%. Target price of 30c and Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.165
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 85.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Copper production at 29Metals' Golden Grove in 1Q25 fell short of Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts, but costs were also lower on positive stockpile movements, with site costs flat.

The company's FY25 guidance is close to the broker's forecasts on production, costs and capex.

Forecasts largely unchanged. Equal-weight. Target unchanged at 13c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 85.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

AIC Mines delivered a 3Q result broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, with copper production of 3kt and slightly higher costs due to rainfall-related disruption to concentrate sales.

Development of the Jericho link drive advanced 1km of the planned 3km during the quarter, and first ore remains on track for June quarter 2026, highlight the analysts.

The analyst notes the project remains on schedule to deliver production growth to over 20kt copper by FY28, a 60% increase. Capex assumptions were increased modestly.

The broker's FY25 forecast earnings improve by circa 22% on lower D&A, while NAV/cash flow estimates reduce slightly on the higher capex.

Ord Minnett reduces the target price to 62c from 64c and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.27
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 126.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners upgraded copper production for AIC Mines following 3Q25 update, which showed total production so far leaves just 2,839t copper to be achieved in 4Q to meet FY25 target of 12.5t.

The broker lifted copper production forecast to 12.6kt from 12.3kt and left numbers for gold unchanged. Costs were higher in the quarter due to lower production, but the FY25 target of $5.25/lb copper was maintained.

Buy. Target rises to $1.10 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.75
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 214% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 126.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources reported mixed March quarter results, according to Bell Potter, with copper equivalent production of 10.7kt broadly in line with guidance, though all operations underperformed the analysts' production and cost forecasts.

Tritton produced 4.3kt copper at costs (AISC) of $6.16/lb versus the broker’s 5.3kt forecast at $5.08/lb, while Cracow delivered 9.0koz gold at $3,473/oz and Mt Colin produced 2.6kt copper at $1.64/lb; all missed guidance on both volumes and costs.

Bell Potter expects a stronger June quarter with a record 8kt copper target at Tritton and further updates from the Constellation project, which could underpin a long-term production base of 25-30ktpa over an eight-year mine life.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to 35c from 33c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.165
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Amcor’s merger with Berry Global is expected to deliver cost synergies of US$650m over three years, with 40% forecast to be realised in FY26.

Morgan Stanley estimates FY26 EPS at US$0.85, rising to US$0.96 in FY27 and US$1.03 in FY28, reflecting earnings accretion of 7% in FY26, 14% in FY27, and 16% in FY28 from the merger.

Dividends are forecast at US$0.51, US$0.55, and US$0.59 per share over the same period.

The analyst upgrades the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target price lifts to $20.31 from $16. 

Morgan Stanley believes the market is overlooking the transaction with Berry is not yet included in consensus estimates with the transaction completed on April 30.

Industry view:In-Line.

Target price is $20.31 Current Price is $15.16 Difference: $5.15
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

AMP reported continued improvement in wealth flows in the March quarter, offsetting softer market returns that weighed on assets under management, Morgan Stanley notes.

Further cost reduction potential in the Superannuation and Investment division is expected to support re-rating.

The analyst highlights AMP’s differentiation through MyNorth Lifetime, a combined accumulation and retirement income product, positioning AMP closest among peers to delivering on a retirement ecosystem strategy.

Earnings for FY25 are cut by –6% on revised equity market assumptions, lower bank volumes, and a higher-cost deposit funding mix.

Target price lowered to $1.62 from $1.76. Overweight rating maintained.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.335
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery delivered a second consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow in Q4, with NZ$1.1m in the March quarter, highlights Bell Potter.

FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance was maintained.

Revenue growth was led by the Myriad product range, observe the analysts, with March month sales reaching a record US$2.0m and quarterly growth of 11% quarter-on-quarter. 

The broker highlights US tariffs are expected to reduce revenue by circa -2% and FY26 earnings by -NZ$1.7m. Though this is not material as a share of revenue, it is meaningful for earnings.

Bell Potter reduces the target price to 85c from 90c and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.41
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates B4P as Buy (1) -

Beforepay Group's 3Q25 advances growth was higher than expected, resulting in an increase in net transaction margin to $5.9m, up 41% y/y. Shaw and Partners notes the improvement was mainly due to investment in marketing.

The broker revised forecasts on the back of the result, pushing up the FY25 net transaction margin forecast by 5.5%. EBITDA forecast is, however, -4.3% lower due to higher opex for growth initiatives.

Minor changes to EPS forecasts. Buy. Target unchanged at $2.15.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.9
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes banks have outperformed the broader market year-to-date, rising 2.3% compared to a -1.0% decline in the ASX200 index.

The broker attributes this outperformance to resilient earnings, stable returns on equity, and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop that appears to limit the risk of credit losses, rising unemployment, and adverse interest rate impacts.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is currently Neutral-rated with an $11.00 target.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold pre-released key metrics prior to the 3Q25 report. The company sold 25.8koz of gold in the period, with production of 25.1koz and all-in-sustaining-costs of $3,132/oz, notes Macquarie.

The average realised price of $3,259/oz, including hedged sales, was below the broker's estimate and resulted in a miss to revenue of -$7m.

Management recently downgraded guidance for FY25, and Macquarie now assumes 130koz at $2,478/oz, with year-to-date production at 66% of the latest guidance point.

Macquarie lowers its FY25 EPS forecast by -14% on softer realised pricing. Outperform. Target price $1.20 unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.29
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 45.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy pre-reported most March quarter metrics, with production of 296klbs slightly below Bell Potter's expectation and cost (C1) performance the standout, coming in at $33/lb versus the broker’s $40/lb estimate.

Sales totaled 150klbs, with an additional 118klbs returned from a loan agreement, sold at an average price of US$84/lb. Recoveries through IX columns remained strong at 95.5%, notes the broker, while tenor declined marginally.

Operating cash flow was $3.9m, with net cash declining by -$1.4m to $63.7m due to investing outflows, explains the broker, while inventory and liquid investments stood at $165m. 

Bell Potter expects a strong June quarter and sees upside from a pending resource update for Jasons and Goulds, stable uranium pricing, and superior cost performance.

Unchanged Buy rating and a $4.65 target price.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $1.45
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Boss Energy delivered first quarter of free cash flow in 3Q25, ending with a solid balance sheet comprising $229m in cash, liquid assets and U308.

Costs during the quarter came in at $33/lb, below the $37-41/lb 2H guidance.

The broker remains a uranium bull, noting replacement-rate contracting has yet to begin.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.1
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Boss Energy reported drummed production at Honeymoon of 295.8klbs of U3O8, which was above Macquarie's forecast by 7.6% and in excess of management's FY25 guidance of 850klbs. The analyst is forecasting 4Q25 at 912klbs.

The company achieved an annualised run rate of 1.5mlbs in February, and Wellfield 3 was online to IX column 3 in March.

Sales of US$22.4m were received in cash on 150klbs sold, with realised prices of US$70/lb.

Macquarie highlights Alta Mesa is tracking well, with drummed U3O8 above the forecast of 75klbs, following the start of the second IX circuit, which doubles flow capacity.

The analyst lifts EPS estimates by 4% and 2% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, on marginally lower costs. No change to target price at $4.60 and Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $1.4
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the recent rally in Boss Energy and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) is likely a result of short-covering after these two were the most shorted stocks on the ASX on April 22.

While the selling of Paladin shares was justifiable due to a downgrade in guidance, the broker was puzzled by the same treatment for Boss. Because all uranium stocks were affected, the broker concluded it was due to a view on uranium.

The analyst believes the short-covering has further to go, given the recent rise in spot uranium prices and because there may be more positions to cover.

Separately, Boss Energy, reported a solid March quarter, assesses Ord Minnett, with Honeymoon achieving maiden positive free cash flow of $14m, supported by strong realised uranium prices of US$84/lb and lower-than-expected costs at US$21/lb.

While the broker believes strong pricing will persist in the short-term, the company indicated higher capex and opex as it finalises construction of the remaining three NIMCIX columns.

Free cash flow for June is forecast to be -$13m but should turn strongly positive from FY26 with full ramp-up to 2.5mlb, explains Ord Minnett.

FY25 production is on track to meet guidance of 850klb, suggests the broker.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $4.50 target price for Boss Energy, which remains the broker's preferred pick in the uranium space.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $1.3
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Boss Energy's 3Q25 update confirmed it is on course to achieve FY25 production guidance of 850klb.

The highlight of the quarter was lower-than-guidance cost at $33/lb. While costs are expected to increase in 4Q, the company flagged it will be at the bottom end of the $37-41/lb guidance range.

The broker notes the Honeymoon processing plant performance has been excellent, but the risk is in well field development.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.26.

Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.06
If BOE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy reported March quarter production of 295,000 pounds of U3O8 at its Honeymoon project, above UBS’s 250,000lb estimate, with in-situ recovery volumes up 15% on the previous quarter.

UBS maintains its forecast for 330,000lbs for 4Q25, aligning with full-year guidance of 850,000lbs. The company achieved C1 costs of $33/lb, well below expectations, though costs are guided to rise to $37–$41/lb in the second half.

Sales were 150,000 pounds for the quarter at a realised price of US$70/lb.

Capital expenditure was modest at -$12m, with ramp-up at Honeymoon progressing, the broker notes. Alta Mesa contributed 29,100lbs net to Boss.

UBS updates EPS estimates for FY25/FY26 by 12% and 8%, respectively. Nameplate capacity of 2.45mlbs p.a. is to be reached by end of FY26.

Target price is raised to $3.30 from $3.10. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.1
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Beach Energy reported March quarter production of 4.9mmboe, broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectation, while sales volumes of 6.4mmboe and revenue of $552m exceeded the broker's forecasts due to two additional LNG swap cargos contributing $152m.

Production was slightly weaker quarter-on-quarter due to weather-related impacts in the Cooper Basin, though the analysts note realised prices were 4% higher, and net debt improved to $312m following strong operating cash flow of $243m.

FY25 production guidance of 18.5-20.5mmboe is maintained, with management expecting to deliver near the midpoint despite recent flooding. Capex is now tracking towards the lower end of the -$700-800m range, highlights Bell Potter.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and a $1.35 target price.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.13
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Citi's early commentary following the release of Beach Energy's quarterly update suggests 3QFY25 sales and revenue beat expectations, driven by an additional pre-first gas swapped cargo at Waitsia and stronger realised pricing.

Alas, the quarterly 'beat' was overshadowed by weather-related disruptions and clarification that consensus may be underestimating capex and restoration costs for FY26 and possibly FY27, the analysts highlight.

While gearing is expected to stay below the 15% target, risks around offshore rig execution in Otway/Bass, Waitsia commissioning, and now flooding-related production losses at Cooper have triggered downgrades to dividend expectations for 2HFY25 and FY26.

Sell rating and $1.15 target price. The broker argues said challenges remain under-appreciated by the market.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Beach Energy's March quarter revenue exceeded expectations due to a second timeswap of Waitsia liquefied natural gas, though production of 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent was in line.

The underlying result was flat, with the revenue beat driven by financial timing rather than operations. Cooper Basin flooding delayed -0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent and added $7m in one-off remediation costs.

The upcoming Equinox campaign in Victoria includes capital and restoration costs now expected to exceed $900m, well above prior forecasts.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates for FY25/FY26  by –5% and –11%, respectively, and reduces the target price to $1.25 from $1.40. Free cash flow is expected to turn negative in FY26, increasing the likelihood of M&A opportunities.

Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.03
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy reported revenue in line with UBS but 13% ahead of consensus, driven by LNG swap cargo sales at US$18.9/mmbtu.

Management's production guidance was trimmed due to Cooper Basin flooding, with remediation costs of -$7m.

Capex forecasts for Otway growth and restoration rose sharply, the analyst highlights, materially reducing expected FY26 free cash flow, and FY26 dividend risk is introduced, though UBS believes Beach’s strong balance sheet allows flexibility to maintain payout.

Waitsia commissioning was delayed to 1Q26. UBS lifts FY25 EPS by 8% but cuts FY26–27 EPS by –12% to –17%, respectively, on lower Cooper and Otway production.

Target price lowered to $1.40 from $1.55. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.18
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Challenger’s March quarter annuity net book growth was -1 percentage point below forecast, and total Life book growth was negative, though longer-dated sales improved and should support return on equity, Morgan Stanley observes.

The broker lifts FY25 earnings forecast to $450m, in line with revised company guidance of $450–465m, supported by stronger Life investment yields, partially offset by weaker Life book growth and lower funds under management.

The analyst views Challenger’s strategy to expand in private credit via managed funds as positive, and sees potential uplift from APRA’s upcoming capital review.

Capital forecast is by raised by Morgan Stanley modestly, with 1H26 prescribed capital amount ratio now expected at 1.59x. Margin and return on equity are expected to peak in FY25.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target price lifts to $6.45 from $5.95. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $7.19 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.42, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Buy rating and $21.00 target retained as Citi analysts shared their initial assessment of Coles Group's quarterly update.

Coles Supermarket 3Q25 LFL sales came in at 3%, in line with consensus but slightly below the broker's 3.5% estimate. However, the analysts add Easter adjusted LFL of 3.2% was closer to expectation.

Total Supermarkets sales growth of 3.7% was slightly ahead of the February trading update (3.4%). Online growth accelerated to 25.7% from 22.6% in 1H25, underpinned by the ramp up of the Ocado CFCs.

Easter Adjusted Liquor LFL sales were flat versus Citi's forecast of a decline by -2% while consensus is positioned for 1.7% growth.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $21.38 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.61, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Catalyst Metals reported March quarter gold production of 24.3koz, below Bell Potter's forecast for 30koz, impacted by wet weather, labour absenteeism, and remote loading issues, particularly at Plutonic.

Costs (AISC) were elevated at $2,765/oz due to lower production across a largely fixed cost base, explains the broker, while the average realised gold price was $4,652/oz.

Year-to-date production stands at 81koz, and the company is on track to meet the lower end of FY25 guidance of 105-120koz at AISC of between $2,300-2,500/oz.

Development activities progressed across satellite mines, with first ore mined from Plutonic East and drilling at Trident extending mineralisation, supporting a longer mine life and higher production assumptions by the broker.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy after a share price rally. The target price rises to $6.30 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: $0.04
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Add (1) -

Catalyst Metals announced a stable 3Q25 result from the Plutonic Gold Mine, despite minor disruptions from Cyclone Sean, according to Morgans.

Gold sales of 24koz were above consensus and internal forecasts, though revenue of $115m and EBITDA of $51m fell short due to slightly weaker realised pricing and higher all-in-sustaining-costs of $2,765/oz.

The broker notes production started at Plutonic East, supporting its growth plan, while divesting the high-cost Henty asset allowed focus on Plutonic and Victorian exploration potential.

Management's FY25 guidance of 105–120koz at all-in-sustaining-costs of $2,300–2,500/oz was reiterated.

Morgans raises its target price to $7.15 from $5.69 and maintains an Add rating.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: $0.89
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

US-listed Domino's Pizza Inc's 1Q25 result overnight didn't give any cause for optimism for Citi on Domino's Pizza Enterprises.

The broker notes the stronger international trend was likely driven by India and Canada, and in Japan it was due to the closure of underperforming stores.

Perhaps more important was the company's cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to geopolitical uncertainty.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $31.82.

Target price is $31.82 Current Price is $25.80 Difference: $6.02
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.29, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems reported a March quarter operating cash outflow of -$26.8m, broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecast due to a second-half revenue and cash flow weighting.

The financial position was significantly improved by the divestment of EM Solutions, highlights the broker, which generated an investing cash inflow of $140.1m.

Contracted revenue now totals $140m, with around $115m scheduled for delivery in 2025. The broker highlights potential near-term sales including RWS systems to North America (up to $30m) and two laser weapon opportunities worth $50-100m each.

The broker expects the company’s full-year performance to be second-half weighted and sees a multi-year funding runway supporting further order book growth through 2025-2026.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and a $2.15 target price.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.915
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp delivered its first 12-month period of positive free cash flow, totalling EUR6m, supported by a 40% year-on-year rise in cash receipts and a -4% decline in cash payments, Macquarie observes.

Cash increased by EUR15.5m in the March quarter to EUR35.4m, driven by seasonal collections and underlying business growth.

The broker highlights live operations with Guardian and New York Life and a strong North American pipeline, including six small wins and two cloud migrations. Management reiterated full-year free cash flow expectations and a transition to self-funding.

No changes to earnings forecasts. Target price remains $2.45. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.31
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue delivered a strong 3Q operational performance, according to UBS, with total shipments of 46.1mt, in line with guidance despite adverse weather.

Hematite shipments totaled 44.6mt, while Iron Bridge shipped 1.5mt. Unit costs for hematite declined -4% quarter-on-quarter to US$17.53/wmt, remaining among the lowest in the industry, highlight the analysts.

Realised prices were soft, with hematite sales achieving 84% of the 62% benchmark, though the broker notes share of lower-grade Super Special fines moderated.

Management completed the -$254m Red Hawk acquisition during the quarter and reported net debt of US$2.1bn, better than consensus.

Full-year FY25 shipment guidance of 190-200mt was reiterated.

UBS remains Neutral with a $15.30 price target, flagging downside risk to earnings due to commodity pricing and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.29, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

Generation Development reported a strong quarter in investment bonds, with sales of $238m up 54% year-on-year and net inflows up 62%, Morgans notes.

Investment bond assets under management rose 3% despite market headwinds, and Lonsec funds under management increased by $685m to $13.3bn, slightly below expectations.

Evidentia funds under management reached $13.5bn, well below the $18.5bn full-year target, with several mandates delayed into the fourth quarter.

Morgans lowers earnings forecasts for FY25/FY26 by –1% to –5% on reduced expectations for Evidentia and Lonsec.

While growth in funds under management at Evidentia was below forecast, Morgans remains positive on Generation Development’s fundamentals, citing strong execution, its dominant position in the fast-growing separately managed accounts space, and the step-up in investment bond sales.

Target price reduced to $5.25 from $5.59. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $1.07
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Outperform (1) -

G8 Education’s 1H25 occupancy declined –3.0% year-on-year to April 20, softening from –1.9% in mid-February, Macquarie notes, with cost-of-living pressures, a later Easter, and peer promotions as key drivers.

Management sees early signs of recovery, with improving enquiries and expected enrolment gains from May, while tight cost control is expected to support earnings growth.

Macquarie remains cautiously optimistic on 2025 earnings, supported by easing inflation, interest rate cuts, and CCS increases. 2026 could benefit from the activity test removal from 1 January, with more than 100k families eligible for additional care, offering upside not yet priced into consensus.

The broker lowers FY25 EPS forecast –5%, and the target price is cut to $1.53 from $1.60. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.26
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects wealth managers to be supported by improving flows, longer-term outlook, lighter regulation and undemanding trading multiples, and picks AMP ((AMP)) as the preferred stock in that space. 

For Insignia Financial, the broker sees potential for a turnaround to net inflows but expects it to be a multi-year story. The broker marked-to-market forecasts for equity market movements, resulting in a -3% earnings cut for FY25 and -10% for FY26.

In the near-term the broker expects the bid for the company to be lowered from $5.

Equal-weight. Target price $4.21.

Target price is $4.21 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0.4
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a 3Q25 trading update from Judo Capital, where it sees a less positive outlook being flagged due to the impact of the uncertain outlook on SME businesses.

The broker will also look for margin outlook for new lending deposits, trends in credit quality and lending. 

FY25 guidance will be maintained, but the broker sees some downside risk to its 3Q revenue forecast, given loan growth is tracking below its expectations.

A modest increase in NPL ratio is expected, along with a lift in bad debt charge to 52bps from 49bps in 1H. Overweight. Target unchanged at $2.30.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.545
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has updated its model for Lynas Rare Earths following 3Q25 result, which it noted was weaker than expected.

The broker sees the end-demand market staying weak in the near term and the company's ramp-up at Kalgoorlie continuing to face headwinds.

The broker cut FY25 revenue forecast by -9.5%, resulting in a sharp downgrade to the EBIT and EPS forecast. 

Target price rises to $7.10 from $7.00 on valuation changes.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.25, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Mineral Resources' March quarter production was broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations, with Onslow Iron shipments of 3.6mt (the broker forecast 3.8mt), but a significant beat on unit costs at $58/t FOB versus the broker's $77/t.

Realised iron ore pricing at US$89/t was also stronger-than-expected by Bell Potter. Lithium production and pricing met the broker's forecasts, while unit costs were lower-than-expected.

Mining Services volumes declined to 62mt due to reduced internal demand, though FY25 guidance of 280mt remains in place, note the analysts.

Regarding liquidity, management confirmed compliance with all FY25 financial covenants and ruled out any equity raise.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and lifts the target price to $29.50 from $29.00.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $20.57 Difference: $8.93
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the 13% rise in Mineral Resources shares following the 3Q25 result was likely a relief rally after the company ruled out a capital raise. Also, there was more disclosures on costs, cash movements etc. 

The broker believes the cost guidance for Onslow may be conservative. Not much information was provided on the departure of three directors in the governance committee.

Neutral, High risk with a target price of $20. The broker has assumed the company will refinance US$500m of the 2027 bonds.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.57 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Mineral Resources’ quarterly update is seen as broadly positive, with iron ore and lithium volumes ahead of Macquarie's forecasts but pricing below expectations.

Iron ore shipments of 5.91 million tonnes were in line with the broker, and lithium spodumene shipments of 128,000 tonnes exceeded estimates by 27%, driven by strong performance at Mount Marion.

However, average realised lithium pricing missed forecasts by -6% due to product mix.

The mining services division was weaker, with volumes tracking to the low end of guidance and earnings under pressure from higher haulage costs.

The analyst notes net debt of $5.4 billion was in line, and the company reaffirmed it does not intend to raise equity. Capital expenditure and liquidity were within expected ranges.

Macquarie upgrades financial year 2025 earnings per share by 3%, with minimal changes to future years. Target price remains $35.00. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $20.57 Difference: $14.43
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

The broker states the highlight of Mineral Resources' 3Q25 update was the company stating an equity raise is not under consideration, given the strong liquidity position.

The company complied with all financial covenants as of December 31 and expects to be compliant as at June 30 on its revolving credit facility.

Morgan Stanley notes guidance for the Onslow volume was lowered, resulting in a downgrade to the group iron ore FY25 shipment forecast. The broker's forecast is marginally higher.  

Overweight. Target unchanged at $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $20.57 Difference: $14.43
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Mineral Resources reported iron ore and lithium production in line with expectations, but cost outcomes were significantly better, Morgans stresses.

The company achieved its lowest quarterly mining services unit cost since 2018, and unit costs across both lithium and iron ore improved sharply.

Lithium sales of 139kt from Mount Marion and Wodgina were ahead of forecasts, though realised prices were slightly below expectations. Iron ore shipments totalled 5.9 million tonnes at a 62% iron ore equivalent basis.

Morgans notes the Onslow Haul Road upgrade is progressing well and remains on track for completion in the first quarter of financial year 2026, which should support nameplate capacity of 35 million tonnes per annum.

Confidence in execution has improved materially, the analyst believes, and cost improvements lead to a 14% and 6% upgrade to earnings forecasts for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price raised to $23.00 from $18.00. Add rating upgraded.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.57 Difference: $2.43
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS views Mineral Resources’ March quarter update as encouraging and retains a Buy rating with a revised $26.10 target, up from $25.70. Management affirmed debt covenant compliance and ruled out any equity raise.

Onslow Iron progress was a key focus by management, with a more detailed ramp-up schedule presented, aiming for nameplate 35Mtpa in 1QFY26, highlight the analysts.

Shipments of 3.6mt for the quarter were close to UBS estimates, and costs at $58/t FOB materially beat the forecast $77/t. Iron ore realisations were strong, notes the broker, at 86% of benchmark.

In lithium, Wodgina and Mt Marion both delivered above UBS expectations on volume and cost. FY25 cost guidance was maintained.

Mining Services volumes were down -9% quarter-on-quarter due to the Yilgarn and Bald Hill closures, but FY25 volume guidance (280–300Mt) and EBITDA/t guidance were reiterated.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $20.57 Difference: $5.53
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVP as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Medical Developments International to 80c from 71c, driven by a lower discount rate and adjusted valuation weighting, and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Hold

Management delivered a surprise positive operating cash flow of approximately $1.7m in the March quarter, observe the analysts. This represents a $5.6m improvement year-on-year, and turns year-to-date cash flow to a positive $0.9m, up $11m from the prior year.

Cash flows benefited from favourable debtor payment timing, but Bell Potter cautions the June quarter may show negative cash flow as working capital shifts and inventory is built for the US respiratory season.

A new distribution agreement has been signed with Ethypharm to accelerate Penthrox sales in France, leveraging Ethypharm’s established position in pain and addiction therapies across Europe, explains Bell Potter.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.19
If MVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes banks have outperformed the broader market year-to-date, rising 2.3% compared to a -1.0% decline in the ASX200 index.

The broker attributes this outperformance to resilient earnings, stable returns on equity, and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop that appears to limit the risk of credit losses, rising unemployment, and adverse interest rate impacts.

National Australia Bank is currently Neutral-rated with a $37.50 target.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $35.95 Difference: $1.55
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.31, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights nib Holdings faces potential risk to its Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme contract, which accounts for around 17% of the temporary residents, workers, and students division revenue and  circa 4–5% of group underlying operating profit.

A Request for Information (RFI) issued by Department of Employment Workplace Relations suggests tougher contract retention conditions, likely pressuring margins even if the insurer retains part of the program.

Macquarie sees no changes to EPS forecasts but warns margin compression is inevitable, given PALM profitability exceeds that of average Workers policies. PALM contract risk adds to broader operational challenges across the group.

Target price is maintained at $5.55. Underperform rating retained

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.92 Difference: minus $1.37 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Industries reported 1Q 2025 earnings (EBITDA) of US$90m, at the top end of its guided range, with strong contributions from RKEF and HPAL operations, Macquarie notes.

Payment deferrals totalling US$253m for the ENC acquisition support balance sheet preservation in second half. ENC commissioning is on track for early 3Q 2025, with 20Mt of limonite stockpiled.

The analyst lifts 20225 EPS by 8% following the result. Despite a small quarterly cash reduction (to US$216m), management expects around US$110m in VAT refunds in the next 12 months.

EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 also rise, supported by operational momentum. Target price increases 2% to $0.87, and Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.32
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 90.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Equal-weight (3) -

Nickel Industries' total production in 1Q25 missed Morgan Stanley's forecast by -5% and sales fell short by -4%. Production was weaker than expected at all the three nickel projects.

RKEF costs came in lower than expected and price 1% higher than the broker's estimate. The company deferred the final payment for the Excelsior Nickel Project by six months to January 1 and April 1 2026, with the project commissioning expected in 3Q25.

Forecasts largely unchanged. Equal-weight. Target unchanged at 55c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 90.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Nickel Industries reported 1Q earnings (EBITDA) of US$97m, above the pre-guided US$85-90m range, notes UBS.

RKEF nickel production of 31.8kt was slightly below the broker's estimate due to temporary weather-related shutdowns.

Management deferred two remaining ENC payments (US$253m total) by six months each into 1H of FY26, providing balance sheet relief amid ongoing market challenges, highlight the analysts.

UBS remains constructive on the company's medium-term growth, backed by assets such as ENC, expanded Hengjaya operations, and the future Sampala project.

The broker retains a Buy rating with an unchanged price target of 90 cents.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.35
If NIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 90.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Buy (1) -

UBS notes like-for-like advertised storage rates fell –2.3% in the March quarter, though the pace of decline moderated from –8.4% in the first half for National Storage REIT.

The strongest markets were Western Australia, Queensland, and Victoria, with New South Wales notably weaker. UBS believes rate momentum may be stabilising, with March showing the smallest monthly decline in FY25.

The broker sees operating leverage tied to housing activity and expects easing interest rates to support revenue per available metre in FY26.

Buy rating retained. Target price unchanged at $2.49.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.23
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star reported 3Q25 production of 388koz, below Macquarie and consensus forecasts by -6%, with all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) of $2,246/oz, some 6% higher than expected.

Sales for the quarter were similarly soft, the analyst comments. Weaker outcomes were attributed mainly to delayed access to higher-grade ore at KCGM and elevated maintenance costs at Yandal.

Management lowered FY25 sales guidance by -5% to 1.63–1.66Moz, and AISC guidance was raised by 9% to $2,100–2,200/oz.

Macquarie now forecasts FY26 production of 1.88Moz, below pre-3Q consensus of 1.91Moz. Net cash of $15m was below forecast, impacted by weaker results and no tax payments in the quarter.

Macquarie reduces FY25 EPS forecast by –5% and trims the target price by -4% to $26.00. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $19.88 Difference: $6.12
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights  Northern Star Resources reported 3Q25 production of 388,000 ounces, below expectations, with all-in-sustaining-costs of $2,246 per ounce, 13% above forecasts.

The shortfall was driven by delayed access to higher-grade ore at KCGM and elevated maintenance costs at Yandal. While Yandal and Kalgoorlie underperformed, Pogo remained a strong contributor.

Net cash fell to $15m, well below forecast, due to the weaker result and no tax payments in the quarter.

Management lowered FY25 sales guidance to 1.63–1.66moz (from 1.65–1.80moz). Cost guidance has been raised to $2,100–2,200 per ounce (from $1,850–2,100).

Morgans expects these revisions to weigh on sentiment in the near term, but views the Golden Pike delay as non-systemic. The De Grey Mining acquisition has been incorporated into forecasts, increasing group production and reducing unit costs from FY29.

The broker reduces EPS forecasts by –5% in FY25 and by -1 to -8% in following years due to the softer production outlook.

Target price is raised to $25.32 from $21.57, reflecting higher gold price assumptions and the value uplift from De Grey’s Hemi project. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $23.32 Current Price is $19.88 Difference: $3.44
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

Northern Star Resources March quarter production of 388koz missed consensus by -6% and prompted a downgrade to FY25 production guidance by -5%, along with -5% worse cost guidance.

UBS now models FY25 production at 1.60moz, down from 1.65moz, and cost (AISC) of $2,120/oz. The downgrade overshadows the initial integration modelling of Hemi, although the broker views the acquisition as accretive across key metrics.

The broker highlights downside risk to FY26 production targets at KCGM, where the underground ramp-up has lagged and access to higher-grade open pit ore has been delayed. 

UBS retains a Buy rating and $25.80 target price, underpinned by strong cash flows, accretive acquisitions, and a long-term gold price assumption of US$2,200/oz. 

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $19.88 Difference: $5.92
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Noting soft ingredient pricing and heightened competition observed by Adama Australia, Citi believes the same trend could apply to Nufarm.

An additional headwind is the risk the $100m revenue target for Omega-3 may not be achieved due to the large quota handed down by Peruvian authorities.

On the positive side, the broker thinks US tariffs would likely push up pricing, though there's uncertainty about the price elasticity of volumes.

Sell. Target unchanged at $3.75.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

oOh!media reported 1Q25 revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, outpacing expectations and tracking well into 2Q 2025, Macquarie notes.

The broker forecasts 1H25 revenue growth of 13%, tapering to 10% in second half, supported by prior cost control initiatives enhancing operating leverage.

Macquarie highlights the CEO’s announced departure may weigh on near-term sentiment but does not expect disruption to strategy and the analyst's EPS forecasts have been revised up by 14% for FY25, 11% for FY26, and 11% for FY27.

Target price is raised to $2.00 from $1.75. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.495
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the recent rally in Paladin Energy and Boss Energy ((BOE)) shares is likely a result of short-covering after these two were the most shorted stocks on the ASX on April 22.

While the selling of Paladin shares was justifiable due to a downgrade in guidance, the broker was puzzled by the same treatment for Boss. Because all uranium stocks were affected, the broker concluded it was due to a view on uranium.

The analyst believes the short-covering has further to go, given the recent rise in spot uranium prices and because there may be more positions to cover.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.13 Difference: $3.37
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.41, suggesting upside of 43.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PYC as Speculative Buy (1) -

PYC Therapeutics has provided a clinical update from its Phase 1/2 trial for lead candidate VP-001 in Retinitis Pigmentosa Type 11 (RP11). Bell Potter notes early data show continued improvement in LLVA (low light visual acuity), a likely registrational endpoint.

The trial demonstrated functional vision improvements in a condition with no approved treatments and continued to show a clean safety profile, with no serious adverse events related to the drug or procedure, explains the broker.

The analysts expect the upcoming June meeting with the FDA to clarify the Phase 2/3 trial design and timeline, and sees VP-001 as a potential first-in-class therapy, with approval possible by FY29-30.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and reduces the target to $2.30 from $2.70 due to dilution from a capital raise and a modest launch delay.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $1.105
If PYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Ramelius Resources' group gold sales of 84koz were 5% above Macquarie’s forecast, though all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) of $1,492/oz were 20% higher due to elevated costs at Edna May, now placed into care and maintenance. Production for the quarter was 80.5koz, as previously pre-reported.

FY25 guidance has been tightened, lifting the lower end of production to 290–300koz (from 270–300koz), with AISC guided at $1,550–1,650/oz. Macquarie aligns its forecast to 293koz at $1,617/oz.

Cash increased $166m to $620m, in line with expectations. Around 21% of sales were hedged at $3,029/oz versus spot sales at $4,557/oz, with 81koz of forward commitments to unwind by 2QFY27.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS estimate by –6% due to higher costs and trims forecast DPS by –11%, with minimal changes beyond. Target price remains $2.60. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.04
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ramelius Resources delivered a strong March quarter result, in Ord Minnett's opinion, generating $223m in free cash flow, with standout margins at Mt Magnet exceeding $3,000/oz.

Costs (AISC) were -9% below the broker's estimates, and FY25 guidance was narrowed to 290-300koz reflecting outperformance at Cue.

The broker highlights the ramp-up in exploration across Mt Magnet, Cue, and Penny, with the Southern Palladium Resources acquisition expected to enhance near-mine opportunities and feed into a positive integrated group study due 2Q FY26.

The broker raises its target price to $3.05 from $2.80 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.49
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Following 3Q25 gold production of 80.5koz, Ramelius Resources tightened its FY25 guidance to 290-300koz from 270-300koz. Cost guidance was also narrowed to $1,550-1,650/oz from $1,500-1,700/oz.

The new guidance compares with Shaw and Partners' forecast of 297.7koz at $1,589/oz cost.

The company ended the quarter with cash and gold of $657m. Upcoming catalyst includes the completion of Spartan Resources ((SPR)) acquisition expected in the September quarter.

Buy. Target price $3.14. The broker retains Ramelius as one of its preferred gold exposures.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.58
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources' 3Q25 result was close to Citi's expectation, with the company reiterating FY25 output guidance but pushing Matsa cost estimate up by 5% on forex movements.

The FY26 guidance for Motheo of 60kt copper was in line with the broker's forecast. Net debt declined further to US$243m.

The broker cut FY26 EPS forecast by -1% but made no change to $10.50 target price.

Rating remains at Neutral as the broker's cautious view on copper is balanced by a scarcity of liquid copper stocks on the ASX and the company's steady performance.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $0.26
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.81, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Sandfire Resources reported 3Q25 copper, zinc, and silver production below consensus by –5% to –8%. Motheo's cash costs were better by 4%, while MATSA missed by -4%.

Group earnings (EBITDA) proved –14% below consensus, and cash balances also missed, though net debt of US$243m was in line.

FY25 group copper-equivalent production guidance of 154kt is unchanged, but Matsa’s cost guidance rose 5% to US$1.58/lb due to euro strength.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS by –4% on higher Matsa costs but lifts FY26–27 EPS by 18%/7% on higher Motheo output forecasts.

The target price is increased to $10.90 from $10.80. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds, with the stock up 26% since early April.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $0.66
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.81, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Sandfire Resources' 3Q25 group copper production missed Morgan Stanley's forecast by -7.4% due to wet weather impacts at Motheo and Matsa. Cost was 3.9% higher vs the broker as a result of lower production.

The company raised unit cost guidance for Matsa mainly due to higher EUR/USD and lower production, and lowered capex guidance due to Motheo timing.

Underweight. Target unchanged at $6.95.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: minus $3.29 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.81, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Sandfire Resources delivered a resilient March quarter despite heavy rainfall disrupting operations at Matsa in Spain and Motheo in Botswana, Morgans observes.

Group production of 25.5kt copper, 21.5kt zinc, and 1.14Moz silver was slightly below forecasts. Group revenue of US$283m was –4% versus expectations, though earnings (EBITDA) of US$145m beat by 3%.

Net debt reduced by -16% quarter-on-quarter to US$243m, highlighting strong cash generation.

At Motheo, production was affected by flooding, but higher grades and recoveries offset volume losses, and unit costs of US$1.34/lb remained within guidance. Matsa unit costs increased to US$1.54/lb, up 5%, largely due to the stronger euro.

Morgans makes minor upgrades to production forecasts for the final quarter and now sits slightly below guidance for FY25 and EPS for FY25 are lowered by –4%, while estimates for FY26/FY27 rose by 18% and 7%, respectively.

The target price slips to $11.60 from $11.80. The stock is upgraded to Add from Hold.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $1.36
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.81, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Sandfire Resources reported March quarter copper production of 25.5kt, around –8% below forecast, following weather disruptions at both Matsa and Motheo.

Management maintains its FY25 production guidance of 109kt but the broker trims its internal forecast to 107kt, implying a 28% lift required in the June quarter. Cost guidance at Matsa was raised 4–5% due to euro strength and throughput impacts.

Despite production softness, net debt declined by -US$45m to US$243m, with the company still targeting a net cash position by September quarter 2026.

The analyst lowers forecast FY25 EPS by –5% due to lower output and some cost pressure, but raises FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by 7% and 2%, respectively.

Buy rating retained. Target price unchanged at $13.15.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $2.91
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.81, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Stanmore Resources' 1Q25 production and sales were slightly ahead of its expectations, but net debt rose to US$146m from US$26m at the end of December.

A deferral of capex to FY26 due to lower coal prices resulted in a cut to cash costs and capex guidance. The company maintained FY25 production guidance but weighted it to 2H due to weather-related issues in 1H.

The broker lifted FY25 net profit forecast to US$19m due to -4% lower costs vs the previous estimate of -US$15m loss.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $1.195
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources delivered a strong March quarter, assesses Ord Minnett, with production of 3.3mt and sales of 3.2mt, exceeding Ord Minnett’s estimates by 11% and 8%, respectively, despite heavy rainfall.

Cash ended lower than expected at US$169m, though working capital movements explain the change, and April cash was reportedly around US$220m, highlights the broker.

Cost and capital expenditure guidance fell by -4% and -23%, respectively, which the analysts point out enhances the company's ability to manage in a softer coal market.

The broker raises the target price to $2.40 from $2.20 partly due to an improved outlook for the Isaac Downs Extension Project. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.495
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Neutral (3) -

Syrah Resources' Balama operations remained offline for a third straight quarter due to ongoing unrest in Mozambique, notes UBS. An agreement on resettlement and compensation has been reached, allowing for a potential restart within four to six weeks.

First active anode material (AAM) sales from Vidalia are still guided for 2025, but timing depends on qualification by customers like Tesla and Lucid, explains the broker.

The company sold just 1kt of graphite at $827/t for the quarter, up 46% quarter-on-quarter but on negligible volumes.

Despite near-term headwinds, UBS highlights an improving backdrop for ex-China supply chains and favourable regulatory developments.

The DFC loan offers breathing room, note the analysts, with $66m in cash on hand and $43m of the loan still undrawn. Balama’s -$3m per month cash burn is manageable against expectations of a June restart.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and 30 cent target price.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.04
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting upside of 57.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Australia's March red wine export volumes to China were 34% higher than January/February combined, raising optimism Treasury Wine Estates is on track to achieve its China export target.

In another note, the broker has reviewed the latest Nielsen data showing the company's sales in America fell -15% in the four-week period to April 19, the same decline as the four weeks prior.

The broker believes the continued weakness shows FY25 earnings may fall short of expectations. The analyst is equally disappointed with the soft trend in luxury brand sales, given the company's investment in sales and marketing team to exclusively boost its sales.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $1.59
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.42, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

UBS retains a Buy rating and $14.00 price target on Treasury Wine Estates underpinned by accelerating Chinese demand and ongoing premiumisation efforts led by Penfolds.

China exports surged in the March 2025 quarter, according to Wine Australia data, with value up by 2,335% year-on-year, pushing exports to over $1bn.

While quarter-on-quarter volumes declined (due to Chinese New Year timing), Penfolds remains supply-constrained in meeting strong luxury wine demand, highlights the broker.

Despite subdued US wine exports and macro uncertainty, UBS remains constructive on Treasury’s strategy to reposition its Americas portfolio toward luxury, and sees multi-year Penfolds EBITS growth guidance as a key support for sentiment.

The broker sees China as a strong near-term accelerant and expects sentiment to improve as Treasury delivers on guidance despite broader industry concerns.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $5.09
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.42, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

Vault Minerals' 3QFY25 production and sales missed Macquarie estimates by –16% and –13%, respectively, with all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) of $2,553/oz, 7% above the broker’s forecast.

Production was impacted by grade underperformance at Mt Monger and KOTH. Cash and bullion rose by $49m to $625m but this was still below the expected $78m increase due to weaker output and higher growth capex.

Management's FY25 guidance of 390–410koz at AISC of $2,250–2,450/oz is maintained.

Macquarie expects output to improve in 4Q driven by higher-grade material from French Kiss, with year-to-date production at 71% of the midpoint. Realised gold prices were impacted by 40koz of hedged sales at $2,782/oz.

Macquarie lowers forecast FY25 EPS by –9% with minor cuts to forward estimates. Target price unchanged at $0.60. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.16
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

March quarter production for Vault Minerals was softer-than-expected by Ord Minnett, with output and sales missing the broker's forecasts by -10% and -7%, respectively.

Despite this disappointment, full-year FY25 guidance was maintained at 390-410koz at a cost (AISC) of between $2,250-2,450/oz, supported by improved March grades and anticipated stronger June quarter production from KOTH and Mt Monger.

Production momentum appears to be building, believe the analysts, with KOTH delivering its best monthly output of the year in March. Higher grades and new underground sources are expected to support a lift in quarterly production. 

Cash ended the quarter at $625m, slightly below the broker’s $670m forecast, due to higher growth expenditure. 

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and 60c target price.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.16
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VFY as Speculative Buy (1) -

Vitrafy Life Sciences reported a modest operating cash outflow of -$0.4m in the March quarter, observes Bell Potter, supported by $2.6m in grant income.

Underlying monthly cash costs of around -$1.1m are expected to rise as the US team expands and the Cryopreservation Unit v2 nears launch in the 2H 2025, explains the broker.

Total liquidity remains solid at approximately $34m, highlight the analysts, with further investments expected in R&D, commercial scale-up, and software upgrades for LifeChain, which remains on track for release in 1H 2026

The broker highlights the importance of Vitrafy’s North American blood sector pipeline and notes ongoing discussions with the US Army Institute of Surgical Research (USAISR) on joint marketing initiatives.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy (Speculative) rating and increases the valuation slightly to $2.00 from $1.99.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.5
If VFY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes Whitehaven Coal delivered stronger-than-expected March quarter production, with managed ROM output of 9.2mt versus the broker's 8.2mt forecast and saleable production of 7.4t versus 6.8mt.

Less positively, the analysts note equity coal sales fell -23% quarter-on-quarter to 6.3mt due to severe weather disruptions in Queensland.

The broker estimates pro-forma net debt of $0.5bn after factoring in the US$500m payment to BMA in early April, with large cash inflows from the Blackwater 30% selldown (US$1.1bn) and a -$363m stamp duty payment during the quarter.

FY25 guidance was maintained, with production and sales trending to the upper end of the range and unit costs towards the low end, note the analysts.

The broker expects the FY25 capital allocation review will likely favour dividends and potentially an expanded share buyback.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and lowers the target price to $7.40 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $2.32
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 3Q25 result was in line with Citi's expectations, leading to minimal revisions in the broker's forecasts.

The company's FY25 guidance for production and coal sales is at the upper end of the initial guidance range, and unit cost is at the low end. The broker's forecasts align with them.

The broker notes the spot HCC price has risen to US$190/t due to interest from Indian steel mills.

Buy. Target price $7.40.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $2.32
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Whitehaven Coal reported stronger-than-expected production for 3Q25, with run-of-mine coal and saleable production up 9% quarter-on-quarter and ahead of Macquarie’s estimates, despite wet weather disruptions.

Coal sales were in line with expectations, and FY25 guidance remains unchanged, with volumes tracking to the upper end and unit costs to the lower end of the guidance range.

Realised pricing in Queensland (77% of premium value, hard coking coal) was below the broker’s expectations, driven by mix effects and spot pricing, leading to a miss in revenue despite solid sales volumes.

New South Wales pricing was slightly better than expected. Macquarie notes the company has completed only 13% of its $72m buyback and sees pressure on the dividend due to expected negative EPS in 2H25 and breakeven cash flow ex-Blackwater-related transactions.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS forecast by –5% due to weaker realisations, though FY26–27 EPS estimates increase 1–2% from share count reductions. Target price remains $5.50 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.42
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal reported run-of-mine production of 9.2Mt, ahead of Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts by 6% and 9%, respectively.

Saleable coal output of 7.4Mt also beat estimates. Blackwater production was a highlight at 3.2Mt, up 5% versus forecast, while Daunia underperformed.

Pricing outcomes were mixed with Queensland met coal realised US$142/t (flat), and New South Wales thermal coal realised US$113/t (–4% vs forecast), the analyst notes

Production and sales are tracking toward the upper end of FY25 guidance, while unit costs remain near the lower end. The company is on track to deliver $100m in annualised cost savings by FY25-end and around $63m of the $72m buyback remains available, the broker explains.

Morgan Stanley retains its EPS forecast of $0.28 for FY25 and notes a neutral impact on its investment thesis. 

Overweight rating retained with $6.20 target price. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $1.12
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven reported March quarter saleable production of 7.4mt, exceeding Ord Minnett's weather-adjusted estimates by 6% despite heavy rainfall in Queensland.

Equity coal sales were in line at 6.3mt, with FY25 production guidance unchanged at 24.327.4mt and unit costs trending to the low end of guidance, explains the broker.

The company now holds around $1.2bn in cash following proceeds from the Blackwater selldown and is well-positioned to meet the remaining $0.9b deferred consideration, enabling investors to focus on free cash flow, suggests Ord Minnett.

The broker's target price falls slightly to $7.70 from $7.80 due to a marginally lower-than-expected cash balance. The Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $2.62
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production for Whitehaven Coal was stronger-than-expected by UBS and unit costs were also lower-than-forecast, though realised pricing remained soft.

Total ROM production reached 9.2mt, beating consensus of 8.4mt, while unit costs remain on track for the low end of FY25 guidance range, highlights the broker.

Blackwater and Maules Creek delivered solid results, in the analysts' view, while Narrabri lagged due to longwall productivity issues ahead of an 8-week longwall move starting April.

The broker’s Neutral rating and $5.15 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.07
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources