Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target of $19.20 retained for a2 Milk, with the Buy rating "emphasised".

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $14.97 Difference: $4.23
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.34, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans expects electricity demand will remain resilient in the second half despite interruptions to economic activity. Moreover, AGL Energy carries minimal exposure to the spot price as customer demand is well matched by generation output.

The stock has fallen -19% from its post reporting high in the midst of a broader market sell-off and the broker upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is reduced to $18.35 from $18.38.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $16.89 Difference: $1.46
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.89, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AHY as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target of $1.30 retained for Asaleo Care, with the Buy rating "emphasised".

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.3
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Atlas Arteria will feel the impact of the virus, Macquarie notes, but offsetting currency movements are material and medium-term government responses are likely to be positive to valuations. The stock offers material value for investors and while the virus initially hurts, valuation should recover quickly.

The dividend is already below cash flow providing scope to maintain current growth, and if the currency remains low, there is minor upside, Macquarie suggests. Upgrade to Outperform, target falls to $8.14 from $8.42 on short-term impact.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $2.23
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following the rapid correction in Australian bank share prices, UBS believes value is emerging for the first time in several years. The broker is now incorporating an Australian recession in its economic outlook along with quantitative easing.

While acknowledging a low level of confidence in forecasts, the broker believes consensus is now materially overstating the case and this is reflected in current share prices.

As a result, ANZ Bank is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. This is the first time UBS has had a Buy rating on an Australian bank in three years. Target is $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.24 Difference: $2.76
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.34, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold, given recent share price weakness. The broker considers APA Group the best-of-breed in the energy infrastructure segment.

Furthermore, the broker suggests the nature of the revenue makes it an ideal place to deploy capital to avoid exposure to coronavirus, while delivering a 5.3% cash yield. Target is $10.90.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $9.37 Difference: $1.53
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.30, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APT as Sell (5) -

UBS has updated global growth forecasts. While the Buy Now Pay Later segment can rapidly alter credit, higher unemployment is expected to drive bad debts up in the short term.

While quantifying the impact is difficult, UBS notes Afterpay's receivables turnover is higher than Zip Co ((Z1P)), making funding risks lower.

However, Zip asks applicants about their employment status, an advantage in the broker's view.

Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $17.90 from $18.20.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $23.06 Difference: minus $5.16 (current price is over target).
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.65, suggesting upside of 63.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following the rapid correction in Australian bank share prices, UBS believes value is emerging for the first time in several years. The broker is now incorporating an Australian recession in its economic outlook along with quantitative easing.

While acknowledging a low level of confidence in forecasts, the broker believes consensus is now materially overstating the case and this is reflected in current share prices.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target is $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.52, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse cuts oil price forecasts substantially, lowering Brent in 2020 to US$37-42/bbl from US$55-63/bbl. 2021 forecasts are also reduced, to US$45-50/bbl from US$55-65/bbl.

Earnings for BHP Group are reduced by around -2% over FY20 and -7% over FY21. Neutral rating and $41 target maintained.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $25.95 Difference: $15.05
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.15, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKL as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target of $72.80 retained for Blackmores, with an unchanged Neutral rating.

Citi analysts point out Blackmores' level of gearing is higher than the industry average, but not high compared to other industries.

Target price is $72.80 Current Price is $66.66 Difference: $6.14
If BKL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $65.97, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Washington H Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), in which Brickworks is a major cross-shareholder, has guided to a -70-75% drop in profit in the second half from the first due to reduced earnings in major investments.

Brickworks expects a "significant" decline in first half earnings for Building Products due to weaker building activity. The company's Property contribution is nevertheless expected to be stronger.

The net result is guidance ot a -37% decline in second half underlying profit. The broker retains Neutral, cutting its target to $17.90 from $18.50.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $15.19 Difference: $2.71
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.68, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following the rapid correction in Australian bank share prices, UBS believes value is emerging for the first time in several years. The broker is now incorporating an Australian recession in its economic outlook along with quantitative easing.

While acknowledging a low level of confidence in forecasts, the broker believes consensus is now materially overstating the case and this is reflected in current share prices.

UBS upgrades Commonwealth Bank to Neutral from Sell. The main concern previously was a stretched valuation but the share price has now fallen such that it represents reasonable value. Target is $65.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $64.39 Difference: $0.61
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.46, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCL as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target is $10.60 for Coca-Cola Amatil. Rating remains Sell.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $10.26 Difference: $0.34
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

With respect to the virus, Macquarie sees limited risk to Consumer Staples particularly supermarkets, Coca-Cola Amatil and Domino's Pizza.

The broker has left its forecasts and $13.60 target for Coca-Cola unchanged but has upgraded to Outperform.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $10.26 Difference: $3.34
If CCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target is $3.20. Rating is Neutral.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.16
If CGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

With respect to the virus, Macquarie sees limited risk to Consumer Staples particularly supermarkets, Coca-Cola Amatil and Domino's Pizza.

The broker has not adjusted its forecasts for Coles and retains Outperform and a $17.20 target.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $15.66 Difference: $1.54
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.10, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

A brave team of healthcare analysts at Citi has upgraded CSL to Buy from Neutral if only because the share price continues to weaken. Citi has kept the $332 price target intact, while forecasting double-digit percentages growth in EPS for each of the following three years.

Moreover, Citi analysts believe risk to earnings in the medium-term remains to the upside because CSL continues to increase market share due to its superior plasma collection position.

Target price is $332.00 Current Price is $304.00 Difference: $28
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $326.44, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTX as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse suggests the sharp decline in the share price would tip the scale towards the takeover not proceeding.

The broker poses the question: would a potential acquirer proceed with a proposal at a 40% premium to the current share price and could funding be obtained in the current environment in any case.

The broker sets the target at $24.00, reduced from $34.74, and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.69 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.45, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -

Caltex Australia has highlighted downside risk to jet volumes. Ord Minnett reduces estimates for the Lytton refinery and the fuels & infrastructure division.

The broker assesses the corporate appeal is not supporting the share price. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $30 from $35.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.69 Difference: $5.31
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.45, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target for Domino's Pizza is $49.80 with an unchanged Sell rating.

Target price is $49.80 Current Price is $52.82 Difference: minus $3.02 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $57.99, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

With respect to the virus, Macquarie sees limited risk to Consumer Staples particularly supermarkets, Coca-Cola Amatil and Domino's Pizza.

The broker has left its forecasts and $66.10 target for Domino's Pizza unchanged but upgraded to Outperform.

Target price is $66.10 Current Price is $52.82 Difference: $13.28
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.99, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie sees earnings risk for JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Treasury Wine Estates and Flight Centre from lower consumer discretionary spending in the face of increasing virus risk.

In the wake of the US travel ban on Europe, the broker cuts its FY20 earnings forecast cut by -34% for Flight Centre. Target falls to $17.95 from $35.40.

"We believe consensus is yet to adjust to this new reality," says Macquarie. Downgrade to Underperform. No earnings forecast numbers have been provided.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $18.93 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.74, suggesting upside of 88.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

With Fortescue Metals' share price down -13% in seven days (prior to today) despite unchanged iron ore prices, the broker notes the stock is trading on a spot PE multiple of 3.8x and offering a 20% FY21 free cash fow yield.

Given the broker expects the bulk of this to be returned to shareholders, a 20% dividend yield is possible. Outperform reiterated, target unchanged at $12.40.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $9.58 Difference: $2.82
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FNP as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target is $5.90. Rating is Buy.

Citi analysts point out Freedom Foods' level of gearing is higher than the industry average, but not high compared to other industries.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $1.64
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects conditions will become tougher and the decision by the company to withdraw guidance is no surprise.

Still, the market appears to be pricing in a declining earnings stream for the next three years, while the broker assumes the virus affects earnings for the remainder of 2020 followed by a recovery in 2021.

The stock appears oversold and a Buy rating is retained. Target is lowered to $3.28 from $3.79.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $1.6
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees earnings risk for JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Treasury Wine Estates and Flight Centre from lower consumer discretionary spending in the face of increasing virus risk.

FY21 earnings forecast cut by -5% for Harvey Norman. Target falls to $3.20 from $3.90, Neutral retained. No earnings forecast numbers have been provided.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.05
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, given the slump in the share price. Target is reduced to $5.40 from $5.70.

After updating commodity price forecasts Ord Minnett retains a relative preference for diversified miners and gold stocks.

The broker finds selective value in base metals while considers it too early for lithium names.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $1.36
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ING as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target for Inghams Group is $3.90 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.55
If ING meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees earnings risk for JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Treasury Wine Estates and Flight Centre from lower consumer discretionary spending in the face of increasing virus risk.

FY21 earnings forecast cut by -3% for JB Hi-Fi. Target falls to $38.80 from $51.10, Outperform retained. No earnings forecast numbers have been provided.

Target price is $38.80 Current Price is $33.25 Difference: $5.55
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.70, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Finalisation of the Bauna acquisition has been delayed to the June quarter from the March quarter, pending environmental licences, approvals and debt funding finalisation. The acquisition would make Karoon Gas Australia's fourth largest liquids producer, the broker notes.

Plunging oil prices nevertheless put the deal at risk, but the broker notes Karoon Energy would retain $500m or 90cps in cash (last trading price 37c) and be eligible for a $50m deposit return if failure is not Karoon's fault. Outperform retained, target falls to $1.80 from $1.90 on the delay.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $1.42
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 374% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 400.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

After the slump in the share price, Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is lowered to $16.00 from $16.20.

After updating commodity price forecasts Ord Minnett retains a relative preference for diversified miners and gold stocks.

The broker finds selective value in base metals while considers it too early for lithium names.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.20 Difference: $1.8
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

With respect to the virus, Macquarie sees limited risk to Consumer Staples particularly supermarkets, Coca-Cola Amatil and Domino's Pizza.

The broker has not adjusted its forecasts for Metcash and retains Neutral and a $2.65 target.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.29
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following the rapid correction in Australian bank share prices, UBS believes value is emerging for the first time in several years. The broker is now incorporating an Australian recession in its economic outlook along with quantitative easing.

While acknowledging a low level of confidence in forecasts, the broker believes consensus is now materially overstating the case and this is reflected in current share prices.

UBS upgrades National Australia Bank to Neutral from Sell. The bank is currently facing a number of challenges and the broker awaits the strategic review. Target is $19.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.87 Difference: $1.13
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.77, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, noting Medibank Private ((MPL)) is trading at an undeserved premium to nib Holdings, even though both are subject to the same pressures.

The broker does not expect material headwinds for the health insurers from the coronavirus issue, although there may be some delay in elective healthcare costs. Target is reduced to $4.64 from $5.22.

Target price is $4.64 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.81
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 32.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

After the slump in the share price, Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Sell. Target is raised to $2.60 from $2.55.

After updating commodity price forecasts Ord Minnett retains a relative preference for diversified miners and gold stocks.

The broker finds selective value in base metals while considers it too early for lithium names.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.49
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 58.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Ramsay Health Plus and Remedy Healthcare have announced a new joint venture called Ramsay Connect.

This will deliver community and home-based care, including rehabilitation in the home subsequent to joint replacement, out-of-hospital palliative care and health management programs.

Morgan Stanley considers this a positive move that should improve the sustainability of the private health model but remains uncertain about the financial impact as no specific details were provided.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $61. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $60.66 Difference: $0.34
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.77, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

The coronavirus pandemic has potential to cause disruption to private hospitals, UBS notes. This could come in the form of deferred elective surgery and issues about accessing consumables as well as the quarantining of health workers.

However, depending on the severity of the pandemic, the public hospital system may need to outsource submissions to the private system which would offset the loss of private elective work.

While this issue is likely to dominate the news over the next 3-6 months, the broker believes the broader concerns about private health affordability and declining participation are likely to persist.

No earnings changes are made and a Neutral rating is maintained. Target is $73.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $60.66 Difference: $12.34
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.77, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

After the slump in the share price, Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $4.40 from $3.90.

After updating commodity price forecasts Ord Minnett retains a relative preference for diversified miners and gold stocks.

The broker finds selective value in base metals while considers it too early for lithium names.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $1.12
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 47.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SPK as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The sell-off in the stock after the results provides an opportunity, Credit Suisse suggests. The broker remains sufficiently attracted to the company's execution on its strategy and competitive position.

A focus on mobile and cloud services, along with cost reductions, should support modest earnings growth as some of the additional media expenditure rolls off in FY21.

The stock is down sufficiently, in the broker's view, to support an upgrade in the rating to Neutral from Underperform. Target is NZ$4.05.

Current Price is $4.18. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos has completed the sale of a 25% interest in Darwin LNG and Bayu-Undan (offshore East Timor) as expected, post the acquisition of ConocoPhillips' NT interests. Santos received more for the stakes than the broker had forecast.

The broker believes the company remains in control of its production portfolio while at the same time driving down costs, but weak oil prices put pressure on the balance sheet, earnings and growth options.

Outperform and $8.60 target retained, with the broker noting spot crude (Brent) is currently -43% below 2020-21 forecasts.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $4.15
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 89.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold, given the decline in the share price. Target is reduced to $7.97 from $8.49.

While volatiility appears likely to continue in the short term the stock is now in value territory, implying an oil price of US$45/bbl which the broker considers is unsustainable in the long term.

The company has reached an agreement to sell down a 25% interest in Darwin LNG and Bayu Undan for US$390m. Discussions on a sell-down of Barossa to around 40% ownership are also well advanced.

Target price is $7.97 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $3.52
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 89.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley envisages several downside impacts from the current coronavirus scenario. Airport traffic is around 10-20% of traffic on roads and contributes around 38% to the company's proportional revenue.

Australian airports are reporting -10-15% declines in passengers, reflecting travel plans. The broker estimates an impact on FY20 traffic of -1%.

Truck traffic contributes 17% of all Transurban's traffic and 27% of proportional revenue and a -1% drop is also included in estimates for FY20.

Commuter traffic is also likely to be further affected by widespread workplace and education institution closures, the broker notes.

Equal-weight and $15.70 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $12.65 Difference: $3.05
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.89, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts have undertaken a rigorous re-assessment of Australia's Food & Beverage sector. Sector top picks are a2 Milk and Asaleo Care. Citi analysts remind investors food and beverage companies typically have modest operating leverage and good balance sheets, which means these shares should outperform in a volatile market.

Today's sector analysis includes risk to sales, balance sheet positions and extent of the PE de-rating. Price target for Treasury Wine Estates is $12.30.

Citi rates this stock Neutral and explains more clarity needs to emerge around the coronavirus impact on sales before the stock will be able to re-rate.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $2.96
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.87, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees earnings risk for JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Treasury Wine Estates and Flight Centre from lower consumer discretionary spending in the face of increasing virus risk.

FY21 earnings forecast cut by -5% for Treasury Wine. Target falls to $9.40 from $12.00, Neutral retained. No earnings forecast numbers have been provided.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $0.06
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.87, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Outperform (1) -

With respect to the virus, Macquarie sees limited risk to Consumer Staples particularly supermarkets, Coca-Cola Amatil and Domino's Pizza.

For Wesfarmers, Bunnings has proven relatively resilient through past shocks so forecasts unchanged. The broker has cut forecasts for K-Mart (lower foot traffic and discretionary spending) and Officeworks (increased work-from-home and lower business activity).

FY20 group earnings forecast falls -1.5%. No updated numbers have been provided. Outperform retained, but no mention of change to target.

Current Price is $36.75. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $39.54, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Outperform (1) -

With respect to the virus, Macquarie sees limited risk to Consumer Staples particularly supermarkets, Coca-Cola Amatil and Domino's Pizza.

While the broker has left its forecasts for Coles unchanged, earnings forecasts for Woolworths fall -5% given exposure through Big W and the company's hotel assets. Supermarket forecasts are unchanged. Target falls to $42.10 from $43.40, Outperform retained.

The broker has not provided updated earnings forecast numbers.

Target price is $42.10 Current Price is $35.95 Difference: $6.15
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.55, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates Z1P as Buy (1) -

UBS has updated global growth forecasts. While the Buy Now Pay Later segment can rapidly alter credit, higher unemployment is expected to drive bad debts up in the short term.

While quantifying the impact is difficult, UBS notes Afterpay's ((APT)) receivables turnover is higher than Zip Co, making funding risks lower.

However, Zip asks applicants about their employment status, an advantage in the broker's view.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.90 from $4.40.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $2.54
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately 187% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting upside of 155.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources