Australian Broker Call

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September 08, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - Beach Energy Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
FMG - Fortescue Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
MFG - Magellan Financial Group Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
NCM - Newcrest Mining Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
NUF - Nufarm Upgrade to Add from Reduce Morgans
RRL - Regis Resources Upgrade to Hold from Sell Ord Minnett
SAR - Saracen Mineral Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

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Overnight Price: $18.13

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reports ANZ Bank's ESG briefing covered a number of themes with the bank providing insights into a number of social and environmental factors.

The bank is working towards a conciliatory approach to working with customers in financial difficulty, notes the broker, but expects a rise in foreclosures and business failures in 2021.

On climate change initiatives, ANZ stated it will consider terminating a customer relationship, albeit as a last resort, if the customer did not take adequate steps to plan on minimising its carbon impact.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating with a target price of $19.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: $1.37
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.35, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 132.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.1, implying annual growth of -36.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 137.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB  AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $3.29

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Lighten (4) -

The US Department of Defense's contract for studies of a Large Unmanned Surface Vessel has been split evenly across six firms which includes Austal.

Ord Minnett is pleased with the development although highlights with five other firms the process will be competitive. The broker remains cautious on the outlook for the company’s earnings profile in the medium term due to operational risks with the business transitioning to a steel shipbuilding business in the US.

The broker maintains its Lighten recommendation with a $3 target price.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of -4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of 0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $84.38

Morgans rates ASX as Reduce (5) -

Morgans views the ASX's August activity statistics as on the weak side. 

While average daily equity value traded was up 7% on the previous corresponding period, August cash equity volumes and average daily futures contract volumes were well down, notes the broker.

Morgans lowers FY21 and FY22 EPS estimates by -3%-4% on reduced volume forecasts for both the equities and the futures businesses.

The Reduce rating is unchanged and the price target is decreased to $74.82 from $77.08.

Target price is $74.82 Current Price is $84.38 Difference: minus $9.56 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $72.20, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2227.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 26.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.0, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 559.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 233.00 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.2, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 233.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ATL  APOLLO TOURISM & LEISURE LTD

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $0.28

Ord Minnett rates ATL as Hold (3) -

Apollo Tourism & Leisure's final result with a net loss of -$21.7m shows a business in survival mode due to covid-19 given its reliance on international visitors, comments Ord Minnett.

The company responded to the pandemic by dramatically reducing the size of its rental fleet so as to reduce its debt. The broker believes the company did what had to be done and does not consider the risk to be insurmountable if managed correctly.

Earnings forecasts have been downgraded materially for FY21-FY23.

Ord Minnett retains its Hold rating and believes the company has a more than reasonable chance of survival. Target is reduced to $0.25 from $0.26.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ATL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.84.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of -0.30 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is - 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $37.06

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects 2021 iron ore price to increase to US$105/t from US$100/t due to higher China steel production estimates. The broker notes BHP Group offers compelling valuation metrics and an estimated dividend yield of 5.6% for FY21.

Consensus earnings upgrades may be in the offing, the broker adds. Earnings forecasts increased by 4% for FY21. 

Target maintained at $44. Accumulate rating retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $37.06 Difference: $6.94
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.92, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 223.24 cents and EPS of 329.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 202.54 cents and EPS of 276.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.9, implying annual growth of -2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 180.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.42

Macquarie rates BPT as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

With Beach Energy's share price down -15% since May, Macquarie notes the company has underperformed the energy sector on account of its reduced five-year free cash flow guidance.

The broker considers the Waitsia-North West Shelf contract win a positive surprise. Earnings forecasts for FY21-23 have been increased due to higher expected oil production and gas contract prices.

Macquarie has upgraded its rating to Outperform from Neutral with a target price of $1.70. 

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.28
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -31.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 15.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $12.98

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reiterates its positive investment thesis on BlueScope Steel due to revisions to steel price expectations. The broker also highlights improving industry dynamics with demand in the US and China recovering strongly.

Earnings forecasts have been upgraded for FY21-23. Target price lifts to $16.20 from $13.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $3.22
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 66.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.4, implying annual growth of 160.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 133.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.8, implying annual growth of 89.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP  CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $18.92

Macquarie rates CCP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers debt pricing in the US to be a key factor in Credit Corp Group's performance. The broker notes improvement in pricing in the second quarter versus the first quarter, with PRA pricing up by circa 13% and Encore improving by about 17%

The broker highlights pricing data for the third-quarter will be important for the company's US business outlook.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating. Target is unchanged at $20.70.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $18.92 Difference: $1.78
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.65, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.0, implying annual growth of 296.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 134.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.8, implying annual growth of 18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $282.13

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

CSL and the Australian government have signed a heads of agreement to supply doses of the University of Queensland's coronavirus vaccine, scheduled for distribution in mid 2021.

CSL and AstraZeneca have also signed an agreement for manufacture and distribution of AstraZeneca's vaccine, scheduled for shipping early in 2021.

As the latter relationship is akin to a distribution arrangement, Morgan Stanley suspects the financial benefit for CSL is likely to be smaller than that from the University of Queensland.

Equal-weight rating with a target price of $282. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $282.00 Current Price is $282.13 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $309.68, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 702.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 674.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 773.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 758.5, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 338.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG  DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $3.62

Morgans rates DHG as Hold (3) -

Morgans reduces first half FY21 volume forecasts for Domain Holdings due to the extension of the Victorian lockdowns.

With in-person auctions prohibited until October 26 at the earliest, the broker believes the Melbourne market’s spring selling season will be severely impacted. Additionally, there is some slight weakness in national listings (ex Victoria).

However, the analyst expects the impact to some degree is the relative strength of the Sydney market in the past two months. 

Morgans also assumes a large portion of 'lost' listings in Melbourne in the first half will come through in the second half, once Melbourne hopefully returns to covid normal.

The broker sees a strong rebound in the second half of FY21 and in FY22.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $3.32 from $3.37.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.10 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 72.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 74.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $17.88

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett expects 2021 iron ore price to increase to US$105/t from US$100/t due to higher China steel production estimates. This compels the broker to upgrade Fortescue Metals Group's rating to Buy from Hold with the target price increased to $20 from $18.80.

Iron ore price estimates for the group have been increased to US$51/t from US$48/t. The group offers a dividend yield of 9% over the next three years, according to the broker. 

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.88 Difference: $2.12
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.76, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 326.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 225.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.9, implying annual growth of -32.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG  MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $58.49

Credit Suisse rates MFG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Since the FY20 result Magellan Financial has dropped around -10%. Yet the infrastructure franchise has built a core offering which accounts for around half of its assets under management and Credit Suisse believes there is scope for a similar market in global equities.

The broker upgrades estimates by 1-2% to account for higher net flows and believes the company's products offer attractive characteristics that appeal to institutional investors and flows should remain robust.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $65 from $60.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $58.49 Difference: $6.51
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.12, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 223.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.5, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 259.00 cents and EPS of 289.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $28.47

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett expects 2021 iron ore price to increase to US$105/t from US$100/t due to higher China steel production estimates. The broker is of the opinion iron ore prices will remain buoyant over the medium term.

Ord Minnett retains its Lighten rating for Mineral Resources. The target price rises to $22.20 from $21.60.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $22.20 Current Price is $28.47 Difference: minus $6.27 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.57, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 352.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.7, implying annual growth of -40.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 321.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.3, implying annual growth of -29.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $31.25

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and maintains a US$2,000/oz gold price forecast for the December half.

However, a strengthening Australian dollar has been playing spoilsport, adds the broker, eroding margins and leading to near-term downgrades in earnings forecasts.

The broker has upgraded its rating for Newcrest Mining to Accumulate from Hold with the target price increasing to $35 from $34.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.25 Difference: $3.75
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.96, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.35 cents and EPS of 221.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 171.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 41.40 cents and EPS of 208.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.1, implying annual growth of -8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $3.85

Morgans rates NUF as Upgrade to Add from Reduce (1) -

Nufarm reports its FY20 result on September 23. The company has recently provided preliminary underlying earnings guidance of $290m-$300m for FY20, slightly below Morgans estimates.

However, the broker expects FY20 earnings to be the low point given improved seasonal conditions in Australia. Additionally, the company said FY20 will be the trough for the European business.

Given material share price weakness and a more attractive valuation, Morgans upgrades the rating to Add from Reduce and the target price is increased to $4.85 from $4.76.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $1
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 96.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $3.14

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

The energy sector has had a tough reporting season with circa -$6.3bn in impairments, reports Macquarie and expects the third quarter to be even weaker due to rangebound LNG and oil prices.

The broker reports the market has reacted favourably to Oil Search's decision to downsize the Alaska Nanushuk oil development to phased self-funding. The next catalyst is Strategy Day in November.

The Outperform rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $3.75 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.61
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 133.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.88 cents and EPS of 16.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 400.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPH  PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $7.33

UBS rates PPH as Neutral (3) -

Aversion to using cash (due to covid-19) has led to an increase in the use of digital payment methods in the US, observes UBS, with some churches seeing penetration increase to as high as circa 85%.

The broker believes this will drive back book growth along with delaying front book growth with a longer sell cycle.

UBS expects Pushpay Holdings to see an increase in digital giving coupled with long term penetration and has increased its forecasts for FY21-23.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with the target rising to NZ$8 from NZ$5.75.

Current Price is $7.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -37.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.87 cents and EPS of 23.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSQ  PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $1.90

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

The company has provided its first monthly comparable update. Morgan Stanley considers the commitment a positive development, given it implies more transparency and confidence.

Comparable growth decelerated only slightly, ex Victoria. Including Victoria comparable growth slowed to 8.7% versus 10.6%, which in the broker's view shows how resilient the group is despite 27 of its 94 centres being in that state.

The broker also envisages longer-term benefits from faster corporatisation as the more capital-constrained operators in the industry endure tough conditions.

Target is $2.25. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.35
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.94.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $112.81

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Morgans reduces first half FY21 volume forecasts for REA Group due to the extension of the Victorian lockdowns.

With in-person auctions prohibited until October 26 at the earliest, the broker believes the Melbourne market’s spring selling season will be severely impacted. Additionally, there is some slight weakness in national listings (ex Victoria).

However, the analyst expects the majority of deferred listings will be captured in the second half and the impact on FY21 will be more muted. Any prolonged period of share price weakness from reduced first half earnings expectations is considered a buying opportunity.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $101.8 from $104.8

Target price is $101.80 Current Price is $112.81 Difference: minus $11.01 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $106.13, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 214.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.8, implying annual growth of 171.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 296.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 308.3, implying annual growth of 33.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC  RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $64.74

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Ramsay Health Care has had multiple non-core cost items every year in its income statement averaging -$37m post-tax since FY11-20. The broker estimates this implies a circa -8% downgrade to consensus FY21 earnings forecast.

Going forward, additional covid-19 costs are expected to lead to higher use of plant/equipment, more hygiene measures and staff screening costs. UBS expects these costs to remain over the short to medium term, estimating a -2.5% decline in the operating income in FY21.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $71.20.

Target price is $71.20 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $6.46
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.67, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.1, implying annual growth of 49.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 264.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.5, implying annual growth of 37.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $97.94

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects 2021 iron ore price to increase to US$105/t from US$100/t due to higher China steel production estimates. The broker notes Rio Tinto offers compelling valuation metrics and an estimated dividend yield of 8% for FY21. 

Consensus earnings upgrades may be in the offing, the broker adds. Earnings forecasts increased by 3% for 2021. 

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating with the target price increasing to $121 from $120.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $121.00 Current Price is $97.94 Difference: $23.06
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.17, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 674.16 cents and EPS of 1070.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 874.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 525.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 737.73 cents and EPS of 1141.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 840.4, implying annual growth of -3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 550.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.20

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and maintains a US$2,000/oz gold price forecast for the December half.

However, a strengthening Australian dollar has been playing spoilsport, adds the broker, eroding margins and leading to near-term downgrades in earnings forecasts. 

Regis Resources' rating has been upgraded to Hold from Sell with a target price of $4.80.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.5, implying annual growth of 46.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SAR  SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.08

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates SAR as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and maintains a US$2,000/oz gold price forecast for the December half.

However, a strengthening Australian dollar has been playing spoilsport, adds the broker, eroding margins and leading to near-term downgrades in earnings forecasts. 

FY21 production guidance for Saracen Mineral Holdings has been downgraded led by the Super Pit JV. Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Hold from Lighten with a target price of $4.70.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If SAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.27

Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -

The energy sector has had a tough reporting season with circa -$6.3bn in impairments, reports Macquarie and expects the third quarter to be even weaker due to rangebound LNG and oil prices.

With limited upside expected in the oil market, Macquarie thinks Santos will trade-off production growth for balance sheet risk. The broker believes contingency planning will be important going ahead.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $6 from $5.80.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.73
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.94 cents and EPS of 36.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.35 cents and EPS of 42.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 56.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $13.74

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

A four-step roadmap to easing virus restrictions in Victoria appears conservative to Macquarie with a lot of restrictions remaining after the original lockdown end-date of September 13.

The broker notes the plan does not suggest any material recovery in traffic with step two of restriction easing only allowing 100,000 workers to return to work, a puny 3% of the workforce. Commuter traffic is expected to be lower for longer.

This leads the broker to reduce Transurban's CityLink's traffic estimates in the second quarter of FY21 by a further -10%, with October forecast down -60-65%. CityLink's FY21 operating income estimate is cut by -11% with the dividend forecast reduced by -2cps.

Macquarie expects a rebound post virus with long term growth opportunities.

Outperform retained with the target price increasing slightly to $14.45 from $14.44. 

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $0.71
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.28, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 43.80 cents and EPS of 44.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 104.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.50 cents and EPS of 60.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 97.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VEA  VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.60

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

Viva Energy Group's trading update on its Victorian business shows volumes in its Alliance retail business to be above 50 million litres a week with its commercial operations remaining resilient.

The Geelong refinery is operating at reduced levels, reports the broker, but faces a very challenging long term outlook. Ord Minnett notes Viva Energy has more exposure to Victoria than Ampol ((ALD)). There is also downside risk to Coles Express Alliance fuel volumes and operating earnings.

The broker admits a full shutdown of the Geelong refinery is an option due to the fall in global demand for oil products.

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate recommendation with the target price rising to $2.20 from $1.60.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.6
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 160.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -87.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 224.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 957.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $18.87

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

The energy sector has had a tough reporting season with circa -$6.3bn in impairments, reports Macquarie and expects the third quarter to be even weaker due to rangebound LNG prices.

Macquarie believes Woodside Petroleum's M&A activities in 2020 till the first half of 2021 will capture value on existing assets and in the case of North West Shelf, position it for delivery on the Scarborough project.

The Outperform rating is maintained. The target price is reduced to $24.40 from $24.70.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $18.87 Difference: $5.53
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.63, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.31 cents and EPS of 88.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.05 cents and EPS of 112.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AQG Alacer Gold $9.02 Ord Minnett 11.60 12.00 -3.33%
ASX ASX Ltd $83.89 Morgans 74.82 77.08 -2.93%
ATL Apollo Tourism & Leisure $0.27 Ord Minnett 0.25 0.26 -3.85%
BHP BHP $37.36 Ord Minnett 44.00 43.00 2.33%
BPT Beach Energy $1.47 Macquarie 1.70 1.75 -2.86%
BSL Bluescope Steel $13.38 Macquarie 16.20 13.50 20.00%
DHG Domain Holdings $3.66 Morgans 3.32 3.37 -1.48%
FMG Fortescue $18.50 Ord Minnett 20.00 18.80 6.38%
MFG Magellan Financial Group $59.08 Credit Suisse 65.00 60.00 8.33%
MIN Mineral Resources $27.71 Ord Minnett 22.20 21.60 2.78%
NCM Newcrest Mining $31.40 Ord Minnett 35.00 34.00 2.94%
NUF Nufarm $4.10 Morgans 4.85 4.76 1.89%
OGC Oceanagold $2.91 Ord Minnett 4.40 4.20 4.76%
OSH Oil Search $3.21 Macquarie 3.75 3.80 -1.32%
PSQ Pacific Smiles Group $1.85 Morgan Stanley 2.25 2.00 12.50%
REA REA Group $112.91 Morgans 101.80 104.80 -2.86%
RIO Rio Tinto $99.31 Ord Minnett 121.00 120.00 0.83%
STO Santos $5.35 Macquarie 6.00 5.80 3.45%
TCL Transurban Group $13.97 Macquarie 14.45 14.66 -1.43%
WPL Woodside Petroleum $19.12 Macquarie 24.40 24.70 -1.21%
Summaries
ANZ ANZ Banking Group Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $18.13
ASB Austal Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.29
ASX ASX Ltd Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $84.38
ATL Apollo Tourism & Leisure Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.28
BHP BHP Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $37.06
BPT Beach Energy Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.42
BSL Bluescope Steel Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.98
CCP Credit Corp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.92
CSL CSL Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $282.13
DHG Domain Holdings Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.62
FMG Fortescue Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $17.88
MFG Magellan Financial Group Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $58.49
MIN Mineral Resources Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.47
NCM Newcrest Mining Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $31.25
NUF Nufarm Upgrade to Add from Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $3.85
OSH Oil Search Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.14
PPH Pushpay Holdings Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.33
PSQ Pacific Smiles Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.90
REA REA Group Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $112.81
RHC Ramsay Health Care Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $64.74
RIO Rio Tinto Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $97.94
RRL Regis Resources Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.20
SAR Saracen Mineral Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.08
STO Santos Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.27
TCL Transurban Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.74
VEA Viva Energy Group Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.60
WPL Woodside Petroleum Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.87
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

2. Accumulate

4

3. Hold

10

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

1

Tuesday 08 September 2020

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