Australian Broker Call
December 16, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 03:25 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| ORA - | ORORA | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -
The company has received notification of a strike at Loy Yang on December 28. As Loy Yang A is critical infrastructure, the Victorian government has launched an application to the Fair Work Commission for binding arbitration to end the threat.
Citi estimates that each day the facility is off line could cost AGL around $3m in EBIT. Despite the risks broker envisages upside risk to earning in FY17, noting that over the past five years the company's guidance has proved conservative.
The broker is also conservative in its forecasts until there is more certainty over wholesale electricity earnings in the peak summer months. Citi retains a Buy rating and $21.42 target.
Target price is $21.42 Current Price is $21.18 Difference: $0.24
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.64, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 115.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 132.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.7, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AHZ as Add (1) -
The company has signalled its turnaround is continuing and first-quarter sales were strong. Sales were up 50% on the prior quarter, underpinned by infusion products being delivered to the new Royal Adelaide Hospital and further growth from CardioCel.
Morgans makes a number of changes to forecasts for FY17, reducing sales estimates by 5% and increasing net loss forecasts by 9.6%.
The broker has taken a more conservative stance on the licensing prospects of the vaccine business. As a result, the target is reduced to $0.47 from $0.93. Add rating retained.
Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.135
If AHZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CTX as Buy (1) -
The company's 2016 profit guidance of $500-520m is slightly below Citi's forecast. Better transport fuel volumes and premium margins were more than offset by $35m in unfavourable externalities, including FX and pricing lags.
There is no update as yet on the Woolworths ((WOW)) fuel deal. Citi suspects the market is already pricing in the worst possible outcome of all 3.5bn litres of fuel being lost, which it considers is overdone.
Buy rating retained. Target rises to $36.36 from $34.82..
Target price is $36.36 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: $5.76
If CTX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 196.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 232.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CTX as Outperform (1) -
2016 results guidance is strong, Credit Suisse believes, whichever way you cut it. The broker is at a loss to explain the market reaction and can only assume it is comparing the non-underlying number to the underlying number.
The broker believes it could not reiterate an Outperform rating more firmly. Target of $40 retained.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: $9.4
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Hold (3) -
Caltex has guided to RCOP net profit in the range of $500-520m. Deutsche Bank reduces forecasts by 0.6% to factor in the lower-than-expected profit in the marketing business.
Marketing is expected to contribute EBIT of around $700m. The broker reduces the target to $33.40 from $33.90. Hold rating retained.
Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: $2.8
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 217.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CTX as Outperform (1) -
The company is guiding to 2016 replacement cost operating profit of $500-520m. Guidance reflects a strong performance from marketing and supply, Macquarie observes, marginally offset by higher corporate costs and negative externalities.
The Lytton refinery is on track for stronger sales volumes. Outperform. Target unchanged at $32.97.
Target price is $32.97 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: $2.37
If CTX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 106.50 cents and EPS of 198.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 120.80 cents and EPS of 231.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Equal-weight (3) -
2016 replacement cost operating profit is guided at $500-520m, in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker notes modest declines in marketing volumes, which matches recent industry trends that show declining diesel volumes across Australia in the last few months.
Thus far, the broker believes Caltex is doing a good job of managing margin in the supply and marketing business but this may become more difficult if volumes were to decline at a faster pace.
Equal-weight rating retained. In-Line industry view. Target is $32.60.
Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: $2
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 210.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate (4) -
Irony oh irony! Caltex's below consensus market guidance for the present financial year was actually above what Ord Minnett had penciled in. Yet, another in-depth review by the analysts has led to the conclusion the risk from Woolworths Petrol ((WOW)) volumes loss is not sufficiently discounted into the share price.
Hence why the stockbroker downgrades to Lighten from Accumulate while reducing the target price to $27.50 from $38.00. Estimates have been changed: CY16 up 3.5%; CY17 down 7.7%; and CY18 down 9.2%.
Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: minus $3.1 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 217.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CTX as Buy (1) -
Caltex' 2016 profit guidance of $500-520m is short of the broker's forecast, but the broker notes forex impacts and timing lags are notoriously difficult to forecast, and hence is not disappointed. Marketing & supply earnings growth of 9% is nevertheless impressive and indicates there is more growth left to come.
The broker retains Buy on share price weakness as the market awaits the outcome of the Woolworths' ((WOW)) fuel division sale. Were Caltex to miss out, the broker notes debt is low enough to suggest a buyback might be the alternative. Target falls to $34.25 from $34.50.
Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: $3.65
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CWN as Buy (1) -
The company has announced a number of initiatives to simplify the business.. Rather than a de-merger, Crown will reduce its stake in MPEL via a sale to Melco.
The company expects to realise $1.6bn from the sale, which will be split via $800m in debt reduction, $500m in a special dividend and $300m in a buy-back. Crown will no longer proceed with the Alon Las Vegas project.
Citi believes the company has achieved a significant lower cost alternative to the de-merger, with enhanced returns to shareholders. Target is lowered to $12.75 from $14.45. Buy rating maintained.
Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: $1.38
If CWN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of -53.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 61.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CWN as Outperform (1) -
The company is not proceeding with the Las Vegas project and is exploring the sale of its stake in MPEL. Credit Suisse observes the company will become an almost pure Australian casino play, with no debt in FY18.
The broker downgrades forecasts for earnings per share by 7-10%, eliminating MPEL associate income and incorporating lower casino revenues, partly offset by interest expense savings.The broker is not modelling any permanent damage to the company's VIP brand and expects recovery over time.
Credit Suisse retains a Outperform rating and $13 target.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: $1.63
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 50.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of -53.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 49.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -
Domino's has completed the transition of Joey's Pizza outlets in Germany into Domino's stores and integrated IT six months ahead of schedule. FY17 European same store sales growth of 5-7% has been reiterated and record new organic store growth is expected.
The broker anticipates a modest store rollout to begin with as Domino's settles into the German market, accelerating thereafter. The market is underpricing the growth opportunity in the broker's opinion, hence Buy and $79.70 target retained.
Target price is $79.70 Current Price is $63.53 Difference: $16.17
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $79.18, suggesting upside of 25.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 141.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.5, implying annual growth of 48.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.5, implying annual growth of 32.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a $330m securitisation, its third for motor-vehicle operating leases. Macquarie understands levels of credit support were in line with previous transactions.
The broker believes the transaction highlights the considerable funding flexibility available to the company compared with its peer group.
Outperform recommendation and $4.22 target retained.
Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.44
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 38.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -
Eclipx has issued its second debt security backed by motor vehicle leases, further diversifying its funding base. Guidance is for 18-21% profit growth in FY17. Beyond that the broker sees single digit growth to FY20.
This would provide for a compound annual rate of return of 11%, on a 4.5% yield, the broker calculates. Buy and $4.00 target retained.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.22
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 38.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates FLT as Hold (3) -
The competition law case that the ACCC has brought against Flight Centre has concluded with the court finding in the ACCC's favour.
Deutsche Bank reports the company will review the judgment but does not currently believe there are further implications for the business.
Hold and $33 target retained.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.30 Difference: $2.7
If FLT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.17, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse has confirmed via a site visit the grain intake upside and increases forecasts for the second time in a month. Intake forecasts are increased to 11.7mt from 10.5mt.
Earnings forecasts are raised 1% and 29% for FY17 and FY18 respectively. Outperform retained. Target is $9.58.
Target price is $9.58 Current Price is $9.12 Difference: $0.46
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.61, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.10 cents and EPS of 65.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.1, implying annual growth of 474.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.60 cents and EPS of 64.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
Reserve and resource increases have been announced for Tropicana. The increase in gold production means higher earnings in FY17-19 and this increases the valuation of the project by 44%.
Citi observes the next milestone is the finalisation of the strip mining strategy and retains a Neutral rating based on valuation. Target rises to $4.50 from $4.36.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.45
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 244.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IGO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
The company has announced a 58% increase in ore reserves at Tropicana. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.35.
Accelerated mining and grade streaming has re-commenced and this is expected to increase average head grade to 2.3g/t gold from 1.8g/t over the next three years, lifting average annual production rates to 450-500,000 ounces from the second half of 2017.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.45
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 48.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 244.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -
Reserves and resources for Tropicana are upgraded as part of the Long Island study. Ore reserves have increased by 58% while resources have increased 7%.
Macquarie already incorporated a reserve upgrade in estimates and has left its mining inventory assumption largely unchanged. The ramp up of Nova, is the next major catalyst.
Outperform retained. Target is raised to $5.10 from $5.00.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $1.05
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 244.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
Independence's Long Island study at Tropicana has been delayed, but the good news is Tropicana production has lifted short term. The broker sees the potential for a mine life out to 2025, and maybe another five years at lower grades.
The news de-risks Tropicana to some extent, the broker notes, allowing investors to focus on Nova potential. Independence is the broker's preferred nickel play but Neutral retained. Target falls to $4.19 from $4.40.
Target price is $4.19 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.14
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 244.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IOF as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett estimates net tangible assets per share will increase to around $4.60, if all assets are held at market, which would reflect a $225m re-valuation gain and a $30m realised gain from a recent asset sale.
The key asset is Sydney's 151 Clarence Street where the development profit should be around $100m, reflecting a yield on cost of 8% compared with a capitalisation rate of 5.5%.
Consequently, the broker views an acceptable offer from Cromwell ((CMW)) to privatise the company as being in the region of $4.70-5.00. At this price, Cromwell would pay a 5.8-6.1% cap rate and could use stamp duty efficiencies to offset the premium, but the broker continues to envisage this as unlikely.
Lighten rating retained. Target rises to $4.34 from $4.23.
Target price is $4.34 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of -67.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ORA as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi analysts suggest the market is not reading Orora accurately which has been given the label "acquisitive growth" and the recent acquisition of Register Print in the US is yet another example.
Bottom line: Citi thinks investors are underestimating how well the company is doing domestically. Estimates have gone up by 2% and 5% for FY17-FY18 and only half of the latter increase is due to the acquisition.
Target lifts to $3.15 from $2.95. Upgrade to Buy from Neutral.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.36
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
The company has announced the acquisition of Register Print, its second foray into the US point-of-purchase market. The business provides diversification away from more commoditised packaging distribution.
Credit Suisse expects the company's North American strategy to provide 3-4% growth in earnings per share annually. The company is also enjoying solid market conditions in Australasia and the broker notes recent increases in output prices appear to be sticking.
Neutral rating and $3.05 target retained.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.26
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 14.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 16.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORA as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank considers the acquisition of the Register Print group to be a minor positive for the company, estimating it will be around 1% accretive to earnings per share.
The acquisition will enhance the company's position in the point-of-purchase retail display market in North America. Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $2.80 from $2.75.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.01
If ORA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -
The company will acquire the Register Print group, a full-service provider of point-of-purchase retail display solutions. The company is paying US$44m and anticipates synergies of 4-5% of sales.
Macquarie lifts FY18 and FY19 earnings-per-share estimates by 2.3% and 2.5% respectively. Outperform retained. Target rises to $3.26 from $3.20.
Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.47
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley considers the acquisition of Register Print for $59m as a continuation of the company's growth strategy and its forecasts which include around $50m in acquisitions in FY17.
The broker expects the company to continue to find transactions at attractive multiples in a highly fragmented North American market and this could mean upside risk to forecasts.
Overweight rating retained. Target is $3.27. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $3.27 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.48
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -
The company has purchased the Register Print group in the US for US$44m. The deal is in line with the company's strategy of increasing its presence in the point-of-purchase retail display space.
Despite integrating the acquisition into forecasts, the broker's FY17 estimates fall marginally because of an increase in AUD/USD assumptions.
Morgans maintains a Add rating and lowers its target to $3.08 from $3.25.
Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.29
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ORA as Accumulate (2) -
The company has acquired the Register Print business, a full service provider of point-of-sale retail display solutions, for US$44m. Ord Minnett estimates the acquisition will be 1-3% accretive to earnings per share in FY17-19.
The transaction is in line with management's acquisition strategy and provides the next leg up in growth in the US point-of-purchase segment. Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $3.15 from $3.10.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.36
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -
The company provided little in the way of new commentary at the AGM given the proximity to recent results. FY17 will focus on an aggressive cost reduction program, to offset $120m in ammonium nitrate price/input costs.
Macquarie believes coal price developments are the key to sentiment towards the stock and notes thermal coal prices have started to weaken of late.
Target is $17.12. Neutral retained.
Target price is $17.12 Current Price is $16.87 Difference: $0.25
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.15, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 49.80 cents and EPS of 99.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.6, implying annual growth of -2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.30 cents and EPS of 104.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -
The company has downgraded its first half production guidance to 70-80,000 ounces from 85-100,000 ounces and raised its cost guidance to US$1550-1650/oz. The Sissingue resource is also reduced by 20%.
The broker is disappointed with the downgrade of the resource, as it was expecting an upgrade, and this undermines confidence in the previously-assumed accuracy of the independent consultant's estimates. A further downgrade at Edikan, attributed to negative reconciliation, adds to the disappointment.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating as the stock is trading at a material discount to peers. The broker believes operating stability and diversification to a second mine are needed for that discount to close, which appears to be more elusive after this latest announcement. Target is steady at 85c.
Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.32
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.75, suggesting upside of 109.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -
Speculation that cheap airfares from Chinese carriers is hurting Qantas is overstating the risk, in Ord Minnett's opinion. If anything, the broker considers the likelihood of increased inbound tourists from China a positive for the domestic airline.
The broker continues to envisage further significant upside to the share price. Buy retained. Target is $4.50.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $1.14
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.4, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.6, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -
The NSW Planning Assessment Commission has approved the stage one development of the Moorebank Intermodal terminal, an important milestone which should enable the company to reach financial close and begin signing up tenants.
Ord Minnett continues to envisage further upside, with the target of $2.85 implying upside of 18%, which is largely associated with Moorebank. Buy retained.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.44
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates STO as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse notes latest $1.5bn equity raising will take the total raised by the company to $7.5bn since 2009. The broker does not criticise the company for raising the equity at this point in time but the question is, other than preserving the credit rating, what has changed?
Production over the past eight years, despite the raising of equity, has been flat and reserves are down around 7%. The lack of an explanation on GLNG capital expenditure does not provide Credit Suisse with confidence that anything has actually changed operationally.
Underperform retained. Target is raised to $3.30 from $3.10.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 325.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 1575.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates STO as Hold (3) -
The company has announced a $1.5bn capital raising, consisting of a $1bn institutional placement and $500m retail share purchase plan. The issue price has been set at $4.06.
Morgans is not surprised by the equity raising, although notes it comes despite management comments that cash flow was positive and capital expenditure requirements were low.
The broker finds the slim discount uninviting, although notes it helps to minimise the dilution in valuation. Hold rating retained. Target falls to $4.56 from $4.68.
Target price is $4.56 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.62
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 325.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 1575.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates STO as Hold (3) -
The company has moved to address its debt levels with a $1.5bn equity raising. Ord Minnett observes this is a positive in terms of improving some key quantitative metrics, but the announcement is inconsistent with commentary provided at the investor briefing the week before.
The broker suspects a sudden change of plan, which is either purely opportunistic or suggests profitability improvements at Cooper Basin and GLNG are more challenging than what has been outlined.
Until the broker has better visibility, a Hold rating and $4.00 target are retained.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.06
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 325.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 1575.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates TPM as Buy (1) -
TPG Telecom has won Singapore’s new entrant spectrum auction and will build the country’s 4th mobile network. Citi analysts are anticipating an aggressive approach to pricing, with a likely SIM-only offering and a lowest possible cost approach.
Citi analysts point out the company should see free cash flow (FCF) rise rapidly from FY18. Buy rating retained. Price target reduced to $9.50 from $10.20. Citi is projecting a regression in dividend payouts for the years ahead.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $2.47
If TPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 45.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TPM as Buy (1) -
The company is the winning bidder in Singapore's new mobile spectrum auction. Deutsche Bank has been sceptical of the returns the company could derive from a Singapore investment.
The broker is pleasantly surprised to find the investment could generate a positive net present value of $356m, on forecast assumptions. Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $11.20 from $11.01.
Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $4.17
If TPM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TPM as Overweight (1) -
The company has been successful in winning the spectrum bid, creating a pathway to being the fourth mobile provider in Singapore. The rights are expected to start in April. TPG is given until October 2018 for national 4G coverage.
The company expects capital expenditure in the range of SGD200m to SGD300m. The project is to be funded from existing debt and cash generated from Australian operations.
While any move into international markets, which are already developed and competitive, brings higher risk, Morgan Stanley highlights the company's strong operational track record. The broker considers the higher risk/return on this investment acceptable.
Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line and target is $10.75.
Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $3.72
If TPM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $21.18 |
| AHZ - | ADMEDUS | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.34 |
| CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $30.60 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $30.60 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $30.60 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $30.60 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $30.60 | ||
| Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $30.60 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $30.60 | ||
| CWN - | CROWN RESORTS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.37 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.37 | ||
| DMP - | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $63.53 |
| ECX - | ECLIPX GROUP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.78 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.78 | ||
| FLT - | FLIGHT CENTRE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $30.30 |
| GNC - | GRAINCORP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.12 |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.05 |
| Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.05 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.05 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.05 | ||
| IOF - | INVESTA OFFICE | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.50 |
| ORA - | ORORA | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.79 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.79 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.79 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.79 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.79 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.79 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.79 | ||
| ORI - | ORICA | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $16.87 |
| PRU - | PERSEUS MINING | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.53 |
| QAN - | QANTAS AIRWAYS | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.36 |
| QUB - | QUBE HOLDINGS | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.41 |
| STO - | SANTOS | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.94 |
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.94 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.94 | ||
| TPM - | TPG TELECOM | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.03 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.03 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.03 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 24 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 10 |
| 4. Reduce | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 1 |
Friday 16 December 2016
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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