Australian Broker Call
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October 11, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BXB - | BRAMBLES | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
DMP - | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie | ||
IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
NWL - | NETWEALTH GROUP | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS | ||
ORA - | ORORA | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett | ||
WSA - | WESTERN AREAS | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
The company expects petroleum production to decline by -1.5% per annum over the medium term. Citi points out, excluding BHP Group's "less-than-happy experience with US shale assets", the underlying trend for aggregate oil equivalent production has been in steady decline for a decade.
Without new fields such as Trion or an unexpected major oil find in Trinidad and Tobago, the broker expects the company's oil production will continue to trend lower.
This is the issue Citi believes will be central to the November 11 update, amid indications where capital needs to be invested to sustain a flat production profile. Neutral rating and $39 target maintained.
Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $35.83 Difference: $3.17
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.78, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 227.69 cents and EPS of 323.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 322.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 192.12 cents and EPS of 273.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.7, implying annual growth of -16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 174.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BIN BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.16
Citi rates BIN as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -
Citi initiates coverage on the Australian waste management sector, rating Bingo Industries Neutral/High Risk with a $2.40 target.
Despite some near-term earnings risks, the broker is attracted to the prospects for margin expansion, industry consolidation and demand for onshore waste processing. This may keep upward pressure on industry costs over the short term but the broker expects this will be transitory.
The broker prefers exposure to Cleanaway ((CWY)) versus Bingo Industries, given earnings growth and a strong balance sheet as well as an undemanding valuation.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.24
If BIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.70 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 146.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.64
Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -
Citi notes the stock has underperformed since the FY19 result, largely because of negative sentiment and uncertainty around the FY20 outlook. However, the latest trading update demonstrates top-line strength, in the broker's view, despite a soft global environment.
Brambles reported revenue growth of 5% at constant FX rates, largely from price increases, which appear to be sticking, and new contracts gained across major geographies. CHEP Americas revenue growth was 7% and ahead of forecasts. Citi maintains a Buy rating and $13.30 target.
Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $1.66
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.93 cents and EPS of 50.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 41.55 cents and EPS of 64.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BXB as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
The company reported first quarter revenue growth of 2% actual and 5% at constant currency, in line with Credit Suisse forecasts.
Management reiterated guidance and noted CHEP Americas revenue was up 7% because of higher pricing, particularly in Latin America, amid rollover benefits from US pallet contracts and solid volume growth.
Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is steady is $11.20.
Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 42.23 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 47.80 cents and EPS of 54.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Equal-weight (3) -
Brambles reported first quarter constant currency revenue growth of 5% and CHEP Americas revenue growth of 7%. In actual terms, revenue growth is tracking in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts so FX appears to be more of a headwind than previously anticipated.
The company has reiterated guidance for US margin improvement, which the broker still expects will be weighted to the second half. Equal-weight. Target is $11.80. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $0.16
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.04 cents and EPS of 48.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 31.31 cents and EPS of 56.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BXB as Neutral (3) -
Brambles reported 5% revenue growth in the Sep Q, ahead of the broker's 4% forecast. The highlight was 4% growth in Europe/Middle East/Africa given economic headwinds, and a comparable of 8% growth in the prior year. US margin growth guidance was reiterated, and the broker has become more confident this can be achieved.
Brambles has underperformed the index by -15% since August. If guidance can be met, the broker sees potential for re-rating back towards an historical 10% PE premium to market over the next 2-3 years. Neutral and $12.10 target retained.
Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $0.46
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 79.58 cents and EPS of 71.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.96 cents and EPS of 86.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.98
Credit Suisse rates CMA as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse initiates coverage on Centuria Metro with a Neutral rating and $2.83 target. The business has a geographically diverse portfolio with highly predictable earnings. The broker notes the stock will soon be the only 100% invested pure office A-REIT on the ASX300.
The company has acquired interests in two office assets for $380.5m, partly funded by an underwritten equity raising. For further funding of growth ambitions, given pro forma gearing is 34.9%, Credit Suisse expects the company to either recycle capital or raise further equity.
Target price is $2.83 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CMA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CTD CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $17.62
Credit Suisse rates CTD as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse reduces FY20 estimates for operating earnings (EBITDA) to now be at the bottom end of guidance of $165-175m. Target is reduced to $27 from $28. Asia is a primary source of the broker's downgrade, because of the disruptions in Hong Kong.
Credit Suisse expects current trading conditions will curtail first half growth and there will be a stronger-than-usual skew to the second half. The broker continues to believe the company is a strong performer in an attractive industry structure and retains an Outperform rating.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $17.62 Difference: $9.38
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.65, suggesting upside of 51.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.64 cents and EPS of 96.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.60 cents and EPS of 114.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.8, implying annual growth of 16.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.01
Citi rates CWY as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
Citi initiates coverage on the Australian waste management sector, rating Cleanaway Waste Management a Buy with a $2.40 target.
Despite some near-term earnings risks, the broker is attracted to the prospects for margin expansion, industry consolidation and demand for onshore waste processing. This may keep upward pressure on industry costs over the short term, but the broker expects this will be transitory.
The broker prefers exposure to Cleanaway versus Bingo Industries ((BIN)), given earnings growth and a strong balance sheet as well as an undemanding valuation.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $0.39
If CWY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 14.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $48.69
Citi rates DMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi lowers the rating to Neutral from Buy, given the 28% rise in the share price. The investor briefing provided more detail about the benefits of store density.
While the reasoning is logical, the broker believes there are intermediate challenges, where a pre-existing store can experience lower sales for several years when a new store opens nearby.
The business has good prospects but the broker believes this is factored into the share price. Targets raised to $46.40 from $44.00.
Target price is $46.40 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: minus $2.29 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.28, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 185.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.9, implying annual growth of 34.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 150.30 cents and EPS of 212.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates DMP as Neutral (3) -
Following the investor briefing, Credit Suisse is a little more positive on the longer-term growth story. Still, the inflection point for Europe may be several years away and growth will probably require higher levels of investment.
The broker suggests lack of scale in France has been a bigger constraint on growth than previously appreciated. There appears to be a greater willingness to support management in France with capital, in order to accelerate the opening of additional corporate stores.
Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $38.52 target.
Target price is $38.52 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: minus $10.17 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.28, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.9, implying annual growth of 34.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates DMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Macquarie observes the company's growth outlook is robust across Europe and Japan, as categories are expanded and market share is obtained.
The company's investor briefing provided no trading update and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following the recent share price performance and transfers coverage to another analyst.
The broker expects the stock to trade sideways until the market becomes more comfortable about Australasian earnings in FY20 and beyond as well as franchisee profitability. Target is $48.40.
Target price is $48.40 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.28, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 127.80 cents and EPS of 183.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.9, implying annual growth of 34.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 144.70 cents and EPS of 207.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DMP as Lighten (4) -
Domino's Pizza provided greater detail on the merits of "fortress" store density and the positive impact of aggregators at its investor briefing, Ord Minnett observes.
The company was also upfront about negatives, including franchisee support in France and marketing mishaps in Australasia. Despite the positive commentary, the broker notes a lack of valuation support.
The broker assesses the share price performance assumes strong execution, which has been patchy in the past. Lighten rating and $36 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: minus $12.69 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.28, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 174.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.9, implying annual growth of 34.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 191.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -
The key takeaways from Domino's investor day were likely further M&A -- the broker assumes in Europe -- a re-basing of Europe growth expectations with Germany now bedded down, setting up for long term growth, and A&NZ margins remaining at risk.
The broker is not certain European integration will be reflected in the FY20 result, and believes there is downside risk to A&NZ margin assumptions, from a current flat. Buy and $48.50 target retained.
Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.28, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 188.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.9, implying annual growth of 34.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.24
Ord Minnett rates IGO as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
With nickel prices rising 65% in the year to date and stockpiles continuing to be drawn down, Ord Minnett increases FY20 estimates for the nickel price by 35%. This lifts earnings estimates for the company by 30%.
The broker believes strong spot prices have come at a good time for offtake negotiations as concentrate markets are already tight. The broker raises the target to $5.70 from $5.30 but downgrades to Lighten from Hold, assessing the positives are priced into the equity.
Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 162.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of -11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.08
Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie reviews the $81bn urban regeneration pipeline and the broader business post the sale of engineering & services. The broker assesses co-investments will increase by 60% to $2.7bn as funds under management grow to over $50bn on a five-year view.
The broker raises the target to $19.77 from $16.41 because of an increase in investment and development multiples. Outperform retained.
Target price is $19.77 Current Price is $17.08 Difference: $2.69
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.18, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 134.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.0, implying annual growth of 61.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 68.80 cents and EPS of 138.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.79
UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -
Media reports suggest 7-Eleven will be tendering for its supply of fresh and dry goods as a 13-year-plus contract with Metcash is expected to end mid next year. 7-Eleven is the company's largest convenience customer. The risk is Metcash loses the contract or has to renegotiate terms, the broker notes.
A full loss of the contract would result in -5-6% cuts to FY21 earnings forecasts. The broker retains Buy and a $3.10 target, suggesting the current share price is overstating earnings risk.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.31
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $8.68
Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -
First quarter net flows of $1.5bn were up 40% and ahead of forecasts. Citi found the quarterly results robust, especially given net flows were not driven by ANZ Private transition.
The broker expects the stock to react positively to this update and the company should continue to gain market share, benefiting from an improvement in adviser activity levels.
Neutral rating and $8 price target maintained.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 21.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of 20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NWL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, as trading multiples are now limiting the share price upside. First quarter funds under administration were up 8.5% amid positive market movements. Flows were strong but slightly below expectations.
While the company is making the most of its unique opportunity, created by the disruption of the wealth management industry, a declining revenue margin is diluting growth, in the broker's view. Target is $7.60.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 21.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of 20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NWL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Netwealth's Sep Q net flows were up 40% on the prior year, but FY20 guidance requires a 60% increase. Given the ANZ Private Bank mandate win, UBS believes this is achievable. Thus earnings growth prospects remain strong. Target rises to $7.50 from $7.25.
But margin risk is growing. The broker is forecasting an RBA cash rate of 0.25% by May, which would knock -9% off earnings on reduced cash spread margins. Given Netwealth's forward PE has re-rated to 49x from 39x in FY19, UBS downgrades to Sell.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.72, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 21.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of 20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.03
Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
Citi believes the sale of the Australasian fibre business to Nippon Paper is strategically and financially positive. This removes a lower margin/returns business from the company's portfolio.
The broker estimates 10% accretion to earnings per share and raises the target to $3.20 from $2.90. A Neutral rating is maintained, given the challenging market conditions.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 23.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ORA as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
The sale price of the Australasian fibre business, with proceeds of $1.57bn, was ahead of Credit Suisse's valuation. Management has indicated a trading update will be provided at the AGM next week.
Credit Suisse reduces earnings estimates, suspecting weakness on the back of a soft US manufacturing survey, and given the company's statement that initiatives were being implemented to deliver earnings growth (does this mean earnings are not growing?).
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $3.40 from $2.80.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.37
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 12.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 23.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORA as No Rating (-1) -
The company will sell its Australasian fibre business to Nippon Paper for $1.72bn. The transaction represents an FY19 adjusted operating earnings (EBITDA) multiple of 11.5x.
Subsequently, Orora intends to return $1.2bn to shareholders through capital management initiatives with further details in due course. The AGM is on October 15. Macquarie cannot provide a rating or target at present.
Current Price is $3.03. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 23.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Equal-weight (3) -
The sale of Australasian fibre assets at a healthy multiple provides significant scope for capital management, Morgan Stanley assesses, but it increases the company's exposure to North American earnings risk.
Subject to regulatory approvals, the sale of the business to Nippon Paper is expected to be completed early in 2020, with capital management to follow in the first half of FY21. The deal reduces the company's footprint in Australia to beverage packaging.
Orora will hold its AGM in October 14, when the broker expects an update on trading conditions. Equal-weight. Price target is $3.00. Sector view is Cautious.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 23.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ORA as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Orora will sell its Australasian fibre business to Nippon Paper and Ord Minnett believes the latter has clearly paid a premium at $1.72bn. The broker believes the decision to sell was the right one as there were minimal synergies with the other businesses under Orora's umbrella.
However, the quality of the portfolio has been diluted, as the North American business now represents close to half of group earnings (EBIT).
Given this, the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate, awaiting an update at the AGM. Target is raised to $3.25 from $3.00. The broker assumes the transaction closes in January 2020 and $1.2bn is returned to shareholders via a special dividend.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.22
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 23.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
The sale price of Orora's Australasian Fibre business represents a 20% premium to the company's stated FY19 enterprise multiple, the broker notes (regulatory approval pending). Net of transaction costs, Orora expects to receive $1.55bn and return $1.2bn to shareholders by means yet to be determined.
The broker has left earnings forecasts unchanged pending approval, but lifts its target to $3.05 from $2.85. Neutral retained.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.02
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 23.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.93
Macquarie rates RDY as Outperform (1) -
The company has acquired payroll and workforce management software/service businesses Zambion and WageLink for $12m. The transactions are expected to be accretive in FY20 and complement the existing employment business.
Zambion extends the geographic reach to New Zealand. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $2.40 from $2.20.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.47
If RDY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $66.58
Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie highlights the favourable attributes of the company's hospital portfolio which, combined with the deployment of capital at several of the largest sites, means above-industry growth over the near to medium term.
An improved tariff environment in both France and the UK will also support growth in FY20. The broker retains an Outperform rating and $71.50 target.
Target price is $71.50 Current Price is $66.58 Difference: $4.92
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $68.30, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 293.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.4, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 314.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.0, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.27
UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -
Ahead of ResMed's Sep Q results, the broker has made adjustments for forex and tax assumptions, leading to modest earnings downgrades. Target unchanged at US$140 (A$20.75 at current spot).
With US durable medical equipment providers embracing sleep therapies as a key driver, the broker believes growth in sleep products will remain robust for some time, and ResMed has achieved a market-leading position. Buy retained.
Current Price is $19.27. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $18.74, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.49 cents and EPS of 55.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.62 cents and EPS of 63.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.4, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.17
Macquarie rates SPK as Neutral (3) -
Spark NZ has been awarded the official rights for all NZ Cricket's matches played in New Zealand, on a six-year deal. Macquarie notes this is a major first for the company, requiring significant production, which Spark is expected to outsource.
The broker considers the deal a potential game changer for the company, which has convinced its first major NZ sports body that it has the outside broadcast capacity, reach and technical ability to deliver quality content. Target is NZ$4.45. Neutral retained.
Current Price is $4.17. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.66 cents and EPS of 21.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.66 cents and EPS of 22.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SPK as Neutral (3) -
NZ Cricket has announced it has awarded domestic cricket rights to Spark Sports and TVNZ, for six years from April 2020 including all NZ domestic cricket games. The announcement came as a surprise. The question for the broker is as to whether Spark NZ aggressively bids for the remaining Tier 1 sports or will a more cooperative approach be agreed.
The cricket rights raise the stakes for rugby and league. The broker assumes Spark will be successful, but at substantial cost, putting the company at risk of losing its A- credit rating. Neutral and NZ$4.20 target retained.
Current Price is $4.17. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.66 cents and EPS of 21.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.66 cents and EPS of 22.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.38
Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie considers the first gas production from Project Atlas is a key de-risking event for the company. Meanwhile, ramp-up at Roma North continues amid further upside, in the broker's view, should the company elect to expand the gas processing facility.
Senex Energy has committed to an accelerated capital investment program within the Surat Basin including completing a 110 well drilling program.
The broker considers the latest announcements are positive steps towards achieving the target of 18PJ per annum gas production by the end of FY21. Outperform and 55c target retained.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.17
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.62
Citi rates TCL as Sell (5) -
The company reported 1.8% average daily traffic growth across the network in the first quarter. This was weaker than Citi expected, although distribution guidance is likely to be unchanged given the company's ability to fund the distribution from capital releases and increase the pay-out ratio.
Nevertheless, such practices are unlikely to be sustainable over the medium term, the broker asserts, meaning distribution growth could remain in the low to mid-single-digit range for some time. A Sell rating and $12.09 target are maintained.
Target price is $12.09 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: minus $2.53 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.33, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 213.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -
September quarter traffic growth across Australia was weak with the M4 being the exception, albeit in line with Macquarie's expectations. North American traffic and price growth was strong despite a price rise on the A25.
The broker reduces the target to $14.82 from $15.26 to reflect a softer traffic outlook, mainly on Citylink. However, Macquarie notes opportunities around the widening of the M7 and projects in the US, which should provide a step change in growth. Neutral retained.
Target price is $14.82 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: $0.2
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.33, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 53.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 213.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 59.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -
First quarter average daily traffic growth of 1.8% revealed some pick up versus the prior quarter's run rate, Morgan Stanley assesses. Queensland traffic was ahead of expectations while NSW was mixed.
North American traffic was ahead of estimates while the Virginian average toll performance was well ahead.
Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view maintained. Target is $15.28.
Target price is $15.28 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: $0.66
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.33, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 213.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TCL as Neutral (3) -
Sydney and Melbourne weakness dented traffic growth for Transurban in the Sep Q, while strength in Brisbane and the US provided for net 1.8% growth. Revenues would have performed better, UBS notes, thanks to toll hikes.
The broker looks ahead for stronger growth in 2020, with the opening of new express lanes in Washington and NorthConnex and WestConnex stage 2 in Sydney. Neutral and $15.10 target retained.
Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: $0.48
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.33, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 213.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.07
Ord Minnett rates WSA as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
As nickel prices have risen 65% in the year to date and stockpiles are being drawn down, Ord Minnett updates nickel price forecasts. FY20 nickel price forecasts are increased by 35% which lifts earnings estimates for the company by 270%.
The strong spot prices have arrived at a good time for offtake negotiations for miners as concentrate markets are already tight.
However, the broker believes this is priced into the equities and downgrades Western Areas to Hold from Speculative Buy. Target is raised to $3.20 from $2.90.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.13
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 497.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
CTD | CORPORATE TRAVEL | $17.62 | Credit Suisse | 27.00 | 28.00 | -3.57% |
CWY | CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT | $2.01 | Citi | 2.40 | 13.40 | -82.09% |
DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | $48.69 | Citi | 46.40 | 44.00 | 5.45% |
IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | $6.24 | Ord Minnett | 5.70 | 5.30 | 7.55% |
LLC | LENDLEASE | $17.08 | Macquarie | 19.77 | 16.41 | 20.48% |
NWL | NETWEALTH GROUP | $8.68 | UBS | 7.50 | 7.25 | 3.45% |
ORA | ORORA | $3.03 | Citi | 3.20 | 2.90 | 10.34% |
Credit Suisse | 3.40 | 2.80 | 21.43% | |||
Macquarie | N/A | 3.25 | -100.00% | |||
Ord Minnett | 3.25 | 3.00 | 8.33% | |||
UBS | 3.05 | 2.85 | 7.02% | |||
RDY | READYTECH HOLDINGS | $1.93 | Macquarie | 2.40 | 2.20 | 9.09% |
TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | $14.62 | Macquarie | 14.82 | 15.26 | -2.88% |
WSA | WESTERN AREAS | $3.07 | Ord Minnett | 3.20 | 2.90 | 10.34% |
Summaries
BHP | BHP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $35.83 |
BIN | BINGO INDUSTRIES | Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.16 |
BXB | BRAMBLES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.64 |
Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.64 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.64 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $11.64 | ||
CMA | CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT | Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.98 |
CTD | CORPORATE TRAVEL | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $17.62 |
CWY | CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT | Initiation of coverage with Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.01 |
DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $48.69 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $48.69 | ||
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $48.69 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $48.69 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $48.69 | ||
IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.24 |
LLC | LENDLEASE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.08 |
MTS | METCASH | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.79 |
NWL | NETWEALTH GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $8.68 |
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.68 | ||
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $8.68 | ||
ORA | ORORA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.03 |
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.03 | ||
No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.03 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.03 | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.03 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.03 | ||
RDY | READYTECH HOLDINGS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.93 |
RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $66.58 |
RMD | RESMED | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $19.27 |
SPK | SPARK NEW ZEALAND | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.17 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.17 | ||
SXY | SENEX ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.38 |
TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $14.62 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $14.62 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $14.62 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $14.62 | ||
WSA | WESTERN AREAS | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.07 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 11 |
3. Hold | 20 |
4. Reduce | 2 |
5. Sell | 3 |
Friday 11 October 2019
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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