Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Following a quick full analysis of a2 Milk Co's update, Citi lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 5% and FY27 by 2%, with FY28 left unchanged.

This follows an increase to its FY26 revenue growth forecast from continuing operations to 10.9% from 7.4%. The broker is now estimating FY26 EBITDA margin of 15.5%, within the company's 15-16% guidance, with 2H margin expected to be higher vs 1H.

Target rises to $10.45 from $9.29. Buy maintained, with the broker reminding last year the company also upgraded earnings guidance at the February interim result.

Previous summary follows:

As Citi had flagged, a2 Milk Co delivered a stronger-than-expected update at the AGM, lifting FY26 revenue growth guidance to low-double digits from high-single digit previously.

FY26 net profit is also guided to be higher vs FY25, compared to broadly flat expected before. In a quick take, the broker notes outperformance has come from IMF, Other Nutritionals, Liquid Milk, and FX benefits from a weaker NZD.

The broker expects the stock to trade strongly today. 

Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $9.22 Difference: $1.23
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.36, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABG as Buy (1) -

Abacus Group delivered a resilient update for 1Q26, with stable occupancy (excluding surrendered space) and stronger leasing spreads, up 7.7% in office and 8.1% in retail. This compares with 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively, in FY25, Citi highlights.

Office occupancy eased to 88.4%, but incentives fell to 25.1% from 33%, signalling improving demand despite a small sample size.  Retail outperformed, with occupancy rising to 98.2%.

Gearing increased modestly to 35.6% from 34.5% after the FY25 dividend, but remained below the 40% target. FY26 distribution guidance was maintained at 8.5c.

Buy. Target price $1.41.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.245
If ABG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ATA as Buy (1) -

At Atturra's investor day, the company outlined a well-delivered strategy around sovereign capability, enterprise AI services, recurring platform revenue and an emphasis on its vertical growth, Shaw and Partners explains.

The analyst continues to believe Atturra is a good 'picks and shovels' play on enterprise AI cloud adoption in Australia, which should underpin faster organic growth in FY27. A Buy (High, risk) rating is re-iterated with an unchanged target of $1.20.

Australia's AI opportunity is estimated to be up to $18bn p.a. by 2030, with existing obstacles around a skills shortage, poor data quality and strict 'public-cloud-only' strategies.

Aligned with AGM updates, management re-iterated FY26 guidance with revenue of $384m and underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $40.3m, including Blue Connections.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.465
If ATA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 45.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Bellevue Gold rises to $1.55 from $1.40. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.32
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its target for Catapult Sports by -21% to $6.70 to reflect an increase in share-based payments and after a mark-to-market adjustment of Rule of 40 peer group multiples. Buy rating retained.

A summary of the broker's initial take on 1H results follows.

Catapult Group’s interim result (out today) exceeded UBS' expectations at first glance, with the broker highlighting strong growth and expanding operating leverage.

Annual contract value (ACV) rose 20% year-on-year to US$115.8m, slightly above guidance, while revenue increased 17% to US$67.6m, outperforming consensus.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$11.7m, excluding a one-off -US$2m payroll tax expense, reflected an 88% improvement and a 660bps margin gain, observe the analysts.

UBS notes continued momentum across both Performance & Health (wearables) and Tactics & Coaching (video), with total professional teams up 8% to 3,878 and multi-product adoption lifting to 22%.

It’s thought incremental margins above 50% demonstrate strong scalability as growth accelerates. UBS retains a positive view, expecting FY26 ACV growth of around 23%. 

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $2.24
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 53.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall's AGM included a FY26 guidance update with an upgrade of 5.5% to 95c, which is 3.5% above Citi's estimate and 4% higher than the consensus.

Management links the upgrade to increased investment activity in property investments and the funds management platform, This reflects higher transaction volumes and equity flows from existing and new investors, the analyst details.

FY26 guidance reflects around 17% y/y EPS growth and does not incorporate performance fees, which have additional upside earnings potential.

Citi notes no new FUM or transaction updates were offered.

The stock remains Buy rated, target $26.10, with earnings upgrades seen likely.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $22.16 Difference: $3.94
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.34, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHN as Neutral (3) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Chalice Mining rises to $2.00 from $1.85. Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.25
If CHN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 61.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi sees positive implications for Collins Foods ahead of its 1H26 earnings (December 2) from strong updates from Inghams Group ((ING)) and AmRest.

The broker notes Inghams reported an acceleration in Australian QSR volumes to 8.6% early in FY26, a strong signal for Collins as a key customer. This suggests consensus expectations for KFC Australia same-store sales growth of 2.1% in 1H26 may be conservative, with Collins already reporting 2.3%.

Chicken cost inflation appears manageable, with Inghams’ selling prices up only 1.5% vs FY25 run-rate, the broker highlights.

AmRest’s improving Germany sales, up 6% in 3Q25, support Collins' planned KFC expansion in that market, indicating a healthier underlying consumer.

Buy. Target price $13.07.

Target price is $13.07 Current Price is $10.77 Difference: $2.3
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Evolution Mining rises to $10.70 from $9.70. Sell retained.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.95, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Genesis Minerals rises to $8.50 from $8.05. Buy retained.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.35 Difference: $2.15
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel has offered $0.90/share to acquire Webjet Group ((WJL)), valuing the deal at $353m and requiring an additional $292m payment for the remaining shares. The company currently holds 17.27% of Webjet Group.

Shaw and Partners assume around $200m of this would be funded with debt. The broker reckons expected benefits include revenue synergies from cross-selling and cost synergies of roughly $6.6m.

The broker's analysis suggests the deal could lift Helloworld's EPS by 10-15% pre-synergies, with upside if more cash and less debt are used.

Key hurdles include BGH Capital and Ariadne, together owning 17.1%, though Helloworld has due diligence access, and a combination is likely more value-accretive.

No changes to forecasts or rating for now. Buy with unchanged $2.75 target.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.97
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as Outperform (1) -

HMC Capital’s outlook is improving, assesses Macquarie, as FY26 pre-tax OEPS guidance of at least 40c is re-affirmed and key strategic concerns begin to clear.

The REIT is viewed as undervalued relative to its fund-management potential, despite conservative growth assumptions.

The broker sees progress on Healthscope, data-centres and US asset sell-downs, and third-party capital partnerships as central to restoring confidence.

The analyst highlights the Neoen process as well-progressed, with an independent valuation materially above cost supporting the de-gearing pathway.

Outperform rating and target of $4.90, following a period of research restriction.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.91
If HMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 58.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

James Hardie Industries is the highest quality building products business on ASX, Morgans asserts, upgrading the stock to Buy from Accumulate.

Market conditions are more stable and inventory levels have normalised. Hence the company's upgrade of full-year guidance, with FY26 adjusted EBITDA increasing 11% to US$1.20-1.25bn.

The broker found the outlook incrementally more positive than previously anticipated and envisages upside from both earnings and an undemanding P/E ratio. Target is reduced to $35.50 from $38.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $8.59
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.15, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

James Hardie Industries upgraded its FY26 operating earnings guidance, citing more stable markets and normalised inventory, Ord Minnett notes. September quarter results were in line with expectations.

The broker believes guidance may still be conservative given expected price increases, easing input costs, Azek’s stronger earnings trajectory, and its view that declines in Siding and Trim volumes are unlikely.

The broker raised FY26 EBITDA forecast to US$1.26bn, slightly above the upgraded company guidance. EPS estimates rise 19.6% for FY26 and 17.4% for FY27, supported by lower D&A, stronger North America performance and improved decking earnings.

Target lifted to $32 from $31. Hold remains due to concerns over US housing, governance issues, lawsuits, asbestos obligations and management credibility.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $5.09
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.15, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

James Hardie Industries' 2Q26 EBITDA was in line with expectations, with Siding & Trim sales down -3% on weaker US housing demand. On the other hand, Deck, Rail & Accessories (DRA) grew 6% and the Azek integration continues to progress, UBS highlights.

FY26 group EBITDA guidance was upgraded by 11% at midpoint, driven by stronger Siding & Trim sales, margin recovery, and better manufacturing efficiency. The broker, however, remains -4% below guidance on more conservative assumptions on sales and Siding margins.

The broker's forecast for FY26 DRA sales is also below guidance due to lower expected volumes.

Neutral rating remains as the broker sees near-term US housing headwinds, elevated leverage and lower post-Azek ROIC, though long-term structural drivers are seen as favourable.

Target drops to $30.50 from $37.50 on a cut to valuation multiple to 21x from 17x, reflecting de-rating of higher growth peers on a softer US housing outlook.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $3.59
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.15, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Northern Star Resources rises to $29.75 from $27.60. Buy retained.

Target price is $29.75 Current Price is $25.59 Difference: $4.16
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.93, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm announced a slightly higher than consensus FY25 result, Bell Potter observes, with crop protection revenue growth exceeding expectations and topline outperformance by 170bp.

Net operating loss came in at $22.9m versus a loss of -$3.7m in FY24 and the analyst's forecast of -$9.4m. Emerging seed platforms' loss widened to -$53m from -$11m in FY24, including an inventory impairment of -$29m and a loss of around -$20m in omega-3.

Management flagged robust underlying earnings (EBITDA) growth in FY26 under normal conditions, while crop protection earnings continue to advance.

Target price is raised by Bell Potter to $3.60 from $3.55 on the better-than-anticipated debt position into year-end. Buy rating retained. 

The broker tweaks its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts lower by -5% for FY26-27.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $1.23
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Along with an improved outlook on Nufarm following FY25 results, Citi sees upside risks to Omega-3 earnings, easing balance-sheet risks and believes the CEO transition is unlikely to disrupt this positive momentum.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target rises to $2.55 from $2.35.

Summary of Citi's comments post-results and conference call follow:

After the conference call, Citi has an improved outlook on Nufarm. Among the highlights are supportive Crop Protection conditions, margin gains in Omega-3, reduced supplier-finance use, stable fish-oil assumptions, and lower, more focused FY26 R&D.

On first take, the broker pointed to an earnings beat with a positive outlook statement, which it expects would support the shares.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $302.5m were better than expected and within guidance, while margins beat at 8.8% despite more elevated corporate costs versus expectations. Crop protection in North America, Asia and Europe assisted.

Omega-3 and Carinata, the emerging platforms, generated a loss of -$53m at the EBITDA level and net interest expense was above expectations by 10-14%. Net free cash flow was negative -$131m, with Nufarm seeking to generate positive free cash flow in FY26.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.18
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

Nufarm’s FY25 result is broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations, with earnings (EBITDA) 2% ahead and a strong FY26 growth outlook supported by improving agchem and fish-oil pricing.

The broker notes the CEO transition to Rico Christensen.

The decision to retain Seeds is seen as signalling both cyclical timing and limited buyer appetite. The analyst points to an expected $30m earnings uplift in Emerging Seeds as inventory writedowns roll off and Carinata continues to scale.

A clearer path to lower gearing in FY26 is seen as achievable, though past slippage means delivery is critical.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises its target to $2.77 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.4
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The FY25 result from Nufarm may have been weak, albeit slightly above guidance, yet Morgans found the outlook upbeat. Material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage is expected by FY26 and the broker upgrades forecasts.

The seed technologies strategy has also been prioritised and there is now certainty regarding its future.

Pricing tailwinds may provide further upside and a strengthening of the balance sheet should remove previous equity raising concerns, the broker adds.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target raised to $3.20 from $2.60.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.83
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Perseus Mining rises to $6.65 from $6.15. Buy retained.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.38
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMS as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Ramelius Resources rises to $4.20 from $4.00. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.76
If RMS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Regis Resources rises to $8.30 from $7.25. Buy retained.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.47
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

Following Sandfire Resources' announced intent for an 80% earn-in to Havilah Resources' ((HAV)) Kalkaroo project, UBS analysts held a call with CEO Chris Giles to understand its potential.

The broker now believes the project’s scale, existing approvals, and regional potential make it a credible longer-term development candidate. The Kalkaroo’s 2019 study used now-outdated pricing, and converting inferred resources and drilling depth extensions could unlock a larger mine footprint.

The analysts believe the Motheo model may be repeated, though a new definitive feasibility study (DFS) and significant drilling are needed first.

Sell rating. Target $15.55.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $0.25
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Sonic Healthcare re-stated its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance at the AGM for 11% growth in constant currency and pointed to a 45% 1H earnings weighting. This compares with the Citi estimate of 49% and the consensus of 48%.

Both depreciation and interest costs were flagged to be lower than the previous guidance, with depreciation some -50bps lower at the midpoint and interest at the bottom end of the 15-20% range.

In combination, the analyst points to around $100m of pre-tax income to the P&L against both the broker's forecast and consensus, which could add a high-single digit percentage to the net profit forecasts for FY26.

Citi views the 2H earnings skew may temper the share price reaction. Neutral rated. Target $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.49 Difference: $2.51
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.13, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SIG as Initiate Coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage of Sigma Healthcare with a Buy rating and $3.40 target price.

The analyst reckons the outlook for Chemist Warehouse's like-for-like sales and new store growth is appealing. Chemist Warehouse is expected to contribute over 75% of the broker's forecast sales and be the major driver of other revenue.

Sigma is set to benefit from multiple tailwinds, including an ageing population, increased focus on health, higher-value medicines and a higher spend per customer in health and beauty.

New store openings of 33 are anticipated to be maintained, meeting its historical average, boosted by franchisor support, acquisitions and overseas expansion, possibly including new markets.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.48
If SIG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TNE as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

The FY25 result from TechnologyOne was largely in line and Morgans asserts the negative share price reaction appears to be driven by softer-than-expected rates of return.

The main risk is a transition from consulting to recurring revenue/SaaS and the short-term drag on profitability, the broker observes, although given the company's history this appears unlikely to materialise.

Traction within the UK business continues to accelerate with management indicating the business is now benefiting from new customers and a move further upstream to larger local government and university business.

The broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and reduces the target to $34.50 from $43.50.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $29.27 Difference: $5.23
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.83, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TSO as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans updates its modelling for Tesoro Gold, adjusting its valuation and cash position, asserting it remains the top gold pick in the Americas amid robust production and potential in the resource.

The stock still appears cheap relative to peers on an EV/resource base and a Speculative Buy rating is retained.

The flagship Ternera deposit is the first IRGS gold system discovered in Chile and the broker observes the discovery of a new mineral province often drives significant economic value. Target is raised to $0.32 from $0.27.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.258
If TSO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 416% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in October.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

UBS' global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in 1H2026. The analysts lifted gold price forecasts by 34% for 2026, 32% for 2027 and 33% for 2028.

This has resulted in a 5-15% increase in the target price for gold stocks under its coverage. Earnings forecasts for the next three years are up by 30-60%, split between growth and capital-return strategies depending on their portfolio maturity.

Gold remains under-owned, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation, the analysts believe.

Cost (AISC) is expected to average $2,500/oz in the coming years versus $1,750/oz in FY22, with the higher gold price providing margin support.

Target price for Vault Minerals rises to $1.00 from $0.90. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.225
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett revised its model for Wesfarmers after sharp increases in its lithium price forecasts based on stronger EV and ESS battery demand.

The outcome is an increase in the valuation of the company's 50% stake in Covalent Lithium to $1.9bn from $1.7bn, with FY26 JV EBIT losses now expected to be about half previous estimates.

The broker's EBIT forecasts for the Chemical, Energy and Fertiliser division (WESCEF) increases 18.4% for FY26 and 77.3% for FY27, lifting group EPS by 1.6% for FY26 and 8.1% for FY27.

Target rises to $78 from $77. Rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten, following share price fall in the last month.

Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $79.97 Difference: minus $1.97 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $86.63, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WJL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Webjet Group's 1H26 earnings announcement was upstaged by a takeover proposal from Helloworld Travel ((HLO)). The non-binding offer is for 90c/share.

With two interested bidders, the broker recommends staying and letting the takeover process unfold, believing full value is above 90c/share.

On the 1H26 earnings, the broker notes the 2c dividend and postponement of $25m buyback. The higher cash position will provide options for buyback, 100% dividend payout or capital returns, in the broker's opinion.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -28% and FY27 by -26% on gift accounting revisions and softer trading conditions. 

Target cut to $1.15 from $1.37. Buy maintained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.27
If WJL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources