Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Morgans has updated forecasts for Ai-Media Technologies to incorporate staff changes and a second round of redundancies in 2H25.

The broker also updated share-based payment forecasts to reflect the company's long-term incentive plan.

Add. Target unchanged at $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.43
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

APA Group hosted a roundtable, Macquarie notes the ownership of gas-powered generation assets seems more likely, with sites in WA and VIC, although the most probable opportunity is with government-owned generators, such as Brigalow's 400MW open cycle gas turbine.

The group is considering offering storage pipeline, the broker explains, with final investment decision planned for 2025.

Management outlined a positive take on the balance sheet, with asset recycling to be used to fund opportunities, including -$600m p.a. in capex.

There are no changes to the analyst's earnings forecasts. Outperform rating and $8.14 target price retained.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's FY25 revenue slightly beat the company's own guidance, with currency tailwind as one of the factors, though 2H revenues also jumped materially vs 1H.

Bell Potter notes costs are well-controlled and in line with revenue growth. The company expects FY26 revenue of NZ$92-100m, which the broker believes is conservative, but still lowered its forecast to NZ$103m from NZ$109m.

The analyst also expects FY26 EBITDA to be above the company's guidance. Buy. Target unchanged at 85c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.32
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery delivered FY25 results at the top end of guidance, with revenue of NZ$84.7m and normalised earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$4.2m, both slightly ahead of Morgans' expectations.

Guidance for FY26 was set conservatively, believes the broker, with revenue of NZ$92-100m and EBITDA of NZ$5-8m, below consensus but considered achievable by the analysts.

Morgans highlights Myriad was a standout performer in FY25, with 38% growth, and is expected to drive profitability with more than 25% growth forecast for FY26. The broker models a more bullish 45% rise.

R&D spend continues to decline as a proportion of revenue, now at 13%, and over 100 peer-reviewed studies have validated the ECM platform (designed to promote soft tissue repair and regeneration).

Morgans has downgraded FY26-28 earnings forecasts and cut its target to 77c from 93c after the analysts revise down the FY26 forecast to sit at the upper end of the guidance range.

Morgans retains a Speculative Buy rating, citing attractive relative valuation and potential for M&A in the wound care space.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.24
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Add (1) -

Morgans has factored in the acquisition of Kitepipe in March 2025 and proposed acquisition of DalRae in June 2025 into Atturra's forecasts. 

The broker expects the two acquisitions will add $1.5m annualised to EBITDA.

Revenue forecasts for FY26-27 lifted by 5% and 4%, respectively.

Add. Target unchanged at $1 as the broker also accounted for lower share count in the forecasts due to share buybacks.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.15
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Citi switches its uranium stock preference to Paladin Energy ((PDN)) from Boss Energy while retaining a Buy rating on both stocks.

The broker notes Boss has outperformed Paladin by over 70% since December due to a low-cost profile and good execution, but much of the good news appears priced in at current levels.

Citi notes a rise in the U3O8 spot price by US$7/lb in the last two months to around US$71.50/lb, with the long-term price steady at US$80/lb, compared to a fall in the enrichment price to US$69/lb from US$80/lb, which suggests to the analyst many investors are giving up on the trade.

Normally, when the ratio of U3O8 to SWU (the work effort required to enrich uranium) reaches current levels around 0.36 from 0.35 last month, this marks an inflection point followed by higher U3O8 prices, the analyst explains.

Target price rises to $4.60 from $3.30 due to lower long term costs and higher resource valuation. Buy.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.62
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Catapult International's FY25 revenue came in line with consensus, but management EBITDA beat consensus by 13%.

Free cash flow also outperformed with a 10% beat vs consensus. Three straight quarters of revenue growth and margin expansion have lifted the broker's conviction in the operating leverage. 

The broker is forecasting 3-year compounded annual revenue growth of 16% on a growing target addressable market and continued penetration. EBITDA margin is forecast to expand to 24% by FY27 from 9% in FY25.

Overweight. Target rises to $6.00 from $4.45.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $0.74
If CAT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Champion Iron's FY25 EBITDA of CA$471m beat Bell Potter's forecast of CA$461m, but net profit fell slightly short. The final dividend was higher than expected.

Unit costs were higher mainly due to weaker sales volumes and higher processing costs, prompting the broker to lift the unit cost outlook for FY26-27.

EPS forecast for FY26 was lowered by -13% and by -17% for FY27. The broker expects higher grade production in 2026 to support price realisation and earnings.

Buy. Target cut to $5.80 from $6.20.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $1.53
If CIA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Champion Iron reported FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) below forecasts by -1%, though meeting consensus expectations.

Fourth quarter gross average realised price of US$111.8/t was below the price index of US$116.9/t, as the 2.7mt of iron ore remained subject to adjustments on price.

Net income came in below the broker's forecast and -7% lower than consensus, due to higher D&S and net interest expenses.

The upgrade of Bloom Lake's capacity to direct reduction-quality pellet feed of 69% Fe is going as planned, with commissioning flagged for the fourth quarter of 2025, the broker explains.

Citi lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -14% for 2026 and -3% for 2027. No change to Buy rating and $7.30 target price.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $3.03
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron reported FY25 result with revenue and earnings (EBITDA) in line with Macquarie's expectations. EPS was slightly below estimate due to higher depreciation and net interest charges.

The analyst highlights investing cash flow came in above operating cash flow, and free cash flow was -CAD312m, some -CAD50m lower than consensus. At the end of March, the company had cash of CAD117m with debt of CAD707m.

A final dividend per share of CA1c was above forecast due to a higher payout ratio and 11% in excess of consensus.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates and retains an Outperform rating and $6.10 target price.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $1.83
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie explains at current share price levels Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) and Capstone Copper are implying Cu price of US$3.70/lb and US$3.58/lb, respectively, below the spot copper price by -18% and -22%.

Capstone is the broker's preferred copper exposure due to the robust organic growth pipeline and the upcoming Mantoverde optimisation permitting approval for a large-scale expansion, expected mid-2025.

Two other positive tailwinds are an acceleration in M&A activity in the base metals sector and the impact of seismic activity on Ivanhoe Mines' 520t-580t Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a withdrawal of guidance for 2025 which will impact on global copper supply.

Outperform rated with $11.60 target price.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $2.91
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.37, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Add (1) -

Morgans marks to market earnings forecast for stocks under coverage in financial services after market moves across April and May.

For the 4Q FY25 year-to-date, the broker notes the ASX200 is up circa 7.1% versus the MSCI World in AUD increase of 3.5%, the S&P500 increase of 5.5%, the FTSE increase of 2.3%, and AUDUSD is up by 3.1%.

After making a June-25 quarter net inflow assumption of $2bn for GQG Partners, the analysts' target rises to $2.65 from $2.63. Add.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.56
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -

Morgans marks to market earnings forecast for stocks under coverage in financial services after market moves across April and May.

For the 4Q FY25 year-to-date, the broker notes the ASX200 is up circa 7.1% versus the MSCI World in AUD increase of 3.5%, the S&P500 increase of 5.5%, the FTSE increase of 2.3%, and AUDUSD is up by 3.1%.

The target for Hub24 rises to $83.10 from $73.80. Hold maintained. The broker assumes a June-25 quarter net inflow of $5.15bn.

Target price is $83.10 Current Price is $82.91 Difference: $0.19
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.00, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IKE as Buy (1) -

With some FY25 metrics already announced, the key new info in ikeGPS Group's results was adjusted EBITDA loss of -NZ$6.1m, which improved from -NZ$9.8m the year before, on strong revenue and modest expense growth. 

Shaw and Partners estimates cash costs fell -6% y/y due to restructuring. The company reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance for over 35% growth and is targeting EBITDA breakeven in 2H26.

No impact from global tariffs expected. The analyst made minor revisions, mainly to factor in lower cost growth.

Buy. Target lifts to $1.20 from $1.10 on valuation roll-forward and slightly higher cashflow forecasts.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.3
If IKE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPG as Buy (1) -

IPD Group's FY25 guidance range for both EBITDA and EBIT were lower than Bell Potter's previous forecasts. 

The broker observes the expected earnings decline comes despite revenue growth and is due to larger, complex orders, which put pressure on gross margins due to their competitive nature. An offset to this is greater operational efficiency.

The broker cut gross margin forecast for FY25 to 34.5% from 35.2%, and to 33.9% in FY26 from 35.0%. EBIT forecast for FY25-26 is lowered by -5% and -7%, respectively.

Buy. Target cut to $4.10 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.96
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Add (1) -

Morgans marks to market earnings forecast for stocks under coverage in financial services after market moves across April and May.

For the 4Q FY25 year-to-date, the broker notes the ASX200 is up circa 7.1% versus the MSCI World in AUD increase of 3.5%, the S&P500 increase of 5.5%, the FTSE increase of 2.3%, and AUDUSD is up by 3.1%.

The target for Iress rises to $10.15 from $10.05. Add maintained. The analyst factors into forecasts the Quanthouse divestment in late 2025, reducing forecast FY25 net debt to around $37m.

The broker views the company's earnings base as more defendable and free cash flow is improving. Longer-term corporate appeal is also noted.

Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $1.54
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.59, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

Morgans trimmed forecasts for Jumbo Interactive based on recent soft jackpot trends and following revision in digital penetration trends.

FY25-26 revenue forecasts downgraded by -2.4% and -1.4%, respectively, while EBITDA forecasts cut on a lower margin assumption.

Add. Target cut to $11.20 from $13.60.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $10.11 Difference: $1.09
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.52, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi confirms post a site visit to Onslow that the analyst is impressed by what Mineral Resources has constructed since mid-2023, including the progress achieved since the last visit in late 2023.

The aim of the trip was to mitigate concerns around the road-trains issues, with 'attendees' confirming that was not an area of expertise. On balance, the road trains didn't raise any "red flags", the analyst states.

The company downgraded Onslow tonnage to 7.8–8mt by -0.7mt from 10.5–11.7mt originally, and Onslow is three months behind schedule due to weather and road problems.

Citi believes Mineral Resources will sell its stake of the Northern Gateway Trust in FY26. No change to its target price of $20, with peak debt assumed in 2H25 at $5.5bn. Neutral rated.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $22.72 Difference: minus $2.72 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.94, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett remains confident in Mineral Resources’ ability to bring its Onslow iron ore project to full capacity despite recent operational setbacks.

The company downgraded FY25 volume guidance due to a shortage of contractor haulage and flagged a -9% worsening for unit costs.

Ord Minnett now assumes the 35mtpa nameplate capacity will be reached by end-FY26, though earlier ramp-up is possible if port bottlenecks are resolved.

A potential -$150-200m capex investment could lift capacity to 40mtpa, adding $2.00 per share in value, highlights the analyst.

The target price is reduced to $31.00 from $32.00. Despite near-term pressures, Ord Minnett expects free cash flow to turn positive in 2H of 2025 and retains a Buy rating on the stock.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $22.72 Difference: $8.28
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.94, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MP1 as Add (1) -

Morgans made minor adjustments to forecasts for Megaport, resulting in a 2% lift to underlying EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27. 

The broker sees upside risk from AUD weakness, noting guidance was based on AUD/USD of $0.668 vs $0.644 currently.

Add. Target price increases to $15.50 from $14.00 on valuation roll-forward by 12 months.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.95 Difference: $1.55
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.47, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Morgans marks to market earnings forecast for stocks under coverage in financial services after market moves across April and May.

For the 4Q FY25 year-to-date, the broker notes the ASX200 is up circa 7.1% versus the MSCI World in AUD increase of 3.5%, the S&P500 increase of 5.5%, the FTSE increase of 2.3%, and AUDUSD is up by 3.1%.

The target for Netwealth Group rises to $31 from $29. Hold maintained. The broker assumes a June-25 quarter net inflow of $4.4bn.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $31.77 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.46, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OCL as Hold (3) -

Morgans thinks Objective Corp may be tracking behind its 15% annual recurring revenue growth target for FY25, but also notes the company's contract renewal cycle is weighted to the last two months.

No material changes to forecasts.

Hold. Target lifted to $20.50 from $16.75 on valuation roll-forward and higher multiple.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.98 Difference: $1.52
If OCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.33, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi switches the uranium stock preference to Paladin Energy from Boss Energy ((BOE)) while retaining a Buy rating on both stocks.

The broker notes Boss has outperformed Paladin by over 70% since December due to a low-cost profile and good execution, but much of the good news appears priced in at current levels.

Citi notes a rise in the U3O8 spot price by US$7/lb in the last two months to around US$71.50/lb, with the long-term price steady at US$80/lb, compared to a fall in the enrichment price to US$69/lb from US$80/lb, which suggests to the analyst many investors are giving up on the trade.

Normally, when the ratio of U3O8 to SWU (the work effort required to enrich uranium) reaches current levels around 0.36 from 0.35 last month, this marks an inflection point followed by higher U3O8 prices, the analyst explains.

Target price slips to $10.10 from $10.20. Buy rated.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: $3.96
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.49, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Morgans marks to market earnings forecast for stocks under coverage in financial services after market moves across April and May.

The broker notes the ASX200 is up circa 7.1% versus the MSCI World in AUD increase of 3.5%, the S&P500 increase of 5.5%, the FTSE increase of 2.3%, and AUDUSD is up by 3.1% for 4Q FY25 year-to-date.

The target for Pinnacle Investment Management remains at $23.80. Add maintained.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $20.07 Difference: $3.73
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.80, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SDR as Hold (3) -

Morgans lowered SiteMinder's FY25 revenue forecast by -1.3% following a trading update by the company at a recent conference.

The downgrade reflects weak US travel in 2H25 that impacted its transaction and new Smart Distribution product. FY26-27 revenue forecasts also cut by -2.9% and -6.2%, respectively, on lower Smart Platform contributions.

Hold. Target cut to $4.90 from $6.40.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.28
If SDR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie explains at current share price levels Sandfire Resources and Capstone Copper ((CSC)) are implying Cu price of US$3.70/lb and US$3.58/lb, respectively, below the spot copper price by -18% and -22%.

Capstone is the broker's preferred copper exposure due to the robust organic growth pipeline and the upcoming Mantoverde optimisation permitting approval for a large-scale expansion, expected mid-2025.

Two other positive tailwinds are an acceleration in M&A activity in the base metals sector and the impact of seismic activity on Ivanhoe Mines' 520t-580t Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a withdrawal of guidance for 2025 which will impact on global copper supply.

Neutral rated with $11.50 target price.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests delivered a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result, with underlying profit of $26.6m beating the broker’s $13.0m forecast, helped by earlier crop earnings recognition.

Revenue rose 54% year-on-year to $104.5m and earnings (EBITDA) lifted 210% to $57.9m, reflecting 75% crop accounting and an almond price of $10.35/kg, both in line with the broker's expectations.

Net debt fell to $168.2m from $237.9m in 1H24, while cash outflow narrowed to -$9.1m.

FY25 crop guidance remains unchanged at 24,000-26,500t and cost guidance of $6.77/kg is steady.

The broker lifts its target price to $6.05 from $5.80 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.54
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests delivered a strong 1H FY25 result, assesses Ord Minnett, with earnings (EBITDA) surging 226% year-on-year to $60.7m, driven by higher almond prices.

Management maintained FY25 guidance of $10.35/kg, representing a 35% increase on FY24, and confirmed production volumes of 24,000-26,500mt, though third-party volumes are expected to be lower than FY24.

Revenue of $104.5m was up 54% and beat Ord Minnett’s expectations by 33%, while profit reached $28.7m versus a loss a year earlier.

Despite minor issues including past accounting adjustments, the result was ahead of the broker's forecasts at the EBITDA level.

Target price increases to $5.65 from $5.60 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.14
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -

Morgans lifted Superloop's FY26-27 revenue forecasts to account for a rise in NBN prices based on information on the company's website.

The broker also updated modelling to account for a more positive view on Smart Communities. The analyst notes the company has balance sheet optionality and expects it to favour M&A over capital return.

M&A is therefore an upside risk to earnings. Add. Target lifted to $3.00 from $2.60.

The company remains the broker's top pick among telcos.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.3
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Santana Minerals' Bendigo-Ophir gold project in New Zealand is progressing well, believes Bell Potter, with a recent site visit by the analysts reinforcing its status as one of the ASX’s most near-term gold development opportunities.

The project benefits from strong infrastructure including cheap hydroelectric power, fresh water access, and sealed road proximity, as well as good availability of skilled labour, highlights the broker.

Management aims to submit approvals by 30 June 2025, with hopes for Fast Track approval by year-end, both viewed as significant upcoming catalysts by Bell Potter.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy rating and $1.30 target.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.76
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Buy (1) -

SmartPay's FY25 result was soft on cashflow though broadly in line with Bell Potter's revenue forecasts.

Australian acquiring revenue grew 8% year-on-year to NZ$85.6m, supported by an 11% increase in installed terminals, but lower take rates weighed on margins, explain the analysts.

Total revenue of NZ$105.5m was -3% below the broker’s forecast, while earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$18.4m missed by -8% due to elevated acquisition costs and flat second-half expenses.

Free cash flow was negative on higher capex and contract payments, notes Bell Potter, with net debt increasing to NZ$9.5m, although still well within covenant levels.

Management reiterated guidance to convert a significant portion of New Zealand’s 31,000 installed terminals in FY26, with upgraded ARPU targets of NZ$400/month.

The broker retains a Buy rating and a $1.30 target price, down from $1.33.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.37
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLC as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans cut Lottery Corp's FY25-26 revenue forecasts by -3.1% and -1.1%, respectively, due to weaker jackpot sequencing, mainly in Powerball.

EBIT margin downgraded by -30bps in FY25 and -10bps in FY26.

Target cut to $5.50 from $5.60. Rating downgraded to Hold from Add on recent share price strength.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.13
If TLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TNE as Hold (3) -

Morgans marked to market continued strength in TechnologyOne's peers, lifting the target multiple to 48x from 42x.

As a result, the target price lifts to $43.50 from $36.85. Hold retained.

Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $40.77 Difference: $2.73
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.54, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPG as Hold (3) -

Morgans made upward revisions to TPG Telecom's revenue forecasts for FY25-26, largely reflecting higher NBN prices from 1 July 2025.

The broker sees upside potential if the company achieves its mobile market share growth aspiration.

Hold. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.70 on valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades Web Travel to a Buy, High Risk from Neutral with a higher target price of $6.60 from $5.50, due to a robust trading outlook against a challenging macro backdrop.

The broker is notably upbeat on the strong advances in market share and management's expectations to double profit post-FY25, which was broadly in line with expectations.

Higher conversion and increased sales to existing customers, by some 1300bps, underpinned bookings and total transaction value growth of 20% and 22% respectively, above market growth of 5%. Citi also points to a strong trading update for the first eight weeks of FY26.

The analyst lifts earnings (EBITDA) forecasts slightly for FY26–FY28 by up to 3%, with higher earnings revisions in the outer years due to a higher level of confidence in Web Travel achieving the $10bn top-line FY30 target.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $1.43
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources