Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights the sensitivity of the Aeris Resources share price to changes in the copper price.

The analyst estimates a 5% move in copper equates to an around a 25% change in the share price, up and down, concluding the -36% decline in the share price since May correlates to copper price moves.

The company's unhedged copper exposure remains a key focus for investors and the broker expects a strong finish to FY24, with production anticipated to reach 20.5kt of copper, representing 19% year-on-year growth.

Bell Potter continues to like the stock and retains a Buy rating. Target price unchanged at 30c.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.06
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy (1) -

Australian Vanadium has received a $14.7m payment from the Australian Government under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative, bringing total funds received to $24.5m out of a potential $49m, notes Shaw and Partners.

These funds are earmarked for advancing the Australian Vanadium Project and supporting the domestic vanadium supply chain for the battery market, states the broker.

Shaw and Partners stresses the project remains a globally significant vanadium resource with strong business fundamentals and a long mine life. 

Buy rating and 8c target price retained. No change in forecasts.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.065
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 433% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

The valuation impact for Aurizon Holdings is minimal after Mineral Resources ((MIN)) announced the early closure of the Yilgarn Hub, where Aurizon participated as a hauler.

The equipment Aurizon was using at the hub was old, and already the closure impact was already built into the broker's base-case forecast from FY28 onwards.

May coal volumes were mixed, assesses the broker, with good volumes in Hunter Valley and Blackwater, which are markets the company experiences more leverage to volumes.

The Neutral rating and $3.73 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.1
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the successful equity placement for Antipa Minerals and the drill-for-equity arrangement with commitments received to raise $5.75m 

The raised funds will be used to advance the Minyari Dome Gold-Copper Project, with a maiden resource estimate expected in July 2024, the analyst notes.

 At the end of the March quarter, Antipa Minerals had $5.4m in cash and no debt.

No changes have been made to the analyst's earnings forecasts. Buy rating with 4c target price unchanged. High risk.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.029
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 264% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BKW as Hold (3) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

The Hold rating and $30 target for Brickworks are maintained. Through the cycle, the broker anticipates some upside to the brick businesses, while the real estate business is expected to trade at a more modest discount of around -20%.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $2.81
If BKW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.80, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie slightly raises its oil/LNG price forecasts. The 2024 oil price estimate rises by 1.7% to around US$82/bbl, while LNG forecasts rise due to delays in capacity additions. 

Target prices, however, fall across the broker's oil and gas coverage due to EPS upgrades being offset by increases to risk-free-rates.

The target falls to $1.50 from $1.55 for Beach Energy. Neutral. Macquarie sees scope for value-accretive M&A, though share price outperformance appears unlikely until Waitsia start-up in around six months.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.08
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

The recent AlphaWise 2024 Household Survey by Morgan Stanley has given the analyst insights into consumer shopping intentions and resulted in a more upbeat view on the supermarkets.

The key takeaway is consumers will prioritise essentials and shift back to in-store shopping and price challenges, the broker states, with the results inferring a higher percentage of spending of household goods towards groceries.

On balance like-for-like sales are expected to be better than the analyst's previous forecasts for FY25.

Morgan Stanley adjusts Coles Group earnings forecasts by -0.6% in FY25.

Woolworths ((WOW)) replaces Coles Group as the preferred supermarket exposure.

Equal-weight and target price is lifted to $18.10 from $16.50. Industry view.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $17.17 Difference: $0.93
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.80, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COS as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter revisits the outlook for Cosol ahead of the FY24 results and the increased transparency around the loss of the OK Tedi contract in the early part of the 2H24.

EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25 have been lowered by -4% for each fiscal year, the broker highlights. and this reflects the longer than expected replacment for the OK Tedi contract.

Hold rating retained with a adjusted price target of $1.20 from $1.10 due to a higher valuation being ascribed.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.005
If COS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Following a deep-dive analysis of the global Hemophilia B sector, a US$2bn market, representing some 5% of CSL's annual revenues, Citi's forecast is for CSL's Hemophilia B franchise to grow at CAGR of 5% between FY23-28.

This pace of growth is below CSL management's own projections.

Citi finds the uptake of gene therapy remains uncertain, while competitors such as Sanofi's fitusiran seem to have an easier story to sell, with Pfizer’s marstacimab and Novo’s Alhemo equally vying for market share.

As per the broker, growth of CSL’s Hemophilia franchise is dependent on success of gene therapy Hemgenix, which has been disappointing thus far.

Minuscule downward adjustments have been made to forecasts. Target remains at $305, rating Neutral.

Target price is $305.00 Current Price is $290.74 Difference: $14.26
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $316.73, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Given larger geographic-mix headwinds for Domain Holdings Australia in FY25 and upside risk to medium-term costs, Citi prefers REA Group in the space.

A Buy rating is retained for Domain on valuation appeal, but the target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.85.

The broker's FY25/FY26 EBITDA forecast downgrades for Domain primarily reflect higher cost investment, while profit downgrades also reflect higher D&A given higher capex.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.49
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Citi forecasts an ongoing share price discount to net tangible assets (NTA) for office stocks, at least for the short term.

The broker was commenting after Dexus released a valuation update for the June 2024 reporting period, writing down book values by -$1.3bn, or -9%.

These write downs result in a share price discount to estimated NTA for Dexus of around -22%, excluding the value of the funds management business, note the analysts.

The price target remains at $8.20, alongside a Neutral rating. 

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: $1.77
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

The Elders share price has been languishing since the 1H24 results which Bell Potter questions given management reaffirmed FY24 earnings guidance at the time of the report.

The broker sees the forecasts as achievable on the back of contributions from improving livestock turnover, recent business investments, and stabilising agricultural input prices, supporting earnings growth in second half of FY24 and the first half of FY25.

Earnings forecasts are marginally tweaked. Buy rating and $9.30 target price retained.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.36 Difference: $0.94
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.07, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -

As part of presentations on Northparkes and Cowal, management at Evolution Mining has provided a high level of detail relating to its opex/capex profile to the end of decade, observes Citi.

The Buy rating is unchanged given the analyst sees positive EPS momentum from copper exposure.

The target slips to $4.40 from $4.50 on the broker's adjustments relating to the presentations.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.82
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views the update from Evolution Mining as positive, highlighting the Cowal project, where FY25 to FY29 total cash spend is expected to be around 8% above consensus.

The broker also notes potential for higher gold production in FY25/FY26 driven by a higher-grade underground ramp-up to around 2mt p.a..

Operating costs are guided to a five-year annual average of circa -$310m, well below the broker's forecast at -$412m and consensus at -$452m.

Equally, major capital expenditure is forecast to average around -$200m-$230m annually to FY29, above both consensus and Morgan Stanley estimates.

Overweight rating and $3.90 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.32
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

Yesterday, Growthpoint Properties Australia released a valuation update reflecting a decrease of -4.5% in overall, most notably impacted by office decreases of -6.2%, explains Citi.

Global investor sentiment surrounding office exposures remains challenging, highlights the broker, and this REIT's portfolio is now valued at a 6.47% cap rate, which remains one of the highest in the sector.

The ongoing share price discount to net tangible assets (NTA) for office-related REIT's is likely to continue in the short-term, according to the broker.

The Buy rating and $2.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.22
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGL as Buy (1) -

IVE Group reconfirmed its FY24 guidance with EBITDA projected between $127m-132m and profit after tax between $41-44m.

Bell Potter points to the stronger performance from the 3PL business and brand activations while the catalogue and magazine operations are performing in line.

A softer economic backdrop is impacting on data driven communications and the commercial printing divisions, the broker highlights.

Bell Potter retains existing earnings estimates and is looking for a stronger FY25 earnings performance with the acquisition of an independent creative agency and continued growth prospects in the corporate uniforms business contributing.

Buy rating and $2.70 target remain the same.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.795
If IGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGL as Buy (1) -

Despite the softer economic backdrop, IVE Group has reaffirmed FY24 guidance, but this only meets existing forecasts by UBS and consensus.

Longer-term, the broker believes the company is well placed to leverage existing customer relationships and assets to consolidate adjacencies, which include packaging and an increased focus on content creation.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.695
If IGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JLG as Add (1) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

The Add rating and $7.30 target for Johns Lyng are maintained. While lacking near-term catalysts this company is arguably one of
the higher quality compounders among the peer group, points out the broker.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $1.41
If JLG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie slightly raises its oil/LNG price forecasts. The 2024 oil price estimate rises by 1.7% to around US$82/bbl, while LNG forecasts rise due to delays in capacity additions. 

Target prices, however, fall across the broker's oil and gas coverage due to EPS upgrades being offset by increases to risk-free-rates.

The target falls to $2.45 from $2.50 for Karoon Energy. Neutral. Macquarie believes the company's shares can materially outperform
peers as production trends improve at both assets and the board declares its first dividend at upcoming 1H results.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.79
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 51.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley dissects the earnings model for Lendlease Group to acccount for the strategic restructuring of the business, including the divestment of the overseas operations and a refocus on domestic development and construction sectors.

The analyst highlights the company's focus on Australian developments and construction is strategically sound, though execution risks and an insufficient project pipeline pose challenges, with a complete "earnings hole in FY26" due to an absence of Australian projects.

Earnings forecasts are revised down by -11% for FY24 and -50% for FY25.

The Equal-weight rating and the target price is cut to $6.35 from $7.35. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.98
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.58, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Lovisa Holdings to $32.50 from $27 on higher earnings forecasts due to greater store growth, higher EBIT margins (lower rate of executive compensation) and lower net interest.

As the risk/reward balance is even, in the broker's view, and the share price has been recently strong, a Neutral rating is maintained.

The analyst highlights like-for-like sales growth to start the 2H, undemanding comparatives, a resilient youth customer, and supportive product trends.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $33.27 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.80, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Add (1) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

The Add rating and $5.20 target for Maas Group are maintained. Infrastructure spend in the regions drives job creation and residential housing demand, explains Morgans.

The company's vertically integrated business model allows the business to capture margin through the whole supply chain, highlights the broker, and largely control costs.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $1.26
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Morgans lowers its target for Mineral Resources by -$5.00 to $66.00 following a fresh set of eyes from a new analyst, and recent (but expected) news shipments of iron ore will cease at the Yilgarn Hub. 

Earlier this month, management also announced the -49% sell-down of its Onslow Haul Road for $1.3bn (pre-tax), injecting much needed cash onto the balance sheet, suggests the analyst. A  tolling fee will still be received annually for the life-of-mine.

The broker adjusts mining services earnings forecasts following the Onslow Haul Road sale announcement assuming it completes in the 2H. There has also been an increase in Morgans net debt and corporate overheads valuation.

The Hold rating is maintained with the broker expecting ongoing near-term volatility given weak sentiment surrounding lithium and iron ore markets.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $59.96 Difference: $6.04
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.86, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

As operations at the Yilgarn Hub are largely unviable due to significant upcoming capital costs, Mineral Resources will cease iron ore shipments by the end of 2024.

As per Ord Minnett, the Hub contributes only marginally to the broker's forecasts, thus a $67 target is kept for Mineral Resources. The Hold rating is also maintained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $59.96 Difference: $7.04
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.86, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MRM as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes the revised offer by Cyan Renewables to $2.70 per share for MMA Offshore, which reflects a 3.8% increase on the previous bid.

The board continues to unanimously recommend shareholders vote in favour of the takeover.

The target price is raised to $2.70. Hold rating.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.07
If MRM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

The recent AlphaWise 2024 Household Survey by Morgan Stanley has given the analyst insights into consumer shopping intentions and resulted in a more upbeat view on the supermarkets.

The key takeaway is consumers will prioritise essentials and shift back to in-store shopping and price challenges, the broker states, with the results inferring a higher percentage of spending of household goods towards groceries.

On balance like-for-like sales are expected to be better than the analyst's previous forecasts for FY25.

Morgan Stanley highlights Metcash is due to report FY24 earnings on June 24 and the analyst notes forecasts are in line with consensus.

The target price is lowered to $4.05 from $4.15. Equal-weight unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.21
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Hold (3) -

Free dental checkups will increase after nib Holdings has entered a memorandum of understanding extending a no gap offer to 117 Pacific Smiles dental clinics, explains Ord Minnett. Terms have not been explained and there is no guarantee of a binding agreement.

Pacific Smiles already owns and operates 11 nib-branded clinics where nib members pay no gap. The broker highlights the company's track record of profitably expanding white label partnerships.

The Hold rating and $7.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: $0.47
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.07, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

While Citi remains confident on the medium-term outlook for NextDC, and continues to expect strong bookings in the near-term, one negative for FY25 earnings are rising corporate costs.

These costs include land holding costs and a switch to opex from capex as NextDC moves to cloud-based tools from internally developed systems, explains the analyst.

Management repeated prior comments about seeing larger contract sizes, with both Sydney and Melbourne continuing to drive
demand, but Citi notes contract wins are inherently lumpy and contract signing is taking longer-than-expected.

Target $19.75. Buy.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $17.62 Difference: $2.13
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Citi takes an early look at today's market update by Pilbara Minerals and highlights key points relating to the final investment decision for the P2000 project, which is an expansion project at the Pilgangoora lithium mine in Western Australia.

The project is much bigger than the broker expected, with production greater than the biggest WA gold open cut, and double existing plans.

The existing resource is world class, notes the analyst. A decision is some time off, perhaps mitigating some negative sentiment around the currently oversupplied market for lithium, suggests the broker.

The development could trigger an around -$1.2bn development decision late next year excluding mining costs, according to the broker.

The Sell rating and $3.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.4
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Despite a premium multiple, Citi upgrades its rating for REA Group to Buy from Neutral and raises the target by 15% to $221. It's felt the group can easily flex its cost base, which should support long-term margins.

Further, the broker believes recent product/technology investments will result in strong earnings growth over the medium-to long-term, with potential upside from stronger-than-expected seller and mortgage leads monetisation.

Given larger geographic-mix headwinds for Domain Holdings Australia, Citi prefers REA Group in the space.

Target price is $221.00 Current Price is $190.35 Difference: $30.65
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $192.71, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REH as Reduce (5) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

Under the sub-heading of trade and distribution, Reece remains Reduce-rated by Morgans on valuation due to a subdued outlook for both the A&NZ region and the US. It is considered a high-quality business, with management having a strong track record.

The $22.10 target is unchanged.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $25.80 Difference: minus $3.7 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.37, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Although Shaw and Partners emphasises a direct comparison with Guzman y Gomez ((GYG)) post the first day of trading to Retail Food as a "little absurd", the broker does highlight both companies earn franchise revenue at around 10% of sales.

The broker continues to like Retail Food and retains a Buy rating and 10c target with management's strategic initiatives expected to drive FY26 EBITDA growth of about 9%.

Also, the analyst stresses the company is projected to end FY24 with minimal net debt (excluding leases) and capacity to begin paying dividends with around $50m of franking credits.

Assuming a distribution of half a cent per share by way of dividend in FY26, Shaw and Partners points to the company trading on a 6.7% prospective yield.

The Buy rating and the 10c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.018
If RFG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Add (1) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

The Add rating and $5.25 target for Reliance Worldwide are maintained. The stabilisation in interest rates (with potential for rate cuts) will have a positive impact on demand for the company's products going forward, in the broker's opinion.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.63
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie slightly raises its oil/LNG price forecasts. The 2024 oil price estimate rises by 1.7% to around US$82/bbl, while LNG forecasts rise due to delays in capacity additions. 

Target prices, however, fall across the broker's oil and gas coverage due to EPS upgrades being offset by increases to risk-free-rates.

The higher oil/LNG forecasts drive EPS forecast upgrades for Santos over FY24 and FY25 of 4% and 6%, respectively.

The target falls to $8.90 from $9.20. Outperform.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $1.44
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

As recent management updates suggest a de-risking of earnings, Citi removes the discount to peers previously applied to the valuations for Treasury Americas and Treasury Premium brands (TPB).

Because of this change to valuation, the broker's target rises to $12.95 from $12.40, despite lower earnings forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to reflect lower-than-expected FY25 Penfolds earnings growth guidance.

Earnings forecasts were also negatively impacted by the investment required to build up inventory, which could lead to higher interest costs, explains Citi.

The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $0.52
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

In a sound move, according to Macquarie, Treasury Wine Estates will reinvest in the Penfolds brand over the next couple of years, despite the negative impact on margins.

The broker was commenting after Penfolds provided multi-year margin guidance out to FY27. Noting medium-term upside risk to pricing, the broker sees a significant opportunity for the Penfolds brand to regain its favoured position in China.

Outperform rating retained. The target slips to $13.60 from $13.80 after Macquarie assumes a higher risk-free rate, which trumps upgrades to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $1.17
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates provided an update on China with Morgan Stanley pointing to early signs of strong consumer demand following the company's re-entry into the market.

The company is expecting it to drive low double-digit earnings growth in FY25 and management reiterated its long-term earnings before interest and tax margin target of 45% for Penfolds from FY26/FY27, the broker notes.

Additionally, the analysts state a significant 2024 intake supports volume growth expectations for FY26 and FY27.

The analysts make minor upward adjustments to their FY25 earnings estimates. Overweight rating and the target price is raised to $14.60 from $14.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $2.17
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett explains pricing for Penfolds is subject to global forces, and as the brand remains strong in China, increasing demand has allowed for a pricing uptick. 

Pricing for Penfolds Bin and Icon is expected to rise by around 6% from FY25, aided by the lifting of import tariffs, notes the broker.

The earnings uplift is partly muted as Treasury Wine Estates had been circumventing some of the restrictions by supplying to China a Penfolds made in China and other country-of-origin wines not subject to tariffs.

Due to the time value of money, Ord Minnett's target for Treasury Wine Estates rises to $12 from $11.50. Hold.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Following the end of Chinese tariffs, Treasury Wine Estates has announced its plans for Penfolds (and its earnings outlook), which included ways to achieve a leading position in luxury wine in China.

Management also reiterated its existing FY24 guidance of mid-high single digit EBITS growth (ex DAOU), with an earnings (EBITS) contribution in the 2H of US$23-25m from DAOU.

The analyst retains a Buy rating as the company repositions to luxury, and because of ongoing Penfolds sales growth, with China providing a growth accelerant. The target slips to $14.50 from $15.00.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $2.07
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TYR as Buy (1) -

The analyst at Shaw and Partners believes the market is discounting too little earnings upside for Tyro Payments and views the medium term profit generation outlook as positive for the company.

The broker highlights the -15% decline in the share price post the 1H24 results and sees the potential for a recovering economy to support TTV growth and surcharging adoption driving gross margin expansion.

Shaw and Partners retains its earnings forecasts. Buy rating and $1.60 target retained. High Risk.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.62
If TYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 51.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VNT as Add (1) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

The Add rating and $4.05 target for Ventia Services are maintained.

The broker highlights the provision of essential services by Ventia predominantly to government (around 75% of revenue), with an average contract tenure of 5-7 years. These contracts mostly have direct inflation pass-through mechanisms for 95% of revenue.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.16
If VNT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VSL as Add (1) -

Given three takeovers in the Construction Materials sector on the ASX, Morgans looks across remaining companies under research coverage with a focus on relative peer multiples and underlying quality.

The review incorporates construction materials, building products, engineering, trade and distribution, and steel businesses.

Generally speaking, these companies offer more growth than many of the offshore businesses at a comparable multiple, notes the broker, which highlights the rationale for the recent takeovers. Worley, Vulcan Steel and Maas Group are the analysts' key picks.

The broker expects resurgent demand will restore historical volumes and prices for Add-rated Vulcan Steel. The $8.60 target is unchanged.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.81 Difference: $1.79
If VSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie slightly raises its oil/LNG price forecasts. The 2024 oil price estimate rises by 1.7% to around US$82/bbl, while LNG forecasts rise due to delays in capacity additions. 

Target prices, however, generally fall across the broker's oil and gas coverage due to EPS upgrades being offset by increases to risk-free-rates.

The Outperform rating and $32 target are retained for Woodside Energy.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $27.25 Difference: $4.75
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.80, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

The recent AlphaWise 2024 Household Survey by Morgan Stanley has given the analyst insights into consumer shopping intentions and resulted in a more upbeat view on the supermarkets.

The key takeaway is consumers will prioritise essentials and shift back to in-store shopping and price challenges, the broker states, with the results inferring a higher percentage of spending of household goods towards groceries.

On balance like-for-like sales are expected to be better than the analyst's previous forecasts for FY25.

Woolworths Group is viewed as the clear winner with this backdrop and replaces Coles Group ((COL)) as the preferred supermarket stock.

Morgan Stanley lifts the company's EPS forecasts by 3.2% for FY24 and 5.5% for FY25.

The target price is raised to $37 from $31 with an upgrade to Overweight from Underweight. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $33.00 Difference: $4
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.67, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources