Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AGL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

It appears Citi analysts were not that impressed with AGL's Strategy Day presentation. They note higher growth plans come with higher capex attached and there is not much clarity about how exactly earnings are going to benefit.

Citi has thus decided to adopt a more cautious view, hence the downgrade to Neutral from Buy. The analysts would like to see a more attractive entry point, given uncertainty about the next growth phase, unless there is another spike in wholesale electricity prices.

Target price declines to $26.31 from $26.88. Earnings estimates have been slightly reduced.

Target price is $26.31 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $1.44
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.31, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Buy (1) -

The company focused on capital allocation at its investor briefing, with allocation commensurate to increasing projected returns.

Deutsche Bank remains impressed with the reconfiguring of the business and expects the company to increase returns on equity over the next few years.

Buy rating. Target is reduced to $27.70 from $28.60.

Target price is $27.70 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $2.83
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.31, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the market may be comforted by management's announcement that no offshore opportunities had been found to date of any scale. The main focus for FY18 will be costs although management has not provided any quantitative targets.

The company has outlined a staged approach to filling the energy void that will be left by the replacement of Liddell Power Station when it ends its life in 2022.

Accumulate retained and target is $30.15.

Target price is $30.15 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $5.28
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.31, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

AGL's investor day brought a more aggressive growth strategy, with FY18-20 capex guidance increased to $1.25-1.9bn from $920m. The projects outlined are not new, the broker notes, but the commitment to growth is strengthened.

There will still be money left over for M&A and/or capital management, the broker notes. The market may yet to be convinced but the broker believes the growth strategy is sound and is confident given a positive track record. Buy retained. Target rises to $29.50 from $29.20.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $24.87 Difference: $4.63
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.31, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Lighten (4) -

The stock has de-rated and appears relatively cheap, but Ord Minnett envisages some risk to FY19 forecasts and suspects life sciences margins may come in weaker than previously expected.

Forecasts assume life sciences margins improve by 10 basis points in FY19 but the broker acknowledges this could prove challenging.

Lighten. Target is $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.13, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects cash profit to be flat for two years. The capital release from asset sales should position the bank to undertake around $3bn in buybacks in 2018 and 2019 and maintain modest growth in earnings per share and dividend.

The broker is less confident in the revenue recovery for ANZ, given the impact of institutional re-balancing, non-core asset sales and weaker-than-peer margin outcomes in Australian banking.

Rating is Equal-weight. Target is raised to $29.00 from $28.50. Sector view is In-Line.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.66 Difference: $0.34
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.17, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Australian bank shares have underperformed their Asian peers by some -30% in 2017 and UBS does not think this is unwarranted. Moreover, the analysts have now come to the conclusion the outlook paints quite a challenge for banks in Australia.

Due to factors including falling house prices and a projected 30-60% step-up in mortgage repayments, UBS now anticipates a steady decline in mortgage funding (flow) over the next three years. This is expected to combine with an increase in the run-off/paydown rate as many borrowers' Interest Only period matures.

As a result, the analysts have cut their EPS forecasts for the sector by up to -3%, reducing the sector's outlook from low growth to flat. Sector ranking (in order of preference) is Macquarie on top, followed by Westpac, CommBank, ANZ and NAB last.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.66 Difference: $1.84
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.17, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes media reports the company's construction program of littoral combat ships is five months behind schedule.

Nevertheless, the broker also points out this is well ahead of the 11-month delay experienced by the company's US peer, Lockheed Martin, which is constructing a rival design.

The US president has approved the increased expenditure levels for the US military, which include the construction of three littoral combat ships.

Accumulate rating and $2 target maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.33
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight as the company benefits from Chinese capacity reductions that drive firmer alumina prices. Alumina price forecasts are increased by 12% for both 2018 and 2019.

Target is raised to $2.20 from $2.10. Attractive industry view retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

In aggregate, Credit Suisse expects the proposed US tax changes will be positive for BlueScope and has estimated a net benefit of around 5% to net profit on FY17 pro forma basis.

The impact could range from zero if interest is not deductible to an improvement of 12% if interest is deductible, and 100% of expensing of capital expenditure is allowed.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and $13.95 target.

Target price is $13.95 Current Price is $14.37 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.05, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

The bank has contested a number of allegations, but admitted to some others, in the response to the proceedings launched by AUSTRAC. Morgan Stanley suspects downside risks from concerns over conduct are not factored into estimates and trading multiples.

While the broker's analysis highlights that the bank has retained some advantages versus its peers, the gap is narrowing and growth and return profiles are moderating.Trading multiples, in the broker's view, have not de-rated far enough to reflect this.

Underweight. Target is $71. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $80.04 Difference: minus $9.04 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $78.59, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Australian bank shares have underperformed their Asian peers by some -30% in 2017 and UBS does not think this is unwarranted. Moreover, the analysts have now come to the conclusion the outlook paints quite a challenge for banks in Australia.

Due to factors including falling house prices and a projected 30-60% step-up in mortgage repayments, UBS now anticipates a steady decline in mortgage funding (flow) over the next three years. This is expected to combine with an increase in the run-off/paydown rate as many borrowers' Interest Only period matures.

As a result, the analysts have cut their EPS forecasts for the sector by up to -3%, reducing the sector's outlook from low growth to flat. Sector ranking (in order of preference) is Macquarie on top, followed by Westpac, CommBank, ANZ and NAB last.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $80.04 Difference: $2.96
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.59, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. The target is increased to $4.15 from $3.75 to reflect higher nickel price forecasts.

As the equity is trading in line with the new target and offers only limited upside the broker has downgraded its rating. Attractive sector view retained.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

The company has approved the Cataby project in Western Australia. Offtake agreements have been secured for 85% of synthetic retail production for a minimum of four years. Capital expenditure is expected to be in the range of $250-275m.

Citi notes a negative development is the increase of US$90m in rehabilitation provisions for the US operations which were closed.

Neutral rating and $10 target retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.67 Difference: $0.33
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

The company has approved Cataby, a large chloride ilmenite deposit. Credit Suisse notes key parameters are unchanged but there is increased clarity regarding offtake arrangements.

The broker makes minor changes to estimates and retains a Outperform rating and $11.10 target.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.67 Difference: $1.43
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ILU as Sell (5) -

The company has approved the Cataby project in Western Australia with first production expected in mid 2019. The company values the project at $390m.

The company has also updated on US rehabilitation expenditure, with the provision increased by US$90m. Deutsche Bank lifts 2018/19 zircon price estimates by 7-8%.

Sell retained. Target rises to $7.20 from $7.00.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $9.67 Difference: minus $2.47 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates MIN as Hold (3) -

The company has announced an all-scrip bid for Australian gas producer AWE ((AWE)) valuing it at $0.75 at the last close. This follows the bid from Chinese group CERCG at $0.73 a share, all cash.

Deutsche Bank considers the bid fairly valued although suspects adding gas may dilute the lithium story for the company. On the other hand, Mineral Resources has mostly been successful with its M&A track record.

Hold rating and $15 target retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $17.79 Difference: minus $2.79 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.43, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

The company has been awarded the primary and secondary crushing for the Pilgangoora project.

Morgan Stanley is of the view that Mineral Resources, being the only provider with expertise in lithium, would likely be able to extract better margins than in its typical iron ore crushing contract.

Overweight. Target is $20.30. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $17.79 Difference: $2.51
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.43, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -

Australian bank shares have underperformed their Asian peers by some -30% in 2017 and UBS does not think this is unwarranted. Moreover, the analysts have now come to the conclusion the outlook paints quite a challenge for banks in Australia.

Due to factors including falling house prices and a projected 30-60% step-up in mortgage repayments, UBS now anticipates a steady decline in mortgage funding (flow) over the next three years. This is expected to combine with an increase in the run-off/paydown rate as many borrowers' Interest Only period matures.

As a result, the analysts have cut their EPS forecasts for the sector by up to -3%, reducing the sector's outlook from low growth to flat. Sector ranking (in order of preference) is Macquarie on top, followed by Westpac, CommBank, ANZ and NAB last.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $97.79 Difference: $7.21
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $96.39, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Australian bank shares have underperformed their Asian peers by some -30% in 2017 and UBS does not think this is unwarranted. Moreover, the analysts have now come to the conclusion the outlook paints quite a challenge for banks in Australia.

Due to factors including falling house prices and a projected 30-60% step-up in mortgage repayments, UBS now anticipates a steady decline in mortgage funding (flow) over the next three years. This is expected to combine with an increase in the run-off/paydown rate as many borrowers' Interest Only period matures.

As a result, the analysts have cut their EPS forecasts for the sector by up to -3%, reducing the sector's outlook from low growth to flat. Sector ranking (in order of preference) is Macquarie on top, followed by Westpac, CommBank, ANZ and NAB last.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $29.86 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.06, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

The company will sell its 89.89% interest in Bonikro in Cote d'Ivoire for US$81m following a strategic review. Citi is positive about the deal based on the price and the upgrade to the asset portfolio it entails.

This will free up cash for other purposes such as exploration and development of Wafi-Golpu. The broker retains a Neutral rating and $23.20 target.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $22.09 Difference: $1.11
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.34, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

The company has divested Bonikro for US$81m. This is no surprise to Credit Suisse and is consistent with the non-core nature of the asset.

The broker does point out Newcrest remains committed to Cote d'Ivoire exploration, but without an operating presence in the country the fixed cost of maintaining a presence and supporting government relationships will now be higher.

Underperform and $18.20 target retained.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $22.09 Difference: minus $3.89 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.34, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NCM as Sell (5) -

The company has sold its stake in Bonikro gold mine for US$81m. Deutsche Bank notes the exit is consistent with the company's strategy to focus on core assets.

The broker expects an updated feasibility study on Wafi-Golpu by March 2018. Sell retained on valuation. Target is $19.00.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $22.09 Difference: minus $3.09 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.34, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Newcrest has sold Bonikro gold mine in Cote d'Ivoire for US$81m. The mine had been subject to a strategic review so the decision was somewhat anticipated, Macquarie notes. The mine only accounted for 5% of group reduction in FY17.

As Gosowong will cease production in FY19 the company will have only three production centres from FY20 - Cadia Valley, Telfer and Lihir. The two main development options are Wafi-Golpu and the Cascabel project.

Neutral and $22 target retained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $22.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.34, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NSR as Underperform (5) -

The company has announced $102.1m of acquisition opportunities that are either contracted or under exclusive due diligence. These will be funded by a $50m institutional equity placement, a $15m share purchase plan and debt.

The increase in occupancy is a good outcome but Macquarie wants more evidence of underlying portfolio growth in order to become more positive. Any major acquisitions are likely to require further equity capital.

Underperform rating. Target rises to $1.38 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Underweight. The broker increases copper price assumptions for the near and longer term and includes more near-term depreciation at Prominent Hill to reflect the drawdown of ore inventory.

Target is raised to $9.00 from $7.80. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $0.76
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

DSO ore sales are back on the agenda with a contract for around 1mt over 12 months expected to be completed and announced in coming weeks.

This offsets the announcement that capital expenditure for Pilgangoora is rising. Citi adjust forecasts accordingly and maintains a target of $0.95 and a Neutral/High Risk rating.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Commodity price revisions, particularly metallurgical coal, aluminium and manganese, have affected FY18 and FY19 earnings estimates by -6% and 24% respectively.

The broker reduces the buyback value for the first half and carries the value into FY19, in line with the slower rate of take-up evident through the first half.

Target is raised to $3.75 from $3.40. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.48
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

The proposed US tax changes appear positive for the company, as US generated earnings could potentially grow to 43% of group operating earnings in FY18 from 40% in FY17, on Credit Suisse estimates.

It appears likely the company can maintain or grow its US market share and reinvest capital to recover its historical leadership in technology.

Neutral retained. Target is $14.00.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.72, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley likes SunCorp's ambition but believes tangible benefits from its marketplace strategy will require patience.

The aim is to fuse real and digital experiences, staffed by a mix of product specialists and non-financial services graduates.

Target is $12.90. Underweight retained. In-Line sector view.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $14.20 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.98, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TAH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Shareholders have approved the scheme merger with Tatts ((TTS)). Credit Suisse has downgraded to Neutral from Outperform until there is more clarity regarding the company's ability to surpass $0.26 per share in dividends by FY20.

Credit Suisse expects the wagering industry structure is likely to improve further, with the advent of a possible point of consumption tax in Victoria from FY19. Target is raised to $5.20 from $4.80.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.07
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Australian bank shares have underperformed their Asian peers by some -30% in 2017 and UBS does not think this is unwarranted. Moreover, the analysts have now come to the conclusion the outlook paints quite a challenge for banks in Australia.

Due to factors including falling house prices and a projected 30-60% step-up in mortgage repayments, UBS now anticipates a steady decline in mortgage funding (flow) over the next three years. This is expected to combine with an increase in the run-off/paydown rate as many borrowers' Interest Only period matures.

As a result, the analysts have cut their EPS forecasts for the sector by up to -3%, reducing the sector's outlook from low growth to flat. Sector ranking (in order of preference) is Macquarie on top, followed by Westpac, CommBank, ANZ and NAB last.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $31.61 Difference: $0.89
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.70, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -

The broker has upgraded its 2018-19 thermal coal price forecasts by 4-6% and met coal by 16-23% based on ongoing Chinese coal sector reform, ongoing capacity closure in China and a need for modest new capacity increases elsewhere to meet demand.

Wesfarmers' earnings forecasts are subsequently increased by 1-5% and the broker's target to $42.70 from $41.60.

The broker retains Neutral on grocery competition, discretionary competition (Amazon), weak consumer sentiment and a slowing housing market, and prefers Woolworths ((WOW)) in the supermarket space.

Target price is $42.70 Current Price is $44.36 Difference: minus $1.66 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.21, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WFD as Outperform (1) -

The company has agreed merger terms with Unibail-Rodamco, valuing the stock at US$7.55 a share based on Unibail's last closing price. Credit Suisse observes the value of the consideration is somewhat objective, given it is funded 65% by scrip.

Allowing for synergies in the spin-off of 90% of Westfield Labs to shareholders, to be re-badged OneMarket, the broker finds the pricing is in line with its assessment of fair value for the company's property management and development platform.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $10.00 from $8.95.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $0.51
If WFD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WFD as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate following further analysis of the takeover bid by Unibail-Rodamco. Valuation and target stands at $10.60, but the broker acknowledges there is limited upside from current levels in the absence of a higher bid.

Westfield shareholders will receive a 90% stake in OneMarket, formerly known as Westfield Retail Solutions and Westfield Labs, which will be spun out to security holders post the deal being implemented.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $1.11
If WFD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WFD as Buy (1) -

The broker notes that if the French takeover of Westfield succeeds, the new entity will be listed on the ASX as an international CDI and be the 8th largest listed REIT. The cash component is likely to be reinvested by institutions into other A-REITs.

The broker will not rule out interest emerging elsewhere from private equity or other large retail REITs. Buy retained. Target rises to $10.20 from $9.35, noting that the takeover bid equates to $10.01 on last close.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $0.71
If WFD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WTC as Underperform (5) -

The company has made its seventh acquisition for FY18 with the purchase of Microlistics for up to $40m. The consideration includes a $20m earn-out.

Microlistics provides warehouse management solutions to logistics companies globally and has capabilities that would have been difficult for the company to develop internally. The acquisition drives a 4% upgrade to Credit Suisse estimates for FY18 earnings per share.

Underperform maintained. Target is raised to $7.60 from $6.00.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $12.81 Difference: minus $5.21 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting downside of -38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources