Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Air New Zealand reported 1H25 guidance of profit before tax of NZ$120m-NZ$160m, significantly exceeding Macquarie's expectations.

Management noted some labour cost efficiencies and "green shoots" from corporate domestic travel. Aircraft availability is not expected to improve until 2026, with the company possibly exploring other leases.

The airline's Investor Day outlined an incremental earnings target of NZ$300m-NZ$400m from "controllable" initiatives, alongside trading conditions transitioning to a more "normalised" state.

Macquarie raises EPS forecasts by 98% and 10% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Target price revised to NZ79c from NZ69c. Outperform rating unchanged.

Current Price is $0.50. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Citi has conducted conversations with six US Toyota dealers to gain insights into the progress of ARB Corp-fitted Trailhunter variants.

The analyst notes the Tacoma Trailhunter, fitted with five ARB products, continues to experience low availability, and orders for the 4Runner Trailhunter cannot be placed yet.

Citi remains upbeat on the company's relationship with Toyota, emphasising the uptake of ARB products relies on relationships with car dealers, including Ford, where there is a lack of knowledge and incentives. The 4WP acquisition has the potential to improve US dealership relationships.

The broker flags that Toyota might bring the Tacoma to Australia, which is viewed as positive for leveraging US products in the domestic market.

Buy rated with a $50 target price.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $42.01 Difference: $7.99
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.20, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter describes Aroa Biosurgery's 1H result as "solid," meeting or slightly exceeding the broker's forecasts. The company expects its first period of positive cash flow in H2.

Revenue increased by 23% to NZ$39.1m, driven by Myriad sales and ongoing market share expansion for this product via deeper penetration of the existing client base and new accounts, note the analysts.

The broker highlights management's focus on expanding the sales force to prioritise revenue growth over short-term earnings growth.

The Buy rating and 90c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.23
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights from Aroa Biosurgery's in-line 1H results revenue growth for Myriad (tissue repair) and Ovitex (hernia and breast reconstruction) of 45% and 25%, respectively. 

The half ended with 265 active Myriad accounts, up from 218 at the end of FY24.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance for product revenue of between NZ$80-NZ$87m and normalised earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$2-6m.

The broker retains the target price of $1.05 and the Add rating.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.38
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX announced the Release 2 of the CHESS replacement project is targeted for commencement in 2029.

Citi highlights Release 2 will cost -$270m-$320m, significantly higher than Release 1, which is also flagged by management at the top end of prior guidance between -$105m-$125m.

Both are higher than originally expected, which the analyst stresses is disappointing.

The broker explains ASX is reviewing whether to adopt a shorter T+1 settlement period, noting the US, Argentina, Canada, and Mexico already use T+1, while China and Hong Kong operate on T+0.

Citi considers the defence against ASIC allegations as a negative overhang for the stock.

Neutral rated. Target price $62.30.

Target price is $62.30 Current Price is $66.18 Difference: minus $3.88 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.01, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights total Chess costs of up to -$445m, with Chess Release 1 costs at the upper end of the previous range at -$105m-$125m and Release 2 estimated at -$270m-$320m for ASX.

The broker anticipates only slight negative impacts on consensus earnings from the announcement for FY25-FY27 and notes capex guidance remains at -$160m-$170m over the period.

Morgan Stanley does not expect ASX to achieve strong earnings growth from a rebound in capital markets due to the extent of cost growth. The analyst prefers Macquarie Group ((MQG)).

Unchanged $58 target price. Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view: In Line. No changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $58.00 Current Price is $66.18 Difference: minus $8.18 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.01, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

Now the ASX has updated the market on anticipated costs of -$420m for the replacement of its Chess system, UBS remains convinced the exchange will be battling serious headwinds in the years ahead to achieve growth for shareholders.

Even allowing for greater futures trading volumes, the broker highlights its EPS forecasts post FY25 are still reducing.

In light of the anticipated 4% CAGR outlook, the broker finds the valuation is too high. Price target does lift to $64.15 from $57. Sell rating retained.

Target price is $64.15 Current Price is $66.18 Difference: minus $2.03 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.01, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Brickworks provided a trading update at its AGM. Macquarie highlights North America as the "soft spot," with 1Q25 revenues down -10% year-on-year, while plant closures reduced margins.

Challenging market conditions continue to affect the company and earnings margins, with revenue falling -5% despite some restructuring.

Management indicated ongoing weak demand for Australian building products over the next year and continued softness in the US, with multi-residential and non-residential segments, accounting for around 60% of revenues, remaining subdued.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -2.8% for FY25 and -0.1% for FY26, incorporating a development profit at Oakdale West and $44m in development profits for FY25.

The target price decreases to $27.40 from $27.70. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $26.60 Difference: $0.8
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.63, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BKW as Accumulate (2) -

Brickworks' Property segment is expected to benefit from rental income growth driven by mark-to-market rental uplifts and rent from future developments, notes Ord Minnett after reviewing yesterday's AGM trading update.

The Industrial Property portfolio remains the primary driver of long-term upside, highlight the analysts, while Building Products in Australia and North America are anticipated to remain subdued over the next 12 months.

The $31 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.60 Difference: $4.4
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.63, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Speculative Buy-rated Brazilian Rare Earths to $5.50 from $7.00 following new ore characterisation and initial metallurgy results for the Monte Alto deposit.

The broker notes the primary ore mineral is chevkinite and expects management to begin mining hard rock as direct ship ore while continuing to ship monazite.

For direct ship ore, China may pay only 50% of the recoverable mixed rare earth oxides (MREO), uranium and scandium, explains the analyst, offsetting the lower capex and opex by comparison to the broker's prior expectation for sulfuric acid roast processing.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $3.2
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COF as Hold (3) -

A new analyst at Bell Potter reviews Centuria Office REIT's position in the Australian office market, noting non-CBD sub-market supply and demand dynamics suggest a recovery remains some way off.

Although the REIT's portfolio has limited stranded assets and improving occupancy, the analyst identifies better risk-adjusted opportunities in other REIT sub-sectors at this time.

The Hold rating and $1.25 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.045
If COF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Citi estimates the pilot introduction of carded play in Victoria from 1H26 onwards could negatively impact Endeavour Group's gaming revenue, which represents around one-fifth of group earnings.

The broker highlights the shift to carded play resulted in a -11% decline in Star Entertainment Group's ((SGR)) revenue during the first four weeks. The impact on Endeavour may depend on how many Victorian hotels participate and whether the trials lead to a mandatory change.

Citi believes downside risks to the group's earnings arise from cost inflation, longer-term rent resets, and potential gaming regulations.

No change to the Neutral rating or $4.89 target price.

Target price is $4.89 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.44
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ERD as Buy (1) -

Eroad's 1H normalised earnings (EBIT) of $4.7m aligned with Shaw and Partners' forecast, and management reaffirmed FY25/26 guidance.

Costs remain well managed, note the analysts, with a strong cash flow result. The US strategy is progressing well, with the pipeline in the US now twice the average of the past five years.

The broker lowers its target price to $1.40 from $1.50 due to slightly reduced revenue forecasts. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.56
If ERD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GTK as Buy (1) -

Gentrack Group's FY24 revenue rose by 25%, surpassing management's guidance, Bell Potter's forecasts, and consensus, driven by broad-based gains across operating units, recurring and non-recurring sources, and regions.

The 11% earnings (EBITDA) margin was at the lower end of the guided range despite the revenue beat, as long-term incentive (LTI) costs exceeded the broker's expectations.

Management maintained medium-term targets, notes Bell Potter, citing uncertainty around the timing of potential deal closures and revenue recognition in FY25.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to $13.90 from $11.50, reflecting higher forecasts for earnings leverage and a lower assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $12.04 Difference: $1.86
If GTK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GTK as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a strong FY24 result from Gentrack Group, with sales and earnings exceeding expectations by 7% and 10%, respectively.

Long-term incentive expenses increased due to accelerated payroll tax payable in the UK. These changes have been incorporated into the broker's forecasts. The group added four new utilities and two airports.

Management did not provide FY25 guidance but confirmed a 15% compound average growth in revenue and an earnings margin target of 15%-20%, with R&D fully expensed.

The broker flagged concerns over the rise in non-recurring revenue but remains positive about the company's margin potential, viewing a 30% earnings margin as achievable.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -29.5% and -24.1% for FY25 and FY26 for the incentive cost changes.

The target price increases to $13.59 from $12.80, and the Overweight rating is retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.04 Difference: $1.46
If GTK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GTK as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Gentrack Group's FY24 revenue and underlying earnings (EBITDA) exceeded Shaw and Partners' forecasts by 7% and 12%, respectively. Underlying cash earnings margins expanded by 2.2 percentage points, demonstrating clear operating leverage, note the analysts.

The broker believes FY25 consensus estimates are achievable, and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) margins could reach the upper end of the 15-20% range, supporting a more optimistic market view of long-term margin potential.

Shaw and Partners raises the target price to $11.80 from $10.10, driven by higher medium-term cash flow forecasts and a lower assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $12.04 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If GTK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi has come to the conclusion that Hub24's momentum has remained strong and with no significant pickup in hiring, growth in costs should be trending in line with the bottom of the guided range.

The broker notes consensus is assuming 14% growth in costs while its own forecast is for 10%. The broker sees potential for a positive margin surprise.

Neutral. Target $56.70.

Target price is $56.70 Current Price is $74.99 Difference: minus $18.29 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Harvey Norman reported like-for-like sales growth of 3.1% from July to October, in line with the July update of 3.3%, but below Citi's forecast of 5% and marginally lower than the 1H25 consensus of 3.7%.

At first glance, the analyst notes Harvey Norman appears to have underperformed The Good Guys, which reported 5% like-for-like sales growth for the September quarter.

With results for November and December yet to materialise, including contributions from Black Friday sales, Citi leaves its forecasts unchanged.

The $5.50 target price for Harvey Norman remains unchanged.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.71
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGL as Buy (1) -

Management at integrated marketing communications business IVE Group reiterated FY25 guidance for underlying profit of $45-50m during last week's AGM.

Bell Potter highlights underlying earnings (EBITDA) rose by 17% in the first four months of FY25 compared to the prior corresponding period.

This earnings growth was driven by margin expansion, supported by incremental synergies from Ovato's printing and finishing operations and the JakPak acquisition, notes the analyst.

The Buy rating and $2.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.54
If IGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the agreement to sell Eleonore, Quebec, for up to US$795m by Newmont Corp, 16% above Macquarie's valuation.

Management flagged two further asset sales in 1Q25, releasing around US$3.6bn, excluding the final two sales.

Macquarie believes the full US$3bn buyback will be retained with the fourth asset sale. The analyst states the company's divestment process has been "highly successful" amid a strong gold price environment.

No change to the Outperform rating or $82 target price.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $64.40 Difference: $17.6
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Hold (3) -

Exceeding guidance of US$2bn, Newmont Corp has raised approximately US$3.6bn from the sale of six assets, including the latest sale of the Eleonore gold mine in Quebec for US$795m, highlights Ord Minnett.

Upon completion of the sale, the broker forecasts net debt of approximately US$2.6bn, down from US$6.8bn at the start of 2024.

The Hold rating and $77.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $77.50 Current Price is $64.40 Difference: $13.1
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NOL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

As part of NobleOak Life's AGM trading update, management stated claims experience is in line with expectations, and margins are expected to remain stable, notes Shaw and Partners.

For the first four months of FY25, in-force (currently active) annualised premium growth of 19% is outperforming both guidance and the broker's 15% forecast.

No changes are made to forecasts. The Buy, High Risk rating and $2.85 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $1.25
If NOL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Citi has come to the conclusion that Netwealth Group's momentum has remained strong and with no significant pickup in hiring, growth in costs should be trending in line with management's guidance for a slight increase only.

Neutral. Target $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $30.12 Difference: minus $3.12 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.76, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Qantas Airways shares have rallied by some 70% over the year past and UBS, in response, has now downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

The broker does believe general confidence in the sustainability of earnings post covid is allowing the share price to re-rate.

Price target lifts to $9. Adjusting for capex, the broker argues the PE multiple has now reached a mid-cycle level.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $0.06
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi's first thoughts on today's in-line 3Q update by QBE Insurance include management is on track for FY24 group combined operating ratio (COR) guidance of around 93.5%.

Year-to-date gross written premium (GWP) growth is 2% on both a reported and constant currency basis. Excluding portfolio exits, GWP growth rises to 5%, or 9% when crop is excluded, highlights the broker.

CAT trends remain favourable relative to the year-to-date allowance. As expected, returns were strong and the analyst notes reduced renewal premium rate increases in 3Q compared to the 1H.

Buy rating. Target $19.30.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $19.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.12, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

At first glance, QBE Insurance's 3Q trading update was in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts and management's FY24 Outlook is unchanged.

The group reported 3Q constant currency gross written premium (GWP) growth of approximately 3% and a combined operating ratio (CoR) of around 93.5%.

Management noted North America crop yields will fall short of pre-harvest projections but remain strong enough to broadly offset the impact of lower commodity prices.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating, citing increased confidence in the North America turnaround and stabilising forward curves. The target is $20.80.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $19.34 Difference: $1.46
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.12, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

As QBE Insurance remains on track to deliver FY24 guidance, UBS believes the shares are en route to be re-rated. Q3 is usually a volatile and treacherous period for the insurer, but not this year judging from today's Q3 trading update.

As earnings visibility is seemingly improving, UBS suggests QBE Insurance's valuation looks "compelling".

Target price lifts to $21.50. Buy.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.34 Difference: $2.16
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.12, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Regis Healthcare's trading update at the AGM showed average occupancy of 95.5% in 1Q25, a rise of 60bps from 4Q24, with spot occupancy at 96% as of 31 October 2024, above the company's budget, Macquarie highlights.

Average government revenue per occupied bed day rose to $299.30 in 1Q25, stable compared to 4Q24, with the analyst forecasting $309 in 1H25.

Macquarie lifts FY25 EPS forecast by 1%, reflecting slight changes to occupancy assumptions. The company is seen as well-positioned with net cash of $64.9m and positive organic growth.

Target price rises to $7.25 from $6.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.56 Difference: $0.69
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Ramsay Health Care reiterated FY25 guidance for positive net profit growth, with consensus forecasting 16% year-on-year growth, and Citi estimating 8% growth on FY24.

The broker explains risks of wage cost rises exceeding inflation, with enterprise bargaining agreements covering around 80% of nursing staff due for renewal next year.

This follows Ramsay Health Care nurses striking in NSW for a 20% pay rise over three years. This is likely to reignite conversations with payors if wage growth exceeds forecasts.

Citi notes the company has reached better agreements with two payors in 1Q2025, and indexation to private hospitals from private health insurers remains a key variable.

Neutral rated. Target $42.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $39.35 Difference: $2.65
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.40, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Ramsay Health Care's AGM update revealed expectations of growth in activity levels in FY25 despite the loss of the Peel campus, Macquarie observes. The company announced two improved contracts with payors and has restarted conversations with others.

Post-UK election, the NHS tariff increased to 3.9% from 0.6%, partially offset by higher wage inflation and increased payroll taxes.

The broker notes Ramsay Sante reported revenue growth of 8.8% in 1Q25.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecast by -6% for FY26. Target price falls to $42.75 from $45.75 due to the EPS forecast downgrade and a change in the risk-free rate.

Neutral rated.

Target price is $42.75 Current Price is $39.35 Difference: $3.4
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.40, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Scentre Group's landholdings around Westfield Hornsby have been rezoned as part of the NSW government's transport-oriented development program.

The broker notes the scheme could accommodate 2,300-plus new apartments on the site, creating incremental value of $230m-plus, if air rights sales are "crystallised."

Morgan Stanley observes the Hornsby site has a book value of $977m, representing 3% of the portfolio. Development would require 5% affordable housing and 3,000 sqm of community space.

Target price is $4.35. Overweight rating retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.66
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMP as Buy, High Risk (1) -

SmartPay's 1H results showed normalised earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$8.0m (circa 16% margins), slightly below Shaw and Partners' forecast of NZ$8.7m, with costs remaining well managed. Impressive cash conversion of 117% is noted.

The broker reduces revenue forecasts in Australia due to uncertainty surrounding the payments regulatory framework. Management has modeled a potential -10% revenue impact in the event of a surcharging ban.

The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained, with a new $1.20 target. No reference is made to the prior target in the broker's research, though the previous target in the FNArena database was $2.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.64
If SMP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Neutral (3) -

Following a first glance at today's 1H results by Web Travel, Citi highlights a soft 2Q but management noted the revenue margin has stabilised at 6.5% in October. 

Management now expects earnings (EBITDA) for FY25 to range between $117-122m, broadly aligning with the consensus forecast, observes the broker.

First-half B2B earnings declined by approximately -11% year-on-year, consistent with pre-reported guidance, notes Citi.

A $150m buyback was announced to take advantage of the lower share price and reduce potential dilution from convertibles, explains the broker.

The Neutral, High Risk rating and $5.55 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $1.32
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Today's market update by Web Travel revealed financial numbers that were better or much better than what UBS and market consensus had penciled in.

In an early response, UBS makes the call the worst is now in the past after a challenging six months for the company, and growth in FY26 should be stronger than current forecasts on management's guidance.

There's also an on market buyback up to $150m to offset convertible note dilution, paid for through cash reserves. UBS has some questions but all in all exudes a positive sentiment.

Buy. Target $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $1.37
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WJL as Add (1) -

Webjet Group's 1H result met Morgans expectations thanks to higher margins and a stronger-than-expected balance sheet showing net cash of $100.7m.

Importantly, suggest the analysts, underlying earnings EBITDA increased by 1% to $19.4m and and profit increased by 2% to $9.2m.

While management expects FY25 underlying earnings will be ‘broadly in line’ with FY24, Morgans feels this aim could prove conservative should books continue to improve.

The Add rating is unchanged. The target rises to $1.05 from 95c. 

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.21
If WJL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WJL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Webjet Group with a Buy rating, highlighting the company’s consistent earnings (EBITDA) growth pre-pandemic, except for FY14 when the website was re-engineered.

The broker's industry analysis suggests the multi-trip (Trip Ninja) outbound offering is a high-quality solution but remains relatively under-recognised among B2C customers.

What differentiates Webjet Group, according to the broker, is its ability to mix and match airfares and present them in a user-friendly manner.

A $1.32 target is set.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.48
If WJL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources