Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AGL as Re-initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi has reinitiated coverage of AGL Energy after a gap of over four years with a Buy rating and $12 target price.

The broker notes the company is transforming to renewables from coal, and the capex incurred in building capacity is weighing on the free cash flow outlook. However, it is well-placed to benefit from growing price volatility in batteries and VPPs, and rising margins.

The broker expects headwinds around execution, coal exposure and re-contracting uncertainty to ease as strategic milestones are accomplished, thus de-risking the outlook.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $1.7
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.77, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APZ as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights the deleveraging of Aspen Group's balance sheet via an institutional placement ($70m), with a further $4m raised via an SPP at $2.90 per share, alongside the sale of a 13% stake in Eureka Group ((EGH)) at 50c per share.

Net debt has fallen to $92m, equating to around a 14% gearing level compared to the target between 30%-40%.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance of 16.7c with a 10c dividend while aiming for 10% EPS growth over the medium term, the broker explains.

Bell Potter lifts FY26 EPS estimate by 2%, with FY25 unchanged. Target raised to $3.90 from $3.05. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.45
If APZ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes Autosports Group has a new debt facility of $350m with existing lenders structured as a revolving credit facility.

The new facility marks an increase from $310m, but appears on better terms. The facility may also allow for the company to grow via M&A.

The broker notes a reduction in interest costs and the removal of an amortisation at $25m, which is expected to increase cash flow.

Neutral rated with a $1.80 target price.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.295 (current price is over target).
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of ASX's investor day on June 12, Citi lifted FY25-27 EPS forecasts by 2% on earnings impact from recent volatility and market volumes.

Focus will be on regulatory updates and cost management, and while the broker believes the new restructuring program is positive for cost control, the regulatory risk is the one to worry about.

Neutral. Target lifted to $71.20 from $68.50.

Target price is $71.20 Current Price is $72.94 Difference: minus $1.74 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.45, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Rio Tinto's part-owned Simandou high-grade iron ore project remains on track for full ramp-up by 2028. However, Guinea’s growing state intervention under a transitional government raises risks to timing, costs, and economics, suggest the analysts.

The broker outlines three scenarios ranging from an on-schedule ramp-up (base case) to increased fiscal demands or major disruption, with BHP Group and Fortescue seen as key beneficiaries if delays occur.

The Buy rating and $48.70 target are maintained for BHP Group.

Target price is $48.70 Current Price is $37.56 Difference: $11.14
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.87, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi sees Domino's Pizza Enterprises' leadership transition in Japan impacting the business in that market, leading to a lowering in its like-for-like sales and group margin forecasts.

The broker now expects 2H25 sales growth of 0.5% from 1.5% previously forecast, and 0.4% in FY26 from 2.0%.

Net profit for FY25/26/27 is forecast to drop -2%/-5%/-4%, respectively.

Neutral. Target cut to $23.82 from $31.82 on removal of 10% premium to the Australia/NZ business in the valuation, plus an increase in the discount applied to the Asia business.

Target price is $23.82 Current Price is $21.76 Difference: $2.06
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.95, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie notes Australia's seasonal conditions are mixed, with Northern and North East regions receiving above-average rainfall while South Australia and Western Victoria saw below-average rainfall.

The broker lifted Elders' FY25-29 EPS forecast by 3.5-4.0% on lower share count estimates, partly offset by higher interest expenses from Delta acquisition, and tax. The impact on EBIT is less than 1%.

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target price.

Current Price is $5.94. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Rio Tinto's part-owned Simandou high-grade iron ore project remains on track for full ramp-up by 2028. However, Guinea’s growing state intervention under a transitional government raises risks to timing, costs, and economics, suggest the analysts.

The broker outlines three scenarios ranging from an on-schedule ramp-up (base case) to increased fiscal demands or major disruption, with BHP Group and Fortescue seen as key beneficiaries if delays occur.

The Buy rating and $18.80 target are maintained for Fortescue.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $15.02 Difference: $3.78
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter details how the Abare June 2025 east coast crop forecast has come in better than expected, with the winter crop forecast at 27.2mt versus 27.1mt a year earlier.

The analyst points to strength in Victoria production, which is forecast to rise 8% on a year previously, which suggests a yield outcome of 9% growth annually if achieved.

Abare has also lifted the 2024–25 crop forecast to 4.7mt from 4.5mt, and normally the first 2025–26 forecast would be offered in the September report, the broker states.

Bell Potter continues to rate GrainCorp as a Hold with a higher target price of $7.85 from $7.45.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.28
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Australia's seasonal conditions are mixed, with Northern and North East regions receiving above-average rainfall while South Australia and Western Victoria saw below-average rainfall.

Among agri-exposed companies, the broker highlights GrainCorp is in a core net cash position, which supports growth and capital management optionality.

After previously assessing GrainCorp's 1H25 result as strong, Macquarie has lifted its FY25 EPS forecast by 4% on higher grain export estimates and faster progress on share buyback. FY26 EPS lifted by 1.4% on higher winter crop assumption following ABARES update.

Outperform. Target lifted to $9.00 from $8.95.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $1.43
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes ABARES’ initial 2025-26 winter crop forecast of 55.6mt includes an Eastern Cropping Area (ECA) crop of 27.2mt, down -15% year-on-year but still 19% above the 10-year average.

The broker highlights GrainCorp’s leverage to grain volumes, with the 27.2mt crop, if realised, expected to support another strong earnings result.

GrainCorp will retain all FY26 crop proceeds due to the Crop Protection Contract reaching its cumulative limit, effectively boosting earnings by $70m versus a similar-sized prior crop, explains the analyst.

No changes have been made to the broker's  FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts, which remains at $311.2m, though Ord Minnett sees upside risk should the crop outlook hold.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and a $9.75 target price.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $2.18
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS upgrades its 2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecast for GrainCorp by 18% to $330m, based on ABARES’ east coast crop estimate of 27.2mt and the broker’s own revised assumption of 30mt.

This implies upside versus consensus of $309-314m, though the analysts see limited further uplift given soft global grain and canola margins unless supply tightens.

Strong net cash and a capital return program including an attractive dividend yield and $75m buyback offer support, offset by capex of -$160-180m and weaker margin outlook, outlines UBS.

UBS lowers the target price to $7.95 from $8.60 after reducing 2027-28 forecasts by -3-5% and modeling long-term earnings -13-16% below GrainCorp’s through-the-cycle guidance. The broker's rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.38
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes IDP Education has experienced a decline in volumes in May/June due to negative commentary around student immigration.

THe above has resulted in a downgrade in FY25 adjusted earnings before interest and tax to $115m–$125m, down -30%/-28% against the broker's estimate and consensus at the midpoint, respectively.

Student placements look set to be down -28% to -30% in FY25, with a lack of improved sentiment post-elections in Canada, Australia, and the UK, affected by post-work right visas and US restrictions.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -33%, -48%, and -45% for FY25 through to FY27 following the trading update.

Target price falls to $6.40 from $16. Outperform rating remains, with the analyst confident the company can achieve double-digit growth with potential for cost-out improvements.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $2.52
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IEL as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

IDP Education downgraded FY25 student placement volumes following a very weak May/June pipeline build, which are its key months for intake in the UK, Canada and the US, and for the second semester in Australia.

The company cited heightened policy uncertainty in all the countries as a reason.

Morgan Stanley reckons the key debates going forward centre around the extent to which the May/June volumes will impact FY26, the company's ability to increase fees to offset volumes, cost management and potential for broad-based recovery beyond FY26.

The broker cut FY26-27 EBIT forecasts by around -50%.

Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target cut $4.25 from $17.95. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.37
If IEL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

IDP Education’s FY25 earnings guidance has been cut sharply, with 2H25 earnings (EBIT) expected around $27m, well below the previously guided greater than $77m, notes Morgans.

Global policy tightening and weak student placement volumes are weighing, explains the broker.

The analysts note FY25 Student Placement and IELTS volumes are expected to fall -28-30% and -18-20% year-on-year respectively, with Canada particularly soft and UK uncertainty potentially crimping the critical October intake.

A cost review is underway and China IELTS approval remains a potential earnings lever, notes the broker.

Morgans downgrades FY25-27 EPS forecasts by -35% to -47%. Downgrade to Hold from Buy and target reduced to $4.15 from $13.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.27
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IEL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

IDP Education expects FY25 language testing volumes to decline -18-20% and student placement volumes to fall -28-30% year-on-year, significantly weaker than previously assumed, highlights Ord Minnett.

Ord Minnett notes a rapid deterioration in trading since early May, particularly in Australia, where visa applications are now seen as a more accurate lead indicator.

FY25 guidance implies to the analyst second-half earnings (EBIT) of $27m at the mid-point, a steep drop from earlier quasi-guidance of above $77m.

The broker's EPS forecasts are reduced by -34%, -54% and -40% for FY25-27, and long-term volume assumptions have been lowered due to heightened policy uncertainty.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy and cuts the target price to $8.00 from $15.50.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $4.12
If IEL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IEL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades IDP Education to Buy from Neutral with a revised target price of $4.95 from $12. The analyst believes the company is a quality business despite losing some market share in yesterday's trading update and earnings downgrade.

Management's FY25 earnings before interest and tax guidance at $115m–$125m is below the analyst's forecast by -30% at the midpoint and compares to consensus at $171m.

IDP flagged a decline in FY25 volumes by -28% to -30% year-on-year for student placement and down -18% to -20% for language testing.

Overhead costs in 2H25 are expected to fall by -5% on a year earlier. UBS flags annual visa issuance growth down -10% for Australia, -9% for the UK, -65% for Canada, and down -27% for the US.

UBS believes the current trading conditions are closer to a trough and is forecasting a "conservative" recovery in FY27/FY28.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $1.07
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Insignia Financial to Buy from Neutral, raising the target price to $4.50 from $4.00, following a -28% decline in the share price since March 7, when the board granted due diligence access to Bain and CC Capital.

Bain has since withdrawn, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.

The market appears to have lost confidence in a deal materialising; however, the company stated CC Capital is continuing to "actively work towards making a binding bid for the company".

The broker notes a floor price of $5 was set by the board. The analyst has increased EPS forecasts by 3.5% for FY25 and 28% for FY26, reversing prior mark-to-market downgrades stemming from the April market decline.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $1.02
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Judo Capital to Outperform from Neutral with a $1.75 target price from $1.70 post the investor day where management confirmed FY25 and FY26 guidance and pointed to an acceleration in book growth.

Judo advanced the loan book by around $12m in May, which tempered concerns FY25 targets could not be achieved, while recent headwinds have been subsiding. The broker also notes an improvement in funding spreads with repriced deposits.

Macquarie has a higher level of confidence in near-term margins and earnings, raising EPS estimates by 1% in FY25, 4% in FY26, and 3% in FY27.

Judo Capital is expected to announce FY25 results on August 19.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.285
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Management at Judo Capital has reiterated FY25 guidance for 15% profit growth and a 3.0% exit net interest margin (NIM), while lowering its cost-to-income ratio through tighter cost control.

The company's investor day was generally positive but the broker notes ongoing concerns around flat loan book growth, despite the company’s $2.5bn annual growth target.

Management attributes the stagnation to run-off from unprofitable covid-era loans, now largely complete.

The broker sees value in the stock but believes Judo must improve its investor communication to build conviction, particularly given its discretionary status in portfolios.

Ord Minnett makes no changes to EPS forecasts, maintains a Buy rating and retains the $2.20 target price.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.735
If JDO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JDO as Buy (1) -

At the investor day, Judo Capital outlined an estimated total addressable market for SME lending to $814bn, a rise of $209bn from 2021.

UBS notes the growth is underscored by expansion in credit availability as well as a move into agribusiness lending, an additional $39bn, and warehouse lending at $34bn.

Management introduced two new deposit products, with the High Interest Online Savings Account looking at a total addressable market of $1trn excluding term deposits.

UBS points to Judo being able to generate around a three-year 30% compound average growth rate in EPS.

Buy rating retained with $2.20 target price.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.735
If JDO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights fibre cement gained 90bps of primary wall share in 2024 (according to the The US Census Bureau) led by 350bps gains in the South, the largest regional housing market.

Vinyl gained 250bps year-on-year, particularly in the Northeast and West, aided by affordability and easing supply chains, explains the analyst.

Overall, the broker sees the pivot to new construction as supporting volume growth amid a weaker R&R backdrop. Softness in the Northeast and West signals the need for further share recovery to support long-term brand positioning for James Hardie Industries.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating, given a challenging near-term macro backdrop, and a $39.80 target price.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $36.71 Difference: $3.09
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

The US Census Bureau's annual new housing characteristics data for 2024 showed a 1.2ppt increase in share for fiber cement to 23% and a 2.9ppt increase for vinyl to 27%.

Morgan Stanley notes fiber cement and stucco made the most significant gains in market share over the last decade, and its bull case for James Hardie Industries is based on fiber cement's share growing to 35% by FY30.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $53.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $36.71 Difference: $16.29
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LGI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water's exposure draft for a revised landfill gas carbon credits method is positive for LGI.

The broker notes the company's current portfolio averages a 37% baseline, leaving it well-placed to meet the proposed 37-39% rule and giving it a clear edge over competitors who are closer to 0-24%.

That a high proportion of the company's FY25-27 forecast carbon credits are locked under the prior rules is also positive for near-term revenue visibility, the broker highlights.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.7
If LGI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

Lovisa Holdings opened its second store in Beijing, 17 months after opening the first China store in Guangzo.

Citi visited the store and was not impressed by its location on the third floor of a mall with a large presence of luxury brands, as it means less foot traffic.

The broker thinks one possibility is the company is testing how its format resonates with consumers across different cities in China.

Sell. Target unchanged at $25.86.

The broker remains concerned about the quality of recently opened stores, with CEO change this month also adding to uncertainty.

Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $29.33 Difference: minus $3.47 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.68, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi analysed UK demographic data in the areas within a 30-minute drive from each of the 20 Nick Scali/Fabb Furniture stores in the UK.  

The broker's conclusion is a handful of the stores may not be positioned in locations considered to be mid to upper end.

At the same time, the analyst acknowledges location in a key large-scale retail centre is more important than a location per se, given the low frequency of purchases.

Overall, the broker is positive on the near-term UK outlook. Buy. Target unchanged at $20.64.

Target price is $20.64 Current Price is $19.22 Difference: $1.42
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.35, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Australia's seasonal conditions are mixed, with Northern and North East regions receiving above-average rainfall while South Australia and Western Victoria saw below-average rainfall.

The broker notes Nufarm is more exposed to the downcycle across agriculture stocks due to its weak balance sheet. The review into the seeds technology business is expected to most likely result in a trade sale..

The broker is now forecasting -23% EBIT growth in FY25.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.95
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 50.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PNC as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Westpac ((WBC)) is the only big four bank not selling aged debt, and if it resumed selling, it would add $50m to the current estimated market size of $400m.

The broker estimates Pioneer Credit could potentially get 50% of Westpac's aged debt, and each $10m of additional debt in FY27 could add $3-4m to net profit starting in FY28.

The broker stressed there is no certainty Westpac will sell aged debt.

Buy. Target unchanged at 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.31
If PNC meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans notes Rio Tinto's part-owned Simandou high-grade iron ore project remains on track for full ramp-up by 2028.

However, Guinea’s growing state intervention under a transitional government raises risks to timing, costs, and economics, suggest the analysts.

The broker outlines three scenarios ranging from an on-schedule ramp-up (base case) to increased fiscal demands or major disruption, with BHP Group and Fortescue seen as key beneficiaries if delays occur.

Rio Tinto’s exposure is mixed, explains the broker, as its Simandou stake is offset by potential pricing pressure on Pilbara earnings.

Morgans maintains an "Accumulate on weakness" rating with a $119 target, down from $123.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $110.02 Difference: $8.98
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.58, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates announced one of its US distributors Republic National Distributing Company will cease operations in California. 

While distribution changes do happen, in this instance, Citi sees some risk to FY26 earnings.

This is due to the distributor's high 25% California contribution to the company's Americas sales in 1H25, and the uncertainty it poses for other states.

Neutral. Target cut to $8.68 from $10.50.

Target price is $8.68 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0.54
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates lowers FY25 EBITS guidance to $770m from $780m though Morgans notes new guidance is still marginally above the consensus forecast.

The broker attributes the downgrade to weaker US Premium wine sales, particularly 19 Crimes below US$15 per bottle, though Luxury portfolios such as Penfolds appear to be tracking to plan.

Management will restructure operations into a new Global Premium division from FY26, offering clearer visibility on Treasury Americas' luxury growth and margin profile, suggest the analysts.

The recent distributor exit from California, the company's largest US market, is expected to cause short-term disruption in FY26.

Morgans lowers its target to $11.06 from $13.43. Buy.

Target price is $11.06 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $2.92
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Management at Treasury Wine Estates has revised down FY25 earnings growth guidance due to weaker US wine sales, particularly below the US$15 price point, amid economic uncertainty, explains Ord Minnett.

The broker was unsurprised by the downgrade, noting expectations were already adjusted in line with the updated figures.

The withdrawal of key distributor RNDC from California will not impact FY25 results but is expected to weigh on FY26 performance for the Americas division, highlights the analyst, especially if RNDC exits additional states.

The broker believes securing robust distribution partnerships will be a key priority for incoming CEO Sam Fischer.

Ord Minnett makes no changes to EPS forecasts, maintains a Hold rating and retains the $9.50 target price.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $1.36
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates has downgraded FY25 earnings before interest and tax guidance to $770m from $780m–$810m, which is below UBS' estimate and meets consensus forecast due to lower Premium brands.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -1.5% and -5.6% for FY25/FY26, resulting from reduced earnings from Americas and slightly lower Penfolds contribution.

Target price slips to $12 from $14 with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $3.86
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources