Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AHY as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

On Citi's observation, competition remains high in the tissue categories in Australian supermarkets and this should keep the pressure on Asaleo Care. Revised forecasts now assume group earnings to decline in both FY16 and FY17.

The offset is the company is expected to appease shareholders with a high dividend payout (10c, stable), hence why Citi thinks a Neutral rating is more appropriate than moving to Sell. The 7%-plus yield should provide support. Target drops 10c to $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.07
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has updated its modeling for recent FX movements and macro data. It appears things should be moving into the right direction for Ansell's industrial focused operations, but the analysts prefer to remain on the conservative side.

They firmly stick to their Neutral rating, while bumping up the price target to $22.80 from $21.65. The analysts also note recent increases in prices for both natural and synthetic rubber latex are presenting headwinds for the company.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $24.60 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.64, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Banking analysts at Citi published not one but a few reports on the Australian banking sector today. The bottom line is that share prices have run hard while the analysts remain of the view there is no operational improvement on the horizon to justify the rally.

Citi has downgraded ANZ Bank to Neutral from Buy. Target price lifts to $31.50 from $31.25. The broker's pecking order for the sector remains unchanged: (most to least preferred) ANZ, NAB, WBC, CBA.

Note: DPS estimates have been slightly increased from a previous view they were to remain at 160c for years to come.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $29.89 Difference: $1.61
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.34, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AQG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Alacer enjoyed a heap leach grade breakthrough in the Dec Q having resolved earlier issues, leading to production beating Macquarie by 9%. Revised 2016 guidance was achieved. While 2017 should now see much improved cash flow, it will also see peak capex for the sulphide project, the broker notes.

Macquarie has lifted its target to $2.40 from $2.30 but given strength in the share price, downgrades to Neutral.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 65.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWE as Neutral (3) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. With Waitsia now such a significant component of valuation, updates on progress will be AWE's key driver in 2017, the broker suggests.

Target rises to 70c from 68c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.09
If AWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.66, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

A preliminary agreement has been reached with regard compensation for the Samarco disaster. While uncertainty remains over the cash element, the announced June 2017 settlement date removes timing uncertainty, the broker notes.

The broker retains Hold for BHP with a $23 target, preferring Rio Tinto ((RIO)). 

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $26.69 Difference: minus $3.69 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.76, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. The net effect is a target increase for BHP to $27 from $25, Neutral retained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $26.69 Difference: $0.31
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.76, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. Exploration is back in focus for Beach in 2017, with Kangaroo showing immediate success. The broker is assuming further success but notes the market is as well.

Neutral and 70c target retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting downside of -16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Hold (3) -

The broker has upgraded its HRC steel price forecast in 2017 by 20% and scrap by 10%. 

Bluescope is benefitting from the positive steel environment but is fairly valued, the broker suggests. Target rises to $10.20 from $7.50. Hold retained.

The broker has not as yet published updated EPS/DPS numbers.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $10.87 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BTT as Hold (3) -

BT Investment posted strong net Dec Q inflows of $1.9bn, albeit $2bn was flagged back in October, the broker notes. With the bulk of flows heading into JOHCM, the departure of the fund's international head is a clear negative, the broker suggests, given his critical role in growing JOHCM. 

The broker thus remains cautious on the medium term outlook and retains Hold. Target falls to $9.80 from $10.35.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.69 Difference: $0.11
If BTT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

The used car industry in Australia is ripe for disruption, conclude analysts at Citi, and why wouldn't industry leader Carsales become the major disruptor?

The analysts add if Carsales doesn't do it, others will. Bottom line: the analysts foresee significant opportunity for growth. But first the incoming CEO needs to fix Stratton. Buy. Target $12.10.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.90 Difference: $1.2
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.88, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Banking analysts at Citi published not one but a few reports on the Australian banking sector today. The bottom line is that share prices have run hard while the analysts remain of the view there is no operational improvement on the horizon to justify the rally.

Citi has downgraded CommBank to Sell from Hold. Target price remains $75. The broker's pecking order for the sector remains unchanged: (most to least preferred) ANZ, NAB, WBC, CBA.

Note: CBA is still expected to cut its dividend to 357c in FY18.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $82.67 Difference: minus $7.67 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.66, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

The "secret" so to speak behind CSL's upgraded profit growth guidance for FY17 is the company was simply well prepared to benefit from competitors' mishaps, and it has come to fruition, suggests Citi.

The analysts point out, should the current supply tightness continue, CSL will continue to benefit from both solid volume growth and/or an IVIG price increase. They also observe there have been no changes to Seqirus' outlook. Target lifts to $113.75. Neutral.

Target price is $113.75 Current Price is $111.50 Difference: $2.25
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.48, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company issued an upgrade to previous FY17 guidance and Credit Suisse analysts are suggesting CSL is benefiting from supply issues among competitors. Specialty products and raw plasma in particular are being singled out.

The crux in this story is that CSL has recorded a substantial increase in plasma collection capacity in recent years. This now is enabling the company to meet additional demand requirements and gain market share, point out the analysts.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target jumps to $119 from $110. Estimates have lifted.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $111.50 Difference: $7.5
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.48, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's longstanding Underweight rating on CSL was driven by a (correctly) assumed period of downward earnings revisions. Recently the broker has seen earnings risk dissipating, and this has been confirmed by CSL's guidance upgrade, largely due to leaving competitors in the dust.

History suggests it takes a long time for the competition to recover, thus while valuation still looks stretched to the broker, an upgrade to Equal-weight follows. Target rises to $106 from $96. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $106.00 Current Price is $111.50 Difference: minus $5.5 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.48, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Add (1) -

CSL has been benefiting from supply issues among competitors and this has allowed management to upgrade growth guidance for the year. Morgans analysts question whether the implied growth rate in H2 is not too conservative?

The analysts comment that, clearly, CSL is making hay while the sun shines, plus there is no Trump impact whatsoever. Add rating retained. Price target lifts to $122.60 from $120.20 previously on increased estimates (to top of company guidance).

Target price is $122.60 Current Price is $111.50 Difference: $11.1
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.48, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

CSL revising upwards its profit guidance for FY17 has triggered an upgrade to Accumulate from Hold, alongside a boost to the price target to $120 from $100 prior. Ord Minnett analysts admit they were taken by surprise.

The analysts note the company's strategy of "aggressively investing" in collection and fractionation capacity is allowing CSL to again take advantage of a supply issues among competitors. They see further upside to the implied underlying growth rate for H2.

Ord Minnett has now taken the view CSL stands to enjoy above-market growth from its core plasma operations for at least a further 18 months. This prediction has now been reflected in forecasts.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $111.50 Difference: $8.5
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.48, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL has upgraded FY17 profit growth guidance to 18-20% from a prior 11%. The broker was already forecasting above guidance but has made further increases. It seems CSL's investment in new collection centres is paying off, at the expense of competitors.

It will take some time for competitors to catch up and meanwhile, specialty products are also contributing to growth, the broker notes. Buy retained. Target rises to $122 from $114.

Target price is $122.00 Current Price is $111.50 Difference: $10.5
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.48, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Following last month's upgrade to Outperform and target increase thanks to a delayed, but bumper harvest, the broker has further increased earnings on latest harvest expectations and an increase in Graincorp market share late in the season due to competitor supply constraints.

The broker further notes Australian farmers' greater comfort with low global prices, given high yields, will flow though to a boost from Graincorp's marketing. Outperform retained, target rises to $10.08 from $9.75.

Target price is $10.08 Current Price is $9.24 Difference: $0.84
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HZN as Buy (1) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. Beibu development offers potential near term upside for Horizon, the broker notes, but PNG gas value remains less tangible. 

On a strong share price run, UBS downgrades to Neutral. Target unchanged at 7c.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.009
If HZN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.07, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Banking analysts at Citi published not one but a few reports on the Australian banking sector today. The bottom line is that share prices have run hard while the analysts remain of the view there is no operational improvement on the horizon to justify the rally.

National Australia Bank is the sole among the major four to not receive a downgrade in rating. Price target $30.50 (unchanged). The broker's pecking order for the sector remains unchanged: (most to least preferred) ANZ, NAB, WBC, CBA.

Note: NAB is still expected to cut its dividend to 178c in FY18.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $30.42 Difference: $0.08
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Origin is close to full operations at APLNG, a sustainable capital structure, and reduced corporate complexity, Morgan Stanley notes. The company's balance sheet repair process, simplification plans and incremental earnings growth for the Energy Markets division see the broker upgrade to Overweight.

Divestment of conventional gas assets will leave a simpler business more able to weather lower oil prices, Morgan Stanley suggests. Origin remains energy retail leader by customer market share. Target rises to $8.75 from $6.04.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $1.5
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. The broker sees a rising near term oil price, stronger APLNG output and higher electricity prices as improving sentiment for Origin.

Target rises to $8.20 from $6.70, Buy retained.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.95
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. It will be a busy year for Oil Search, the broker notes, but a final investment decision on LNG expansion is still some two years away.

Target rises to $7.65 from $7.55, Neutral retained.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.47
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.73, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Regis' Dec Q numbers were broadly in line with Macquarie's expectation, with higher grades at Duketon providing a production boost. First ore from Gloster and Erlistoun will further boost grades.

Strong cash generation is ongoing and exploration remains in focus. While Macquarie believes Regis' consistent delivery justifies a premium to peers, the share price has run ahead of valuation. Downgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $3.00 from $2.90.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts comment the December quarter was a rather weak one for the company. This was partially flagged, but further compounded by lower silver grades at Cannington and a fall in thermal coal production in South Africa.

The fact that management retained its guidance for the full year means the company is anticipating a better H2, point out the analysts. They have reduced estimates on lower realised prices. Buy rating retained. Target drops to $3.10 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.32
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse spotted a "challenging" December quarter, but also notes management has left guidance for the full year intact. The analysts made minor changes only. Neutral. Target $2.80 (unchanged).

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.02
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank observes how the December quarter production slightly missed expectations on both volumes and pricing. SA coal and lower ore grades at Cannington are to blame.

The analysts note the shares are trading at around 10% free cash flow (implied at spot prices) and the company has no debt (net cash circa US$1bn), but the rating nevertheless remains on Hold. Target $2.50 (was $2.55).

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 delivered a mixed Dec Q production report, featuring beats for alumina, aluminium, met coal, manganese and zinc against the broker's forecasts, offset by misses for thermal coal, silver, nickel and lead. FY17 guidance has been maintained.

The broker has slightly trimmed forecasts but target unchanged at $3.80. Given strong cash flow generation, the broker suggests the company could declare a strong interim dividend. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $1.02
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32's share price has tripled in 12 months, so the broker would not be surprised to see some profit-taking. However, on the broker's upgraded commodity price forecasts, which are still below spot, valuation remains undemanding. The company is already net cash, and cash could double from here, the broker suggests.

Cash generation should support the share price. The broker does not expect South32 to rush into a spending spree, hence shareholders stand to be rewarded. Overweight retained. Target rises to $3.40 from $3.00. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.62
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Morgans saw a relatively "steady" performance from South32 in the December quarter, though the analysts note disappointing production from Cannington and South African coal offsetting better-than-expected production from SA Manganese and Illawarra coal.

The analysts see strong manganese and metallurgical coal prices underpinning the upcoming financial interim report, while drawing confidence from management's confidence they'll catch up in H2.

Target price lifts to $3.11 (was $2.64). Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.33
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as No Rating (-1) -

South32's Dec Q production report was mixed, the broker notes. The broker remains on research restriction. 

Current Price is $2.78. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32 posted a mixed Dec Q, boosted by strong alumina/aluminium production and opportunistic sales of manganese stockpiles, the broker notes. Other commodities missed expectation but FY17 production guidance has been retained.

A strong second half for some assets will thus be needed, the broker warns. But with the cash flowing freely, it all comes down to just how much the company will reward shareholders. Neutral and $2.75 target retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

On Citi's observation, the share market had already anticipated the improvement in market dynamics for scrap steel collector and seller, Sims Metal. The analysts have updated forecasts and lifted the price target to $13.70 from $11.20.

As the revised price target is only marginally above the share price, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Note: Citi's estimates are some 23% ahead of consensus EPS estimates for FY17.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.90 Difference: $0.8
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

The company has upgraded its guidance for FY17 and Credit Suisse analysts have been forced to upwardly adjust their forecasts. Yet, they remain of the view the only way forward for the iron ore price is down, and this means prices for scrap will follow.

On this basis, downgrade to Underperform from Neutral. Target price remains $9.90. A second factor underpinning the downgrade is the fact the share price is trading well above target.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $12.90 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Hold (3) -

Management has seen fit to report better-than-expected operational performance in H2, but Deutsche Bank analysts remain cautious.

They anticipate headwinds to reveal themselves from Q4FY17 and into FY18 as commodity prices decline.

Higher estimates push up the price target to $11.86 from $11.72. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $11.86 Current Price is $12.90 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Underperform (5) -

Improved commodity prices and operational cost cuts have led Sims to upgrade first half earnings guidance by 20%. But for the broker, the issue remains one of sustainability of volumes. Stronger fundamental demand is absent.

The broker has increased forecasts and its target price to $11.20 from $9.40. Underperform retained given the strong share price run.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $12.90 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Accumulate (2) -

The broker has upgraded its HRC steel price forecast in 2017 by 20% and scrap by 10%. 

Sims remains the broker's key pick in the space due to an assumption volume growth will drive margin improvement, cost-outs are under-appreciated by the market, and earnings upgrades should continue. Accumulate retained. Target rises to $14.30 from $10.90.

The broker has not as yet published updated EPS/DPS numbers.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.90 Difference: $1.4
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Sims has lifted first half earnings guidance to $95-99m from a prior $63m which the broker believes has been driven by higher scrap prices in the Dec Q, along with cost cuts and efficiencies.

The broker has lifted forecasts by 24% and 11% in FY17-18 and taken account of the 10% buyback. Target rises to $14.10 from $12.35. While the share price has had a solid run, the broker believes there is still further upside potential. Buy retained.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $12.90 Difference: $1.2
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. The broker has adjusted for Santos' surprise raising and suggests a clear focus on cost reduction provides for few catalysts in 2017.

Target falls to $4.60 from $4.90. Downgrade to Neutral.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.49
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Updating their modeling for mark-to-market and various other input changes has triggered a new price target; $13.15 instead of $13. Rating remains Neutral with the analysts predicting a solid result in February, but insufficient to move the share price a lot higher.

Queensland CTP changes are likely to create a headwind for the bankinsurer, thinks Citi, while weather events in SA and Victoria might see Suncorp yet again exceed its hazard allowances.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Banking analysts at Citi published not one but a few reports on the Australian banking sector today. The bottom line is that share prices have run hard while the analysts remain of the view there is no operational improvement on the horizon to justify the rally.

Citi has downgraded Westpac to Sell from Neutral. Target price loses 50c to $30.50. The broker's pecking order for the sector remains unchanged: (most to least preferred) ANZ, NAB, WBC, CBA.

Note: Citi still expects the dividend to be cut to 160c in FY18.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.33 Difference: minus $1.83 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Whitehaven is on target to meet FY17 production guidance but the Dec Q featured a bigger discount for semi-soft coal pricing than the broker had anticipated. A greater proportion of semi-soft production ahead means higher costs.

The broker nevertheless expects earnings to accelerate in the second half and the company to be net cash by September, delivering a 21% free cash flow yield. Neutral and $2.70 target retained. 

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts remain of the view the market is too bearish on Woodside's growth profile, anticipating some 5% growth in EPS for 2017. All in all, the analysts deem the shares are probably fairly valued at present level.

Citi acknowledges it cannot see any positive catalysts on the horizon, but then it doesn't see what could cause the shares to weaken significantly either. Neutral. Target has crept up to $31.16 from $30.53.

Target price is $31.16 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse describes the December quarter production update as "strong, but uneventful". The analysts continue to struggle with how they can value the shares at the level they are currently trading at.

Well, they cannot. Hence why the rating remains Underperform. Rolling forward the model generates an increase in price target, but only to $26.70 (was $25.80).

Target price is $26.70 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $5.38 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Woodside's December quarter production beat Deutsche Bank's expectation for volume, but not so on realised prices, while exploration spending proved higher than expected.

For the first time the company has provided guidance for 2017; it is aiming for 84-90mmboe. The analysts are of the view this implies a downgrade vis-a-vis 2016 caused by a lower share in North West Shelf domestic gas volumes.

Estimates have received a mild upgrade, predominantly due to the company's PRRT guidance. Target gains 20c to $28.80. Hold.

Target price is $28.80 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $3.28 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Woodside's LNG production was lower in the Dec Q due to a number of issues but in line with the broker's expectation. 2017 production will be some -6% lower than 2016 but this is due to a smaller equity stake in the North West Shelf pipeline.

That will be offset by the start-up of Wheatstone mid-year, the broker notes. Meanwhile, capex continues to fall. Neutral and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Overweight (1) -

Woodside's 2016 production beat the broker's forecast but will wane from 2017 before new projects -- Wheatstone, Greater Enfield -- kick in. Capex is trending lower thus on assumed better oil prices, cash flow should improve.

The broker suggests Woodside remains undervalued, with more clarity ahead on growth options set to provide upside. Overweight retained. Target rises to $34.22 from $34.09. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $34.22 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: $2.14
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Hold (3) -

According to stockbroker Morgans, Woodside delivered its second consecutive strong quarterly production report. The analysts highlight the company boasts a high-margin production base, but there are doubts about its growth profile.

Clearly, Morgans shares those doubts. Hold rating retained. Target lifts to $30.40 (was $27.86). Key risk stems from the oil market where volatility is par for the course, note the analysts.

Target price is $30.40 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Accumulate (2) -

Woodside posted record production in 2016, albeit slightly below the broker's forecast due to shipping anomalies. A reduction in North West Shelf participation will mean production will decline in 2017.

The broker notes Wheatstone remains on track and the development of other near/medium term projects could see production grow by 25%. Medium term growth and strong returns support the broker's Accumulate rating and $36 target.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: $3.92
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

UBS has lowered its 2018-20 oil price forecasts by 6-7%. While 2017 will see OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts have their effect, this will quickly be offset and surpassed by an aggressive US shale response, supported by falling costs, the broker believes. Forecasts nevertheless remain above consensus.

A US$60/bbl (Brent) forecast remains in place for 2017. A fall in LNG storage levels leads to an increase in natgas price forecasts. Woodside's Dec Q production was in line with forecast, and the broker notes Wheatstone is moving towards first production and drilling in Myanmar and Senegal is set to commence.

Target rises to $35.40 from $31.90, Buy retained.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $32.08 Difference: $3.32
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources