Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Sell (5) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The target for 29Metals remains unchanged at 25c. Citi retains a Sell rating.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A4N as Outperform (1) -

The final investment decision for Sapphire Phase B has been delayed until 1H25 to allow for more economic analysis of the growth pathways for units, Macquarie states.

Management's decision follows interactions with semiconductor end-users, considering sapphire as a substrate for next-generation power semiconductors.

The broker views the announcement as not entirely unexpected and continues to estimate full production of fifty units by the end of FY30.

At full production in FY30, Macquarie estimates sapphire will contribute around 12% of Alpha HPA's earnings. The analyst adjusts earnings for a lower Australian dollar and higher alumina prices.

The broker's EPS forecasts are lowered by -15% in FY25 and -186% in FY26.

Macquarie rates the stock Outperform, with its target price raised to $1.43 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.445
If A4N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

For both BHP Group and Rio Tinto, the lower Australian dollar forecast is nearly offset by weaker near-term US dollar base metals prices, explains the broker.

The $46 target and Buy rating for BHP Group are maintained.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $42.00 Difference: $4
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.55, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi raises its target for Beach Energy to $1.20 from $1.10 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell after the analyst returned from a Waitsia site visit with a capex estimate viewed as less onerous than before. Management reaffirmed capex guidance for FY25.

The broker attributes the upgraded rating to the recent share price decline.

Citi notes a headcount reduction of over -30% has already been achieved, and the business is progressing toward its less than $30/boe free cash flow (FCF) breakeven target.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett feels execution risks at Beach Energy's Waitsia project have been significantly reduced, following a site visit by the analyst to the Perth Basin. An improvement in the asset’s output capacity is expected to result in a longer productive life.

Helping boost shareholder returns, the broker highlights a "very appealing" free cash flow yield of more than 26% from FY26 out to FY30. The target is raised to $1.80 from $1.65 and the buy rating is reiterated.

Ord Minnett's dividend yield forecasts are running at 8% and 18% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, well ahead of the consensus forecasts.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.585
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Champion Iron's iron ore concentrate train load-out facility at Bloom Lake has experienced a breakdown, Bell Potter highlights, expected to affect concentrate sales.

Management anticipates normal shipping will restart in a few days. The breakdown occurred on December 3 and is expected to impact shipments for two weeks or approximately 15% of the current quarter.

In the lead-up to Chinese New Year, the broker sees seasonal upside potential for iron ore prices. The company is expected to benefit from maturing higher-grade concentrate markets.

Bell Potter lowers earnings by -10% for FY25, with no change to FY26 estimates.

Target price remains at $7.10, with the Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.99
If CIA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The target for Champion Iron rises to $7.40 from $6.80. Buy.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $1.29
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSC as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage on Capstone Copper with a Buy rating, citing a standout production growth pipeline compared to ASX-listed peers and strategic asset locations with a substantial resource base. A $13.60 target is set.

The broker maintains a medium-term bullish outlook on copper, underpinned by demand growth driven by decarbonisation.

Citi highlights Capstone’s exploration opportunities and growth options, including Mantoverde P2, Mantos Blancos P2, Santo Domingo, and the Pinto Valley consolidation.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $10.58 Difference: $3.02
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.87, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The target for Deterra Royalties rises to $4.20 from $4.10. Neutral.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.26
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The target for Fortescue rises to $21 from $19.40. Neutral.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.10 Difference: $0.9
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.59, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the latest ABS Arrivals and Departures data for October "bodes well" for Helloworld Travel.

Arrivals in October rose 11.3% on the previous year, and total departures in October advanced 12.2% on the same period in 2023.

Visitors from NZ, China, and the UK represented the largest sources of arrivals, with nearly 40k international students arriving in October.

The Buy rating and high-risk classification are retained as the stock continues to trade at a discount to peers. Target price remains at $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $1.51
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 44.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes HMC Capital, now in its harvesting phase after establishing all five targeted verticals, could grow assets under management (AUM) to $30-50bn over the next three to five years. Management is targeting $50bn.

The broker raises its target to $12.98 from $10.35, incorporating the establishment of the $4bn DigiCo vehicle, which is underwritten and expected to boost fee-generating AUM by the same amount by June 2025. Around $60m in establishment fees is also included.

Under the broker’s bull case scenario, the share price could rise to $24.40, assuming $45bn AUM by FY29.

Target price is $12.98 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $1.28
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting downside of -27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie delivers some Christmas cheer with three trading ideas.

The broker believes there is value in Iluka Resources on a sum-of-the-parts basis across its three divisions: mineral sands, rare earths project, and Deterra Royalties ((DRR)).

The valuation estimate stands at $2.8bn, including consensus estimates for mineral sands, 20% of Deterra at spot market cap, and the Eneabba stockpile valued at $0.6bn. This suggests approximately 30% upside in the share price.

Including Eneabba, with the majority of value attributed to non-rare earth components, the potential upside exceeds 70% in the share price.

The $7.10 target price and Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $1.94
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett feels the sharp sell-down in Iluka Resources share price is overdone, following the expected decision by management to build the Eneabba REO refinery.

Addressing investor concerns, the analysts note the technology to commission REO refineries is now better understood.

The broker highlights Iluka can produce magnet mixes with attractive REO proportions, which should be in high demand given China is the only other supplier of Highly Rare Earth Oxides (HREOs).

The target falls to $6.00 from $6.30. Buy.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.84
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie delivers some Christmas cheer with three trading ideas.

Rio Tinto ((RIO)) announced an agreement to acquire Arcadium Lithium in a cash transaction valued at US$5.85 per share, or US$6.7bn.

The analyst notes the Arcadium share price continues to trade at an -8% discount to the takeover price. January 20 is viewed as a key date for the transaction, with RIO management confident in securing approval despite Chinalco's shareholding in Rio Tinto.

Neutral rating maintained with an $8.70 target price.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.04 Difference: $0.66
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Liontown Resources' largest and first spodumene concentrate shipment is expected to depart Port Geraldton on December 11 for funding partner LG Energy Solution.

For the three months to October 31, Bell Potter estimates spodumene sales will reach nearly 90kt, including this shipment of approximately 33kwmt, of which 11wmt is going to LG. This suggests the ramp-up of Kathleen Valley is progressing well, the analyst states.

Including actions taken by Liontown, the broker suggests recent supply cuts from Australian producers have deferred around -50kt of lithium carbonate equivalent from the market, or approximately -4% of global supply.

Speculative Buy rating and $1.40 target price unchanged.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.8
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.80, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the medium-term backdrop remains favourable for residential developers, though potential near-term pressure may arise from deferred RBA interest rate cuts.

Affordability remains a key challenge, according to the analysts, who prefer residential names with exposure to affordable and lower-priced housing.

For Mirvac Group, the target price falls to $2.20 from $2.25. Citi retains a Neutral rating, noting the company's MPC business provides affordable housing exposure, but around 50% of revenue comes from higher-priced apartments.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.12
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes recent APRA profit data indicating strong industry performance will address investor concerns regarding the profitability of Australian health insurance at Medibank Private.

The analyst highlights the September quarter revenue and profit figures were significantly stronger than APRA's earlier hospital claims statistics for September, with industry profit after tax up by 64% year-on-year.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating with a $3.80 target for Medibank Private. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.02
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley forecasts the sale of the remaining -20% stake in MLC Life Insurance for $500m will not materially impact National Australia Bank's cash earnings but will boost its CET1 ratio by approximately 10bps.

The deal is expected to complete in the second half of 2025.

The broker’s estimates include an assumption of an additional $3bn in buyback announcements.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating with a $38.40 target and an In-Line industry view.

Target price is $38.40 Current Price is $37.59 Difference: $0.81
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.87, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The broker's target for New Hope rises to $5.50 from $5.00 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.52
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes recent APRA profit data indicating strong industry performance will address investor concerns regarding the profitability of Australian health insurance, particularly at nib Holdings.

The analyst highlights the September quarter revenue and profit figures were significantly stronger than APRA's earlier hospital claims statistics for September, with industry profit after tax up by 64% year-on-year.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating with a $6.40 target for nib Holdings. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $0.85
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners adjusts Retail Food's target price to $4 from 10c following the 40-to-1 share consolidation and reduced shares on issue.

There is no change to the investment proposition for the company, with the analyst believing FY26 will be a "break-out year" for Retail Food, with expectations of 20% earnings growth.

The broker highlights growth from new acquisition CIBO Espresso, as well as Beefy's growth and store expansion, along with a new channel for the Donut King business.

On November 12, Rigaud Pty Limited announced a 19.9% stake in the company, linked to United Petroleum, which Shaw and Partners believes has an interest in Retail Food's coffee and pie assets.

Buy rating retained with a $4 target price.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $3.928
If RFG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 5456% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Citi recommends investors in Region Group remain patient until inflation and interest rates ease throughout 2025, creating a more favourable environment for earnings growth.

The broker observes the group's December valuation update indicates cap rates were largely stable at 6.08% during the first half of FY25.

Stable valuations are underpinning the discount to net tangible assets (NTA), according to the analysts, and signal a potential turn in the cap rate cycle.

Citi retains a Buy rating with a target price of $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.44
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

For both BHP Group and Rio Tinto, the lower Australian dollar forecast is nearly offset by weaker near-term US dollar base metals prices, explains the broker.

For Rio Tinto, the target rises to $134 from $123. Neutral.

Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $123.81 Difference: $10.19
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.00, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

For South32, the $3.90 target is unchanged, but the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy on lower base metal price forecasts.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.38
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.99, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The $10.50 target for Sandfire Resources and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.72, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the medium-term backdrop remains favourable for residential developers, though potential near-term pressure may arise from deferred RBA interest rate cuts.

Affordability remains a key challenge, according to the analysts, who prefer residential names with exposure to affordable and lower-priced housing.

Stockland is the broker's key Buy idea, given exposure to affordable residential. The target falls to $5.80 from $6.00. 

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.72
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

For Stanmore Resources, the $3.40 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.22
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXE as Buy (1) -

In addition to Southern Cross Electrical Engineering's record order book of $720m, the company has secured several contracts valued at approximately $125m across the data centre, commercial, manufacturing, resources, and water sectors, Shaw and Partners observes.

The broker believes the diversity of contracts across sectors reflects the quality of the company's services and experience.

The Buy, High Risk rating, and $2.10 target price are maintained. No changes to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.585
If SXE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie delivers some Christmas cheer with three trading ideas.

At current share prices, Piedmont Lithium (PLL) trades at an implied premium of 13% to Sayona Mining, which is at a -2% discount. The broker expects the share prices to converge to reflect the 50:50 merger ratio as the transaction progresses.

An Outperform rating with a 4c target price is retained.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.009
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TTT as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the adoption of SAE International's cold spray additive manufacturing specification, AMS 7057, which is based on Titomic's Kinetic Fusion technology and establishes AMS 7057 as a global benchmark for cold sprays.

The analyst notes SAE certification is a set of standards used across the aerospace and automotive industries globally and enhances Titomic's competitive edge.

Buy, High Risk rating, and 30c target price are unchanged.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.11
If TTT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Viva Leisure has purchased a 25% stake for -$17m in the Australian master franchisee of World Gym, and three of its corporate sites, located at Stafford and Underwood in Brisbane and Coomera on the Gold Coast.

Management is now guiding to an annualised revenue run rate of more than $224m from the final quarter of FY25, up from actual revenue of $164m in FY24, broadly in line with Ord Minnett's FY26 forecast for $224m.

The target falls to $2.90 from $3.20 on the broker's higher forecasts for depreciation and amortisation. Buy.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $1.475
If VVA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Citi raises target prices across its coverage of the A&NZ Metals and Mining sector, driven by weaker Australian dollar forecasts.

Earnings forecasts for base metal stocks are lowered due to base metals price revisions, despite currency tailwinds, while coal and iron ore pure plays have seen earnings benefit from the currency changes, according to the analysts.

The broker sees the greatest 12-month upside in uranium and NdPr and the greatest downside in alumina and Brent oil from current prices. Citi remains neutral on bulk pricing due to likely demand softness.

The target for Whitehaven Coal rises to $8.30 from $8.00. Buy.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $1.72
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources