Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi's initial impressions of the a2 Milk Co AGM update were positive, particularly the earlier-than-expected introduction of a dividend policy starting in 1H25, compared to consensus expectations of 1H26.

The broker also views the increase in FY25 revenue guidance to mid-to-high single digits from mid-single digits as a positive development.

English label sales continue to track ahead of targets, although no comments were made regarding the China label. This suggests to Citi that later-stage sell-through may be lower than anticipated.

Buy rating with a $7.04 target price.

Target price is $7.04 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $2.23
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABG as Buy (1) -

Citi observes a resilient operational performance in Abacus Group's trading update, highlighting largely stable portfolio occupancy and positive leasing spreads.

Abacus retail showed strong momentum, consistent with trends across the broader retail real estate sub-sector. Office occupancy dipped slightly to 92.5%, but leasing spreads remain positive, notes the broker.

Management maintained FY25 distribution guidance of 8.5cpu.

Citi maintains the $1.35 target price and a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.17
If ABG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ADH as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter reviews the outlook for retailers and upgrades Adairs to Buy from Hold. The broker believes there are positive tailwinds for the company, with "supportive web traffic" during the Linen Lover sales in late October.

Black Friday sales are also seen as a potential positive, supporting membership growth in the Linen Lovers program.

The analyst views new store rollouts as a challenge in NSW and QLD due to competition in the large-format retail space for the homemaker market.

Bell Potter also envisions multiple valuation expansion from two factors, including growth in the channel mix with Mocka through a Bunnings partnership and margin improvements from the national distribution centre.

Buy rating. Target price $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.32
If ADH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

The Essential Services Commission of South Australia (ESCOSA) has proposed a capacity market for long-duration capacity, which could extend the life of AGL Energy's Torrens Island Power Station (TIPS) by two years, suggests Macquarie.

The proposed market may allow AGL to operate TIPS until the SA-NSW interconnector opens in FY28, with limited downside risk and potential upside if market volatility exceeds expectations, explains the analyst.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target price to $11.40 from $11.28.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $10.78 Difference: $0.62
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Citi views the merger between Amcor and Berry as logical, expecting it to generate material synergies of -US$650m, equivalent to approximately 3% of sales, and combine two leading global plastic packaging franchises.

The broker highlights a downside case raised by some market participants, suggesting higher EPS growth may come at the expense of lower return on capital metrics and a slightly more cyclical portfolio.

The portfolio’s cyclicality stems from remaining distribution and commoditised exposure at Berry, explain the analysts.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating with a $17 target price.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.02 Difference: $0.98
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Commenting upon the agreement with Berry Global Group to combine in an all-stock transaction, UBS highlights Amcor has a solid track record of delivering on its synergy targets.

Management is planning on -US$650m in annual synergy benefits by year three, with 40% realised by year one, and 80% by year two. Around $530m of synergies will be cost-related, notes the broker, with 60% relating to procurement.

The combined new entity will target shareholder value creation of around 13-18%, up from standalone Amcor's 10-15%, notes UBS, supported by a doubling annual cash flows.

The Neutral rating and $16.65 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $16.02 Difference: $0.63
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter reviews the outlook for retailers and raises the target price for Accent Group by 12% to $2.80, driven by a lower risk-free rate impacting the valuation.

The broker's key picks in the retail sector are described as "global rollout worthy," including Premier Investments ((PMV)), Australian tech leader JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), and Accent Group, where the analyst identifies growth levers.

Bell Potter also favours Universal Store Group (UNI)) for its successful execution of management's growth strategy.

Accent Group is Buy rated with a $2.80 target price.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.55
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Accent Group's softer-than-expected AGM trading update prompts Citi to lower FY25-27 profit forecasts by -9%, reflecting reduced gross margins due to higher promotional activity.

The analysts do not expect further gross margin contraction in 2H25 and forecast flat gross margins compared to the previous corresponding period.

Citi maintains a Buy rating, arguing the market is undervaluing the company’s longer-term growth potential and its superior scale benefits with landlords and suppliers.

The target price is reduced to $2.47 from $2.57.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.22
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

On first take, Morgan Stanley highlights total sales for Accent Group rose 6.8% year-on-year for the first twenty weeks of FY25, compared to growth of 8.7% in the first seven weeks.

Gross margins declined by -70bps year-on-year due to increased store promotions, while the cost of doing business as a percentage of sales increased.

Management remains in discussions with the UK Fraser's Group regarding potential strategic opportunities.

Morgan Stanley views the AGM update as mixed and believes there is downside risk to consensus FY25 EPS estimates. The longer-term story remains "intact."

Overweight rating with a $2.75 target price. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.5
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AX1 as Add (1) -

Management confirmed at Accent Group's AGM trading update sales momentum from the first seven weeks has continued into FY25, with customers focused on promotions and value.

In the first 20 weeks, total group sales rose 6.8%, with like-for-like sales up 3.5%, consistent with the growth in the first seven weeks.

Increased promotional activity has reduced margins by -70bps on the previous year, with the cost of doing business remaining a key focus for management.

Morgans lowers earnings forecasts by -2% for FY25, while FY26 estimates remain unchanged.

Add rating and $2.40 target price retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.15
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

As the trading update communicated at the AGM showed margin decline due increased promotions, Accent Group's forecasts have been downgraded by UBS.

But as the broker continues to see growth drivers at work, and the business well-managed, the Buy rating remains in place. Target price only loses -3c to $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.25
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes Spence demonstrated a fully automated mine, with the intellectual knowledge potentially applicable across BHP Group's portfolio.

The analyst highlights the operation was "impressive" and is Chile's first mine with gender balance. Strong mining performance and autonomous implementation provide a potential test case for Escondida.

Typically, one truck requires five drivers per annum, and removing this need results in cost savings, while tyre life improves by approximately 40% without drivers.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating with a target price of $46.85. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $46.85 Current Price is $39.81 Difference: $7.04
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.46, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCX as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter updates the retail sector and adjusts revenue forecasts for City Chic Collective following the recent trading update, with the first eight weeks of 1H25 sales down -9% on the previous corresponding period.

Management's FY25 guidance indicates revenue between $142m-$160m and earnings of $11m-$18m.

Bell Potter lowers the EPS forecast to a loss in FY25 from breakeven and reduces the FY26 EPS estimate by -73.2% from previous expectations.

Target price decreases -13% to 14c. Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.015
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.20, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights a buying opportunity in CSL shares following concerns the Trump administration may implement policies negatively impacting the company's vaccine business (around 15% of group EBIT) and the broader pharmaceutical sector.

The broker expects CSL will be largely spared from potential pharma pricing legislation for two reasons. Firstly, the company's gross margins are lower than the pharmaceutical industry average due to the high costs of plasma collection and fractionation.

Secondly, many of CSL's products are life-saving or lack substitutes, explain the analysts.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with an unchanged target price of $345.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $273.72 Difference: $71.28
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $335.13, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter reviews the outlook for retailers and lowers the target price for Cettire by -28%% to $1.45.

The broker's key picks in the retail sector are described as "global rollout worthy," including Premier Investments ((PMV)), Australian tech leader JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), and Accent Group, where the analyst identifies growth levers.

Bell Potter also favours Universal Store Group (UNI)) for its successful execution of management's growth strategy.

Cettire is Hold rated.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.195
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

The near-term outlook for Elders is promising, suggest analysts at Citi following the company's investor day.

Management has introduced a strategy to expand own-brand products, aiming for backward integration of up to 65% by the end of FY25, highlights the broker.

The cattle commission rate has increased, boosting margins, and management is optimistic about earnings growth from Delta Agribusiness, the recent acquisition, from FY24 levels.

Citi notes optimism for gross margin improvement in Rural Products, contingent on price stabilisation, and maintains the $9.75 target price and Buy rating.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $2.25
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Buy (1) -

After acquiring EM Solutions in 2019 for approximately -$26m to support the SpaceLink venture (abandoned and written off in 2022), Electro Optic Systems has now entered into a binding agreement to sell the business for $144m, explains Ord Minnett.

The broker notes proceeds will eliminate debt and provide around $85m in balance sheet flexibility to pursue growth in core business areas or additional M&A.

The transaction effectively grants the company 24 months to advance its counter-drone strategy and secure additional contract wins, suggests Ord Minnett.

The broker lowers the target price to $2.00 from $2.80, reflecting reduced forecast earnings following the sale.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.94
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HSN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

FY25 guidance was reaffirmed at Hansen Technologies' AGM, with Shaw and Partners noting the earlier-than-expected turnaround for Powercloud as a key takeaway.

Powercloud, which provides billing and customer management software for utility companies in Germany, has been refocused on the DACH region and its leading retail core service (RCS) solution, explains the broker.

Management has reduced Powercloud’s headcount, ensuring a return to profitability in the coming months, according to the analysts.

The Buy rating, High Risk designation, and $7.20 target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $1.75
If HSN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

ikeGPS Group reported a slightly higher-than-expected 1H25 operating loss of -NZ$4.9m, versus Bell Potter's forecast of -NZ$4.4m, on the back of pre-released revenue growth of 13%. The broker highlights the net loss was flat year-on-year.

The group generated subscription revenue growth of 27% to NZ$6.5m, with stable transaction revenues, the broker observes.

Growth in selling, general, and administrative expenses of 15% annually underpinned a rise in operating expenses of 10%, in line with the analyst's forecast.

Bell Potter highlights momentum has continued into 2H25 with another NZ$2.4m in subscriptions, bringing the year-to-date total to NZ$37m versus 1H25 at NZ$33m.

Speculative Buy rating and 94c target retained.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.37
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter reviews the outlook for retailers and raises the target price for JB Hi-Fi by 13.7% to $98, driven by a lower risk-free rate impacting the valuation.

The broker's key picks in the retail sector are described as "global rollout worthy," including Premier Investments ((PMV)), Australian tech leader JB Hi-Fi, and Accent Group ((AX1)), where the analyst identifies growth levers.

Bell Potter also favours Universal Store Group (UNI)) for its successful execution of management's growth strategy.

JB Hi-Fi is Buy rated with a $98 target price. 

Target price is $98.00 Current Price is $88.68 Difference: $9.32
If JBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.87, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Judging from Citi's initial commentary, it looks like Kogan.com's AGM update has beaten both market consensus and Citi's expectations.

The broker in particular points towards adjusted EBITDA.

Although the finer details are not yet available, and assuming November-December sales follow the usual seasonal pattern, Citi can see potential for consensus upgrades to forecasts.

Sell, target $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LGI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners makes no changes to its forecasts for LGI, which designs and installs biogas extraction systems, following FY25 guidance for underlying earnings (EBITDA) growth of 12-15% year-on-year.

Management reiterated the 14MW battery roll-out at Mugga Lane is on track, with commissioning expected in late-2025.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.60 target price are retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.5
If LGI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOV as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter reviews the outlook for retailers and lowers the Lovisa Holdings target price by -6% to $31 due to the de-rating of the company's overseas competitor group and the relative underperformance of Lovisa Holdings.

There are no changes to the analyst's earnings forecasts.

Hold rating. Target price $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.82 Difference: $4.18
If LOV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.40, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

In its initial assessment, Citi views the AGM trading update from Lovisa Holdings as weaker than expected, citing a slowdown in like-for-like sales and a slower pace of new store rollouts.

The broker notes like-for-like sales grew 1% in the first twenty weeks, compared to consensus expectations of 2.5% in 1H25, suggesting a slowdown over the last twelve weeks from 2% growth in the first eight weeks of FY25.

Net new store rollouts of 27 in the first twenty weeks lag behind consensus expectations of 48 net new stores in 1H25.

Sell rating. Target price $25.95.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $26.82 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.40, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi retains its $35 target price for Mineral Resources but upgrades the rating to Neutral from Sell, citing a -25% discount to the broker's valuation and recent share price underperformance.

Despite noting multiple headwinds and limited interest from incremental buyers due to governance and leadership concerns, the broker emphasises the underlying assets remain unchanged.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $33.84 Difference: $1.16
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Neutral (3) -

Judging from UBS's early commentary, it looks like Megaport's AGM update today has been a reconfirmation of FY25 guidance, but FY26 will require consensus to reset some -2.5% lower at the midpoint.

Given the ongoing investments in headcount, the broker suggests the market wants to see an acceleration in the pace of growth, not a downward adjustment.

Forecasts have remained unchanged but the analysts do flag there may be a negative impact on the margin in FY26.

Target $10.15. Neutral.

Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $8.36 Difference: $1.79
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy (1) -

Following MaxiPARTS's trading update, Ord Minnett retains its $2.60 target price, noting a slowdown in volumes on the East Coast, partially offset by continued strength in the West Coast market.

The near-term outlook appears mixed, concede the analysts, but management anticipates further improvements in financial metrics for FY25.

The broker expects medium-term growth rates to recover to mid-single digits, compared to the current low single-digit levels.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.71
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PGC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades Paragon Care to Hold from Buy following the company's AGM update based on the stock's valuation.

The broker observes year-to-date revenue growth of 15.5% in FY25, with pharmacy revenue growth of 19.1% and complementary medicines up 17%. Service and surgical specialties experienced a decline in revenue.

Management provided "run rates" for the divisions, which the analyst views as guidance indications, although not explicitly stated as such. The run rates suggest revenue growth for Paragon of 8% in FY25, with gross margin slipping -60bps to 8.9%.

Cost-out guidance was retained at $5m in FY25 and $12m in FY26.

Bell Potter lowers the EPS forecast for FY25 by -2% and raises the FY26 EPS forecast by 1.3%. No change to the 52c target price.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.02
If PGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PGC as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target price for Paragon Care to 54c from 46c and upgrades the rating to Buy from Accumulate following a positive AGM trading update and FY25 revenue guidance, which came in 7% ahead of consensus.

Pharmacy revenue growth of 19.1% in FY25 to-date is over 2.5 times system growth, increasing the broker’s confidence in management meeting its ambitious longer-term market share targets.

For the longer-term, Ord Minnett sees upside risk to its forecasts, which already assume approximately 9% retail market share.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.04
If PGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Pinnacle Investment Management has raised $400m through an institutional placement at $20.30 per share to fund two offshore acquisitions totaling -$143m, expanding into the UK and US markets, observes Ord Minnett.

The company has also launched a $25m share purchase plan (SPP) for retail investors.

Pinnacle will allocate -$93m for a 22.5% stake in VSS Capital, a US-based private equity manager, and -$50m for a 25% stake in Pacific Asset Management, a UK-based fund distribution and investment company.

The remaining funds will be used for seed capital for new funds ($75m) and reserve capital for future acquisitions ($182m). Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to $26 from $23, citing an enhanced growth outlook from the acquisitions.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.12 Difference: $3.88
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.54, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWH as Add (1) -

PWR Holdings reported a softer-than-expected trading update due to weakness in OEM and aftermarket segments. Aerospace and defence revenues rose 67% in 1H25 following 100% growth in FY24, Morgans highlights. The outlook for this division remains positive.

Management expects 1H25 revenue to decline by -4% year-on-year and FY25 net profit to fall -65% at the midpoint. The weakness in OEM is attributed to three EV programs not proceeding, despite the company having received orders in FY24 for FY25 programs.

The broker also notes the aftermarket segment has been impacted by macroeconomic headwinds, with customers avoiding high-end products.

Morgans lowers FY25 earnings forecasts by -19% and FY26 by -3%, viewing the cancellation of three niche EV programs as a temporary setback.

Target price decreases to $9.20 from $11. Add rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.66 Difference: $1.54
If PWH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.54, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley consulted an independent expert in the airline loyalty industry and confirmed loyalty businesses are "attractive, high-multiple businesses," with Qantas Airways at the "forefront."

The broker highlights Qantas has led the global industry, with profitability first disclosed in 2008, and Morgan Stanley expects more airlines to adopt greater transparency.

The expert also confirmed private equity interest in this space and believes one successful carve out could be followed by others. The first step is increased disclosure of loyalty programs from other airlines.

Overweight rating and $10.50 target price remain unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: $1.55
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.93, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Citi notes steady trading at Qube Holdings evident from recent AGM commentary, with prospects for higher logistics earnings driven by better-than-expected agricultural conditions.

The broker also anticipates increased automotive terminal revenue due to an industry inventory build.

Citi retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to $4.45 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.57
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SKS as Add (1) -

Morgans remains upbeat on SKS Technologies' AGM update, suggesting the company provided increased "visibility" on the growing demand and positive momentum for its services.

Management reiterated FY25 revenue guidance of 90.7% growth to $280m and revised profit before tax guidance upwards by 181% to $17m.

Morgans makes no changes to earnings forecasts, but raises the target price to $2.15 from $1.80 and maintains an Add rating.

The broker highlights the company is an integrated provider of AV, IT, electrical, and communication network solutions for the energy and IT networking sectors, with exposure to data centres.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.18
If SKS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVR as Buy (1) -

The AGM trading update from Solvar provided a positive outlook for the start of FY25, Bell Potter observes, with growth in Australia.

Management's guidance for the FY25 loan book stands at $850m, reflecting growth of 8%, with net profit of $34m versus $29m in FY24, exceeding the consensus estimate of $31.5m.

The broker highlights 1Q25 net profit rose 18.7% on 4Q24, with the Australian loan book increasing 8.5% on the previous corresponding period. The run-off in the NZ loan book continued.

Bell Potter lowers net profit estimates by -3.4% and -11.9% for FY25/FY26 due to changes in net interest.

Target price lifts to $1.48 from $1.30, arising from better NZ loan book growth expectations. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.48 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.23
If SVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVR as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the AGM 1Q25 trading update revealed Solvar is making progress in winding down NZ operations and improving business quality.

Management guided net profit (excluding legal costs) to around $34m, representing growth of 17.2% year-on-year and exceeding the analyst's forecast of $30.3m.

The company also expects loan book growth of 8% to approximately $850m and bad debts within the 3.5%-4.5% target range.

Morgans raises EPS forecasts by around 11% for FY25 and 8% for FY26 based on the trading update.

Add rating remains unchanged. Target price increases to $1.45 from $1.38.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.2
If SVR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Add (1) -

Tasmea announced FY25 net profit guidance of $48m, at the upper end of guidance, Morgans observes. Management is expected to update guidance following the 1H25 earnings report.

The guidance incorporates 10 months of Future Engineering Group earnings and 11 months of West Coast Living System earnings, equating to an estimated contribution of $2.6m in earnings for FY26, the broker highlights.

Morgans raises EPS forecasts by 12% and 9% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, in line with management's upgraded guidance.

The target price increases 60% to $3.60 from $2.25 due to a change in valuation. Add rating remains unchanged.

The broker believes the stock will continue to re-rate as investors gain confidence in management's ability to generate organic revenue growth.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.8
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Following today's WiseTech Global's guidance downgrade, Citi continues to view earnings (EBITDA) guidance as conservative, but anticipates an -8% consensus forecast downgrade.

In an initial view, the broker is surprised by the -$50-$100m revenue reduction, primarily attributed to a six-month delay for Container Transport Optimisation, questioning whether this product could have contributed $75m in 2H FY25.

Citi suspects other factors, such as slower roll-outs, may be contributing to the downgrade and plans to address concerns with management regarding revenue visibility and drivers.

Management aims to offset the revenue delay through other "significant initiatives," which Citi believes may involve additional products, including Phase 2 of ComplianceWise.

Citi notes a positive outcome from the external board review, which found no wrongdoing by Richard White despite recent media allegations.

Buy rating. Target $124.50.

Target price is $124.50 Current Price is $138.93 Difference: minus $14.43 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.78, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

Due to a product delay, Macquarie notes (in an early assessment) WiseTech Global today lowered its FY25 guidance for revenue and earnings (EBITDA) by -6% and -7%, respectively, at the mid-points during its AGM.

Management emphasised no impact on long-term value for three products and outlined "other significant initiatives" to offset near-term revenue impacts while maintaining future growth potential.

The main product delay concerns Container Transport Optimisation, now expected in 2H FY25 instead of 2Q FY25, attributed to recent organisational changes, explains the broker.

ComplianceWise launched in 1Q FY25 as planned, and CargoWise Next remains on schedule.

Macquarie highlights no negative findings from a third-party review conducted by the WiseTech board following recent media allegations. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and a $100 target price.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $138.93 Difference: minus $38.93 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.78, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi views strong FY24 results from competitor Sage as having limited competitive implications for Xero's core small business customer base.

The broker notes Sage's growth remains focused on its mid-market offering, Sage Intacct.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with a $198 target price.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $173.43 Difference: $24.57
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $196.15, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources