Australian Broker Call
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April 15, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
DXS - | DEXUS PROPERTY | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
PDL - | PENDAL GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $4.64
Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -
Big data analysis to assess weather impacts suggests the earnings risks are largest for Aurizon’s Bulk business, but, point out the analysts, this part only contributes circa 1% of Group EBIT in FY19 based on Citi's current forecasts.
All in all, whilst the storms and flooding in Northern and Central Queensland were severe, the analysts now anticipate their impact on Aurizon’s earnings will be less than in FY17. The company is scheduled to release a market update on April 17th.
Citi analysts expect coal volumes to come in at the lower-end of management’s FY19 guidance range. Neutral rating and $4.40 price target left untouched.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of -18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.79
Deutsche Bank rates BOQ as Hold (3) -
The outlook provided at the first half results has disappointed Deutsche Bank. It points to a challenging environment as the core retail business continues to struggle. Subdued expectations are also confirmed by the reduction in the interim dividend.
Still, the broker considers Bank of Queensland in a reasonable capital position with undemanding valuation multiples. Hold rating maintained. Target is $9.00.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.79 Difference: $0.21
If BOQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.73, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.1, implying annual growth of -16.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of -2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $167.48
Deutsche Bank rates COH as Sell (5) -
Deutsche Bank analysts, already among the more bearish when it comes to assessing the outlook for Cochlear, have returned from the 2019 American Audiology Annual meeting with the message that, yes indeed, competition is heating up in the global market for hearing aids.
At this point in time, the analysts assert competitive dynamics seem to be benefiting Sonova and, to a lesser extent, Demant, but not Cochlear which is expected to have a number of tough quarters ahead.
Earnings estimates have been cut by up to -7%. The analysts are worried about multiple contraction now that momentum is to the downside. Sell rating retained. Price target drops to $148 from $157.
Target price is $148.00 Current Price is $167.48 Difference: minus $19.48 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $166.61, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 464.6, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 323.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 508.4, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 356.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $195.38
Credit Suisse rates CSL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse observes the first half result was affected by soft albumin and haemophilia product sales. The broker suspects, with no near-term product launches and potentially softer growth in key specialties, there are questions about the company's ability to generate sustainable margins.
The need to grow plasma volumes in line with immunoglobulin demand will limit the degree of margin upside, in the broker's view. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $192 from $200.
Target price is $192.00 Current Price is $195.38 Difference: minus $3.38 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $203.58, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 257.08 cents and EPS of 571.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 590.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 267.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 292.82 cents and EPS of 637.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 657.1, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 299.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $27.38
Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Hold (3) -
Regional refining margins have improved materially, Deutsche Bank observes, driven by a recovery in gasoline crack spreads that should benefit Australian refineries because of the significance of gasoline in production.
Deutsche Bank still considers Caltex may face margin and market share pressures and maintains a Hold rating and $26 target.
Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $27.38 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of -9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.3, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -
The March 2019 refining margin of US$8.67 per barrel was up on January and February, although well below the same period in 2018. Caltex has reaffirmed its 2019 production guidance of 5.8bn litres.
Ord Minnett increases 2019 estimates for earnings per share by 4%. Hold rating and $27.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $27.38 Difference: $0.12
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of -9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.3, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.82
Ord Minnett rates DXS as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
The company is undertaking due diligence to acquire 80 Collins Street Melbourne, a major mixed-use development project. Ord Minnett believes this represents an opportunity for the company to materially re-rate its portfolio to Melbourne, where it is currently under-represented.
Dexus has indicated the potential for capital partners to be involved but the broker assesses it could still acquire 100% on balance sheet. Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten and raises the target to $13.00 from $10.80.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $0.18
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.75, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.30 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of -65.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GBT GBST HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.56
UBS rates GBT as Neutral (3) -
GBST has received a take-over approach by major competitor Bravura Solutions ((BVS)) and UBS suggests contract sensitivies might prove the key hurdle during due diligence. The broker is also contemplating whether other suitors might arise.
Price target now set at $2.50, in line with Bravura's offer. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GBT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 44.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $1.82
Citi rates GXY as Buy (1) -
The good news is Citi analysts now anticipate a faster adoption rate for electric vehicles and related batteries. The bad news is the previously elevated prices for lithium have triggered an overwhelming response and the market is facing oversupply/surplus on a medium term outlook.
Supply growth should moderate from 2022 onwards, predict the analysts. Nevertheless, Citi has now incorporated a lower-for-longer scenario in its modeling, reducing earlier price forecasts by up to -23%. Longer term, the price of lithium is projected to stabilise around US$7,500k/t.
Earnings estimates have been scaled back as a result, but Citi analysts also believe share prices in Australia have been sold down too far. Buy/High Risk rating remains thus in place. Price target drops to $3.20 from $3.80.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $1.38
If GXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 46.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 101.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 127.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.64
Morgans rates MHJ as Add (1) -
The company has reported weaker sales in the March quarter. Morgans acknowledges the top-line performance is subdued but positive comparables are encouraging.
The broker expects the company will deliver net profit growth of 14.8% and 10.1% over FY20 and FY21, largely from internal cost reductions. Add rating maintained. Target is $0.78.
Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.14
If MHJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.75, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of 404.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 21.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.39
Morgan Stanley rates NEW as Equal-weight (3) -
The company's investment manager will list US Solar Fund on the London Stock Exchange. The fund will interact with New Energy Solar via an option to co-invest 50:50 in US solar assets.
New Energy Solar is investing US$15m in the fund to underpin the alignment. While adding some complexity, Morgan Stanley believes fee reductions and additional investment opportunities are a positive outcome of the arrangement.
Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Cautious. Target is $1.51.
Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.12
If NEW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.45
Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -
The good news is Citi analysts now anticipate a faster adoption rate for electric vehicles and related batteries. The bad news is the previously elevated prices for lithium have triggered an overwhelming response and the market is facing oversupply/surplus on a medium term outlook.
Supply growth should moderate from 2022 onwards, predict the analysts. Nevertheless, Citi has now incorporated a lower-for-longer scenario in its modeling, reducing earlier price forecasts by up to -23%. Longer term, the price of lithium is projected to stabilise around US$7,500k/t.
Earnings estimates have been scaled back as a result, but Citi analysts also believe share prices in Australia have been sold down too far. Buy/High Risk rating remains thus in place. Price target drops to $4.50 from $4.90.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $1.05
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 1466.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.59
Citi rates OZL as Buy (1) -
The quarterly update disappointed on costs at recently acquired Antas and Citi analysts have responded by reducing forecasts. They do keep the Buy rating unchanged as the Carrapateena project remains on schedule.
Otherwise, Citi analysts saw what they believe was a "steady" performance for the March quarter. The analysts see valuation support emerging for the shares. The target price loses -50c to $12.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $1.41
If OZL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 47.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates OZL as Underperform (5) -
The company has made a solid start to 2019 production at Prominent Hill, Credit Suisse observes. Production was weak at Antas and no guidance has been provided, pending an updated resource and mine plan.
Carrapateena is on track for December commissioning. Underperform rating and $9.50 target maintained.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 67.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 49.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -
First quarter copper production was in line with expectations and boosted by higher gold production and lower cash costs.
Macquarie continues to be disappointed with the output at Antas and makes material cuts to its forecasts for the mine ahead of the updated guidance, due in the second quarter. Carrapateena remains on track for commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2019.
The broker maintains an Outperform rating. Target is $12.30.
Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $1.71
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 64.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 99.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -
Production was in line with guidance in the March quarter. Morgan Stanley finds the Nebo-Babel resource update a positive but awaits more information in the current quarter.
The broker considers Oz Minerals a quality company with growth potential, albeit fairly priced.
Equal-Weight rating and $11.10 target maintained. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $0.51
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 78.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates OZL as Hold (3) -
Prominent Hill production was broadly in line with forecasts. Ord Minnett notes the Antas mine remains very weak with lower grades and associated high unit costs.
A revised resource for the West Musgrave showed lower tonnage, and the company will update the market on the Brazilian projects in the second quarter.
Ord Minnett remains attracted to the exposure to long-term copper markets and the growth potential. The broker looks for a pullback in the share price to turn more positive and retains a Hold rating and $11 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $0.41
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates OZL as Buy (1) -
Post the March quarter production update, OZ Minerals remains UBS's most preferred base metals exposure in Australia.
While the numbers looked disappointing for the small operation at Antas, the broker finds otherwise the performance looks okay and Carrapateena remains on schedule for commissioning in Q4.
Price target remains $12. Buy.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $1.41
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PDL PENDAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $8.49
Citi rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts found the quarterly update rather "soft" with funds outflows accelerating from higher margin JO Hambro funds on top of the observation that FY19 performance fees are likely to be "minimal".
The analysts do expect earnings to pick up in FY20. Neutral rating retained. Price target improves on the back of marking to market; now at $9.50 compared with $8.20 previously.
One noteworthy observation is that performance fees for the Australian funds is expected to hit their lowest level in eight years this year, in line with expectations thus far. Things can only get better from here onwards, or can they? (Citi seems to think so).
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $1.01
If PDL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 54.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.40 cents and EPS of 59.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PDL as Underperform (5) -
March quarter funds under management and flows were below Credit Suisse expectations. The composition was the key disappointment, with significantly deeper-than-expected outflows at JO Hambro.
Credit Suisse downgrades estimates for earnings per share by -7-8% across FY19-21. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.80 from $8.00.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PDL as Hold (3) -
March quarter funds under management were up 8.7%. JO Hambro experienced outflows of -$1.2bn which has accelerated from the prior quarter.
Morgans considers the valuation reasonable but envisages some risk of accelerated outflows, and would prefer that the growth was less reliant on market direction. Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $9.39 from $9.35.
Target price is $9.39 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $0.9
If PDL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS has downgraded Pendal Group to Sell from Neutral on the observation that the previous engine of growth -JO Hambro in the UK- is increasingly looking challenged, which then puts into question the outlook for funds flows and performance fees for the group as a whole.
March 2019 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of net outflows for JOHCM, point out the analysts. UBS has reduced EPS forecasts by -4%-5% and now finds itself some -10% below market consensus. The analysts nevertheless maintain the bias remains to the downside.
Price target drops to $8.70 from $9.05. DPS forecasts have been cut too.
Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $0.21
If PDL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $0.71
Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -
The good news is Citi analysts now anticipate a faster adoption rate for electric vehicles and related batteries. The bad news is the previously elevated prices for lithium have triggered an overwhelming response and the market is facing oversupply/surplus on a medium term outlook.
Supply growth should moderate from 2022 onwards, predict the analysts. Nevertheless, Citi has now incorporated a lower-for-longer scenario in its modeling, reducing earlier price forecasts by up to -23%. Longer term, the price of lithium is projected to stabilise around US$7,500k/t.
Earnings estimates have been scaled back as a result, but Citi analysts also believe share prices in Australia have been sold down too far. Buy/High Risk rating remains thus in place. Price target drops to $0.90 from $1.05.
Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.19
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPT PERPETUAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $41.14
Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts suggest Perpetual should declare itself lucky that global equity markets have performed so well in the March quarter, otherwise things might have looked quite ugly is the underlying suggestion. Citi analysts have made minor adjustments to their estimates following the March quarter funds update.
Citi analysts find it difficult to muster any enthusiasm due to the lack of clarity on what the (new) strategy will look like. In their view, investors should ascribe a higher risk to the shares, not the opposite as has seemingly occurred.
Neutral rating retained, while the share price target lifts to $41. Perpetual still suffered its largest net funds outflows in at least seven years, but as said, Citi analysts think it could have been a lot worse. Plus one major mandate that was lost would have been responsible for most of the decline.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $41.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.37, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 250.00 cents and EPS of 259.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 250.00 cents and EPS of 267.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 245.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
The company reported a -1% decline in funds under management in the March quarter. Credit Suisse was disappointed with the update.
Still, the broker believes the elevated valuation can persist for the short term and acknowledges there are potential positive catalysts on the horizon.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $39 from $36.
Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $41.14 Difference: minus $2.14 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.37, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 240.00 cents and EPS of 254.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 250.00 cents and EPS of 272.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 245.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley assesses the March quarter funds under management of $27.4bn imply -3-4% risk to the downside for FY20 earnings. This strengthens the case for new growth opportunities and the new CEO's strategy to refresh distribution.
The broker notes, in this regard, Perpetual is raising up to $440m for a credit income trust, so the process of diversifying beyond Australian equities is underway.
Equal-weight rating. Target is $38. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $41.14 Difference: minus $3.14 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.37, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 247.00 cents and EPS of 263.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 260.00 cents and EPS of 288.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 245.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PPT as Hold (3) -
March quarter funds under management showed negative net flows, primarily in Australian equities in the institutional channel. This was driven by a large mandate loss.
Ord Minnett believes the focus of investors in the short-term is likely to remain on the new management's plan to grow the business via acquisition.
The broker finds it difficult to assess the potential success of the growth plan, and maintains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $40.00 from $37.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $41.14 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.37, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 245.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 245.00 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 245.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $63.56
UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -
Upon analysing data by NHS in the UK, UBS analysts believe Ramsay Health Care is performing well as e-referral growth in the country is improving. Company management had flagged they believed improvement would come.
UBS has made no changes, noting NHS waiting lists are likely to remain elevated for much longer. They also observe the shares are presently trading at a large 28% premium to the ASX200. Neutral. Price target $63.80.
Target price is $63.80 Current Price is $63.56 Difference: $0.24
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $63.02, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 150.00 cents and EPS of 291.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 285.8, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 313.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 313.1, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.25
Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -
As anticipated, ResMed has launched a new nasal pillows mask, the AirFit P30i. Citi analysts expect this new product will assist the company with its strong growth momentum in masks into FY20 while maintaining its leading market share position.
Citi estimates the current market share being in excess of 50% globally. ResMed's launch quickly follows the launch of DreamWisp by competitor Phillips which commands an estimated 30% market share.
On the analysts' forecasts, ResMed's masks are set to grow by 8%-9%, slightly above the market. Another competitor, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH)) is set a launch a new mask soon as well. Neutral rating and $14.70 price target retained.
Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: $0.45
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.90 cents and EPS of 47.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.10 cents and EPS of 50.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.3, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SLK SEALINK TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $3.90
Ord Minnett rates SLK as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett reviews a range of scenarios, noting the company has elected to invest in organic start-ups and this has adversely affected earnings growth. The broker expects this strategic approach will be maintained but supplemented with a range of other initiatives including asset sales or acquisitions.
The broker updates estimates to incorporate marginally lower margin assumptions for the Queensland/Northern Territory division. Estimates for earnings per share are downgraded by -1% for FY19 and are unchanged for FY20.
The broker retains a Strong Buy rating and believes the status quo is the least likely option the company will take, and this could drive positive changes in the year ahead. Target is $4.68.
Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.78
If SLK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 28.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.20
Macquarie rates WHC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie expects a strong finish to FY19. Forward curves for gas and coal imply both commodities have found the bottom and the broker believes the stock now offers an attractive entry point. The picture is also clearer regarding capital expenditure.
As there is little expenditure required in the next eight months Macquarie suspects the company will pay above the 25-50% dividend guidance at the FY19 result.
The broker also suggests the dividend may stay high in FY20, with franked dividends to commence and the potential for greater cost reductions at Maules Creek. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $4.20 from $4.10.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 60.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of -24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett was disappointed with the quarterly result. This was driven by another production downgrade for FY19 amid issues at Maules Creek. The broker observes coal prices now present a drag on earnings expectations.
The stock appears cheap, nevertheless, and the broker maintains an Accumulate rating. Target is reduced to $4.80 from $5.10.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.6
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 56.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of -24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BOQ | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Deutsche Bank | 9.00 | 9.50 | -5.26% |
BSL | BLUESCOPE STEEL | Ord Minnett | 16.90 | 17.80 | -5.06% |
COH | COCHLEAR | Deutsche Bank | 148.00 | 157.00 | -5.73% |
CSL | CSL | Credit Suisse | 192.00 | 200.00 | -4.00% |
DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Ord Minnett | 13.00 | 10.80 | 20.37% |
GBT | GBST HOLDINGS | UBS | 2.50 | 1.60 | 56.25% |
GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Citi | 3.20 | 3.80 | -15.79% |
ORE | OROCOBRE | Citi | 4.50 | 4.90 | -8.16% |
OZL | OZ MINERALS | Citi | 12.00 | 12.50 | -4.00% |
Macquarie | 12.30 | 12.40 | -0.81% | ||
Morgan Stanley | 11.10 | 11.00 | 0.91% | ||
PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Credit Suisse | 7.80 | 8.00 | -2.50% |
Morgans | 9.39 | 9.35 | 0.43% | ||
UBS | 8.70 | 9.05 | -3.87% | ||
PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Citi | 0.90 | 1.05 | -14.29% |
PPT | PERPETUAL | Citi | 41.00 | 34.00 | 20.59% |
Credit Suisse | 39.00 | 36.00 | 8.33% | ||
Ord Minnett | 40.00 | 37.50 | 6.67% | ||
WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Macquarie | 4.20 | 4.10 | 2.44% |
Ord Minnett | 4.80 | 5.10 | -5.88% |
Summaries
AZJ | AURIZON HOLDINGS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.64 |
BOQ | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.79 |
COH | COCHLEAR | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $167.48 |
CSL | CSL | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $195.38 |
CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $27.38 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $27.38 | ||
DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.82 |
GBT | GBST HOLDINGS | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.56 |
GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.82 |
MHJ | MICHAEL HILL | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.64 |
NEW | NEW ENERGY SOLAR | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.39 |
ORE | OROCOBRE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.45 |
OZL | OZ MINERALS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.59 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $10.59 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.59 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.59 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $10.59 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $10.59 | ||
PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $8.49 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.49 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $8.49 | ||
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $8.49 | ||
PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.71 |
PPT | PERPETUAL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $41.14 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $41.14 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $41.14 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $41.14 | ||
RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $63.56 |
RMD | RESMED | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $14.25 |
SLK | SEALINK TRAVEL | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.90 |
WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.20 |
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.20 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 9 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 18 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Monday 15 April 2019
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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